The Reality About Crypto Nobody Wants To Admit

Añadido: 2026-05-24

[00:00:02]I've been doing these videos covering crypto for like eight and a half years and I've never seen I've never seen things so bad. I've never seen crypto such a mess. I was going to do like a regular Saturday video. I haven't been doing live streams a lot, but there's so much I just I just want to sit here and talk a little bit because I honestly don't even know usually have a framework for how I present everything. I actually don't even know how how to present everything to you. Um there's so much going on right now. Crypto looks like something I've never seen. So, we're going to go through a bunch of things.

[00:00:39]I'm going to look at we're going to do charts. I want to look at Bitcoin. I want to look at Ethereum. I want to look at some altcoins. I do want to talk about what is going on in terms of price action. But just as context to the video, Ethereum, the number two chain that I mean until so recently, just like that, it it was the sure thing. Ethereum losing their top builders, their top content creators. Everybody is turning their back on Ethereum right now. That is happening in real time. Cardono governance drama is very ugly. Sui crashing, erasing all recent gains. I want to look at that chart. Trump Truth Socialing their Bitcoin ETF. Clarity Act odds of passing is falling now. SEC delayed their tokenized stocks plan.

[00:01:28]Massive ETF outflows. Fear is back like never before. And I'm telling you and I and I really do say this with genuine belief.

[00:01:41]This is not like crypto failing. It is not crypto being game over at all in my opinion. Um, but I do want to speak to each and each and every one of these things because in my opinion is a very big deal. So, hit the subscribe if you're out there. I appreciate you. Hit that like button if you're out there. I know these live streams right now on a Saturday are kind of probably the worst time to do a live stream, but um would love to uh just go over everything with you. It's just crazy, man. I I I I don't know how I think I don't know if most of my subscribers are just like people that don't like my content, but I have I'm gonna have to start banning people.

[00:02:22]It's frustrating because it makes it very difficult to do live stream. I also only have one screen. We're in a rental right now as we wait for our our new build and it's going to be it's going to be a while. So, doing these live streams is tough. Um, all right. So, I want to start the video with this. This is a post I saw. I think this is Mert over here on X. I think I think Mert posts a lot of things that I don't agree with at all. However, I agree with this post and I think I should probably just read this and just end the live stream. Honestly, crypto is dominated by speculators and younger traders who have virtually no time horizon or attention span. As crypto takes over, same thing is happening to all markets. In such a world, there's a great edge in simply having a boomer time horizon. All my big wins have been buying distress assets, working to improve them, and thinking in terms of years versus weeks. This is where we are right now in in terms of thinking in years and not weeks. This is Bitcoin zoomed out on a weekly chart. You can go to Ethereum zoomed out on a weekly chart. Let's start with Ethereum. I think Ethereum is is going to be okay in terms of ETH and ETH price action. It's not going to be a top performer. I mean, we knew that anyway, but what's going on with Ethereum is is crazy to see right now. This is a post from Simon on X.

[00:03:47]Watching nine senior researchers and key operators leave the Ethereum Foundation in 2026 alone is something I can't just ignore. And he's right. I mean, you can't you can't ignore that. Um, also Banklist, one of their one of their founders selling all his ETH. You can't ignore these things at all. Um, but at the same time, it's crazy to me to see how in this bare market that we are in right now, sweeping across the crypto landscape so quickly. Is this happening?

[00:04:21]content creators ditching Ethereum while all the sudden while all of the sudden after all these years, all these cycles, Zcash and Hype, they are they they took the spotlight.

[00:04:40]And is it of no surprise that that's happening? If I could just go to like a Zcash chart right now, is is is that happening for a fundamental reason or is it just because price is at all-time high? Is it just because price and narrative and people and retail are very simply just chasing price? This is this is I think all that is happening right now. And I know Ethereum, the researchers leaving and what's going on with Ethereum? Fundamentally, there's probably there's not good things happening, but is it because of fundamentals or is it because this is what an Ethereum chart looks like? It's price. And the same the same thing goes for this. I did this video yesterday in regards to Cardano. What's going on with Cardano? Um the drama going on with, you know, funding IO and governance and all of that. There's always drama with Cardano, but again, if if price was doing something positive, the drama wouldn't be there. The drama wouldn't be there for Ethereum. The drama won't be there for Cardano. And certainly, I don't think Zcash and Hyperliquid would be like the two top plays right now because that's essentially what's happening. At least in terms of my timeline, at least in terms of what I'm seeing on X. Um, but the story continues, right? It's not just Ethereum. It's not just Cardano. This was SUI. This was on a daily chart. SU is like I mean I am so bullish on SU.

