From Hormuz to Your Wallet: US–Iran Deadlock and India’s Risk Explained | DeKoder

追加: 2026-04-30

[00:00:00]Hello and welcome to this episode of India and the world on decoder. I'm Nidhi Razdan. Well, the US Iran talks are currently in a stalemate. We just don't know where they're going. There was an abrupt cancellation of a second round of talks just a few days earlier where President Trump uh called off his team from traveling to Islamabad again uh to meet with the Iranians. Pakistan of course has been uh the mediator uh in these talks and at the moment there's no clarity on what happens next. Now all we have seen today in the last few hours has been a social media post because what else does uh Donald Trump do at 4:00 in the morning his time and uh you know he's he's just put a you know a picture of himself holding a machine gun and wearing sunglasses saying Iran can't get their act together. They don't know how to sign a non-uclear deal. They better get smart soon. No more Mr. nice guy. Now, what does that mean? What's he threatening to do? He's not threatening to end any civilizations this time. Uh but you know, there is a new threat that's out there. Now, one of the things that we have heard about in the last few days has been a proposal by Iran to the Americans, which is that look, we are ready to discuss how to open up the Strait of Hormuz, uh which is basically the biggest bone of contention at this point. They're ready to do that as long as the Americans lift their naval blockade of Iranian ships going to and from. Uh but they're not ready to talk about uh their nuclear stockpile. Now, that's not acceptable to the Americans is what the American media is reporting.

[00:01:30]In which case, we are sort of in this dead end position. So, what happens next? Let me introduce our distinguished panel today to take us through the uncertainties of the next few days and weeks. Because remember the longer this stalemate continues the worse it is for the global economy and for all of us folks uh who are of course dependent on fuel for everything. Ambassador Moan Kumar thank you very much for joining us. He is or has been India's ambassador to France to Bahrain and is currently with the OP Jindu Global University where he is the dean and professor.

[00:02:03]Thank you very much. He's joining us from Delhi. Uh David K. Johnston is a Puliter Prizewinning investigative journalist, the author of The Making of Donald Trump and teaches at the Rochester Institute of Technology, where he's a professor of law and journalism.

[00:02:18]Thank you very much, Mr. Johnston, for being with us. And Ryan B is a senior Middle East analyst at the Rain Network, which is the risk assistance network exchange. He is joining us from Philadelphia today. Thank you very much to all of you for being with us. Um, Ambassador Moan Kumar, I'd like to begin with you. uh this is such a fragile ceasefire and how worried are you that the longer this stalemate continues uh the longer we are in this state of limbo both politically and economically?

[00:02:48]>> Uh thank you very much for having me.

[00:02:50]No, I am extremely worried. Uh truth be told, uh one of the things that has not entered anybody's calculus is the impact this is having on countries of the global south. Just leave aside the issue of Iran and the United States for a minute, the nuclear and so on. Those are important, but imagine the consequences for an African country that has no oil and the food inflation, the fertilizer, the helium and and the rest of it. I think that is really disastrous and even for a country like India I mean already you will see from the predictions being made that they are shaving off 1%age from the possible GDP growth that India needs and India needs to grow at 8 to 9% if it is to tackle the issues so I am legitimately worried as an ex diplomat the macabber optimist in me tells me that we are still in the state of brinkmanship by both sides where both sides are seeking to gain negotiating leverage so that when the deal happens sooner or later they can have the upper hand but that I have to tell you Nidhi is an overly optimistic scenario the two other scenarios that are possible one of course is a deal and we all go happy uh back home and and that's not happening anytime soon the two other scenarios the first one is we go back to war, hot war.

[00:04:20]And I would be inclined to think today that that is extremely unlikely to happen. So the most likely scenario, it seems to me, is this no war, no peace kind of scenario lasting for a substantial period longer. Uh I've just been um told that 154 tankers with oil passed through the straight of Hormos this month. Normally we are used to getting that much in a day. So you can imagine the consequences for energy supply and energy security. So I don't want to to to give you too long a response but I hope this period of no war no peace leads to a deal soon. I would say just three issues and I will then shut up Nidi. First of course you have the issue of what to do with a straight of Hormuz that's occupied center stage and I would suggest to you that the visit of the foreign minister of Iran to Oman is related to this aspect because Oman and uh Iran as you know co-own the state of Hormuz the second is the nuclear issue and the nuclear issue you have two dimensions which is what to do with existing uranium which has been allegedly enriched to 60% % and then of course a commitment that no further enrichment of uranium. I would suggest to you that the trip of the Iranian foreign minister to Russia may have something to do with whether Russia can take this enriched uranium and whether the United States will be happy with that. The two other issues are the most difficult in my view. One is Iran would want immediate lifting of sanctions. It's only then that they can open the straight of Hormuz. They need money for reconstruction. They need their assets to be unblocked. And and finally, finally, and finally, finally, sorry, a non-aggression guarantee. And that guarantee will have to involve not just the US, but the five members of the security council, some guarantee that Iran doesn't get bombed again. So those really are the paniply of issues that >> I think that's probably the toughest one given that we've seen Iran getting attacked not once but twice in less than a year while they were talking to the Americans but I I there are a number of important points that you raised and and Ryan bowl just to come up to the point of the straight of horm because getting oil tankers to get through that passageway is so important for world economies right now for all of us. How long do you think Iran can continue uh to to sort of hold that hostage in in in a sense? Uh they they're also have you know they are also suffering economically um and and you know it's not easy for them but clearly they found that this is leverage that they have but how long do you think they can hold out?

