Successful investing requires understanding that markets are rational over the long term but irrational at specific points, and that economies naturally cycle through booms and slumps. Investors should avoid momentum investing (buying at 100 and liking it less at 200), maintain disciplined asset allocation, and focus on avoiding the bottom 30% of stocks rather than seeking the best performers. Business cycle funds should rotate sectors based on economic conditions rather than becoming flexi cap funds. Small cap investments carry risks of bubble formation when investors chase returns after performance, and corporate governance should be evaluated through consistent dividend payouts rather than promotional narratives.
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Deep Dive
VISION | An interaction with our new CIO, Anish Tawakley| @DSPMutualFund_inAdded:
[music] Good evening partners. Welcome to this session of DSP's vision sharing our investment journey with none other than Anish Davak who has joined recently DSP as chief investment officer. My first bit of the presentation is to introduce Anish but not in the most traditional manner but a bit differently for what he stands as an investor. We are familiar as you can see on the screen three types of images. Now what is common between these three images and Anish as an investor? Temples which have stood centuries tell us the structure.
These were constructed when modern technology or construction materials were not available but still they stand the test of time. Chess is a game not about the best move but not making the wrong move. And in cricket the lovers of cricket exponents of cricket say declaring a match the traditional test cricket is what is more difficult than deciding bowling change or field placement. So we are talking about structure, we are talking about timing and we are talking about judgment. Anish as an investor as a fund manager combines all these very very effectively and we believe that is what creates investment leadership decades of experience research at different entities like Barclays Bernstein and a fund manager with one of the largest fundhouse in the country proven track record in managing different segments of the market and happy to welcome Anish to DSP his CI IO and his first interaction with a large segment of our partners.
Over to you Anish.
>> Thank you very much for the kind words Zusha. It's a pleasure to be here. I always feel that our partners play such an important role in doing the difficult job of handling clients for us. So it's always a pleasure to speak with them.
>> Sure. So you know ice and a small question.
What's your investing journey very quickly? I mean how did you become an investor? Your research background so that the audience uh gets to know Anish a little better.
>> I'll say that I basically I'm still an analyst at heart right there's nothing more than I that I enjoy than some figuring something out. how an industry works, how an industry creates excitement which is sometimes unjustified and like my journey has been I'm I enjoy economics that's my favorite subject and this investing allows me to apply economic thinking to practical life situations. So that has been the reason why I have stuck on in this career for uh for so long. So you'll catch on to it a bit later when I ask you about some of the funds that you manage. But uh you know let me uh get on to your investing philosophy. There's something very interesting you have shared in your few weeks here. I just want our audience to understand that rational and irrational part of the market philosophy which you very beautifully captured.
>> So look there are two two main aspects to it. One is that you know markets are rational over the long term.
But at the same time, markets are not rational at every point in time. That's the reality.
Second is that economies always go through cycles. We see those as periods of booms and slumps. In booms, demand is very strong. Profitability is very good.
In slumps, businesses are lying idle.
These are two realities of the world. So the investment philosophy has to follow on from this. So one, when you think about it, it's obvious, right? that if the market is in an irrational zone then you have to choose. You can either choose try to outperform or you can remain rational. It is logically impossible to outperform while remaining rational if the market is irrational.
It's logically impossible. Right? And at that points in time it's really important my in my view to remain rational not fall give into the FOMO that happens when everything's you know going up irrationally.
or going down irrational second is that given that cycles are a reality both top down and bottom up thinking are relevant right you it doesn't make sense to say I'm only bottom up I don't care what's happening to the macro it doesn't work right so you need to have irrespective of whether you even if your strength lies in bottomup stock picking you need to know the top down context otherwise you can do a lot of damage to your to your illustrates right so both top down and bottom up thinking is critical the other aspect ects are like you need to have a disciplined process around asset allocation right and particularly if you're managing large sums of money it's important to move in small increments right you need to be able to act contra one like I feel that there are many ways to be smart in the market you can be a growth investor you can be a value investor you can be a quality investor but the one thing that I don't agree with is being a momentum investor if you like something at 100 you should like it less at 200 is the simple way to way to put it right so and that is something like which will underly all our funds here at DSP that you you can have different styles but don't be moment >> sure so in other words what you're saying Anish is uh don't get carried away in these euphoric times when it happens and try to outsmart which is often what we see investors putting pressure on most of our adviserss and you know ending up making mistakes and uh as a follow on question on that if you look at the markets like you said uh being irrational at certain points of time 2024 September was the peak of the market and from there to today as my audience can see on the screen most of the indices have not delivered great returns while the narrative was something very different the flows into small caps at that point of time was one of the highest unprecedented flows we saw into the small cap segment and you are someone who is quite vocal about your views on small cap uh you know how to look at these kind of businesses what are the risks involved etc. So just want a little bit of uh time spent on that segment.
