Stocks Keep Hitting New Highs… Even As Macro Gets Worse

Añadido: 2026-05-31

[00:00:00]It wouldn't shock me if we have IPO prices that are the dead ball high print for 10 years in AI stocks. You know what I mean? Like and and I will be out there participating in shorting them.

[00:00:10]>> The Strait of Hormuz is still closed, but oil prices are falling. The markets are overbought, but still rising and making new all-time highs. How should investors and traders be navigating these volatile market conditions? And what is the rest of 2026 going to bring?

[00:00:24]Hello and welcome to Milk Road Macro, the podcast that's here to remind you to close your shorts. I'm your host John Gillan. Today is Thursday, May 28th, and today we are joined by Tony Greer. Tony is a veteran macroeconomic strategist, trader, and the founder of TG Macro, an independent research firm he launched in 2016 after more than 25 years trading at firms including Goldman Sachs and UBS.

[00:00:45]He is best known as the editor of the Navigator newsletter and the Macro Dirt podcast, where he delivers fundamental, technical, and behavioral analysis of global markets to institutional and retail investors alike. Tony is a wealth of knowledge and experience, and he's going to share a ton of alpha with us today. If that sounds good to you, make sure you like and subscribe. Share this episode with somebody who's going to enjoy it. And without further ado, welcome back to Milk Road Macro, Tony Greer. How are you, sir? How you doing?

[00:01:11]>> What an intro, man. I got to save that.

[00:01:13]That was amazing.

[00:01:14]>> [laughter] >> Oh, thanks. I I try to prepare well for my guests to make them feel welcome.

[00:01:19]Uh Tony, I think uh you I've heard you talking a lot about this. I really wanted to get your thoughts on this.

[00:01:23]I've I've been looking forward to ask you about this. The strait is still closed, as I said. A lot of people have been expecting oil to go much higher than it currently is. And now oil is coming down. How do you reconcile this as a trader? Is this whole market a fugazi? What what's going on with this here?

[00:01:36]>> I love that you used fugazi. Yeah, you know, it's like it does feel like that.

[00:01:41]You know, the strait has been closed since we know since March 1st. 20% of crude oil traffic is not getting through. We saw a big spike to, you know, what it was it? 120 or 110 or so, you know. This is the unwind, if you ask me.

[00:01:56]You know, re- regardless, like I can't really listen to President Trump tweet about ceasefires, you know, and then and then see anything but that going on on Twitter and you know, watching the timing with which he's making those calls. Like all I can do is surf last sale, you know, and it feels like this week I've been having a come-to-Jesus moment where I won't say I was in the camp where I was expecting $200 oil or anything like that, but I was definitely in a camp that we were going to set off a little bit more of a commodity themed spike in the markets based on oil rallying getting that hot CPI PPI number last week and I felt we were going to have a little bit of a new natural resources resurgence and that's not happening. So, the semi bubble is getting bigger and I don't want to talk about that. Let's get back to oil. What it looks like as oil dips into the night below $90 here, spreads are all the way into their lows that they've seen since this conflict started. Right? So, they're back to levels that they were trading at when we first went, you know, when we first closed the Strait of Hormuz and went to conflict with Iran and everything like that. So, to me the episode is pretty much close to over. And when you think about the fact that, you know, gas prices inflation adjusted are kind of, you know, pretty static to where they've been for over the last 10 or 20 years, there's not that much of a spike to worry about in energy prices. So, you know, this is a kind of a new flavor for me. I kind of you're catching me right on the cusp of really pivoting my book as I abandon the idea that we have to have higher prices in oil for longer just because the straits closed, just because I listened to too many oil experts on the internet. Right? That's my fault. That's totally my fault. I hear smart people saying, "Oh, well, we're going to have $150, $200 oil." And I listen.

[00:03:56]You know what I mean? So, that was the biggest fault of mine to to put so much weight into these flapping gum economists and other traders like just like me who are trying to figure it out just like me.

[00:04:08]You know, and I'll say now that it looks like the episode is ending. So, I'm trying to pivot. I'm trying to give, you know, I I'm tr I'm trying to give some sectors in technology a little bit more of a I'm not I'm not weighting them yet. I'm not long any technology, but like I'm I'm trying to abandon my my inner natural resources bull right now. So, it looks like with the spreads coming in, with oil settling back under $90, I feel like we're getting diminishing returns on the idea that the trade is closed and that means oil has to go up.

[00:04:41]So, that's where we are. Yeah.

[00:04:43]>> We are at a very crucial point in time right now. AI stocks have ripped.

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[00:05:06]>> Just to kind of recap here. I appreciate you sharing your thoughts cuz this is something I've been wondering about a lot. Um it seems like the the the shortage of of energy is is still playing out, but you're saying that the market is kind of said, "Hey, we're at the top. We've seen the top and we're going down." Let me ask you about this.

