Property Market Update | Home prices higher, but growth easing | Dr. Andrew Wilson

追加: 2026-04-29

[00:00:00]You've probably noticed something a little unusual in today's property market. On the one hand, prices are still rising. In fact, they've now been climbing for 14 months in a row, but at the same time, the pace of growth is clearly starting to slow, and that's where things get interesting cuz it isn't a simple boom or bust story anymore. According to Dr. Andrew Wilson, My Housing Market's latest end-of-month report, national house prices are up more than 10% over the past year, yet the most recent monthly growth rate is 0.3 of a percent reflecting that the market's still moving forward but losing momentum. And when you dig deeper, the story becomes even more fragmented. So, what's really going on? Is this just a temporary pause driven by higher interest rates and the holiday season slowdown, or are we starting to see the early signs of a more meaningful shift in our property cycle? And more importantly, what does it mean for you as a property investor or a homeowner? Because the opportunities in a market like this are very different from what we saw a couple of years ago. So, today, I'm joined by Dr. Andrew Wilson, Australia's leading housing economist, to unpack exactly what's happening around Australia's housing markets, where the momentum's building, where it's fading, and what we should be watching more closely over the months ahead. Hi, Andrew. Yeah, good day, Michael. And yes, another positive month overall. Certainly, growth rates have declined, not just the national result, which of course we measure the the results over the quarter. So, it's the April quarter versus the March quarter.

[00:01:28]So, that gives us a good underlying sense of the trend, but we're also measuring a significant number of contributions in terms of the number of sales, so we come up with a robust and reliable number.

[00:01:41]But, no surprise that the rate of growth is there's certainly a number of headwinds, general headwinds of course we know about higher interest rates, interest rate increases in February and March, and of course we've got all that uncertainty around what's happening in the international sphere. And by that of course we mean what's happening in Iran with the US. Oil prices have skyrocketed back to the sort of heights that we had when we had a similar oil crisis, which was during the Ukraine-Russian or the beginning of the Ukraine-Russian war.

[00:02:13]So, the headwinds are the general headwinds are higher interest rates, which of course make property less affordable because you have to pay more with a given income. If your incomes are rising, well, that's okay. You can you can match those higher interest rates.

[00:02:27]And we've got to mention that we had three interest rate falls last year, so I guess we're net one interest rate decline in our advantage in terms of affordability. And incomes have continued to grow in a strong economy since those interest rate cuts last year. But, certainly, confidence has been affected by a lot of negative headlines in terms of the potential for a decline in economic activity due to higher oil prices, and that's quite a reasonable position to take. But, the latest news on oil prices is actually quite positive, prices aren't that far away at the moment at the pump from where they were before the current crisis, I guess we could call it, in Iran. So, not much there in terms of the prospects of higher inflation, particularly in the shorter term. Of course, we need to see how this is all going to pan out, and it's you know, it looks good one week and then not so good the next week. So, it's a volatile environment. But, the other headwind that we have, Michael, is what we have every year, and you mentioned that, and that of course is April is the holiday month, and we tend to get a raft of holiday action, which is started this April with Easter, followed up with school holidays, and then followed up with Anzac Day, which fell on a Saturday, which is a trading day of course typically in the housing market. So, there is a lot of seasonality to be considered in the latest data, the decline in the growth rates, as well as those other factors.

[00:04:01]But, I think it's interesting when we do look at the data, Michael, as you mentioned, we've had another overall quarter or monthly quarter of positive growth. That's 13 in a row now. In fact, it's 14 in a row for houses, up by 0.3 of a percent. Annual growth rate still quite strong at 10.4%.

[00:04:20]But, I think that when we look a little deeper into the numbers, and let's have a look at the the top performers. That was Perth again. That Perth market continues to surge forward, really has a head of steam at the moment, up by 1.5%.

[00:04:32]Darwin as well has been a boom time market over the past 12 months, up by 1.4%.