[00:06:06]I'm so bullish on crypto space right now while while it just really does look a mess. It looks like it's falling apart.

[00:06:13]It really just does.

[00:06:16]But this this chart, look at this. It was just days ago pretty much where was pumping almost 50% and all of those gains wiped out yet again. This is the story everybody.

[00:06:32]This is the constant story of crypto right now and it's not fun. Like it's why I it's why I put it like crypto is broken but it's not over. It's such a difference. Like just saying crypto is broken. It's a mess. It's dramatic. It's not the same as saying that crypto is over. And that is why I highlight this post over here from Mert which is this time horizon aspect because crypto is dominated by speculators and younger traders who have virtually no time horizon or attention span. And I would say at this point just 95% of people in crypto they do not take serious time to work up and draw up a macro thesis. They just don't. I I just see that. It's so evident. And that's why right now Zcash hype, they're absolutely just taking over everything.

[00:07:32]They're taking over the narrative because of look at the price action. And I'm not discounting why there's price action. Like fundamentally, maybe maybe there's a reason everybody, you know, I well not maybe I know there's a reason.

[00:07:46]I know why I know there's a reason why hype is bullish. I get that. But to just all of a sudden to see things like Ethereum and all these other projects, I've even seen Salana, which was really for recent years, like it was the go-to.

[00:08:00]It was like the one it's going to take over Ethereum. Even Salana right now is losing its its its luster.

[00:08:08]Salana being painted and the narrative being with Salana, it's just the memecoin chain, which isn't something I disagree with, but I just think it's crazy how the narratives are changing so quickly. And my point in saying all this is is is to say this is exactly this is worse than any any bare cycle I've been through. This is worse than any sentiment I've been through. But this is exactly what happens every cycle. It's exactly what happens every single cycle.

[00:08:38]everybody and actually it's interesting to see you know this whole this whole thing with with with Ethereum happening this happens with Bitcoin especially in the earlier days of Bitcoin cycles crypto if you remember in the bare markets Bitcoin the the headlines right crypto is dead Bitcoin is going to zero that is that is starting to stop when it comes to Bitcoin but now it's very much taking over when it comes to Ethereum everybody if you're in a live stream on a Saturday afternoon. I appreciate you.

[00:09:10]Hit that like button for me. We got like 40 likes, 500 some people in here.

[00:09:14]Probably honestly probably on YouTube. I don't even know. There's probably like a hundred people in here. But I appreciate you hanging out on a Saturday. Um the cycle is very difficult. I'm going to I'm going to show probably charts that are not wellreceived right now, but I'm going to do it anyway. Um and that is the the macro thesis the macro bull thesis that is very much in play but as we go through these things just keep these things in mind but just crazy to see I'm so bullish on SUI I've allocated to SUI um I think it's going to be a top performer and it's just got it just got demolished right back down and it's just frustrating honestly to to see this continued these continued bare suppression moves all across crypto.

[00:10:03]Meanwhile, President Trump's Truth Social withdraws Bitcoin ETF app. The company behind Truth Social has withdrawn its application to launch Bitcoin ETF. And you can read this article, but there's it seems like it's the competitive landscape that has driven this. Wall Street Investment Bank Morgan Stanley launched new Bitcoin Bitcoin ETF bringing the number to more than a dozen. And a lot of the fees are very competitive with these ETFs. And I really do think that's probably a big part of it in terms of just being able to be competitive. They were probably just like, let's just withdraw this. Um, all the while, Clarity Act odds plummet from 75% to 50%. So that's happening right now. This is just like one negative headline after another. SEC, we just we were just all bullish, you know, a week ago about the tokenized stocks and then all of a sudden yesterday SEC delays plan allowing for crypto versions of US stocks. The SEC's staff was preparing to release its so-called innovation exemption for tokenized stocks as soon as this week. But the timing has since been pushed back as the SEC weighs input from stock exchange officials and other market petition participants who've held discussion with agency staff in the past few days to learn details of the plan.

[00:11:25]Just crazy the because many of these headlines were a week ago positive headlines, right? And now they're just completely negative headlines. Um I'm I have my phone up so I can read some of these just comments coming in.

