THE POLICY WITH LEAH FEATURING DR DAVID AHERUVOH

Added: 2026-05-09

[00:00:21]It is a brand new month and the war in the Middle East doesn't seem to be abating soon. While the global economy has been projected to record decline this year owing to that crisis, the strain is already being failed by the organization of petroleum exporting countries OPEC, which set Nigeria's production quarter at 1.5 million barrels per day for this year 2026.

[00:00:47]Despite missing the supply quarter in April, oil revenue remained significant to the nation's income and oil prices rose to four years high after the UAE announced its exit from OPEC. Today our attention is on the oil market and the Nigerian economy. How this development will be affecting you and I and what next. My name is Lea Kung Baba Tundi and happy workers day.

[00:01:24]As always, we start the business of the day from the trend table.

[00:01:36]The United Arab Emirates has left the organization of petroleum exporting countries OPEC following its earlier announcement that it was quitting the organization May one. The decision is seen as a blow to the blood as an unprecedented energy crisis caused by the Iran war exposes discord among Gulf nations. The UAE, which has long-standing frustrations with OPEC quarters that restricted its ability to sell more crude, insist the decision was driven by energy policy, not politics.

[00:02:11]Opair Golf producer have been struggling to ship export through the street of Homer's a point between Iran and Oman through which a fifth of the world's crude oil and liqufied natural gas normally purses because of Iranian threat and attacks against the development bank of Nigeria DBN has said it granted 1.4 4 trillion NRA loans to small and medium enterprises between 2015 when it was established to date. Managing director chief executive officer of the bank Mr. Tony Okanachi who disclosed this in Nabuja at the presentation of the DBN205 financial statement during the bank's 9th annual general meeting. AGM said the bank created 1.6 6 million jobs from the loans. Papanachi said the institution which was established to supportmemes in the country borrows $300 million to MSME in 2025.

[00:03:20]Minister of Avation and Aerospace Development, Festos Kyama, has announced the Federal Executive Council's FG approval of a comprehensive settlement resolving a 20-year dispute with by Courtney Evision Services Limited over Murala Muhammad Airport Terminal 2 in Lagos. Briefest state house correspondence after Thursday's fed meeting shared by president Bolatu.

[00:03:45]Kyamo said council approved the terms of the agreement reached with wi bala king of by cotney to settle all the fat issues surrounding the airport. Kama trace the conflict routes to buy cotney's concession starting in 2003 extended to 35 years amid claims over the adent MM1 domestic terminal. All which have now been laid to rest.

[00:04:13]President Bola Ahmedibu has nominated Mr. Joseph Sunbe as minister of power subject to confirmation by the Senate.

[00:04:23]The nomination follows the resignation of the former minister Ado Adabu who stepped down from office to pursue elective office. Mr. Tebe from Ouror state is a fiscal and economic reform expert with over 35 years of experience spanning the public and private sectors.

[00:04:42]The president also appointed Mr. Juan Lar Balola a former minister for power as special advisor on power and chairman of the presidential task force on power sector reset and restoration. The president redes the office of the special advisor energy as the special advisor oil and gas to clarify roles and avoid duplication of functions within the energy governance framework.

[00:05:17]Next is our policy conversation on the global energy market and the Nigerian economy.

[00:05:31]Disruptions in the street of Homo as of April 2026 are causing global supply uh shortages and driving oil prices high creating a complex economic scenario for a country like Nigeria. While higher prices increase potential oil revenue, they are also leading domestic fuel shortages and skyrocketing fuel cost forcing Nigeria to seek stability in the region. Now the United Arab Emirates has announced its exit from OPEC adding a new layer to the global energy market crisis. But where is Nigeria in the midst of all these? Economist Dr. David Aeruo is a fellow of the Institute of Chartered Accountants of Nigeria and the Institute of Chartered Economist.

[00:06:25]He's also a former banker and joins me to examine these issues. It's nice to have you join me, sir, for this conversation.

[00:06:32]>> Thank you very much, Madame Leah. How are you?

[00:06:35]>> Fine, thank you, sir.

[00:06:36]>> Good.

