Crypto is Confused with F&G at 23 and BTC at $75k

Added: 2026-05-05

[00:00:00]Bitcoin is starting to show its first real cracks, signs that it's going to reverse. I've been warning you guys that this is going to be happening. We're slowly seeing it unfold. There's still a chance that we could actually push up a little bit higher, but to be honest, a pivot high moment seems like the most likely outcome. How low could Bitcoin go from here? And uh are we really going to see that drop to 49K or actually $38,555?

[00:00:27]And why those numbers? All of that here.

[00:00:29]and more on Coin Beer Trading. What's up? My name is Aaron Disher from the Better Traders. You're watching Coinb Trading. Hit the subscribe button, like the video. Let's get into it right away.

[00:00:38]Now, I'm going to give you guys the bullish scenario first. Um, I also want to start with this elephant in the room.

[00:00:46]Um, a lot of people on X have been raving and super excited about Bitcoin breaking above overhead resistance. Now, you'll notice on my chart, it doesn't appear like that. That's because I never ever ever use linear scale. I'm always using log scale because linear looks like garbage with crypto charts mainly because of well charts like this. It just doesn't really help me. It doesn't inform me. It doesn't give me a good idea. It's not too pretty. Whereas a logarithmic chart, it's still insane. Rave is just a joke right now. Anyway, um so that's the first thing is that if you're using log scale like I am, no. Bitcoin actually hasn't pushed above overhead resistance yet. Now, you can groan, you can gripe, you can whail about this. It's just the fact. Now, do I ever, listen carefully, do I ever switch my charts from log to linear? No. Never. I don't even look at linear scale for anything. If you guys watch my videos, you've been watching for a long time, you know I don't use linear for anything. It doesn't make sense to me. So, with that in mind, no, we have not seen the price of Bitcoin come up to test overhead resistance.

[00:02:04]But, you know what would be a really good target if Bitcoin finally got a magical push up higher? It would be most likely today, immediately today at $77,300.

[00:02:16]Now, maybe Saturday 776K. Hey, do I hear 75 74? But that's the next logical target. Now, the other thing to consider is the TBO, which stands for the trending breakout indicator. Why is this relevant? Why am I bringing it up? Well, four years ago in the previous bare market, in the previous bottom year, we saw the price of Bitcoin rally up from below the cloud at 37K all the way up to 48K, just a little bit above, that's right, the daily TBO cloud. So, if Bitcoin were to actually have an insane extra leg up higher, which isn't very likely, but if it were to happen, the top of the cloud is always going to be a great level of resistance or a termination a termination zone to watch.

[00:03:03]The other thing to consider though is that even back here in 2022, the direction or the angle of the slow line tells me which way the chart is going to go. Just like right now, if we zip ahead to where we are, the slow line, while it is admittedly not as strong bearish as it was back over here in March, it's actually flattened out, meaning that the angle isn't so vertical. Now, it's slowly moving a little bit more horizontal, I guess you could say.

[00:03:38]But is it really flat? Nah, it's it's still pointing down. Is it slowing down?

[00:03:44]Yes. But is it like going up or flat?

[00:03:48]No, not yet. So that's the other thing that I keep looking at in terms of price action. The fact that the slow line, while it's not pointing down admittedly as strongly as it was before back over here in late March, it's still pointing down. Putting a gun to my head, that's down. I know it's slowing down, but it's down. Okay. The other thing to consider is that daily RSI, which I always use RSI with a length of seven because it's a lot more responsive for crypto charts.

[00:04:19]Again, the default is RSI with a length of 14, which might work well for stocks, but for crypto, RSI 7 works really well.

[00:04:26]We saw RSI go um overbought on Thursday, yesterday at 70.76 and then earlier this week on or rather Saturday, not earlier this week but Saturday, April 11th at 73.37.

[00:04:40]Before that we had 76.83. Before that we had 82.07. Before that we had, you get the idea. These are all higher levels, but each high is just a little bit lower, as in lower highs.

[00:04:57]The expected natural response for price action after seeing weaker highs over and over and over is to see RSI go a lot lower. Now, we saw a tease of this back with a low on the 29th of March where BTC went down to about here, 65K.

[00:05:23]It invalidated our bare flag, which you notice I haven't talked about anymore.

[00:05:28]And just because something is invalidated doesn't mean that the bare flag wasn't a good call to begin with.

[00:05:35]It just got invalidated, which is okay.