[00:11:41]Um so negative headline negative headline negative headline 1.26 billion Bitcoin ETF ETF outflows outflows have been negative headlines. This was interesting though spark contrarian buy signal coming out of sentiment I guess but article on trading view and all the while we are still living in a world of fear. I mean fear now fear yesterday fear last week fear last month. It's been fear all year long basically for the crypto space. So that's a summation of everything that's happening and it's it's absolutely not been fun. I I I say that I'm with you. It's not enjoyable. Um but let's talk about this a little bit. I want to do I want to do a little bit of an analysis on Bitcoin because while all this is happening, not just Bitcoin everybody, Ethereum as well, still just consolidating, but I do want to do some analysis on Bitcoin because there's some things happening that were interesting. Um, and that is we've remained above the 20week moving average. Completely not convinced that that's, you know, going to hold. If you remember when we were doing analysis, I think back here on the 11th or 12th, we were talking about this 200 day moving average. the resistance is so sound and normal. Um, and it doesn't for me paint a bare market picture. I've done I did a video on this the other day. I I don't want to just harp on this, but the the correlation is man, when this move happens, we fall into a bare market. My whole thinking is we are in a way different macro environment. Completely different part of the business cycle, completely different part of what the Fed is doing. QT, Kevin Walsh coming into play right now. AI productivity boom, everything's different. So my whole thought, especially when it comes to this indicator, is yeah, resistance for sure anticipate it. But I'm not so quick to just say we're going into a bare market for the rest of the year or we're going to continue a bare market for the rest of the year, I should say. But what I am watching is how does Bitcoin interact with all these things that are happening. uh namely right now especially because we have one day eight hours left on Bitcoin the 20week moving average. How's that hold? Can can Bitcoin close above that area? That's a very big deal. Uh mainly because if you look at this kind of correlated area of that 200 day moving average on the weekly when Bitcoin started falling into the bear, you see Bitcoin didn't do a very good job of holding above that 20week moving average. Right?

[00:14:15]The other thing is Bitcoin was the 20week moving average was falling if you look over here below the 50 like that was that was just happening. That move has happened January 2026. Right now what we really want to start seeing is the 20week moving average start leveling out for the reversal and that begins with support above the 20week moving average. and it could start happening now, but I'm, you know, I want to start really watching these weekly candles because this could very well in the next 24 hours just close below the 20week moving average. It doesn't mean that we won't get the 20week moving average reversal. Um, it just means support on the shorter term failed and we use the daily chart on Bitcoin kind of as a guide, I think, for maybe shorter term price action. So when it comes to that 20week moving average resistance confluent with that upper upper trend line in yellow normal everything's normal. Um our next area of support which immediately fail was the 20day and then the 50-day was the next area of support that has failed. So as we've been anticipating we have the main areas to watch for which I'm just very curious of to see what Bitcoin does, how it interacts and that is all the way down here. There's really three areas here confluent coming together. So what it is is the swing low back here in March to swing high. This kind of rectangle that you see here is a 618 to 786 Fibonacci Fibonacci pullback area. One of my favorite indicators that is there. Um and that price point is like 72,000 to like 68,000 or so. And then we have this blue trend line which I think is very a very important trend line. It goes to all-time high in October and it's been kind of resistance. Bitcoin has flipped it. So if Bitcoin makes its way back to that area right alongside that Fibonacci as well as that third point of confluence which is the yellow trend line at the bottom. That is a crazy interesting area for Bitcoin. And you can see $69 $70,000. That's what that is. So it's kind of coming to this point of anywhere between there and really where Bitcoin is right now, especially when we're keeping in mind the 20week moving average at like $75,000.

[00:16:41]What's Bitcoin doing in this range?

[00:16:43]How's Bitcoin holding up? Right? And that's what I'll be watching in terms of Bitcoin. You go to something like Ethereum, it's it's a suppressed market. It's a suppressed cycle. We are living in a cycle that we've never lived in before. If we think about things like the PMI, the business cycle, this is something so many people disagree with me about the suppression that we have in crypto right now, the lack of the bull market that never happened is because of this chart, that green line. It is the business cycle.

[00:17:18]And so this is where things become a little unpopular in terms of my analysis, you know, and I understand. I get it. It's fine. We'll see how it plays out because only time will tell if this does play out. But I'm under the the strong impression based on analysis and looking at cycles of crypto as it correlates with the business cycle as it correlates with Russell 2000 which is just entering its price discovery that if the PMI increases and we do see uh capital start making its way down um the risk curve crypto as always every cycle will be last and that includes foods after the Russell 2000 which just finally broke out, right? It it was also suppressed since 2021 like crypto.

[00:18:09]This isn't crypto failing in my opinion.

[00:18:13]And so with that being said, what are some things?

[00:18:17]What are some things?

[00:18:20]Here's a very unpopular thing. We're going to get interest rates down quickly. That's coming from Trump.

