The video provides a sharp reality check on the brutal math of success, stripping away the illusion of a fair playing field. However, it borders on fatalism by presenting structural inequality as an inevitable law of nature.
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How Are You Using "Power Law"?Added:
Justice [music] where are you?
Michael and Linda are here.
>> [music] [singing] >> Love you, Linda. Where is justice?
Will [music] we ever find justice?
>> the courthouse the other day in the hallway you're singing Oh happy day.
Where is justice?
>> [music] >> When will we see it?
To be and only I lead the way hoping [music] justice will win the day.
There's no clues finding justice where we can. [music] Join us now, we're on the run. Justice is waiting, we'll see it done.
Hey, hello there. Uh welcome. Hold on just a second.
>> [sighs] >> Yesterday that was a good vintage.
Welcome to the Adjust the Surf TV Book Club. Michael Bryant here. It is good to have you along as we continue to look through our latest book selection, which is Thinking Sideways. Prepare to think sideways uh because the selection I have today applies to really anything you're doing, attempting, have tried, feel like you failed at, even if you succeeded at it um because something that Jennifer Shahade, who is the chess What's grand master is that the proper term? Um and uh and then amazing poker player.
What she's done in this book really kind of transcends all these different things you might be doing. Chess might be the platform for it. Poker she turned it into a success there as well. But no matter what you do, uh I think there's something in here that can help you do it better. Sometimes it gets a little esoteric, a little out there. Uh so never hurts to have a glass of wine handy.
Um but we're going to get into that. I want to say first of all thanks to everybody who joined us yesterday. We were up in Salem, Massachusetts for the last time I'm I'm thinking. Hopefully everything now in the Kelsey Fitzsimmons case has been transferred over to Lawrence, which I love. Great courthouse, great big park, common as they say there across the street so you can set up and do everything you need. I'm looking forward to some lovely spring / summer days in Lawrence as her case continues to unfold. Um still don't have confirmation of the reunification of Kelsey and her son, but we know it's in the works. Uh we know that yesterday all of the restrictions to that were removed. They will be back April 28th, 2 weeks from yesterday to hammer out some of the additional details and perhaps find out what they can't hammer out. Uh but in the interim uh they are working on getting these this mom and son back together, which will be an amazing thing. And and I just want to point it out when it happens just so you can kind of feel that relief that finally two What was it? 283 days now?
Um that that finally mom and and child are are back together. So a couple of other things I wanted to get into. We have coming up we're going to have the great microphone mic off.
Uh mic check. The mic check cuz we've over the year and a half now we've had various input on what microphones are working, not working, can't hear you, sound like you're garbled, sounds like you're talking in the mud.
Um and so we thought, well, let's just turn this into an experiment. We've got a few different ones we're going to try and then we'll see which ones Everybody's system of course is different. So you may have 10 people that say, "It sounds great. What are you talking about?" And you'll have somebody saying, "This sounds like crap. What happened?"
So we have to throw that in as a a variable. I'm confident we will not find something that is 100% perfect on every single system. It's just not We aren't there yet and and there are too many variables with whether you're on your phone or laptop or your TV. Whatever you may be, there's going to be some level of disconnect we just can't handle. We can only assume we get the best stuff, you know, the garbage in garbage out theory. You get the best stuff going in and hopefully on your end it comes out as pristine as seems to for the majority of of folks.
So that's in the works. I don't know I don't think it's going to happen this week. We'll probably get to it um next week. Might even do just a special show where we you know, we we we throw that out there. Maybe maybe a member first.
Uh and then we can get enough votes to decide exactly what we're going to do.
So Okay. Uh couple other things from yesterday loose ends. You know, Karen Reed had her deposition yesterday. I'm We've reached out to Alan Jackson and some other sources to see if we can get just a little feedback. Obviously we're not looking for you know, substance or details. Just just a little color, you know, how it went, how long it went, you know, was it generally um you know, um violent? No. Was Was it aggressive? Was it friendly? Was it modest? Was it You know, what what what what happened? I've been in so many depositions and and you know, when you're a young associate at a new firm, first you're in the back room doing the paperwork, which we've talked about before, the discovery. Then you know, when you graduate up to the next level, it's depositions. You become the deposition king or queen. Traveling I've traveled around the world doing depositions. Um and at a certain point it gets to be so brutal. But the thing about depositions is you can go everywhere. I mean all all you have to do is is if it ever comes to a judge making a decision is convince the court that whatever the question is is likely to lead to the discovery of admissible evidence.
