This analysis effectively reframes market stagnation as a strategic accumulation phase by grounding crypto volatility in broader macroeconomic cycles. It serves as a sobering reminder that long-term wealth is built through disciplined patience rather than chasing short-term price action.
Deep Dive
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Deep Dive
Wasted 5 Years In CRYPTO! (REALITY Check)Added:
You and I have wasted five years in crypto, investing in crypto, trying to understand what's going to happen next in crypto. We've wasted five years in crypto.
Have we really though?
Successfully wasted five years in crypto. Look at this. Ethereum 5 years ago, $3,900. Ethereum today 22.90.
Look at this. Last month, $262 for a potato. Today, $21.80 for a potato.
Potatoes are outperforming Ethereum.
Everybody, potatoes are outperforming altcoins. You look at this data. If you go look at the total crypto market cap chart, excluding Bitcoin, this is the last 5 years, and it absolutely looks like we've wasted our time. And I will be very upfront with you right now.
There have that that thought has has trickled in to my mind a little bit. But in the same sense that it's trickled into my mind as an entrepreneur, being an entrepreneur, being a business owner, whether you're in crypto or not, there's a lot of business owners, I think, that watch this channel, you know exactly what I'm talking about. There are those moments when you're when you're doing something, when you're investing in yourself or your business and you're building something and you're not getting that immediate result and you're like, you're questioning, is this the best idea to be doing this?
Taking my time and doing this. It is precisely what's going on on this chart.
If I break down this chart for you. So May of 2000, this is altcoins. You can go look at the same thing on Ethereum.
May of 2021.
Just look at this.
I mean over $4,000 for Ethereum right now. Ethereum sitting at $2,300.
5 years later in May of 2026. That looks like failure.
And if we go look at the altcoin market cap chart and then I want to explain this to you. If you look at the altcoin market cap chart, it's very similar, right? May 2021 sitting at like one and a half trillion, just about one and a half trillion. Right now it's at a trillion. It's down, right? If you're an alcoin holder, you've been waiting for an altcoin season. I want to show you something and I want to speak to this from a couple different angles, but the the very simple answer and and I don't know. I don't know if it's my optimism.
I don't know if it's just very simply how much I've studied on the crypto space, how undervalued the crypto space is, how I've studied liquidity as well as business cycle expansion and how it plays into these charts. How I've studied all the macroeconomic, you know, scenarios involving crypto and bull markets. I don't know what it is, but I will tell you 100% this has not been a waste of time. And I just don't think it's going to be a waste of time. But to really draw into perspective of of how difficult this has been from this May, I'm sorry, not from May, but from the bull market high of 2018. So, we're thinking like last cycle. We're thinking, by the way, this is I got into crypto like in 2017. I saw some really nice gains. I I don't think I sold anything at the top, right? I just thought I was one of those new newbies thinking we're just going to keep going and going. I started the business. I started Crypto Capital Venture 2018 and I went into the bare market.
But I was just so convinced on crypto, right? And so many of you probably at the time were as well. And it was 714 days is what it's saying on this chart from that swing high to right here. This moment right here, that was postquantitative tightening. Meaning quantitative tightening started I think in the end of 2017 and we went into this just bare market if you remember. And QT ended like back here. And this was the end of the post QQT dip, the normalization phase. And then we were getting ready for a new cycle. And you can see very clearly that was illustrated by this PMI down here, the business cycle expanding. There's the bull market. Here's the here's the difficulty for everybody that's especially an altcoin holder right now.
Bitcoin hasn't been that great either, but especially an altcoin holder. It has been sideways and really at this moment down right from 2021 May high. This is altcoins now 1600 days.
1600 days from that moment of all-time high. If I actually go to May it's even longer but 1600 days from alltime high uh versus 700 days last cycle. That's the difference. That's where the difficulty is coming into play.
Now, if we we peel off that layer because that's a very surface layer in my opinion and we start really bringing into play the macroeconomic side of things. If we start bringing into play just ab absolute real data, right?
Just look at Russell 2000. Okay? And you can go to Russell 2000. Here's November 2021.
Russell 2000 for example all the way to here to 2026 price almost exactly the same. Actually at this point in 2026 in this dip price exactly the same on the Russell 2000.
The reason I'm showing you the Russell 2000 is because the Russell 2000 isn't crypto scam crypto. You know what I mean? People are just like crypto is done. There is no use case. No, look at Russell 2000 for like five years. This is the Russell 2000. Obviously, smaller caps, but just traditional markets right there, right?
The reason I'm showing you that is because if you look at this chart, the reason why this happened was because we've had this contraction of the business cycle. We've had, if you think about this chart as well, record-breaking quantitative tightening, which started like somewhere around here, right? That's what's going on here. Now, all that has ended. PMI is starting to expand, and you can get a sense. I I I have this post up. This was for a different video. It's kind of getting in the way, though. But you can see PMI starting to expand right above 50. And if that expansion continues, the prolonged bear, the prolonged sideways like same valuation as 2021 for Russell is going to end in my opinion and is actually at the very beginning innings of it ending. Therefore, the same is true here on the altcoin market cap chart. And this is everything excluding uh Bitcoin. Now, here's the thing. This is where the opportunity presents itself everybody. It's in the difficulty of it and that's the opportunity of being a business owner and you know taking risks like that and this is why so many people give up you know running a business because it's not easy to do it and you question yourself a lot along the way.
And so there is such a similarity there with with this chart. But when it comes to the valuation of crypto, if there is an economic expansion and the PMI does expand, right, and there is a rotation from equities into crypto, really like we've seen in previous cycles, just keep this in mind, 714 days, right? Post QT dip ending crypto down like crazy. If you look at from the swing high, this is all market cap chart to this moment. down 89% in December 2019, looking bad, looking like the bare market's never going to end. But from that moment when it looked at the absolute worst, it looked like it was just not going to happen, man. 700 days in from the high.