[00:18:26]I saw this from Fred over here on X. Um, I think another account I don't agree with a lot of what he says. Very soon we will enter into what is called the midterms big print. That's a technical term. I don't make up the rules.

[00:18:41]And we also have this.

[00:18:50]The Fed is about to cut while the economy booms. New Fed Chair Kevin Walsh. AI is structurally disinflationary. By the way, Kevin Bessant, I think like last week or so, also saying he's anticipating disinflation when the war ends.

[00:19:07]It's so difficult for me to talk about these things as part of my analysis because it's it's it's optimistic and crypto right now is not optimistic. It's way more comfortable to be pessimistic probably to just expect the worst from from here on out and just kind of give it in, give up, you know, give in. It's so easy for people to do that. Um, and I understand that.

[00:19:38]But when I'm when I'm looking at the non-emotional the unemotional aspect of things and I'm really just trying to study markets, I'm trying to study what's like what's the setup right now.

[00:19:51]I tend to just kind of and I'm also just generally optimistic person anyway. Even if none of this plays out and we, you know, we fall to zero, I'm sure I'll be doing optimistic videos just because, you know, it's life. 1995, Greenspan saw the productivity boom.

[00:20:10]That's what exactly what I've been talking about. That's why I was happy to see this post because all I've been talking about is the the similarities of the setup right now. This is S&P 500.

[00:20:20]Many people think it's topping out. I don't. The '9s productivity boom that happened was pretty incredible and crypto wasn't part of that. And if this is setting up right now, as Kevin W even thinks it is, I'm not saying he's saying S&P 500 is going to keep going up, but he's talking about this productivity boom driven by AI. If this continues right now and we have this cycle of expansion and and it's a cycle of expansion where we see the Russell 2000 making its way finally after years of suppression because this is the S&P 500 everybody right like what is going on there while if you look at the Russell look at this sideways since 2021 looks like an Ethereum chart until recently it. So when we sit here and we look at an Ethereum chart looks very similar to this, right? And we say, "Dude, Ethereum's done. The nine researchers left. ETH is done. The the number one influencer in Ethereum sold his ETH.

[00:21:28]It's done because it's sideways because price is down. It's not going to break out." It's it's almost like you could have looked at Russell 2000 not long ago and been like, "Dude, it's over for Russell 2000. It's the same price as 2021. What a failure." Uh but it's not.

[00:21:41]This is just literally how the cycles work. This is how the cycles have worked as as it pertains to capital working its way down the risk curve. And cryptos always last. And if you wonder why cryptos last now, it's because this is what happens every cycle. It's just look at how long and extended this is. This is a Russell 2000. Look at it. Last cycle Russell 2000. That's not as bad, right? Even back here, this wasn't even as bad. That's not as bad. priced sideways for years, but not as bad as what this is finally just broke out.

[00:22:13]That is exactly the story that is playing out on Ethereum right now and on altcoins. But even worse, the lower cap you get, the worse it is. That's why the really low caps, like one of my favorite dog on Bitcoin, so unpopular for me to have this this fundamental macro thesis.

[00:22:32]The thing is going to explode if we enter a bull market in my opinion. that but that's why the lower market caps no matter what the opportunity looks like it's just so high risk high reward because the volatility to the downside in environments like this having to survive macroeconomic tightening from the Fed and suppression of a business cycle lower cap the lower cap you get the worse it gets right Ethereum is I mean Ethereum isn't massive if you really think of the grand scope of of equities and everything. And that's why I mean it's down for alltime highs last cycle and it's sideways. But then you start going down market cap of cryptos and it's like the same exact thing but just gets worse every crypto, right? That's why you start getting into the environment of you know things like SU or Cardano. They're down even more from from highs and that's just is what it is because the cap the market cap is getting lower. Um, so that was so that was Bitcoin. We're going to track Bitcoin. I just very curious to see what happens here in the setup of structure.

[00:23:42]Uh, if we go over to Ethereum kind of spoke to Ethereum a little bit as it relates to the macro, but on the shorter term, this is what it looks like. I think it's an interesting structured setup. No matter how you spin it, there's probably so many different patterns at this point that people are tracking.

[00:23:58]But going through all of these types of um negative environments, I just I don't think at all it's game over for crypto.

[00:24:07]And you know, I wanted to kind of talk about some of these things.

[00:24:13]So, appreciate all of you in the chats. I'm I'm I have my my phone open. We're in a rental, so it's like so hard on one screen to do these things. Usually, I have this other screen. I can kind of see what's going on. Um, but if you I'm just curious what are what are you all watching um, in terms of cryptos because I know much of the industry right now all hype about Zcash, right? Much of the industry all hype about hype all-time highs. These are the two taking over, right? Taking over the space right now.