Doesn't have to be admissible. Just has to be likely to the lead to lead to the discovery of admissible evidence. So I'm guaranteeing you in the Karen Reed deposition began yesterday. Maybe it's going to still be going today. This of course is in the civil case, the O'Keefe family against Karen Reed, wrongful death of Officer John O'Keefe. This is the first time depositions have begun in in all of the different cases, the federal case that's still pending and of course the case that Karen Reed promises to come against some government entities. So this is this is important in terms of discovery moving forward.
You can have I've had this before. You can have a judge kind of on speed dial if you know you're going into a a contentious deposition where the other side is going to be just nothing but Just that's it.
You can pick up the phone. Yeah judge judge Smith. Yeah. Um here's the question. Blah blah blah blah.
Um can can you tell the other side they have to respond?
It really can be that ridiculous.
And if the if the other side becomes totally uncooperative, um you can move for sanctions. And and you know, because the window for discovery in a deposition is out there. It's out there. You know, you get to trial and it might be like this. But you can't be jerking people around at a deposition just because you want to or just because you're trying to hide something. It's discovery.
So sometimes yeah, having a judge on speed dial is is the way you got to go.
They hate it. You hate doing it. But if it's what you have to do to represent your client, that's what you do. Okay.
So we're hopefully going to find out just a little little something about what may have happened in the Karen Reed deposition while we were busy in in Salem, Massachusetts. Okay, so Thinking Sideways. The part I decided to read and and by the way Jennifer Shahade and this book just came out uh last Tuesday I think it was. So you can get it at all those fine book locations, Amazon, etc. Um and she did the audio book. You know, sometimes the author does the audio book, sometimes they have somebody do it for them. There are people in the voice over biz that's all they do is books.
I've not done a book. I'm not sure I have the staying power to do a book.
Um it's a lot. It's just a lot.
My stuff is usually more commercial and short. But you can spend hours obviously reading a book. So we're not going to do that. But if you do get the audio version of this book, it will be Jen Shahade, the person you hear reading the book. So With that in mind, this is the part I want to read. If you do have a book with you, whether it's on the live as we're doing right now or you're picking this up on the replay.
This is page 140.
And the subtitle of it is the chess boom, but that's really just the introductory into what she calls and what is known as power law.
Now I I bet it's not what you think.
Okay? I bet you it's not what you think.
And thanks to Joyce who's here helping corral because I've had issues where we couldn't get the comments flowing.
You know, obviously my fault. Forgot to flip a switch, you know, whatever.
Okay, so page 140. The chess boom.
In Thinking Sideways. Here we go.
In 2020 as the chess fable warned us of the danger of exponential growth, chess itself was about to see its biggest growth curve in history. In the space of just a few months, members of chess.com grew from 35 million to 50 million members. The 2020 boom was easy to explain by extenuating circumstances.
Anything happen in 2020? The pandemic plus the incredible success of The Queen's Gambit, which we talked to Jennifer about when she was on live last week. That's the Netflix show was the streamer's top limited series to date and its success led droves of new players to try chess.
What at first seemed like a seasonal fad tagged in a TV series was actually a long-lasting cultural fixation.
In the next 2 years, chess.com grew again to well over 100 million members.
Another website, I think it's pronounced Lichess, lichess.org also experienced rapid growth. Even though Lichess is a charity with no profit motive or shareholders, interest spiked on social media, especially among high school students. That's encouraging. A smartphone turned out to be the perfect container for the square chessboard as videos that spy spliced face cams with screen captures of online games began going viral. Kids were so enamored with chess that schools went so far as to restrict chess websites.
While the growth couldn't continue at the same rate, the new era of chess was not temporary. Chess will see peaks and valleys in its popularity, but it will never be like it was before 2020. Chess has a new set point.