[00:04:37]Hobart and Brisbane up by 1.2%. Adelaide up 0.3 of a percent, and Sydney higher by just 0.1 of a percent. And Melbourne prices were down, house prices were down by 0.4 of a percent, with Canberra down 1.8%. Now, I think it's important, Michael, for us to I guess explain this is a weighted average in terms of the national house price. It's a weighted average based on capital city activity.

[00:05:03]Now, of course, Melbourne and Sydney are the main producers of activity, highest higher numbers of sales because they are the most populous capitals. So, that means that less activity in those capitals means the overall national house price declines, and that's what we've seen. It's really the impact of weaker Melbourne and Sydney housing markets that's kept that the national result a little lower. So, we need to consider that as well. Now, the other capital city markets are really still moving along quite strongly. As I said, that even though they have the the headwinds of higher interest rates and some effects of confidence, they're still reporting very positive results and really showing no sign of a significant slowdown. Look, lower than where they were over March, but conversely, March is a is a month where we have positive seasonal effects because it's really the first full housing market month of the year because of course it follows another significant period of holiday distractions, and that's January and February. So, all up, really a bit of the same old. We have been saying that the Melbourne and Sydney markets have been those under pressure given the current circumstances, still around about flat for both those markets, but well behind the other most of the other capital cities. When we look at the annual results, Michael, that really does emphasize just how strong the top markets have been.

[00:06:34]And that's Perth, Darwin, Brisbane, and Adelaide. Perth up by 26% Michael over the past year, Darwin 22.8%, Brisbane up 19.9%, and Adelaide up 14.3%. They're certainly very significant increases in in house prices over the past year. Similar result for units.

[00:06:57]The same issues affect units as they do houses. Of course, the higher interest rates, the seasonality impacts as well.

[00:07:05]And you know, issues with confidence in terms of the current international climate. So, unit prices up a little bit higher than house prices, up by 0.4 of a percent, and they're now up by 8.1%. These are national capital city unit prices, up by 8.1% compared to where they were over the April quarter last year. Again, they are impressive. Brisbane was the top performer, up by 1.4%, followed by Perth and Melbourne, each up 1%. And let's note that we mentioned that the Melbourne market was down by 0.1 of a percent for houses, but the unit market in Melbourne is actually doing very well at the moment, Michael, and and running ahead of houses quite considerably. And when we look, as we do every week, at the auction clearance rates, we've seen for a number of weeks now, in fact a number of months, that unit clearance rates have consistently been higher than house clearance rates.

[00:08:02]So, no surprise to see that prices are in units are outperforming houses going forward. So, that's a good strong result for Melbourne units. Canberra up by 0.9 of a percent, Adelaide up by 0.4 of a percent, and Hobart up 0.2 of a percent.

[00:08:17]Now, Sydney unit prices were down, again marginally by just 0.1 of a percent, and Darwin was down by 0.3 of a percent. So, we have that same impact to a certain degree, Michael, with the weighted average, with Sydney being clearly having the most activity for unit sales.

[00:08:33]Of course, it falling just marginally 0.1 of a percent, that did impact the weighted average for the national unit price, that underperformance by Sydney.

[00:08:44]Again, when we look at the annual results, no real difference in terms of what's happening over the past year in unit markets. Perth, Brisbane, Adelaide, and Darwin continue to record the top results in terms of annual growth.

[00:08:58]Perth up 30.2%. These are really quite strong numbers. Brisbane up 27.5% Michael.

[00:09:07]Adelaide up 12.7%, Darwin up 11.8%, but certainly Perth and Brisbane have surging ahead for unit prices over the past year, and absolutely no sign of of slowing down. In fact, when we look at the comparisons for house prices, Michael, Perth is now the is now well, all the capital cities that we've mentioned there, the strong capital cities, and of course, I mean Brisbane, Perth, and Adelaide have overtaken Melbourne in terms of the median house price, and the Perth median house price is now just below the Brisbane median house price, Michael, and set to move into that second place behind Sydney.