[00:24:49]Um, while everything else just completely suppressed. I did want to take a look at I know I glanced at it, but I do want to take a look at SUI. um from put aside all the the crypto negativity. Crypto's over, you know, where we are in the bare market. Put everything aside. Um number one, I I'm so tired of the pumps and then all pumps erased. I'm so tired of that on all these charts. But if you're in crypto, if you're getting in crypto, it's just you you you just have to live with it. it just is what it is.

[00:25:26]Like this is what has always happened.

[00:25:28]Um and in these periods of multi-year suppression of the business cycle and suppression of the of crypto in general, it just gets harder every time. However, with that being said, I mean on this chart even right now, I'm actually kind of curious to see how the continued like coiling of these moving average sets up.

[00:25:47]We had the rejection at the 200 day moving average and we're we're ultimately looking for a leveling off of the 200 day to start an uptrend, right?

[00:25:57]So, it it kind of does even though we can sit here and call it manipulation, man. 50% wiped out. It does make sense to have a 200 day moving average resistance. It's exactly what happened on Bitcoin's daily chart. 200 day moving average resistance more volatile to the downside on SU. But what happens uh at these moving averages, right? we start getting some type of support even I don't know if this is going to hold uh going into this new week but we start seeing sui get support at these moving averages the 20 and 50 making another test of the 200 and breaking the 200 then we're starting to talk about a macro reversal for sui everybody wants to sit out there and be all bearish right now fine have fun like wait till an October low have fun with that maybe it happens and maybe I'm here sitting you know bullish the whole way down and optimistic the whole way I'm I'm balancing my risk in that environment if it happens right over the next 6 months or however long that is.

[00:26:54]However, at the same time, what if that doesn't happen? And what if what if the the bull thesis does play out way sooner than waiting until the end of the year?

[00:27:06]I think it's a very good idea to be positioned for that as well. And again, I come back to this. I don't know if you're new to the live stream right now, but I just think this is a great post.

[00:27:15]Crypto is dominated by speculators and younger traders. Virtually no time horizon or attention span. As crypto takes over, same thing happening is happening to all markets. In such a world, there's a great edge in simply having a boomer time horizon. All my big wins have been buying distressed assets, working to improve them, and thinking in terms of years versus weeks. This is exactly where my mindset comes from.

[00:27:38]everybody.

[00:27:42]Man, I could I could just do bare content and I I get such better engagement. I would get probably way better comments, but I'm not that's not what I'm here for. I'm just not I'm not here I'm not here to do that.

[00:28:00]So, I think so many so many people that were, you know, so bullish not even that long ago have jumped on the bear wag the bear bandwagon and that's fine. They can do that.

[00:28:14]But if if I'm not sitting here and shorting crypto, right? And especially if back in like September or October, which by the way, none of your favorite bears, I don't think, were calling a bare market then, maybe calling for a new all-time high soon.

[00:28:33]I don't think they were sitting there shorting, right? I don't think on the way down they're they're they're sitting here shorting. My point is, if I'm not if I'm not shorting crypto right now, if I'm not a trader in that regard, why would I why would I sit here and do that when I'm a macro crypto investor?

[00:28:52]Um, somebody in the comments said, "Your thumbnail, my thumbnail is bearish."

[00:29:03]But you know what?

[00:29:06]Crypto 7.

[00:29:08]My thumbnail is, I would say, an illustration of probably how most of the people in the chat feel right now. Even how I feel, as bullish as I am, it's a mess, dude. Crypto's a mess. I I I go on X and it's just like it's ridiculous the what I see, whether it's charts or whether it's just like headlines and news. I mean, look at all these things that we just went through. Ethereum losing and top builders, Cardano governance drama, SWU is crashing, Trump s Trump Truth Socialing BTC ETF. I don't think there's any better visualization of all of these headlines than my thumbnail. So, doesn't make me doesn't make me personally bearish. I'm just saying crypto's a mess. I don't think you can argue with that. So, maybe that's a little bit of a maybe that's a little bit of a insight.

