LIVE: Premarket Setup Today — Watch This Before the Open | Stocks, Gold, Bitcoin, Nasdaq

[00:00:08]Good morning. Good morning.

[00:00:16]Good morning. Good morning traders.

[00:00:20]And my sound is good. Therefore, we are good. Welcome back everybody. Happy Tuesday.

[00:00:28]back for another day of fun. Of course, it's been a very slow week uh because of no US data, so that usually kind of slows things down a little bit. Uh just going over here to the economic calendar for the day. Let's see what we got. Slim Peckings, ladies and gents, we had unemployment rate earlier for the British pound about an hour before the London open. So, looks like they did have a 0.1% decline in their rate over there. That was pretty good. So, we'll take a look at their calendar overall here in just a second. But, as always, guys, if you would please like, share, subscribe, please help out our algorithm, and that way we can push more good content out to you guys, keep it free, all that fun stuff. Threearters of you are not subscribed according to our algorithm. So, please smash that button and do us a favor and help us out with that real quick.

[00:01:21]Hi, Andrea. Let me guess.

[00:01:24][clears throat] Andrea, you'll be happy to know that the British pound US dollar just smashed my alert.

[00:01:32]So, let's take a look at that here in a second because I know you're going to ask, right?

[00:01:37]Absolutely. Bastic, hi there. I'm wonderful. Oh, clearly that's the first time I spoke. So, I got to get the old frog out of the throat this morning. Get the caffeine smashed so that I can be turning cartwheels for you guys today.

[00:01:49]How's that sound?

[00:01:52]Good. Good deal.

[00:01:54]Guys, I'm going to just be on for uh let's see here.

[00:02:00]I'm going to be on for 45 minutes today, so it's a little bit shorter. Uh just so I can meet up with my team at the top of the next hour. So, uh we're going to just get right into this today. And as always, if you have any specific tickers you'd like me to look at, please do let me know. Uh because it is such a slim pickings day, I thought we would take a quick look at the economic or excuse me, the earnings calendar over here as well.

[00:02:22]uh just to get an idea of some of these stocks that are coming out today. And I'm still trying to figure out my calendar. There seems to there appears to be a little bit of an issue with the days that's showing under all these for me. And I don't know if it's just because I'm clear over here in the US or what, but anyway, u I think we do have Tesla coming out today. I do believe that's one of them. Uh if I just go a little deeper down, let's get rid of the mega cap the midcaps for a second. Just look at the large caps.

[00:02:50]Guys, let me know if there's any uh stocks, any any earnings, any of these that you'd like me to look at. Let's see. Today's Monday. Let's do this. This week, there we go. This week, and uh Dr. Horton. Oh, wow. I used to work for a company uh where we used Dr. Horton uh back in the day when I sold uh home security services. Uh used to work with a company called Oh my gosh. Tiger ADT.

[00:03:14]Yeah, that's right. And Dr. Horton was one of the uh developers that we actually installed services for. So, how about that? It's a small world, ladies and gents. You have a few jobs and then you start seeing them on the on the earnings calendar. It's quite entertaining. But yeah, Dr. They were one of the larger home companies I worked with worked with. Synchry. Uh what else we got? What else we got? 3M again, a little deeper down. I do think we saw Tesla. I think that's coming out a little bit later. There we go. Tesla.

[00:03:43]Got some [snorts] Texas Instruments for the calculator fans out there. I remember getting those gigantic cal calculators as a kid. It had like 942 buttons on it and I didn't know what threequarters of them did. Uh because I really didn't care about math as deep as everybody else. I can do geometry which I think is why I like trading so much because it's all about pattern recognition and and uh shapes on a chart. [laughter] So there you go. Uh IBM is on there as well. Yeah, we could take a look at a couple of these. We'll have a little bit of time today, I think. So, uh, let's just jump right into Tesla. Gosh, let's go. Let's go look at that. And I want to look, uh, let's go over here to TSLA.

[00:04:22]Tesla.

[00:04:25]Last thing I drew up over here on Tesla was a looks like a daily demand. Not really much of a gap at all. Um, we are at the bottom of that now. You see, we had a zone a little higher up. No earnings at that time. So, that's pretty well dead. We'll delete that. And down here at the bottom of this daily demand inside of the 4our chart over here on the left, looks like we have a gap.

[00:04:48]Looks like we have a 4hour daily confluence, guys. [clears throat] Little bit of a 4hour demand zone down here. Not the greatest volume down there, but uh you can see from a mile away, it's a pretty decent swing low.

[00:05:02]So depending on how those earnings come out today, who knows? If we could stay within that zone and get a little bit of a bullish engulfing candle, maybe a candle with a wick, a hammer candle with a wick, and some volume starting to creep in the bottom down here, we might have a buy on our hands. As always, not financial advice, but that's just my early thoughts. Taking a look at Tesla real quick.

[00:05:23]I'd be interested to see also over here.

[00:05:25]I'm looking off screen. I've got another C, another chart, and I would just want to see what the earnings look like.

[00:05:33]Tesla, let's go look at this thing real quick.

[00:05:36]TSLA, I'll get back to the chart with you guys here in just a second. Uh, okay. Yeah, not really a great score, so I don't think I'd be too interested in that at this time. But anyway, let me take a look at the chat over here.

[00:05:56]You were following.

[00:05:58]Okay, New Zealand CAD refusing to break resistance zone for the fourth time.

