AI Financial Melt-up

追加: 2026-05-28

[00:00:00]It is May 22nd. Our sponsor today is Alta Vista. And if you go to altavista.com, it takes you to Yahoo search. I really don't like the phrase if you know, you know. Because I hardly ever know. But if you don't know what Alta Vista is, I'm not going to cover it today. Our merch today, you can go to Russell Brand Athletics. You can get those kind of clothes on Walmart.com.

[00:00:22]And it isn't made by It is not made by Russell Wilson, just to be clear. Sports news from Sam's ABS. Okay, so we missed a day. AB as got outs skated from the against the Knights. Thunder might not lose again as they beat up the Spurs and Wimi. And I think he's completely wrong about that. Mar, he wants Oh, this is today's news now. Come back from ABS and they'll win and cover the negative 1.5 on the puck line. It's pretty incredible that the Cavs lost the entire Eastern Conference Finals with eight minutes left in the first game. And that is pretty incredible. They from the time that I turned on the game, they I I got the stats. They went 42-1 in the score differential there. Uh Sorsby was the University of Cincinnati quarterback last year, hit the portal, goes to Texas Tech, gets busted for sports bidding, and he betted on games he was on the team as well as niche sports. I don't have the number in front of me, but if you know Soresby, then send him the 1-800 don't gamble number.

[00:01:24]And um then he gave me an update. Emily Kaplan from ESPN reported Macar won't play tonight. So he still thinks the ABS win big. And there we go. There's sports news. The other day he mentioned Ryan Day and I told him I don't know who that is. And I thought he was talking about Carson Dailyaly. So, we might get a Carson Daily um video sometime not related to sports. Our references playlist, if you never really look at the channel, there is a playlist for references and that's just a bunch of things that came into planning or ideas or are referenced. Again, references while doing the videos. So, if you're looking for anything that actually is interesting and isn't just me, um, or things that you are like, "Hey, I really want to know more about this," then that's the place to go. I It's hard to really point out like how much I don't agree or do agree with something in a references. Uh, let's see. The references are not like, "Hey, I agree completely with this person." That's probably the best way to put it. they are a certain amount of the ideation that gets a lot of these things going.

[00:02:32]So, Google had their like IO conference or whatever it is. They announced a bunch of new stuff. They really the only thing I've noticed so far is they made it um more expensive for their $20 tier and they changed the background on their video or on their website when you go to gemini.com. Now it looks cooler, I guess. So, as always, I am trying to have Gemini help run my life. I started using the live mode a little bit. So, if you don't know what the live mode is, it's where you can press a button and Gemini will be like, "Hi, hello." And you can talk to it and it'll give you answers as if you're talking to someone.

[00:03:14]The first thing I wanted to mention about that and I don't know where this came from but the expectation is that I think it was like 80 to 90% of Gen Z uh people Gen Z generation will say that they would call an LLM a friend by I think it was 2028.

[00:03:37]So, a lot of Gen Z will call LLM will say LLM of one kind. Like Gemini is one of their friends. And I think uh you should really I I've got enough friends and if you want to talk to someone, just pick up the phone and talk to them and you'll have a friend. That's a hard skill these days, I guess, but it's really not that hard. Just like no one does it. I don't know why we're afraid of talking to people as much as we are cuz really it's a good thing to just remember, you know, no one really wants to talk about anything interesting. So, as soon as you ask them something about interesting about their life, they want to talk to you about something that's interesting to them. I tried to use live mode and compare it to like a therapist or a counselor. And most of what it did was say, "Wow, that sounds really hard."

[00:04:23]Or validate things in my life. Oh, like that that seems like it might be not stressful, but like might be important to you or whatever. Do you want to explore that more? And that was really what it did for the most part. Or it would say, do you want to continue talking about that or do you want to talk about this? And the AI and we'll talk about this I guess as our bigger topic today but AI at times gets touted as oh it should be at a PhD level of responses and thinking and I can understand that live mode has to happen faster. However, this is not PhD level of work for sure. And I don't even know if it's like out of college adequate level of work for a counselor.

[00:05:10]But it might be good. Maybe that's what the PhD level says is keep it simple and just validate and then ask how they feel or want to talk about it more. I used it for some work planning, the talking like talking out loud like it was a co-orker and that was useless. And I always say I'm going to read the script that it gave me for the day and then I usually interrupt it. I'm going to I'm going to try I'm going to try and I'm even going to say like I'm going to try and do the parts that it adds in uh because sometimes it gives me sound effects and I'll just try and do those. So our topic today is the com era as a economic bubble versus the technology. And this is something we've talked about and touched on, but not nearly as much as this script. So, think back to the dot crash. A lot of people misunderstood what happened in the early 2000s.

[00:06:03]The.com bubble wasn't a bust because the internet went away. Obviously, the internet changed the world. The tech was real. The bust happened because the economics made absolutely no sense. You had companies with zero revenue buying Super Bowl ads and burning through venture capital like it was firewood.

[00:06:19]That is exactly what we're looking at right now with AI. The technology isn't going anywhere. But the current financial models, they're stuck. They're sucking cash at an astronomical rate.

[00:06:30]Ch-ching. It's a sound effect cash register or subtle dramatic beat. Dum dum. Let's look at the biggest player in the room, Open AI. Notice how quiet Sam Alman has been recently. There's a reason for that. First, the competition has caught up. J GBD is facing massive pressure and in many benchmarks getting blown away by models like Gemini and Claude. The bigger issue is the cash furnace.

