Why Most Investors Will Miss the Next Bull Run

追加: 2026-06-01

[00:00:19][music] [music] [music] [music] [music] [music] >> Good evening, everyone, and a very warm welcome to today's exclusive webinar hosted by Advisor Alpha.

[00:01:48]So, before we move on, let's look at the five key market updates for today.

[00:01:53]So, Sensex edges up on IT strength. The BSE Sensex closed marginally higher at 75,315, gaining around 77 points, led by technology and telecom stocks. Tech Mahindra, Infosys, and Bharti Airtel were the top gainers, while PSU and metal stocks weighed on the index.

[00:02:17]Second thing, second update is MSCI May 2026 rebalancing triggers FII outflows.

[00:02:26]India's weight in the MSCI Standard Index stays broadly stable at 12.3% approximately, but the small cap index loses 15 constituents, reflecting weakness in the small cap universe over recent months.

[00:02:43]Crude down by about 5.45% on MCX, and Hyundai are about to raise their car prices. They are planning to announce car price hikes about uh 12,800 rupees from June 1.

[00:02:59]They're going to start with this increased price for the for the different models.

[00:03:04]Suzlon Energy posts standout quarter four results. Suzlon Energy reported uh around 45% jump in their revenue and a 39% rise in their EBITDA year-on-year for quarter four, reinforcing strong momentum in India's clean energy theme, a sector that many investors have under weight in their portfolios.

[00:03:27]Taiwan overtakes India in global market cap rankings. In a notable global shift, Taiwan has overtaken India to become one of the top five largest stock markets in the world by market capitalization. A reminder that emerging market competition for global capital is intensifying, making stock selection and timing more critical than ever. And that's sort of our today's topic is as well. So, moving ahead just to touch upon some of the things, market moves fast, but smart investor move faster. Today, we have with us Mr. Ankit Chaudhary, business head of mutual fund at Advisor Alpha, who brings deep expertise in identifying market opportunities before they become obvious to the crowd.

[00:04:15]In today's session, Ankit will walk us through one of the most critical questions every investor is asking right now.

[00:04:23]Why most investor will miss the next bull run, and more importantly, what you can do to make sure you are not one of them. From understanding market cycles and positioning your portfolio at the right time to avoiding the behavioral traps that keep most investors on the sidelines.

[00:04:41]This webinar is packed with actionable insights you won't want to miss.

[00:04:46]We have a live Q&A lined up at the end, so please stay tuned and stay at the end. And drop your question in the chat as we go. We will collate them and present it to our speaker at the end.

[00:04:58]So, without further ado, let's get started. Over to you, Ankit.

[00:05:03]>> Hey, thank you so much, Akshay, and a very warm welcome to everyone who has joined this webinar. Very good evening to you all.

[00:05:09]Uh so, before I start with today's presentation, uh I would just like to highlight whom uh this presentation is intended towards. If you are someone who is questioning their decision of investing in Indian stock market over the last 2 years, or if you are someone who is thinking whether you should be stopping your SIPs right now, uh should you move your capital towards global market, uh and basically you are not able to understand what is actually happening. So, today's uh data-backed presentation is actually for you because uh you will actually get a good idea about what is happening globally, what is happening in the Indian markets, what is the historical connection of Indian market of today and let's say Indian markets since the Nifty has come into the shape.

[00:06:00]And we will see, you know, why why we are saying that, you know, a lot of investors will be missing on the bull run which will definitely for sure come in Indian markets.

[00:06:12]So, I will just present uh yeah.

[00:06:18]So, is my screen visible to everyone?

[00:06:23]Yeah. So, we will start.

[00:06:26]So, I will just walk you through what we will go through in today's presentation.

[00:06:30]We will look at what is happening in the market today vis-a-vis if you look at market in, let's say, September 2024 when the market when the bull run was at its peak and what is the historical connection of a bull run and a bear phase which comes in the market. What is happening in the global market and, you know, why India is currently missing out and in relation to what is happening in the global market, you know, what is the impact which is causing what is happening in the Indian market.

[00:07:01]Basically, global market may kya ho raha hai uska Indian market may kya impact pad raha hai.

[00:07:05]Then we will touch upon the one of the sensitive topic which is about the SIPs and because a lot of people as as empty data came last month, we realized a lot of people are actually questioning their SIPs and they are now, you know, canceling the SIPs or, let's say, taking harsh decisions which can actually hurt their investments. And we will look upon the valuation of the Indian markets now compared to the, let's say, a couple of years back and accordingly what we advise to the investors.