[00:30:08]be fine, Dan. 2018 was worse. Um, it's interesting because like it feels like 2018 in terms of how bad it is, but at the same time, it feels worse. And probably because if you go to something like an Ethereum chart or I mean really the best chart is probably just this. This excludes Bitcoin and Ethereum. You can go to exclude Bitcoin. It's just this this is why it feels worse. It's just how long this has been of sideways. The market cap of all coins is the same as it was in 2021 of April. So over five years ago. And that's incredible, right? That's why it feels worse. But I think it I absolutely think it's it's going to be okay as well. It's interesting too if you if you go to 2018 it is like this I remember doing like videos back here right going into 2019 it's interesting to actually look at the charts this capitulation almost looks very similar to the capitulation we had back here in February um I'm not definitely not saying it's the same I'm just saying it looks very similar you know we're going down much further when so Many influencers are saying the bottom is in.

[00:31:31]I mean, man, I feel like I'm I'm first off, I never say the bottom is in. I don't say that. Um I think I I I think after 1010 in October, the capitulation, I think I might have made the mistake of being that's the bottom, dude, because I was crazy. It wasn't the bottom. I was wrong. But I don't I I I'm not sitting here saying it's the bottom. If you watch my videos, you know, all year long, I've been anticipating the postquantitative tightening dip. That is what has been happening all year long.

[00:31:59]But even as I do my analysis right now, I'm not at all um sitting here saying the bottom is in. Like that's why I'm doing my analysis on Bitcoin. I'm looking for some strong indicators of a bottom of support of a macro reversal.

[00:32:16]Put me aside. I don't see a lot of content creators.

[00:32:21]You know, I'm not sitting around watching YouTube videos all day, but maybe there are some. But are there a lot of content creators saying that the bottom was in? Are there really?

[00:32:31]I don't know.

[00:32:35]And then you have the flip side. Most influencers are calling for 40k.

[00:32:40]Do you see? Nobody knows, man. It's crazy.

[00:32:45]So, we have one person in the comment saying, "Most influencers are saying the bottom is in." And then a minute later, another person saying, "Most influencers are calling for $40,000."

[00:32:59]It's incredible.

[00:33:03]Nobody knows. Nobody knows at all. Um, I'm just seeing what y'all Hey Dan, what are your thoughts on Midnight?

[00:33:25]Look at this. I mean, this is the chart on midnight. I guess I can remove this fractal now.

[00:33:31]What a just what a messy chart. And it is these wicks are actually real, too.

[00:33:37]Like I think I like you'll see midnight just pumping and then just boom, completely smacked right back down.

[00:33:43]Midnight's this thing where it's just like, you know, it's I think it's going to do phenomenal in a in a bull market. Um, this is one of my higher risk plays, Midnight. Um, it's definitely for me in like and I guess I I should speak to this a little bit in terms within context to Cardano.

[00:34:04]For me, when I think of Knight, I think of Cardano. I I almost bunch them together, but in the sense of Knight will outperform Cardano in a bull market. I just think it will in my opinion. Um, with that being said, when I think of the ADA that I hold, I almost simultaneously think of the night hold.

[00:34:25]When I think of the night hold, I think of the ADA hold because it's just they're both coming out of IO and it's just in that ecosystem, right?

[00:34:34]Um, I think this is like a hedge against any diminished returns Cardano might return. Um, but even with that, and speaking very transparently with you, I'm I've been very tired of the drama with Cardano. I I've become so jaded over years of seeing it um the leadership and that's why many of you know I've I mean I've heavily reallocated my portfolio just because it's become so tiring as well as just other opportunities have have come up thinking of things like SUI um you know and there's others out there too I mean there's so many opportunities across the board that's not me saying Cardano is not going to do well in a bull market. I think it will and I want it to succeed.

[00:35:21]I just did this long video yesterday because I want to see ADA do well, but um I think Knight will outperform I think Knight will do very well in a bull market. I think it's going to outperform many coins. So, it's a very good hedge in terms of that, but again, also a little bit just a high high risk high return type of type of play. So, um, what's crazy is I don't know if I have this chart, but you know, Ando was pumping. Ando has insane narrative right now as well. Um, actually didn't didn't wipe out gains as much as, but is another interesting one. I don't hold it. And it's just kind of like, you know, there's there's just coins that I just I know are going to do. I don't know. I don't know anything but I think are going to do very well and I don't hold them just because I've I've just like kind of spread my portfolio just kind of too thin. Not too thin but in the sense of I'm very comfortable with the holdings that I have and it's just like I don't want to just keep like I don't want it too diversified. I don't like having portfolio that has too many coins in it. Um, but Ando is one that I think is going to do awesome.

[00:36:39]Invest answers and discover crypto say bottom is in. That's interesting. I That is actually very interesting. It's I'm I'm kind of curious about all the content creators that are saying bottom is in or or the bottom is not in.