[00:05:21]There's been a huge spike in inflation prints recently, CPI, PPI.

[00:05:26]And a lot of that was attributed to this rise in energy costs that people have then backwards attributed to the shortage in oil. Do you think that that inflation continues here, and do you think that the Fed is going to have to hike as a result of that continued inflation pressure, or do you think that's behind us now, too?

[00:05:41]>> I am extremely on the fence about that.

[00:05:43]You know, it's a really tough one. I got a feeling, you know, this is something that's really interesting.

[00:05:49]There's a kind of There's a push and pull going on here, right? Between inflation in the headlines and the bond market is going to have to react to that, and it has, right? We saw rates spike up right in the wake of inflation data. They all broke out, and then as Kevin Warsh, who was supposed to be the hawk, put his hand on the Bible or on whatever book the Fed chairman swears in on, rates have nose-dived since then, right? Like right back into range. Like we had a big spike with the CPI number, and we had them come right back into range just as fast as Kevin Warsh got sworn in. So, it's like, "Hey, we're going to look for inflation coming in the headlines, and we're going to have higher bond yields, and oh, no, we're not, because Kevin Warsh is going to do what President Trump wants and get rates to 1.5%, and that's it, right?" So, you know, it's really that's the push and pull that's going on here. And I have a feeling now, for me with oil, just kind of giving up this giving up the sort of red alert ghost, where the first thing I have to look at in the morning is the oil price. You know what I mean? That's no longer We're We're fatigued from that. We're no longer looking at that. We're heaving supplies and inventories into the rally, you know, like we're certain that there's going to be supply coming online. So, I'm trying to give that story a little credit and not expect so much headline inflation in the future, like where I was a couple of weeks ago, and then getting the inflation data last week and thinking that it was going to be confirmed. The market's telling me that I shouldn't be worrying so much about it. So, I'm going to stop.

[00:07:27]>> Okay. That That makes sense. I mean, that you're taking the information the market's giving you and reacting to that. Um let's talk about the market here, because the stock market has been on a historic rally, one of the the sharpest, strongest rallies you've ever seen. We keep making new all-time highs.

[00:07:40]We're recovering again this morning, I think, on the S&P. Um, do you think we still have room to run here? Are you worried about a top? Like, what are you seeing for the outlook on the stock market here?

[00:07:49]>> Well, John, I'm trying to pair my recent view that interest rates don't you need to really grind higher with constant inflationary pressure. I'm backing off that view, and I'm backing into a more neutral rate view to the point that I'm kind of like not expecting anything, and I'm going to wait and see observably what rates do and make decisions from there.

[00:08:13]Um, but with the idea now that rates backed off as Walsh got sworn in, and now oil's backing off, and I'm not that crazy about inflation like I was a couple of weeks ago, I get bullish stocks.

[00:08:26]Right? Because what the My call before we got Put it this way, before the Iran war and oil spiked to 130, my call was there is no trade in the bond market.

[00:08:37]Rates are range bound, they're going nowhere, and the equity market loves it.

[00:08:43]The equity market is convinced that rates are stuck in a range, and if that's going to be the case, and everybody's comfortable with the price of money right now, stocks love that.

[00:08:51]Right? So, we had that going for us, and I got a feeling if you know, if we managed to get the inflation scare out of the picture and have Walsh listening to the president and trying to get rates down, I mean, I'm I can get really bullish to stock market. You know what I mean? We just saw semiconductors rally full full force into the inflation spike in rates, which I thought was really impressive for semiconductors. You know, like, they could have at least stopped going up while we had this rate rip higher um 2 weeks ago, and they really didn't They weren't phased at all. I mean, it took Nvidia to to do its usual routine of beating earnings, having and stock sell off into support, and then we make new highs in 2 weeks. That's pretty much what's going on, right? Nvidia reported, backed off, and what was interesting to me is that Nvidia reported good news, backed off, had a negative reaction, which is often the end of a bull market rally, but not for Nvidia cuz it's different. And as Nvidia was backing off 3% last week into the earnings kind of sell off, semis were up 4% into a new all-time high. So, no, semis don't even care about Nvidia anymore.

[00:10:06]As it stands.

[00:10:07]>> So, okay. You you're getting bullish on stocks. You're bullish on semis. Uh do you think that this broadens out beyond semiconductors?

[00:10:14]Do you think it stays heavily concentrated? What is your expectation here?

