BITCOIN HODLS 80K INTO THE WEEKEND! - Live Trade Analysis

追加: 2026-05-12

[00:00:02]All right, morning everyone from Zion National Park. It's my last morning here. And I'm about to get on the road headed to Bryce National Park next to do some hiking. Man, the last 2 days were absolutely insane.

[00:00:18]Um I got to post these awesome pictures to social media.

[00:00:23]And um Oh, I should pull them up. Um maybe on a map real quick as people are joining.

[00:00:31]Uh let me see.

[00:00:33]Um I know I'm not screen sharing yet.

[00:00:37]Let's go to maps.

[00:00:39]And uh Oh, how good is my internet?

[00:00:44]It's not even coming up.

[00:00:46]That sucks.

[00:00:50]Should come up eventually. All right, let me go to screen share.

[00:01:00]Map isn't coming up, but um Hm.

[00:01:05]I don't know why. By the way, I will be uh at this event at Observer Ranch in Colorado.

[00:01:11]In case anyone is interested. Now, check out Observer Ranch events. I will be at Master the Disaster event May 15th to 19th. That's where you can find me in uh in Colorado.

[00:01:29]But I am still in Utah. I have no idea what is taking it so long.

[00:01:33]It's really weird.

[00:01:34]All right, maybe I'll get to it at the end then. Let's go to the price of Bitcoin.

[00:01:38]The monthly chart. The monthly chart will not turn bullish until we get a green star candle next month and trading above $84,000.

[00:01:50]Uh once Well, maybe even $83,000. Once we're trading above $83,000 next month, the monthly chart will turn bullish. It would also have to close that way at the end of the month to stay bullish.

[00:02:06]Weekly chart, not a fan of this candle.

[00:02:10]This is a shooting star candle, but the MRI count remains bullish.

[00:02:16]And uh the last candle actually closed very bullish.

[00:02:21]Sun's in my face, so I have to do this.

[00:02:23]Uh closed last week's candle closed very bullish. It would have had a positive tone base volume.

[00:02:30]Uh you can't see it, but it is a positive tone base volume.

[00:02:33]Um the clarity act Uh you know, these aren't a bad thing necessarily.

[00:02:43]And I don't like the CMF. The CMF is a disaster.

[00:02:47]Oh, there's a tone base volume.

[00:02:49]It is bullish. Last uh yesterday and uh and so forth today, obviously.

[00:02:58]So, it is bullish. I would like for the weekly to get to an MRI top approximately 87,000.

[00:03:08]So, at 87,000 weekly top would be nice.

[00:03:12]Uh it would also align with the monthly uh green star candle because in order for us to get to an MRI on the weekly, we will be uh in next month's candle. So, this is uh sorry, this is weekly, right?

[00:03:30]Uh in order for us to get to an MRI top, we need like five more weeks.

[00:03:39]Yeah, so we'll be in June. So, this the this arrow should really be like here.

[00:03:46]Here.

[00:03:48]And um And I can like I guess redraw that. I like that one. I I called that one perfectly. So like here.

[00:03:57]Something like that. Probably even further than that. Probably a couple of weeks even down the road, but at least I slid them over a bit.

[00:04:05]Daily chart. Uh I really wanted us to get this candle with a warning sign uh in the 82,000-83,000 range so that we get the MRI top arrow.

[00:04:19]We're unlikely to get the MRI top arrow.

[00:04:23]If today's candle closes in this area, it'll be very difficult for the next candle to give us an MRI top unless we rally.

[00:04:32]Uh but if we do rally here and then we end up with a daily MRI top, it would be a daily MRI top in consolidation.

[00:04:42]And getting a daily MRI top in consolidation uh means there's likely going to be more upside. So, having a pullback yesterday actually sets us up nicely for more upside.

[00:05:06]The 4-hour chart looks great because that is an MRI buy candle. I looked at it this morning.

[00:05:13]Uh the MRI doesn't want to load for some reason.

[00:05:18]Let's try that again.

[00:05:20]There it is. Uh the 4-hour well, called the top almost perfectly. Missed it by one candle.

[00:05:27]And then the MRI buy is also pretty perfect. I guess you could say it missed it by one candle, but I wouldn't even say that. It's just a perfect buying opportunity right here on the 4-hour. And let's see if we can make it back to the swing high of 82,000 over the next day or two.

[00:05:47]What about the 1-hour chart?

[00:05:49]Any signals up here?

[00:05:52]No, missed it. Uh the 1-hour is usually very good for MRIs.

[00:05:58]Uh nice MRI buy down here and down here.

[00:06:02]And uh we can get a nice green star candle in a couple of hours from now.

[00:06:07]But, as you guys know, the weekends tend to be slightly bearish to neutral.

[00:06:20]So, I don't expect much this weekend, but I also think there is a chance that the war is going to resume with Iran.

[00:06:28]Though Trump is going to China and he may not want to that up. So, he may, you know, start the war next weekend.

[00:06:39]All right.

[00:06:40]Oil, the price of oil Mhm, hovering around 95.

[00:06:45]Uh that's okay. I still think that it's going to creep back up once uh US escalates with Iran one more time.

