The Damage Has Been Done, Is This What Comes Next?

Ajouté : 2026-05-10

[00:00:00]for the world economy, for the United States economy, the damage that has been done in the Middle East through the Iran war, hey, it's already happened and it's about to get a lot worse.

[00:00:18]Hello everyone, I am Dr. Dr. Chris Martson, founder of peakrossperity.com and creator of the crash course, which is both a viral video series and a best-selling book that connects the energy economy and the environment. I'm your information scout. I separate fact from fiction. Let's get started. Let's begin here. I'm claiming that the economic damage has already been done.

[00:00:39]We're just waiting to see how bad it's going to be. So, what do I mean by that?

[00:00:43]Well, even in Reuters at this point, this article from May 6th, they are saying that the oil supply shock is set to worsen as inventories fall further even if the conflict ends. Here's the important point. Even if the conflict ends, there's all this damage in the Gulf which has led to a reduction in energy and energy product output as well as other things. Things like helium, aluminum, sulfur, sulfuric acid, etc. Each of those a crisis all on its own.

[00:01:09]Put them together, you've got a big mess. Now, that mess is going to take a long time to unravel. As they say here in this Reuters report, oil inventories and emergency reserves are already rapidly depleting. It raises the risk of supply shortages, which is a fancy way of saying super expensive energy price spikes. Executives all over the place, we've got oil executives, we've got analysts, we've got major banks, all warning the same thing that the full impact of the straight of closure is not yet been felt. it's coming and there's lag effects. Okay, we've talked about those before. Analysts are now expecting higher prices and volatility, both of which are ways of saying uh prices are going to go a lot higher and they may spike up and seasonal demand is about to rise. The summer driving season is coming. And what else we got going on?

[00:01:59]Well, buffers are fading. What buffers in the United States? Those buffers happen to be inventories. We have two kinds of inventories. Commercial inventories and strategic inventories.

[00:02:09]the strategic petroleum reserve. I call it the strategic political reserve because it is being released not strategically for petroleum reasons but for political reasons. Just this past week more huge draws of inventories reported by the United States. I think these numbers are going to have to be revised upwards. I think somebody was patting them a little bit on the government side. Just an idea. So 2 million barrels of crude out the window.

[00:02:35]2 and a.5 million barrels of gasoline out the window. Distillates, which is diesel fuel, another 1.3 million barrels out the window. Gone. Cushing, which is one of our main repositories for commercial supplies, down 648,000 barrels there. And um we have uh SPR is down another 5.2 million barrels.

[00:02:56]Production actually no more production coming out of the ground. It's actually minus3,000 barrels per day. This is what that looks like when we're looking at 10 years of data. Full 10 years of data. And here's 2026 and it is plummeting down and is now just this last week just poked right below this. So it is now the lowest it's been in 10 years. Gasoline inventories in the United States the lowest they've been in 10 years. Now why is your gas prices going up? Why do you see $429, $449, $5 depending on where you live 7 if you're in California. Why do you see those prices? Because our inventories are dwindling. Why are inventories dwindling? Because we're sending them all over the world. Why are we sending them all over the world? because we've set the price too low in the United States. Somebody is monkeying with our oil market, making the price low. When prices are low, demand stays high. The only way you make demand meet supply is you let prices rise. But we're not allowing that. So, a lot of people are commenting about this. This is uh the Carile Group. Think what you will of them, I know I have my own opinions, but Carile's Jeff Curry says this recently on a very well publicized interview.

[00:04:04]>> When do storage tanks run empty? um you're parts of the world like Australia, Philippines, Thailand, you are, but the question is when and where.

[00:04:13]Um you know, I I still say that with you, you know, it's going to be, you know, sometime the month of May that you're going to end up with um Europe hitting um you know, tank bottoms. And in the US, it's somewhere in that July 4th time period, if not sooner. By the way, the inventories number coming out of the US, the ones we got last night, the ones last week, I've never seen anything like that before. And I think that it's important to remember that these inventory numbers um let's define terms a deficit versus a shortage. We have a deficit today, meaning that demand is above supply and we're drawing inventories. It's not a shortage yet. So to answer your question, you have the shortages in places like um you know, Asia, and it's not that bad yet um because you're not completely at tank bottoms. Uh but in places like Europe and the United States, you're in a deficit and you don't hit the shortages until you hit tank bottoms.

