Bitcoin Oversold?Crypto Market Update

[00:00:00]Is Bitcoin oversold? Today we're going to be breaking it down for you and give you some insights to all of that. Before we get started, I do want to thank our sponsor that is Tandem. This is where you can get into self-custody at a time like right now where the markets are very volatile. This is what you want to do. Lock up your digital assets in your own self-custody device. And you can do that by just going over to tangent.com.

[00:00:22]Use our link. It's going to give you a little bit of a discount to get going.

[00:00:24]True Ownership, easy to use. And I will say that it is if you're brand new to crypto, you will be surprised how easy this is to set up. Get a three card set.

[00:00:34]It is seedless by design, which is one of its security features. And check it out. Use the link down below. All right, let's get into it. Uh I want to talk about this real quick and that is Bitcoin surging past 65K. So many people would say, all right, is this the rebound that we have been looking for?

[00:00:51]because we are getting some productive some productive talks out of not only what's going on with Iran, but I think in general people in the market starting to look at this maybe uh we could see an exit happening very soon. I want to go to a clip real quick because this will get into Lyn Alden talking about is Bitcoin oversold right now or is this just on a bump? Take a look. you know, DeFi, NFTTS, uh, ICOs, that kind of thing, uh, is just in general, it's it's not as big of a market as people thought. That industry is kind of gradually stagnating. Uh, it really has been stagnating since 2021. Uh, so I think I think that Bitcoin has that whole kind of broader thing weighing down on it. Uh, and then obviously there's been concerns around some of these levered uh, Bitcoin treasury companies. Uh, which, uh, sometimes I think are overdone, but some of those are are valid concerns. Um and then the other factor is that a lot of investors that kind of viewed Bitcoin or broadly crypto as the fastest uh horse in the race have shifted toward AI. Um so just the the sharp rise in chip stocks in hyperscalers obviously the SpaceX IPO that's pulled a lot of capital that is otherwise you know maybe seeking you know kind of viewing Bitcoin and crypto as tech has been pulled in that direction. So until that kind of cools off a little bit, I think Bitcoin could be some pressured. Uh but I think Bitcoin's fundamentals are still good and it's kind of in the bottom, you know, 10 15% of its kind of historical other sentiment indicators. Uh it's it's kind of near the lower end of a lot of its uh historical indicators.

[00:02:22]All right. So what you see there from Lynn Alden is that her belief is really on the core center of what Bitcoin is really about. and she's always been a Bitcoiner. And I think when you listen to what she's saying, you understand a couple of things. And that is that look at this in comparison to previous markets. And I'll just give you an example right here. Bitcoin's rainbow chart. This has fallen below the fire sales zone. Let me expand that for you guys. We haven't seen this kind of dip before. In fact, it's very, very close to below fire zone levels. And it usually stays here for just a bit and then starts to move up. You see the sideways action that we saw of course back in December etc. But the point being is is this a buy point? If you look at 60 to 65 as the range many people may look at this in 12 months 18 months and say man that was the 165 range for Bitcoin. I think the real question is is do you believe in the asset? If you do, if you're listening to whether there it's the fundamentals that drives you, the aspect of where this is and truly could be digital gold or the whole component around is this the asset class that can keep pace with AI, then it is oversold. But the real question is this right here. You look at global liquidity. remember this. We've talked about this, I think, with almost every analyst out there. And almost everyone had been pointing to the whole idea of global liquidity being a correlation to where Bitcoin and the crypto markets would be going. That of course has completely fallen apart and mostly because this is a pivot in terms of liquidity into what even Lynn was talking about and that is AI and of course the alternative innovation uh stocks that are out there. Bitcoin is below its 2021 top of 69K, but you're so greedy that you're waiting for another 30% draw down uh in the best performing macro asset of all time. That comes in from a shift. Interesting. These levels look so obvious in hindsight, just like you guys uh looked at 15 to 20k buys from 22 would seem obvious now, even though at that time you'd still be well above that bottom of 165. So I think that is the is the matchup that and I think the real question is when does the rotation occur? Just to give you an example of the draw downs that we've seen. These are long and can be long bare cycles and you can kind of tell here's where we are right now. And it's not a bad position if you're looking at long-term holding of crypto assets especially something like Bitcoin. But there is room and I think that will be the thing that everybody has to consider. How much room are you willing to try to wait that out or miss the bottom and willing to pay that, you know, 20% premium on something if Bitcoin does take a run? And in general, if you look back at history, this is on the weekly. This goes all the way back into 22. And this was the bottom of where Bitcoin came in. And there was a couple of draw down days that you have to kind of look at. You had this one right here in June of 22. Yeah, this one right here in November before it bottomed out at the 165 ratio that everybody has been kind of looking back on. And that's the comparison that everybody's looking at now. Is that where Bitcoin is today? Because it puts a lot of pressure on the rest of the crypto assets including Ethereum, XRP, Salana, all of those will dovetail into Bitcoin's market. All right. So, one other catalyst to look at is the situation of what's happening with Iran is are we in the war? Are we out of the war? Trump's position right now, I think, is very critical. But does the market think it's critical is the question. Take a look.