[00:10:17]>> You know, it has. Semis were a one-trick pony at the beginning of the year with their chest out among the oil services and oil names that were ripping when oil was on its highs. Then they're back right there above, um you know, with with solar stocks and rare earths when when they're still ripping. But what we've had in the year-to-date race is, you know, AI stocks have caught up quite a bit. With software short covering off the bottom, we're having a cybersecurity rally. Cybersecurity is up 16% this year, you know, under normal conditions, that's a damn good year. So, I'm no longer I'm no longer partici- I'm not thinking about the SaaS apocalypse and and software being under the under the gun anymore because software's come roaring back.

[00:11:00]You know, with the semiconductor rally or at least off the bottom, you know, software was down 20-something, almost 30% on the year um a couple of weeks ago. It's down 10% on the year, probably going to trade unchanged before it's over. You know, the whole thing is just really, really slippery in terms of, you know, I'm a guy that does well when markets trend, and there are trades out there, and the S&P is trending, but we've got really different, you know, it was wild year that we've had. We had natural resources out in front first, metals and mining, gold miners, and then we had oil takeover because of the Iran war, then we had semis takeover because they're in a bubble. Now we have oil back. So there's a lot of a lot of changing moving parts to this year.

[00:11:43]Where on a lot of years it's like, "Yeah, man, this is the theme that the market's trading on, the dollar's doing this, rates are doing this, and stocks are doing this."

[00:11:53]And now it's very much, you know, obviously with the fog of war, you know, we had that little VIX spike up towards 20, and now a total receipt, you know, recession out into the uh mid-teens and stuff. So that kind of scares me where it sets up for like a summer VIX melt. You know, if we kind of calm down the the rhetoric on the Iran war, and maybe if Israel stops bombing everybody else over there, I don't know.

[00:12:16]But if we can stop the bombs from going off, we could be set up for like a summer VIX melt where we just have volatility into the 15, and and all of a sudden you look up in the S&P is, "Wow, 8,200 bid, and the semiconductor rally is still going." That would not shock me at all, especially if we're not going to have this rate spike due to inflation.

[00:12:37]You know what I mean? I'm trying really hard to get it right and not worried so much about being right. You know what I mean? Which means that like I, you know, I can have I can answer these questions with you, but my pad I'm not going to let it lose money, and I'm going to make sure that I'm trying to move towards the next breakout that's happening. And today it looks like, you know, we're getting a breakout in um aerospace and defense today. Like there are there are sectors that are still ripe to trade higher. So I'm going to I'm going to be looking at those for some alpha between now and the end of the year with an upside bias in equities, if that's there.

[00:13:10]>> Got you. Okay, so you're you're saying there's been a lot of dispersion, a lot of volatility, but you're trying to stay focused on what the market's telling you, finding those opportunities as opposed to getting dogmatic about what you want to see happen here. Makes a lot of sense, a lot of wisdom in that.

[00:13:24]>> Yeah, that's my general MO is that I I literally I I try to refrain from having too many views. Like I like to sit here and study objectively what observably happened and decide where the risk reward is in a place that I can exploit it. Right? So, I'm not a guy that sits here and says, "Well, I think that semis have to trade XYZ multiple or I think that That's not me. So.

[00:13:49]>> All right. I have a question about this.

[00:13:50]Something we haven't seen happen before in the markets is the Trump administration took a position in Intel.

[00:13:56]And I think they're up 3x on that investment. Um I'm I'm really >> [laughter] >> I'm really curious if you think about this in terms of like is this something investors should watch to happen more of in the future? Is this sort of like a one-off thing? Or like is the government going to be buying individual stocks now?

[00:14:10]>> I think it's relevant. Okay? I I think it's something Put it this way, you're a stock investor and the president buys a piece of Intel, you better pay attention. Right? Like they're they're We're starting from that point that sounds like we should be paying attention. In my opinion, it's sort of the semiconductor theme for resource nationalism. Right? In the In the same way that we partnered with a bunch of mining companies and rare earth companies and MP materials and things like that, we are securing our supply chain and we don't give an F about who's upset about how we're doing it kind of thing. You know what I mean? And I kind of think that the investment in Intel was maybe, you know, and I'm not a I'm not I'm not a political animal like this, but maybe it was a show of strength to say that we're not as dependent on a foreign country for our chips and things like that. And I don't know the trade balance of chips, but he did it for a reason. Right? And And whether it was symbolic or whether it was, you know, for a real investment, who the hell knows?

[00:15:05]For you know, whatever it was, you got to pay attention to that. Right? So, it to me, it's just another expression of the White House saying the government is going to be a part and parcel of these operations that we deem ultimately absolutely critical to our economy. I could be wrong.

[00:15:23]>> No, I I I agree with that and I think that that's how the Trump administration views this rally overall is sort of like a matter of national security.