As online chess boomed, a small group of people benefited beyond their wildest imaginations. Chess content creators. It was particularly sweet for Alexandra Botez. Always precocious, Alexandra speaks Romanian and Mandarin and Mandarin, played for the Canadian chess Olympic team, and attended Stanford University while pursuing a successful sideline as a chess streamer. After graduating in 2017, she founded a startup called CrowdAmp, raised an additional an original raised an initial round of capital, became its CEO, but she wasn't able to raise a subsequent round. The failure stung.
At a crossroads and enjoying her side hustle as a chess streamer, she decided to take her show on the road, and in 2019, she moved to New York City to become a full-time content creator.
Soon after her move, I saw her at a New York boat party, a fundraiser for a chess charity. I gave a speech on the history of the chess queen. As we sipped champagne and sparkling apple juice, remember the chess queen, we talked about this with us last week. The queen was never going to be the piece that that moved all over the place. It it was not that important a piece, but this revelation came along, and then the queen became the most powerful piece in terms of movement. Obviously, you still have to capture the king. Anyway, um as we sipped champagne and sparkling apple juice, Alexandra complimented me on my public speaking. I pointed out that she talks to many more people than that every day from her laptop. At the time, Alexandra didn't have a manager or an agent, so she was doing it all on her own, streaming, promoting, developing.
Her followers were growing steadily, and her capital was too as donations and subs poured in to support her vivacious show with chess, music, dancing, and more chess.
However, as we stood watching the Statue of Statue of Liberty recede, she confessed to me that the decision to go into full-time streaming hadn't been easy. "I was terrified that I wouldn't grow."
Yeah, this is starting to sound familiar. Anybody that's done any sort of uh content creation, and obviously, online content creation is the the thing of the day, but creating content for whatever, traditional television as I did for for many years, um radio as I did before that, it's um you know, it's it's a very intense activity, but you do it because you love it. You know, you love to create the content that hopefully a couple of people, you know, maybe two, um will will find interesting.
"Terrified not to grow." The words struck me. This terror wasn't something I'd felt before, and now I couldn't help but wonder if I should have been more terrified. I'd always seen chess through a more creative and philanthropic lens, aspects that also grew the game.
But this growth was much slower than the type that Alexandra was cultivating. In much the same way as you grow your skills in the game itself, Alexandra grew via consistency and by seizing the moment. She told one magazine that in the midst of the chess boom, it felt like she was in the real living version of that Eminem song, "Lose Yourself."
The one with the lyrics about seizing everything you ever wanted. "I couldn't sleep. I was so high on adrenaline." She worked around the clock and saw her numbers skyrocket as sponsorship requests poured in.
When is that or do we have do we have any any sponsorships pouring in here? Okay. She lifted her brand She shifted her brand to an entertainment concept, Botez Live, recognizing the complimentary talents of her younger sister, Andrea. As soon as Andrea graduated high school, the Botez sisters moved around the country together from Austin to New York to Los Angeles, and traveled across Europe to create chess content. They collaborated with with creators of all sizes, from Mr. Beast, who you may or may not know, but this guy is he has redefined what it means to be a content creator.
Most recently, he had a uh he had a show called the Beast Games.
He did two seasons of it, which I think I want to say is on Apple, but I may be wrong, maybe on Prime. Anyway, an amazing game show in which he gave away, theoretically, his own money, um $5 million to the winner.
And it's got these creative games, um uh I mean, really, and he's just like a guy. He's just a guy.
Uh and he has a few friends that surround him, and and it's kind of like these guys were probably hanging out in a bar one day, just kicking around this idea, and then Mr. Beast grew as this amazing content um creator.
Uh they collaborated with creators of all sizes, from Mr. Beast to females chess champions just getting started in content.
Botez Live amassed millions of subscribers on YouTube and Twitch, and boomed on every social media platform.
But while some creators like Alexandra and Andrea grew their followings and income dramatically, others struggled.
Some YouTube and Twitch chess channels were losing viewership, even ones with solid content. When it came to influencers at the precipice of the chess boom, the rich were getting richer. The power law had taken over chess streaming.
Okay, here we go. Um power law starts to sound like math, but hang in there.
The power law is a mathematical formula to measure growth.
It also sometimes uses uh used It's It's also sometimes used colloquially to refer to venture capital funding and the concept that most of the profits will come from a small percentage of investments, aka unicorns. The power law is often associated with the Pareto principle.