[00:06:36]>> Yes, sir.

[00:06:37]>> Good. So just some weeks ago actually at the spring meetings I actually posed a question to the immediate past uh minister of finance Mr. Wun. Nigerians needed to know at that time where we stood in the midst of the crisis and uh if we had been insulated enough from the global shock that already the forecasts were showing that there was going to be a downward growth trajectory and he assured that Nigeria was okay and uh we are strong enough to weather the storm.

[00:07:14]But with this scenario before us, can we still maintain that position?

[00:07:18]Well, with all due respect, I beg to disagree with the former minister. No economy in the world is resilience to a global disruption.

[00:07:29]But what I want to simply say and mark my word, the only thing that is different between Nigeria and other country is that Nigerian people are resilient.

[00:07:42]That is very very imperative to note that Nigerian economy is not resilient is not uh strong enough to withstand international oil price shock but Nigerian people are very resilient and we are very strong. Why? Because we are fully independent of the government. If you look at the situation, most of the of Nigeria about 70% of Nigerians are living in subsistence existence. That means we are living on a day-to-day basis with what we can get and what we can do. Is not that what government can put on the table. So government are not even responsive to the need of an average man. Now the oil price is increasing. Yes. Uh naturally it should have been to our advantage.

[00:08:35]But when you have that oil price increase and you are still importing refined goods at a higher price then you lose all your values.

[00:08:47]>> So how do we how do we correct this?

[00:08:49]Because another question that was on the lips of a lot of journalists was are we going back to subsidies and the authorities said no we're not going back to subsidies. How do we insulate citizens from these price shocks? You see this is something that the government should have done a long time ago.

[00:09:11]If you are a producer of crude oil and you know that you also depend on that crude oil for internal internal running of your economy. You should separate the two. what goes out to the go I mean to the international market should be separated from what we are using internally in the normal circumstances that's what should so as far as I'm concerned people like Dangote and other refiners should be encouraged modular refiners should be permitted and an oil well should be given to them separate from the international locations When oil well if oil well is given to them and they are tapping from there they will only pay royalty for those for those extractions they make then the government can now determine and dictate what the h cost should be and if you take this step I can assure you madam that Nigeria will not pay more than 100 100 naira per liter >> is it practice ice elsewhere.

[00:10:27]>> It it doesn't need to be practiced elsewhere before you practice it. When I was in central bank, let me give you a story. Uh there is a a a software we are trying to develop and they say ah it has never been practiced anywhere. It has never been practiced. We said no.

[00:10:40]Don't we have brains? Don't we think out of boxes?

[00:10:45]We said no, we must do it in the banking provision department. We produce our software. We put it in use. Ghana copied. other people copied.

[00:10:56]Let us be originators please.

[00:10:59]We can pro that is why we are not we are not uh we are not moving forward because we lie to copy. We are not China. We can originate things. Nigerians abroad have originated things. A doctor has operated an a fetus and put it back and give birth. That is origination. I mean that's creativity and n we know Nigeria for that. So if as I was saying if Nigerian will government will separate international oil wells from the local oil wells. Give this local oil wells to all refiners.

[00:11:37]They are taken out of it to refine.

[00:11:40]Highly accountable. They know what they are taking. They know how much they should pay as royalty.

[00:11:47]Don't sell to them at international market rate otherwise you are still doing the same thing all over. Why you are doing that is because instead of paying subsidy you are indirectly reducing the cost of production and after reducing the cost of production you have right to determine and say this is how much you must sell the oil in the country because you give them the the raw materials. But wouldn't that uh wouldn't that take us back to the days where we say oh people are smuggling oil through the borders to neighboring countries?

[00:12:27]>> No.

[00:12:29]If they are producing the problem we have in this one of the problems we have in this country that is very very major is supervisory or audit. The federal audit department is a dead horse. No matter how you beat it, it won't rise and it will not work.

[00:12:47]because they depend on government to feed them. I've contested for that office for in 2016 and I knew what I what is there.

[00:12:57]If there is a good supervision, oil industries could be audited to the nearest couple from the production to the sales point. But once that is not being done and you allow NNPC is the one that is h producing is one that is auditing itself is one that is importing then what do you expect them to report.