[00:06:06]Let's go look at that for you. Got to get out of my jacket, guys. It's 100° here. It's like 36 uh Celsius. Uh and I've got my AC pumped to the max. So, I literally had to wear my jacket for a while this morning. It was so cold in my house.

[00:06:21]Good stuff. And they finally opened up our pool. So, I cannot wait to go jump into that on Friday afterward. Uh, New Zealand Cat. Let's go have a look at this thing. [cough and clears throat] And I'm just going to look see what my scoring matrix is telling me on New Zealand Cat over here. Yeah, pretty well neutral from a jobs market, inflation, economic growth, consumer confidence, um, sentiment point of view. But we'll take a look at the we'll take a look here anyway at the chart. So, it is giving me a little bit of an uptrend. We are at the upper end of it because we do we are bouncing right into that swing high. I assume that's the one you're talking about.

[00:07:00]Some a little bit of daily resistance over here on the right. One, two, three, four. Yep, you're right.

[00:07:07]One, two, three, fourth time. Fourth time. Uh, let me see. Let me go dig a little deeper. I just want to see specifically where my fundamentals are telling me. Okay. So, if anything, it's getting closer to a bullish look, mainly because of the technicals. The sentiment seems to be showing it a little bit of love, but just like a minus one point on the economic data. So, in other words, the Canada dollar is obviously they're both strong, Canada and Kiwi. Kiwi is at the top of our list as far as fundamental strength right now, I do believe. We'll cross reference that in a second, but you got two strong currencies on your hand. And it just so happens that the Kiwi is leading the way. And rightly so. If we take a look over here at let's see, let's go to my economic surprise index and you'll see at the very top is the Kiwi. So, it's exceeding expectations on 83% of its high impact economic calendar events.

[00:07:58]Meanwhile, the CAD is up there as well.

[00:07:59]So, it's exceeding its 71% clip as well uh on its own right. Now, the CAD was in first place before stream yesterday, but remember they had some they had one negative piece of data come out. So, let's look at these two currencies a little deeper because I do know that the Canada got a little bit weaker. It's still strong overall. Anything 60% of a beat rate or higher for me gives me an active reason to want to go try to buy that currency. But now we're pairing it with another strong currency. So, if I had my brothers, as they say, I like I prefer to buy a strong currency with a weak currency. So in this case, the only weak currencies that I have the options of right now are the two having a party in the basement. That's Australia dollar and the US dollar. Believe it or not, the dollar has fallen from grace in the last 21 days since the uh misses started creeping in. [snorts] And so now it's down there with the Aussie. But let's look at your Kiwi.

[00:08:57]Let's look at your CAD a little deeper on the Okay, I'm turning off my space heater now.

[00:09:03]got a space heater under my desk and it didn't take long to warm me up at all.

[00:09:07]Uh let's see here. Let's go down here to economic data. Let's look at Kiwi because this is obviously the strongest currency. So, as you can see, the yesterday we had that bullish CPI number uh to kind of well bullish yeah to kind of continue the trend like the dollar and the Canada dollar recently how they have uh had cooler reports, cooler CPIs come out. So has the Kiwi. So that's kind of a trend guys. got some cooling inflation seems like kind of spreading across the globe which is a nice thing to see [clears throat] and or oh I said that co I said that totally backwards good grief tiger uh.1% increase I'm sorry that's right Kiwi was one of the outliers because it's still at 4.1%. Yeah, that's right. So, it's right there with the British pound, guys. The pound, the Kiwi, 4% or higher.

[00:09:55]They're still having some sticky inflation over there. Um, we have had a sticky inflation in our end over here as well in the US. But obviously, we had that.3% decline from the forecast the other day. So, that's why ours that's why ours gave us a a bearish red box for the US dollar. But, uh, and and looking at this on the opposite side for the Kiwi, it has actually increased. That's right. So anyway, uh you got five bullish boxes over here. Bullish PMIs, retail sales, CPI, PPI, and unemployment rate. You only have the one bearish box from the services sector. Thus, the 83% beat rate. So that's your Kiwi. That's our strongest fundamental currency right now. And then if we look at the Canada dollar on the flip side of that, [clears throat] here we go. This was the one I had in my head. This was the one that had the 0.1% uh cooling for the inflation, thus the bearish box for Canada. So that's why we went from I think it was a 85% down to a 71%.

[00:10:54]So you know, this is something that I used to uh not really pay attention to a lot is the fact of Yeah. Well, look, we had a we had a bearish box come in for Canada.

[00:11:09]Why not sell it? So Kiwi CAD would have been a good buy, but we have to look at all the data as a as an aggregate, right? So when we look at Canada, you can see they've had a bullish manufacturing and services sector for their PMI data. Uh also their retail sales and also their unemployment rate.

[00:11:28]You had a neutral employment change which basically cancels itself out. It neither hurts nor helps this particular currency. And not to mention the GDP number that we had back on May 29th. So that's a quarter overquarter number. So let's see, May, June, July, August. So at the end of next month, we should be getting that. So we can't even rely on that for another month to [snorts] get a updated box for that. So I say all that to say that it's still pretty strong currency overall. It was weak in the last 24 hours, but then when you get these weak retracements, at some point the aggregate of the data takes over. This is something that's important for us all to understand.

[00:12:07]Okay? It'd be different if we had a whole lot of red boxes up here, a whole lot of bearish boxes. Well, then you could say that we had a bearish we we we still have a bearish currency. But when we look at it as an aggregate, does this look strong or or weak to you? Looks pretty strong to me. So that's why me personally, I I'm just a little care a little more careful about pairing together two strong currencies because it could just make for a boring sideways move at some point. Now, we've had a good move.

