Wall Street Just Sent A Massive Memory Signal

[00:00:00]Hey guys, welcome back. If you were following the news today or if you were tracking your portfolio, it was probably hard to stay away from one singular news story. It seemed like this event and this story absorbed every single headline. Whether I was looking at Wall Street, Barons, Market Watch, you name it. It was all focused on this one story. The entire retail crowd, all of the financial pundits were completely distracted by this single massive liquidity event today that happened. Of course, I'm talking about the NASDAQ trading debut of the SpaceX IPO. And remember, coming into today, the consensus belief by all the financial analysts and all the news was that this records shattering $75 billion issuance, it was going to completely suck the oxygen and the liquidity out of the tech sector. But you know what, guys? That just didn't happen today. Because if you look at where the largest institutional block trades actually occurred, where they crossed the tape during today's session, it held a completely different strategy. Something else emerged.

[00:01:02]Overall, the smart money isn't chasing retail headlines. They're actually positioning themselves aggressively right now for the brutal physical realities of AI clustering. For the past year, the market ran on pure compute speculation, buying raw processing power and assuming that the rest of the data center topology would magically catch up. Today, that playbook, it's officially dead. The industry has squarely collided with the memory wall and processing cores are running so fast that they are starving for data. To scale further, the physical infrastructure, frankly, it has to change. And we're seeing hyperscalers do that right now with very creative architecture plans moving forward. I'm going to share that in today's video.

[00:01:45]But we're also going to break down the exact lines in the tape, where the institutional capital is executing this structural shift today. We're going to I'm going to show you how the memory titans performed overall and where capital rotated in the market today as well. What what were some big stories that came out? One of them from one of the big trillion dollar memory cartels.

[00:02:07]one of the members of that the cartel group overall one of the big HBM players broke massive news not only today but also yesterday so we'll cover that on today's video and I also want to show you a report from UBS that gives a bullish sign for the memory sector moving forward so we're going to jump into all that all those stories we have a lot to cover on today's video so thanks for being with me if you haven't done it already though make sure you hit like make sure you hit subscribe to the channel guys let's start off and take a look at how Micron performed today overall so let pull that up. And if you remember in my video last night, I talked about that Micron had two kind of precise options for the way I thought it would open up and it would trade today.

[00:02:46]That one option was that I thought if we could get over the peak that we saw in the pre-market last night. Remember it got up to about 108 in the pre-market.

[00:02:56]That was a you know a pre-market high or an after hours high for the stock. If we could get over that, gap up over that at the opening and climb over the 109 mark and stay there within that first 30 minutes of trading, I thought the stock could maintain a thousand overall. Now, my fear was on the other side is that we would see some liquidity shakeout, some profit taking with the stock and it would probably pull back to a support level of 980. Honestly, we had a little bit of both because the stock did climb up over a thousand today. It got to a,2 inday high you can see on the right side of the screen. But every time it got up over a thousand, it just got pulled back. We saw some profit taking. We just saw a bit of trimming overall. But the good piece is we did find that support floor at 980 as I thought. You can see the stock trade. It it closed the day just about 982. We didn't really get much bur further below that. We did get down to 960 actually as the day says to the right here as the intraday low, but it came back to 980. So the good news is it looks like we have a structural floor again of 980 from the institutional whales. Can we hold that overall? But I think the piece that we have to acknowledge is that we just micron continued today. It just continued to catch brief waves of selling pressure.

[00:04:11]Institutional desks they adjusted their short-term exposure probably most likely ahead of the earnings print that's coming up in two weeks on the 24th. But we do have the options expiration date on the 18th next week for Micron. So we have to keep our eyes on that as well.

[00:04:26]But by no means is today a breakdown or a structural loss of momentum for this stock. In fact, in fact, in fact, look in the after hours below there. We're up almost 1%. Another $8 on top on top. The stock is trading right about 990 overall. So I think for me, I lose no faith. I'm sure you don't as well in the channel. I know we have strong conviction in this community for Micron, but I think what we're seeing today is a completely natural institutional profit taking as desks they just took a bit of a breather from from the DRAM cycle from raw DRAM ahead of those upcoming catalysts that that uh we I mentioned just a moment ago. But I do want to show you something. I want you to notice where the capital actually rotated to today because they didn't pull a single dollar out of the memory ecosystem.