[00:06:01]>> Trump's made it really clear. Uh he wants out, right? And so he's willing to take a political hit. Even if he'll try to spin it, that's a win, right? Let's pay to get out and let's We're going to piss off Israel a little bit. That's okay. we're getting out because I've got an election midterms in November and nobody likes this war. And so that's the calculus he's making and the markets like that calculus. From a market perspective, the war is over.

[00:06:31]>> Will Worsh hike rates this year, so I'm bearish on that. I don't think he hikes rigs this year.

[00:06:38]>> I don't either. I think he he talks tough and I think he gets kind of bailed out because I think crude coming down, you know, $75 crude helps a lot.

[00:06:48]>> Okay. Peace agreement with Iran holds bullish or bearish.

[00:06:54]>> You know, it's how we define it. I I I don't think it holds perfectly, but I think it holds enough that we're not we're not seeing oil back over $100.

[00:07:06]>> All right. Well, that's a pretty big uh statement. not oil going back to 100 bucks. But I think the key here is is that the market has priced in this war being over. And I don't know if that is completely the case right now. The US of course and what he's talking about here is Trump's positioning here, but the US has issued an an Iranian general oil related license which allows them the production and also the sale of Iranian oil again. So that's a big deal. It's also a huge capitulation I think from what Trump has been positioning for.

[00:07:38]That just shows you how active he is in trying to get out of this war. Other things though are this right here and that is will he be let out without actually having to stand up to Israel.

[00:07:52]This is the road map because it won't start until Iran refuses to implement any commitments if Israel doesn't fully withdraw from the southern Lebanon and fighting stops there. And this of course is Israel's defense minister saying we will not withdraw and we are not giving up a single inch. That's a problem because I think Trump has already made it clear to Israel this needs to end.

[00:08:13]The problem is Israel doesn't believe that. Now the question I think going forward does Trump put the pressure on if you think he's going to put the pressure on Israel let me know in the comments down below. I think that is the deciding factor for the Iranian agreement to hold going forward. Let me go to a clip real quick because this will get into Mark Cudmore talking about that peace maybe isn't fully priced in.

[00:08:36]Take a look.

[00:08:37]>> I think in the short term, where are we in terms of pricing? I think the market uh has a lot of cynicism about the deal.

[00:08:44]Uh and that means that peace is not fully priced, which means if it doesn't break down, it can continue to be an extended kind of small tailwind of support. Uh so I think that that that's important to emphasize that it's it's not fully priced that we're going to have uh some kind of you know continue going towards peace that the breakdown possibility is there. On a bigger picture thing where do we stand on oil?

[00:09:06]I think probably one of the biggest developments of 2026 is that oil has gone from being perceived as one of the most important macro uh assets inputs in the world to people realizing that it's a lot less important than than maybe they thought and I think that that is that is a gamecher for the the kind of the macro guide book. It is no longer uh as influential in pricing uh every asset around the world.

[00:09:32]So he is right on that is that it hasn't had much effect on the S&P 500 if you look at what's been going on in the tech stocks obviously with AI etc. But it has had some pressure on the macro side of things and this of course leads into the issue around inflation. If oil does stay above 70 it's going to continue to put energy at the forefront of inflation.

[00:09:54]That is one of the big factors that of course Kevin Worsh is trying to deal with. And you've got the Bank of America now saying that it expects the Fed to raise rates three times, guys. Three times in 2026. Bank of America goes in, they think that it's going to happen in September, October, and December. For this to occur, I think there's only one thing that could still be happening, and that is we're still in Iran. If if we're still in Iran, could we see something like this? Maybe. I don't know that we could see three rates, but it definitely could see a rate raised. The question though is if we get out, if we start to see an alleviation of pressure on a macro side of things and I think if we start to see any indicator coming from Worsh's new data sets, supposedly they're coming at us. We don't know where they're going to come from, where that data is coming from, but let's assume that the Iranian war is over.