[00:12:36]We've had that good move.

[00:12:38]uh of late, but that's just the natural es and flows of the market. So, it's not really strongly fundamentally driven, I don't think. Not when you have two strong currencies. So, that would be my only hesitation uh to buying that [clears throat] or selling that for that matter. I just don't have a play. I mean, if I'm looking at this thing on a fundamental, if I'm looking at this thing as far as my favorite zones, I still like this zone down here I drew up the other day.

[00:13:06]I drew up yesterday. I like it from a technical perspective, but I'm just not getting the fundamental sentiment reason to trade it.

[00:13:17]All right, Andrea, let's do pound dollar.

[00:13:21]Get my throat cleared out a little bit better for you guys. Sorry.

[00:13:25][clears throat] All right, so for pound dollar, we broke some major structures over here [snorts] and had a really strong close. That was our Wednesday candle from last week. A little bit of retracement, which I love to see. And now we have bounced into what? What have we bounced into? We have bounced into that 2hour demand zone, which is where we're at now. Just because I like everything, almost everything about this trade, does that mean I want to just pull the trigger right now? No. No. No. No. No. No. No.

[00:13:57]No. I got to go down to a one hour chart. And for me personally, guys, and it's different for everybody because we all have our ways of buying bounces or selling bounces.

[00:14:07]I would really like to see first of all, let me make sure. Um, so my 50 EMA is above my 200 EMA. I like that we've obviously pierced the 200. I like that.

[00:14:21]Uh, we have a zone of orders over here, unfilled order potential. We have a very strong move up. a lot of green candles again that broke all these structures over here to the left.

[00:14:33]We have a uh short-term downtrend. Okay, we have a strong uptrend overall. We just saw it on the day daily time frame, but on the execution time frame, we have a miniature downtrend. So, it's a counter trend trade anytime you do this.

[00:14:46]So, how do we how do we how do we navigate this? Well, so far the one thing that I'm a little hesitant on is the fact that it pierced more than 50% of the demand zone. As you can see, it's probably pierced closer to 80, 85%.

[00:15:01]Well, that's not necessarily a deal breaker yet, but what I personally want to see is a bullish close on this candle.

[00:15:10]There there's really a couple ways to do this bullish close. So, I need to see a a 1 hour green candle close and then possibly the the I guess you could say the most aggressive way to take that is just buy the breakout of that 1 hour green candle. Now, it still has some work to do. So, there's nothing I can do right this second because I still don't know if this zone's going to hold, right? So, let's So, for me, it's okay, it's 7:32 a.m. my time here in here in Kansas City. So, at 8:00 a.m. my time, in other words, the top of the hour, I want to see if we have a bullish close.

[00:15:45][clears throat] If we have a red candle, I have to wait another hour.

[00:15:50]I have to wait another hour to see if we get a bullish green close at that point.

[00:15:55]And I'm not talking about a candle that closes with a wick on the top like this green candle here.

[00:16:03]Like if we close with a candle like this, it's a green candle, but then we have a big wick up top, then that's telling me sellers are still rejecting it. So, I don't want that. I don't want a green candle like that. I want a green candle more like this over uh that one's still got a little bit more of a wick.

[00:16:19]Maybe this one right here, guys. Give me a [clears throat] candle like this.

[00:16:23]Here, let's get rid of my that. Let's get rid of that. Give me a green candle like this.

[00:16:29]And see how the volume steps in.

[00:16:32]the VSA.

[00:16:34]That's the kind of candle I want because then you can see the strength of it carries it. And then of course, we probably bounced into a smaller time frame supply zone over here. It's probably why we got a rejection. But I want to see a candle like that close.

[00:16:48]Not a candle like this with a wick on the top or that.

[00:16:53]So, I need to see a green candle. Uh what else?

[00:16:58]The other option that we have is a confirmation entry.

[00:17:03]So you can see how we have a obviously we have our highs. We have lower high here. We have a lower high here.

[00:17:10][clears throat] So the get rid of that since I know already know where we're at. Probably on this maybe I would drop down to a 30 or maybe even a 15. Okay. So 30 minute. So you see right here we got a little bit of a teaser of a supply zone. Now, I don't think it's like I don't think it's the strongest. [clears throat] Good grief.

[00:17:33]Sorry, guys. Drink some water.

[00:17:42]Kevin [clears throat] Wars. Yeah, let's talk about him in a second. Let me [snorts] finish this example here.

[00:17:48]But anyway, uh yeah, it's kind of hidden, guys. But this is a hourly supply zone even though it's a red basing candle. So what I think I would like to see on this particular trade is again if I want to be a little more conservative because the aggressive approach is wait for that bullish green candle close and then buy the break out of it.

[00:18:09]We're buying a breakout but it's not a breakout in the traditional sense like over here. See over here these these are breakouts from this swing high. Maybe this swing high, this swing high, this swing high, but then they it gets retraced. This [clears throat] is a breakout in a discount area. So that's where this is a little different than the traditional way people buy breakouts or short breakouts. Okay.

[00:18:36]But what I would want to see now, now that I see we have a little bit of a hidden one hour supply zone, I [clears throat] I if I want to be extra conservative, I'd want to see a break out of it, a break and close above it [snorts] or and most importantly safe most safest would be a break and close above this lower low or lower high rather. So something like this because the goal here is to break this structure break and close because by by breaking and closing above that what does that create? An impulse move, right?

