The analysis accurately captures the market's current absurdity where speculative narratives consistently trump fundamental earnings. It is a sobering look at a "backwards" financial landscape driven more by Fed rumors than actual value.
Install our extension to search inside any video instantly.
KEVIN WARSH BECOMES FED CHAIR, S&P HAS IT'S BEST STRETCH 8 WEEK STRETCH SINCE 2020 | MARKET CLOSEAdded:
All right. Hello everybody. Welcome back to another episode of the market close.
We are live on a Friday ending out the week. Thank you all for being here. It's not too bad of a Friday. Uh you got some stocks obviously that didn't have a massive day and you have a lot of stocks that quite frankly had a crazy day. It's been a bit spread out. Bitcoin unfortunately was not on the receiving end of the good side of that craziness.
We had a bunch of headlines. We're about to get into it. A lot of stuff to talk about. Bitcoin right there 75,000. She lost 76 unfortunately. Noia looks like we're going to get above 15 today.
That's up 9%. Reddit down 6% because Facebook has a competitor. Blackberry up 17%. That's a lot today. ARM which was up a lot more but still held above 300.
You had Apple that is 308 basically going to be closing at an all-time high which is incredible. Qualcomm was up 12%. Your Quantum name still massive day. AMD hit 475 in the morning closing above 460. Nvidia ugly day down 2%.
uh Micron, which was at 780 off of a headline that the Micron CEO said, "We think memory storage or memory um supply demand imbalances will last far beyond 2026." Although I feel like they said this five months ago and today the streets somehow started to take them seriously. Stock pump to 780. Now it's at 758 going red. It's been a relatively re weird day and I think there's some headlines to kind of break down why it's been so weird. The space names just a massive day. ASS up 9%, Red Wire up 13%.
Rock Lab was very close to hitting 140.
ended up not hitting it, but it looks like we're going to close above 132, which is very nice to see. Uh, and overall, again, it was one of those days where some of those names go up if you're green in in in a particular sector, and then some of those names like a Shopify in the software space just can't get any love. IGV was 2% up to start the day, still closing about 1.5%, but in your names inside of IGV did not get that love. I'm seeing this headline right now like you guys are saying it, Robin Hood COO is stepping down. Uh, so this is not Johan. Johan is the Robin Hood Crypto SVP and GM, the COO. I'm gonna be honest, I've never heard of this lady, uh, the chief operating officer for Robin Hood Crypto.
She's just never been out there publicly. So, this is, uh, news to me and, you know, I've never interacted with her, never talked to her. But her name is Tanya Denisova. Headline is leaving the firm after more than five years as the trading platform navigates a sharp decline in crypto revenue and workens to lessen its dependence on the digital asset market cycles. So, either this is legit, she's stepping down or she got fired.
I think we will find out uh soon enough.
Uh it's funny because Robinet is having their UK event next month in June, I believe. Yeah, in June in the UK for crypto. So, looks like they're consolidating some of their crypto team either from like, you know, Vlad legit firing her and bringing the team down to be smaller or her leaving. But yeah, obviously crypto hasn't been good for the entire year for Robin Hood. Micro Strategy, uh, Coinbase, all these different brokers that depend on crypto haven't done the best. And so, I mean, it makes sense that she's stepping down, but I really wonder, is she actually stepping down or is she getting fired?
Regardless, Hood stock is down today, obviously, because of BTC. 7344, that's down about 3.2% on the day. Coinbase as well, down about 4% as Bitcoin got hit.
Some of these names have been crazy today, guys. Dell, are you kidding me?
295. I mean, it was almost at 300. I know Trump said to buy at 260, but this thing has gone literally to the moon.
295, that's up 17%.
On the day, that's not a small amount for Adele. UNH is up 1.2%. I don't think there was any massive crypto headline that was read today. I continue to believe maybe some of the liquidity is leaving crypto for semis. And you know, that's a very basic reason, but I didn't see a sector specific reason for why crypto got hit. But if the money is going to space, if the money's obviously going into semis, the money is going into these neoclouds, which ended up not having the best day. Nebby is still above 200, but down 2.6%. I ran down 3%.
Coreweave, are we somewhat green on that? No. Coreweave down 1.9%. Not as bad as the others, but that is above 100, which is good given it was at 94 a couple of days ago. Yep. Credo pumped up today as well. I mean, you overall had a relatively green day. This felt like a Friday in January in the context of small cap beta momentum. You got quantum names moving, nuclear names moving. Dwave hit 31. Now it's up 10% on the day at 2847 likely going to close above 28. Nphase that was up 2.2%.
Pinterest was up 2%. Lunar is up 11%.
And QQ up seven. Just a massive day across the board on some of these smaller names. And uh some of the bigger names didn't get that same type of love.
Microsoft right here flat. Google was flat. Again, when those names fall and Apple goes up, the market is getting a little defensive. But then again, if the high beta small caps go up, is the market getting that defensive? So, it's one of those things that I think next week we'll get a better understanding of what's happening. If the S&P closes at the level that is closing at right now, S&P is at 745. This will be the best 8week stretch for the S&P 500, which is um going to be up 18% over the past eight weeks. That's the best stretch since uh 2020. best stretch since 2020, which has been obviously pretty massive and incredible to see the type of momentum that uh has happened for the for the S&P SEC delays plans to allow crypto versions of US socks. Is that true? That could be your reason.
Uh if they're delaying tokenization, it's ironic because two days ago we got a big headline on tokenization. Yeah, that's that's your headline. SEC delays plan for allowing crypto versions of US stocks. The Security and Exchange Commission is delingo plans to provide broad exemptions for US crypto firms to trade tokenized assets. Yep, that is your reason for why I would imagine you're seeing some red right here on crypto, which is weird because two days ago, tokenization looked like it was getting a lot quicker to happen. Kevin Worsh, he is officially sworn in as the new Fed chair.
uh this is what he had to say but ultimately we are now going to have Mr. Kevin Worsh deciding or trying to help decide what is going to be happening to monetary policy and the market quite frankly didn't even flinch today uh in terms of him getting approved >> as you demonstrate m Mr. President every day. Energy and purpose are how big obstacles are overcome.
Your greatest ambitions are for America, for what free people can achieve when they have the chance.
And while I'm not naive about the challenges we face, I believe, Mr. President, these years can bring unmatched prosperity that will raise living standards for Americans from all walks of life.
My goal now is to create an environment in which the best people can do their life's best work and to face every challenge in the spirit of common purpose and devotion to the national interest in a word to excellence.
These duties are now mine, Mr. President, because of the trust you have placed in me. I accept them with gratitude and we'll strive every day to serve our fellow citizens well.
And in final, I'll just say I'm going to look around and try to hold on to this special moment.
But after we leave this stage, the real work begins. So, let's begin that work.
It's an honor. Thank you again, Mr. President. What do people think, man? Do we like him? Can we even have an opinion on him? This guy is not a Keynesian economist. He's more on the supply side versus the versus the demand side. So obviously he's going to be trying to reform the Fed from that ideological perspective. He's been pretty honest about that. Reddit just getting destroyed today, dude. On that Facebook competitor down 5%. Rocket Lab looks like we're going to get that close above 136.
Um, but I'm going to be very curious to kind of see how the street ultimately thinks about him as we get into uh as we get into him being a new Fed chair.
We need more supply. That is very true.
We probably need more about that. Will he shut the effing door? That is also a good question. Uh, put in the chat what trades you did today. If you took any trades, you sold anything. Did any puts, calls, trimmed, anything like that? I did three trades today. Uh, all day trades. One was on Nphase, one was on BlackBerry.
Um, and then the other one was on, if I can remember, I'm going to pull up the trading account. All these are day trades. Buy low, sell high.
Uh, very simple trades to try to test my TT. Lunar. The other one was Lunar.
Lunar, Blackberry, Nphase.
Lunar, BlackBerry, Nphase. Zen says, "I sold Nvidia." Dude, this one got hit today.
It's It's I I It's hard to stomach it getting hit after earnings, but nonetheless, it got hit after earnings.
Bought more service now. Andy, I love how you keep saying service CRN. They should change it to service currently right now. And you're gonna see a lot more momentum there.
Matt says, "Y'all keep track of too many companies. I'm not smart enough for that." Yeah. Yeah, I mean when you have Rocket Lab, you don't need that many other companies. Um, may teach us how to day trade. Dude, I'm trying to learn how to day trade before I think I can teach anyone on how to date trade. All three of those were successful trades. We made $213 on Blackberry, $150 on Lunar. And then I lost $290 on Nphase because the limit order didn't go through. And I got so pissed because I waited 15 minutes because I was red for it to go green. It ended up really green. And then I clicked the wrong button. And so I revenge traded it back to make $185. So technically it was like a $650 trade, but I got so pissed. I was like, "Oh my goodness, this filled me seven cents below my freaking cost basis." And I waited 15 minutes to for that to not happen. So those three were successful today. But again, still learning how to how to do this at a at a better level.
