Oil Prices May Shock the Stock Market Again, Says Macro Veteran Jim Welsh

Oil prices may bounce back toward the mid-70s due to a projected shortage of approximately one billion barrels since February, cushioned by strategic petroleum reserve releases, which could trigger a 10% S&P decline if oil rebounds; simultaneously, CPI is expected to dip below 3% by year-end as oil prices decline and baseline values adjust, potentially reducing Fed rate hike expectations and creating market vulnerability.