[00:07:37]So, we will move on.

[00:07:41]So, I got up arch come the cookie. So, today I actually market closed even further lower we today market closed somewhere around 23,500.

[00:07:49]And if you look at from the peak which is on the September 27, 2024 when market was at 26,277.

[00:07:58]Market actually does percent down in in the last 2 years.

[00:08:02]Okay. So, when the market is down or has given 10% negative return in the last 2 years, it is very very obvious to question your decision. And if you look at the how how this has happened. So, first we got a very long bull run. So, in COVID after the COVID crash market was was at 7,500.

[00:08:25]So, in in a in a 4-year journey up got better almost three times more than three times grow up.

[00:08:30]And it's about say you know in the last 2 years you have to have a negative return winning. So, obviously when we question I got key but we got to come to the Indian market.

[00:08:41]Should we move to the global market? A lot of finance influencers are already advising you by global markets Michelle and there is a strong reason why they are advising first of all.

[00:08:51]Okay. So, let us look at the historical connection first then we will come back to the global market.

[00:08:58]So, India may every beer face to I am market me it has actually come after a bull face. And after every beer face there is again a bull run that has come. Indian market historically that has been the case. So, I got up and dot com bubble taking a in year 2000, 2001 when the peak was at 1800 on February 2000. When I say September 2000 may the market actually come to around 850 which is 53% drawdown.

[00:09:28]And when I say 53% drawdown say back into in the year 2003 so September 2001.

[00:09:35]Market was 53% down and year 2003 market actually recovered in 1 and 1/2 year time frame.

[00:09:41]We look at the global financial crisis, the stock market was at 6,300 in January 2008 and it actually fell down by more than 65%. So it came to 2,200 level in a March 2009. So 14 months came around 65% capital eroded.

[00:10:00]It was a very very tough time for the investors, but you know, within a year in or let's say in just more than a year market actually recovered and reached an all-time high.

[00:10:10]And similar story we have seen in the COVID crash also and probably this is an ongoing bear phase you know, although bull phase and bear phase actually when the phase has crossed but I don't know that but currently looks like a bear phase you know, from our 26,000 level market actually went to 21,000 743 in April 2025 and it also went back in I think in April 2026 in March 2026.

[00:10:39]So actually I think those are the market has actually performed really really bad and it is very obvious for investors to question care of me your decision care of me your decision investment care of me investment care of me investment continue care of me investment.

[00:10:55]And on the other side a flip side so our Indian market in FY 2026 financial year 2026 till March Indian market net return was negative minus 5% whereas when we look at the global market so starting with let's say the southern South Korea market which is at euphoria the return is actually upwards of 100%.

[00:11:18]So that means market may a year 100% return and similarly you know Taiwan Taiex index you know, with powered by TSMC and everything it has actually crossed more than 50% return as as a market in a big market Same as what we are noticing in US. So US market is also doing pretty good and when FIIs will sell we see so they actually have a reason. You know, one is our market has significantly underperformed. That is always there.

[00:11:52]On top of it what is happening is that rupee depreciation is also very very high. So if you look at the rupee in September 2024 it was at 84 level and in May 2026 it has actually crossed 96. So more than 15% fall in less than 2 years. So if you look at FII point of view you will see okay first is our market has underperformed the global market and then on top of the depreciation in rupee. So basically only 20 to 25% of capital eroded will be seen so it's natural for them to run away from India and let's say invest in other markets.

[00:12:32]But you know, they don't understand the structural strength of Indian market. But we as an Indian investor we understand and we have to stick to it. So we look at why why you know Indian market is underperforming. So rupee depreciation is actually a derived factor. So rupee depreciation because obviously crude oil prices has jumped to a different level because of West Asia conflict because of Russia, Ukraine and everything.

[00:13:01]So crude oil is actually you know above $100 and it is actually very very high.

[00:13:08]US may bond yields are actually high because US is again going through their own you know, debt cycle you know, the government is actually borrowing to pay the interest of of the government bonds. So they have no option but kind of increasing the bond yields. So FIIs US based for them US market may bonds be attractive or to get because one call 4% of positive rate they then whereas Indian markets negative yield plus commodity you know rupee depreciation.