[00:09:47]So, it just shows you how strong that Perth market is at the moment, and just no sign of slowing down. And as when we look at the other factors that drive housing markets every week. Of course, we keep seeing all those positives in terms of supply levels, demand levels in the Perth housing market. So, in a way, Michael, we know that Perth had a a very flat period following the end of that second mining boom, which was more than a decade ago, and perhaps it's making up for lost time now. I'm not sure it'll get back to where it was once upon a time, and that was as high as Sydney, but it's it's giving the other markets a real run for their money at the moment.

[00:10:26]Yeah, some headwinds, which were, I guess, predictable for housing market activity, particularly seasonal headwinds as we get this time of the year following the positive seasonal effects of March, we now get the negative seasonal effects of February, but we're still getting positive price growth and continually very positive growth in those big four capital cities that we continue to mention. I just wanted to remind you that this is not specific investment advice because we don't know your personal circumstances, but we're more than happy to have a chat to help you take advantage of the opportunities the current property markets are offering. So, why not have an obligation-free chat with one of the wealth strategists at [music] Metropole to discuss your goals, your options, and what you could do. We're much more than just another buyer's agent. We help you safely create intergenerational wealth through strategic property and wealth advice. Remember, property investment is a process, not an event. So, you can't just go out and buy any property and [music] hope to be successful. In fact, now more than ever, getting the right advice is critical. [music] So, if you're looking to invest in property or buy a home, go to metropole.com.au and organize a time for an obligation-free chat. You're going to find that at Metropole, we're big enough to tip the scales in your favor, but still small [music] enough to care. And since we don't have any properties to sell, our advice is independent [music] and unbiased. Andrew, often people leave comments, "Why is Dr. Wilson's figures different to other reports? And I like yours because you actually break down houses and units. Others have dwelling prices, and that's different from state to state where about 30% of our accommodation in Melbourne is apartments, and if you lump them all together, it lowers the median price compared to other states." But again, I think we've got a comment that within these markets, they're fragmented, and the upper end in particular has been languishing in all our capital cities, while the lower-priced properties have been driven partly by affordability and I guess also the government grants incentivizing first-time buyers. Well, that's right, Michael. And as we see, when we differentiate between houses and units, which I can't believe you don't do logically, you can see that there are houses and units are actually moving differentially in some of the markets, particularly as you said, the big unit markets, which are Melbourne and Sydney.

[00:12:45]We can see that there's different results. Units in Melbourne are doing particularly well, whereas houses aren't doing that well. And and the reason behind that, or a significant factor behind the underperformance of Melbourne houses, is, as you said, higher-priced property, particularly in the inner eastern suburbs. And as I said, I think our absolute numbers are are very close for houses to every other modeler, but going forward, I think our advantage is we are first into the marketplace with all the latest prices. And as I I mentioned, they are similar, if not exactly the same as as the other modelers. So, another month, of course, what we're coming forward into now, Michael, is the month of May.

[00:13:29]And May is a non-holiday month, if I could call it that. So, we do now have a fully focused housing market over May.

[00:13:37]We're moving towards the end of the Well, this is the end of the autumn selling season, and which does run to a notionally through to the middle of June until we get to those mid-June school holidays and long weekends. So, this will be where we will really tell a story, you know, without the issues of a distracted market. But as you said, Michael, we've got in May also another Reserve Bank meeting for interest rates, and we will have the federal budget, which there's been a lot of discussion over perhaps what that will reveal, the federal budget. So, there are some issues over May that may work their way into what's happening in housing markets. But really, Michael, I would have thought that April has been another overall very positive month for the housing market, given all the headwinds that it's been facing. Sure. So, there is definitely lower consumer sentiment and confidence because of the continual conveyor belt of negative messages in the media, but the fundamentals for our economy, as we discussed in the latest weekly Property Insider chat, and also for our housing markets, are still firm.

[00:14:41]And so, yeah, we won't have as much growth as we had the last couple of years, but that isn't sustainable at those sort of levels of growth. Look forward to catching up with you for our weekly Property Insider chat next week.

[00:14:53]Thanks, Michael.