[00:36:58]Dog and Knight will bring me back to even. Man, they're both very bullish. Dog is probably my favorite altcoin. It's crazy.

[00:37:18]I'm just reading comments, everybody.

[00:37:33]I don't know if the question is do I still hold ADA? I currently hold ADA.

[00:37:36]Yes, I do.

[00:37:43]But I got to I it's not it's not my most exciting play right now at all. And I think that's pretty been pretty obvious over the last year or so.

[00:37:52]Appreciate you, man. I hope you're doing well as well. you and your family do.

[00:38:00]This is this is a like I like this comment because even sometimes I think it but I do step myself I stepped back from it for a second. Uh it says all cryptos were doing perfectly fine before trade fi came in. Let's get back to the old days. It does feel like that and again like I think that too but again for me it looks that way but I don't think it is that way. I don't think it is that way at all. Um reason being is because like if I I can have I can have two thoughts. I don't feel like I can have both. So, that's one thought, right? They've ruined it all. Crypto, the fun is over. That's one thought. But the other thought is it's this. It's the PMI.

[00:38:55]It's it's the business cycle.

[00:38:58]It's this has been such a record-breaking, terrible, sideways trade for crypto, especially altcoins, because of what the Fed was doing with liquidity, right? the extraction of liquidity and how that works out for something like the crypto space, crypto assets. It's one or the other for me.

[00:39:17]And for me, I think it's way too easy to sit here and come on do videos every day and be like, man, institutionalization of crypto ruined it. Game over. The fun is over.

[00:39:29]It's easy to do it, but that would become number one, repetitive, and mainly number two, I just don't think that's what it is. I don't at all. And actually what I do think is the institutionalization, the game theory that is happening from from a global standpoint and governments adopting Bitcoin and crypto.

[00:39:54]The game theory that is behind that plays into like a valuation increase, meaning the fun is not over and it actually might make it even more more fun. Um, however, we are dealing with a lot of different things when it comes to when it comes to the macro cryptos. I love I I really do like I'm not just saying this. I'm really not. I just like comments like this. Crypto's done, man. There's no point in blindly bullish.

[00:40:36]Incredible. If you think about I don't know who this person is. I hope they have a great day and I hope they have a beautiful weekend. I really do. But if you think about it, why are why are they in a crypto live stream with that mentality?

[00:40:52]Good evening. Crypto is in the house.

[00:40:54]Dan, thanks for joining our show this week. Hope everyone is having a great weekend. Abs and Johnny.

[00:41:00]Dude, it was awesome hanging out with you guys. It really It really was refreshing. I was I was telling my wife I was even I had a conversation with my dad last night and I I brought it up. It was very refreshing, man. Just hanging out with y'all in a live stream. Um and I think even me hopping on a live stream today, I think you guys inspired me. I'm just like I'm just going on a live stream right now to talk. I just feel like talking. I don't feel like, you know, overthinking it. So, I appreciate you guys having me on. When we get into bull environments, it's going to be we're I'm gonna have you guys on the channel.

[00:41:34]We're going to hang out. We're going to attract the bull moves. And we're going to have some fun.

[00:41:50]I saw a comment. I'm trying to find it.

[00:41:52]I can't find it. I think it was about Kevin Walsh.

[00:42:00]Starting to think it might be time to get off X.

[00:42:04]You're not the only one, dude.

[00:42:08]But as somebody that is in crypto, crypto content creator is almost impossible.

[00:42:18]By the way, everybody, go subscribe to Good Evening Crypto over there.

[00:42:25]Do it.

[00:42:30]All right. I can't find the comment. I don't know.

[00:42:41]Dan, bro, I've been looking at your videos three years, but how old are you anyway? Just something I thought I thought of now. I don't know. How old do you I wonder how old you guys think I am? Actually, I'm sure many of you know.

[00:42:53]The comment about Kevin Walsh was about um he's not gonna he's not going to not going to lower interest rates next month.

[00:43:08]And I would never sit here in this moment right now and say that Kevin Walsh is going to lower interest rates at his first meeting. I would not say that at all. In fact, strategically, I don't I don't even think they would do that. I don't even think I don't even think he would try to do that. Um, and that's not what I've been saying at all. However, if you think about this as we have this new Fed chair coming into play, right, and I can't stop thinking about this. I'm telling you, I'm so curious to see how this how this plays out. We have this finally new Fed chair coming into play.

[00:43:49]Kevin Besson going on like a media tour talking about disinflation. That is a Treasury Secretary by the way everybody.

[00:43:59]He's going on this media tour talking about disinflation.

[00:44:03]How is he doing like why why would you do that?