>> Look, so um small cap saw a lot of flows in the last say 3 and a half to four years. That's because primarily those flows are what we call reflexive right they were following performance and that is the mistake that is the most common mistakes in the market. to get excited after something has has delivered performance and um I've all like over the last year year and a half or in fact even over two two and a half years I've of been of the view that there's almost a bubble in in small caps see if you look at the long-term history of small caps right uh you'll realize that the period of performance was actually very short from 2020 to 24 effectively right uh if you were if you were to take a longer term view from January 2008 to January 2020. That's a 12-ear period, right? Where it's like your child going through schooling entire from class 1 to class 12.
>> So if you had put in money in January 2008 and waited till January 2020, you would have pre-COVID. Pre-COVID. Yes, that's important to note. It's pre-COVID. After that COVID hit, you would have made hardly any returns.
>> I put it up on the screen.
>> Yeah. So you would have hardly made any return over a 12 year period and people forgot that and then in that 20 to 23 or 24 period they delivered spectacular returns but then it is likely to be followed by a period of uh of disappointment. See if you enter after performance right the odds are against you that's the simple simple way to put it. Yeah, >> Anish also um interesting um you know some of the debt funds delivered similar returns >> better returns than the small cap in the 12 year period that you are talking about. Small cap also brings in a conversation on corporate governance.
>> Would you like to uh share something on that?
>> So uh two aspects right one is how do I how do you evaluate corporate governance and two how do what patterns do you see in terms of corporate governance. One is you know for me the best proof of corporate governance is the dividend payout.
>> Dividend payout >> dividend payout. If a company is it tells me the quality of earnings is genuine and the money is being returned to you. You get the cash you can decide what you want to do with it. Invest it back in the company. Invest it in in another company.
Now in terms of that's that's the what how do you evaluate corporate governance, right? there's no better proof than no matter what the company's profits am I sharing.
Um second I'd say that look what patterns do you observe? You observe that corporate governance is cyclical right? So at the top of the market promoters want to raise money. So there will be lot of good corporate governance initiatives, lot of investor conferences, very extravagant guidance about the what the beauty of and the how beautiful the outlook is for the next 3 four years and lot of investor access all questions will be answered.
Then after money has been raised people will disappear and there will be no investor access when the reality of the performance plays out. So at so from an investor's perspective right it is very important at the top of the market to not fall for the stories right do not get carried away by the stories that are being told by the investors by I get raw promoters in sorry by promoters the investment banking community the private equity community all of these you have to be very very careful of yeah so particularly for companies that don't have a history if there's a history in fact I love companies that do very few meetings with the investors right >> consistent deliver profits in line with what you would expect in an industry. So if it's an cyclical industry they aren't the perform like performance is not good in a down cycle that's okay >> that's part of >> that's part of the game right that's part of the business but and they pay dividends consistently.
So a word of caution couple of things on small cap don't chase returns don't come after returns have gone and then in bull markets or in euphoric times be conscious of what narratives you are being fed >> absolutely >> Anish I'm uh going to move into the uh next one which is a category which was not very uh popular as far as the market was concerned came into being couple of years back you have built that category uh there has been fantastic outcome for investors who have part of yours. A tough category to manage because like you said your love for economics and the macro outlook plays very important role in managing a business cycle fund but equally important is sector rotation stock selection so on and so forth. So it I think it test the knowledge the understanding the grip of micro and macro fund management want you to explain your method of managing this portfolio. What should an investor advisor look at when he is buying a business cycle fund?