[00:07:15]>> Well there's two different timelines that we can think about here with the uh the United States and the Iranians. The Iranians have a lot of pressure in the long term. You know, as we were noting with your other guests, reconstruction is is a major imperative for them. It's something they must deal with, but that's more of a 12-month, 24 monthth uh timeline. And and that suggests that they can keep pressure on Hormuz and continue to take the economic blowback at least for a few more months because their ultimate goal is is to deter the United States and the Israelis from carrying out another campaign uh against them. And that won't be accomplished through an international institution like the United Nations, which the US and Israel ignore pretty routinely. It has to be carried out through the collapse of political will in the US to support such a campaign. And the most effective way to do that is to cause real economic pain here in the United States that's lasting enough to cause Trump to to rethink another escalation into the future. So the Iranians have some advantages in the short term, but they don't have those advantages the longer this dials out. The Americans on the other hand, they can recover from Hormuz's closure and the US is an energy producer. It's adapting in new ways to to live without the uh uh the strait in the long term. But the immediate pinch pinch at the pump uh the pinch for semiconductors for fertilizer that's all hitting this year right now in front of the midterms in November. And that means the timeline for the US is more about reopening Hormuz between now and November to try to mitigate some of those political effects. So we can think of it as they're almost their their incentives are differently aligned in terms of how long they can hold out for this. It does favor the Iranians for a while, but it doesn't favor them in the long term. Their economy will be crippled and be unrepable if they don't find a solution to this uh within the year. On the other hand, the United States can only put up with this for a couple more months before the political effects become really fatal for the Trump administration.

[00:09:14]>> A couple of more months sounds like a lifetime. I mean, when when when you look at the fact that European airlines are already cutting back flights, Lufthanza announced thousands of flights that it was actually cancelling now in the summer. Indian airlines have now warned just yesterday that unless the government intervenes somehow on jet fuel prices, they may have to uh you know, ground their aircraft. And so you know this is real that you know we we're already hearing of cooking gas shortages in different parts of India as a result of this. So David K. Johnston you know the question is uh how do you bring the two sides together? I mean that's the million-dollar question. There's such a divergence so much mistrust u from from both ends. Where can they meet halfway?

[00:09:56]>> Well let me first say that I agree with both of your other guests in their analysis of this. Okay. And the underlying problem for the United States is that Donald Trump on February 28th was offered a deal that he could have gone out and done as Donald, whom I've known and covered for almost 40 years wants, which is, "Oh, I got a better deal than Barack Obama. I'm a better negotiator." He, by the way, is a terrible negotiator. I've negotiated with him many times. Um, and either the two amateurs he sent to negotiate, his son-in-law, the grifter, uh, Jared Kushner, who's part of the Trump Kushner crime family, or and Steve Witco, who's a real estate guy, um, they either didn't get the signal from the Iranians in Geneva, they didn't understand it, or they didn't tell Donald Trump, or Trump didn't care. All of those are possible, and we're not going to know for some time what happened there. But the Iranians, if they want to bring an end to this, need to find some way to uh allow Donald Trump to walk out from the White House and say, "See what a brilliant genius I am. See, it all worked out." Because that's what he wants and needs. And he had that. He just didn't know he had that. And that's that's really the real nut of the problem. And at this point, even if the straight of Hormuz opened up tomorrow, we're still going to have serious declines in economic growth, uh we if it goes on much longer, we are going to enter a worldwide recession. Uh and we're beginning to see the longer term effects of this. Uh last week there was a huge draw down of American uh commercial stocks of oil uh diesel fuel and other refined products. That can't go on for a long time because you don't have a limited amount of stocks in place. Uh we're seeing uh the uh delivery price of oil in Sri Lanka uh 10 days ago hit $248 a barrel. you want to shut down the world economy, $248 a barrel will do that. Now, that's a a poor country with weak finances and a lot of other things.

[00:12:06]But, uh, so it's it's somewhat of an anomaly, but it could become the norm if this goes on.