[00:06:54]On the cycle low, we still got to wait and see. I think we have to wait until we get to September to know whether the low came early this cycle or not.

[00:07:04]I think it did.

[00:07:06]And Bitcoin dominance is holding steady.

[00:07:12]Gold and silver continue their downtrend. We had a little bit of a rally, but gold needs to get up probably near 5,000 to break this downward cycle.

[00:07:24]And silver had a nice rally. Silver is about to break its cycle because it's Uh let me look at the daily here.

[00:07:37]Yeah, silver is breaking a cycle. So, let's see. Let's see what happens.

[00:07:40]We'll keep an eye on that next week.

[00:07:43]As you guys know, I am very bullish on the S&P 500 and I always was and I remain bullish on the S&P 500. Look at this massive candle today. We are at a new swing high.

[00:07:55]All-time high.

[00:07:56]Always all-time high in the S&P. What a rally. Wow.

[00:08:00]I still don't think it's going to save Trump's uh presidency.

[00:08:09]Correlation shot uh the software index made it back to its 38% Fibonacci, so keep an eye on the rejection. And Bitcoin came up just shy of its Fibonacci line.

[00:08:26]Somebody wanted me to take a look at the semiconductor index. We can do that.

[00:08:32]There is that keel chart. I'm still bullish.

[00:08:37]Uh looks good.

[00:08:41]SMH Thought I saw that.

[00:08:49]Yeah.

[00:08:53]Woah, look at the semiconductor index go.

[00:08:56]A very bullish chart on the weekly.

[00:09:01]Very bullish chart on the monthly.

[00:09:03]Green star.

[00:09:05]And very bullish chart. Nope. Third consecutive MRI top on the daily. So, I would probably take some profit here today and then come back after a little pullback.

[00:09:18]You can see how the last two MRI tops gave us a pullback and then you come back in a green star candle. So, I would be back on a daily green star candle and I would take my profit today.

[00:09:27]That's how I would be trading it.

[00:09:31]Let's look at natural gas.

[00:09:34]Surprised it hasn't gone up much.

[00:09:39]All right, just a few charts and then we got to go.

[00:09:42]Q U R E No idea what this is.

[00:09:47]Never heard of it.

[00:09:51]Uh wow, they were like on the brink of bankruptcy right here.

[00:09:58]And they got out of it that earnings.

[00:10:01]Well, good earnings. They beat earnings expectations, but they crashed.

[00:10:05]Man, this would have been a great trade back when I was trading earning strategies.

[00:10:10]And um Yeah, bullish on the daily.

[00:10:15]Bullish on the weekly.

[00:10:18]And probably neutral on the monthly.

[00:10:20]Yeah, neutral on the monthly.

[00:10:22]Could turn bear bullish next month.

[00:10:25]Weekly is bullish and daily it's at resistance, but it's few more days of bullish. I I I would hold off on that. Wait for a pullback first.

[00:10:36]Hey guys, I will be in Croatia June 5th to 7th.

[00:10:40]Keep that in mind. There is an event in Croatia.

[00:10:43]Probably my last Bitcoin related event because I want to retire. I'm still waiting for all of the evil people of BIP 110 to just go away or you know, fork into their uh maxi shitcoin.

[00:10:57]Uh so that Bitcoin price can rise again.

[00:11:01]And uh Bitcoin survival is at stake with BIP 110.

[00:11:05]Uh BIP 110 succeeding basically destroys Bitcoin.

[00:11:08]I'm not talking about it much anymore, but because I just really don't want to deal with the Bitcoin But just keep in mind anyone pushing BIP 110 is just an evil person.

[00:11:18]Uh That that that's my 10-year professional opinion.

[00:11:29]Uh this is the hike that I just did yesterday. It was grueling.

[00:11:33]Uh and this is the hike I did 2 days 3 days ago.

[00:11:37]And I did the Subway hike 2 days ago.

[00:11:41]So, 3 days ago I did The Narrows.

[00:11:44]This hike.

[00:11:45]Here.

[00:11:47]Um and yesterday I did this hike, Angel's Landing. Holy Uh Angel's Landing was crazy.

[00:11:55]I have like videos.

[00:11:57]So, you all you have to walk this.

[00:12:00]And then you have to walk this part.

[00:12:05]Uh is this the part with the chain?

[00:12:09]You got to hold on to the chain.

[00:12:10]Somebody died last month by uh losing his footing.

[00:12:15]It's um Let me see. Did my map show up yet?

[00:12:20]Yeah, here we go.

[00:12:22]Yeah, so these were the hikes that I did.

[00:12:25]Uh Angel's Landing right here.

[00:12:33]Yeah, that's the that's that final the final ascent where you're literally holding onto a chain link rope.

[00:12:46]Uh like a chain uh doing this final ascent.

[00:12:52]But before you get to that final ascent, you have to make it to the top Do you have to make it to the uh Scout's Lookout point which itself is not easy to get to.

[00:13:03]Uh yeah, this is that final stretch.

[00:13:06]You're like walking along this ridge. I mean, over here you don't have to hold onto the rope, but in some of these places uh you better hold onto that chain or you'll be this month's statistic. Yeah, this is basically the hike up here, up this mountain.

