This analysis sensationalizes routine market volatility as a systemic crisis to exploit the inherent anxieties of retail investors. It mistakes standard price discovery for a catastrophic failure, offering more drama than actual economic insight.
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Deep Dive
Silver Takes a HUGE Hit... Here's Why That's BAD for Everyone!Added:
Silver just came off of an 8day run where it went up over 20% from May 5th to May 13th. But as always, silver loves to show us that what goes up must come down. And we can take a look at that gain right here. Look at this. On May 5th, we closed at $72.83 over the course of 8 days. Like I said, it was basically a complete upward trend, closing up over 15 bucks from May 5th to May 13th, a gain of over 20%. But if we zoom in to the last two days, we went from 8751 to yesterday 8347 where it closed and then today we are now sitting at $7753.
Today it has dropped 7.84% alone. Now I know based on comments on my recent videos, some of you saw this coming, but today I wanted to talk about first why it happened, but more importantly after that, we're going to talk about what the implications for big moves like this in silver are right now.
But as for the why, I wanted to take a look at a couple of points that this article makes, which is titled, "Silver falls below key support as Fed expectations repric the market." Now, of course, guys, we're not going to read the entire article, so don't click off.
I just want to point out a couple of things here. And it says, uh, right here, it says, "The breakdown below, and this is a big one, the breakdown below a major short-term trend level intensified downside momentum across futures markets." And then it points to a 79.66 66 20-day EMA support, a level that many traders viewed as critical to maintaining the recent bullish structure. So, what that means is that the 20-day running average for silver was around $79.66 per ounce. And as long as we stayed at least above that level, we are still in a bullish structure for silver.
Unfortunately, today, as you can see, even this article shows 7804. But, as you know, we're actually well below that. Now, as I'm reading this, I just showed you we're into the 77s. Now, if we continue on down here, there's a section called Federal Reserve expectations changed quickly. Just the first paragraph right here is really all we need to touch on. It says, "The recent decline in silver closely mirrors a rapid repricing in interest rate expectations. Over the past several weeks, markets had increasingly assumed that Federal Reserve would eventually begin easing monetary policy later this year. That assumption has weakened considerably." And their key point right here makes sense now that you heard that. says the market is no longer focused on what the Federal Reserve cuts or when the Federal Reserve cuts rates.
Traders are now debating whether rates stay elevated longer than expected or potentially move even higher. And if you've been following the market for any amount of time, you know that interest rate changes definitely affect the market, especially when they are unexpected or things change from the expectation. Now, if we scroll down just a little bit more, it talks about the technical breakdown accelerated selling pressure. It says key point right here.
Once silver broke below the 7966 support zone, momentum selling accelerated rapidly as stop- losses, algorithm trading, and profit taking all hit the market simultaneously. Uh, you know, we're not going to get into this because that's basically summarizing it. And then if we scroll down here, write this one. It says, "What traders are watching next?" This is the last one I want to touch on. It says the next major question is whether silver stabilizes in the upper 70s or whether additional forelling pushes the market into a deeper correction. Now, that's a big one because one thing silver has been very good at since our crash at the end of January is it's been very good at staying above $70 an ounce. In fact, in the 3 and 1/2 months since our crash at the end of January, and by the way, you can see that we are still continuing the trend downward. As I record this video, we are now down to 7656.
But since the end of January, we have actually only had a couple of days, which happened in March, where silver was below 70. Right here, March 20th, it closed at 67.85. March 23rd, it was down below 60. And then one other time here, March 26th and March 27th. And since then, we have not seen below 60. So, we've had only four days where silver has closed below $70 an ounce since that drop in January. And that's been really good for the market because it shows that 70 is a really good support level.
That being said, if we see this correction right here or whatever you want to call it, crash continue to go down, we're sitting at 7672 now. If we see a big drop that pushes below that $70 level, that's when I think things could get really wild. But let's be real, the silver market's been wild for a while. And I mean, in the last three and a half months since this drop, and this gets into what I talked about, this is kind of the implications of what we've been seeing over the last few months. It has been bad for not just stackers, but everybody. It's been bad for stackers because, you know, it's really hard to buy silver when you may be able to buy it. Even if you're stacking for the long term, right? We talked about this just the other day with Keith. Even if you're buying silver for the long term, it's hard to buy it when you could just wait a week and buy it today. I mean, imagine if you would have bought silver, and maybe some of you did bought silver yesterday or the day before, and now you're like, man, I could have bought that same silver for quite a bit less today, right? It doesn't feel very good. And you know, for dealers, and I'm going to play the devil's advocate here for some of you, and that's because there are many people, and I've seen this in the comments, that get so mad at dealers saying, "I'm not using dealers again because, you know, they weren't buying silver or they weren't paying what I think they needed to pay, whatever it may be." And that is a totally fine opinion to have. I'm not here to tell you that your opinion is wrong or right.