[00:12:14]So, the key thing is the Iranians need to find a way to let Donald Trump claim he beat them. It's not going to bother them to do that one bit, but nothing will move until Donald can claim he he's a victor. And if he has to burn down his own party to do it, that's Donald. He'll do that. Donald only thinks about Donald. He does not think about the world. He has no understanding of the most basic issues about economics, culture. I've often said that if you ask Donald to explain the schism in Islam between Shia and Sunni, he would turn around and say, "Look at these beautiful drapes I've put up in the Oval Office."

[00:12:52]Because he hasn't a clue.

[00:12:55]Well, I I I I do want to ask you a follow-up question then, uh, which is that how do you, uh, you're saying he's willing to even burn his own party to the ground >> as you and Ryan Bowl have talked about the midterms coming up in just a few months in the US. Do you think uh there is enough anger amongst Republican voters about this war? Is that building up? I know it's there in the MAGA universe. We are seeing the MAGA influencers are very upset. Tucker Carlson is upset. Uh, Megan Kelly is upset. Great. But are ordinary American Republican voters upset enough? Are they following this war enough? Is this impacting them enough for them to vote differently?

[00:13:31]>> Well, keep in mind that half of Americans read at the level of a 12year-old or younger and almost a quarter read at the level of a 7year-old. So, we have a huge population of, as Donald likes to call them, the poorly educated. And they don't understand anything about these larger issues. Here's what they do know.

[00:13:50]Gasoline is more than $4 a gallon.

[00:13:52]Diesel is as high as $6 a gallon. And that they understand every day of the week. Now, Donald doesn't want to burn down his party, by the way. But he he will end up doing that because of his own ego. I mean, Donald sincerely believes that he is a special person that he is should run the entire world because all the rest of us were idiots.

[00:14:14]That's one of the reasons way back in 1988, I was the first person to write about Donald being in the White House.

[00:14:19]someday because you combine this ego with the most masterful skills as a con artist I've ever seen. And my stories have sent a lot of con artists to prison over the years when law enforcement then decided to follow up on what I wrote.

[00:14:33]>> You and the Simpsons got it right.

[00:14:36]>> Yes.

[00:14:38]>> Well, well, you know, you know, you know, that's really interesting. Um but you know coming back to to the geopolitics of this uh Ambassador Muan Kumar uh you you you know you alluded to to a possible Russian role when it comes to the uranium stockpiles of Iran basically without Russia and China what you know in whatever role it may be behind the scenes is a deal possible.

[00:15:03]>> I think the brief answer to that question is no. I I can I can think of a variety of situations where you can get the straight of hormos to be opened without China, Russia in the sense of you know just the Iranians and the Americans deciding for example I would suggest to you that one possible offramp would be that the US gets the straight of hormos to be open and President Trump can claim victory and say I got them to open it and And then in return the Iranians can say that we had the Americans lift the blockade. Without lifting the blockade obviously the straight of hormos would not be open.

[00:15:48]But even to do this I'm afraid there has to be a lifting of sanctions visa v Iran. So frankly Nidi I see the deal as two or three phases and I think the nuclear cannot be solved in the first instance. What you can get is a commitment from Iran that we will not ever make a nuclear weapon. And they can cite the late Ayatollah Kamini's word for it. They can say that our supreme leader who is now in heaven whatever is is is saying now that you know he has said that we will never there was a fatwa actually that Iran would never make a nuclear weapon. If they can do that and if we can get the straight of hormos open and then you will need long and painful negotiations and I have to say and not because I'm an ex-Indian diplomat Pakistan is not qualified to be a mediator beyond a particular stage to be fair they've done a good job and I think they've achieved a ceasefire you have to give them credit but I think the Omanis have to be brought back they were doing a lot of this work behind the scenes means and it is some country like Oman that can really take this conversation forward on the issue of the nuclear and the other related issues. So I see this as a two or three-step process. But if we can at least get the straight of hormones open then uh it will just mean that at least psychologically the markets will react positively. But I agree with my co-panelist it is going to take some time before it has an impact on energy supply. But at least we would have made a beginning somewhere.

[00:17:33]>> In fact of crude are at about I think 50% more today than they were before the start of the war. and and you know there's so much nervousness. You can see that in oil prices. Uh uh but but Ryan Bowl another important development that's happened in the last 24 hours has been uh the UAE's uh announcement that it's going to exit uh the big oil cartel OPEC uh where which Saudi Arabia heads.

[00:17:56]Uh and if you could just explain to us very simply what are the implications of that? What does this mean? uh you know at a time when there is so much pressure on fuel supplies and fuel prices uh and of course I know it it's also linked to a very old uh rivalry between the Saudis and and the Amiratis. So it very simply what are what is the impact of this going to be?

[00:18:18]>> The short-term impact is not very much.

