Secret SIP Trick that will make you reach 10 Cr Faster!

本站添加: 2026-05-19

[00:00:00]In hindsight, every investor remembers that one dip. [snorts] The one that they didn't buy.

[00:00:05]>> [music] >> They remember having cash with them for this exact moment and yet decided not to put in that cash thinking, [music] "Let's wait a bit more." But in some time, the markets bounced back. Then it felt like a missed opportunity. Now to tackle this in 2019, the concept of smart SIP [music] was introduced in the market. To put it simply, in smart SIP, when your SIP amount reaches the fund manager, they hold a part of it as cash on your behalf waiting for dips [music] and then deploying it when the market goes down. On the surface, this sounds like an intelligent approach to solve the problem of capturing the bear market. But what if the dip never comes and your money is sitting ideal for maybe 5 months or worse, 7 months or [music] even a year? In that year, your money is being eaten up by inflation.

[00:00:48]And that nullifies any gains you got over the same period. Still, there's a group of people who believe that smart SIP is a good option and should invest through them.

[00:00:57]>> [music] >> Now that raises a question. Which one gives more returns? A normal SIP or a smart SIP? So in this video, from a very neutral point of view, we have tried to answer this question that which one gives more return. And guys, one more thing to remember about this video, while [music] we share all the calculation of all the three scenarios, what is very important for you to know is we have actually taken real market data and real returns of the past. So we have taken this from about 2005 to 2025.

[00:01:26]So we have taken this actual 20 year real data of the markets for you to understand what works better. Scenario one, investor who does regular SIP.

[00:01:36]Let's start with an Indian investor who already knows everything known industry wide. He understands [music] the market, has heard every argument around timing the market and tactics to optimize [music] returns. He tracks his portfolio regularly, but after going through all of it, he still makes a very simple decision that I'll stick to the normal SIP that I'm doing for so long. No tactics, no experiments, but just [music] a clean boring system that I can stick to for decades. Now, every month on the first working day, he deploys 20,000 into the market. No matter what is happening, when markets are up, he invests. [music] When markets are crashing, he still invests. No SIP pause, no holding cash or later, just doing investing >> [music] >> consistently. And this is what happens.

[00:02:18]Now, over 20 years, he ends up investing around 48 lakhs in total, [music] and the portfolio grows to roughly 1.85 CR.

[00:02:25]Now, this is not because he outsmarted the market or he timed anything perfectly. It was simply because he stayed in the game long enough. But living through this journey doesn't feel as clean as the final number looks.

[00:02:37][music] There are very clear long phases where nothing seems to happen. The first 5 to 7 years feel extremely [music] slow. Growth is there, but it doesn't really excite you. Instead, it will test your patience. But suddenly, the last 5 to 7 years changed [music] everything.

[00:02:52]The portfolio starts compounding aggressively. The curve starts to bend into a hockey stick, and most of the wealth gets created here towards the end, and not in the [music] beginning.

[00:03:01]And even though this looks like an ideal outcome, it does put some stress on investors' mind while the markets are going through a bad phase.

[00:03:09]>> [music] >> Because even after 15 years of investing, the portfolio may still fall multiple times with sharper drawdowns [music] and periods where gains disappear quickly. These are the moments where it feels like all the discipline is going [music] nowhere. That is where most investors start questioning their boring strategy. [music] So, if you're someone who's a fan of regular SIP and wants to do this, now this is what you need to be very mindful of. You're not avoiding risk, but choosing a different kind of risk. The risk [music] of staying consistent when nothing seems to work, and the risk of sitting through volatility without reacting, [music] along with the patience to wait years before compounding actually shows up.

[00:03:47]Because a regular SIP may sound simple, but it is not easy. Which brings us to the real question. If you already know how markets behave, can you actually do better than this by being a little more tactical? Now, which brings us to our scenario two, investor who does the smart SIP. Now, consider another investor with the same awareness, same access to information. He understands SIPs, but he also believes he can be a little smarter with execution. So, he [music] starts doing smart SIP where instead of putting the full 20,000 every month into the market, he splits it.

[00:04:20]If 10,000 goes in like a regular SIP, the other 10,000 basically sits aside as cash waiting. The plan is simple, if markets will fall, he will deploy the cash in one go. If not, he keeps on accumulating it. Now, month after month, this keeps on building. 10,000 invested is 10,000 saved. Then one day, markets fall 10%. Now, he deploys everything he has been holding, which feels logical.

[00:04:43]Buy more when prices are cheaper, avoid putting all money at high, stay patient and act when opportunity [music] comes.

[00:04:49]Now, for 20 years, we put this in three scenarios. First, deploy cash when markets fall at 5%. Second, wait for 10% or third to be even more patient and wait for 15% kind of corrections.

[00:05:00][music] The intent remains the same, be tactical and improve returns by timing entries [music] better than a plain SIP. Now, here comes the interesting part, which might actually shock you. When we compared the final outcomes of the regular SIP, which ended at 1.85 [music] CR like we discussed in the previous chapter, the smart SIP with 5% correction reached about 1.82 CR. In 10% correction, again around 1.82 CR.

[00:05:28]And with 15% correction, you should be ready for this, it drops further to nearly 1.78 CR.

[00:05:34]>> [music] >> So, at first glance, this feels counterintuitive, right? You're investing during falls and being patient, still results are not improving.

[00:05:42]>> [music] >> In fact, they're slightly worse. The reason starts becoming clear when you live through this strategy. For long periods, markets don't fall meaningfully. They naturally keep trending upwards while during those phases a part of your money just sits idle. It does not compound when you're waiting for the dip that either comes late or comes after when markets have already moved higher. So, even when you deploy, you're not really buying cheap relatively to where you started. But, there is also a behavior challenge here.