[00:15:30]Um another thing that I think a lot of investors are wondering that are is coming to the markets uh this year in 2026 is all these IPOs from names like SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic. There's maybe around I think estimates around $4 trillion of IPOs that might hit the markets. How are you thinking about this? Are you trading this or what what's your anticipation for how this impacts the markets?

[00:15:49]>> What I'm going to watch for is I'm going to just see if this is another AOL for Time Warner type of headline that marks the top of a generational rally. You know, and I'm not saying that it's going to. I was looking for a top in Nvidia when Jensen Wang signed that woman's breasts. I thought that was an unbelievable sentiment bomb. Like, what?

[00:16:10]And you know, that was like 60% ago in Nvidia. So, tech is a different animal.

[00:16:14]It doesn't It doesn't behave normally like all of the old market axioms you could apply. But, I'm going to see if this semiconductor rally stalls as we get to the IPOs that take up all the oxygen and capital in the room and now all of a sudden I can trade semis for a 30% pullback or something like that. You know what I mean? Because that was, you know, the top of the tech market is we're going into space.

[00:16:39]You know, or something like that. But, I'm definitely looking for it as something that could be a sentiment top, right? Especially if we have Nasdaq and the S&P rallying right into those points. I'm not going to say that I'm going to sell into it, but I'm going to be really conscious that I may need to part with things as these IPOs take up a lot of liquidity in the markets, if that's fair. I I've got my eyes wide open to what's going on.

[00:17:05]>> Right. Okay, so just so I understand, it sounds like you're maybe not looking to trade the IPOs themselves, but looking for second-order opportunities in the market that come because of the IPOs pulling out a lot of capital. Is that kind of the way you're thinking of this?

[00:17:17]>> Exactly. I haven't traded a tech IPO in my life and I'm not starting at 57.

[00:17:22]>> [laughter] >> Okay. Well, I hope our audience takes a lesson from that. Tony, I want to pivot here a little bit. I I want to ask you about gold and precious metals. You know, you like you said at the beginning of the conversation, you were kind of expecting more of a bullish momentum swing into commodities, natural resources. I I heard you on a podcast recently say that one of the easiest trades right now is just being long gold and it looks like we've seen a pullback and gold hasn't really kind of recovered from that the mania that we saw earlier this year. What is your outlook for gold here? Do you still think this is the easiest trade right now? What what's your thoughts on this?

[00:17:53]>> I love it because it's doing what I need it to do when other trades that I'm trying aren't generating really great returns for me.

[00:18:03]Right quite honestly, like I've got some stuff right, I've got some stuff wrong.

[00:18:06]Every anybody that reads me knows that we just have we made a whole [ __ ] ton of money this year and we gave like half of it back. Right? So, I'm in a position I'm in a position of like, you know, take the air out of the ball, preserve capital, play a little bit of defense here and there. So, I like what gold is doing because it's very quietly holding on to its bullish technical trend.

[00:18:28]It is low volatility where the other things that I'm trading are all over the map, right? So, I've kind of got these pockets of my pad that the P&L is very volatile and then I've got this cozy zone over here where I've got wads of capital just sitting there waiting to be deployed, but I keep my capital in gold for the most part, right? It's the Tony Dayton trade. Let gold be the bank and over time you'll do better than if you leave it sitting at Chase earning 30 basis points. Right? Having the money in gold and saying, "Okay, I'm going to use dollars for something now." Sell gold, take the dollars, buy whatever you want.

[00:19:06]So, for me as who looks at gold as like my bank a little bit, I don't mind that it pulled back off the highs. I don't mind that it pulled into support. All I know is that it's holding value and you know, the market's only got so much attention.

[00:19:21]And we had all of our attention fixated on gold for months while it went up through 5K and then silver finally went berserk and all the silver bulls were tweeting at every handle, "Look, woo, we, 83, yay, 999." You know, and they got all that stuff out and now you know, here we are back in you know, reasonable prices in gold and silver.

[00:19:44]They're both maintaining their bullish posture and when we clear through this fog of Iran war and AI trade, we're going to notice that like, "Wow, that Iran war was expensive and wow, we blew up a lot of bombs and expended a lot of military force here.

[00:20:03]So, we're going to need to pass a bill where we're going to need to spend a couple of trillion trill dog to replenish the military." You mean that's coming, right? That's definitely coming and that's when you get the gold reflex loop going again where it's like, "Oh my god, look at our deficit, 40 trillion dollars." You know, those were the those were the data points that were getting gold to put in another $70 rally, you know, when we were watching it on the way up, you know. So, gold is lulling everybody to sleep in a bull market, an amazing trend which I really love and there is nothing to me that is there's nothing to me that's changed about the death of fiat currency. It's just not a popular trade right now because there's so much capital going into other things, into the semi trade, into the oil markets to figure that out and into the data center trade or however you want to carve it up, you know. I mean, there's a dozen bull markets out there that you you can chase if you want. So, that's how I feel about gold. It's lulled people to sleep and I think it's in great shape.