[00:19:15]A bullish impulse move.

[00:19:19]In other words, that series of candles that hasn't created itself yet, and this [clears throat] still might take another day, guys. This may not be something we trade just because it hit my zone today.

[00:19:28]Remember, just because it hits a zone doesn't mean I just take action. We still I still have to see some things work.

[00:19:35]This is 50% of my question right here of if it's going to turn around or not.

[00:19:40]50% of my question answered because it was a change of character, a chalk, a break a structure. Now, it's a change.

[00:19:48]It's it's technically change of character because it's breaking a or changing its character of downtrend to possible uptrip or uptrend. And that's the key word is possible.

[00:19:59][clears throat] So if it does that, it breaks supply, it breaks the swing high. This is where breakout traders start coming into the market, guys, just because it it changed its character. It broke its structure to the upside.

[00:20:15]So yes, this will start introducing breakout buyers. And where what are breakout breakout buyers going to do with their stop losses? Well, they're going to put them down here somewhere.

[00:20:24]And again, the smart money knows that.

[00:20:27]So, what I would want to see hopefully is a brand new demand zone created somewhere in this area.

[00:20:33]That's where I would want to buy. And that's why I drew this up roughly right here. 618 retracement of that uh impulse move is a good one. 50% just depending on where this stop loss is or this uh demand zone. I don't know where this demand zone is going to form yet. It may form 50%, may form lower. It may form all the way at the base. I don't know yet. The lower the better because that's the better price, right? That's the cheaper price.

[00:20:59]So, this is the confirmation entry, guys.

[00:21:03]That's the confirmation entry. And just to recap it, because I think this is important, guys, if you're looking for an ultra-conservative way to to buy into a trade or short, this is a very good strategy. In fact, I put this strategy on uh the most recent video, which is not up here just yet, but I do have a new video that should be coming out, I think, on Monday, talking about this, talking about the confirmation entry. So, just so you guys know, we did get the sixth video uploaded yesterday timing the bounce on supply and demand zones. Now, you you would think it would be in this section here, but it's actually in the the video after because I got two videos coming out on odds enhancers.

[00:21:46]This one here and then the one that uh again will be released I think on uh Sunday or Monday. So, uh it'll it'll get talked about a lot more in that. But this this is my favorite. This is my favorite.

[00:21:59]This ensures that we're not catching falling knives.

[00:22:04]Okay. Yes, we're doing it relative to the uptrend. But still, even though I'm still buying in in in relation to the uptrend, I still want to see a confirmation entry on this thing mainly because of how the swing low swing highs are continuing to drop and drop and drop. So, let's break that structure.

[00:22:21]Let's change that structure around and then wait for a retracement. Okay. Often times, this demand zone may not even happen on a one hour. This is where I have permission to drop down to a 30 minute or a 15 minute to see if I can find that demand zone that's created.

[00:22:37]I'm not I'm not too picky about doing it from the one hour like I do my execution of the demand zone itself.

[00:22:43][clears throat] So 1 hour, 30 minute, 15 minute, whatever gives me the best picture, I'll take it. So uh I know that's probably boring to hear. We all want action, but again guys, we're not here to we're not here for action. We're here to make money. So, if we want to make money safely, we have to we the the chart has to tell us when to enter. And when I still see lower lows and lower highs like this so far, I don't know. I don't know that I want to do that just yet.

[00:23:11]So, again, I gave an aggressive approach and I gave a conservative approach. The aggressive once again is a green candle close, break out of that. The conservative approach is to get a break of structure and then a retracement to a newly created demand zone. So that right there, you know, if you're having a great day, if I'm having a great day or a great week or a great couple weeks, I'll perhaps, you know, I'm on fire, perhaps I could be a little looser and just buy the breakout of the one hour bullish close. If I've had a loss or two in a row, maybe I want to be a little more conservative. I've got a conservative way to enter this trade.

[00:23:51]Okay? So, it really just kind of depends on what you feel. if you're waking up on the right side of the bed, if you've had a recent uh good run of bad luck or a bad run of good luck or good run of good luck or whatever the case is. So, there's you a couple ideas.

[00:24:05][clears throat] Okay, let's see what you guys got up here.

[00:24:11][snorts] Do you think that worsh being more discreet will make institutions pull from dollar and invest in gold? says or asks Renor Jean. [snorts] Well, when it comes to gold, you would think that with the war and the uncertainty, you would think we would get some gold going long because of gold likes to thrive a lot of times on chaos.

[00:24:44]But, um, there's really a couple ways to look at this.

[00:24:50]So, we're seeing rates go up.

[00:24:53]We're seeing uh uh the yields, I should say, the yields go up. We go from we're going to cut rates at the start of the year to oh wait, now we're going to raise rates. And what is one thing that gold hates?

[00:25:08]What is one thing that gold hates? It hates raising rates. It doesn't like it.

[00:25:13]It doesn't like rates to go up.

[00:25:16]So there it's kind of a double-edged sword in the short term. Probably going to keep gold suppressed, if not even going a little bit lower. But at some point, if our jobs data starts to suffer here in the states because of the risen rates, then they'll likely need to cut rates at that point just to help the job site out. If those jobs start getting affected, that's where the economic uncertainty could start to pop in here in the US, possibly start to see gold rise at that point. So, it's kind of a double-edged sword. It's kind of a two-sided answer.