[00:10:46]We've positioned to where we have below 70 oil and you've got a position where you have maybe new Fed data that is going to be favorable for possibly even a rate cut. I don't know if that's going to happen, but it gives Worsh a little bit of a pathway if he can actually get there with the rest of these macro environment. Let's go over to poly market real quick and kind of see right here. Here's the rate hike possibility that comes in October off of poly market. It bounced right here. This of course came from last week's FOMC meeting where we get all these new revelations I think from Kevin Worsh both on data, how they're going to deal with the market, the policy side of things, what it looks like in terms of inflation, whether or not they're going to look at the 2% target, the communication layer that's going to be lessened coming out of the Fed. All of those things I think attributed to this expansion up to where we are right now at a 55% chance of a rate hike. Further into that, you've got Goldman Sachs saying that there's now 15% chance of a recession. I feel like there has always been a 15% chance, but it had previously said there was a 25% chance. So maybe they see it on the other side where Bank of America sees it on the high side. Uh here we go. We got a largest IPO in history is down 18%. This of course is SpaceX coming in. It dropped for the third straight session on Monday falling from 225 to 185. But remember, this thing opened at around 1:30. Only 4% of shares are currently tradable with a uh remaining 96% locked until December.

[00:12:18]Also, there's a big unlock coming up in August. So, I anticipate there's a lot of people watching for that one as well.

[00:12:24]The packs are now targeting Maryland and New York primaries, of course, as Clarity faces a critical week ahead around the July recess. And this is the the concern I have with Clarity right now. I know many of you guys are thinking, are we going to get this or not? I feel less and less likely that this is going to go through. If you look at the poly market on it, and I shouldn't say go through, I should say in this current session, 2026 could still six could still rise, but coming after the midterms more likely will be the case. And that will most likely push into 2027. Currently dropping to its lowest point really since all the way back here, which was in January of this year, guys. So, think about that right now. holding at 45% of a chance to get done. One last question right here. This is where the money has been going. This is Micron, guys. Now, if you don't know who Micron is, they basically are a chip manufacturer and uh data manufacturer for storage. You probably if you know what an NVME drive is, these guys are the ones that make those or many of them. This company is now the 14th largest company in the world. And a lot of this AI money, I think, is starting to rotate into Micron. chart has continued to fly. So, it's one to watch because is there a rotation cycle that could be running? Meaning, what would be next? If you're looking for, you know, not the picks and shovels of AI, now we're looking for maybe the money for AI, which is crypto. So, a lot of opportunities here. Matt Hogan comes on and he says, "This market uncertainty is the issue." Take a look. You could buy AI stocks which double every day. Uh, and boring companies like Micron become trillion dollar behemoth.

[00:14:09]Jensen is anointing new trillion dollar behemoths every day. I think it's Marvel now. Or Yeah. Or you could buy crypto where the polyarket odds say there's a 50% chance that the most important piece of crypto legislation will fail in Congress. And um that's just a hard choice to make, right? like uh the market hates uncertainty more than it hates bad news and that is actually uncertainty. I think we'll be better off when we get past the clarity act because it's this sort of damocles hanging over crypto and I do think it's keeping money out of the market. It's one of the one of the major things that keeping keeping people from allocating >> and and from a narrative standpoint it's like I'm tired of talking about it.

[00:14:51]>> All right. So I I'm kind of on the fence as to whether it's keeping money out of the market. think the Fed uncertainty is probably more and you know to Matt's point uncertainty in general is definitely there. I look at the macro uncertainty which of course is driven out of what's happening in Iran and then I think clarity now based on what we're seeing and hearing maybe has less and less of an impact but at the same time it could be an impact for the midterms.

[00:15:19]meaning a lot of people could start to go into single issue voting even at the midterms and really understanding that.

[00:15:26]So it still has a lot of power on Wall Street and it has a lot of power on what's happening in DC. So be on the lookout guys. This is going to be a big big summer going forward because we are leading into the midterms once we get past this July 4th push that of course starts to put things into a new hopefully a new macro cycle that will change things up here in the market.

[00:15:54]If you like this video, hit like and subscribe. Drop a comment down below and also join our free private member group.

[00:16:00]The link is in the description.