[00:20:59]>> Okay, so there's a lot of things you brought up there I want to come back to, especially this debasement trade idea, but I do want to get your thoughts on silver here cuz you brought that up as well. Silver right now, I think is around $75 an ounce.

[00:21:10]Um and a lot of just like you said, the silver bulls were really calling for much higher prices on silver. They got kind of a blow-off, uh but then kind of a a pullback. Do you think that this, you know, resurgence in gold and silver, is that a 2026 thing? Is it a 2027 thing? What what's your thoughts on that here?

[00:21:25]>> Oh man, you know, that's really hard to tell. Uh >> [sighs] >> I do you know, I I won't say when it is going to be, but I will say that until we get oil prices off of the top of everyone's radar screen. I like no matter what as a trader, you're still waking up to say, "All right, what did they say about the strait? Is it Ask Grok every morning, is the Strait of Hormuz open? Grok says no, right? So then at least I know that the oil price is doing what it's doing for what reason, right? If it's backing off, the strait still closed, that means that we're heaving inventories into the market somewhere, right? Um everybody seems to be getting supplied with the oil that they need.

[00:22:04]There was this big scare that there were going to be actual countries that were going to go dry. You know, that didn't happen, so I guess there's a less of a scare there. But silver and gold, silver is doing the same thing, consolidating within a bull trend. I'm totally fine with it. But for me, the the trade gold was the trade. Central banks are inhaling gold, not silver. You know, and when you're in an inflationary environment like this, all of a sudden something will pick up and ignite, right? We just saw it a couple weeks ago around the CPI data.

[00:22:38]Like first wheat took off and was limit up, and then copper ran $1,000 on the LME from 12 to 13K, and then silver did that little run to 90 bucks, right? It's like we're in an inflationary environment, and when proprietary traders and risk managers or risk takers around the world see inflation, they pick a commodity and they say, "I want this on my pad. We're going to have inflation. I just want to make sure that I have commodities on my pet. And that's why you see all these different random spikes in the different commodity markets. So, I guess going back to it, I think silver's okay. I don't I'm not as bullish silver as I'm as I am bullish gold because I think the trade is in gold. If you remember for a while, you know, gold was ripping and silver was sitting there at $35 doing nothing. And the whole world was like, why isn't silver doing [ __ ] anything? Like this is insane. You know, and then it all of a sudden caught up. And that's great, but that tells me that like that was a sideshow.

[00:23:34]You know what I mean? Like it's the silver is still to me it's half a precious metal and half a base metal.

[00:23:40]If I want to buy something to protect my currency, I don't want to really live through the volatility in silver. Gold is doing just fine for me. Let's buy gold. You know, and I don't even for whatever it's worth, I don't really participate in the platinum group metals trades either. I think those are just retail traders trying to sound smart.

[00:23:56]They bought the ETFs because they went up too, and you know, it's like that's going to be a case that's going to be a case of bag holding at some point in in in my opinion.

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[00:26:02]>> Yeah, but for precious metals, gold is enough for your thesis and and that and that kind of makes sense, I think, the way you've explained that. Um I I want to get your thoughts on what you think the market reaction is going to be after this Iran conflict is finally over. Um because I think a lot of people are trying to, you know, see what that's going to be. The market seems to have front-run that seven several times, maybe seven times by now. Um but it seems like the the equities markets get bullish, but you know, one of the the themes that we saw before all this started was this idea of the the debasement trade. Gold was a big part of that, and I want to get your thoughts on that. Do you think that the debasement trade comes back, or do we just go back into a full-blown equities bull market?

[00:26:37]What do you think happens after this conflict?

[00:26:39]>> So, to me, we were in the debasement trade that had a semiconductor side show that that just literally blew up into something spectacular, right? The debasement trade was the main, I think, the main focus of the market with lacking anything else to to really, you know, dial in on.

[00:26:58]Meaning the oil price.

[00:27:00]So, I think when the oil price finally recedes, the first thing that you're going to see is a resumption of the bull market in metals and mining because they're going to take that as their input cost got lowered again.

[00:27:11]You know, like that was the whole reset in industrial metals and mining from uranium to gold miners to industrial miners was the higher oil price, right?

[00:27:22]They have to factor that in now, so that's a higher input cost, so they all pull back into support.

[00:27:28]If the oil price really backs off meaningfully from here and the gasoline price backs off and jet fuel and all that, the whole complex, you know, you'll see airline spike and you'll see gold miner spike and, you know, they'll they'll all get back into trend and then what happens from there, I'm not sure, but I'd be willing to bet that those trends are probably safe for the end of the year.

