Lex Money offers a sober assessment of ICP’s market structure, correctly identifying that its locked supply dynamics necessitate a patient accumulation strategy over short-term speculation. This technical breakdown provides a disciplined roadmap for navigating the asset's long-term value recovery.
Deep Dive
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Deep Dive
ICP = THE BEST SCENARIO FOR 2026Added:
All right, boys, what's up? Welcome back to the show. It's your boy Lex money.
Today, I thought we would do a quick ICP Z update. But, to start off, okay, it's going to be a super quick update, by the way, today, guys, because my throat is still It's still absolutely killing me.
How I see BTC moving in the next month from Symbio here, and I kind of see it very similarly, okay? We just tested the monthly imbalance, which is the strongest point of interest for shorts.
This is the exact zone where price was accumulated over the last 1.5 months.
From here, we could see a more aggressive dump. And what you're going to see is when we were going up to around that 100k mark, um we had that sort of like fake rally um to I think it was just under 100k. It was like 98k. We saw a lot of people start to enter in long there, only for us to have an aggressive dump. And it looks like we're doing the same thing, right? We're having that fake rally to the mid-80s, only for us to dump back down, maybe in the coming months, to the 60s or low 60s to high 50s, guys. Now, one thing that does make me feel good about ICP is the fact that almost half of all ICP is locked up in neurons. Um we could see this number rise to as high as 60% in the future. You can see TVL here is at half a billion. And with Mission 70 well underway, hopefully, we won't get diluted too much in the rest of this bear market, guys, okay? Going into the early bull market of next year.
And I know there's a lot of you guys who kind of want me to say, you know, we're going to get a shorter bear market, and you know, the the bear market is finished. We're We're going to uh this time's going to be different, right? Uh you know, as a crypto creator, a shorter bear market benefits me more than it benefits the most of people in the market, right? Because in a bull market, I'm going to get more people, more sponsorships, more people watching the channel, right? Just overall better vibes on the channel. But, I'm not here to spread hopium, guys, and I'm pretty sure everything stays exactly the same way it always does, guys, okay? So, this is probably what's going to happen. now.
We've rejected off the 200 MA at 78k.
We'll have a look at where our short is sitting in a minute. And remember, if you want to go and short, you can go and check out Weex. Is if you do want to be taking advantage of this next volatility spike, then you can go and trade crypto with zero fees on Weex. So, you can actually trade crypto futures markets, gold, you've got TradFi on here as well.
They have earn, and then they also do have promotions if you go and use the link in the description. You can unwrap up to 30k in welcome bonuses. They got TradFi bonuses here. You got the clarity X spot challenge, which has currently 1 week left. They have trade to earn challenges here as well. And they're going to be increasing the amount of challenges that do go on throughout the year. So, it's definitely worthwhile checking out Weex if you do want to take advantage of this next move. And then lastly, before we do get into our charts, I also wanted to cover this, right? USDT got rejected at its trend line or USDT dominance got rejected.
Um the market cap sitting at around 190 billion. If it starts to decline, billions in sideline liquidity will flow into Bitcoin and alts. That is just not how it happens. And this Ash Crypto man is so hit and miss cuz sometimes he puts out good stuff, other times he puts out a bunch of BS like this. Just because USDT dominance starts to decline doesn't mean it's going into altcoins. Doesn't even [snorts] necessarily mean that it's going into Bitcoin, guys. It could be people like taking out their USDT and putting it in their bank as cold hard cash, okay? A lot of people start to do that in the bear market cuz they get worried. Like every bear market, USDT is going to zero. Um we've seen some other stablecoins go to zero, so it wouldn't surprise me if people are starting to do that, right? And they're just waiting in the sidelines. Not everyone wants to have stablecoins in their wallets, okay?
So, yes, in a bull market, this usually is a good indication that we are getting rotation into Bitcoin and alts. But in a bear market, we can't really say that, guys, okay? So, we come over to our Bitcoin chart. And so far, so good, right? Nothing has changed from my thesis. We're still in this short. We shorted this trend line breakdown here with a stop at around 83k.
Currently, we've been in this position for about 4 days now. Currently, we're up 22%, so not bad at all. Still targeting this white line here and then this range low at 65k.
So, this whole move here is going to be around 180% return on our investment or on our short, which can then be rolled into Bitcoin or whatever altcoins we want to roll it into at that point, guys. All right? And when we check out ICP, again, still I mean this is the Coinbase chart, right? Still in the monthly, I'm expecting us to go down to this $2, right at this range low. I don't know why it says $2.6 here, but the right at the bottom is is $2. Okay, we can even call it $1.97.
Um I think we're just going to be in this chop zone. Like if by some miracle ICP has one of these fake pumps, I reckon the only that that highest it's going to go is around $6. I don't even think it's going to $6 anytime soon, guys. Okay? So, if we went to the weekly, then we can look at this and we can say we're under a broader downtrend now.
In this major downtrend, and we can say something like this, right? Or even if we don't use the wicks, let's not use the wicks. We can just say without the wicks, right? If we're going to get another pump for ICP, it shouldn't take us anywhere past like at this point $4.9 or $4.90. Okay? So, for ICP, we just got to stay patient, guys. There's actually nothing going on. If we check out like what the traders are doing, we can go check out the order block detector, then yeah, exactly where we'd be expecting resistance. They're starting to stack in their cells. If by some miracle we broke out above it, then we're not going to get above this level here at like $6 all the way to this upper trend line at $10, guys. Okay? So, ICP is just like one of those patience games, right? If you want to hold on, you can, but what we should be doing in this time is trying to make as much money as possible to then reaccumulate into the bear market, right? This is why I make these videos all the time, even when it like nothing's going on, because this is where the money is made, right? Stacking in the bear market, not trying to buy into the bull market. So, again, let me know how you're feeling about the current price action. If you made it this far, you know what to do, like the video and subscribe. I'm going to see you in the next one. Peace.
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