>> So, uh this is a top-down sector selection fund, right? So, first point, it will always have a segment of sectors to it's not a generic flexi cap. So, at any point in time there will be a some segment of the market with some meaningful segment of the market which is whether it's sectors or industries which we will have zero. So if you have to explain to your clients how it's different from from a flexi cap you can always show that look there's this segment of the market which is zero in this fund at this point in time that will change over points MC now how will that change that will change on the economic cycles so what are economic cycles as I alluded to earlier economies go through periods of booms and slumps we'll get to why those happen but what is a boom a boom is when demand in the economy is very strong. So businesses are working flat out right so if you in your business you'll find your capacity utilization is 100%.
uh you you're struggling to even find workers or you know raw material suppliers are a challenge because supply demand is so good you say hey maybe I should even postpone this maintenance shutdown I want to take I should be taking because it's so profitable to keep operating it right so if you were running a taxi service you know should I send the car for servicing maybe not that's what a boom is right and the slump is the opposite right where if you're a factory which was operating at three shifts in a boom you'd be struggling to fill one shift in a slump and that happens because demand is weak and these period the sectors that do well in a boom or a slump are obviously different. Now it's also important to understand why these booms and slumps happen, right? Uh booms happen when people are feeling confident, right? When there's generally confidence in the economy and when people are feeling confident, they're willing to spend. Spend both for consumption and for investment. So you'll take the risk of buying a house because you're feeling good about your income stream in the future, right? So both spending on consumption and investment is high.
And the obvious fact of the economy is one person's spending is another person's income. Right? So when pe some people start increasing their spending, other people's income rise and the confidence levels in the economy rise.
>> Suffice.
>> So so it's a v virtuous cycle. The slump is the opposite, right? Slump is the opposite. What happens in a slump is people start feeling nervous. When people start feeling nervous, they reduce their spending. They want to save more. It's important to understand they want to save more now. But when you reduce your spending, one person's spending is another person's income. So in when somebody cuts their spending, another person's income falls and then it's a vicious cycle when people feel more nervous. Now important point I made was they want to save more but when incomes fall there is less to save from. So actually savings fall and this in economics is called the paradox of thrift. You try to save more you end up saving less. Right?
Now so these are the things that naturally would happen. Now this is the policy maker's job to offset this right.
So if we are in a slump monetary policy should cut rates to reduce the incentive to save. Remember your savings have actually dropped because spending has dropped. But you should reduce the incentive to save to encourage people to spend spend more.
Right?
Similarly, in a the on the government side, they should cut taxes to encourage people to spend more, right? The government should be willing to borrow at that time, right? And or very low and government should spend more. But very often the thinking is contrary to this, right?
Now this is logical but counterintuitive right it's logical that when the private sector is not spending the government should spend it's logical but it's counterintuitive because what happens is when the economy weakens tax revenues drop >> the fiscal deficit even if the government has not increased spending looks larger and all the deficit hawks you know start worrying about wrongly at the wrong point in time start saying no no this is bad government's fiscal deficit has increased. Why is it spending? But actually if the government is spending it's doing the right thing.
You should actually increase the spending at that time. So the point is that policymakers job is to work counter cycllically to offset the cycle. If the private sector is not spending is nervous and not spending government should spend should reduce rates to try to increase spending.
And if they do the right job then the cycles are more moderate. Right? The booms are less at the top of the cycle.
the government's job is to >> curtail >> curtail spending or the similarly the RBI's job is to uh curtail uh investment activity. So the point is these will always happen and the interesting thing is I don't have to take a 10-year view whether India will grow at 8% or 10%. I just have to say look will this economy is it in a slump or in a boom and is policy action such that it will lead to curtailing the bump uh sorry boom and curtailing the slump right so will we move back towards normal that's an easier call to take I don't have to take a 10-year view and the sectors that do well in a boom versus the sectors that do well in a slump are different right if you are in a slump and you feel the government and the RBI are committed to >> reviving >> reviving the economy Then don't be in doubt about oh will a 25 basis point rate cut be enough. RBI will do more if required. You just have to have the confidence that slumps don't last forever. The RBI or the government have decided to fix this slump. It will recover. So you play on cyclicals, right? So cyclicals are stocks like auto which will be beaten down at that point.