Uh this principle predicts that 80% of a company's profit will come from 20% of its output. But as we see in chess play and entertainment, the power law can be more extreme than that. A small percentage of creators, think about everything you've ever done or involved yourself with that needs uh creation, that works with creators.
The small percentage of creators and players reap the rewards of chess growth. This blockbuster effect is more extreme than mere proportionality. For example, let's say chess blows up to five times its current size, okay?
If the most popular channel, channel A, has a thousand viewers pre-boom, and mid-size channel, channel B, has 200, multiplication would show that channel A gets 5,000 viewers. It's grown five times, right? And B is getting a thousand, five times 200. But what you often see is growth that is not proportional. Channel A grabs more than fivefold growth, while channel B gets less than expected. It's proportional.
It's She calls it it's exponential coffee beans. As chess master and PayPal founder, Peter Thiel, writes, Peter Thiel, in his boom uh his book Zero to One, "We don't live in a normal world. We live under a power law."
Tennis is another example in which power law applies. The cash prizes funneled right to the top. Those at the peak of the pyramid earn the staggering rewards, while even the hundredth best player in the world may struggle to pay their bills.
And just as in chess, this winner-take-all effect exacerbated as the game became more popular. Individual sports like chess and tennis are particularly vulnerable to this effect.
Once the elite circle is formed, it can be very hard for anyone else to break through. Now, and I thought about this as I'm reading it, and I'm thinking, I couldn't help because we spend a lot of time, Linda and I, trying to grow this thing that we're doing here, in addition to, you know, making a living elsewhere.
Um and there are folks that are at the top of that pyramid that have been here for much longer, and you know who they are. It's Levy Rozman, it's Anna Cramling, you know, with hundreds of thousands of subscribers, right? They are that that pinnacle, that elite circle as it's described by Jen.
"It can be very hard for anyone else to break through." In 2024, the Berkeley Economic Review called the inequality problem in tennis the biggest unforced error in sports. See, tennis unforced errors, get it?
Describing it as a circular, self-perpetuating cycle, whereby the top players have chance after chance to stay on top.
The same occurs in chess as those ranked amongst the top 10 players in the world get coveted invites and make millions, while those just outside may struggle financially.
In entertainment, the same effect plays out as the large majority of the profits and viewership go to a small selection of books, movies, or artists, and I would add streaming channels. The truth is that consumers prefer blockbusters.
Harvard professor Anita Elberse wrote in Blockbusters, "Because they all inherently because they are inherently social, people find value in reading the same books, in watching the same movies that others do, or watching the same streaming channels. It's not just about the quality, it's also about the community."
When you join a stream by a top chess content creator like Super Grandmaster Hikaru Nakamura or the Botez sisters, you're not only enjoying their well-produced content, you also get to chat with thousands of other fans.
Which is exhilarating even when the comments scroll by so quickly, it's hard to participate. As baseball legend Yogi Berra famously said, "Nobody goes there anymore. It's too crowded."
When an activity that you love grows or when your friends experience success, it can be an exciting time filled with opportunity. But times of rapid growth can also bring negative effects negative effects like workaholism, disappointment, even jealousy.
Those who try hard without nearing, let alone entering the winner's circle, naturally feel it hard.
The important thing to realize is that if you ever feel jealousy or frustration, that it is not necessarily a personal failing, but the system working as intended. As Morgan Housel puts it in The Psychology of Money, "Modern capitalism is a pro at two things: generating wealth and generating envy. We can't beat the system per se, but we can identify those negative emotions and find ways to move through or transform them."
During the chess boom, I noticed an undercurrent of jealousy and disappointment. For every Botez, another professional was left behind. For example, 48-year-old British Grandmaster Danny Gormally, the author of more than 10 books, once ranked among the top players in the UK, he had a number of hit online chess courses, but when chess boomed, he found his earnings and offers shrank. Not even half or a quarter of what he'd earned before.