[00:05:12]Instead, leadership brought in aggressively right down the to the rest of the storage hardware. So, let me pull up and show you who the top gainers were today. So, this just shows this chart shows you stock top stock gainers today overall. And take a look at who's on top. Three of the top four today are members of the memory titans. They are the the fab four that we call on the channel. So, SanDisk, Seagate, and Western Digital, those three rounded out the top four right along with ARM overall. And SanDisk had a great day.

[00:05:41]Let me pull you up and just show you overall what Sandis did today because last night I mentioned I thought it had a chance to break through 2000 today and and in fact it did. It got up to 2021 today is the intraday high. Pulled back again. I mean I think we saw some profit taking here as well but the stock moved 90 $98 today on top of the $200 gain day we had yesterday. It's been a strong couple days for SanDisk. I'm sure each and every one of you holders out there are feeling really happy heading into the weekend with the gains that we've seen over the last couple of days and the fact that it's sitting about 980 right now with another $15 in the after hours getting close again to that $2,000 mark. So, this is perfectly in line with all the price targets that we know for this stock. It's just really nice to see it perform the way it did today. And if we jump back over, Seagate had a great day. I just want to call that out because is up by $63 today over 7% 931.

[00:06:39]It's getting close to that thousand mark that thousand price target that most analysts have for Seagate. Western Digital up over almost $34 today, over 6%. Really nice to see this stock climbing as well again. So, the Storage Kings had a couple of great days, but if you look down the list, you can see it is taken up by stocks that we talk about on this channel. ARM obviously had a strong day, but you can take a look. We had the optical players. Lmentum was on here. Coherent Corning had a nice day.

[00:07:06]It's not listed here as well, but Fabernet also another optical player had a strong day across the board today. We had a power player in GU for Nova. So, pretty much it was an AI infrastructure stack or an AI infrastructure kind of day across the board for the sector. Why did storage titans catch such an aggressive bid today overall and and uh with capital flowing to them? And I think it's this reality is that the institutional market is finally starting to realize that the AI narrative it's entering a massive physical expansion phase. And you can't you simply cannot run next generation AI clusters on HBM alone. You're going to need a combination of HBM you're going to need NAN flash storage. You need it all to run what is needed in these in this buildout for these AI clusters. The massive amount of memory demand that they have. So I think that was the recognition today that was why we saw a lot of capital just rotate back into the other members of the Fab 4 besides besides Micron. But if you also want to understand just how data hungry the memory sector has become across the board, I think we have to look at a few stories today I want to share that are coming out of one of the undisputed leaders. Another, as I mentioned in the beginning, a a member of that trillion dollar cartel. Of course I'm talking about SKH Heinix. They they dropped a couple headlines today that I think I need to share with each and every one of you guys on the channel. The one we've been talking about for a while is when will they list their ADR? So, they finally dropped it today. They went with the NASDAQ across the board. So, they're going to list, you can see SKHIX picks NASDAQ for the US share listing. If I scroll down below, the company intends to list as early as August. So, as we get closer, we can talk about the impact of SKH Heinix joining the NASDAQ. What do we think that what will do across the board for just liquidity in general? How will that impact the other memory players? So, it'll be a good story for us to share for another time, but I think this is something that hit today that's important to share across the entire community. And the other one was a story yesterday that I just didn't get a chance to get to, but you can see that SKH their shares rebound to report of them tripling wafer capacity. So, if we scroll down here, their shares reversed early losses. This was on the 11th. So this story was shared on Thursday. Early losses and advanced on Thursday following a report that the memory chip giant planned to triple its wafer capacity in the coming decade. You can see down here below the chairman overall it said that it'll triple its wafer capacity by 2034 to meet the surging demand for advanced memory chips which are crucial we all know for AI uh for AI development and deployment. So those are big stories that came out for SKH Heinix. I think the fact that was a pretty much a big bombshell that they're going to triple their way for supply and for me in particular the 2034 date is key because I know there's concerns with this sector around supply glut. We have seen kind of in the past what has happened when there's been a tremendous amount of supply in the market and it's all feeding into that boom bus kind of mentality in my opinion the old mentality from the memory sector but 2034 is a good way out o overall we're talking about eight years from where we are today and I think honestly I think where we're seeing right now that this this memory supply will continue to be constrained for years to come. I think no question many analysts will say 28 29 we will not see any supply come online from all these fabs that are being built right now until then but remember we're going to shift into the agentic phase we're going to shift into edge there's so many more demands on memory and different opportunities to drive kind of uh more demand for memory so I think we will see an ongoing constraint for memory overall and I'm not concerned about it in the least bit for the next couple years but there was a story that came out that I mentioned I teased it in the beginning about hyperscalers trying to to figure their architecture changes overall because what most retail crowds are missing is that HBM capacity like for what Micron or what SKH or Samsung produces we know that's completely spoken for and it's hitting strict physical thermal boundaries right now at the pack at the packaging layer. So hyperscalers they're being forced to completely rearchitect their system and I want to share a story that came out yesterday. I also didn't get a chance to get to it, but it was kind of an interesting story as I've been digging in and reading to it and uh reading about it and it's all Google's partnership with Samsung. You know, they're partnering with them to make their nextG chip, but it's an interesting arrangement. I want to share it with you and then give you kind of my thoughts on it across the board. But you can see that Google's in talks with Samsung to manufacture part of their next generation AI uh AI processor.