Banks, right? cement, capital goods and then you so you're basically saying look the earnings have been downgraded as much as they can be downgraded from here earnings upgrade cycle will start and that's how you pick sectors.
>> So in a sense either of the situation of the economy we have sectors to play and stocks to buy stocks to buy and the best way to rotate them and identifying the economic cycle is the way the fund is managed.
>> Exactly.
>> Right.
>> Yeah.
>> Okay. anything.
>> So, so the advantage is for an investor from an investor's point of view, right?
Very often investors like to invest in sector funds.
>> Yes.
>> But what what happens is they come in right at the top when the sector has already done well.
>> Yes.
>> Or even if they've come at the right time, they don't exit. Right. So here like if you think we we understand macro and if you like you know many times even partners ask what what sector do you like now? So I say if you're going by my recommendation then might as well take the business cycle fund and then stick with me throughout right if you trust my recommendation.
>> Multis sector >> it's a sector rotation >> sector rotation. Fair enough. Thanks for a very detailed answer on that.
I want to ask another question to you which is again a category that you have managed. It's not a very exciting category for a lot of um you know investors and partners. They say that index is good enough. It's a large cap category. But the blue chip companies for form part of that index and very often I've heard you say that today the value is largely in the uh large cap space. Again a category that you have a fantastic track record. You have taken over at DSP to uh manage that portfolio.
The stocks have not done too well in the last uh couple of months or quarters.
What is your take on that? How should one look at a large cap as a fund? What is its power to generate alpha for an investor?
>> So a few points right because there are two or three uh aspects that need to be addressed there. One is can a large cap actively managed large cap fund create alpha >> over the large cap index.
>> Yes.
>> Then the second is the comparison between large cap and small cap. Right.
So look there's 10 years back this was a very big debate whether large cap funds can create alpha or not but now if you look over the last 10 years quite a few of the large cap funds have created alpha so the evidence is with with us second you know like I know passives are a very hot topic but let me put a simple proposition to you if you like something at 100 should you like it more or should you like it less less when it's become 200 >> less >> less >> what does the passive fund do it invests more at 200 because it's become a larger part of the index >> so conceptually I'm not saying I will beat that passive index but somebody who follows the discipline of grimming reducing weight should be able to beat theoretically I don't think it's impossible right it doesn't require a genius to say look if you like something at 100 you should like it less at 200 00. So I do think like even conceptually one should be able to think about active investing.
My own philosophy as far as large caps is concerned. Look, I appreciate that large caps will have not that many multibaggers, right? So you're not looking for searching for multibaggers, but you create alpha by avoiding the the difference between the 20th and 25th is not that much. Maybe the difference between the 10th best and the 20th best stock is not that much. But between the 20th and the 80th stock, there's a big difference. So if you put a lot of effort into risk management in trying to understand where are the pitfalls and avoid the stocks that end up in the bottom 30%.
Right? The entire effort is focused on let's not worry about whether this is the best or the 10th best, but is it likely to be in the bottom 1/3? If you avoid the bottom one/ird, you do well, right? I mean the second point I like and this again is my personal other people may have a different approach uh like I have observed that uh if you are consistently second quartile which means you don't fall into third or fourth quartile but you know on a one-year basis right so if you're every year you are second quartile then on a 5year basis you end up in the top quartile >> interesting >> right and don't confuse this for mediocrity you're not Right. It is it is consistency and mediocrity are are different things. To be second quartile you have to be very disciplined about risk every year and over a 5year period you'll you'll you'll end up near the top.
You know you had started with sports analogies right? Uh I always say look for me this is like and a lot of people follow cricket. This is like fielding in the slips.
You don't have to do anything, but you have to be ready to act when if there.
So like if you if you if you hear a good coach on fielding in the slips, he'll tell you you have to only be looking at the outside edge of the bat. That's it.
You're not looking at the bowler. You're not looking at what anybody else is doing. You're not listening to the crowd. You're only looking at the outside edge of the bat. And you act when an opportunity arises.