[00:05:07]>> Tank bottoms. That's what we're heading towards and we're actually screaming towards it at this point in time. So every single day that the straight remains closed, it just compounds. But even if the straight opens up tonight, it's going to be months, if not a year, before full flows are are restored. And during every one of those months, we're going to be seeing those tanks bottoms get closer and closer as we draw our inventories down.

[00:05:30]>> Now, the other ticking clock in the story, of course, would be Trump's approval ratings. And, you know, make make a listen, all polls are a little bit suspect, but Trump pays attention to them. So, look at this. These two right here, the yellow and the blue, that's cost of living approval in the tank, gas prices approval in the tank, uh, and heading down fast. And those two numbers are going to drag his other numbers down. Trump cares about that a lot. Now, we hear a lot about oil in this story and because of gas prices. But there's another gas in this story and that would be liqufied natural gas. And on that front, LNG shipped approximately 10 million tons less than it normally would during April. So, you see that little red box right there? That's the most recent reading. It just came in at just about 33 million barrels, uh, sorry, 33 million tons shipped. Now, let's put that in context. This is a very seasonal number. So we should compare April to April. So we are now comparing the April number there to the April of 2024 and April of 2025. You can see that April of 2025 is higher than April of 2024.

[00:06:35]That's the series we've been shipping.

[00:06:37]We the world has been shipping more and more liqufied natural gas. It's used in all kinds of processes from making fertilizer to electricity, industrial processes, you name it. Very vital substance. And if we look at this, we say, "Wow, here's where we came in down here. This is obviously heading the wrong direction. It should be going this way." Where would it have been if it had been following that same green arrow? It would have been up here somewhere in the 43 million tons rangeish. And so we could say, "Wow, we're missing about 10 million tons of LG not shipped." Now, you heard Jeff Curry say, "Hey, we've got supply here, but demand is here. How do you get supply and demand in line?

[00:07:18]Really, there's only one way to get those two things in line, and that's prices. Prices have to rise to a level so that demand gets pinched off. You make the decision not to drive to the store, you decide not to take the vacation, somebody decides not to ship that inferior product all over across the country in a diesel truck. Whatever the decisions are, prices are the way those decisions get met. Somebody is monkeying around with our prices and setting them too low, which is keeping demand too high. And that's why our inventories are disappearing. And eventually that results in a big disaster in the US market for prices. So let's look at our history here. So in 2022 we had very high prices. You see during the context of the start of the Russian aggression in Ukraine, that Ukraine war with Russia, we have prices spiked to 120 a barrel and they were up there for a long time, higher than they are even in this war. And during that 2022 time frame in yellow, we see that well demand kicked back a little bit but then kept up and fundamentally demand in 2022 went up and then in 2023 it continued going up. Why? Why did demand continue going up in 2023? Because oil is an awesome awesome substance and prices went down. Prices and demand prices and demand. That's a relationship and they're not allowing that to happen.

[00:08:36]You can see here they've been keeping the prices heavily contained. As I woke up this morning, it was in the low 90s here in the United States, way too low.

[00:08:44]So, we're going to ship a lot of our product to the rest of the world, which is going to say, "Hey, I'll buy that."

[00:08:49]And then you know what happens later on?

[00:08:52]Our prices go through the roof in the United States. This is the situation.

[00:08:56]This is where we are right now. It's a ticking clock as well. You may you might say, well, how is smashing the oil price connected to this? This is the Cosby index which is South Korea's stock market. It's like saying the Dow or the S&P in Korea on South Korea. How is it what even is that? And I'm going to explain this for my subscribers. There are three possibilities to understand what's going on out there in equity financial markets right now. One, it's just a bubble and that's okay. Two, it's an engineered crash that's about to come our way. Or three, big money is fleeing government money and we're going to have to talk about that.

[00:09:34]All right, there is a lot more to this story. All of it back at peakrossperity.com in the full premium fatpipe I put out twice a week, which is a piece of content along with two to three other pieces of premium content like the second part of this report. All of it designed to make you smarter and help you make better decisions. That's what this is all about. If you have wealth to protect and you understand the power of accurate information, then you absolutely need and deserve full access to my reports. Thank you very much for listening. I'll be back shortly with more content for you as the situation unfolds. Goodbye for now.