The market had been flooded by other chess masters and creators who wanted to make a living from chess, and Danny found it hard to stand out. When we spoke, he was single and living with his parents in the north of England. He was struggling to find enough work to sustain himself and to continue his dreams of traveling the world to play chess tournaments. Sometimes, the organizers would give him room and board and even some pocket money, which chess players call conditions, but his Grandmaster title hardly guaranteed that, and he often got rejected. The whole endeavor was very hit-and-miss, and at some point, Danny decided to do what many chess players dread: get a regular job. He was flying in the face of tradition when he did this.
Britain's most decorated Grandmaster Mickey Adams himself quipped that his best chess result was avoiding a real job.
Danny got a job at a bookstore thanks to a chess-loving owner. At first, Danny was expecting some fantasy version of working at a bookstore, cats and pipes, and customers excited to talk about great literature and maybe even chess.
However, he soon found out that the reality was very different. It was a business with tight margins and little downtime. He was not very good at the role.
As much as he initially craved the stability of a normal job, he also felt a little embarrassed even though he knew he shouldn't feel that way. As a chess Grandmaster shelving books at the store, "I felt like Superman losing my powers."
He lasted only 3 months before he went back to cobbling together a living from chess coaching and writing.
"In the past, you could just plod along more easily," Danny told me. "Now, you really need a good social media presence.
I'm falling behind." His expression reminded me of what Alexandra Botez had told me. He was living out her fear in some ways, of failing to grow. He felt pressure to create outstanding content, otherwise you're just going to get lost in the overstimulated, oversaturated, machine-like chess chess world that we've turned into. But beyond blaming himself, Danny also understands the shape of growth is not designed to benefit everyone. It's difficult to get contracts or invites now. Success breeds success. It's the same people who keep getting invited. Doesn't filter down.
Even when Danny lands new gigs or clients, there are no benefits or security. He told me with refreshing honesty that it's hard to see so much success in the chess world but reap so little reward himself.
"They're earning X amount of money, and I'm earning very little. You start to become embittered."
I tried to instill in Danny some hope for the future, reminding him that his rare frankness and humility, ironically, could be what sets him apart from other Grandmasters. By the end of our chat, he was getting a new wind of motivation as he reminded himself of what he loved about chess and its literature. He planned to write a new book, design a new course, maybe start a Substack.
"I've come to realize recently, you know, you're not going to live forever.
You might as well keep going after it."
Danny was in the process of reconnecting with his why.
Danny's experiences are not specific to chess. We might recognize those feelings of falling behind, of jealousy, of hopelessness, no matter what industry we're trying to advance ourselves in.
Due to survivorship bias, it's far more common to read about success stories like the Botezes, while the stories of those who are stagnating are not reported on. This can further negative emotions, and it may appear as though everyone around you is crushing it, while in truth, there are people in all stages of their growth cycles. Your job is to catch your own wave, not someone else's.
There you go. Uh I thought it was fascinating, and maybe it's because I had I kind of put it into the the box that we're dealing with here Justice Served TV. I think we've done some good things. I think we have better things on the horizon. But you do get, you know, you look off and you see those who've done it uh longer, and I'm not going to make judgments about whether anybody's done it better, um but longer.
And because of the success they gained, they that success propels them into further success.
Humans are creatures of habit as well.
We're we're very lazy. So, if you find something you enjoy, uh it's much easier to just turn on that channel again, and why make the effort of seeing what else is out there? So, that's the challenge, you know, try to make things interesting enough that people will make that effort to say, "Hey, um you know, I just checked into this other thing, and uh you got to check it out. See what see what you think." And hopefully, you know, if you provide that entertainment, infotainment as I like to call it, to enough other people, then you know, then you move on and you and you you kind of go up that success ladder, right? All right, then.
Uh I think if you haven't uh if you haven't considered thinking sideways, you should. You can see how uh how it might apply to just about anything you're doing. Not just Don't just think, "Hey, this is a chess book." It ain't a chess book. It's kind of a life book.
Uh and uh I always think there's uh never a bad idea to learn a little more more about uh life, all right? Okay, folks, uh I I think we're going to do one more chapter in this next week. I'm not sure. Uh still kind of up in the air. We got a few other things we are we're working on. Uh and for tonight, if you're seeing this live, for tonight, we are getting deeply back into Sandra Birchmore uh because there've been some new developments uh on the scientific front, on the legal front, uh and we're going to have on Mizzy, who is uh she talking about uh chess queens.