Anish you're mentioning about avoiding the bottom 30%. In a segment which has 100 stocks which is very well researched you still find there are pitfalls or you think there are pitfalls to avoid.
>> Yes. Yes. Yes. Yes. Yeah.
>> That is a very interesting point for our viewers that being consistent in Q2 because the typical tendency is to look for the best performer of the last year but here is a very different dimension.
>> Yeah. In three years you'll be fine.
Yeah, fine. So be quile to >> consistently >> consistently on a yearly basis and then you see how it plays out over a longer period.
>> I mean that has worked for me. I'm not saying other styles are not valid but that has worked for me.
>> Yeah.
>> Yeah.
>> So uh let me move on to another uh question which is obviously bothering a lot of our partners today. We see that FIS have been pulling out left, right and center and the huge interest of Indian investors uh to go global. Uh suddenly there is lot of interest into investing in global funds. G city is opened up. There are choices available.
Uh how do you look at both these dimensions? Uh Anish.
>> So firstly like let's look at the FI question. See uh I have very simple philosophy. There are things that you try to predict and there are things that you try to react.
>> Not try to you react.
>> Yes, >> reaction you can do, right? There's no no try to you can react >> automatically, right? So there's things that you try to predict, things you try to react that you react to. Flows I react to I don't try to predict flows, right? Flows are based on moods.
It's very good topic to discuss over dinner but really there is no quantitive. There's no real good model for predicting flows. I have not come across any. And anyway, if you're buying based on flows that there will be flows, you're buying on the greater full theory, which is not a good way to invest. And you know, the third thing I find is that even if there are flows, which means inflows, supply also gets created. And that's what you saw in small cap.
Ultimately, what capped the small cap returns? There were still flows in flows >> but so many promoters and PE came out and supplied enough that it kept the returns right so the flows did not generate returns [clears throat] >> beyond the point because supply also gets created >> equally >> equally gets created right so I say look I'm not going to get into this business of predicting flows I'm going to focus on the economic outlook if the earnings are there over time see because flows can only influence multiples flows do not influence earnings right >> P gets in P gets influenced right the point is now whether if I anyway I say you should invest at least for 3 years >> if for you should do the math I'm not going to give a number because I'm not allowed to but say if you know grow at x% for 3 years earnings grow at x% for 3 years even if the multiple comes down from 21 to 19 that earnings growth is a good number you'll not be badly off yes right so there's no point discussing flows actually as far as Indians investing overseas Look, I I I mean I always recommend some diversification and at this stage I'm not saying overseas markets are more attractive than in the Indian market, but I think from a diversification perspective, if you don't have any exposure, it makes sense to have some exposure to it.
>> Interesting segment or a category which got little bit of flows last year was the multiasset category. uh the ever popular dynamic asset allocation category hybrid range from Anish uh suddenly they have started getting far more traction and the multi-asset category did get lot of interest because they have an exposure to commodities commodity did very well and some of the funds like ours do have a global exposure as well which also contributed to the returns this juncture considering the economic environment the valuation the overall uh you global and the domestic environment. Where would you place hybrids for an investor and what should our partners be doing?
>> So asset allocation as opposed to just any like a standard hybrid, right? I think asset allocation products are very good products for the investor and uh see the good thing about asset allocation is particularly they should be run with an objective dispassionate model. Right? If you when the valuations are attractive, it should invest more.
And the other thing which which people miss, right? They only think about the extremes. See, if you're running a model consistently with asset for an asset allocation product, even in a flat markets, right? If you're doing the plus -1 + one minus one, you'll generate some returns, right? If the market has been flat for 2 years, it would have moved up and down. If you were disciplined about asset allocation, increasing the allocation when the market dropped, dipped and decreasing it when it was down, you create some some returns and obviously you create the mega returns if there's a big crash and you deploy at at time. The difference between DAFF and MAF see look uh it depends on whether you're taking gold exposure outside or not. Right? If you're anyway buying gold separately also then >> uh the the DAFF might be better better suited for you.
>> Sure.
>> Right. So that depends on how people handle gold gold or the you know commodity exposure which is gold.