Um should have held Blackberry though.
Bought this thing at like 760. Ended up going to 789. Look at that. 18% on the day as that one was more green. Pattern day trading rule is going to be ending June 4th. June 4th I believe it will be ending. Micron down 1.3%. Cadence up four. OSS massive day as well. 7.93%.
That is green. I do not use Robin Hood.
I use Tasty Trade for that. Robin Hood does not connect to Trading View. So I think if you're going to somewhat take trading professionally, you kind of got to use Trading View or some of the other platforms. But yeah, do not use Robin Hood for that. Pounder 136.94 Adobe 244 service now did we get 107 102 that was almost at 107 today ended up slightly down from those levels again a lot of these small caps had a crazy bid I know it sucks to see Nvidia Microsoft Meta Google not really participating in this Apple did though today which again is confusing the other stocks in the Max 7 not participating with Apple is just a little weird and then you see the small caps going crazy But that's how the market interpreted today. The top 20 stocks in the options market today. We got three minutes left until the market closes. Nvidia, Tesla, Apple, Nokia, and Micron. Goodness gracious, Nokia's ending up in the top 10 every day. So is Micron now. Ford in the top 10. Regetti rounding out the top 10. Then you got AMD and Intel. Then you got D-Wave, 477,000 contracts right there. Palunteer, AS, SMCI, Meta, Qualcomm, SoFi, Micro Strategy, Google. Those are your top 20.
In Nvidia and Tesla being the number one and two in the option markets that have been traded uh today.
Okay, that's what we got. We will talk more about different headlines. We'll have Steve join us in a little bit. Uh we do have a nice episode of Basic Points launch for everybody at 5:00 PM.
So, we'll launch that in an hour.
Hopefully people enjoy.
But Rock Lab was not in the top 20 for options contracts, but it's definitely been seeing a lot of option flow.
Uh we will cover some of these other headlines as we end the day. Hopefully people have been enjoying Cactus Jack.
Got a lot of good feedback on it. Seems like people are enjoying it. I've gotten tons of messages of people just saying, "Dude, this is so helpful. It's better than reading X. Keeps me updated." So again, if you want to sign up for it, there it is right there. It's totally free to sign up. You can pay $5 a month if you want to support. If not, that is totally fine. And yeah, seems like seems like people are enjoying it. So, it should be fun. All right, 30 seconds. We do not have a market open on Monday, which means we do not have futures on Sunday, which means we will all have to find purpose in our lives over the next 72 hours without stons guiding that purpose. And honestly, it's been a long six months, five months. We should uh we should probably go touch some grass, even though we'll probably end up doing research over the weekend on on these stocks, but we should touch a little bit of grass. There you go. Friday, May 22nd, the S&P 500 closes at 7:45.
The stock market is now closed.
We got through the week.
We got through the week. My goodness. We got through the week. Laura says, "I don't know what I'm going to do on Monday. Sit home and cry." Someone else says, "I'm already waiting for Tuesday."
Dude, we are such junkies. Literally such junkies.
But nonetheless, that's why we're here. S&P 74570 ending up about half a percent on the day.
Apple, massive day, $4.54 trillion dollar company service now 102 as that was slightly green. You got Taci, not bad. 426. It was below 400 a couple days ago. So nice to see that rebound. Rocket Lab, I think this is the highest close ever, right? Yeah. And this is after the freaking three billion dilution. the street and this is why I think that SpaceX IPO is going to be monumental for Rocket Lab to dilute which is you know the company by basically 4% and still for the street to be like okay cool three billion that's fine just goes to show how much demand there are for these shares and you know that's probably going to be the same with uh with SpaceX 215 33 on Nvidia that was down 2% once again I think this kind of thesis of rotating out the big names going into smaller names you might be seeing that happen right now with Nvidia I I really can't find another reason why it's red today there was no headlines on it growth obviously was incredible on earnings. Seems like we just had some of that rotation. Google 382 that was down about 1.2%. Microsoft down about half a% 418. Credo, this was at 21841, that was up 12.9%. Coreweave basically down 2%.
Dell was up 16% on the day. Absolutely incredible. Nokia 1546. I'm happy we got the $15 close. That was the most important thing. Up about 9% on the day and hopefully that can continue. You know, Jensen, we talked about this yesterday. Jensen mentioned AI ran which is a big part of Nvidia's or um not Nvidia Nokia's AI business when it comes to networking uh on the earnings call.
So uh I think that also maybe was a signal to the street that hey this stuff is going to be really relevant. And then once again why wouldn't they buy Nvidia?
Well Nvidia's market cap is too big. I mean that's a kind of a dumb reason but nonetheless that might be why they're rotating into some of these other names.
AS 10% that was green once again.
Corning that was up about 1%. Lmentum that was down about 1.82% but this thing was almost below 800 two days ago. So nice to see that rebound. Data dog basically at all time highs right there 222. AMD massive move in the morning.
Got hit a little bit towards the day but still 481 to 460 up 4%.
Which was incredible.
Uh you had Qualcomm massive day as well.
That was green 238. Uh Keel 481 that was up 3.61%.
I ran and the rest of the the Neoclouds were down. Not by a lot but they were down. And the Q's I think we did 720 on the close, 717 on the close, which is where we at. Is the Dow at alltime highs? I think it is.
Yes, it's up 5% this year. This is why Trump tweeted record highs in the morning officially 50,579 on Mr. Dow Jones. There is the link right there for everyone asking for cactus. I'll pin this message. Thanks Mr. I'm beneficial for that.
People can sign up there.
All right, folks. Those are our main uh sources of price action here. Were there any crazy stories that I wanted to cover? Nothing. Oh, yeah. Well, two things real quick and then we'll get Steve on the show. Number one, the odds of America having a recession are down to a new low as per kalshi of 16.2% this year. The odds were 40% earlier in the year during the Iran crisis. So with the 10ear spiking up, oil spiking up, where did oil close today? Oil 9659, so at least it's below 100. Uh I think even with high oil and a high 10 year, 10 year down below 4.6, the market once again kind of just doesn't care. And you're seeing those recession spikes, recession odds spike way down, which is obviously bullish because if there's no recession, you know, there's a better chance for uh stocks to continue going up. Trump is live right now.
Okay, he is live. This dude I thought uh well he's campaigning somewhere. I I guess he did the Kevin War ceremony three hours ago and got on a flight. He just talked about the Dow Jones hitting 50K.
So let's pull that up.
Uh does not wait one second to make sure people know he's responsible for the stock market.
>> Tremendous amounts of taxes in my first term. We had the greatest most successful economy in history. And by the way, we're blowing it away in this term. So today, today we just an amazing thing happened. They said it couldn't happen for four years.
An amazing thing. The Dow Jones hit 50,72 and the S&P is way over 7,000. So these were two things that said they said he won't be able to do when I first got elected. They said he won't be able to do that. There's no way he's going to be able to do that in his first term, which is my first term of numerous terms. By the way, you know, we're a three-term president. We just don't want the results. We don't want We want tremendous amounts of All right, there you go. Trump campaigning. Uh I don't know exactly where he is right now, but he is indeed campaigning. Iran's tansim news agency.
Progress has been made on some issues, but no agreement will be reached until old disputed ma matters are resolved.
Very similar to some of the headlines we saw this morning on the Iran deal.
Hopefully getting closer. And um if it does get closer and oil goes down, then with the earnings growth we have, this party has a chance to continue. Ladies and gentlemen, on a Friday afternoon, there is no need to fear because once again, the milkman is here.
Are you ready?
Are you ready for next Thursday?
>> What's next Thursday?
>> Oh, I don't think you saw the logo. I made. Did you >> next Thursday? No, I didn't.
>> I shouldn't even I shouldn't even show you. I should just let it be a surprise for Thursday when we tape.
>> I should just let it be a surprise.
>> Your your channel members know about this. I don't know about this.
>> Well, you know, they know about it because >> Look at this. Steve's getting closer to you guys than he is to me. He's telling you [ __ ] before he even tells me. Well, you know, I may have made a logo last night while we were watching or listening to the uh whatchamacallit the uh GTA 6 take two earnings >> for what?
>> Don't wor Don't worry about it.
>> You worry about it.