[00:27:48]Kind of thing. And then it'll just be a question of is the semiconductor side show still getting bigger, you know, are we going to do Nvidia market cap is going to trade flat to China GDP or something like bizarre? Yeah, who knows?

[00:28:01]Who knows? Who knows?

[00:28:03]So, you know, it's just going to be a function of really being ex- maybe I'll expect that, you know, oil to back off, metals and mining to get out in front.

[00:28:12]They'll overtake industrial miners and then the things that'll probably go berserk, rare earths, solar stocks, that you know, the AI trade and something like that. So, man, it's pretty hairy, but I do think that we will resume the the death of fiat currency has not been canceled. You know, it's it's just not the top of everybody's radar screen and it's actually burning in the background of war.

[00:28:35]You know, no matter what, so that's how I'm looking at it.

[00:28:38]>> Yeah, your your point about the market only has so much attention and capital makes a lot of sense, but once this new shiny object that's gotten everyone's attention kind of goes away or calms down, this is still going to be there waiting for all of us on the other side of that.

[00:28:50]I think that's a a really good observation there.

[00:28:52]>> Money's got to go somewhere.

[00:28:54]>> Yeah, that's right. Tony, I I want to get your thoughts on this. I think you've been kind of like wanting, expecting, seeing some kind of bullishness in the commodity space and that hasn't really played out, but I'm really curious if you want to share your your thesis on that, what you were expecting, what you're seeing. Do you think that still happens here at some point and just walk us through your thoughts on that.

[00:29:12]>> No.

[00:29:13]I don't think it >> [laughter] >> I don't think it still happens. Like that was you know, that that I I won't say I got overly excited, but traders have muscle memory, right?

[00:29:23]And when you get the when you're [snorts] expecting inflation in the headlines because you've seen commodity prices all spike right before your face and it's got to translate somewhere, when you get commodity inflation when you get inflation in the headlines and CPI and PPI, if you remember 2022, the normal reaction function is yields go higher and that means that natural resources stocks are going to be bid with the commodity complex, but higher rates means that growth stocks face headwinds.

[00:30:02]Technology is the number one target on the growth stock list, so those usually back off or at least we've had years like 2022 where we see commodity sectors explode with headline inflation all over the tape. That was the year we got to 9 and 1/2% I think and technology back off because yields are higher and people are selling tech stocks to buy natural resources. That didn't really happen at all with this particular onset of inflation and there wasn't enough follow through for me.

[00:30:36]While I expected that when the inflation print hint print hit, there wasn't enough follow through for me to say like, okay, this is the direction that we're going now, right? And and while I'm deciding that this is may not be the direction we're going now, oil drops another $10 and says, "Guess what? We're not going in that direction." Right?

[00:30:55]There's not going to be that much headline inflation. Like 5% like that's probably it. Or whatever it is, you know, so I'm definitely adjusting my thinking.

[00:31:03]I'm trying to respect what's going on and I'm trying not to have as much of a view and just be super flexible mentally to whatever can go on here.

[00:31:12]You know, it could be, you know, and it could be something to the point where there's another secondary spike in oil.

[00:31:18]But my point that I guess I want to make is when you have constant headline inflation in the numbers and you have you're keeping the bond market honest with like dislocations in the bond market because inflation is too hot, in those scenarios traders cling to hard assets, right? So so you'll see all the commodity and hard asset sectors, you know, performing or staying up on the year while, you know, usually the heavier tech stuff goes down and net net it's negative on the S&P, but all of your natural resources sectors can perform beautifully.

[00:31:52]And if we're not going to get consistent headline inflation and consistent beats in inflation to the point that the bond market really has to dislocate lower, then I'm going to kind of abandon that idea that everybody's going to have to run to natural resources. You know, and I I was really kind of lined up that way alongside the natural uh the resource nationalism trade, alongside headline inflation, alongside commodity rallies, and it looks like some of those trades have run their course.

[00:32:22]You know, so I have to respect that and kind of stay nimble for what's going to be the the leg for the next half of the year that I can try to capitalize on, to be quite honest.

[00:32:30]>> Yeah.

[00:32:30]>> And I think that there's a lot of wisdom in that, which is why I wanted you to share with our audience like how you you've adjusted and taken the feedback the market's been giving you here. Um Tony, I want to spend a few minutes here just on mindset cuz you you talked a lot about this throughout this interview, but I think this is really helpful for our audience. One thing I think I've gotten a lot of questions on from our community is, you know, people are worried about top blasting here, right?

[00:32:50]Like we've gone up so hard, so far, so fast in so many of these different equities and semis. People are worried about buying the top, but just like you said, they're also a little bit worried we might wake up in a couple months and be at, you know, 8200 on the S&P. How are you thinking about this for yourself? What do you What do you tell somebody in that situation who's maybe looking for an entry, but worried about buying the top?