[00:44:07]That is a very very high up role, right?

[00:44:12]Why would you why would you talk about disinflation when there's a war in the Middle East that is driving gas gas prices incredibly high, right?

[00:44:24]And driving inflation high like short this this what you see here which is oil. This is why in we were we were doing fine. Inflation was starting to come back down. Remember I mean this was like this was very bullish just months ago and then boom the war started. Oil just went crazy. And then what happened?

[00:44:44]Inflation data coming out. Everybody's talking about inflation. Everybody's talking about interest rate hikes.

[00:44:48]Everybody's talking about interest rate hikes. While Trump is saying we're going to get interest rates down quickly. And while Kevin Besson is talking about disinflation and Kevin Walsh, the new Fed chair is talking about AI productivity boom. Like, you can pick a side. I'm just choosing I'm I'm just choosing to pick the side that's coming out of administration because I I especially on in a midterm year, I just don't think that the war is going to last much longer.

[00:45:23]Rightfully so. I will say um I thought it would end sooner. I really did. And I thought oil would come back down sooner. I I did this post.

[00:45:37]Um ri r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r r rising oil prices will be shortterm.

[00:45:40]When the war abruptly ends, watch how fast oil prices fall. Potentially right through their previous floor. That was in March.

[00:45:47]By the way, I still think that exact thing. I thought it would have happened sooner. And even along the way, if I if I change this, this is oil, by the way.

[00:45:56]And this has everything to do with your crypto bags, by the way, everybody.

[00:45:59]Because if the if the war does abrupt abruptly end and um oil does actually start falling and then we get this disinflation narrative and then we get the thought of interest rate cuts back in play and then we get an economic boom. This is a domino effect that will like previous cycles.

[00:46:19]Not this isn't a new world that we'd be living in. It's a different it's a different monetary world, right? And different world of policy. But just like every other cycle with that expansion will come down the risk curve uh capital inflows and crypto will have a bull market in my opinion. But it all start it really it really starts here because what really has thrown a wrench in things and it might be kind of this thing that if you look back helped an explosive move is this. But you can just see, I mean, I I think even back here in April, beginning of April, oil's coming back down. I forget what was going on then. Maybe potential end of the war and then it wasn't. And just look, it's just been just dangling around the same area up and down, up and down, fake out after fake out um in terms of oil. But I do so maybe I think time frame wise I thought it would end sooner. Hasn't ended yet. Um, I'm not getting so faked out as much, especially when it comes to peace talk deals. I think there's a big one going on right now, like a legit big one. I'm not even really We'll see what happens, but I do think oil will fall and I think the the disinflation narrative will be right back on the table and all of those things could possibly happen by October, but unlikely. that still puts the timeline as October or later even maybe again maybe I'm wrong maybe it does maybe maybe all these macro bullish things I could very well be right about them right and that is and this is what's crazy to me this is what's crazy if I go to if I go to a weekly chart this is And I just want to be on like let's just go to right here excluding Bitcoin.

[00:48:31]This is what's crazy to me and it'll be funny and I wouldn't even be surprised if this is what happens but you know my thesis of like once PMI goes into expansion this chart will finally go into a bull market been what I've been saying and you know obviously it's been years of suppression I all my analysis has been about this what would be so funny though is if this thing just keeps hobbling around doesn't get expansion until like September, October, this thing goes into expansion finally and crypto follows and it's, you know, October.

[00:49:14]I just think it'll be funny because it's just like the four-year cycle, the four-ear cycle people will line up exactly because they're not their their theory is not based off of the business cycle and expansion, right?

[00:49:31]It's not based on that. I just think it would be funny if it lines up exactly with the four-ear cycle people's theory of a bottom in October and then maybe expansion into a bull market after that and the PMI actually does take that long. I don't know. I don't know if I'm explaining myself.

[00:49:58]So, those are my thoughts everybody. I I was really just going to do like a quick live stream. I just wanted to chat about some of these things. These headlines are crazy. Um, Ethereum losing top builders, Cardano governance drama, Sweet crashing, erasing all the gains, all of these negative headlines. Um, but there's, if you zoom out on the charts, if you zoom out on everything, it's not game over in my opinion. I'll continue to track my macro thesis with y'all. And I appreciate anybody that's still out there tracking along. I really do. If you're out there, you're not a subscriber, subscribe. I like to bring technical analysis, crypto news, 10, 20 minute videos daily. I try the best I can. So, if that interests you, hit the subscribe, hit that like, and if you're in the live stream right now, smash that like button. I appreciate you cruising through. I will see you in the next video. God bless.