Why Stocks NEVER Crash From All-Time Highs

Hinzugefügt: 2026-05-11

[00:00:00]Hello everybody.

[00:00:03]Today is Sunday, May 10th, 2026 and I'm Jason Shapiro with Crow Market Report. There has been a lot of oxygen spent recently um by many market pundits um about whether this stock market is in a bubble.

[00:00:27]And look, I have my opinions on that which I've made known um on Twitter and tried to back it up with some data and in my newsletter and all that, but that's not the point here. The point here, it can be a very fascinating conversation, right? Uh is AI real? Is AI going to produce the profits to make up for the amount that these companies are investing in it? Um, have the stocks gone up too much? Are they overvalued?

[00:01:00]Um, is this like 1999 where things are just going up too far, too fast, getting ahead of itself? Um, and therefore it's going to crash. It's a very interesting conversation and one that both sides can sit here and argue all day long and and and have a great time.

[00:01:20]Um, but I'm going to take a different t.

[00:01:26]I think what we should do is forget it.

[00:01:30]Who cares? Okay. Is it a bubble? Is it not a bubble? Let's take a different tap. Is it a bull market or is it a bare market? Because what we want to do is we want to be long bull markets and we want to be short bare markets.

[00:01:51]So from that point of view, just looking at this chart alone, okay, this is a NASDAQ chart. Here's the long-term NASDAQ chart. Clearly, that's a bull market. The way that I define bull markets is um and I didn't invent this by any means, but uh a bull market is one that reacts well to good news.

[00:02:20]Um and you know, goes up a lot when there's good news and doesn't really go down very much when there is bad news.

[00:02:30]That's a bull market. And a bare market's the opposite. A bare market goes down a lot when there's bad news and doesn't really go up very much when there's good news.

[00:02:42]So, which one are we in right now? And the clear answer is we're we're in a bull market. In particular, when it comes to to the NASDAQ, I mean, look, even the S&P, right? Um, look, clearly uh on on the NASDAQ, we were in a bull market. Look, we're at alltime highs. So, you know, but even besides that, let's use my other way of doing that. And therefore, you want to be trading from the long side in a bull market. That's pretty obvious. Um, and and people are worried that it it it's bubble and therefore you're going to wake up one day, it's going to crash. I'm telling you, and I have said a million times, markets do not crash from an all-time high close.

[00:03:28]And people will point to me and say, "Oh, but look what happened when you said that about silver. silver went down 30% in a day and that's true. Um, but silver in all fairness did have at least one day um where it had a reversal day, right?

[00:03:49]Um, so it gave you some warning at least is what I'm trying to say. If you're so worried about this being a a a a bubble that's going to crash in your face, there will be at the very least some form of reversal day that will help you to to get short, to hedge your positions, to get out, whatever. Um, that's so rare anyway. You can look at all the crashes crashes the internet bubble of 2000. It did not close at a high one day and the next day it was down 30%. Okay, it took a long time. The crash of 87, the market topped in August, crashed in October.

[00:04:34]The crash of 2008, market topped in the summer of 2007, didn't crash until October of 2008.

[00:04:42]Right? So, my point being, forget it. Forget the bubble thing. All right.

[00:04:52]um concentrate on the bull market, bare market thing. When it goes from bull to bare, the market will tell you it will first thing that will happen is it will stop reacting well to this good news. Um some AI thing will come out, some earnings thing will come out on one of the AI stocks something, you know, maybe Nvidia earnings come out soon, blows away expectations and the market can't go up anymore on that news.

[00:05:20]uh that'll be a sign doesn't guarantee but it will give you a risk sign the market is no longer acting as a bull market all right um and look the example that I can give on the opposite side is this market right here on on right here and it wasn't the exact level was here stopped acting as a bare market right it was right here on the 2nd of April the bare market which was very minor there. Um, started before the war, but really started happening during the war cuz oil prices were going up. It was inflationary. Interest rates had to go higher because of that inflationary thing and therefore it was bad for stocks. Well, on this day, oil was up 12% on the day. It was a week Friday.

[00:06:13]Donald Trump was saying that he was going to obliterate Iran over the weekend, meaning the war was going to escalate. Oil prices were up 12% on a day. Stock market went down, as you can see on this tail and then closed up.

[00:06:30]It was no longer going down on what the narrative was that was driving it down.

[00:06:34]It gave you a hint. Did it give you a hint that we were going to do what we did? No. Okay. But it gave you a hint that tone was no longer bearish.

[00:06:45]It was no longer acting like a bare market. So something will happen here that this will stop acting like a bull market and then you can get short, get into your bubble mode, do do whatever you want. Um but until then, I just don't see any reason to be to be doing that. Just concentrate on again try to put the bubble out of your mind. Try to predict bubbles out of your mind. Okay, it'll crush you.

[00:07:10]Um, and I'll just say one more thing. I got a crush in late 1999 predicting a bubble because I had been through one earlier in the early 90s in Hong Kong and I was young and I was on that side of it where I was buying everything. It was fun. I didn't know what a bubble was. I knew what it was going up and I was making a ton of money and it was great. And of course when it ended I got caught and lost all my money. So in late 99 I knew what that looked like. So I was going the other way. Well, started shorting it in the summer of of 99. The market went up like 70% from the summer until until it ultimately topped.

[00:07:44]So, I was right. It was a bubble. But, you know what? I was wrong both in time and in price by a long shot. So, it's dangerous. If I had waited until it was upon confirmation, I never would have shorted it all the way until about January or February of 2000, which is when the top was. So this is the best advice I can give you about this. Forget bubble. Just trade the things acting like a bull market. Trade from the long side market. Bare market trade from the short side. Period. The end. I think that will help a lot. Okay. Thanks for listening. I hope this helps and uh I hope everyone is doing well and and has a good