She is the queen all things Sandra Birchmore. Of course, that's a young woman, 23 years old, um murdered allegedly by Matthew Farwell in her apartment in the Stoughton, Canton, Dedham triangle of terror.
So, um uh we're going to get into that.
Uh Barb, um uh Sandra Birchmore's relative, we believe one of the last to speak with her before she was killed. She'll be back on, always a wealth of of information and insight into this this poor girl, and as you know, 10 weeks pregnant at the time she died. Who the father is still technically unknown.
Matthew Farwell has tested not the father.
Uh and then there was that little story that came out where a pleading had so been so poorly written in a footnote made it sound like his brother William, Billy, was the father. But there was That was immediately squashed in a in a I've never seen a a motion refiled to correct a bad footnote.
But that's exactly what happened. The footnote was written so poorly. What they meant to say was that the father was yet to be identified, but they wrote it in a way that made it look like, "Oh, looks like William Farwell is the dad."
No, that that is not I don't know that they're saying they ruled him out, but they were certainly saying, "We're not saying he is the father. That person is not We know who it is." By we, I mean the authorities.
It's known who it is. It has not been revealed. So, we'll see. So, anyway, that'll be tonight. Uh and then we'll talk about some of the legal uh aspects of that as well, because, you know, he's in jail, and his attorneys continue to try to get him out of jail. His trial's coming up on October 5th. His attorneys keep trying to get him out of jail, get him out of jail, bring emotions, and do that You You got to have some sort of changed circumstances whenever that happens. But it seems to me the circumstances keep changing uh against him, not in his favor. And now we have this new DNA that they found on Remember that the the ME from the area ruled it a suicide, stuck by that even after the feds brought charges saying it was a murder, even after Linda Kenney Bodden's amazing husband Dr. Michael Bodden was hired by the family and and determined it was a homicide. That's what triggered the feds to do the same. That's what triggered the charges against uh Farwell. So, the ME has always said, "No, no, it's a suicide." Well, we've sent them the ME a note a couple of times, and once the response was, "Hey, this still investigation. I can't really chat about it." Well, now, I think we're beyond that and so we're re- reaching out again to the ME at the time, the doctor, who performed the autopsy and said suicide once and suicide twice and apparently as more evidence comes in continues to say suicide. And this new stuff says, "Hey, there was DNA on the ligature which apparently was a backpack strap and semen in her underwear from which they can get DNA as well." But I guess, I mean I'm no scientist, but I think once you have the DNA, you have to test it. Is that to see who might be attached to it?
So, they got the first part.
We have the DNA.
Never tested. So, all of that to come tonight 6:00. Hope you'll join us for that and then I believe tomorrow, I can't remember what we're doing tomorrow. I know that on Friday we have a special show about proctorizing. It's a proctological exam of the request that Proctor has made, you know, disgraced former Massachusetts State Trooper, Michael Proctor.
He's made a request for information.
Everybody wants stuff in everybody's phones and they want it capped, but he's not involved in the lawsuit or any of the actions that relate to the phone. He's He's like parachuting in in hopes of using some sort of information that he thinks exists in his own defense in other cases.
Very interesting maneuver, but we're going to get into that. That's going to be coming up Friday night. We'll get into that. All right. So, in the meantime, as always, thanks for joining.
We appreciate it. If you're watching it live, we appreciate your membership. It continues to grow and we we like that. We we hope that we're providing enough little member first nuggets that the membership is worth something because you do pay a couple of bucks a month for it and we appreciate that. So, we're going to keep doing that and doing our other thing for our normal overall subscriber base which I think, let me check. Let me check now.
Again, this is live, so if you're watching this on the replay, it may have already occurred, but let me check. Let me check. We were close to another little baby a baby milestone. Let me see if we're there or not. I know we're very close. Hold on. I'm looking looking standing by looking.
We're about 50 away from from 36,000.
So, if you haven't done that, do your subscribing, your liking, your sharing and do all those little things you're supposed to do and of course come back.
We'll have more for you at Justice Served TV. I'm Michael Bryant. Hey, try to do the right thing.
I said, "Sometimes my button doesn't work."
Who hasn't had that problem?
Try to do the right thing.
>> [music] [music and bell]
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