[00:25:48]Maybe shortterm gold stays down, but longer term, if the jobs market starts getting affected, then that's where the uncertainty comes in economically, we can start to see gold rise. So, yeah, I'm not I I'm pretty well neutral on gold right now.

[00:26:03]Um, partly just because of those two reasons. The data doesn't tell me to buy nor sell. I mean, gold is getting a little bit of fundamental strength, but not really a whole lot out of the sentiment and the technicals at the moment. Same thing with silver. They're pretty well the same.

[00:26:20]Um, but there's a the good news is there's a task force for that. [laughter] Kevin Warson, his five task forces. So, yeah, I don't like to personally try to project stuff like that. I just try to use a little bit of logic. You know, how do rates affect gold? How does inflation affect everything? The dollar, gold, the indices, the yields. So, that's kind of uh just a couple early thoughts from that, which is why I don't really have a great opinion on gold right now, just because of the well, the uncertainty.

[00:26:56]And when it comes to the rates, the rate decisions, again, that was the goal at the start of the year was to rate uh drop rates.

[00:27:04]That's what President Trump has been talking about, adnauseium.

[00:27:08]which I think is partly why he added Kevin Worse because he felt like he might do that. But he also said to Kevin Worse, "You've got the reigns. I don't want to have any influence. Just do what needs to be done." So I think I feel like I know that I know [clears throat] he spoke like he wanted him to cut rates before he got appointed and all that.

[00:27:25]Just in my watchings of him interacting with him at at in the Oval Office and things of that nature and the way he talks to the media about President Trump talks to the media about Kevin Worse. It doesn't seem like he's going to like hound him like everybody thinks he is.

[00:27:38]Everybody thinks that that he installed him because he's his puppet, but I just don't see it. I think Kevin Horse is pretty self-reliant and he's told us the Democrats asked him 50 different angles on his most recent uh Capitol Hill appearance about uh working without the politics creeping in and again 50 different angles like I don't know how else they could have asked and he kept saying over and over eyeball to eyeball no we're working independent we're working off the data so I believe him I believe Kevin Worse and I believe Kev uh President Trump when he said to him in front of everybody at his initiation that he's just going to let him do his thing. He's not gonna influence him or any of that. So, we'll see, guys. We'll see. You just got to the news, the legacy media will absolutely drive us crazy about stupid stuff like that. So, I would just say this. Ignore what the hell the legacy media says because they all have agendas. They all want clicks on their shows and it's I'm telling you I've I have went down the rabbit hole of studying all these legacy media outlets.

[00:28:47]Um no matter what it is, left, right, center, it is an absolute absolute mess.

[00:28:53]So guys, I've said it before, I I'll say it again. The best thing to do in certain uh aspects of getting straight to the horse's mouth is just to go follow those people. President Trump, prime ministers, premers.

[00:29:08]Okay, I mean over here on my followers list, let's see, go to my following list.

[00:29:15]You know, certain trader friends that we have, uh, Secretary of War, Department of War, so we can see exactly what's happening overseas. Uh, let's see what else we got. Somewhere down this list, I've got all the the big wigs. All the big wigs. Most of the big wigs, the central banks, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Reserve Bank of Australia. This is all I use my ex page for, guys. My personal one, not my trading one, but my personal one. President Trump, which he doesn't get on uh ex very much.

[00:29:46]Obviously, he has his own thing. uh big trader people, New York Stock Exchange, Bank of Japan, Bank of England, uh several trader friends or you know, trading gurus that I've followed over the years. Central Banking, Federal Reserve, CME Group, Merlin, awesome dude. Uh, that's not even my full list, but anyway, the point is follow the follow the people directly on their page. Premers, prime ministers, central bankers, those types of people.

[00:30:18]And stay the hell away from Legacy Media. I'm telling you, it's an absolute mess. Dog and pony show. I've been studying it for a decade now. It's just crazy. There's good people in both, but there's also bad people in both. So, I don't pay attention to it. Anyway, sorry to get off on a tangent. Uh, let's go take a look at the 30,000 foot view over here, guys. The VIX still elevated.

[00:30:41]Still 1787. We're still away from the 20s, so not too awful bad. Let's go get my daily back up here. There we go.

[00:30:49][snorts] A little bit elevated, but not too bad.

[00:30:52]Dollar index. This thing's still just in a congestion, a slow grind down.

[00:30:57]Remember, we've had six bearish boxes pull pop up on the uh page on the uh US economic heat map. In fact, I promised you guys earlier I would go over here uh what did I say I was going to do? Let's go back to my uh well, never mind. I already did.

[00:31:18]Yeah, Kiwi and Canada. Oh, a dollar.

[00:31:19]That's what I wanted to look at. So, let's look at the dollar heat map. So, remember we've got six bearish boxes this last two uh three weeks.

[00:31:28]manufacturing services PMI data CPI PPI from last week and obviously the ADP and non-form payroll. So again, this right here has a lot of bearing on part of your question about dollar and gold and all that. If we start seeing more so far, it's still overall bullish uh uh data, bullish uh labor data, guys. That's three out of five. That's a 60%.

[00:31:53]if we start seeing some jolt numbers drop, maybe the unemployment rates start spiking again, that could affect gold, but right now we still got a good labor data. We're just trying to fight a little bit of inflation. And most importantly, again, we had a.3% decline in inflation. So, I just don't think that's a great recipe for gold right now. I just think that gold's going to stay right where it's at, if not even drop a little deeper. But, I don't have a bias on it. It's pretty neutral. But if I had to take a guess, probably just going to stay where it's at for a while or just drop a little lower. So, uh, yeah, going over here to gold.