[00:05:37]And I am not ever going to say, well, because it was invalidated here, that means we have to draw it out. We have to move things around. No, it doesn't work like that with bare flex. At least in my opinion. No, no, no, no, no, no, no. So, it was invalidated when the price went above. Great. But that leaves us with um another thing to be watching, which is our support fan. Now, whether or not you believe in support fans or not, it doesn't really matter. Our support fan is based off of an initial pivot low.

[00:06:05]Okay? So, we have our low on the fee February 6th low. We have a low here on uh March 29th. What we do after that is we draw successively higher support levels based off of the next successive pivot low over and over until it just doesn't make sense anymore. What will happen with this inevitably as well is that support's going to go way more vertical. And these very very vertical support levels or resistance levels if we were to invert the chart are obviously going to be the first ones to be broken. But the first ones to break create the new trend, I guess you could say. Let me show you what I mean. So, going back over here, February 6th, February 24th, we have another low. We're just going to draw it out cuz it's going to be a little bit prettier. And then we have another support low right there. So, see what happens to price as soon as it pulls back from here. If you really want to be really annoying about it, I guess you could do this, but it doesn't really make that's like too vertical. Uh, for the sake of an example, we'll just do it. We finally have that big first crash. All right, we see price respecting this previous support fin kind of sort of. But you can see how price on this level right here, which is much more convincing to me, at least in my opinion. Seeing the price pierce but struggling to break above, that's a great sign. And then we see it breaking lower, breaking lower until it pushes up higher. Okay, but we're not focused on those support levels. We're focused on these support levels. So, the main level to watch literally right now today is $73,700.

[00:07:40]If Bitcoin wicks below this level, which is a pretty strong possibility given the fact that, if you didn't already notice, Thursday's low at $73,39.

[00:07:53]If we were to just take that and drop it over, that would be below this first support fan line, then it creates a pretty good opportunity for BTC to crash below this first level and at least come down here to the second one. Now, what's wild is if we think about time and how long this is taking. If we break below something like this, by the time we get here to Monday the 20th, which isn't that far away, it's only a couple days away, that means that Bitcoin would be just above this little pivot move here on the 12th of April.

[00:08:27]And with the TBO, it would be very much already hitting the fast line, if not the bottom of the cloud.

[00:08:34]Now, does this mean that this is the next real big pivot move where we see Bitcoin get down to those crazy levels that I just shared with you? Well, to be honest, I really already went over the game plan a while ago. Uh on the 10th, a week ago on Friday, I talked about the fact that I was predicting Bitcoin dominance would shoot up higher, which it did. And once we saw Bitcoin dominance top out, most likely dominance would shift to others and alts, which happened yesterday. So the next thing to logically happen is for Bitcoin to roll over. So I I really encourage you to watch that video to get up to date on that. But before you watch that, check out the links down below in this description on that video's description to sign up and trade on Tubbit where you can earn over 15,000 USDT. There are also way more deals available on the Coinbe website. If you go to the deals button here, there are lots of tools, resources, services, wallets, uh trading bots, even educational courses like our course 50 minutes of financial freedom from the better traders where you get a 10% off discount.

[00:09:42]So definitely check out the links down below.

[00:09:46]The thing that I'm paying attention to that I made mention of on Tuesday this week is fear and greed. Now, Fear and Greed actually moved up. I wish they would change the scale for this. It doesn't look so great. On Tuesday, it was up at 21. On Wednesday, 23. Wait, am I right? Yep. 23. Oh my gosh, I can't speak. On Wednesday, I was up 23. And what's really weird is that it held the same level two days in a row.

[00:10:17]It could be nothing. It could be something. I don't but it's very very weird to see the fear and greed index just kind of park and pause at 23. The wild part about all this if you really think about it looking at price action which is feeling really good, right? Can you admit a little bit that even though me as a bear I can admit like wow like the sentiment is really really high right now which is strange because when you look at the crypto fear and greed index we're still at extreme fear which is really really weird. Um, so there's a massive disconnect in terms of the comfort level of the market where everyone is satisfied and happy right now and we're at extreme fear. That should be a massive massive red flag to you. Uh, you don't even need support resistance levels. You don't even need RSI or to look at previous mark markets or historical markets. That's a big problem. the fact that people are very content and happy with this move up, which isn't really that big of a move.

[00:11:22]Could it push up higher? It it always could. There's always going to be a chance. All right. But the reality is that I think it makes more sense for Bitcoin to fall lower given the fact that we're very very similarly positioned like we were back in the middle of March. By the way, a month ago, as in Monday, March 16th, is when we saw this, well, first green candle and then we saw on Tuesday, literally a month ago, a pivot where we saw Bitcoin drop about 14%. I still think that we could see another move down 14% if not lower. And that brings me to some much lower targets.