[00:13:23]Now, that's the that's just the last part. And you need a permit to do the chain part.

[00:13:27]They are very picky at who they give the permits to, so I was able to get the permit.

[00:13:33]Yeah, that's the chain part.

[00:13:35]Great hike.

[00:13:36]Great hike.

[00:13:38]And uh the day before I did uh Subway hike.

[00:13:44]That is here.

[00:13:48]This one?

[00:13:49]No, the Subway. Here it is. Now, to get to the Subway, you got to start here.

[00:13:55]You got to start at the Left Fork Trailhead.

[00:13:59]And um that itself is a It was like 2 and 1/2 hours before we got to the Subway. Now, this is the Subway. Once you get to the Subway, it's super cool.

[00:14:11]But to get to the Subway, that's a trek.

[00:14:14]And this is where the Subway is.

[00:14:16]And the Subway, I have a picture just like this.

[00:14:19]This is crazy. But imagine how fast water would be running to carve this out.

[00:14:25]So, that's why it's called the Subway.

[00:14:28]Uh And at the end, like I jumped in this water. It's like the coldest cold plunge I've done in a while.

[00:14:35]Natural one, too.

[00:14:37]So, this is the end of the You start at the Left Fork Trailhead and you end in the Subway.

[00:14:45]So, and then you have to go all the way back. So, that hike took about 6 hours in total.

[00:14:51]And uh Angel's Landing took maybe 3 and 1/2 hours.

[00:14:55]Uh they were both very hard.

[00:14:58]And then uh the hike 2 days ago was the Narrows.

[00:15:03]And the Narrows could be as hard or as easy as you like because it doesn't have an end point. You can literally walk forever.

[00:15:10]Uh and you walk in the water.

[00:15:16]Let me see. I have my own pictures, but these are Google pictures.

[00:15:21]Yeah, you walk in the water the whole time.

[00:15:26]The whole hike takes place in the river like this.

[00:15:29]And you know, you can walk for 6 hours and then you have to walk 6 hours back, right?

[00:15:35]Uh I walked about 2 hours and then 2 hours back. So, that was a 4-hour hike.

[00:15:43]But, started late. It was freezing in the morning, so didn't start till like after like noon.

[00:15:49]So, don't want to be out there at night.

[00:15:51]You also got to watch out for flash floods.

[00:15:54]Uh it's another dangerous hike if it starts raining because in some places you're stuck in between two vertical cliffs and if the water level rises, you got nowhere to go.

[00:16:05]You're basically the the water can get over your head.

[00:16:12]And uh And now I am off to Bryce National Park, which is right here.

[00:16:23]And I'll be hiking that tonight for sunset and tomorrow morning for the sunrise.

[00:16:29]So, one of the best national parks as well.

[00:16:32]And after that, I will head to Arches National Park, which is here.

[00:16:41]All right.

[00:16:45]Uh 10,000 on the S&P, probably by 2030.

[00:16:52]All right, I'm going to wrap this up.

[00:16:56]Just looking at your comments.

[00:17:00]Uh CLPT, all right, last stock I'm looking at.

[00:17:08]Uh bullish on the daily.

[00:17:12]Uh slightly bullish on the weekly.

[00:17:17]And bearish on the monthly, so do with that information as you like.

[00:17:34]Oh, Keel is the new Bitfarms. Okay, good to know.

[00:17:38]Or Bitfarms is Keel now.

[00:17:46]Ah, remind me to look at GDX next time.

[00:17:48]I don't want to look at any more stocks.

[00:18:00]Yeah, there are some good hikes in Arizona. You just got to make sure the weather is right.

[00:18:22]Well, I don't know what these people are like like once BIP 110 fails, I don't know what all of these evil people are going to do.

[00:18:29]Uh I mean, are they going to regroup and try again or are they going to actually, you know, grow a pair of balls and uh spin off into a shitcoin? I don't think they'll grow a pair of balls uh to to spin off into a shitcoin, so um I think they're just going to regroup and try again.

[00:18:44]Hopefully, they have less uh retards in their movement the second time around, but who knows, could be more.

[00:18:54]I mean, the more you look into it, the more it's an IQ test of understanding how Bitcoin works.

[00:18:59]And uh most people don't know how Bitcoin works.

[00:19:06]By the way, 90% of the people that have ever been on the Tone Vays YouTube channel don't know how Bitcoin works.

[00:19:12]And do with that information you can guess which people understand how Bitcoin works and which don't.

[00:19:21]But 90% that have come through my channel clearly never understood how Bitcoin works.

[00:19:25]All right, guys. Thank you all for watching and see you all on the next one.

[00:19:35]Gorgeous views behind me and all around.

[00:19:43]Give you guys one last look at the mountains right there.

[00:19:46]Right outside my cabin.

[00:19:48]Look at that.

[00:19:51]Look at that.

[00:19:51]Right outside my cabin.

[00:19:57]Really cool, right?

[00:20:00]Super cool.

[00:20:02]All right.

[00:20:03]See you all later, guys. I'm going to end the stream.