>> Oh, now I'm curious. Now we got to see what's going on here.
>> All right, so here we go. admit.
>> Okay, >> on Thursday we're going to make these.
See, I was going to do it and not tell you, but I might as well tell you because everybody else knows. But we're we're going to have some uh cookie teenies.
Cookieinis is What is this, dude? Oh my goodness.
You're going to make us drink milk and cookies on the next podcast.
>> Listen to me.
>> This is how we're going to celebrate the past two episodes.
>> Dude, I don't like milk.
>> What do you mean you don't like milk?
>> I don't like milk. It's disgusting.
>> Oh my god. Then you don't have to drink it. I'll have a cookie. Tammy, >> I'll drink some water. If you could bring me some water, that'd be nice.
Water.
>> Ice cold water with something sweet is is great. No. Ice cold milk with cookies is amazing.
>> Oh, no, dude.
What do all you guys think? See, that's what I'm talking about. That's what they're saying. That looks like fire.
That's right. It does look fire.
>> You made a literal logo for this. This is incred. We need to ban AI, bro.
You're having way too much fun with this [ __ ] >> No, but this is gonna be the logo of our bar in GTA 6.
>> What?
>> Yeah. You know, I already decided that when we play GTA 6 and you don't have any viewers because we have thousands of people lining up the server on GTA 6 and we all take a week off from work and just rock out on GTA. The bar that I buy, this will be the logo.
>> Dude, you know, when GTA 6 comes out, I think you and Matt and the video game guys will have a lot of content to give a lot of people. I will literally be left with the five people that care about stocks.
>> You know that they actually said on the earnings call last night that they're going to make GTA 6 incredibly friendly for content creators.
>> That's because the last time it came out, GTA V, we didn't have streaming.
>> Yeah, they they want they want content creators for this.
>> No, >> sick days are going to go through the roof.
>> No, it will. It will. I think people there will be a big market for people watching this stuff.
>> Oh, it's gonna be crazy.
>> I'm probably going to tune into some streams just because I'm curious how people play this game, but uh probably won't be playing it myself. So, at 5:00 pm, we will be launching the pod and I think you guys will enjoy it. We'll play a clip of it that we're going to post on X before um or right when the pod launches and then you guys can go watch it yourself. But think you guys will enjoy it. Steve, before I get into your thoughts around the market, just in general, quick thoughts on uh how the pod went yesterday and uh what was your experience like?
>> You know, I listened to it last night.
I'm sure you woke up to the text messages because it was a threeperson text chain.
We're not going to say who the third person was because that'll give it away.
But, uh how am I going to say this without being disrespectful?
Let me think.
I'm not gonna I'm going to frame it like this. I promise everybody is going to go crazy when you listen to this because it is so raw and it is so good.
And >> I think I think I think what Steve is trying to say is it was a very authentic conversation with a CEO.
>> It was so raw. You're I I don't think you will >> Stop using the word raw, bro. You do you not know this chat by now? Do you not know your chapter?
>> Just >> what?
>> Authentic is better than raw because >> No, no, no, no.
>> It is.
This is not what you're going to expect from this person. Okay. This person gets open. All right.
Raw. Open. You just just know over the coming days when people start spamming Steve likes and raw and you know just this is >> these are this is the this is a different type of chat. Okay know this by now.
>> Don't say the company name but what did you say to me when the person walked out of the room?
>> I said he made it he made me want to buy more.
>> Exactly.
>> Look, I think it's it's one of those episodes. This is the first time he's ever sat down with two retail investors in person. Um, I think he was very passionate about his company. He was passionate about the stock performance.
And also, the dude knew his numbers, bro. He knew his freaking numbers. Like, the way he was getting into the technicalities of explaining this number versus that number. I'm like, my goodness, he wasn't even looking at his notes. He was just spitting off the dome. And I was like, man, it was impressive. Um, and I think people will enjoy. So, should be a good one. It'll be fun for people to listen to.
Having said that, stocks S&P up 18% over the past eight weeks, basically at all-time highs, best stretch stretch since 2020. Uh, you got Nvidia that's not really participating today. Apple's at all-time highs. You got a lot of these small caps going green. You got the Rocket Labs of the world, the ASS's, the Space names up.
SpaceX is getting ready to go public in a month. I mean, what is your overall take of this market environment? Are you scared, nervous, excited? Is it a little weird or do you think the war is going to end, oil's going to go down and the markets will keep going up?
>> Why would I be scared?
>> Well, I'm just asking if you're nervous that oil's up, tenure up, a lot of valuations. I mean, I love ARM, but it's now trading at a higher price of sales than Palunteer, you know, like I don't know.
>> Is my hand trembling?
>> Anyway, what are your thoughts on how you're thinking of this market right now? admit I don't >> you say this when the market's green the market goes red that confidence can >> No have I wavered from S&P 8000 >> no but look a week ago on our pod we did say we were feeling some euphoria >> you mean that there are triple levered funds and people that are dejening into [ __ ] yeah it's stupid there's no question about that but that one thing has nothing to do with the other those companies could go to zero it doesn't matter for the market period they're not part of the S&P so when I'm talking about the market. I feel really good because you know what?
I do think we're getting rate cuts this year. I think CME Group is wrong. If you go to CME Group and you go click on December and you look at where they are today versus a month ago, it's polar opposites. And you know what? In a month from now, when this war in Iran is over and the straight is open and 20% more crude comes online, you're going to have the exact opposite of what it's showing today.
>> Yeah. And we saw how quickly oil can go from 104 to 89. It's going to go under 80 within three or four weeks of or sooner once a deal gets signed and ships actually are really passing through.
It's just a matter of it opening up because then there's nowhere to hide.
>> Well, here's what I I also really agree with you on this. I think uh Trump definitely wants this thing to be done by July 4th. I think you've been dead right on that theory. Uh I think oil, even though we've had a lot of issues with refineries and supply, I do think the market's going to price it in. Maybe not to 70, but it's probably going to go down below 90 if uh he announces the war's over. We've been getting a we've been getting a lot more realistic updates about how the negotiations will go. Uh and then on top of that, Nvidia is projecting that capex going to be a trillion next year and yeah, it'll slow down after that, but it it it is not stopping anytime soon. And maybe that's the story. Maybe that is the story for how this market continues going green.
I guess the broader question here is even outside of rate cuts. Uh does the leverage and euphoria in a variety of different sectors or names end up leading to the downfall of the market and and and let's just say it does.
Let's take the bare case and say it does. That dip now that the AI story has become so obvious. Why am I saying it's so obvious? Not because people have just woke up to it, but because the earnings have made it really obvious that like a Microsoft can't stop spending on capex because they have way too much cloud demand. So if they do, that cloud demand is going to go to Google and then Google's just going to spend on C. Like it's become so obvious that that's going to keep going that any dip of substantial magnitude probably gets bought. I mean 3% dips are getting bought. So why wouldn't 10 15% dips get bought? Especially if it's not a big reason for the dip to even happen in the first place.
So, I I think that we're in a situation where there the market is backwards. You have companies that are being undervalued for stupid reasons that have tremendous cash flows and are still growing. I mean, you look at Nvidia, Nvidia should be 275 today, period.
Agree.
>> But it's not.
>> Yeah.
>> Um, if you actually I actually was showing it on my stream. I still have it open. Let me share this. These are all the current EPS numbers.
Where where did Nvidia close today? 216.
>> Nvidia close today at 21533.
>> It's trading at 13.88 times. 2028 forward. If you put this at 350, trades at 22 and a half times forward.
Okay. Now, I'm not saying it should be 350, but keep in mind it has expected 74% EPS growth over the next two years.
So, if we throw 275 out here, it's trading at 21 basically 22 times next year and under 20 times 2028.
It's so inexpensive.
>> Can you can you put Met at 800?
>> Yeah.
Wouldn't it be so cool if we can control stocks like this, guys? We just change the price like that. So 2027 it would trade at 23 times at 800 at a,028 times.
Dude, Meta's cheap.
>> Yeah. And Meta's got 22% EPS growth over the next two years.
>> Meta's got a PR issue right now, but they're cheap.
>> Huge PR issue. But look, the the greatest companies in the market, excluding Tesla, are cheap. I would even say Apple is cheap because nobody is replicating what Apple built. You're not replicating a two billion install base.
Alphabet is the biggest pure play AI company we've ever seen. Amazon the greatest logistical company and cloud service company. This is just when these companies are trading for this low of valuation and then you have all these little [ __ ] companies going up so much every other day and they don't even make money. The market's backwards. It's a It's fueled specular.
And honestly, I almost want a 30% crash.
