Everyone is Wrong about Bitcoin Sentiment

[00:00:00]Yeah.

[00:00:03][music] [music] [music] [music] Warning. This video and all other videos on this channel are for entertainment purposes only. The content of this video and all other videos on this channel are opinions of the creator only and do not constitute legal, trading, investment, or financial advice of any kind.

[00:00:32]Investing carries a high level of risk and the majority of retail clients lose money. Do not invest happens unless you understand the risk and you are prepared to lose it all. All right. Hello and welcome to Camel Finance. I'm your boy Camel and today I want to talk a little bit about Bitcoin sentiment. I'm noticing a shift here and I just wanted to flag it as ever. Take it, leave it, you do you. I'm not trying to convince anyone of anything. I'm just calling it how I see it and then you can do with that information what you will. So, I wanted to start by just casting our minds back a month maybe. And I was saying that this current rally in Bitcoin was expected and it was expected to end around late August and that's when we expect this place to get super sour in terms of sentiment. This original squiggle here I said we should be about here in terms of time which means we put in the weekly low. We are now putting in that left translated and expected to be failed weekly cycle low.

[00:01:15]We then were short from this 80k setup.

[00:01:17]Okay, I was talking about how all the way back in early May we were pointing at this and saying this makes a lot of sense. Those of you that have been here a little while, if you actually cast your minds back there, do you remember how much hate I was getting for that yellow squiggle, right? People were doing that whole quote tweet thing when I said, "I expect to buy around 60K around the 28th of May or whatever the date was." And lots of people were quote tweeting it and like really clowning on it. Like they were being really toxic about it. And then just a few days later, we actually got that spill. And so, you will have all seen this chart.

[00:01:44]In fact, let's get a real-time version of it. This is what I'm talking about.

[00:01:47]We drew a yellow squiggle with this. A lot of people before this happened were already declaring it ridiculous. They were clowning on me, being very toxic.

[00:01:54]Okay? And now here we are just continuing to do the yellow squiggle.

[00:01:57]And so the first thing I just want to remind people of is I'm saying the same thing. I haven't changed stance. I I had this idea. This idea is still in play for now. And there are no invalidations here. We've made invalidation extremely clear multiple times. And unless that invalidation has hit, we shall continue to accept this as what's most probably going to happen. It's really as straightforward as that. That is my call. Again, disagree with it, agree with it, ignore it completely. I don't mind, okay? But I'm not going to change my stance because somebody in my YouTube comments says you're on the wrong side of the trade or you're part of the herd or whatever. So, I felt like I needed to reiterate this because bringing us up to speed in current day, I've been getting bombarded with people telling me I'm the herd. I've been getting bombarded with people telling me everyone's calling for 30K even though I'm not even calling for 30K. Something has gone a little bit weird here. Okay, these couple of green candles has caused a lot of people to suddenly start to really behave differently. Okay, and it's always worth taking note of that. And so again, just remember this was expected, right? We cannot say this wasn't expected because here it is. Okay, this is what we thought would happen. And of course, here it is. This yellow squiggle. This is what we thought would happen. Okay, we cannot possibly say we didn't see this coming. So far, the point is not, oh, I got this one right. I told you so.

[00:03:11]That's not what it is. It's just simply we had an expectation and that expectation is still yet to be invalidated. Okay, and that's good. That means we can sit here and chill for a minute. But of late, I keep seeing this.

[00:03:21]Okay, lots of people are saying everyone's calling for new lows, right?

[00:03:25]This is a big thing people keep spamming me with, right? Oh, we're going to buy the bottom in October. Like, everyone thinks this is what the four-year cycle is. But, as we've been showing on this channel over and over and over again, to call for a four-year low in October doesn't even make sense from a cycle perspective. If this is the 4-year low in October, there'll only be one two daily cycles inside of that weekly cycle. Whereas every other weekly cycle has been 1 2 3 and an inversion, right?

[00:03:51]1 2 3 and an inversion. 1 2 3 and an inversion. So why now would we get here, put in a weekly cycle low, and then say 1 2 done there. We don't need the rest of it. Okay, don't worry about the fact that we need about 31 weeks to reset the weekly cycle. Instead, we'll just do it in half that. Let's just do 15 weeks.

[00:04:10]Call it a day there. Okay. So, the people that are accusing me of being on the herd because, quote, "I'm aiming for 30k in October when I never said October and I never said 30k." I just felt like I had to kind of reiterate this point.