[00:12:03]The reason why I still think that Bitcoin can go lower is because it has in the past. But before it even gets there, there's a lot of these levels right here. These successive support levels on the chart for BTC are the first ones that got to get knocked out.

[00:12:19]And we actually have another level right here. Although it's very, very flimsy to call this a level, but anyway. Actually, I want to delete. I don't like it. So, our first level to take out is right here at $70,400. It's a 6% move. While that might feel like a lot, and especially if we get down here, like that's 13%. Wait, didn't I just didn't I just talk about that being a possibility? Here's the thing. When we start to get these bearish drops, like back over here on the 17th of March, we saw Bitcoin lose 11% over the span of 6 days. I know it says five, just trust me, it's actually six candles. Okay, that kind of a move is not ridiculous or strange to see at all for BTC. In fact, it even went lower than that. There's a really good chance that Bitcoin could drop 14%. And it doesn't even have to be over six days. It could be over two days. Um, the other things to consider are the artificial support levels, which Bitcoin has admittedly been doing really well with this historical level at 74,58, which is from April. I'm still very surprised and impressed with the fact that BTC has closed above it and it's still kind of dancing around this level.

[00:13:32]That's wild to me.

[00:13:36]But I still think that Bitcoin can go a lot lower. One of the other reasons why I think we can go lower is that Bitcoin has historically, as in the last three bare market years, 2022, 2018, 2014, the bare markets have lasted at least 52 weeks, if not longer than 52 weeks. I believe the 2022 bare market was 54 weeks. The 2018 one was 52 weeks. And I'm pretty sure the 2014 market, the bare market actually started, it just took a lot. Actually, it was 2014 to 2015. So, it took over a year. Took something like 60 weeks.

[00:14:16]And we're only sadly right now. You actually don't want to know this. Trust me. But we aren't there yet at all.

[00:14:26]Right now, we are only on week Oh, come on. I hate when that happens. You click it and you think it's working. It's not working. We're on week 28 right now out of a 52- week bare market approximately.

[00:14:42]So, out of this entire span of time, we're still waiting for the market to be done about the beginning of October. And I know it's a really easy argument to to say, "No way that's happening.

[00:14:57]Bitcoin's in a super cycle right now."

[00:15:00]I've seen lots of people actually say, "No, no." See, like this back over here in 2021 when Bitcoin fell 50%, it shot up even higher. People wouldn't be able to handle that. People won't be able to handle that kind of a a draw down comeback. We're down 50%, just like last time. We're going to go up even higher this time to 250. Are you guys ready for 250? And everyone starts sounding like Macho Man Randy Savage all of a sudden.

[00:15:25]What I find the most interesting is that I've been seeing so many accounts, so many bull posting right here.

[00:15:34]The bottoms in um 250k next 300,000 by the end of 2027.

[00:15:43]All this garbage. Now, are we at a shortterm reversal? Yeah. Like we've seen a good bounce. Admittedly, it's a good bounce. But the problem is that every single bare market sees a bounce, multiple bounces, if that. If we go back to 2022, we saw multiple decent midcycle rallies. There are two backtoback ones over here. The first one in January, the next one in March, we saw kind of a r, not really, I'm not going to say it's a rally at all, but like right here after we bottomed, we saw a rally of like 43% which was really good. saw this one. It moved up 23% and that was it. So, I mean, it's not unusual to see Bitcoin have these bounces, these little mini rallies. The same thing happened back over here as well. Um, actually all throughout 2018, we had massive, massive recoveries, but that's because volume uh was way down, which means volatility can be way higher uh with an immature market. So, is it weird that Bitcoin is bouncing right now? No. And I'm going to tell you because I was there. Every single one of these pumps right here, people were saying super cycles in. Bitcoin's going to go to $40,000 next. We're everything's going to go up so much higher. It's never going to stop. Every single one of these rejections, people were like, "Nah, nah, nah. It's going to go up so much higher." No one was ready for this right here. No. Absolutely. I can tell you right now, this is one event that's burned into my brain, into my memory. In November, everything just absolutely crashed. If we go back to fast forward 4 years, same sentiment, same thinking. When we saw the market starting to bounce, people are starting to get really cocky, especially here in in March. Then we see all this contagion, all this collapse, all these bankruptcies and stuff. Then the market finally bottoms out. People started to get really bullish here and it crashes. Really bullish. I got bullish here in September, October thinking, "Okay, great. We're done.

[00:17:51]That's it." And it even fell again.