[00:11:54]So Google plans to use TSMC to make the main computing part of their tensor processing unit named named code named icefish and they're going to use Samsung to produce the component that helps connect it connect it to memory using their two nanometer production technology. So that's the report. So that's a very different approach overall on how they're how they're using two different manufacturers for one particular chip. I haven't seen that yet. I don't know if anybody else has.

[00:12:22]you can drop it down in the comment below. But when I read that, I thought that was kind of an interesting strategy. Google's going to execute a kind of this highly sophisticated split die manufacturing strategy. They're going to use TSMC the 1.4 4 nanometer nodes strictly to build raw compute logic. But then they're going to lean they're going to they're going to split completely split the die and they're going to lean on Samsung and their two nanometer foundry to build a separate dedicated piece of silicon exclusively to handle the high-speed memory input output connectivity. When tech giants are forced to engineer entirely separate silicon just to handle data movement, it proves that the bottleneck has expanded across the entire memory fabric. This layout triggers a massive downstream demand wave for ultra- low latency enterprise flash commanded by SanDisk and the massive multietabyte hard disks that are built by Western Digital and Seagate. As AI training models, they transition into global scaling and mass inference. They generate an absolute ocean of enterprise data that must be permanently stored, indexed, and cached.

[00:13:29]The smart money isn't viewing this as a zero- sum game. They know that Micron sold out capacity is the rising tide that lifts the entire sector. So they are shifting and rotating capital to these other players right now to essentially lock down the full hardware pyramid. And we're seeing this structural thesis from memory. It's we're seeing it in a lot of ways is not just supported by the price action that we've seen this week. It's also been confirmed by massive blockbuster institutional data that's been crossing the wire because just today UBS they officially ripped up their old models and issued a major upgrade to its global wafer fab equipment spending forecast.

[00:14:08]The bank explicitly stated that the semiconductor industry it's in its early stages of a generational super cycle.

[00:14:15]one that they project will skyrocket total wafer equipment to an unprecedented 247 and a half billion by 2028. So I want to pull up that article and walk through it together with you because I just want to show you how drastically smart money is moving ahead of the retail crowd. So let's pull that up. It was posted on on it was actually posted yesterday on investing.com but it says buy these seven stocks as wafer fab equipment is still in early early innings of super cycle.

[00:14:44]And what the author says is is what I confirmed earlier that they believe it's early innings and that it could push to 247 billion by 2028. But look at how they they move it each individual year.

[00:14:55]They actually lifted their estimate this year to 147 billion. It's up 27% year-over-year. Next year they're moving it to 198 billion for uh and then finally in 2028 247 a.5 billion. That implies as the article says a 25% increase. The reason right below memory is the primary driver. DRAM spending alone expected to reach 74 billion next year up 42% from this year while Foundry and Logic Wafer Fab equipment is forecast to climb to 140 billion by 2028. And if I scroll down, the article does pull out call out a few stocks in particular that are that we should keep our eye on as well. And you know that article said it mentioned seven. I want to call out a few. The first one is applied materials and the next one is Lamb Research. They're saying that with bank raising the they've raised their price targets. So for applied materials they've gone to 570 for Lamb Research 375. They're citing their leverage to DRAM uh by the deposition and the etch dynamics that these companies have. They also have listed KLA down below. they've raised their price target to KLA, but the analysts view this stock as relatively expensive compared to the other because of it. It's it's at 26 times uh the price today is at 26 times 2028 earnings, leaving less room for upside overall. So, that's a big article. I think it's it's what I mentioned in the beginning. It's a bullish sign for the for the memory sector, that jump that we see up to 247 a.5 billion by 2028. And to put this in perspective, the Wall Street consensus is completely asleep at the wheel because right now it's trailing UBS's forecast by over 30 billion for 2028.