[00:32:29][clears throat] We've had a 50. Let's see. On a daily.

[00:32:32]Let's go. Let's do this. I want to go over here. Yeah, we still have clearly still have a downtrend. Lower lows, lower highs. The 8 EMA is below the 21 EMA. Still pointed down rather decent.

[00:32:46]We did form a little bit of a close to a double bottom.

[00:32:51]over here, but we bounced into a demand zone, and that's partially why. So, I just feel like it's going to go sideways for a while. Same thing with silver.

[00:33:00]Just a little, it's just a little bit of a boring spot, a little boring congestion over here, equilibrium, fair market value, black hole type stuff in context of the most recent major zone bounce, which was this daily 4hour supply up here, only to drop into a little bit, you know, a little bit weaker of a 4hour demand. And I say weaker because we bounced off a daily 4hour supply a little higher up. So we still got a bounce. We got a wick here that helped us push up. We went deeper into the 4 hour but did not pierce the bottom and we went up and back up into the same area. So um yeah, that's a mitigated supply zone.

[00:33:44]However, we are bouncing into it a second time. Yeah. And and we're getting another bounce. So, I just I don't like gold. I don't like it at all. At all, guys.

[00:33:53]Uh, talking about those yields again, we have had a little bit of a spike the last couple days back up to 4.604%.

[00:34:02]Elevated yields.

[00:34:05]If you see if if you start seeing yields balance out, that's where we could uh that's where we could have gold again start uh start possibly moving around.

[00:34:14]you start seeing the yields kind of base go sideways and it stops this up move because see it's just been going up and up and up and up. So if if at some point it starts to base out, go sideways, maybe you break a structure to the downside, that's where I think gold could start giving us another push up.

[00:34:35]Uh oil still on our way to that supply zone confluence area I've been talking about for the last week or so week and a half daily 4 hour.

[00:34:46]It's going to be this one up here 4 hour. So this is that 4 hour right here inside of the daily.

[00:34:53]That's I think the next checkpoint. Now again when I say checkpoint that's where we reevaluate things.

[00:35:01]Get rid of that. That's some old news down there. Newly created daily demand down here. Newly created uh you know kind of an ugly 4 hour but it is a little bit of a zone in fact. Uh did I even want to keep that there?

[00:35:16]Uh yeah. Yeah.

[00:35:19]After the gap up. Yeah. And then you had a yellow candle. See I'll leave that there for now. Yeah. That's the next checkpoint for me guys for oil. 8861 for WTI.

[00:35:29]And we've already touched the daily on Brent. We haven't quite touched the 4 hour at 9179 just yet. And these are the CFD versions, guys. So, going to be a similar picture if you're a futures trader.

[00:35:42]Very similar over here as well. Crude oil. See, same thing. CL1 uh exclamation point. Got that supply there. And the Brent is the same same thing. Yeah, it's basically the same structure, guys. The numbers are different, but it's basically the same supply zone and supply zone structure, supply and demand zone structure, whether you're looking at the CFDs or the futures.

[00:36:04]So, we're currently bouncing on Brent, but not yet on WTI.

[00:36:10]So, a little bit more room to the upside, I think, for oil just from a pure supply and demand perspective. And not to mention, we're on day 10 right now of the spike uh strikes of the US ret US strikes back on Iran.

[00:36:27]Let me in fact, let me look at my Middle East notes. I wrote down Iranian officials claim most attacks were intercepted, but tensions remain very high. Now, that's their opinion, but guys, we've I've been watching all the sitcom videos showing that they've been blowing stuff up. a ton of stuff.

[00:36:46]So again, do we do we really care what they have to say at this point? I don't uh let's see oil volatile dollar firm as safe haven flows return. Remember the dollar is a safe haven currency. So in times of uncertainty, in times of battles, times of war, uh possible strength, but the data has come down. So that's why we looked at the dollar index just a minute ago. It's not going anywhere. So you got a little bit of a fight going on. You got geopolitical uncertainty which should put push money into this as a safe haven asset, but yet you have the weakening data that we just looked at over looked at over here. So it's two forces fighting against each other right now.

[00:37:27]Dollar's doing what? It's just going sideways. It doesn't know what the hell to do.

[00:37:39]And then yeah, gold bid as a safe haven though capped by stronger dollar. So that's part of the other issue with gold that we started to talk about earlier.

[00:37:45]The dollar while it is going sideways, it is still strong. Look at the strong uptrend. [snorts] It's not 100% uh opposite correlation, but when dollar's up, gold is down. When gold is up, dollar's down. Vice versa. Okay, it's not 100% correlation, but that's another reason why gold's not going anywhere. VIX elevated reflecting heightened caution. Okay. Yeah, I got all my notes here. Geopolitics is the dominant driver right now.

[00:38:14]Especially this week, guys, because we don't have any US dollar data. Zero.

[00:38:17]Like, this is the first week in a long time where we don't have not one red folder event for the dollar.

[00:38:27]So, yeah. Yeah. Uh, yeah. M bins 92.

[00:38:30]Yeah, just to finish my thoughts on gold. I just see it going sideways for a while. I have I'm I'm as neutral as neutral gets on gold and silver right now.

[00:38:41]Now, silver, if I'm just looking at the technicals, looks a little bit better on the bearish side because at least we have a lower a lower low over here.

