Weekly Wrap 29 May

Added: 2026-05-31

[00:00:03]Thank you for joining us for another episode of our weekly wrap. I'm joined today by Bell Financial Group's Chief Investment Officer, Will Rhigol. Will, thanks for joining us this Friday.

[00:00:12]>> Hello, great to see you again, Sophia.

[00:00:14]And I heard um last week's video with uh my colleague Rob Foxton went well, so great to have him on line. He's a always have great always has great insights as well. Uh let's see >> have to get Rob on board um more often, but thanks for joining us today. Might start with the big market moves this week. What's happening in markets?

[00:00:35]>> Yeah, it was Look, it was a we we talked about a consolidation uh in the market expected a couple of weeks ago, and that's largely what we had. Um we did see the US as we talked about we do see positive fundamentals remaining in the US market with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq moving higher. Again, those tech names leading the way. In Australia, we had a broadly uh more challenging start to the week, but we've recovered through the week, and that's come down to a lot of the macro data that's been released.

[00:01:07]That's taken a little bit of the concern that the market has around just where where inflation's going to end up and um what our central banks going to do.

[00:01:18]>> Um so, what was the eco data that came out this week? I know we had a bit of a weaker start to the week, and then um you know, what was the economic news that drove markets? I think macro kind of drove those markets this week.

[00:01:31]>> Yeah, definitely. Look, we did have some geopolitical stuff, and I'll get to that in a minute, but largely on the domestic front we had an an unemployment number come through, and uh we did have a CPI number. So, it's it's a little bit of bad news is good news uh for Australia, and look, the RBA has been tightening uh over the last period and looking to I guess take some of the heat out of the domestic market, and the main indicator that they do look for is the unemployment number. And they I guess they got what they wanted to see this week.

[00:02:04]Um with the unemployment number moving up from 4.5. So look, we were below four most recently, but we have moved higher and that does give them some evidence that their rate increases are starting to take effect. Um we did also have a CPI number come out this week. Look, it's with CPI is higher than they want. Came out at about 4.2%.

[00:02:29]Uh the market was looking for 4.4. So while high, it was uh slightly lower than feared or expected. So those two numbers together has caused central um I guess market estimates around how much and when we will get uh the next rate rise in Australia. It is still factored in, but it's certainly being pushed out. And so bond yields in Australia and offshore, look, this is a broader effect that we're seeing coming through. They did come down and that lower bond yields as uh used as the risk-free rate for how we value our equity markets. Um that lower rate did give uh further support to uh global risk assets and and we did see those stocks move higher again. So look, um if we're talking about the heat coming out, no doubt the the slightly weaker than expected economic data, but I guess the big picture as well was Brent was down over 10% uh as that continuation of you know, what we're looking for uh the pen to get to paper around a uh lease ceasefire or some um documented de-escalation. And I guess we'll have to wait for the weekend to see how that goes, but um so not a bad week for markets, to be honest.

[00:03:42]>> Not a bad week for markets. So how did um the sectors perform this week looking at the ASX 200 leaderboard? What was driving markets?

[00:03:51]>> Yeah, it was look, broadly a continuation of what we've seen in some sense. Um you know, tech was solid uh globally. Uh materials remained uh strong. So, certainly iron ore and and the lithium sector that we'll get to has been a very strong performer. But, what was interesting this week was consumer discretionary um having some people buying bang into it. And that did happen globally as well as domestically. So, uh we did have some retail sales numbers released. And and look, they remained strong. Uh there is a real indication that while inflation and cost pressures are around, there is a level of increases in the minimum wage and such that is causing spending to remain resilient. So, I guess for the RBA they'll see on one hand a resilient but more resilient expected consumer.

[00:04:40]Although, certainly there are points of stress out there. But, on the other hand, that unemployment number slightly higher is a real indicator of future expenditure. So, um that was the most interesting for the ASX today. So, we've got global tech, uh the material sector continued to move higher again. But, a little bit of uh buying coming in around the consumer.

[00:05:01]And look, it seems a little early for me. But, um we'll see where we get to.

[00:05:06]>> And well, we had some uh news headlines from some stocks at Bell Potter or Cover, New Farm, Mineral Resources, uh Genesis. They're all in the news this week. What's been happening?

[00:05:18]>> Yeah, so look, we've over the last few weeks we've seen some of the big names come out. We've talked about the banks and we've talked about BHP and all the quarterly's. But, um this week we're looking at the bread and butter of uh where Bell Potter plays. And And our analysts had a had a very busy week as we talked about. So, Jonathan Seip covering New Farm um was really interesting that the broader ag sector does have that kind of it's all being overshadowed by this expectation of El Niño in Australia.

[00:05:45]But, New Farm with their global business um actually really surprised investors and it was all about that seeds part.

[00:05:52]So, if you look at the result and I encourage you to look into Jonathan's note on NewFarm.

[00:05:59]He's been called it really well and it's coming down to the omega-3. So, usually you get omega-3 from fish, but there the seas in Brazil and and other areas globally where the salmon and the fish are taken out of the water and processed into omega-3, it's too warm. So, that they're just stopping the fishing from there. We've got a shortage. Here we have the prices increased materially and NewFarm is sitting there with a lot of its seeds business, which is processed omega-3. So, better than expected there.

[00:06:31]We have been in resources. Look, MIN has been a great call by James Williamson.

[00:06:35]It continues to surge higher. We're we're up around $70 at the moment and look, it does come down to the lithium price. The spodumene continues to run. We've got a strong EV take-up as we all talk about at the moment and then we've got a shortage. So, it's just as a normal capital and investment cycle leading to an increase in demand and the supply is just not there. So, again with these resource companies, what you see is as price strengthens, those marginal projects become profitable. So, MIN announced this week an expansion to their Mount Marion project lithium of about $190 over the two years. So, what have we got? Increased production, increased growth within a very strong end market commodity there. So, we continue to be positive on that name.

[00:07:26]If I run through a bit quicker, we've got Janus Plus has been a great call by Joe House. It made a major acquisition this week. It continues to continues to perform extremely well. The the acquisition of Empire State Kinetic, an East Coast based oil and gas services business, is an interesting one a little bit outside of where they've made their name but it's kind of showing the growth within this business at the moment and then the last point for Savage commented on APE is our first retail consumer type name and the question is Newcastle is really that discretionary and it appears not at the moment very strong numbers and order books for APE is so look there's a bit of volatility in the name but our analyst remains positive on that one so look that's the round up and we'll continue to communicate with you as we see the world and talk to you about how markets are going but so far so good this week and we look forward to see what next week brings.

[00:08:28]>> Sounds good well we'll touch base again next week will thanks for joining us.

[00:08:33]>> Thanks thank you so much Tiffany thank you all.