[00:13:23]So the best thing is have a good system in place, a good policy in place and a good manager of that policy and you have a what I call a a separation of duties to a nitty-gritty point. you will get what you want out and the local production will be producing for the local to use without stress and want to be exported you'll be exporting. Now let us talk of even smuggling uh refined goods to outside if that is our fear the producers the refiners can export refined products we may not stop them.

[00:14:08]Dangotech is doing it already. We can't stop him because he want to make money.

[00:14:15]We are not going to control those prices because they are not selling to us. But there will be never a time they will tell us that there is a shortage of oil otherwise we will remove the the raw material from them. Now there will also be never a time they will tell us that they are going to increase the price because we have our own national price.

[00:14:34]Now if somebody else who is not producing is not in is not licensed but a middleman now buying trucks or petroleum products and is taking them outside that's a matter of crime. Once such person is gotten he should pay the price he should pay more than what he receive.

[00:14:57]You see one of the problem also is that we don't make punishment commencerate with >> the crime level. the crime level cuz if somebody stole 10,000 naira you say okay come and pay 5,000 NRA next time he will steal 100,000 naira but if he steal 10,000 naira and he pay 100,000 naira next time he will not steal so let's look at how we put our laws in order >> okay um I want to take you back to to UAE who has just exceeded uh OPEC >> and uh In my view, they can afford to do that >> because it is an economy that is independent of oil revenue to a large extent. They have a very thriving uh tourism industry. Yes.

[00:15:45]>> So, it brings me now to the conversation around diversification of the economy.

[00:15:51]We say we're diverse, but the bulk of our resources, our our revenue is still coming from the oil industry. So what what will be the practical steps to take to work us through perhaps the UAE path >> so that we can have diversifications.

[00:16:06]Yes, >> we can have other sources of income.

[00:16:08]>> Yes. Viable sources.

[00:16:10]>> Viable sources. Excellent.

[00:16:12]You know we have but they are not financed.

[00:16:17]I'm sorry to say that Nigerian we're hardworking but there's no enabling environment for our hard work to thrive. We have um several rare earth minerals in this country that are not financed.

[00:16:40]We are aware of it. In Kogi state alone we have 32 number of them 32 at least if not more.

[00:16:52]In the same Ki state we have a Jakuta state company. About three weeks ago, we have international conference on Ajakuta steel company and all the speakers agreed that a Jakuta steel company is the bedrock of industrialization and any country that doesn't have steel sector cannot be industrialized. I mean that is a straight facts that we must note.

[00:17:21]Now Nigerians private sectors including myself we have severally approached the federal government through the ministry that privatize this Ajakuta state let it work and they refused.

[00:17:41]They either delay you, you bring investors, they either do some charade and shenanigans and they nobody in the world who is an investor will want to waste his time around industries that he wants to help you revive and you are saying uh you are saying bring this bring that he won't he won't waste his time is money if a jakuta works I can assure you ma at least 100 large scale industries will be there. I can name them and you will see the relationship.

[00:18:18]At least 1,000 mediumcale industries will come up.

[00:18:23]At least 3,000 small scale industry viable small scale industries and Ajakuta alone has 46 units which are all industries on their own. If we concentrate, if we divert to solid minerals, steel industries, we will get enough revenue from there even just on tax basis. It will liquidate unemployment, graduate unemployment within two years and from there the economy will be stabilized. Government doesn't need too much to do to do all this. All it need to do is to set out a policy call in the investors who are serious and from there get the economy running.

[00:19:10]I don't know what this Nigeria wants any longer. We've been talking of this Jakuta for 40 years now. The second part is the same thing that is the same thing that is happening to a Jakuta that is happening to it which is agriculture because if you have a Jakuta you will have agricultural machineries produced and it will help agriculture.

[00:19:31]Now even the subsistent agricultural system we are doing insecurity is an obstacle. Look at Benway being vandalized and nobody can go to farm again.

[00:19:44]Therefore, the cost of food materials, the subsistence agricultural materials are getting higher. The government is not going to be paying everybody free money to buy food. No, it's not going to do that. But if he had allowed industries to thrive and security is in place, then this economy will be better off.