[00:38:51]Daily chart got a low point here. The most recent low from Friday was lower.

[00:38:56]We don't have that on gold.

[00:39:01]See over here on gold we have a higher low. We still haven't broken through. So if anything technically I actually like the picture on gold bearish a little I mean silver bearish a little bit. But again fundamentals and the sentiments just not doing me any favors and uh the dollar strong which would appeal to the bearish look on this.

[00:39:23]So maybe if we get the Dixie to kind of break out of this nonsense, either have a big strong move down, strong move up, something to kind of shuffle things up because this right here, this is just that's pukefest. And and this isn't uncommon, guys. We have it back here.

[00:39:39]Had it a little bit more here.

[00:39:41]Obviously, this one's just taken longer before the uptrend because again, we've had all the negative data. So anyway, uh and then as far as the indices which do open here in 20 or 33 minutes, things are going sideways as well. Uh NASDAQ is uh down forming that double bottom yesterday.

[00:40:03]Uh or I should say Friday. I think that was Friday. Yeah. Dow Jones. This has been the one that's been the stronger of the indices because it's the old hand.

[00:40:11]It's the old money. didn't have to worry about all that sector rotation having a nice retracement over the last couple days, but so did we had the same thing back here only for it to just completely reverse, make another series of highs.

[00:40:24]So, going to be interesting to see how the indices open uh today. And as far as my outlook on the indices, let's see.

[00:40:33]Yeah, pretty well neutral on the indices, guys. Same thing. The data is just not in my favor strongly saying go out and buy this stuff.

[00:40:41]talking about the jobs market, labor data there, inflation, the growth numbers, sentiment combination. The technicals look good on this chart. You guys can see that from a mile away talking about the Dow Jones, but I just don't have the data to back it up. I don't have the I don't have a why.

[00:40:58]I don't have a why. Remember video video two, the why of trading, fundamental analysis. I don't have that. I don't have the sentiment confirmation. I don't have the smart money, dumb money confirmation.

[00:41:11]dumb money to be used as contrarian signals. Remember, because oftentimes dumb money and smart money are doing the opposite with the same asset.

[00:41:18]So, I just don't have that. Video two, video three. Uh anyway, I did want to go over here real quick to the bonds market, see what the uh Fed tool, Fed Watch tool has given us. Uh the next meeting we have is in 8 days. So, next Wednesday, we will have that pop on our agenda for the day. We are projected at an 83% rate to remain the same 350 capped at 375 guys on the interest rates uh with only a 16% chance of that 25 point hike. Now this thing's kind of shuffled between 10 and 16% over the last couple days. It's a very dynamic chart that you see this 16.6. If you look up on here an hour later it might say it might say 15.6. It might say 14%.

[00:41:59]It might say 17%. So it's very dynamic.

[00:42:01]I think this thing updates every 15 minutes or 30 minutes or something like that. Data as of 7:30. So, yeah.

[00:42:11]Okay. So, it looks like this thing updates every 30 minutes or so.

[00:42:16]So, that's so that's next Wednesday. So, likely a nothing burger, but we'll definitely be interested to see what Kevin Horse has to say. Huh. Talking about those uh talking about those uh task force, right? Right at Renor Renora. So that'll be next Wednesday. Stay tuned for that.

[00:42:35]What about September?

[00:42:37]September we actually have our first projected 25 basis point hike.

[00:42:45]375 capped at 400. Okay. 55% chance only a 35% chance to remain the same. But now we start creeping into a nine almost 10% chance of raising 50 points.

[00:43:00]So, it just depends. Now, what do you guys think? We just had a We just had a inflation uh cooling.

[00:43:10]We just had a cooling inflation number.

[00:43:12]So, I'm sure that's also going to tie into the Fed's decisions. Remember, coming back over here to CPI.3% miss. 4.2% was the previous number, guys. We dropped all the way to 3.5.

[00:43:24]That is a 7% decline. they had already priced in a4% decline which was a very strong showing but then it went.3% lower than that. So this is a very good look for the CPI. If we go to the data itself inflation numbers CPI okay obviously we did have that last three uh uh periods that last three uh periods where we did have the spikes that pushed us over 4.2%.

[00:43:53]But that was just a huge drop. I mean there's your re there's your forecast that red dot and then there is the actual which is the top of the blue bar.

[00:44:00]So that's a very strong look. Now we're still elevated. We're still sticky relative to the last year or so.

[00:44:08]But we're nothing like we were [clears throat] five years ago.

[00:44:14]Back when we was up in the sevens and the nines was it?

[00:44:20]Guess that's as far back as I can go.

[00:44:23]Okay. Remember we were almost we were at 7.7%.

[00:44:27]October 2022 that was still coming off the uh let's do this. I want to go do this minus uh let's uh let's go.

[00:44:43]Oh no. I want to do this years 2022.

[00:44:51]I want to go back in time. All right, let's go back in time a little bit.

[00:44:56]7.7.

[00:45:00]I guess I can only go back to October.

[00:45:02]Anyway, that was when we were coming off of the coming off of the COVID. Now, this says 7.7, but at one point we're at 9%. So, I can't go I'm sorry. I thought I could go further back on this chart, but apparently not. So obviously down quite low since the, you know, since the overall start of that nonsense, which is good. It's a good picture.

[00:45:25]But data is everything. Telling you guys, this data is everything over here.

[00:45:30]But yeah, just go back to the chart itself.