[00:17:57]It It matters, guys. The duration of the market matters so much more than you realize. We're still not there yet.

[00:18:09]Now, yes, we've seen some pretty incredible events so far. Let me just go ahead and delete these guys for a second. I I still think that we're not there yet. I still think we're in for more pain. I still think that it's not just going to be 60K, but I think the next pivot low at 49K and then finally 3855, that seems like a reasonable target for multiple reasons. And I'll say it again because why not? We take our high at 1262,000.

[00:18:38]Sorry, 126,200.

[00:18:41]If we go down here, that's 69K.

[00:18:44]Sorry, 69K. Oh my gosh. 69 69%. Which is an improvement from 2022's drop of 77% which is an improvement from 2022's drop, which was 84%. So 84, 77, 70. It's a good target. It matches with this little pivot low. Maybe a little bit lower cuz stops are going to get triggered. So maybe around 37K. I I know a lot of people are going to continue to argue with me in the comment section and it's fine. It's totally okay. I could be 1 million% wrong.

[00:19:23]But I I've been doing this just a little bit longer than most of you. And when I'm looking at the sentiment right now, I'm looking at fear and greed still at extreme fear. But given the timeline and the sentiment, everyone is super excited right now. Everybody seems to be like, "Woohoo! Here we go. We're going to go back to 80K, 88K, 100K, 120K. Do I hear a $250,000?"

[00:19:49]Like people getting played real hard right now. Okay. I've already laid the game plan. April, we have a rally and then unfortunately May and June, historically speaking, in a bare market, it goes low.

[00:20:06]It's red. It's red. In 2022, it's red as well. In 2018, hopefully we bottom before then. This is just brutal watching all this chop. The important thing to keep in mind right now is account preservation. I've seen so many weird random charts pumping up hundreds of percent right now. Do I feel FOMO? Nope.

[00:20:33]Because I'm again of the belief that we're going to go lower. And if that's the case, these charts that are popping are going to dump right back down. Look, I'm going to explain why I don't have any sense of emotion or feeling like there's no way like I'm going to miss out. I need to buy right now. Look at the chart of FF. Ladies and gentlemen of the jury, I present to you FF single day pump 150% back over here a week ago and it's just about to fully retrace all the way back down.

[00:21:08]And you think that these coins that are pumping today right now are just going to keep pushing up higher. They're never going to have a pullback. These pumps are super organic and news-driven, quality driven. They're actually contributing something to the ecosystem.

[00:21:25]Right now, it's a game of cat and mouse.

[00:21:27]And right now, it really feels like the cat is away, and the mice are at play pumping and dumping charts left, right, and center.

[00:21:38]Where's the cheese? I don't see any cheese right now. I don't see any end. I don't see any reward or goal. All I see are random pump and dumps, which you guys should also know. Well, look at the history of bare markets. There will be pump and dumps because Bitcoin dominance is falling. And as it's falling, then we're going to see alts just flash left like all over the place. It happened in 2018. It happened a little bit in 2022. Not so much during the year, but at the end or like from summer on it did for sure. Understand pump and dumps do not reflect demand. It does not reflect quality. It does not reflect an actual viable product. And sometimes a good project will literally get pumped and dumped. It's just how it goes. They can't say no to that.

[00:22:28]You just have to be a little bit more skeptical, I guess. So again, I think that this is still a very strong chance that Bitcoin rolls over from here. I swear to God, my handle is not incorrect. It does say moon and papa. I know a lot of you don't believe me. You think that I'm doom and papa. I get it.

[00:22:49]But I've been telling you from November, warning you about 2026, which is a bottom year. And we're waiting for Bitcoin to bottom in 2026. And once it does, trust me, I'm going to go back to being moon and puppet. But right now, I'm doing everything in my everything in my control to preserve my portfolio to stack sats. Actually, I'm staking to earn a passive yield because that's been my plan all along. And then once we get signs of a bottom, I'm going to be placing my bids. I'm going to be dcing. And I will let you guys know exactly why and what I'm going to be invested in. All that fun stuff. But you have to stay subscribed. You have to have notifications turned on. All that good stuff. The important thing is not to rush. Bare markets are not in a rush to get over. All of us that are traders are in a rush to get it over with. The bare market can go a lot longer than all of us have patience for. Just trust me.

[00:23:46]Okay? You're going to want to watch the video that I mentioned before about Bitcoin dominance because that same exact thing is playing out literally right now. You need to know how it ends.

[00:23:54]Watch this. Until the next time, you know what to do. Stay awesome and stay in the green. Peace.