[00:20:06]So if we look to the energy market now, do you think that u adopting cleaner uh energy sources will take us uh some miles ahead? And um where is the subnationals in the midst of these conversations? Is it >> excellent? Excellent. Now uh anytime we talk about energy, my opinion is that federal government especially has taken too much upon itself.

[00:20:35]Now they have we thank God that they have devolved power and said each state can regulate or can produce and regulate their power.

[00:20:44]Excellent. Make it mandatory that nobody will have federal h power source any longer without contributing. give a target that at least each state should produce at least 1,000 megawatts.

[00:21:08]By the time the 36 states put in their resources and generate 1,000 megawatt, Nigeria will have at least 36. the FCT is here >> and including FCT then plus the four they have could make it 40 and you don't need up to that 40,000 megawatt to industrialize to survive but if you have 40 is the best option for you because you will never see darkness again and of course you can use electricity for as many as you want. As we are speaking there are about six geopolitical zone in Nigeria and these six geopolitical zone have different comparative advantage for generating power.

[00:22:00]The northeast have sunlight. The northwest equally have sunlight. The north central have water. They fall they can use hydro. The southwest can use waste. The southeast can equally have use either hydro or coal while the the the south south can use gas. These are various ways which you can generate power cleaner power and the energy source will be I mean the sources will be much much available and we'll forget about what we are talking about for decades.

[00:22:34]>> Yes. So in the midst of all this uh before I let you off the hook um what is it that the average Nigerian should know about this current situation because government alone clearly cannot do it.

[00:22:47]It has to be participatory by all citizens.

[00:22:51]>> Yeah. We should press the government to open doors for private sectors. What the National Assembly should do is we talk to you as our representative. You take it to the floor. the government hear it and they take action. That's just simple. Just simple and short as that. But no, this national assembly, especially this ninth, is it ninth or 10th National Assembly, they hear the executive, they do the executive, they don't hear the people.

[00:23:24]So they are not representing the people.

[00:23:26]I'm sorry to say that the truth. If National Assembly is hearing us and I hope they should hear the fact is that they should tell the federal government to create an enabling environment that we allow individual to thrive in this business and to help the government eradicate this poverty.

[00:23:53]about 130 million Nigerian are below poverty level.

[00:24:03]You're talking of UAE.

[00:24:05]UA is a very rich country.

[00:24:08]And how many of them? Just about 11.5 million people.

[00:24:14]And they were pumping out 3.2 million before they left OPEC.

[00:24:21]Why? because they want to pump more.

[00:24:24]I want to advise this government, especially the new minister of finance, the coordinating minister of economy, that please, now is the time of a young man. He's not as old as me. I should be older than him by far.

[00:24:42]He should take it up now and tell the federal government that we can take advantage of the exit of UAE by making an application to the OPEC floor that we need to increase we can increase our capacity and we should produce more than the 1.7 to 2 million we are talking we we are producing if that application is made we can strategize and say okay target 5 million barrel per day if UAE is just 11 million and they are producing 3 million barrels. Saudi Arabia is about 35 million people and they are producing 10 million barrel per day. I mean why should Nigeria with 250 million people produce 1 million 1.7 million 2 million barrels? Why we should have these facts in our hands and the president should make an application for increase in capacity.

[00:25:43]>> Thank you sir for making our time for this conversation and for adding value to this very national and global conversation. Sir, >> thank you very much.

[00:26:01]We move on now to our education segment simplified this and from there we take you to the local commodities market Heat. Heat.

[00:27:47]For more on rates from markets across the country, do well to log on to our sister website. It is www.mmarket niggeratv.com. We have all the details and more there for you. And don't forget that this program is available on every other episode on YouTube and our channel. It is our Saban media services.

[00:28:01]You can also watch the policy on our partner stations, Captain TV, Global TV Nigeria and KSMC News. Until we come your way again same time next week.

[00:28:09]Don't forget that the duty of the work in Nigeria lies in the hands of all citizens. So play your part and God bless Nigeria.