More Trouble for Social Security | Inflation is Surging

Added: 2026-05-13

[00:00:00]Let me start with what sounds like great news. The 2027 Cola could be one of the highest increases we've seen in years, and on the surface, it all sounds like a win, right? Bigger Social Security checks, bigger VA disability compensations, bigger military retirement checks, and if you're sitting there thinking, "Finally, something good." then hold on there for a second because you need to know this. A higher Cola is not actually a sign that the economy is doing well. It's almost always a sign that inflation is getting worse. And it's like the government handing you an umbrella after your house has already flooded. And for most retirees, a bigger check that still can't keep up with rising prices is not really a win at all. So, in this video, let me break down the latest 2027 Cola prediction, who gets it, and why a bigger Cola might honestly be worse news than you think. So, the 2027 Cola is not just pulled out of thin air, and it's not based on what inflation is doing right now. And a lot of people do not realize that. The official number is calculated using a very specific 3-month window. And that window is July, August, and September of 2026.

[00:01:12]The Social Security Administration takes the Consumer Price Index data from those 3 months, compare it to the same period from the previous year in 2025, and whatever that percentage difference is, that becomes your Cola. And that's it.

[00:01:26]That's the formula. The official announcement comes out in mid-October 2026 unless we have another government shutdown again. And whatever number they land on goes into effect starting with your January 2027 payment. And right now, we have two different estimates floating around for the 2027 Cola. And the Senior Citizens League is holding at 2.8% the same as 2026, but many independent analysts estimate up to 3.2% driven by what we just saw in the March 2026 inflation numbers. And if we land at 3.2%, that would be right up there with the largest adjustments we have seen in years outside of those record-breaking spikes in 2022 and 2023. Now, here's why those early estimates have been moving in the direction they have. Inflation surged again in March 2026, which is the biggest single-month jump we have seen since 2022. On top of that, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index rose 3.3% over the past 12 months as of March 2026. And the main culprits, everybody knows this, right? Unless you've been living under the rock. Gas prices, oil prices, and transportation costs all spiked hard and fast. And a big part of that was the disruption in global energy supply tied to the conflict in Iran, which basically closed off a critical shipping route for oil. And when oil gets more expensive, gas gets more expensive. When gas gets more expensive, it costs more to move goods across the country. And when it costs more to move goods, prices on almost everything else start climbing, too. And that ripple effect moved through the entire economy, and retirees felt it immediately at the pump and at the grocery store. And not just the retirees, but everyone. So, that March inflation report was not just a number on a page. It was a direct hit to your wallet, and it's exactly why the 2027 Cola estimate started climbing. So, who actually gets this Cola increase? As people on Social Security retirement benefits, Social Security disability benefits, military pension, VA disability compensation, CSRS pension, and FERS pension will get a diet Cola.

[00:03:41]And let me know in the comment section down below if you're a veteran. I did 20 years in the Air Force, so this is one of the data points I pay very close attention to. And here's where we get to the uncomfortable part. The reason the 2027 Cola estimate is going up is not that the economy is doing great. It's going up because inflation is getting worse again, and it did not just happen out of nowhere. And it started with oil prices, as I said earlier. Crude oil spiked sharply in early 2026, largely because of the conflict involving Iran, which disrupted a critical choke point for global oil shipping. And when oil supply tightens, prices move fast, and they did. That immediately fed into rising gasoline prices at the pump. And if you have filled up your tank lately, you already know exactly what I'm talking about. When gas prices go up, transportation costs follow right behind because everything else that gets moved around this country, whether it's food, medicine, furniture, or supplies, gets moved by trucks, trains, and planes that all run on fuel. So, those shipping costs went up, and businesses passed those costs straight down to consumers.

[00:04:51]And on top of all that, broader consumer prices have been climbing as well because they're tied to the geopolitical tensions that are rippling through global trade. And when there's instability in key parts of the world, supply chains get disrupted, and imports get more expensive, and inflation spreads across categories that have nothing to do with oil at all.

[00:05:13]Groceries, household goods, services, right? It all starts moving in the same direction at once. Even when retirees receive a bigger Cola, they very often still lose this battle against inflation. The adjustment sounds good in October when it is announced. It looks decent in January when it hits your account, but by February, March, and April in the following year, the reality sets back in because inflation does not wait for the Cola to catch up. So, what happens is that prices keep moving while your benefit stays fixed until the next adjustment a full year later. And the numbers back this up in a way that should make every retiree angry. Between 2010 and 2024, there were only five years out of 14 in which Social Security Colas actually outpaced inflation. And that means in nine of those 14 years, retirees received a Cola that did not fully cover what prices actually went up by. And the years that felt the most dangerous were often the most deceiving. Take 2022, for example.

