The Next 24 Hours Are Crucial For Nvidia Stock Investors!

Ajouté : 2026-05-19

[00:00:00]Nvidia is about to report its fiscal Q1 earnings this Wednesday. This single company has been the absolute locomotive driving the S&P 500 and the entire tech ecosystem. Ahead of this specific report, expectations aren't just high, they're practically in the stratosphere.

[00:00:15]So today, Jose and I are going to look at the numbers the market's demanding, whether a beat is even enough to keep the stock moving up, and we're going to break down exactly where that quarterly data does and doesn't matter for long-term investors. Now, if you want to navigate what could be a massive week of volatility and stay grounded, hit the subscribe button right now and let us know in the comments. Are you holding your shares through earnings? Are you sitting on the sidelines? Uh, Jose, let's jump straight into market expectations.

[00:00:41]>> Thank you, Rachel. Let me just say I'm holding my shares through this earnings through the next earnings and hopefully for multiple more years. Now, uh, Rachel, let's talk about the raw numbers because this is where things get a little bit wild. For quarter 1, Nvidia's own official revenue guidance sits right at 78 billion, which would be a 76.8% increase from a year ago. And this is going to be a reaceleration of growth.

[00:01:05]And this is a massive play, right? 78 billion and seeing a reaceleration in growth. Now, Wall Street consensus is already stretching that further with analysts expecting close to 79.2 billion in revenue and adjusted gross margins right around 74 to 75. Now, when people ask, "Will Nvidia beat?" Historically, the answer is almost always yes. Over the last year, Nvidia has beaten estimates. They've cleared them by billions of dollars nearly every single quarter. Some of the ultra bullish banks on Wall Street are whispering that revenue could easily easily cross 80 billion for the quarter, driven entirely by the crazy demand for their data center accelerators. But here is the problem. For short-term traders, a B is already baked into the price. The stock has been trading near all-time highs, and I'm super excited about that heading into this print. In the past, we have seen Nvidia deliver flawless quarters, but because the market expected an absolute miracle, the stock pull back on profit taking. So yes, they will likely beat the $78 billion guide, but the actual market reaction entirely depends on how aggressive their forward guidance is for the next quarter. Analysts want to see forward guidance nor numbers pushing well past 80 billion. If they got for anything less, the market might throw a temporary tantrum.

[00:02:29]I mean, so to put it bluntly, the the exact revenue beat, whether it's 79 billion, 81 billion, it doesn't really matter to a five-year investor, a margin fluctuation, for example, of 50 basis points on a Wednesday afternoon, doesn't change the durable value of this company. I think maybe one of the biggest traps that investors can fall into with Nvidia is treating it like a traditional cyclical hardware stock. you know, in those old tech cycles, hardware companies would experience a massive surge in demand, you know, overproduce inventory, suffer a brutal crash. Um, and and sometimes those with a short-term investing mindset, they might look at every single quarterly report trying to guess when that peaks peak arrives. But I really really think as we're looking at this business, we're seeing those tailwinds being driven by data center revenue and otherwise. This is a very durable growth runway ahead.

[00:03:19]>> Yeah. and and and Rachel, if if you're holding the stock uh for the next decade, right, you have to realize that the coordinated revenue blips are completely relevant compared to the structural shift happening in this massive massive AI wave. Now, obviously, I'm not going to say if if revenue misses, then it it's the greatest thing for investor, but there's so many things that could go wrong here, Rachel, right?

[00:03:40]There could be some delays with maybe one of their customers. Maybe a data center or something took a little bit longer to build out. Maybe something shipped a little bit later than expected. It doesn't mean that the cycle is ending, but a lot of fear and a lot of perfection is priced in. Uh, so as a long-term investor of of Nvidia myself, I listen to the earnings call. I think the earnings call is super important. I don't think there's going to be much of a shift um for my long-term mindset. So, what happens if the stock drops eight or 10% after the call because of uh minor technicality and their gaming segment?

