Crypto On The Verge Of Breakout

Added: 2026-05-05

[00:00:00]Good morning everybody. Welcome back.

[00:00:02]Let's have a look at the charts. Start with Bitcoin and it would appear and it's not quite confirmed yet. Not that anything is ever confirmed to be honest with you, but it looks like the consolidation that has been going on has has has has broken out here. So strange place for it to have done it, but perhaps it has done it all the same. I'm not really sure. I need to look around the news if there's anything that that might have caused markets to have risen sharply. It's not sharp, is it? Let's face it. We're up half a percent on the day. This candle is only 1%. It's a bit it's it's not about the size. It's it's the formation that counts. That's that's what they say.

[00:00:41]Then you know at this present moment in time you can think about this in a variety of different um uh trend lines and they're all broken out at the moment including uh potentially breaking out again from the 78. So I didn't think that this was the most likely scenario. I thought that we would probably come down a little more than we did. We lost the 20 moving average yesterday, 21, and and crept down a little. Move over to the um onto the daily here. So if we [clears throat] are getting picked up off anywhere it's it's it is this seven simple moving average.

[00:01:14]>> [snorts] >> Sevens do pick up, you know, they're on my chart for a reason. You know, I'll I'll put whatever moving averages I want on this chart and obviously there's a lot, but I don't need any more and the seven simple is skinny because it's you know, it's not very often uh a moving average which which does get tested. But it would appear that it has been today and getting picked up from it. Now anecdotally the seven simple is usually the usually the the last moving average uh to be supported on before it gives its last local high before a deeper consolidation. Uh and I'm not talking like crash, horrendous, like you know, the abyss of price action. I'm not saying anything like that. Just just you know, when you're getting picked up on moving averages, you know, you you you'd be looking for something like the 20 moving average or the 21 to begin with, then maybe the 10 exponential, then perhaps the seven, and then some kind of you know, pop and and and come back down again.

[00:02:17]>> [snorts] >> That looks like what's happening today.

[00:02:20]So if that's the case then we can start thinking about the uh the the higher moves perhaps which uh 5 and 1/2% to the 200 exponential and 8 and 1/2% to the 200 simple. All of those targets um have been on this chart for a while. You know, it's more likely that we stay within the range. Technically we're still there really. Um but if we do extend beyond the range one and two.

[00:02:46]Just like we have the range here which you know, we did see the you know, lower end of these areas. The range is never perfect. It's a guide. 66 to 78. We're at 78 now. When we were down here and I was saying you know, perhaps that we have moved to 78. People saying no, man.

[00:03:04]$35,000 is coming next, man.

[00:03:08]And you know, then we start moving up.

[00:03:11]So okay, well we're at the top of the range now. It's it's time to be a little bit guarded. No, man.

[00:03:18]It's going to $112,000, man.

[00:03:22]All right, okay. And if we do get rejected from here, I'll probably be looking for a a midway point maybe you know, you know, something like as as timid as like 75, maybe 71. No, man.

[00:03:37]Zero this time.

[00:03:38]>> [snorts] >> So basically I just allow for the range.

[00:03:41]But let's not forget there's still higher lows and higher highs. So actually despite being a sideways range, you know, range bounds, it's actually still an uptrend as well. So favor in favors the the move to the up generally.

[00:03:54]Whether it's got the capacity to do it now with this overheated read, bearish divergence on the money flow index.

[00:04:00]>> [snorts] >> Not sure.

[00:04:02]And it is Sunday. Sundays often sell off unless somebody says something amazing on the news. You know, uh which which might lead to a Sunday pump. Then then great. Otherwise, you know, normally what you what what I often do see and again you'll see it too.

[00:04:19]>> [laughter] >> So Sunday it starts a little bit optimistic in the morning and tails off towards the end of the day. And then by the time we do the stream in the evening, Sunday streams, there'll be one tonight. If you want to join, there's a link in the Patreon and look in the description for the Patreon. But when we're doing those, more or less at that moment that we do the stream at that that's that's uh that specific time of 8:00 we start to see that you know, the actual ch- price action is giving it back. So yeah, that's 12 hours away from now. So it could meander, it could go up or down. Somebody could say something, somebody else could fart in the wrong direction and the chart sort of moves accordingly to that. Don't forget there's a world out there and it's a bit of a tricky one at the moment. Um although you know, saying that you know, price has benefited you know, despite the the turbulence. So yeah, everybody's going up.

[00:05:17]Uh S&P new all-time highs. You know, oil. Yeah, it's high. It's high. It's not all-time highs, is it? It's not Russia-Ukraine highs. Is it it's not even the start of the war highs. It's um it's it's lower highs actually. So I know everybody [clears throat] thinks it's going up massively and it may do, but I don't think it will because if it was going to it should have done it by now.

[00:05:44]Honestly should have done it by now.

[00:05:46]>> [snorts] >> Anyway, what do I know?

[00:05:49]>> [sighs] >> The um the the view I hold would be that I'm skeptical that it has the capacity to move into the 84s at the moment only because it's a Sunday.

[00:06:00]Um but we'll we'll see.

[00:06:04]We'll see. Keep your eyes on the prize.

[00:06:06]Maybe we'll see you tonight on the stream. Um certain altcoins have been doing pretty well this weekend.

[00:06:12]And over overall I still believe that there's a good chance that the low is in as I've been saying. I've not changed my position on this one. I still believe that there's a good chance, not a guarantee, but a very good chance that the low is in on the weekly. If that's the case, given the money flow index down here and the RSI all the way down here, it actually on the weekly will have the capacity to move up into the 110, maybe new all-time highs even this year. I know what it sounds like. I know.

[00:06:42]I know.

[00:06:44]But >> [clears throat and cough] >> that's what it that's it it has that ability. It's got that reach. It's got that room.

[00:06:51]Um so anyway, that's that. I'll leave it there. Thanks for watching. Hope you have a nice day.

[00:06:57]Take it easy.