Samson Mow: "Bitcoin to $1.33M is OVERDUE" (New 2026 Target & MSTR Update)

追加: 2026-05-03

[00:00:00]You predicted that Bitcoin will hit $1 million by the end of 2025.

[00:00:05]>> Mhm. My new prediction is uh 1.33 million by end of 2026. Do you want to buy Bitcoin in 2030 for a million or do you want to buy it in 2026 for 68,000?

[00:00:16]If you look at stock flow as a metric, Bitcoin is five times or 5.5 times more scarce than silver. And I think Bitcoin has the potential to at least do a 5x because it's more scarce, but 10x is not out of the question. And that put us to a million. In a world where things are changing, relationships are changing, the carer party risk is changing, you need to have an asset without carno party risk, and that is Bitcoin. What if I told you that Bitcoin hitting $1 million isn't the bold prediction anymore? What if the real story is that it's already late? And what if the people who understand what's happening right now are quietly positioning themselves while the rest of the world is still asleep? Today, we're breaking down the explosive insights from Samson Mo, and why he believes Bitcoin isn't just going to 1 million, but could reach $1.3 million by 2026.

[00:01:15]Please take a little time to like this video, subscribe to the channel, and turn on post notifications for more videos like this. You can also check out our other videos on cryptocurrencies and the overall digital asset space and drop your comments and observations in the comments section below. Everything you do helps with the YouTube algorithm and immensely contributes to the channel's growth. Thanks and enjoy the video. You predicted that Bitcoin will hit $1 million by the end of 2025.

[00:01:46]>> Mhm. My new prediction is uh 1.33 million by end of 2026 >> because >> it's overdue.

[00:01:54]>> Mhm.

[00:01:54]>> So the thing is people get angry when I make prediction. If you look at every single price prediction model, stock to flow, power law, we have one at Jan 3, we call it omega 60. Um Sailor has a model called Bitcoin 24. They all converge in the area of 2030, 2031, maybe 2032 of Bitcoin hitting a million.

[00:02:16][laughter] >> So, every single model says that and the world is largely asleep at the wheel still. They don't understand what's happening. They don't understand the scarcity of Bitcoin. They don't understand what Bitcoin is. But let's say they did and let's say the models are right. Wouldn't you want to frontr run that like rationally? Do you want to buy Bitcoin in 2030 for a million or do you want to buy it in 2026 for $68,000?

[00:02:41]>> Every model says it's going to go to a million now. Why aren't people just buying Bitcoin at a discount now?

[00:02:51]Institutions know or I I get it. Retail investors, they only have, I don't know, 100K, a million dollars sitting at the bank. They kind of have to like be smart about it. But what about the the really wealthy people?

[00:03:04]They are.

[00:03:05]>> Look at Sailor.

[00:03:06]>> Mhm.

[00:03:07]>> Right. He's hitting the ATM. He's uh monetizing STRC, their their stretch product, and they're buying non-stop. This is an unprecedented time where you have a down market or bare market and [music] you have a massive accumulator that's going full speed ahead with buying Bitcoin. And he's not stopping, right?

[00:03:31]This has never happened in the past before. So, if you go back to my 2024 prediction of why I thought Bitcoin was going to hit a million, it was because of the ETFs.

[00:03:40]>> Every other bull run in Bitcoin history has always been disrupted or muted because exchanges were overwhelmed. I used to run an exchange, too. When the price goes parabolic and people are suddenly interested in Bitcoin, you cannot onboard and KYC people fast enough. But the ETFs removed that and it also removed the barrier to institutional adoption. So that was why I thought we would hit 1 million very quickly. Now that didn't happen, but it is very very positive and it is playing out to hit a million. So if you look at the Black Rockck ETF, IBIT, it is their most successful ETF product to date on a number of metrics. profitability, revenue generation, speed to grow to 50 some odd billion dollars, right? The rate and scale of institutional adoption piling in is just it should have sent Bitcoin flying upwards, but it hasn't. And I think people are always wondering why has it not gone parabolic? And I think it's a number of reasons. There's no one particular reason. One is people are short on cash.

[00:04:54]They're poorer now because of inflation and [music] everything. You know, it's not widely accepted that inflation is double digits, but I think real inflation is somewhere in double digits if not, you know, 20%.

[00:05:08][laughter] If it depends on what you're looking at, but the other reason is also uncertainty like all the conflict happening.

