Historical market data shows that during oil shocks, markets recover with an average 22.7% increase within 12 months, demonstrating market resilience; effective investment strategy during market downturns involves broad diversification by purchasing quality assets across all sectors when prices decline, with recommended entry points between 5-10% market drops, rather than waiting for specific opportunities or concentrating on individual stocks.
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What I'm Buying During the Market Sell-OffHinzugefügt:
[music] My name is Bryce and today I'm joined by my financial adviser Matt Ingram. Matt, welcome. Hey >> Bryce, thank you. Thanks for having me.
>> So much going on in markets at the moment. How have you been approaching discussion with clients during a time where we can wake up every morning and there's a new piece of information to try and consider.
>> There's a lot of information out there at the moment. Depending on what you listen to or what you read, some of that information makes things sound very alarming and cause for panic. There's more level-headed sources of information as well that fortunately I think a lot of our clients are a bit more tuned into.
>> So the conversations haven't been so much around the the panic and the hype of everything going on. It's more about the resilience of markets.
>> So you guys have touched on this sort of thing. Um so have a lot of sources but just when you look at recent and when I say recent past few decades oil shocks so when the price of oil moves quickly you know 25% in a week or more which it has recently you look at the track record of how markets have responded to that sort of shock in recent times and it's pretty uh optimistic from here. So history shows that of the last six times this has happened since 1990, five out of those six times markets are higher 12 months later, actually an average of 22.7% higher 12 months later.
>> Awesome.
>> So that's that's the ASX, but it's just to say that markets can be pretty resilient and that leaves out a lot of the nuance of what's going on now, >> but all coming back to there is light at the end of the tunnel here.
>> Yeah. Well, I mean, look, we talk about it on the show so many times, which is the market always overcomes not only just oil shocks, but so many other economic shocks and uh as you said, history shows that we often well, we always actually come out on the other side. So then let's turn specifically, how have you been making the most of this opportunity? What actions have you been taking in client portfolios? And I think also importantly, what have you not been doing? So, there's a few things playing out here um that that we've been capitalizing on or taking the opportunity. When risk comes off, risk appetite for equities, when it comes off, everything's down, right? For the same reason, people just don't want to be in risky assets. So, the easiest trade you'll ever make is just buying a little bit of everything because everything's down. That just comes back to building up the the core or the guess passive part of the portfolio going broad-based. So topping up a little bit of that, I mean a lot of markets have been at recent highs sort of earlier this year. So to get a pullback in there is just an easy entry point.
>> Just on that, do you have a number of like a draw down number that you wait for? I.e. if it's down 2% this is my strategy. If I wait till it's down 5% then we get in. How do you actually think about deploying in that moment?
>> Yeah. I mean down 2% really means >> nothing in the grand scheme of things.
Yeah, >> we're sitting on there.
>> But once you're starting to see that 7 8 9% at least starting to average in could be a good opportunity. Definitely not chucking everything in. We're definitely sitting at a slightly higher cash allocation in times like these even with the recent ceasefire announcement. Like we're by no means out of the woods yet.
So, but starting to enter between that 5 and 10% mark.
>> Okay. So, taking opportunities broadly, buying a bit of everything. What else?
>> Yeah. Yeah. And uh with other sectors that have just been sold off or or hit especially hard for perhaps other reasons. So, tech has been hammered early this year with AI concerns, AI spending, um just the implications of AI on what it means for revenue streams for a lot of businesses. That's been a bit of an opportunity to enter into some just good quality thematics. Again, buying a little bit of everything. So, I've started buying a bit of a tech for the first time >> ever. Before it was more about picking particular holdings within that.
>> Now, when the whole sector is down, that's a bit more attractive. Things like uh hack or just that broader cyber, you know, that's been whacked.
AI agents are going to somehow solve all the world's cyber security needs and like these businesses are still going to be vital organizations. So, so things like that and then with the more direct names, keeping it big, right? I'm not trying to find anything specky, not trying to find little things that have been whacked to enter into.
>> Big highquality names, Microsoft, Amazon, they're cheaper than they've been for years. Um, and so it's a pretty attractive entry point for for names like that. And then also some like the resources sector rallied very hard.
That's pulled back. It's bounced quite a bit now, but topping up some positions in copper, even just a little bit of gold, broader based commodity and resource ETFs, things like that just to increase bit of exposure there.
>> I like it cuz it's not complicated. It's like take the opportunity when markets are down. Ren and I have been talking about on the show, you're not going to be out of time when this reverts. So it's down. make the most of that the opportunity by broad. You can't go wrong. Well, >> general advice only.
>> Uh and then you know these long-term structural industries, cyber security, Australian technology, like there's nothing sort of special and shiny about these where you're trying to find uncovered gems. Yeah, it's actually in my opinion probably one of the easier times to invest, which sounds a bit counterintuitive given everything that's going on, >> but when everything's looking hot, when everything's at highs and you've got cash sitting there and you're looking for >> specific opportunities, there's a lot more work in that. Just knowing that everything's down, [music] risk will come back into the market at some point >> and you'll write that up at some point.
You've been listening to an Equity Maids media production. [music] This podcast is intended for education and entertainment purposes. Any advice is general advice [music] only and has not taken into account your personal financial circumstances, needs, or objectives. Before acting on general advice, you should consider if it is relevant to your needs and read the relevant product disclosure statement.
If you're unsure, please speak to a financial professional. The host of this podcast and their guests may have positions in the companies mentioned.
Equity Mates Media operates under Australian Financial Services License 540697.
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