I almost want it. Let a 30% crash happen. Let all the liquidity get sucked out of everybody on margin and these triple leverage funds and let's go back to what actually math maths and good companies actually do well.
>> But but but to to push back against that like these quantum stocks versus Meta, do I think Meta should have a higher multiple? Yes. I don't think the quantum stocks are taking liquidity away from Meta entirely, but they have a way better narrative than Meta. A way better narrative, especially when Trump has given them $100 million each. So, like I understand why there's people piling into it. I mean, Trump piled into Intel and a lot of us said Intel was [ __ ] and look at Intel now, right?
>> Yeah. I'm not necessarily talking about them. I mean, look, I'm gonna I'm gonna pick on Rocket Lab again, okay? What did they do today? Oh, they signed a $90 million deal with the Space Force. Okay, 90 million and the company went up 8.2%.
>> Wait, how many billions is that? Hold on. 8 point Rocket Lab. Every dollar for Rocket Lab is uh 578 million. They went up four billion basically >> on a 90 million.
>> I give you 90 million. You give me four billion. I you know, happy shareholders.
I'm just saying this is a company that is not expected to generate a profit until 2028.
>> Bro, why do you care about profit so much?
>> Oh, why would we care about profits? I don't know.
>> Like, there's other things besides making a profit in life, you know?
>> Sure. It's just like Silicon Valley, right? No revenue. Pre-revenue. Keep them guessing. Pre-revenue.
>> Yeah. But look, look, in all seriousness, the quality of company Rocket Club has plus the SpaceX IPO.
Like look, I'm not buying the stock at 135, but for a lot of us in the chat, we don't need to buy it at 135. We bought this [ __ ] way below 135, and now you just sit there.
>> And Rocket Lab can go to 250 because if Space X holds a two trillion valuation, I think Rocket Lab should trade at a tenth of the m tenth of the value as a proxy.
But >> Rocket Labed 6% by the way for those that are asking to shortflow. But for SpaceX to IPO where it's IPOing, come on, it's [ __ ] >> I think so. I was telling the chat in the morning, uh, there was a guy on Twitter yesterday who manages $300 million of assets on Schwab accounts and he requested for SpaceX shares and Schwab was basically like, "Sorry, man.
We can't help you out." $300 million is not a small amount of money for a Schwab client. So, I think the SpaceX IPO, yeah, I don't agree with the valuation either, but I think that thing is going to be a lot more than two trillion when you think about the demand >> from the demand side, people are going to roll into it. No question. It doesn't even do 20 billion in revenue and it wants a $2 trillion. Like, think about this. Let's say they 5x the revenue over the next five years. Okay?
That would be incredible if they do that. They still don't generate more revenue than the companies that are less than the two trillion mark cap today.
With that, >> you just can't value SpaceX like that.
>> Why? We can't value it off of profits and growth.
>> Well, you you could, but and I'm not saying that's a reason to buy it. I'm just saying uh Tesla is not valued in the way that traditional companies are valued because there's a really >> valuation doesn't make sense.
>> It it doesn't have to make sense.
>> I get it. I mean a lot of valuations don't have to make sense. But I get your point. I just I just think the liquidity that is getting ready to go into SpaceX means that you know space becomes a theme outside of I mean the only two themes that are really working right now at scale are space and semis. It's not software not fintech quantum literally in the past two days because of the investment by the government. It's space and semis.
Financial's not working. industrials now. I guess energy, some of these smaller energy plays are getting a little bit of a bid. Um, but those are your two big big themes. Maybe a little bit of defense. Some of the drones name starting to get some momentum, but as a result of that, you know, the money wants to go to space. So, the money's going to space.
>> Yeah. I mean, listen, it the market doesn't make sense right now. There's a lot of things that are overvalued.
There's a lot of things that are undervalued. The fact that Nvidia is selling off today, yet the other other things they're moving, this was the greatest quarter anybody's ever seen.
This was, let me say that again. This was the greatest quarter anybody's ever seen. and they just posted 90% year-over-year growth for Q2 for a company that is generating more free cash flow, more net income, and more revenue than 99% of the companies in the market. So, I agree with you. Uh Chris was on the show yesterday. I think a lot of people also tended to understand his argument, which is just it's a big company. the next incremental buyer. You know, if you're lucky, you're going to get 250 by the end of the year. That's not a big move from here. Whereas, there's a lot of other names that can move that much in a lot shorter of a time period.
>> Opportunity cost is real. And I'm not saying that there aren't better opportunities. And I'm not saying that there aren't other companies that deserve to go higher. And I think the biggest problem with Nvidia is the size.
Because is the market really going to let it get to be 12, 13, 14% of the S&P?
I think that's a huge problem. But when you look at the profitability this company, I mean, really think about it. You I don't think you got a chance to read my article, did you?
>> I did not >> on seeking out.
>> No, I did not. I did not today.
>> So, I built a full model. I mean, I can bring the model up right now for you.
This company just increased the dividend by 2400%.
They just became the biggest dividend growth compounder. They're not Thank you. They are not increasing the dividend by that much just to stop the growth. They just showed and basically what I did with this model, I basically went off of their CFO saying that they're going to return 50% of free cash flow to all of the shareholders every year. And I basically did the Q1, what that turns into for a run rate for this year, what the street estimate is, and then all the following four years for a five-year look. And at the same margin that we're currently at, cumulative, they'll generate $3 trillion in revenue, 1.8 trillion in free cash flow. That would be $96 billion in capital return to shareholders. And under my model of increasing the dividend for the next four years by 50% a year, that gives you 302 billion in cumulative dividends, 603 billion in buybacks, which buys back roughly 8.3% of the company. And you turn the dividend from a dollar this year now into $56.
Some people have a yield on cost of 5%.
You and I will.
Tanner probably have a yield on cost of 20%.
>> Do you do you think that the dividend funds would actually buy Nvidia for this reason?
>> Absolutely. Absolutely. All of them own Apple and Microsoft. Microsoft's grown the dividend for what, 17 years? Apple 13 years. They absolutely will.
Especially when Nvidia becomes an incredible dividend growth compounder.
>> Yeah, look, I agree. There's obviously there's no reason to get bearish invidia. It's just >> real quick. One sec. the the it's not about the dividend. It's not about the dividend growth. Everybody that's saying that is missing the point. And that's why I really wish everybody would read this article. The biggest part about this, they're not doing this without feeling super confident about how much profitability they're going to generate over the next 5 years. The last thing they're doing is increasing the dividend and then not going into dividend growth mode after this huge increase. This is showing that they have so much visualization into the amount of orders that they have and the profitability that they're going to do that they are now saying in addition to the buybacks, we're not just going to take an opportunistic approach to buybacks. We're going to fortify the capital allocation with a strong dividend program and still have another 50% left over for M&A activity.
>> So why is the stock down?
>> It's the only thing that makes sense right now for the stock being down is people are scared of it representing more of the S&P. There is no other reason for it to be down. What changed since two days ago or a week ago other than Nvidia blowing out the numbers and saying they're doing 90% growth? This stock should be through the roof.
It is pretty incredible, dude. Almost seven quarters in a row now of nothing after the earnings and eventually it'll make its move. But I mean, it's incredible for the street to just I mean this was at 240 on May 13th and now it's just like nope, we don't like it. which again the the the the um the rotation of Apple too. So what are your thoughts on that? Is it is it kind of defensive that the market went into Apple today because there wasn't like an offensive reason to get excited about Apple and usually when the market rotates to Apple I think it feels like or they feel like you know we need to go into safety or do you think the market's thinking Apple's actually a growth play now?
>> Well Apple is a growth play. They're just not a super growth play. They have a huge install base. You're in the age of AI. Nobody really knows what that means for Apple. But once again, you're as much as I joke that you're their best customer, there's people that buy a lot more stuff than you. And you find yourself at the Apple store every month or every quarter.
I mean, Apple's just that company.
They're one of the best that what are the biggest brands? Like, if you really think about just brands, right?
CocaCola, Apple, Nike, Disney.
It's a timeless brand. I just I don't know.
You know, a lot of those stocks like Starbucks, Lulu, they're they're all getting hit hard this year. Um those maybe Lulu is not a timeless brand, but Lulu down 40% this year. Obviously, Starbucks and Nike have gotten hit. Um, so it's I mean to your point, yeah, the brand is incredible, but there's got to be an AI thesis that I think the street likes about Apple that eventually >> the AI thesis are very simple. They didn't spend all the money on it.
They're going to contract with whoever can give them the best thing that they can license and they're going to be able to add it into services and upcharge and create a new tier of products the way Alphabet is. But once again, just like the I can't even say it like that. Um, let me say it like this.