[00:06:20]Retirees got a 5.9% Cola, and a lot of people thought that was a a huge deal.

[00:06:26]And it was the largest adjustment in decades at that point. But actual inflation that year came in at around 8% on average. So, even with that near-record Cola, retirees still lost ground by more than two full percentage points. And the check got bigger, but purchasing power still shrank. And that's not a win, right? That's just losing more slowly. The truth is, the Cola was never designed to make retirees whole. It was designed to soften the blow. And even at that, it does not always succeed. Now, take a look at this real-world example. But before I get into that, I want to let you know I'm taking one-on-one clients again. And I don't talk about this very much on my channel because the spots are very limited. And that's the private client program. And these spots are reopening very soon, and I only work with a limited number of people at a time. So, when they fill up, they fill up. And if you want to be first in line before they're gone again, the waitlist link is first in the description and on the pinned comment down below. So, with that said, let me get back to the example.

[00:07:33]Let's say your Social Security check goes from $2,000 to $2,064 per month because of a 3.2% Cola, that's an exact $64 per month, which sounds decent. But let's look at what is happening to your expenses at the same time. Groceries go up 20 bucks a month.

[00:07:51]Gas goes up 15 bucks. Medicare premiums rise by another 15 bucks a month, maybe.

[00:07:57]And as for insurance and utilities, they go up by another 25 bucks a month. And that's 75 bucks more per month going out the door while your check only went up $64. In other words, you get a bigger check, but you're still worse off. That right there is the cruel irony of the Cola. It sounds like a raise, but it often is not. And this goes beyond just your monthly budget. There's a bigger ripple effect here that most people don't even think about. When roughly 75 million Americans who receive Social Security or SSI get a Cola increase, that raise doesn't just apply for 1 year and disappears. It becomes permanent. It gets built into the base benefit going forward. So, if retirees get a 3.2% Cola in 2027, the government is not just paying more in 2027. It's paying more in 2028, 2029, and every single year after that. And that higher amount becomes the new normal. And when you multiply that across tens of millions of people, you're talking about a massive ongoing increase in spending. Now, stack that on top of where things already stand, the Social Security Trust Fund is projected to become insolvent around 2032 based on the latest estimates from the Congressional Budget Office. That's actually 1 year earlier than what they projected before. So, the timeline is moving in the wrong direction. And I encourage you to check out this video I did recently about the direction Social Security may be heading in the coming years. So, unless Congress steps in and does something, whether that's raising taxes or adjusting benefits somewhere else, the math just gets tighter. So, again, a higher Cola might feel like a win in the moment, but behind the scenes, it's adding more strain to a system that's already under a lot of pressure. And here's the double hit on the government. High inflation that drives up the Cola also tends to force interest rates higher, which means the government ends up paying more on its treasury debt at the same time it's paying out more in benefits. So, yes, a higher cola absolutely contributes to larger federal deficits, but the cola itself is not the villain here. It's a symptom of inflation, and inflation makes every part of the federal budget more expensive. The cola is just where you feel it most directly. Now, here's something most people do not realize.

[00:10:29]The Social Security cola is calculated using something called a CPIW, which stands for the Consumer Price Index for urban wage earners and clerical workers.

[00:10:39]But, the problem is that the index tracks the spending habits of working-age people who are still employed. It does not track what retirees actually spend money on, and these are health care, prescription drugs, insurance, housing, and utilities that the typical working-age person does not have. I mean, they have housing and utilities, but they don't spend as much, right? And those categories are not just more expensive for retirees. They're often the ones rising the fastest. Just look at what happened in 2026. The Medicare Part B premium jumped 9.7% going from $185 to $202.90 per month. The 2026 Social Security cola was only 2.8%. So, before you even spend a dollar on groceries or gas, a big chunk of your cola increase got absorbed by your Medicare premium going up. For a lot of retirees, the cola does not provide extra spending money. It just keeps them from losing ground as fast, and some months it does not even do that. So, when you hear [snorts] that the 2027 cola should be the highest in 5 years, don't just assume that's good news. A bigger cola usually means inflation is picking up again, like we have been seeing. And for a lot of retirees, that larger check still may not be enough to keep up with rising costs. The real focus should not be chasing the biggest cola possible. That's not something you can control anyway. And what you can control is how prepared you are for inflation. The goal is to build enough flexibility into your retirement plan so that your purchasing power does not slowly get eaten away. That means having savings, investments, emergency reserves, and multiple income sources, not just depending entirely on your pension or your Social Security check.

[00:12:32]Because if the last few years have taught us anything, it is that relying on one stream of income to keep up with inflation is a losing game. So, continue building your 401k, TSP, 403b, 457, Roth IRA, and HSA now, while you still can.

[00:12:50]And this has been another piece of the video, and I hope you got a lot out of it.