[00:45:34]Just nothing. In fact, I need to pull on because this thing doesn't put Switzerland on here for some reason. So I need to go check the box. Yeah, even with that and that, this is it. Now to uh Wednesday, tomorrow's inflation numbers. That's what I wanted to look at was the British pound because we did have the unemployment rate. So, I'll look at that in a second. The biggest thing of the week, guys, and I know I mentioned this yesterday to me is the ECB rate decision on their end because they're they're projected to remain the same. Could be a nothing burger, but it is going to be interesting to hear what uh what the governor or what the ECB president Lagarde says. She's pretty well adopting Kevin Worsh's style from what it sounds to me like. I mean, she was basically speaking his language in Portugal when they had their central banker summit just a couple three weeks ago, whatever it was. So, it's going to be interesting to hear what comes out of her mouth. Okay, let's go back to the uh data because I want to look at the UK since they had their uh cooler unemployment rate today.

[00:46:30][snorts] So, 60%.

[00:46:33]And I do believe their previous was Yeah, their previous was a bullish number as well. So that's at least two straight periods where their unemployment rate has dropped also. Now remember their unemployment rate is high. That's a lot higher than ours.

[00:46:48]They had a they had a 0.1% cooling but they were at 5%. So I'm sure they're and by the way they had their new prime minister start yesterday. So let's like oh I got to get out of here guys. Uh remember that. So there is a little bit of uh turmoil going on. I I don't want to call it turmoil, but a little bit of uncertainty going with the with the Brits over there right now. There's the BXY, the British pound index. You can see we had a big ugly drop yesterday. Um uh the prime minister, new prime minister, uh uh Andy Bernham is his name, and he's already gotten five at least five of his cabinet positions filled. I I in fact, I need to go study their names just so I can understand them a little better myself. But uh pound dollar just had a big ugly drop.

[00:47:35]Let's see. Let's go over here to 1 hour.

[00:47:37]Okay, big ugly drop. And then we just saw the Footsie. It had a drop as well.

[00:47:42]It's just uncertainty, guys. Now, it's rebounded pretty nicely and partly because it bounced into a demand zone confluence that I was or demand zone I was possibly interested in buying, but because of the uncertainty of the incoming administration, I was just a little uncertain about pulling the trigger. But as you can see, look what happened. This is a this basically a was it a two-hour?

[00:48:05]Yeah, two hour, four hour. Yeah, four hour demand zone I was looking at [snorts] for possible buy. White line there, which means I think I drew up a 30 minute confluence at the bottom. And look at that.

[00:48:18]Pushed in. But that's just too many candles to the left for me. Yes, it was giving me a bullish bias, but it's just wicks and elbows, knees and elbows everywhere. And oh, by the way, we did buy uh uh bounce into that supply, so didn't want to take a chance on it. I just felt like everything was basically inside of a phone booth and I ignored it. We still got a little bit of a rejection from it. Anyway, the one constant thing about British politics is Larry the cat that lives at uh 10 Downing Street, the the resident mouse catcher.

[00:48:53]He's seen that cat has seen now seven prime ministers come through. He's been there since 2011 guarding the areas, the grounds. It's kind It's the funniest thing you'll ever see if you just go type in Larry the Cat uh at 10 Downing Street. [laughter] All right, guys. I got to get out of here. Uh do you think the midterm coming soon will affect the Fed? I don't think President Trump cares at this point. You know what I mean? Uh yeah, he wants to leave a legacy, but he's just trying to he's just trying to get this nuclear war out of the hands of Iran. It's already shattered. But e every time they've e even since uh operation midnight hammer dropped at the end of last summer, last summer for me because I know we we got different hemispheres on here. Uh last what was it? September or whatever.

[00:49:42]September, October. Uh they started they they they turned right around and tried rebuilding it. So he's just trying to get that all settled.

[00:49:51]I know he wants to win the midterms as far as the Republicans, but I think he's committed. I think he's guys, you can love him, you can hate him. He's just trying I think he's just trying to do the right thing. Now, you can question his morals, you can question this, question that. Uh if I got attacked by the media my whole life, I'd be attacking them, too. So, when people say, "Oh, he's he's horrible the way he talks about people." This and that.

[00:50:14]Yeah. Well, go live his life.

[00:50:17]Gettingounded constantly. Used to be the darling of the media back in the 80s and 90s. But no, soon as he turns to politics, everybody that loved him flipped. So, it's just I don't know. I don't get it. I don't get into that that kind of stuff. Uh I don't think he cares. I think he just wants to get the war settled. Um get oil prices down and uh you know, get back to the get back to the stock market rising because that's obviously a very big important thing for him. And uh to be honest, the Congress here just needs to do their jobs, start passing some of these bills. There's some good stuff out there. They just got to get it passed. Everybody needs to quit fighting like brothers and sisters and go out and do their jobs. So that's my thoughts on it. limit their terms, ladies and gents, whether left or right.

[00:50:58]Get them the hell out of there when they start getting into the 70s. I mean, that's ridiculous. So, anyway, guys, I got to go. I got a meeting. I'll try to give you guys some more time, extra time tomorrow. Um, have a wonderful day. Stay safe out there. Please like, share, subscribe, and uh yeah, I'll watch this pound dollar for you, uh, Andrea, and see if there's a possible trade because that's the only thing I see right now outside of maybe Euro dollar, but I would probably stick with pound dollar.

[00:51:23]Uh, not financial advice as always, but that's probably number one on my personal watch list. Take care.