[00:06:53]Training and running these massive models costs billions. There are serious estimates circulating in the tech and financial sector suggesting that without another infusion of capital, chat GPD's current operational runway might be as short as 9 months. So what's the endgame when the venture capitalism drives up and the commute compute costs pricing?

[00:07:14]ads. Prepare yourselves because for these massive LLMs to survive, we are likely looking at a future where chatbt needs to run advertisements just to keep the servers on transition music. I don't know what that would sound like. And this cash crunch isn't just an open AI problem. It's an industrywide reality. I don't know what transition music would be there. Everyone is looking for a sust sustainable business model. Which brings us to an interesting wild card. Grock and the Elon Musk ecosystem. Gro is deeply integrated into that network. And with ongoing rumors and speculations about a potential SpaceX IPO down the line, we might finally get an transparent look at the real financial picture of how these massive tech and AI integrations are actually being funded on the back end. When a company goes public, they have to open the books. And that might be the moment the broader market wakes up to the real cost of artificial intelligence. Music swells slightly.

[00:08:07]The bottom line is this. AI is going to change the world just like the internet did. But the companies building it right now, a lot of them aren't going to survive the economic reality check that is upcoming. So, first I tell Gemini like, "Hey, try and find, you know, I give it I give it videos, uh, like YouTube videos. They can go and find them and look through them of my specific videos." And I say, "Try and match my tone or my voice or the style of the channel." And never has there been a chuch-ching or music swelling.

[00:08:34]So, I don't know where it gets that from. Uh SpaceX the the IPO process is like really going and we can talk about that one but by the time we talk about it it'll be long gone. Um IBIDA whatever earnings before debt and taxes and interest etc. That is an interesting thing to go look at for what is being touted as SpaceX is a great um investment. So, that's something we won't get to because by the time that matters, it'll be uh by the time we could, it'll be long gone. But that's uh the acronym and plus SpaceX is what you go find news on if you Google that.

[00:09:16]XAI was brought into XAI/GROK was brought into SpaceX. So that a that IPO filing, all those financials that have to come out prior to actually putting it on the stock market, that's going to give some insight into how much it's really costing to train and run these models. They're burning cash. Like the the script is getting that right. I wouldn't say running through cash like a fire would. That that's not wordings I would ever use use. And then the other thing is um let's see where was it talking about prepare yourselves for ads. The ads are there. The ads are coming. They're there. Some estimates say I think it was 50.

[00:10:02]It must have been million $50 million uh a quarter from ads is what they expect they could get on chatpt which that's tons of cash for them. Helps them get to where they really need to go. Now, Sam Altonman being quiet, there's not a ton of him talking, and that's because right now when people open their mouth and say AI is good, people boo them as we saw with all of the graduation ceremonies that mentioned it. And I think it's really funny like how many of them just kept plowing away with vote, but it's really good, guys. And just kept getting booed. I think that happened in two or three of the videos I watched. And one of them um I think it was the former CEO of Google I I think it's Eric Schmidt said he kind of transitioned to like but we still need people and people are the future or something like that. He kind of did recover very well once you've realized like I'm just up here getting booed about something I thought people would like.

[00:11:06]And if you've never seen it uh let's see what is it? Don't you people have phones? quote from Bethesda, Blizzard. I think Blizzard, they were going to release a new Doom game. They hyped it up. They were doing their big conference and then the game was a mobile game and everybody booed.

[00:11:26]And the presenter, his response was, "Don't you guys have phones?" Like, not not really clearly understanding.

[00:11:35]Um, that's that's not what they're caring about, man. and they didn't come here to learn about mobile games cuz those are garbage to them. Previews, flock cameras, that's a big one. I hope we can get to that. A AI tokens, the sales pitch there. That's uh why can't I remember his name? He's in the references.

[00:11:54]Bo Mitter, Bell, I'll uh in fact, I'll pause right here for a second. Boar.

[00:12:01]He's got a pretty good one that's recent on AI. Mark Anderson accidentally told the truth about AI. That's two hours ago.

[00:12:12]Wanted to do a Star Wars episode on Rogue One and that was to explain to Sports News Sam what happens in that movie. He doesn't really love Star Wars. He's not a big Star Wars guy. And I think I mentioned also Carson Daly. I don't think we'll ever get to the the biography video of that. You never know. And then I think I've mentioned it. Crime doesn't pay, but Botney does is a YouTube channel.

[00:12:42]And he really hates on yards and grass and how they suck up money. And I was wondering to myself if he has children.

[00:12:50]That doesn't make it better. I don't disagree with him that they like suck up money in water. However, when you have kids, you're like, "Hey, it's playing on grass." And it is a nice picture in your mind to see a kid playing on grass. And I like we go to sports, we watch people play on grass. It's it's not like something deeply in tune to our nature like oh this is how we evolved as humans is to watch watch sportsing happen on grass. Uh however I you know it is it is for some reason um enjoyable to a lot of people and I don't like I'm not just saying kids and I don't really think that's the purpose of spectating sports.

[00:13:26]Obviously, you know, right now you should go watch the ABS and there's no reason to watch basketball right now.

[00:13:31]The Lakers and the Nuggets are out of it.

[00:13:34]Well, okay.