[00:05:15]And the last one is it's just um people are investing in other things like AI and whatnot. So they're they're taking capital that would have gone into Bitcoin and investing in Nvidia or other things like that. So, oh, sorry, there's a fourth one which is probably more on the Bitcoin/crypto side, which is the people that believe in the 4-year cycle.

[00:05:37]They think 2025 was the peak and now it's just down and of course they're they're selling because that's what they anticipate. So there's like all these little factors that are playing into price suppression, but definitely there's a lot of factors that are keeping Bitcoin down. But the thing you have to understand is there's not an unlimited supply of Bitcoin. If you look at stock flow as a metric, Bitcoin is five times or 5.5 times more scarce than silver. And I think Bitcoin has the potential to at least do a a 5x because it's more scarce. But 10x is not out of the question. And that would put us to, you know, a million. Yeah. Like Bitcoin has taken a beating for the last 6 7 months, right? It's been 6 7 months of down. But I think it's it'll reverse.

[00:06:28]And usually when it reverses, it'll just reverse violently to the upside because of the supply shock. But we've never had a market like this. Like people, specifically crypto traders, like to say, well, it's really dumb, but they say it's going to repeat the past and we're going to have 80% draw down. Not really. I think we've hit the bottom.

[00:06:46]and strategy buying people like oh it doesn't do anything to the market he's buying and it's not even moving it but what it is is setting a floor like he is buying aggressively at the bottoms and you also have um basically it's packaging the strategy to now so you can't really short strategy below 1 MNAV it's kind of dangerous to do that I think people realize it so there's kind of like a double bottom there's a Bitcoin bottom and then there's a strategy bottom simply because of size of strategy So, I think both things will factor into Bitcoin having a supply shock where there's just no more coins and you have more big treasury companies that will be buying soon like um Adam back I think you had him on uh BSTR is likely going to descit uh 68 67,000.

[00:07:47]He's getting close to $10,000 below Sailor's average price, which is now $75,000 because he's been averaging down. So, I think it's just too good to be true that Adam is going to descion of Bitcoin for 10k cheaper than Sailor cuz that has repercussions for the next 10 years, right? That means BSTR will be averaging, you know, their average cost will stay lower and they'll be averaging up more gradually. Whereas if Bitcoin recovers to um ADK, the sailor's averaging up again, not down.

[00:08:24]>> Now, I'm wondering if it's safe to preach people or tell people it is always a good idea to buy Bitcoin at any price.

[00:08:32]>> It is always a good thing to buy Bitcoin at any price.

[00:08:35]>> Explain to me why.

[00:08:37]Well, if you just ignore all the financial engineering with strategy and everything like that, you know, >> you can't really time the market and say Bitcoin is going to go up or down. You don't know, >> right?

[00:08:50]>> So, you always want to be deploying into the market because you know for a fact that in 10 years, Bitcoin will be much higher than it is now because of it is this scarce asset and it is replacing gold. So you you just have to be in the market. Like there's a saying, time in the market is more important than timing the market, you know, and even if you don't believe that Bitcoin is good, then you should just put your money in STRC and let Sailor buy the Bitcoin and he'll keep the 20 to 50% upside and he'll give you 11%.

[00:09:27]>> For people that are not familiar with that product, can you briefly explain what it is? Yeah. So, STRC is u it's basically a fixed income product. Um it it's basically sailor stripping out the volatility of Bitcoin. Basically, he'll pay you 11%. You give him money, he'll take that and buy Bitcoin and when Bitcoin goes up 30%, he gets the 20% gain on it. So, it's like a beautiful kind of arbitrage between those that are riskaverse or don't understand Bitcoin and those that understand Bitcoin because it is a brilliant instrument. It it's stripping out the volatility and giving people a stable income and they don't need to buy Bitcoin. And those that believe and understand Bitcoin will buy Bitcoin. And in many ways, this is similar, possibly inspired by the Bitcoin bond that I designed for El Salvador, which was not on a monthly scale, but the idea was you buy the bond, you get a yield, which is covered by investing half of the bond capital into mining, but then after a 5-year period, you recoup the principal. So, you if you invest u $100,000 in it, you know that in 10 years, it's 10-year bond. You get back your 100,000. But after the 5year mark, you get an increased Bitcoin yield u on top of the base coupon. So in year 7, 8, 9, maybe your yield is u 30, 40, 50%. Or 90%.