[00:04:16]maybe some delays a little bit that um are okay now. Um it changes nothing about that core reality. Uh another area that doesn't matter right now is the noise surrounding neo-term market share drop due to competitors. We're seeing a lot of competition rise from AMD from Google with their CPUs and bears love to point out that competitors are launching cheaper AI chips but the market is growing so fast. So even even let's say this put this in in a scenario where even if you lose market share if the market is growing much larger than that your revenue can still grow your earnings per share can continue to grow.

[00:04:53]So worrying about whether a specific cloud provider bought a few thousand fewer chips this this exact quarter is more of a distraction. You have to focus on the overall foundation and more importantly the way that AI continues to evolve with new solutions. So I'm also keeping a closer eye on what anthropic and open AI are releasing in the upcoming quarters.

[00:05:15]>> Well, I think it's also really important to talk about where we are fixing our radar as long-term investors. And I think one key area is the sustainability and longevity of Nvidia's demand footprint. F. So first we really need to look at the product transition timeline.

[00:05:30]So Blackwell is now fully established as the core widely deployed workhorse of the AI data center world. So we really need to monitor you know how smoothly is Nvidia progressing through its annual architecture cadence and also I think we should be looking towards that Vera Rubin platform right this is not just a simple chip upgrade it represents an entire system level architecture redesign that integrates custom Vera CPUs advanced networking switches nextG memory and it's designed to slash large language model token costs by a very uh strong margin you know the other thing to dig into as well and I'm really looking forward to hearing comments from management that's going to inform us to this end is the sustainability of customer spending. Right? So Nvidia's core business model relies on a handful of the tech giants you know Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet spending billions of dollars on data centers. Um every single one of those companies by the way has explicitly stated that they're increasing their AI capex budget. So of course that bodess well uh for Nvidia that's essentially their future revenue pipeline. So, I think if we continue to see Nvidia's data center revenue uh on this explosive trajectory we've been watching, it really proves that big tech's commitment to building the AI cloud is really locked in for the next few years. And and finally, keep a close eye on that high margin software and networking mode. I think this might be one of the more underrated aspects uh of Nvidia's business model. You know, they're not just selling a piece of silicone. They sell the fully integrated proprietary computing platform. uh you know developers write AI models using Nvidia's uh CUDA software ecosystem that's completely locked into Nvidia hardware. So you know if those software and networking segments are growing as well as a percentage of total revenue I think that is a sign to us as investors that their ecosystem lockin is deepening even further. feel like everything is a secret weapon for Nvidia from their software from their networking like you mentioned the Ver Rubin is no longer just one chip that you're upgrading it's a whole full AI stack system right it's a whole system that's really helping reduce the cost of token now as as we're kind of getting into earnings I do want to share what I'm truly keeping a closer eye on to and since the last earnings call there are a few things that I'm excited to hear about the enterprise monetization right as you stated earlier a big amount of their customers are the big cloud server providers but we are seeing a shift a shift towards more enterprise players adopting AI solutions. We've recently have heard more about the CPU shortage. Nvidia has the Vera CPU that you talked a little bit about earlier that is also now being sold as a standalone. The company made an acquisition of a unique AI chip called Gro with their LPUs integrations with those chips. Have we have any more information about the market? And more importantly, just a few months ago, Jensen mentions that the Vera and and Reuben platform has nearly a backlog of $1 trillion for the next two years up to 2027. Has there been any update to that trillion number uh trillion dollar number? So, Nvidia story has been about selling to a few massive US cloud providers. That story is shifting. The market is getting bigger. Um, and these are some of the things I'm going to be keeping a closer eye on for this upcoming earnings.

[00:08:51]>> Awesome. Well, uh, fools, we want to hear your strategy heading into Wednesday. Uh, let us know your thoughts in the comments section below. And if this breakdown gave you some clarity, help you look past the short-term noise to think like a long-term investor. Tap that like button for us and make sure you're subscribed with the notification bell turned on because Jose and I will be dropping our full unbiased earnings recap when the numbers go live. Thanks for watching and we'll see you next