[00:13:40]So, that is why you know they will sell the equities they will buy in US dollars and when crude is rising we will be a net oil importing nation. So, I'm going to be you know overall dollar I make money by and ultimate result will be rupee will again go through a downward cycle. So, that is what is actually happening and we we saw that corporate earnings are also quite weak. So, if you look at Nifty EPS growth it was 8.2% in FY 26 which was close to 20% in the bull years.

[00:14:16]So, and on top of it because of concerns related to AI the IT sector also kind of dragged by 22% which was holding a significant share of Indian market.

[00:14:28]If I is the you know more than 2.2 lakh crore base the in between January to April 2026 we believe there is one strong hero to actually may be the Indian market to crash on a say you know kind of but which is the SIPs. So, right from let's say we look at starting with FY 17 8 cell color up to the between financial year 2021 the COVID I had that was given SIP value or SIP contribution actually been increasing and it has reached to a level you know we are contributing we were contributing around 32,000 crores every month. So, SIP was flowing into the Indian markets and in spite of let's say if I is selling 2.2 lakh crore in Indian markets in 2026 alone. October 2025 was the worst more than 1 lakh crore was sold in 1 month itself.

[00:15:30]Our market crashed over.

[00:15:32]So, this actually highlights the resilience that has been built in the market because of so much retail participation. And it is only increasing. It was increasing, but global geopolitical tension you know, rupee depreciate over there.

[00:15:50]Wars oil prices increasing and it is also you know, kind of being seen in the economy inflation is increasing. So, investors of SIPs and that is a concern because if you look at April 2026, the net SIP inflow was actually fairly low. So, in March we clocked around 32,000 crores as an industry new SIPs but in April 2026 only 31,000 crores SIP login key.

[00:16:24]It's key overall number of SIPs in our market may hit SIPs cancel in here.

[00:16:33]Okay.

[00:16:34]So, that is what is happening. Investors are cancelling the SIPs.

[00:16:39]But is it is it is it right for them?

[00:16:43]What all data there? So, when market was at peak the forward looking PE price equity ratio for Indian market was actually 24, which was actually higher than the you know, long-term average.

[00:16:57]But currently if you look at Indian market forward looking PE it is close to 20 20.5 or so.

[00:17:05]That means it is actually fairly low than the long-term average of Indian equities. It's not there.

[00:17:13]Currently the mutual funds for stock they are actually getting it at a >> cheaper valuation from their long-term average. And when you are buying a mutual fund it will also fall. And other September 2024 may maybe 100 units So, you look at now you're actually getting around 15 to 20% higher number of units.

[00:17:52]So, with the same amount of money, you are actually getting a big bigger pie of Indian equities.

[00:18:00]Okay. So, that is what is happening.

[00:18:03]And now why we why I said you know SIP stoppage is actually an alarming because March 2026 may the SIP stoppage ratio was more than 100%. So, SIPs discontinued versus new SIPs that registered was only 52 lakh. It's come out of a net net the total number of SIPs which were live kind of reduced.

[00:18:28]Okay. So, the shield protect the market go is kind of you know, while it is there it is still still 31,000 crores we are clocking. But there are a lot of investors who are going to miss out. Miss out on what?

[00:18:44]Yeah, yeah, miss out going to invest in this stuff. That is the question we should be asking. So, we believe the India key structural growth story of India is about strong.

[00:18:52]Okay. So, AI when when you say key why global markets are doing well, a lot of global markets are doing well because of AI. A lot of capital is flowing towards the AI company and AI companies I have are contributing a significant portion of those indexes. For example, Taiwan or for example, US market where you know, the top tech stocks which are also leading the AI race are actually the ones which are you know getting the highest share in terms of capital and in terms of valuation growth. So because of which right now obviously AI make euphoria when you have a bubble when you have a and this bubble will burst ticket and historically we have seen dot com bubble it was 2001 crypto it busted in 2022 and any any any bubble which forms the capital dry up ho jata hai it will burst. So when it will burst what will happen? Obviously then they will start realizing key are we have to invest in structurally good economies and structurally good business. So when when we say about US economy sitting on a time bomb because you know the US government has to pay a lot of debt on the US bonds and currently they are borrowing to pay that debt. That means they are sitting on a time bomb.

[00:20:13]Okay, the valuations are already high for major companies and obviously we we see a lot of risk there. But if you look at any any oil increase cycle also the every currently oil is let's say a dollar hundred more than dollar hundred but any search that has come in the oil prices in global markets has actually kind of reverse in the 12 to 24 months.