[00:10:52]Which is pretty cool.

[00:10:53]>> Now imagine this at a global level. If one country starts accumulating Bitcoin, others can't afford to ignore it. This creates a game theory domino effect.

[00:11:03]We're already seeing early signs.

[00:11:05]Central banks exploring Bitcoin, countries experimenting with reserves, institutions racing to accumulate, and once it accelerates, it could happen fast. Here's the boldest idea from Mo.

[00:11:16]Bitcoin could absorb value from gold, real estate, financial assets. Why?

[00:11:21]Because it's more portable, more divisible, more secure, more scarce. In his view, Bitcoin isn't just competing with assets. It's competing with the entire monetary system. People are interested in the game theory because there is this FOMO element in it. So once you know the argument was once US started buying well they're not buying yet but [music] once US started this plan other countries will be like you know what we can't miss out everyone's going to start doing it but are they really doing it?

[00:11:53]>> No one's really doing it yet but all the all the dominoes are sort of lining up.

[00:11:59]So you even have central banks now that are buying like the the Czech central bank I think has bought um another uh Eastern European central bank has bought I can't remember the name right now but they are starting to accumulate Bitcoin at a nation level if not in a strategic reserve or something >> but I guess the main question for these countries are why do we need to hold Bitcoin? That's a good question and I think people will figure out again the problem is a lot of people misunderstand how money works.

[00:12:35]>> So Bitcoin is viewed as a risk asset or a tech stock. That's why we track. So when when all the uh software companies were crashing because AI is going to replace every software company, you know, Bitcoin came down with it. very weird correlation, but people think Bitcoin is just a piece of software, but Bitcoin is actually a transformation of money. It's closer to gold, but it's better than gold because you can teleport it and memorize it. So, it changes the entire paradigm. The way the world works right now is counterparty risk is everywhere. So, for people they don't know, counterparty risk means you have to rely on another party to transfer something. In terms of gold, you can have gold as a bearer asset with no counterparty risk because you can have a physical gold coin, but that is not scalable. At a nation state level, you have, you know, Taiwan has 424 tons of gold. You can't just take that with you easily. And a lot of countries store gold elsewhere like um Venezuela kept their gold with the Bank of England. And then famously the Bank of England said you can't have it back when they said we want our gold back. Right? And even I think many European countries, Germany included, store gold with the US. So there's counterparty risk with gold, which is before Bitcoin the hardest asset we had. And then you have the traditional financial system. And if you look at uh what happened to Russia, they were effectively debanked as a country and kicked off of Swift. And assets were frozen and uh treasuries were frozen too. they owned a bunch of US treasuries and now as a country you have to ask yourself you know isn't is that an acceptable risk Taiwan also has treasuries too and if you remember I think it was last year many countries suddenly were no longer friends with the US even Canada where I'm from we were suddenly you know persona nongrada and you know we're talking about uh annexing Canada is the 51st state. There was talk about grabbing Greenland and other things too.

[00:14:45]So I think people have grown up in a world that has been largely stable and largely very amicable and largely very friendly. Actually I think Taiwan was on the receiving end of that too. Uh I think Trump said you know you got to pay for the protection.

[00:15:01]>> Yeah. So things can change very quickly in the world and we've seen that with Venezuela and now Iran things happen now and in a world where things are changing relationships are changing the carer party risk is changing you need to have an asset without carer party risk and that is Bitcoin and eventually people will come to that same conclusion but it's difficult because Bitcoin is so revolutionary that people can't really wrap their heads around it because if they did they would be buying Bitcoin. and they be listening to podcasts and hang on to Michael Sailor's every single word, but they're not. So, this is the current state of the world we're in. People don't understand it yet, but they will because money is a necessity in a conflict.

[00:15:46]Let's say you want to defend your borders from an aggressor. You want to buy oil.

[00:15:54]If you, let's say you wanted to buy oil from Russia, do they want NTD?

[00:16:01]Not anymore.

[00:16:02]>> Probably not.

[00:16:03]>> Are you going to give them US dollars?

[00:16:06]>> How are you going to give them US dollars? And where are they going to keep the US dollars? Cuz US dollars, they don't really, you know, they don't really really exist at scale outside of the US financial system, right? Maybe a stable coin, but those are centralized and can be frozen, too.