I think that Apple will be lacking Google in that respect because Google actually owns the underlying infrastructure and they can deploy and build at their speed. Whereas Apple will always be playing second fiddle and have to get approval. And they're Apple, so they'll get the approval. But it's not like they can just walk into a room and say build this.
>> So the IMAX, have you heard about the IMAX acquisition?
>> No.
>> Or IMAX getting ready to sell themselves. So this is a $3 billion company. It was up 15% today. Who do we think buys IMAX?
>> The movie theater company.
>> Yeah. Yeah.
>> Netflix.
>> Is it going to be Netflix?
>> Well, it's certainly not AMC.
>> It can't be AMC. I wonder three billion is nothing for Apple.
>> I mean Amazon, Warner Brothers, Discovery.
I mean, not not Warner Brothers, I'm sorry, Paramont, but I doubt it.
>> Put it Put in the chat if you've watched a movie in IMAX. I don't think I ever have.
>> Oh, it's incredible.
>> I know I knew the new the new Michael Jackson movies in IMAX, and I haven't seen it, but I've never uh you know, the first movie I saw in IMAX was >> what year? Before you say, >> I'll tell you exactly what year. Hold on.
>> Yeah, tell us what year. Market cap's three billion on this.
>> Yeah, I feel like Netflix. They would be in contention here.
>> Is it 2008?
>> No, it was um >> 2006.
>> I'm Oh, no. I have no idea. I have no idea. I was gonna say Dark Knight of 2008.
>> 2006. Everybody, come on.
It's a classic.
>> Superman Returns.
>> It was an Avatar.
>> What?
>> When I say it, everybody's gonna go nuts.
>> The Departed came out in 2006, but that's not an IMAX, right?
>> The first Avatar was in 2009.
That was an IMAX.
>> All right. I'm just going to say it because nobody's getting it.
>> What is it?
>> 300.
It's classic.
>> You've never seen 300?
>> I have, bro. Isn't that the guy who goes, "Are you not entertained?"
>> Leonitis, baby.
>> Told you. Of course.
>> This is Sparta.
Amazing.
>> So, that was my first IMAX experience.
And then I may have was I may have went to an IMAX to see uh one of the James Bond movies during work hours one day. Maybe. I don't know. May have took a long lunch.
>> Wait, that's Gladiator.
>> You're not entertained as Gladiator.
This is Sparta is the >> You didn't correct me just now. You >> I was waiting for the chat to do it.
>> I thought Oh [ __ ] >> dude. This guy looks like the guy in the meme that everyone tweets on Twitter.
>> They don't look anything alike.
>> Yes, he Oh, >> Russell Crow >> does not look like >> Gerard Butler.
>> Hold on. Look, Twitter.
>> You're telling me. Okay. Yeah, they don't.
>> They do not look anything alike. One is Russell Crowe, the other is Gerard Butler. They look nothing alike.
>> Okay. Yeah, you're right. My bad. My bad.
They kind of do though from like if you're looking from a different angle.
>> And by the way, 300 is incredible.
Incredible.
>> Okay, so I would imagine that's Netflix.
>> Captain Sleepy Time, you piped down over there.
>> Is Tanner in the chat? Thank you, Tanner. I appreciate you having my back.
>> Captain Sleepy Time, your sleep score must have been under 80. Go back to bed.
Tanner's got to give us the rundown on what he experienced at Google. Oh, you were can we talk about that? Because you were watching this thing. Yeah. And a little birdie came into my DMs and said, "Do you know Steve just said he's gonna leave Apple?" And I'm like, "Steve just goes with the wind." Okay. One day he's like this, one day he's like that, Sundar says something good. He loves him. So like you just you're so easily influenced. So please tell me why you're leaving the iPhone for Google. Please.
>> I got to tell you, I I'm getting very interested in the Android ecosystem for the phone. Really? After all these years, one hour of streaming in the IO event is making you very interested.
That's incred. Wow. Sundar must be the greatest salesman I've seen I've ever heard of in my life.
>> You know, I feel like it's time to expand my wings and go to the dark side.
>> Give me the pitch. Why Why are you leaving Apple? Give me the pitch.
>> Listen, Apple is like the Alliance.
Android's like the Horde. Android's like the Sith.
And iOS is like the Jedi. I'm more of a horde Sith guy.
>> I don't know what the hell you said, but I will bet a million dollars Steve does not switch to an android one.
>> Everybody in your chat knows what's going on.
>> I I don't know. You're talking about swords and I don't know what you're saying.
>> No. Alliance and Horde, Jedi and Sith, >> Star Wars. Is that >> good and evil?
>> The point is he's not >> knows what's up. I know you're not switching, bro. You You don't like being complicated with stuff like Apple is so easy for you to use like it is for everybody. You're not going to switch because Gemini, order me a coffee. Like, that is not the reason why you're going to switch to >> Why?
>> Because I don't think that's a >> Dude, I need a personal assistant.
>> I think when Siri comes out and lets you do that in >> Siri's been alive since 2011 and sucks.
>> Look, if they don't do it this this year, we got an issue. But I think if this year they give >> We've had an issue for a while with Siri. No, I agree. I'm I'll be the first to say I I hate Siri, but um >> Oh my god, I can't believe how many Wowheads there are in your chat.
Can you run a poll? Can you do me a favor? Can you run a poll and just say, "Did you play WoW?"
>> I feel like I feel like it's gonna be at least 30% of people.
>> I mean, if that's the truth, I may have to see if everybody wants to start playing and start our own guild.
>> Yeah, you should start a gaming channel.
If you played WoW, I mean >> I may have to >> you and Matt should start a gaming channel which is game. Dude, people love W. See, like people love obviously having someone who they like to hear a commentary from. But then when you're playing a game, it's like actual live action, you know?
>> Oh my god, am I going to do this no sleep and just freaking get after it?
This will be the end of my marriage.
>> Imagine you and Matt talking stocks while you're playing games. Like, dude, >> this is going to be the end of my marriage if I start playing video games again. You know, I I've literally stared at Twitch streamers talking about random stuff, playing chess. Like, >> it is it is it is content that people enjoy. Okay, let me play this clip right here. Then I want to talk about something else. Here's uh Trump on Tesla today.
>> Down a little bit. Friends of mine tell me the story's down a little bit.
Getting close. And you're looking, what about a charging station? You know, this is an hour before it runs out. Where's it charging? And then you see it. It's a sign and it says charging station, an arrow pointing to the right, 92 miles and you limp in if you make it at all.
No, we love electric cars. I have to say that because of Elon, but I love electric cars. They're lovely, lovely vehicles, but I said I don't want not everybody wants to have an electric car.
And I ended that whole nonsense. By 2030, you're going to all have electric cars? I don't think so. How about California? They have electric cars.
They can't they don't have enough electricity to turn on your air conditioners. They have they have brownouts and now everybody's going to have an electric car.
That's >> okay. That's kind of funny. That's That's kind of >> Oh my god. If anything, he is a He's hilarious.
>> Um so that's Trump on Elon. And then one more. This is Trump on promising to uh get interest rates down soon.
>> Down with the energy. Do you watch what's going to happen? I had a rotten head of the Fed and now I have a great head of the Fed today.
Kevin Walsh.
Kevin was just sworn in today. He's great. He's going to be great. And now Congress is on the cusp of passing the most important piece of housing legislation in a generation. But to be honest with you, housing is all about interest rates. I know more about housing than anybody in history. No president's ever. I built a lot of housing and they can pass all the bills they want. It's about interest rates.
You get the interest rates down, everybody's going to be very, very happy. We're going to get it down very quickly.
>> So, I didn't watch the ceremony. I think you did. What was the takeaway you had from from Kevin W today?
>> I mean, I don't know that you really could have gotten anything you didn't already know.
I mean, what what's he going to say? You know what I mean? He We knew everything he was going to say. I'm excited until we see something happen that I don't like. I think Worsh is going to go in there and I think he has a better understanding of the economy than a lot of these people. Some people don't like the fact that he's a billionaire.
>> He's not a billionaire. He's he's worth 150 to 200 million. He's not a billionaire. His wife is a billionaire.
>> So, I guess by proxy, but he himself is not worth a billion dollars.
>> Really?
>> Yeah. He's the richest Fed ever in history. But >> I got news for you.
He's married to an ay that's not his personal net worth as fed chair is not a billion. It's 150 million.
>> He's a billionaire.
>> He's not a billionaire. His wife is a billionaire. He is not a billionaire.
That is not >> part of the real estate is in my wife's name, not my name. But if anything happens to her, it goes in my name.