[00:18:20]The Amiradis aren't able to get out their oil because of the the Hormuz closure and disruptions at Fujera and things like that. But it does first weaken OPEC's leverage over the global oil market once Hormuz is normalized in some capacity or the region adapts to life without Hormuz. After all, they're building pipelines. They're putting together trucks. They're getting railroads that they're trying to build.

[00:18:42]They're trying to build infrastructure that will bypass Hormuz into the into the future. And that'll take a while.

[00:18:48]But if the Amiradis are no longer part of the price cartel, they can drive the price down further. So it does suggest this scenario almost that once we see Hormuz opened, the Amiradis can be part of this trend where we almost see an oil glut as as all of the oil that's been in storage because of this this this war suddenly surges into the market and then there's no discipline from the oil producers through OPEC um at the level that we used to see to keep prices elevated. And that's a real issue for producers like Saudi Arabia and Iraq that have high oil break even prices.

[00:19:19]But it's a real win for countries that are currently hitting or hurting right now like India, Sri Lanka, you throughout Southeast Asia that really do need lower uh energy prices.

[00:19:30]>> And do you agree with Ambassador Muan Kumar that Oman uh you know is is the key here? I mean obviously apart from the Russians and the Chinese and big the sort of the big overarching role that they play in their influence uh you know with these countries but uh is Oman the key and it was playing that role earlier as well.

[00:19:48]>> Unfortunately the the true key is Donald Trump himself. Uh a lot of these countries are very competent and understand their regions extremely well but their messages haven't been getting into this White House. Uh they didn't in the first term. They haven't been doing it in the second term. Trump has been choosing to escalate this crisis because he sees it as a legacy uh issue. He wants a comprehensive deal with the Iranians that fundamentally shifts the relationship between the US and Iran, similar to what he did to Venezuela. He really sees Venezuela as a massive victory and he thinks he can repeat it with the Iranians. Until he abandons that notion, uh and it's very hard to know how one would convince him to abandon that notion, uh regional mediators will be kind of talking to a brick wall. uh they can be very competent, very skilled diplomats from Oman, even places like Turkey or Qatar could also be involved, but if they're telling Witco and Kushner things that they don't want to hear, they aren't going to be transmitted up to the White House and it's not going to move the diplomatic needle. Uh unfortunately, >> uh finally, David K. Johnston. Uh, a question that I had on my mind was whether a May 1st deadline for Trump to decide what to do one way or another was important because that's I think when he would perhaps have to go back to Congress if he wants to continue with this war with Iran. Uh, can can you shed some light on that? Uh, h how would that play out? Um, does he really have to go back to Congress?

[00:21:12]>> Well, let's start with the baseline.

[00:21:14]Under the American Constitution, only Congress can declare war. though this is an illegal unconstitutional war and Trump doesn't have the funding for it.

[00:21:24]So uh in order to continue this at some point he has to get an authorization for more money. He's seeking to increase the US military budget which is in round numbers a trillion dollars to a trillion half dollars and has said he wants to pay for it by things like ending uh social security which is our old age income program for people like me. um uh medical services for those who qualify by age or poverty. Uh and Congress is so far the Republican leadership continues to bend their knee to him and to whatever you want, Mr. President. We're going to give that to you instead of fulfilling their obligations. And the longer this drags on, the worse the uh problems are going to be for uh financing the US military. Uh and the big winner in this in the background as as I look at this at the moment is President Xi in China who's been patiently working to create a Chinese century. Uh has the same view of issues as the Vatican. We are here forever.

[00:22:29]Whereas American politicians think in terms of the next election which in this case is about six months away. So uh the the fundamental uh military problem here is Trump doesn't have the resources uh under the POW doctrine. He certainly can't launch a land invasion because we don't have the troops to do it alone and he has managed to denigrate annoy and turn away the allies who could have been helpful as we saw after 911.

[00:23:00]>> Absolutely. And uh al although you know what we we had that rare moment where you saw even Kier Stalmer of Britain uh saying no thank you this is not our war and then you have king Charles and Queen Camila in in Washington as we speak. Uh so some some kind of mixed signaling there as well from some of the allies but it has been remarkable how so many of of America's European allies have sort of pushed back. If you parse the King's speech to Congress, you will notice that he actually got a lot of criticism of Donald Trump in a very diplomatic way. Exactly the kind of thing that would go right past Donald.

[00:23:36]>> Exactly. Oh, well, thank you very much to all of you for joining us. Uh let's see, you know, what else we see on Truth Social in the next few hours because that's where we always get the news first about what the president may or may not be thinking. Right now, as I said, there's a fresh threat with him, you know, holding a big gun. What does that mean? Are these talks going to resume or not? That's anyone's guess at the moment. Uh, thank you very much once again.

[00:24:03]>> Thank you.

[00:24:04]>> And we will be back with much more on this developing story, particularly the impact on the Indian economy. That's next week. Join us again.