[00:16:22]>> So, let's say in a conflict, you have no more allies that want NTD or USD. You need a neutral currency that you can pay and get oil or drones or aircraft or anti-aircraft missiles, right? You need to have a money that you can spend freely and anywhere in the world to anybody.

[00:16:45]>> Is there a point where this institutional adoption is bad for Bitcoin?

[00:16:51]>> Well, you could say that. And there is criticism that there's concentration risk, right? like strategy has what >> 760 some odd thousand now >> and then black rockck has 750 something thousand bitcoin now so there are people that say say that's like not great it's too concentrated but black rockck is buying on behalf of their clients right just like any other ETF and Sailor he has conviction right >> what is bad about this >> well the idea is that you know what if uh what if Sailor decides sell one day and dumps it on the market, right? Or >> it's just he has outsiz influence on the market because he has so much Bitcoin, right? And it's one entity, >> but there's really no way around it, right? Like if Bitcoin is valuable, everyone will want Bitcoin. And that's what we're seeing. Countries will want Bitcoin. Companies will want Bitcoin.

[00:17:46]You know, institutions will want Bitcoin. It's just a natural extension, just like who wants gold. There's really nothing you can do except for complain about it because it's capitalism. If you want to get it, go and get it. Nothing is stopping you from buying more Bitcoin than Sailor. I think in a world where Bitcoin is replacing the entire monetary system, it's going to absorb gold. It's going to demonetize all those precious metals. It's going to absorb real estate. It's going to absorb a lot of things. There is no limit how big Bitcoin can get. So it's everything divided by 21 million, right? So yes, strategy has a big chunk of it, but overall, Bitcoin is going to grow from, you know, 1 point something trillion to 100 [music] trillion. And there's enough Bitcoin for everyone. Even though everyone may not have one Bitcoin, but you know, one Bitcoin can be divided up into 100 million Satoshi. So everyone will have a good number of Satoshi's.

[00:18:45]But that's the nature of wealth. it will concentrate somehow. But the good thing about Bitcoin is anybody can hold Bitcoin. And Sailor has even said this too. He said u not everyone can have Manhattan real estate, right? But anyone, even some guy in Africa or Argentina can buy Bitcoin. There's nothing stopping them other than their own biases or ignorance, but they can buy Bitcoin just like Sailor can buy Bitcoin. Anything else you would like to say to let's say a young viewer just starting off?

[00:19:18]>> Understand what it means to think from first principles. Not just from wealth creation and money, but for everything in life. Because that is the only way that you can really achieve success. If you do what everyone else does, you will be average. If you do what the media tells you to do or you invest based off of some guy recommending investments, you're going to end up, you know, average. You have to think what is meaningful, what are the things happening in the world today and extrapolate from that for yourself. And there's no what other way around it.

[00:19:58]It's hard work. You have to put in the work and research, right? Like one thing I think people should be worrying about and maybe they are is what happens to your work in the future with AI and I think it the answer is Bitcoin right if you have an asset you can leverage the asset you can borrow against it right if there's no more work if work becomes a commodity because uh a computer can do it then what value do you bring so you need to accumulate an asset now right if you go back to the boomer age, what is the asset? You have the productive asset of real estate. I can buy a house, not the one I'm living in, and I can rent out that house, right? And I get some income. Well, with Bitcoin, you can also [music] use it, too, right? You can borrow against it.

[00:20:47]You can sell options. You can do all sorts of things with it. But you have to think if the world is moving away from work being valuable, then there's no more valuable skill than having an asset. It's not a skill, but it's like a important thing now. Not that you know how to do something, but you have an asset.

[00:21:08]>> Mo ends with a powerful message. Think for yourself. Don't follow the crowd.

[00:21:13]Don't rely on headlines. Instead, ask, "What is money? What makes something valuable? Where is the world heading?"

[00:21:20]Because the people who understand these shifts early position themselves before everyone else. So here's the bottom line. Bitcoin's path to $1 million and beyond isn't just speculation. It's a convergence of scarcity, institutional demand, global instability, and a fundamental shift in how we understand money. The market hasn't fully priced it in yet. But when it does, it may not give you time to react. If you want more deep, no hype breakdowns of Bitcoin macro trends, and where the world is heading next, make sure to subscribe and turn on notifications.