>> If he was a billionaire, it would be disclosed that he owns half of his wife's stock from Estee Lauor in the financial disclosures for the ethics committee. That was not disclosed. If something happens to his wife, god forbid, that will pass to him.
>> Oh yeah, that's stupid anyway because he's rich. Like >> he's a billionaire.
>> He may have only made 200 million on his own, but he's a billionaire, but he's a drunken Miller guy and he actually understands business.
I think that he understands that squabbling over half a percent or a percent of inflation is not nearly as important as where rates are and underpinning rates so you don't get into a situation of having to move them around and then having businesses in a position where they have to refi at crazy rates because they took debt out a couple of years ago at a much lower rate. Like we have a very serious problem. The rates should not move unless it is dire straits. Let the free markets figure business out. That's what the free markets are supposed to do.
When there is too much demand or I'm sorry, when there's too much supply, at some point demand will eat it. And if there's too much demand, not enough supply, know what's going to happen?
People are going to make more product because they can make money doing it.
>> By the way, I just want to say Gemini agrees with me. So, no, he's not. But he's married to his I'm just saying if we trust the AI, but your points, he's a freaking billionaire.
>> Yeah. I mean, obviously he's the dude is crazy wealthy. So, do you think that makes him more out of touch with the everyday American given how rich he is?
Or that makes him understand how economic and fiscal policy should work?
Look, >> I want the government runs.
>> Where did your mic go? Why is your mic unplugged right now?
I thought I thought this is your full-time gig now.
>> Yeah, I don't know. It was on the run, Mike. Um, I want the government run as a business and I think Worsh understands business.
I don't want the government run like government. I want the government run as a business. They're taking in trillions of dollars of our tax dollars.
I think him being a billionaire is probably helpful to like him understanding business stuff, but realistically I think the only reason his wealth is relevant in this economy is because uh at least the investments that he's made that have been disclosed have really been tech investments and a lot of them have been AI investments. So I think he thinks AI yes it will create a lot of wealth and he will become even more wealthier than he is today but it will create so much deflation maybe through the labor market which is a whole different problem that we don't need to raise rates and maybe that along with his sort of supply side hawkish understanding of of how fiscal policy should be conducted leads him to not hike not intervene but also leads him to not cut as aggressively which means you know eventually the rest of the Fed comes to the conclusion that rates should be coming down. Yeah, I mean, look, m my opinion. Look, it's my opinion. I may not be correct, but I'm correct in my mind, and everybody can disagree with me. That's fine. I don't think the rate should ever move from 2 and a half% unless they absolutely have to. To me, the job market is the most important thing, making sure that businesses can borrow at an effective rate. You don't want businesses borrowing at 7 8 9%. You don't want the carrying cost on credit cards 25 to 35%.
That's criminal. It's crazy. It destroys the economy. The reality is not everybody can pay in cash for everything. Not everybody can use a credit card and pay it off in cash. You don't want credit card rates that high.
You don't want debt that high.
Otherwise, people are never going to get out of debt and they're never going to be able to live a life that is not stressful. And you want the small business economy to thrive because that's always been the backbone of America. And when AI comes and these companies are cutting jobs, you want a robust smaller and middle market so they're able to find new jobs. Not to mention, when the debt is high, we pay more interest on the national debt.
That's not good for any of us.
Yeah. I don't know what the hell we're going to do with the debt. I've kind of accepted that we're never going to do anything about it. But I'm here for a good time, not a long time is my mentality with the >> A good time, not a long time. But we had a good time on Wednesday.
>> We did. And in 15 minutes, people will get to see a little bit of that good time on that podcast. What do you think of Reddit? So, did you see the Meta news today?
>> I did.
>> Is this like nonsense that Meta is going to try to take them over, or is this something to be concerned about? Well, I don't know about take them over. They're gonna try to take him out.
>> Do you think they're they're legit gonna try to take them out?
>> Seems like it. I mean, I'm Listen, I went over it on the stream. I'm down on the trade. I had to sell another cover call. I mean, I sold it at a number I didn't really want to, but I didn't have a choice and I got to throw a stop loss on it. So, you know what? Live and you learn. It gets to 13750, I'm out. But would you you wouldn't just DCA and build it into a full position or it was never meant to kind of >> this was never meant to be a very long-term play. This was meant to try something new that I don't really do much and I happen to like the setup. I like the numbers. But I look at the time when I did it, Meta certainly wasn't getting into that space. Now there the market is assuming that everybody that's using Reddit is just going to use Facebook's forum instead. I don't know if that's true, but I don't use either of the products. So, >> I don't think that's going to happen, dude. Like, to get Reddit users to go to Facebook, what what are basically group chats and like I don't think that's the same type of experience.
>> And I don't even know if Meta would be allowed to take them over at this point.
>> Oh, yeah. Meta will definitely not be allowed to buy them. That's >> I mean, could you imagine what would happen if they tried to acquire them?
Dude, Meta got away with highway robbery on two acquisitions. Instagram, which was the biggest one, and then WhatsApp.
>> No, but Instagram was a billion dollar acquisition back when Instagram was not that big.
>> No, but you got to listen to Kevin Crom, the founder of it. Like he's happy they made the acquisition, but like he had a feeling this thing was going to be they had enough evidence to realize it was going to be big. They were afraid that photos.
>> Yeah. Yeah. Well, they were, in hindsight, it's easy, but they were afraid that Facebook photos would commoditize them. In reality, Facebook photos were going to die off because everyone was going to Instagram.
>> The reality is that without Zuck, it would never become what it became.
>> That's fair. That's fair. Now, he did pay up for WhatsApp. He had to pay 19 billion for that. So, he had to pay for that. But that was the last um real acquisition, I guess. Uh uh what's the other one? Oculus. two billion they got that one for.
>> Yep.
Well, well, you know, hopefully you look at that as you know what, thank God that they bought that from Palmer Lucky because now he created Andrew.
>> Yeah, >> it happens for a reason.
>> What are your thoughts on uh the semi-trade? You are now a Micron shareholder. How are you thinking of the broader buildout and where do you think it goes from here? I love how people try making fun of me. Oh, it's a top. You know, remember what Josh said on the uh show. He's like when he started the RA RA RIA with uh Barry Ritz holds, people were joking around that's a top. Josh star in RAIA. Just because I buy something does not mean it may be the top or may not be the top. Like, >> but it's really good rage bait.
>> No, I mean, listen, I did the research.
I don't think that the AI buildout is stopping for the next several years and I think that the market's wrong on the forward earnings. I don't know. We'll see what happens.
>> So, and and you not just Micron, but you think the overall like picks and shovels play that is still disped.
>> Yeah.
>> I mean, I wrote about today on my Substack. I I actually went all into it on the substack.
Anthropic getting to raise 30 billion. I mean, all that money is going to be what what valuation do you think Anthropic ends up getting to when they go public?
Like this is >> You know what? If SpaceX is a $2 trillion company, Anthropic should be a$10 trillion company. How about that?
>> Okay, maybe not 10 trillion, but I think four trillion. You could you can make the case for it.
>> You can make the case if they're going to give that valuation to SpaceX, Anthropic should be a way bigger company.
Would you buy, let's say it goes public at 1.5, would you buy it?
>> Yes.
>> Yes. Right.
>> I don't even care what the numbers are.
>> See, that's how some people feel about SpaceX.
>> But there's a reason SpaceX is not growing.
>> You just said you don't care about the numbers. Some people don't care >> because look at it just went from 9 billion in revenue to 30.
>> That's numbers.
You're using numbers now.
>> Okay, let me just say let me rephrase. I don't care where the valuation is today because the growth rate is insane >> is what I mean.
>> SpaceX is not going to get that type of growth rate. Nor are they going to have the margins of anthropic.
>> And I do have a theory. Anthropic is going to be the enterprise winner. Open AI will be the consumer winner. And Open AI better go public first because if they don't, I think they're screwed because all the demand will be eaten up by anthropic.
do we so I agree with you but my consu like anthropic is still my like work stuff consumer stuff is still GPT for me like I haven't made the transition for what >> I use I use anthropic for everything >> use it for everything >> dude do you use Gemini besides making your thumbnails at all >> no >> okay so a lot of people in the chat do because I asked them the other day um by the way 30% of people have played WoW >> [ __ ] how many people do we have here >> out of basically a thousand votes, 33%.
>> I feel like I may have to make a [ __ ] guild and we just go.
>> I don't know if you're going to be able to sleep, but >> Well, I mean, I I didn't need sleep when I was your age. Maybe I can get back to that.