[00:33:10]>> Well, I'm always, you know, luckily I had I spent a career as an execution trader, as an execution salesman. So, like well, I could I I look at a chart of anything that I want to buy, including the S&P, and if it's something that I want to buy, and I have the money to buy it, I don't necessarily just pour it into the market, right? You look at it and say, "Okay, objectively, the market I know the market is rich. I know these markets are rich, etc. Where's the price that I'm happy to buy it?"

[00:33:41]Right? And and bid below the markets or at least be patient enough for some kind of a pullback.

[00:33:48]You know, and and that's the only way that you can really do it. Like if Okay, so say you're bullish the S&P or you said, "Hey Tony, I'm the I'm bullish the S&P. I want to buy spy. What would you do?" You know, I look at the chart and say, "Well, we're bid at an all-time high right now.

[00:34:02]Um unless you want to pay the highest price that's ever traded in history, which is fun, and I like doing it, but I don't know that that's where a first dollar investment goes in the S&P.

[00:34:16]You know, I would say like let's pick a really steep moving average like the 10-day or the 20-day or something like that, and eventually we'll get a pullback into that price, and then you can maybe start with a 5% of whatever investment you wanted to put in by dipping your toe and getting off the zero battery.

[00:34:35]Right? So, I don't think it's wrong to buy the S&P. I mean, I don't I right now I'm really I have the S&P price as part of my kind of noise cancellation policy because there's so much sector rotation go on going on and so much dispersion that like I don't really care where the seven biggest stocks in the world are going all the time, right? They have nothing to do with the trades on my pad, so I do not care.

[00:34:58]You know what I mean? If you're trading the S&P, you're just trading Microsoft and Intel and Amazon and Apple and Google and Nvidia and that's about it, right? So, I'm trying to stay you know, really focused on the sector trading that I'm in and trying to trade.

[00:35:12]Um so, that's really it. It's just come up with a game plan and no matter what though, if if if your reward if you patience will reward you. You just have to know that every day that you don't have the position on, you're getting you're kind of paying a reward forward.

[00:35:27]Right? Because you're eventually going to buy something that has backed off.

[00:35:31]So, the first reward is you're not underwater when you buy it. Right?

[00:35:35]Because if you had just bought it when it backs off to this price, you would be underwater. Right? So, you didn't rush in and buy it, you waited for it to come here. And now at least you have a moving average that it was surfing up where if it breaks that moving average, you could say, "Oh, okay. I may have bought near the highs here and this is maybe going to back off because it's starting to curl through the moving averages." And that's totally fine. If you're weighing into a position, you could say, "Great.

[00:36:00]I'm a bid here, here, and here." So, that's it, but it's it's it's one of those things where it's it's never a rush in and pay less sell unless the market's collapsing and the VIX is 35 bid. Then don't wait. You know what I mean? You can you can also sit around like I have like what I call like a rainy day puddle in my um in my trading account that I leave in cash just for you know, for God forbid you wake up in the VIX is 30 bid.

[00:36:24]Right? It's like I'm going to be buying something in that scenario, you know, in in a total total, you know, market fear puke kind of kind of scene. So, that's the way I'm approaching if that's fair.

[00:36:35]>> Yeah, no, there's a lot of a lot of wisdom in that, too. It's I think that's very helpful for the audience. Uh I got got a couple more questions here cuz we're getting close to time, but I do want to ask you this. Uh we've seen this sort of like secular bull run that's just seems like inexhaustible. And but a lot of people are also calling this a bubble. Is there anything that you're looking for in your mind to say like, "Hey, maybe the market has turned. Maybe we have topped. We're going into a bear market." Is this not something that's in your on your radar right now? Or like how do you think about that?

[00:36:59]>> You know what You know what got me bullish, man? You know, it's like Larry Fink coming out the other day and saying, "Just by the way, uh this AI data center stuff, you're paying for it from your savings and your pensions, not the big tech billionaires that are going to profit from it. You." That is powerful.

[00:37:16]Right? That is so powerful.

[00:37:19]Like if that doesn't like smack you in the face and say, "Yeah, you just you got to be long the markets, long technology." Like you know, if I'm going to pay for the data center build-out and they're going to profit, the only thing I could do is be long tech to fight that. You know what I mean? But you know, so it's it's like, "Oh man, like these guys aren't joking. Like they're going to actually peel the costs out of us somehow." Like that's bullish.

[00:37:41]>> A lot of people are calling it a bubble and it seems like it's just never going to end. And I like I'm just curious how you think about that.