[00:20:38]So as I need to get a message in the right way this will change as situation gets better oil prices will obviously get rationalized when oil prices will get rationalized to obviously the benefit will flow into the rupee and to our oil marketing companies and everyone and then again you know the FI's which are currently let's say leaving India they will they will start realizing opportunities within India and that that has always been the case as an Indian FII is first time India may sell but how many of FII sell in our market crash our market crash it has become more more resilient and at the same time our structural story India demographic or you know penetration of UPI and digitization the infrastructure and now the energy energy may be a lot of good infrastructure in our country. So overall as an economy we are more more resilient we have seen a lot of pain and yet we have come out of it in the 1991 emergency and currently though you know in terms of forex reserves everything we are very very strong the GDP production is still still you know amongst the highest in terms of large emerging economies. So we believe yes India time will come our time will come and the capital will start flowing back in India.

[00:22:07]But if you are someone just near SIPs near you are or you are thinking to stop your SIPs you will be actually you will be part of investors who will miss on the biggest bull run.

[00:22:21]So what you should be doing and what we as advisor tell you is you should continue your SIPs because you should you are actually buying more number of units more bigger pie of Indian markets from the same level of investments just may I push them in September 2024 but here actually getting more of it so sale is going on in Indian market like we say.

[00:22:45]And you know don't stop your SIPs because you know the fear that is you know one of the biggest wealth destroyer and you should believe in India's growth story structural growth story do not try to time the market do not uh, for you know, whatever euphoria is happening in, let's say, the commodity cycle and commodity give you the opportunity to get out of the cycle and get out of the cycle and get out of the cycle.

[00:23:11]Uh, while we miss on the, you know, opportunities which are actually, uh, within our homeland.

[00:23:18]So, like Warren Buffett say, stock market is like a device for transferring money from impatient to patient. So, if you are impatient, you will sell your equities and definitely then you will lose on someone who has been patient and who has that confidence. So, stay invested, uh, continue your SIPs. If you have not, you should start SIPs. Uh, now SIP can be done at the bank branch. Don't worry, we have done the hard work for you. So, we have shortlisted handpicked mutual funds at Advisor Alpha. So, we have, uh, curated collections and we have, uh, you know, uh, expert prepared, uh, baskets with goals. So, whatever is your goal, whether it is to retire rich, whether it is to build, uh, wealth in the next 5 years, we have, uh, you know, handpicked and curated basket, diversified basket across different asset class. You know, it's 100% digital process, so you can start your SIPs within 2 minutes of, uh, downloading the Advisor Alpha app. So, uh, you can just head, download the app and start your SIPs if you have not.

[00:24:26]And, uh, stay invested if you are already, uh, invested and keep your SIPs running.

[00:24:40]>> Yep.

[00:24:40]>> Yeah.

[00:24:42]>> Yeah. Thank you so much, Ankit.

[00:24:44]So, it was very, uh, delightful and very info- informational and I think our listeners definitely will use some of those.

[00:24:53]So, yeah.

[00:24:56]Moving next, I think let's see if we have some questions and answer questions from some of our listeners. Is there Yeah.

[00:25:15]Okay. So yeah. So we have some questions for you Ankit.

[00:25:19]So let's start with that.

[00:25:21]So what is the biggest mistake people make when they start their investment journey?

[00:25:28]>> Good question actually.

[00:25:31]So biggest mistake there are a lot of mistakes which investors make.

[00:25:36]Hard to say what is biggest but yes some of the common mistakes which I have observed is people first you know they will watch some content online. They will think that you know they have gained enough knowledge and they will directly jump into stock picking.

[00:25:56]Okay. Or they will take advice from you know some random friends some random telegram and you know they will start with their stock picking. So that is one of the you know gravest mistake which I have seen people make instead of making an informed understanding that you know probably you are if you are new if you are a beginner you should actually consult an expert or you know probably take help of a SEBI registered research analyst for the stock picking.

[00:26:30]People directly jump into the stock picking or let's say they hear key you know so and so stock is rising so and so commodity is rising and they directly go in you know start their journey there.

[00:26:45]>> Right. Without >> Agreed yeah like when you make decision on half or incomplete information, it's always very dangerous.

[00:26:56]>> It is It is very dangerous.

[00:26:59]>> So, moving on to the next question. So, is it too late to start investing if you are in your 30s and 40s?