[00:04:22]Okay, that is not how cycles work. We will probably need another halfish of a cycle here, okay? Then another one, then another one, then arguably an inversion before we can even begin to find a 4-year cycle low. So sometime around late this year to early next year is far more probable based on the cycles than anytime between now and October. So I'm not sure who needed to hear that. Um just one more thing I suppose right now the herd doesn't even exist. If you actually knew how to read sentiment, we're about 50/50. About half the market thinks the lows are probably in and about the other half of the market thinks we're going to go to new lows towards the end of the year. There is no herd here. And the people that think there's a herd are really just flying a flag to show you don't know how to read sentiment. Okay, here's a very easy way to read sentiment without even having to look on Twitter or speak to anyone out in the wild or anything like that. Okay, this is a range that goes back to February. Okay. Now, if we had one-sided herdish sentiment, we would not be going sideways in price for six odd months or 5 months, whatever the number is. So, anyone saying there's a herd is simply ignoring the price. the price is going sideways and that's because we got indecision 50/50 and when you look at things like poly market when you look at the cot when you look around you objectively instead of just use your subjective algorithm okay that you train to feed you a feedback loop of the things that you believe and most importantly when you look at price okay this is a range sideways indecision base here because there is no hurt there is no one-sided sentiment so I don't know about October I don't know about 30k but I do know as I see it okay and let's be honest I'm a lot better at sentiment reading than most people. Okay? And as I see it, the people that are calling for new lows in Bitcoin are experienced traders and they've got strong track records. That's what I observe. And what I also observe is the people calling for the bottom to be here are neither of those things. The people that are calling for the bottom here have not traded through three, four cycles. Most of them don't know how to even define the fouryear cycle. Most of them have never traded the other cycles such as the S&Ps or the Dixies or TLTs or whatever. Most of them think it's the business cycle or the h havinging or some sort of self-fulfilling prophecy that drives these lows. Okay? They couldn't tell you those small details that are important such as we probably won't bottom in October because two daily cycles isn't enough to reset a weekly cycle. And most importantly, the people saying the bottom is in here have done so the whole way down. Let's be honest, they saw this and they went, "Well, that's it. Capitulation. Okay, 10 altcoins blew up." Then they saw this and went, "Well, that's it. 60K." They saw this and said, "There you go. We couldn't breach the lows, right? Bottoms in." They're still doing it, but they don't realize that they're just doing this on vibes, okay? They're just doing this on gut feel. This is no different to horoscopes or tarot cards. They do not have a backtested system with probability edge. Okay? That's what cycles is, by the way. Cycles is a backtested system with a probability edge. So, all I'm suggesting is let's just allow the probability edge to do its thing. Over enough repetitions, it extracts capital from the market. Unlike saying that's it, I'm going max long and then I'm doing the same here and here.

[00:07:23]And then when they get down here, they'll finally go, oh, you know what?

[00:07:26]15K makes perfect sense, right? It's just how psychology works. But everywhere I look, okay, not only is the probability edge telling us we've got more lows to come, or at least more time. That's the thing. Even if we don't have new lows, we should have more time here. But I also see a bunch of things like this, okay? It just looks a lot like we need to come down and make that sentiment one-sided. I've never seen a fouryear cycle bottom with 50/50 sentiment. I've never seen a 4-year low come in with half the market already aggressively buying the dip and bragging about it on Twitter. I've never seen that happen. And as Jesse points out here, we still haven't even hit the yellow box. Okay? We are still yet to make a higher high. Now, we're getting close. Okay? And of course on this channel, we've been calling for a quick sweep of that before then we roll over and head lower. But at the moment, remember we were talking about this just yesterday. This is the first hurdle for Bitcoin to clear. first hurdle before bulls can say, "Okay, now at least we've got a higher high and we can look for a higher low to come in above this." But that's the first hurdle and we still haven't even done it yet. So for all these people saying everyone's heading lower, they're not. They're cheering this thing to go higher around in 50/50 ratios and they can't even wait until we've got a change in behavior and market structure to start feeling confident, right? Like it goes to show you the level of inexperience and the lack of skill set in the market at the moment. It's important to pay attention to that. And again, it just blows my mind that you draw a yellow squiggle like this. I'm really, to be honest, I'm a little bit shocked that people aren't like, "Oh my god, what an amazing squiggle." Right? That's how I feel like people should be reacting to this because I've even surprised myself with this. Like, this is remarkably accurate so far. Okay? And so long as it gets up here somewhere around 74K by the end of August and then rolls over into the 4-year low, I couldn't have possibly done any better here. And it's kind of amazing to me that people are looking at this and going, "You're wrong. You're wrong. You're wrong. You're the crowd.

[00:09:13]October." Yeah, right. 40, 30k, whatever the number is. Right. It's kind of strange to me. So, the reason I'm saying all of this, I think, is because it's important to note when this happens, right? Only two weeks ago when the price was down here at kind of 61K, nobody cared, right? Nobody cared. Nobody was bragging. Nobody was telling you you're wrong. Nobody was telling you you're the you're the herd or whatever. And then just a mere 2 or 3K higher and two weeks later in time and the sentiment is already getting pretty excitable. Okay.

[00:09:42]Okay. And that excitable sentiment is still absent of even a new higher high above 675. So we probably will do that.

[00:09:49]Hence the yellow squiggle being up here.

[00:09:51]Okay. I do expect us to come up here and make a macro lower high below this cluster back here. Hence the yellow squiggle being drawn like this. But it is of note here that this is typically not what you see at fouryear cycle bottoms, right? When the major yearly cycles bottom, you do not see a bunch of people jumping up and down and clowning on bears, right? You don't get that at all. You get the complete opposite. You get people saying the low's not in when one final lower low is coming. You don't get people going, "Oh, too many people calling 800 ETH. Time to go all in."