There was growth in the crypto market.
All of this to say I don't regret at all starting my company Crypto Capital Venture right around there. Just I think March is when I formed it. March of 2018, but I think I I started doing the content probably right around here.
Recruiting just building in crypto. I don't regret it at all. And at the time, 714 days later, looking bad, down 90%.
Did I get in at the top? What am I doing? Am I wasting my time here?
Guess what? No, it was all very worth it.
1600 days later from the top here, continuing to build. Many of you continuing to accumulate, deciding to stay here through the bare market, thinking it might be around 700 days.
Here we go. We're exiting the bare market. No, we're not. We're exiting the bare market. No, we're not. We're exiting the bare market.
does seem like, man, did we waste our time?
If you go back at this chart, we're looking at like I think like right around here. Right around there, I launched our intelligence system. Here's an Ethereum risk model, by the CCV intelligence system, which right now our members are hopefully using it to find accumulation levels in terms of being low risk. But the question is, what was I thinking to launch here when we're getting like all this mess and we're just not breaking out. Crypto's done. And my whole point of bringing that up is you know what this system I am so happy I was talking with the guys yesterday about this. I'm just so happy we have this platform in place because I am so it's not a guarantee, but I genuinely, and this is why I'm here in crypto, I genuinely think we're going to have a bull market for crypto.
And this platform is built, it's proprietary, and I think it's going to help so many people make money. And I'm looking forward to using it myself for exits, for planning my exits. Because last cycle, I I I planned my exits. I I did a good job of taking profit. Could have done way better. But just imagine the system in a bull market. And so the question is as crypto has been like just terrible, you know, content creation in the crypto space, engagement has been terrible, growth has been terrible, companies laying off employees non-stop in crypto and just even maybe going out of business.
We get into this environment, everybody.
It will all be worth it. It will be worth it that I launch this company a year ago. It was last May within all this.
It will be worth it that I launch a company. It will be worth it for me that I stayed in crypto and I I committed to being here. I think it will be worth it that so many of you doing the same. I think it will be worth it that I'm staying invested in the crypto space because if you go back to the altcoin market cap chart and we look at this 3,200% gains from when it was just like man we're just not going to get a bull market. It's not going to happen again ever again.
We're in that moment now, right? Even fundamentally. So I'm talking fundamentals here too. QT ended like right here December 1st. We've had a post QQT Q QT dip which I've been tracking all year long.
I don't know if this is the moment, right? Maybe there's more chop and more sideways. I don't know. But what I do know is this. I think there's going to be great growth for the crypto space.
And that's what it looked like last cycle. I'm not saying we're going to get 3,200% from where we are right now. Be phenomenal. Right? There's a,000% bringing the altcoin market cap to 12 trillion. But please realize even a $5 trillion market cap move for the altcoin space that is a massive move from a trillion to 5 trillion and altcoins will be absolutely going crazy in that environment. And if we see continued growth and explosion out of this fiveyear range, I will tell you one thing right now. If you're deciding, even if you're not, you're not even happy about it. If you're deciding to stay in crypto, if this happens, because there's no guarantee, I'm not sitting here saying it's definitely going to happen everybody. I mean, maybe maybe the crypto space fails. I I don't know.
But I am saying if this plays out, you will not regret just being like, dude, I'm just I'm here for it. You know what I mean? I don't know what's going to happen, but I'm here for it. And it's just the same thing for Ethereum holders, altcoin holders in general.
If Ethereum, and I'm looking at Ethereum especially, I mean, the institutionalization for Ethereum is insane.
The accumulation, you know, in terms of you think of Tom Lee and Bitine, it's just insane. Why are they doing that?
Because they understand crypto cycles.
And yeah, the timeline is different right now, right? This was way shorter.
All the sideways and suppression and you know, Ethereum not doing anything.
Ethereum's done way shorter back then. But it's the same exact thing happening right now. The only difference is we've had a prolonged business cycle of compression. And if that lets go, and it's looking like it's going to, in my opinion, whatever this Ethereum chart does, whatever altcoin charts do, I'm here for it. And so that's the journey. Like that's the mental journey for me, right? You look at this and it is like it does seem like that. You look at this potatoes. It's easy to get bitter about crypto when you see stuff like this. It really is. But then you zoom out in the picture and you tell the you tell the full story and this is just what it is. It's absolute coiling in a space. It's one of the last spaces, one of the last asset classes to to do anything. Everything else is exploding. Potatoes are exploding. This thing is oversold.
And in my opinion, I really do think it's a pressure cooker. Not going to use that in the title, but I really do think it's a pressure cooker. So, I just wanted to do this video on a Saturday. I know there's not much analysis involved, but um it's more of mental analysis and it's more zoomed out macro analysis. I get a lot of hate for just, you know, being bullish and, you know, even through a bare market deciding to be bullish, but this is how I play the game, everybody. I'm I'm here to accumulate bare markets and sell on bull market highs. That's what I'm playing.
When you're playing that game and this is what it looks like, it's not easy.
But I think the last five years of accumulation and preparation and building are going to pay off. And I say all the time, I could be wrong. And if I'm wrong, I'm wrong publicly. And it is what it is. And this channel can be documentation of me being wrong. And you know, I'll figure it out after after we see how this plays out. But I really have a very good feeling about the crypto space and I think there are great things in store ahead. Um so many different perspectives but especially from a valuation perspective.
So these are my thoughts today everybody.
Potatoes potatoes I think it's going to be okay. So I appreciate you watching. If you're not a subscriber hit the subscribe turn notifications on. That really does mean a lot to me. And if you enjoyed the video, hit that like button. I'll see you in the next video. God bless.
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