[00:16:40]FABs simply do not commit to this scale of capital expenditure unless long-term demand is bulletproof. In fact, UBS noted that customers have begun providing equipment suppliers with eight quarters of visibility, a level a level of forward commitment analysts have never seen in nearly 30 years of covering this sector. And to see how capital is being deployed across the tape today, I want to pull up those equipment suppliers that we can look at together because I want to look at how institutional desks and show you how they aggressively accumulated to towards toolmakers controlling the deposition and the etch dynamics overall. So, let me pull up the first one. I want to take a look at Lamb Research as we mentioned.

[00:17:19]I want to go through all of them across the board that we talked about. But you can see that Lamb had a strong day up over 1%. It was up, you know, at $4. The after hours, we're seeing a move a little more over $3, very close to its 52- week high. 52 52- week high is 373.

[00:17:35]So, the stock closed at about 367 today overall. We know that fabs rely on LAM's advanced etching tools to drill the ultra deep high aspect ratio channels required to scale dense 3D nan and next generation DRAM arrays. Citing this exact leverage to to DRM spending, UBS maintained its conviction and they raised their price target to 375 for LAN. And if I want to take a look the next one, which is applied materials, you can see applied materials had a bit of a stronger move across the board today over two and a half% up 14.5 dollars. In the after hours, we're seeing more again up over three $3.75 closing at 571 again over the 52- week high right now in the after hours what we're seeing. So for applied materials, they are an absolute gatekeeper of precise material deposition, allowing fabs to insulate dense memory cells at the atomic level. UBS singled out applied materials as the prime beneficiary, explicitly raising their price target to 570. So guys, in my opinion, both of these price targets are a bit behind. I think we'll see them get moved again. We know that the infrastructure is going to continue to get built out at such a high scale. the demand for the memory, the demand for the wafers overall, and these are the two prime companies in addition to KLA that are that are right there and an excellent choice overall. Let me pull up KLA for the last one. KLA was up over 5 a.5% today as you can see, closed at 25462, up over almost 13.5 dollars.

[00:19:10]Again, common theme in the after hours, they are moving as well. You can see their uh their 52- week high is significantly higher. And there's a reason you see 52-W week high at 2400 and and they're trading at two at 254.

[00:19:25]So we know back in May they announced a 10 for one split. Today was actually the day that it took effect. It was the effective day of their 10 for one forward split. So that's why we see that 52- week high so high overall. And I do think it's note it's worth noting that UBS they raised their price point for KLA but they said it's a they mentioned it as relatively expensive compared to the others suggesting that the immediate upside might be slightly more capp compared to the raw muscle of applied materials and lamb research. However, as multi-d packaging like Google's Ice Fish becomes standard, chip complexity skyrockets. It presents severe yield risks. Fabs are fundamentally forced to run KLA's extreme subnanimeter uh uh metology and process control tools to inspect these features. The equipment boom isn't just about raw factory capacity. It's the foundational it's the foundational enabler in making the entire memory expansion physically possibly possible overall. When you step back and you look past the high-profile noise of a retailheavy liquidity event that we saw today with the SpaceX IPO, I think it becomes crystal clear what the true institutional blueprint actually is. Capital is systematically cornering the physical fundamental layer of the AI of the artificial intelligence trade.

[00:20:44]The historic record-breaking data from UBS that upward revision, it proves that the actual fabrication capacity is moving into a unprecedented multi-year expansion phase specifically engineered to feed a massive memory structural deficit. The aggressive broad market accumulation that we saw today with SanDisk, Western Digital and Seagate, it shows us that the smart money is moving down the hardware stack to capitalize on massive data caching and enterprise tiers that are required for fullcale AI deployment. And the steady accumulation of tool makers like applied materials, Lamb Research and Ka, it tells us that the industry is securing the baseline manufacturing gear required to build this future. the memory super cycle. It isn't a speculative narrative. It is an infrastructure certainty backed by multi-year visibility and tens of billions of dollars in committed capital. So track the physical layer. We need to continue to track the physical layer and the constraints, the bottlenecks that we see in the market.

[00:21:44]We'll have to continue to watch the institutional flows and the block trades in these markets and make sure they track towards the levels that we discuss. And we need to stay ahead of the news cycle and make sure we continue to look for signals in the market and see if we can identify where capital is rotating to next. Guys, this is market signal. I hope you enjoyed today's video. Drop a comment below. Let me know your thoughts across today's trade overall and what you took away from the video. But I appreciate you watching and I'll see you in the