[00:06:10]>> [music] >> See, holding cash sounds easy in theory, but in reality it is going to test you.

[00:06:14]When [music] markets keep on rising and you feel left out and when they fall, you hesitate. And the deeper the correction you wait for, the harder it becomes to actually deploy large amounts. And we didn't stop here. We went a little further just over the 20-year period because outcomes depend heavily on when you start.

[00:06:32]So, we broke this into multiple 10-year rolling period because the rolling returns more of a realistic [music] kind of a scenario on the returns you've gained. So, different entry points, but same strategies. Now, across periods like 2005 to 2015, 2010 to 2020, or even 2014 to 2024, the pattern stayed consistent. Regular SIP kept coming out slightly ahead. Whether you waited for 5% dips, 10%, or even 15%, smart SIP never clearly outperformed.

[00:07:00]Not even once in a meaningful way.

[00:07:02]>> [music] >> And the gap widens when you wait for deeper corrections just because more money stays out of the market for a longer period of time. Now, what this tells us is not that smart SIPs are actually wrong. It tells us that markets spend more time going up than going down.

[00:07:16]>> [music] >> And in that environment, being fully invested matters more than being perfectly timed. To give you an example, a lot of times what happens and I do believe you must have experienced this, it becomes really hard for people to put in money when the markets are going up.

[00:07:31]So, you kind of, let's say, started with a bull run which is currently at 10%, but let's say there is another 20% rally waiting. Now, your mind basically He a blocker that am I investing at an all-time high or let's say will I really gain some better returns out here? And that is where you will actually lose out on the ball. And that is where you actually lose out on the potential bull run and your money is basically sitting ideal where you were actually trying to time the bottom. Now, I hope this was clear. Now, let's jump to scenario three.

[00:08:00]>> [music] >> Investor increasing investment during drawdowns and rallies. Now, here's where things get actually interesting. After seeing both approaches, there's a third investor who looks at this differently.

[00:08:11][music] He agrees with the idea of buying more during the dips, but he also sees the flaw in smart SIP. Holding back part of your monthly SIP just to wait for correction means that some money is always sitting idle. And over long periods, that idle money quietly hurts compound. So, he makes a small shift. He keeps his 20,000 SIP exactly the same, fully invested >> [music] >> every month, no compromise, but instead of playing with this amount, he decides [music] to act only with extra cash when opportunities show up.

[00:08:40]Now, whenever markets fall 5%, he adds a small extra amount, say 5,000. If markets fall 10%, he adds another 5,000.

[00:08:47]If markets fall by 15% or more, he adds even more.

[00:08:51]The deeper the fall, the more aggressive he becomes. But the base SIP continues to be untouched. Now, over 20 years, this extra investment adds up to roughly 3.5 lakhs. Not a huge number compared to the total SIP, but the impact is actually meaningful. The final portfolio value moves from around 1.85 CR in regular SIP to nearly 2.02 CR. Now, the difference here is important. He's not waiting to invest, he's already fully invested.

[00:09:18]>> [music] >> So, he captures the full upside when markets rise and during crashes like 2008 or like the COVID fall, he ends up buying more units at lower prices using fresh capital. Now, this is where the edge comes from. [music] We also tested another variation. Instead of only reacting to falls, what if he leans into strength? Every quarter he checks one simple [music] signal. If markets are above their 200-day moving average, he basically increases his SIP by 20% [music] from 20,000 to 24,000. If markets weaken, it goes back to normal.

[00:09:49]Over the period of time, this adds about another 7.2 lakhs of extra [music] investment, and the final portfolio reaches around 2.07 CR, even higher than the dip-based approach. So, what is happening here? In both the cases, the base principle stays intact.

[00:10:03]>> [music] >> It stays fully invested and then layer this tactic on top using additional money and not by holding them. Because the moment you stop your core SIP from compounding, start fighting the market's natural upward bias. But when you add on top of it during fear or during strength, you are simply amplifying what already works. Now, the ultimate comparison. Now, step back and look at all the three scenarios together.

[00:10:26]Think of the three investors, same 20,000 per month, same 20-year journey, total investment 48 lakhs and a bit extra. [music] The only difference is timing. The first one is extremely disciplined. He simply shows up every month. No questions asked, no timing [music] games. The second one is a bit tactical. Every now and then, he would find a month where he would invest the cash and he set aside perfect exit. The third one puts up and over the SIP amount that he has decided.

[00:10:51][music] And now, after 20 years, the disciplined investor reaches around 1.85 CR. [music] The smart SIP investor reaches about 1.78 to 1.82. And the one who invested more than this [music] monthly SIP during the dips and rallies ended up with nearly 2.02 to 2.07 CR. Now, connect this with what we saw earlier.

[00:11:10]The regular SIP worked because it kept you fully invested. The smart SIP struggled because part of your money stayed idle.

[00:11:18]And the third approach worked better because it added more and more during opportunities without interrupting the core SIP, which essentially means you didn't interrupt the core compounding.

[00:11:30]But the bigger takeaway is that's above all of this. Wealth here was not created by timing perfectly. It was created by staying consistent through cycles, crashes, long and boring phases where nothing seemed to happen. Yes, you can choose to optimize at the edges, add more during the falls, increase during strong trends, but these are small improvements, my friends.

[00:11:50]>> [music] >> Because at the end of the day, what really matters more is that the game of long-term investing is really simple.

[00:11:55][music] Start your SIP, continue your SIP, and stay invested. Because over longer periods, discipline quietly does what timing [music] rarely can. I hope this analysis did give you some insight about the approach on normal SIP versus [music] buy-on-dip SIP. If you like this one, do subscribe to Aspero for more such videos.