>> To our viewers at DSP we do have an entire bouquet of hybrid choices the aggressive hybrid the daff the math the equity savings etc which all is run pretty well on different models and different strategies are playing out in that. So that is something that all of you can uh look at it. Cash always becomes a topic of discussion uh especially when times get tough or times get too exciting. How do you look at cash as a part of the portfolio management strategy?
>> So look you uh the way I think about it is each fund manager needs to have a clear strategy which he follows then over time at the top of the market you cannot come and say I want to be zero cash and at the bottom of the market so you need to have a approach that you are consistent. So the most important thing in as far as cash is concerned you need to have a consistent >> philosophy >> philosophy either you say cash is part of the investment approach or you say it's not and then there should be some quantitative thinking just like asset allocation between cash versus not cash at least there should be something guiding it in the background see my own approach is that I work with the risk budget right so if I'm managing a large cap fund and I'm saying look I'll be 40% % active weight I then cash is an option in that active weight right so I'll say look if I've already taken my 40% active weight I've taken the positive positions where I like the stocks >> yes >> and if there are some stocks that I think will really do nothing >> I'll keep some cash right if I feel that they can these can be negative return I won't invest for the sake of it and I won't add more to the ones that I like because my activate has this budget is done with >> so in that sense like cash becomes an outcome of the overall active weight budget, right?
>> Because I'm not going to say I really like this. I'm going to become a 60% active weight fund because that's not the word.
>> Cash is therefore an >> what about a fund like a business cycle fund?
How would you look at cash?
>> I mean same right like you can have some cash, right? If you if you think look economic outlook is good but valuations are not that cheap. So you might get some dips. You can keep keep that for the for the >> So cash is more an outcome of your investment allocation, your activities.
>> Yes.
>> And then what you want to do with that.
>> Exactly.
>> Question on SIP versus lumpsum. We are you know everyday printing numbers of our SIP collections. Of course we referred to it in the small cap space. A large part of that SIPs have come in the small cap space. But when you look at the table here, the lumpsum returns and the SIP returns even in the uh last period which was the peak of 2024 to now SIP seem to be reasonably better off than doing a lump sum and this question keeps coming should we do an SIP or a lumpsum views on that in your >> it depends a little bit on what is the nature of your flows at which stage of your life cycle are you? If you're a young guy with stable income which is you know salaried income which you think will come at least for the next 20 years then your inflows are monthly. So you might as well allocate at through a sip right there's no point trying to and you're not in the business of everyday looking at the markets all the time.
>> Sure.
>> So then it's better to say look uh I anyway don't need the money for 10 years. I'll put it in some equity fund etc. >> Right. uh the challenge is if you have lumpsum money and then you have to choose between >> SIP >> SIP and you know the the the the thing that here you've said look you know SIP still outperforms lumpsum because we've been in only in a flat market >> that is right is about >> correctly >> see the the problem happens if you deploy so the the real if you are a lump sum if you have a lump sum of money the real question to ask is will you will you chickenen out >> if markets correct right that is the worst thing you can do if you if you do a sip So you have to be disciplined then about ultimately you know answer comes down to discipline only right because what what would be terrible is if you average up keep investing on the way up and the market corrects then the market corrects and then you back off because then you've averaged up. Sure that is right. That is >> most of our viewers while this data talks about 20 24 peak to now like you very rightly pointed out you have got up to your you know at points in time in the last 18 to 20 months also your averages would have looked better which is what is probably a bit of misleading information but in general if you're a long like if you have a stable inflow which is periodic it makes sense not to accumulate >> and deploy >> deploy then you upload systematically >> actually So sip still remains to be seen through the rupees average >> but being shaken out when when there's a correction.
>> Yeah.
>> So n where I think the partners play a very critical role.
So to all our partners who have uh been encouraging sips and the book that has got uh built over a period of time you know fairly stable inflows that we are still seeing and seizures are there but uh like you said it's a normal uh percentage but yes continue the sip uh for the longest period is uh extremely important. Uh thank you very much Anish.
Mutual fund investments are subject to market risks. Read all scheme related documents carefully.
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