[00:10:20]Right? That's not what four year cycle bottoms tend to look like. So anyway, that is my morning rant on Bitcoin done.

[00:10:25]As ever, you do you and I'll do me and we'll see what happens. The NASDAQ right here in other news is showing a potential road map for a quick move higher out of this upcoming daily cycle low followed by perhaps a correction into the weekly and four-year low. What does that look like? Well, of course, it would look something like this, right?

[00:10:41]Up we go and then down into that four-year low. And then the big question becomes, do we get to run this thing hotter once again into next year? Does this align with that macroleft translation for Bitcoin? Does this whole thing occur on some kind of insano berserko QE moment, okay, with interest rates being slashed during this crash here? Do we get one final rally like this? I certainly expect the commodity sector and Bitcoin to do this. I'm not convinced the stocks are. I think the stocks may well have something more like this in play unfortunately, but time will tell and I'm fully open to that as always. Can't deny the fit is pretty good at this moment in time. So, we'll keep tracking this. We do know that retail cash allocation is at extreme lows only seen at 98 2018 and 21. So, take a look at this down here. Okay, retail is basically all in here. So, what can go wrong? And the last thing I wanted to point out before we run through some charts and hunt down some tradeable lows is the silver chart right here. Okay, which is on its way to back test this kind of 58 level. I actually don't much like this upward sloping support line. I think that just coming back to retest 50 would be a nice spot to aim for. But maybe that's too round.

[00:11:49]Maybe that's too much of an obvious level. So either way, it doesn't really matter what the price is. We'll use the cycles to guide us in. And of course, we know the cycles for the metals are behaving as expected. Okay, so we'll continue to see what happens here. We'll continue to aim for this. And then I expect this to be quite contrarian.

[00:12:04]Exactly the same sort of shape for silver around maybe bottoming around 50 bucks I think would be good and then I expect real fireworks from there. So easy as that for the metals. Okay, a little bit more patience is going to go a long way. If you're a level three member of course we'll make you a bunch of videos going through the individual stocks that I'm going to be adding once we get to the next daily cycle around the end of August. Bitcoin I think we've done to death. Okay, the yellow squiggle is still in play. The yellow squiggle is still undefeated. Okay, and there's really nothing else to say about that.

[00:12:30]And as for the stocks, looks like we are pulling down into our daily cycle low window, doesn't it? It looks like we are getting ready, if I go to the NASDAQ here, to find ourselves a confirmed swing any day now. And then what we got to do is wait for the confirmation signals to fire, to wait for the indicator to pick it, and it should be off to the races. Dow Jones has now completed. If I turn this off briefly, okay, you can see we've definitely got our two drives in here now. Okay, to a lower low. Again, all we're missing now is this thing to turn around and move higher and it will print a trade setup here for us. Given that the VIX is down 6% today, is this a live action? Yeah, so I would say that probably means the futures are looking good. Let's take a look. Yep, looks like we are getting ready for the turn. Looks like we're in the making of potentially seeing some swings here. Okay, so we are still absent of the confirmation signals, but they should be here any moment now. And then I think again we can talk about getting these longs on. I'll just take a quick look at SMG, which again dangerously close to a little breakout here and signaling a new trade inside of the window with the indicator probably about to pick this. I would think probably just wants to take a little bit more time to be a bit more sure of itself here. So, we'll get ready for this. This should be good to go. Those other members trades looking all right.

[00:13:34]So, that's good, too. And what else is there to say, really? Um, I know people like the yields, but no changes there either. Same with the Dixie. No real changes there either. So, nice and straightforward, really. We're just still waiting for confirmation signals so that we can be sure of oursel that the low is in. And then the probabilities will officially be skewed in our favor so we can manage risk around those lows and get those trades on for the stocks and probably for the semis. And then once they're on, it will just be time to sit back and let the market do what the market's going to do.

[00:14:02]Right. We are getting ready to have a meeting today with the Camel Finance team and the CF trading merge is coming very soon. So we're just going to run over a couple of things and then I think it's going to be time to launch this thing. So stay tuned for that. And otherwise do consider what I said about Bitcoin and the sentiment. Looking around on Twitter and drawing a conclusion based on Twitter posts or ex posts that you see is not a measure of sentiment. Okay. It's also true that fouryear cycles do not bottom when half of the market is long and strong here and bragging about their long and strong position. Okay. [laughter] The markets typically do not find four-ear cycle bottoms when people are dunking on a 4-year cycle which they themselves cannot define. Okay. I think it's worth taking note. But as always, you do you. Feel free to reject this.

[00:14:45]And as ever, I'll see you tomorrow.

[00:14:47]Until then, all the best from me. Take care. Cheers. Bye.

[00:14:50]Finance.

[00:14:54]Rocking the market with his contrarian stream. Trades like a pro. No fear, [singing] no shame. Sticking to his guns in his money game. [music] He's a bad ass. Oh yes indeed. Camel finance got the markets [music] key taking us stories on a bumpy ride.