>> You I got to do a market show in the morning, so you got to figure it out.
But um yeah, OpenAI is still my consumer like go-to. But I agree with you. Open AI is not winning the enterprise like Anthropus.
>> No. Yeah.
>> And that means they I really wonder when these name SpaceX, Open Anthropic, when they officially go public, like we're looking at irrational valuations on so many different names, whether it's overvalued or undervalued. Those three names in the private markets is easy to keep going up and up. I wonder when they have to deal with the scrutiny of Wall Street Bets and Goldman Sachs and one random headline because something happened across the world, how that really affects those stocks or if they just persist through all of it because of their narrative.
Wow, you got a lot of people saying they play this.
>> Bring up Peggy's thing. My eldest son was freaking addicted to that.
Uh, >> you know, the only Grand Theft Auto I got addicted to was maybe for like six months to be I wasn't even like addicted. It was like Vice City.
>> Vice City was amazing.
>> Yeah. And it's like >> the music was great. Everything was just great about it.
>> But I didn't even know what I was I don't even think I accomplished the missions. I would just go around and do random stuff. Like I didn't really I don't think I really understood how to play the game. Um, but you know there are going to be a lot of people excited about the new one.
Um, okay. So, final couple headlines and then we will officially put out this pod for everybody. Hopefully everyone has a great Memorial Day weekend. Markets will be closed on Monday and uh so I will not be live. Maybe Steve goes live on Monday, but I will not.
>> I'll be live all weekend.
>> Okay, there you go.
>> Matt and I are going to be live tomorrow afternoon. I'll be live tomorrow night.
Sunday we'll do something and then Chris and I'll be live on Monday.
Yeah, I feel like all of us are still going to be thinking about stocks on the weekend to be What are people doing for the weekend? Put in the chat. Yeah. Is anyone going to barbecue? Are you going to barbecue, Steve?
>> Uh, I will be barbecuing on Sunday during the day.
>> Yeah, put in the chat what people are doing.
>> Lena, I am not going live at 6 today. We are uh going to let basis points do its thing. I'll be live probably later tonight.
the the international folks don't have a Memorial Day on Monday. So, I guess it's mainly for Americans for this long weekend. Smoking cigars.
You know, the last cigar I smoked was the New York meetup. Steve took us to a lounge.
>> It was fun. I haven't smoked one since.
>> Look at that. Irwin's going to go to Vale and Snowboard.
>> Oh, hold on. We got to give Irwin a shout out today. So Irwin, which I told you guys the story about uh his ASO tweeted it.
>> Yeah, I'm pulling it up right here. Mr. Irwin today, he went through hell the past few months, but uh conviction sometimes really pays and sometimes it really hurts, but it is your uh reward or risk to be able to take past a million dollars in his portfolio at 29. Rocket Lab G Palenter gave me my first 100K. Rocket Lab first 500. ASM first million.
>> I love it.
>> It's pretty cool, man. Pretty freaking cool. And uh I I felt like I was on his journey with him. Not financially because I wasn't in the types of options he was, but emotionally the ups and downs and swings of it. I mean, look, I think you know what his story is uh emblematic of.
There is a we talked about this a while ago. There is a level of financial nihilism that is out there I specifically think with young men right now and many this is the rise of Kali the rise of poly market many people feel they need to risk it for the biscuit or else they're going to get left behind and I don't know how to resolve that from a philosophical moral or sociological perspective but the people that have taken some significant risks have to deal with the significant downside of those risks but if you're right and he sold all of his options today so he secured the bag um you know you you get to get a little ahead of other people at your age, but it requires a lot of risk and a lot of times it doesn't work. So it's kind of the nature of this economy right now.
You can either take it short and long and you know or you you you get the long-term investments by short wins every day or you try to get it all at once. And there's not a right or wrong.
It's just it is what it is. Everyone has to make their own decisions around it.
But congrats to Irwin. pretty pretty freaking incredible to see that or just two naked calls. Yeah. Or the draw down was evil.
Dude, I I relate because Robin Hood was that situation for me in 2024 and when it fell on Q3 earnings before the election and I saw the portfolio go from up here to down there and I'm like, "Oh my goodness, bro." I was like $3 away from, you know, and then Trump got elected and it went up.
It's a It's a pretty wild swing of emotions.
Okay, so before we release the pod, Steve, let me ask you this question.
This is the final question to the chat.
Um, given where the market is after the past six months, let me pull up a month to date right here. What is the one stock that is still interesting to you to buy?
>> Whether story, whatever it is, >> I can't say it.
>> All right. Okay. Okay. So, Steve can't a specific reason. Put the chat.
>> I'm not I wouldn't be allowed to say it for another five minutes.
>> That's actually a great >> And knows why I'm not allowed to say it.
>> I know why I can't say. Uh I see Nvidia.
I see a lot of metas.
I see a few Zetas. I see a bunch of Service Nows.
Colar and Virgin Galactic. Is that comment serious or are we just messing around? Service Now, Redwire, dude, shout out to the Redwire gang. You guys had a great day. Absolutely great day.
Nvidia, Meta, Amazon. You know, I I I think a lot of these Mac 7s that have been disrespected, Nvidia, Meta, and Microsoft are your kind of core three of them.
You could say those are up there for people.
>> Oh, hey, can you drop your link to C the Cactus Jack thing? I want to support it.
>> Yeah, >> I got busy today. I didn't have time. I want I need to >> When you're streaming, if you need updates, it could >> No, I just want to Okay. cactusjack.com.
>> Jose just text me. He said, "Tell Steve I'll join his WOW guild."
I don't know what a Wow Guild is, but Jose's ready to join. I mean once you start all right let me only milk yes there you go only milk all right cool let's put out this pod I think people will enjoy it I'm going to press publish on it right now >> before you do >> okay >> how h how did you think it went >> I think it was good I think it was someone who doesn't really do retail investor communications often.
Definitely not in person. They flew out to New York for a different reason. We happened >> they flew somewhere else and came to New York.
>> Yeah. They didn't come just for us, but they were in they were there for a day.
>> They were in the Northeast.
>> They were in the Northeast. It happened to work out.
>> It happened to work out.
>> And so I thought it was good. I thought it was an important pod. I think it's very exciting. It's definitely a stock that a lot of retail has been championing on for the past few years and um I think we gave him a good platform to express his story and put out the message he wanted to put out to everybody. So having said that let's make it live right now and make sure I am doing this properly.
Okay, here we go. The pod is live. I am tweeting the clip.
>> Are we going to watch a clip together?
>> We're going to watch the clip. It's a minute long clip and then you guys can go enjoy your long weekend and hopefully enjoy the pod as well. Ladies and gentlemen, for the first time on Basis Points, the CEO of SoFi, Mr. Anthony Noto.
>> I I don't want to in any way mislead you. Like, does it bother me the stock's down as much as it year to date? Yeah, it [ __ ] bothers me a ton. Does it bother me that people are talking crap about me on Twitter and our company and disrespecting our >> you used to be the CFO of? So, you know, listen, I at the end of the day, we're being held to a high standard. I've accepted that responsibility. I'll work my butt off to make sure we deliver on it, but it but it does bother me and I'm doing everything I can to change it. Um, we're not changing our plans. We're not changing our priorities because they're the right plans and priorities to deliver the growth that we've told the street, which is over 30% revenue growth and a 30%, you know, incremental EBA margin. So, 30 and 30 is a pretty good outcome. Could we beat that? Sure, we beat in Q1. We did 41% um revenue growth on a billion dollars of of uh you know a billion dollars over a billion dollars of revenue with great incremental margins of 40%. I I don't it's Anthony.
It is Anthony Noto. Shout out to Mr. Chris Hager data driven investing. Uh incredibly smart guy. Obviously they brought him in to help with a lot of things going on with SoFi. He recommended to Anthony and the team to come sit down with Steve and I in New York and uh he sat down with us and I think I think think people enjoy it.
Steve, your thoughts now that we know who it is?
>> Yeah, first big thank you to Anthony Noto for doing this. I reached out to him and then we reached out and we made it happen. Chris made Chris helped out a lot with it.
I really do believe everybody is going to love this. Especially, look, I didn't hold anything back. And this was not some little fluff job. I can tell you that right now. And if you listen to this entire episode, I think you're going to walk away looking at SoFi differently.
and it made me after writing 34 articles about SoFi look at it in a different light. It is uh there's not enough good things I can say about this episode. I think it was incredible.
