Jay Woods on Stock Market's "Run for the Ages" & Finding Quantum's "Floor"

Added: 2026-05-31

[00:00:00]change where we sit at records on the S&P 500, NASDAQ, you name it, we are at all-time highs. For more insight, we want to welcome in Jay Woods. He's the chief global strategist of Freedom Capital Markets. Jay, I'm going to ask you a question. I asked KG earlier today. What happened to Selen May and go away?

[00:00:17]>> I don't know. What did KG say? I I usually agree with KG. Uh no, what happened to Cell and May and go away?

[00:00:22]Well, maybe we go away at the end of May. We We shall see. But um my goodness, this has been a run for the ages. We're about to hit a 9-week winning streak in the S&P 500. You know how many nineweek winning streaks we've had? Just two. Uh 2023 and it ended at nine and then the great year of 1985. Uh you may not have been born, Diane, but I was alive and well and it was fantastic.

[00:00:45]uh we had a 12-week winning streak and the momentum that we continue to see on the earning side in the tech space is it's something that brings us back to the '9s and it's um >> I don't think it's going to stop anytime soon. It can slow and if it slows and gives back a little bit there's your seller may go away because the biggest stocks in the world have been lifting this market up and if they pull back 5% 10% micron comes in 10% is that a big story >> not really given its run but it will make headlines and it'll get people a little jittery uh so I expect us to >> lose a little this momentum now that earning season is almost overcom next week that's a big one um but for the most part. I think we're going to digest these gains and consolidate a little bit. Uh maybe get another 100 to 150 points out of this S&P 500 run to 7700 and then if we correct 10% from there, guess what? We're back to 7,000. And it's not a bad place to be. Uh but uh I don't think that this run is is going to end anytime soon. But I think >> war with Iran doesn't seem to matter anymore. I mean the latest headlines are that we're going to get this uhou for 60 days extension of the truth. It feels like kicking the can down the road, but what's your thoughts?

[00:02:04]>> Yeah. No, in the very beginning the the headlines got us jittery and we would react to them. Now you kind of just shake it off. Just just tell us when the deal is done. That's what we want to know. Um and it's all about the price of crude. Now it's finally getting back down 98. Let's see it at the pump. Can we please? But uh yeah, but uh the two earnings as far as the inflationary and the gas prices, Walmart, they had a somewhat interesting guide. Costco membership down at a 10-year low. Those are a a little backdrop of what the consumer is looking at. And maybe, just maybe, we're seeing a a slight change in spending, but it's been a stock-to-s story. And for the most part, uh, the consumer has remained resilient, stayed loyal to their brands, and continues to spend. So, right now, um, you know, we'll see what that unemployment number brings next week. But >> I'm glad you brought up the consumer because it's like, um, with, uh, for instance with Walmart, that did surprise me recently when they expressed some caution and being a little conservative, especially because that's not their normal period of their earning cycle when they're more conservative. They're usually more conservative at the beginning of the year. Costco. I was there yesterday and they're like, for those who are members, they're pushing the executives. They're like, "Come to the next level." I did. They always have good stuff. Um, but great call out there. Another thing you've been watching is transportation stocks. Tell me why you keep have your eye on.

[00:03:27]>> Yeah. Well, they it there's going to be a lot of puns in this. I apologize, but that just got a little derailed yesterday uh with the Union Pacific North Southern uh deal uh possibly uh getting a little pushed back, which I believe it should be. you have two of the three biggest railroads trying to merge. But when you look at CSX, NSC, Northwick, Southern, and Union Pacific, UNP, uh these stocks have not only had a slow and steady run, but they've broken out and they've broken out of tremendous areas. So to me, uh you want to ride the rails and you want to take this trade a little higher. Um it's it's actually very bullish for the overall market because it goes back to original Dow theory. the things that make the industrials, the things that take the the transports. Uh we're not seeing slowdowns there. And this all does tie into that AI infrastructure story. We are in an industrial revolution now building these data centers trying to get the tracks laid in this new economy uh which is obviously techdriven and uh you've seen it with the memory makers, the microns, the sandis, the seagates and now you're seeing infrastructure plays. Caterpillar has been on fire. Uh and when you look and you talk to the people that make the build, they have, you know, inventories are are low, the demand continues to be high, the backlog is tremendous. Uh so from a long-term perspective, if we can get through some of these big bumps, and they're big, uh with, you know, crude prices, inflationary concerns, and then put Kevin Worsh's stamp on what he wants to do, that to me is where we're going to see the summer slowdown because we could get jittery when Mr. Worsh gives his first speech, and we don't even know how he's going to communicate and see what's going to happen with that policy going forward. How much do rates matter now?

[00:05:15]Because even with rates where they are, they haven't derailed the momentum.

[00:05:19]>> No, they haven't. They've been steady and steady is not a bad thing, especially at this level. Uh the concern is and the the small caps have shrugged it off that if this inflationary path continues. If unemployment was rising, which everyone's expecting because AI is taking all these jobs, it's not right now >> overall. Um then we have concerns. But right now it looks like we can stay stable for longer. That's not a bad thing. And then if this subsides then maybe just maybe we can talk about cutting rates sometime maybe as early as December. I would be shocked uh absolutely shocked but sometime Q1 Q2 of next year.

[00:05:58]>> All right. You had your eye on transportation. Quantum is also taking a quantum leap. I'm not going to say pardon the pun. I meant that.

[00:06:05]>> All right. But where are you what are you noticing about the patterns there?

[00:06:10]How do you separate hype from opportunity?

[00:06:12]>> Two things. Uh one the charts uh these they had to run. They were parabolic back last uh June through November and you saw the regettis and the dwarves and yeah IBM too. Yeah. Cubid.

[00:06:26]>> Well IBM that we we'll touch on that real quick uh because I know we have limited time but the quantum stocks they broke down trends. They're back above 200 day moving average. So, as a technician, I see the floors in. This happened in Intel when the government took a position in it. It's a Trump trade. And if you've noticed, do you see Dell this morning? Uh, any stock that the government has been involved in or the Trump uh family has taken positions in, they tend to do well. I'm just going to leave it at that comment, but you want to see where the puck is with them because there is money to be made riding those coattails right now and quantum is the next thing. uh we've had gaps up, watch 200 day moving averages. If it breaks below it, then maybe something has changed. But I think the floor is in for them and then soon they'll be doing deals. And then the biggest stock in that group doesn't look like you're, hey, highf flyier. There's going to be momentum. The kids are going to be trading IBM. Uh but I didn't think they'd be trading Intel. I did not think Intel would be doing this. So look for IBM to have interesting conversations uh with partners they haven't had conversations with in the past. Intel had a conversation with Apple and the stock went up $10 that day conversation.

[00:07:35]Uh so there is a lot of hope and hype behind these stocks and IBM may fall into that category. Uh it's really an ugly chart but it's starting to get some legs and when you have that fundamental thesis behind it that the government's involved and contracts may go that way as a result. You you can come up with why that happens. But if you're looking to make money, I think the riskreward potential in these names uh is much favorable for a reward than a downside risk.

[00:08:05]>> All right, thank you Jay. That is Jay Woods, chief global strategist of Freedom Capital Markets. Our thanks to Jay for joining us as usual here at the big board.