[00:27:07]>> Is it like So, it is it is definitely very late because you should have invested since the time you started earning 21.

[00:27:15]But if you invest tomorrow, that will be again, you know, much more late. So, start today. It's not late if you have If you have, let's say, 5, 10, 15, 20 years to your capital invested and let it compound, it is never late. Start right away.

[00:27:34]>> So, on that, for example, what should I focus on? Like should I focus for people who have not started yet or, you know, people who are in their different journeys of their investing? So, what should user focus on first? Saving and creating the corpus first or start investing immediately?

[00:27:52]>> So, so you should actually, you know, those who want to understand what they should be doing. We have in you know, previous webinar we covered They are actually five steps uh reach a point where you can actually start your investing. So, the first thing is to cover the grounds, cover whether, you know, you have an emergency fund uh prepared or not.

[00:28:19]So, uh first first and foremost thing is that you should prepare your emergency fund. Second thing is you should actually, you know, uh uh buy your insurance and all the important things. When when you are financially secured, that is the time when actually you should start investing in the stock market.

[00:28:39]And and then you should have a good amount of horizon also.

[00:28:44]>> Right.

[00:28:46]>> [snorts] >> So, another question is what should investor do today in order to prepare for the next bull run?

[00:28:54]>> Right. So, bull run and bear run. So, I I'll talk about my own experience. Okay.

[00:28:59]So, I entered this industry in 2019 fairly before the COVID bull run started. Okay. And you know, like any new investor, I thought that you know, I can time the market. So, that is also one of the biggest mistake when you are talking the biggest mistake out there. So, I didn't start my SIPs. I was waiting for you know, I used to take chances that the market will dip over. I will buy and the market will take over the over run over here. I used to sell.

[00:29:27]And after a year or so or maybe after 2 years, I realized that I've actually not made any money. So, that was the best way I could have simply started my SIPs over there and got that. And >> Right.

[00:29:38]>> I missed the COVID crash also for that matter. Okay.

[00:29:43]>> Right.

[00:29:43]>> So, when market crashed I was I was waiting. A lot of influencers were were telling you know, it's tough time. Don't start and it can further go down. It can It will last.

[00:29:56]Since I have not seen a cycle by then, so I kept waiting until the time you know, I got some serious advice from from one of my mentors who was a veteran in the market.

[00:30:06]And that is when you know, I started my SIPs. So, what investors should do to prepare for the next bull run is start your SIP now in the bear phase. That is the best time.

[00:30:16]>> Okay.

[00:30:16]>> And if you need help with where to invest, so you should seek help of an advisor. So, an advisor also also you know, we have research backed stock recommendations. We have mutual funds baskets, goal based baskets. You can just pick what suits as per your goal and you can start.

[00:30:38]As simple as that.

[00:30:40]>> Yeah.

[00:30:42]So, that's that's all we have for you.

[00:30:44]And once again, thank you so much for taking time out and giving out this very crucial information to all of us. So, yeah.

[00:30:54]So, to all of you to our viewers and listeners, I'll say stay tuned for our next webinar and yeah, looking forward.

[00:31:02]>> Okay. Thank you. Thank you so much, Akshay. And to everyone, you know, at Advisor Alpha, we we believe that you know, the long-term wealth is created over a long term only.

[00:31:15]So, there are no shortcuts in, you know, making money in the stock market. And keeping that in mind, we have actually prepared some of the very differentiated baskets, stock mutual fund basket, which are actually targeted towards different personalities. So, if you're someone who is early in your career, we have prepared first salary baskets for you.

[00:31:35]So, which you can use to get started with your investment journey. If you're someone who is looking for stability, we have a diversified all-weather portfolio for you, which diversifies your money across fixed income, across commodity, and across equity. So, you can look for that basket. If you're looking for a very, very long term and high compounding kind of a portfolio, we have prepared a retired rich basket for you.

[00:32:04]And if you have a fixed timeline of 5 years but then we have a 5-year portfolio as well.

[00:32:10]All right. And uh for everyone, you know, how do you like this webinar? We would love to hear your feedback. And so, we have we have the feedback link in the in the comment and in the chat box. So, please share your feedback about this webinar.

[00:32:29]Yeah.

[00:32:30]So, yep. Thank you, Ankit. Thank you, everyone for joining.

[00:32:34]Have a good evening.

[00:32:36]Bye-bye.

[00:32:37]>> me.

[00:32:39]Bye-bye.