>> Yeah. Look, obviously people know my history with uh SoFi. I am not as heavily allocated to SoFi as I am Robin Hood. I have championed in the basically 2023 to 2025 saga of SoFi versus Robin Hood that Robin Hood was a better investment. That does not mean I do not respect the company, respect their growth, respect their metrics. Uh I have a different interpretation of how I think of technology and particular financial services in technology which is why Robnood was my bigger bet. Having said that, I do think SoFi is one of the most incredible companies that's out there from a growth perspective. I think Anthony is one of the most incredible leaders that is out there. uh the stock has been hit and for the first 15 minutes of the podcast we are very explicitly talking about the stock and in a way Renoto is being very vulnerable honest and in my opinion very authentic about why the stock hasn't performed. I mean you know when we talk about a stock it's not just like a game like this is real money or people that have real money inside this name that have been waiting for this stock to make a move and I think we all have experiences of you know holding on to a stock and it not moving and us being frustrated at management or this or that. I think the interesting thing about SoFi is people aren't really frustrated at the company at all because compan has been executing like crazy. What they're frustrated about is the market interpretation of that execution. And um I think Anthony spent a lot of time really explaining his interpretation of the market's interpretation, what he thinks needs to happen for it to change and you know how they're going to continue to to build the business. So >> um >> and I I would add one thing for everybody that is saying it's a boring bank. you know that I have argued for a long time that it's more of a financial institution. I would really challenge you to listen to this with an open mind because I think that the point was made very well that this is a technology company and the future of this company is technology and the opportunities ahead of it are enormous. So, I just ask everybody to watch it with an open mind.
I went into this having one idea in my head. I came out with another.
>> Yeah. I don't really care if people are bullish or bearish after this. I don't care if you buy the stock or not. That that's we we want to build basis points into a podcast where any CEO feels comfortable to come on and tell their story. Whether it's Jensen Hong one day, whether it's Elon Musk, whether it's the CEO of uh Costco or, you know, the CEO of Walmart, like I we want to build it into a platform where anyone is comfortable expressing their story. Uh and then people get to make their own decision based on, you know, how they're hearing if they ultimately want to >> engage in the equity or not. But I I think Noto, this is the first time he actually sat down with two. were really uh honored that he sat down with us and I think he enjoyed the conversation and I think he felt comfortable enough which hopefully speaks to how the podcast is is turning into a a home for for influential people to come on and express their story to be himself and to say the f-word and curse and just be like, "Yeah, I'm [ __ ] pissed off that the stock's not moving, but like here's how I'm trying to work my ass off." I mean, pushing 60. He's accomplished a lot in business, NFL, Goldman Sachs, Twitter, and he is still working his ass off every day. And I, as someone who wants to be very successful in business, you just have so much respect for someone, and you also have so much respect for the [ __ ] he has to deal with with the stock not moving, not only the institutional investors upset, not only his uh equity grants basically going out the window because he needed that thing to get at least to 25 to make some serious money, not only retail investors being pissed off, but then actually delivering every 90 days. you have I have a lot of respect for someone who runs a public company and is and is growing that company at 40% which is like 20 companies in the entire market that can do that. And so I'm happy that we got to sit down and talk to him.
>> And I did make him laugh twice.
>> Before we leave, do we show the clip?
You know the clip I'm talking about. Do we show that?
>> I think we can show it. Should we tell Should I say what I did or not?
>> No. No. But let's let's I I want to show the clip because this is at the this is at the very end of the pod.
>> Very end.
>> I'm sure the people that really want to watch this will get to it. If you Okay, here. Let me do this. If you want to be surprised at the end of the podcast, leave the stream right now. Go listen to the pod. Let it naturally happen to you because it is such a good moment.
>> You know what? Maybe maybe we don't show it. No, >> I think we got maybe >> I'm gonna I'm gonna clip it on Twitter anyway. So, >> think about what our reactions were when he said it.
Don't you want everybody to experience that?
>> Yeah, but I don't want to piss people off. I Now I said it already. Now I feel like we got to show it. I don't want to make people wait. It's going to be clipped up on X. Anyway, if you don't want to see it, this is your warning.
Leave now.
>> All right, you got 10 seconds. Leave.
Have a good weekend. Blah blah blah.
>> Yeah, got 10 seconds. Have a great weekend. For those that might not be able to get through the full pod, it is a hell of a clip and we will talk about it. All right, last five seconds.
You can leave. Go to the pod. We'll see you on Monday.
All right, if you're still here, here's the clip because this [ __ ] was crazy.
When I say this [ __ ] was crazy, it was crazy. And they let us keep it in the pod. Shout out to SoFi's IR team. They let us keep it.
>> Shout out to SoFi for letting us keep this in. This is incredible.
>> Focus on the next quarter or the next six months or the next year and getting a return. I know that $15 is trading at two times tangible book, I'm pretty confident our tangible book is going to continue to grow and even if the multiple doesn't change, which I think it will, you'll have a great appreciation from here. Um, I've never bought with leaps, but yesterday I was on chat GPT and started looking at leaps and and the reason is >> this is not happen. This is crazy.
>> No, no. The reason the reason why I did is like, you know, I only have so much cash. Like I may have a certain amount of wealth, but when it comes to cash, like I'm not selling SoFi stock. Like, >> and I'm happy you said that because a lot of people are like, "Well, he's worth so much. He's throwing a million."
It's like a million dollars is a lot of money.
>> I don't think people realize like where I came from, a million dollars was what you if you ever heard that in your life, you were one half of a percent of So, >> I think everybody should go listen to your speech from Stanford at the National Football Foundation.
>> Well, thank you. Um anyway, I was looking at LEAPS to try to get more exposure with the little bit of cash I have left that I could allocate uh towards it. A lot of what I've invested in over the last 30 years has huge capital gains and the tax implications are pretty significant. Yeah.
>> Um so I'm just trying to find a way to get more exposure and >> and uh do it in a responsible long-term way. And >> that moment was kind of crazy. Say what you want about what you think about his strategy, but you have a CEO of a company saying, "I'm on chat GBG trying to figure out leap strategies because I don't have the physical cash to buy more stock because he's been buying a lot of stock in the open market and I want more exposure and that's the whole point of an option, right? To control a 100 shares for less than what it costs to buy the 100 shares." I mean, I thought that was just a crazy moment.
>> It was It was amazing.
Absolutely amazing. Can't say enough good things about this. And you know, I think everybody's really going to like it. I really do.
>> Yeah. I mean, look, it was pretty cool.
It was pretty cool. He's very open, honest, direct about how he thinks about the stock, where the business is going.
You know, the stock was probably 20% of the discussion, but 80% of it's really the core business. So, if you care about SoFi's business, uh, and I learned things about Sofa that I didn't even know about because when you actually sit down with the CEO and get to ask them questions, you start realizing, oh, there are these things that I like SoFi USD really have never thought about it at all and the opportunities there. And so, there's a lot of different things there that hopefully people people will enjoy.
>> Yeah, I think it's going to be a huge business. Huge.
>> All right, so that is it. Thank you everybody for being here. Thank you for showing all the love on basis points.
Means the world. Hopefully we can turn this into one of the better podcasts that's out there in finance media and uh get a lot of different guests that want to show up on the show and hopefully create some great content for everybody else. Thank you all for joining. Steve will be live later tonight, live throughout the weekend. I will be live Monday night for futures. So, we'll see everyone then. Appreciate everyone.
Hopefully everyone has a good long weekend. Congrats to everyone. Markets all-time highs. I know not every sector is moving up, but had a lot of names, a lot of sectors, quantum this week, space that are coming back, helping portfolios, and hopefully we keep that going into the end of May.
>> All right, everyone. Have a great weekend.
>> Thanks, everybody. See you guys Monday.
Bye, everyone.
Related Videos
Truckers Finally Seeing Higher Rates… But Carriers Are STILL Going Bankrupt
LetsTruckTribe
480 views•2026-05-28
IS THIS THE REAL REASON FOR DATA CENTERS?
PrepperDawg
7K views•2026-05-31
JPMorgan CEO JUST NUKED Mamdani... as NYC's Middle Class COLLAPSES
Englishman-In-NewYork
7K views•2026-05-30
The Dark Age Of Blue Collar Has Begun
derekpolasekofficial
4K views•2026-05-28
Why People Pay More For Someone They Trust
financian_
66K views•2026-05-28
What has a broader economic impact, corporate downsizing or ecological collapse?
theratracejournal
1K views•2026-05-29
China Is Quietly Buying Gold, the Iran Deal Is Frozen, and Silver Is Heating Up
RichardHolloway0
694 views•2026-05-31
Why Canadians can no longer afford to survive #canada #inflation #shorts
TrueNorthInvestor-v4j
131 views•2026-06-01