[00:37:47]>> The AI thing, you know, I'm going to watch closely when when you know, when they go public, right? That like it wouldn't shock me if we have IPO prices that are the dead ball high print for 10 years in AI stocks. You know what I mean? Like And and I will be out there participating in shorting them on the day of the IPO.

[00:38:04]That is a That is a tech IPO that I'll participate in that way saying like, "Okay, somewhere around the first two or three days, this thing's going to find the top because all of the tech bull dogs are going to be selling into it for liquidity."

[00:38:19]I can take a chance doing that.

[00:38:20]>> Okay. All right. Well, we'll keep an eye and see what happens then. Uh Tony, I want to ask you a couple more questions here. You hosted your first uh TG Macro conference, I think, earlier this year. You're already planning for the next one, and I wanted to just get your thoughts on this. What were some takeaways from that conference, and what are you planning for the next one? And just share a little bit about that with our audience.

[00:38:37]>> Man, thank you for asking that. That that that really warms my heart, John, because my conference, mentally for me, 10 years into TG Macro's founding, the conference put me on the map, finally.

[00:38:50]You know, and and I don't I'm not really a guy that takes a lot of pride in in achievements or things like that, but this was one event that I was extremely proud of, and only because of the overwhelming tsunami of approval and compliments that I got, both while I was there and in the wake of the conference.

[00:39:08]So, what I learned, first of all, the most important thing was that, you know, the in-person event is the new luxury item, and people are so sick of this thing that they are dying to talk to people in person.

[00:39:21]And so, that was the biggest takeaway.

[00:39:24]One of the cooler takeaways was that I had seven speakers. Seven of us were uniformly bullish gold, all with accountable reasons, and gold's a lot lower.

[00:39:34]So, we were a great contraindicator, and no matter what, that's valuable to me, even though we were a contraindicator at my conference. In the big picture, we may all be right, and in the short-term picture, it's like, "Wow, every single one of us, including the guests, are bullish gold here."

[00:39:51]Might be a good time to sell some. I don't know. Just an idea, you know what I mean? Like, uniformly 150 guests and seven SPEAKERS WERE LIKE, "GOLD!" YOU KNOW?

[00:40:00]SO, THAT WAS that was just something to learn from. And what was cool was that everybody thought it was perfect, and I was being like a critical [ __ ] about certain things, and I'm this and that, and I had my little list of things that I wanted to fix. And so, now, with everybody having this amazing response to it, I've got a list of a dozen things that I'm going to make so much better in the next one. And we're about to open up pricing on June 1st to my existing subscribers and last year's attendees.

[00:40:30]So we'll go for a couple of weeks with that, um, and then I'll open it up to the public. But, you know, due to the roster that I was able to put together, the event was spectacular.

[00:40:42]I mean, John, if I I I'll invite you.

[00:40:44]I'd love for you to join us at the next one because man, I had people coming up to me at the dinner which I had on Friday after 2 days of conferences and people coming up to me and they're like, "Dude, how did you do this? This is like a This is like a destination wedding. Like this is unbelievable, you know?" And so that was the That was my major takeaway was that people love in-person events.

[00:41:08]Nashville was the perfect place to throw it. The Virgin Hotel was were great hosts and we're going to be there. We already have a contract to be there the next several years.

[00:41:17]Um, and so that's it, man. I am I'm really excited for the next one. Really excited for this. And it's going to get bigger and better every single year.

[00:41:24]>> Well, I was really excited to see this happen because you are somebody who has a wealth of knowledge and passion and I think you bring together a a very unique group of people uh for a conference like that. So I I'm really glad you're doing that. Uh wanted to make sure our audience was aware. Tony, thanks so much for being on Milk Road Macro. Where can we send people to find more of you and your work online?

[00:41:42]>> John, you are great at interviewing, great at introing. I mean, I should hire you if I could afford you.

[00:41:47]>> [laughter] >> At TG At TG Macro on Twitter. Um, my website is tgmacro.com and our podcast, me and Jared Dillian do a really cool podcast to try to compete with the likes of you people. Um, that is at tgmacro.substack.com.

[00:42:01]So, that's where you can find me.

[00:42:03]>> Tony, thanks so much for being on Milk Road Macro. I hope we can have you back again soon.

[00:42:06]>> Anytime you like, John. That was fantastic interview. Thank you.

[00:42:09]>> Thank you, sir. Thank you you for joining us. I hope you all learned something today. So, until next time, stay safe, stay educated, stay bullish, and we will see you all in the next episode of Milkroad Macro. Thanks for being here, everyone. Bye. Want insights on what's really moving markets and how we're trading each event? Subscribe to our channel, then join the Milkroad Macro and MacroPro newsletters. This show is for educational purposes only.

[00:42:29]Nothing we say is financial advice.

[00:42:31]Investing is risky. Never invest more than you can afford to lose.