What I am here to tell you, though, is that if you step back for a minute and you think about this, right, this is hard for dealers. I mean, imagine being a dealer where it's your job, your business depends on you buying and selling a product whose price can change wildly from day to day. Think about that. Imagine, you know, you're a coin shop and somebody walks in and sells you a,000 ounces of silver at $85 an ounce or whatever it closed at yesterday, right? And then today you before you even get to the It's only 8:57 a.m.
right now. Before you even walk into your store and unlock the door, silver is now at 7672. Even selling it with a premium, you are taking a haircut.
You're not going to be able to move that off to a wholesaler now. It's way too late. And that's assuming that you find a wholesaler that was even paying strong, which you know, for the most part, wholesalers aren't paying strong right now as well. So again, I'm not trying to tell you in this monologue, and I hope you're still listening. I'm not trying to tell you that your feelings are wrong. I'm not trying to tell you that you should go back into a coin shop and you should be happy taking whatever deal they give you. I am not saying that at all. I've been very adamant about pointing out on this channel so many times that the most important thing is to do what's best for you, what feels good for you, and to tell you that in most cases, obviously, you know, there's always going to be outliers, but I believe that in most cases, you are going to get the most for your silver when you sell it on your own. find another stacker that wants to buy. You want to sell, you come to a price that works for both of you. You cut out the middleman, which is the shop, who has to make a dollar or two or more, uh, you know, whatever it may be.
My point is, they have to make money on your transaction. They can't just, you know, buy it and then sell it for the same number. That's not how that works.
That's not how businesses operate.
That's not how they cover their overhead. So, it's always best to do what's best for you. Sell it on your own, you know, Facebook or or whatever it may be. Sell it on eBay if you want if you can sell it for enough to cover the fees. sell it on whatnot. Sell it, you know, at on Craigslist, meet somebody in person, make sure it's somewhere safe, like a police station or a very public place. But my point is, you know, and I'm sorry I'm getting into the spiel here, is that when you look at a shop, you can't get mad at shops for seeing these massive drops all the time.
I mean, we're talking today alone, 7:35 right now, and it's probably going to be less by the time you see this video, right? You just can't expect them to be okay with taking that haircut. they're going to buy it back of spot. So, if you don't want to use shops because of that, that's fine. I have no problem with that. Again, I'm not here to tell you your opinion is right or it's wrong, but I am here to at least tell you to take a step back and think about it from the business perspective. Think about it as an owner of a shop. I mean, look at it this way, right? If you're going to sell your car and get a new car, you are always going to get way less by trading trading it into the dealership than you would if you sold it on your own.
There's a reason that if you go to Kelly Blue Book, they have two different prices. They have a price for private sale, private party sale, and they have a different price for tradein value.
There's a reason for that, and that's because the dealership needs to make money on taking your trade. Otherwise, why would they do it, right? It doesn't make sense as a business owner to not make money on transactions that come through your door. So, again, I'm playing devil's advocate here when it comes to shops. And this is a very long monologue, so I'm sure I've already lost half of you. But I hope at least those of you that are watching understand when I'm telling you that this is bad for not just me and you and stackers. This is literally bad for everybody. We need a more stable market. We need silver to keep going up because I think we all believe that silver should be worth more than it is today. We need it to keep going up, but we need it to do so slowly and we need this volatility to go away.
I mean, nobody wants to buy silver when the very next day you could see a drop of 10%. You could see a drop of seven or eight bucks. Nobody wants to buy it in that market. It sucks. And so hopefully hopefully we see a more stable market in the future. People feel more comfortable buying silver. Shops get back to normal with their regular buy and sell like it used to be and uh we go from there. I mean, we'll see what happens, but I don't even know if that's going to happen anytime soon. But guys, listen, I just want to spend this last couple of seconds to just say thank you. I really appreciate you supporting my channel, watching the videos, hitting the like button, leaving comments, and subscribing. You guys are awesome. Do me a favor. Have a great rest of your day.
Don't forget to stack long and stack heavy. And we'll see you next time.
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