Tracking showers and storms across Tampa Bay: Weather Impact Live

追加: 2026-05-19

[00:01:18]All right, good afternoon everyone. 4:31 our weather impact live. Seems like we just did this.

[00:01:24]>> Yeah, >> kind of.

[00:01:24]>> We've had a lot of fun today.

[00:01:26]>> Yeah. Uh well, tornado warning. We actually had two for the same cell, >> but thankfully no confirmed tornadoes >> at this point. No, we actually have heard of a little bit of damage to a house. Roof damage at least >> in the Hudson area in Pasco County. That is the area that the tornado came on shore. The water spout came on shore as a tornado warning today. So perhaps that is the case. We we don't know. It doesn't seem major at this point. We don't have too many details, but we'll be keeping an eye on that. Um, the the best threat for severe weather is now east of I75 and continuing to move further inland. We're not quite out of the woods for our inland count, especially Pulk and Highlands County, but the severe weather threat is low, at least for most areas at this point. The eastern part of the state over here, this these cells that are popping up now, they're going to have a pretty decent chance of at least making some decent hail, and that could give us some severe thunderstorm warnings. We just had one for a cell. This cell it right here actually. It's coming out of Lake Wales. It's right there.

[00:02:23]>> A little convergence right there, huh?

[00:02:24]Yeah. So, >> they that had a severe thunderstorm warning. And then notice how things are really filling in now for PK County. So, that area, say from uh Lakeland all the way down to Willow Oak and down to Barto. From that eastward, best chance for showers and storms. And some of those will be a little bit on the stronger side. What's coming across this northeastern part of Hillsboro now? Fona Sassa. Easy. Hard to say, harder to spell.

[00:02:49]>> Yeah, exactly. I think easier to say than spell, at least for me. But, you know, but >> hard to say, harder to spell.

[00:02:56]>> Exactly. Not easy either one, >> right? Uh that is um that's the back of the main line that was giving us a problem >> for sure. Yep. And and like I said before, we kind of broke it down into kind of three distinct areas. the first area that warrant the tornado warnings up in Pasco. The second area that was more a little further southward for Penllis County and then that third area and it still looks like there has yet been any rain in South Tampa and not much even in you know a good chunk of Tampa. Maybe Carolwood getting clipped a little bit Semino Heights areas like that but maybe New Tampa but certainly not you know certainly not in the Bayore area. Certainly not south of Gandandy that's for sure. So this uh there this does look like it's going to hold together enough to give Penllis County, southern Panelis some rain. I do think that happens. I do think it weakens. It will thin a little bit than what it is right now. But you see this rain that's coming in here now. Uh Belair Beach actually just starting to see a little bit of light rain right there. Indian Rocks Beach area.

[00:03:52]>> Bair more than anything, right? Um but I do think Indian Rocks gets some rain. Uh you were talking earlier about some outflow boundaries. Now we're really starting to see them.

[00:04:01]>> So these are outflow boundaries right here. There's not necessarily rain along it. You see that green line right there?

[00:04:06]Look what's happening out over here. We had an outflow boundary come in from the south.

[00:04:10]>> One come in from here. Let me back this up here a little bit.

[00:04:14]>> So, you have one here.

[00:04:17]All right. See, I'm drawing over that.

[00:04:18]You have another one here. It's actually part of the seab breeze. Now, watch as they come together right there. And then watch it start to develop showers and storms. And what's going to do, it's going to develop them on this side. So, Fortme defrost proof.

[00:04:35]This should fill in this area right in here. Okay. Because of those boundaries coming together. Now, we do have this one that's back out here. All right. I there's not much for a collision for that to help. So, >> but it's kind of cool to see it, you know, and sometimes we see the, you know, seabbze fronts that sort of look similar. Um, you know, that same >> Well, one of them is that that's what this one is.

[00:04:56]>> And the second one is the outflow coming down from this. So, we should mention the outflow boundary is the outflow from a thunderstorm. A thunderstorm really the combination of an updraft and a downdraft. So, it's that downdraft kind of hitting the ground and flowing out and and creates that line, that boundary here, those, you know, winds moving away from the storm and uh just kind of uh producing sort of that line, you know, that that thunderstorm right there has air coming down out of it. Hits the ground here and it can't go down anymore, so it spreads out. And a lot of times you'll get, you know, semicircle almost all the way around and that's that air. And then where that line ends up meeting a similar one, then those two come together at the ground and they can't go down. So they come up and that causes lift and that's why we think we'll get a little bit more there.

[00:05:40]>> Yeah. Could instigate a few more showers, maybe a storm or two very close to the boundary.

[00:05:44]>> Yeah.

[00:05:45]>> Yeah. So let's look at the hail. I want to Yeah. So those are >> you know it's really I mean we don't you know most folks at home may not think about it but you know a thunderstorm it's really almost like a piston and a cylinder in a car like up and down you got the updrafts then you got the down and then you know it's it's firing you know it's doing its thing you know it's take it's got the updrafts and then it's the downdrafts and then you got the outflow boundary. That's of course if it doesn't spawn anything more significant.

[00:06:12]And then you need the really big thunderstorms to get hail.

[00:06:15]>> Yeah. Exactly right. The taller ones.

[00:06:17]Um, and then you end up with I mean I want to go back and look at this closely. This is not in our neck of the woods, but I do want to come over here.

[00:06:23]>> It's pretty cool. Look at that collision course. Huh.

[00:06:25]>> But that cell, look at this cell initially. Look at the one to the north.

[00:06:29]That looks very interesting right here.

[00:06:31]>> Yeah. Oh, yeah. Right.

[00:06:32]>> Looks a little anvil at the end.

[00:06:33]>> And the way that it's moving, too. It's moving east, southeast, and it's going to collide with that cell from the top.

[00:06:39]So, the velocity's got to be I mean, that's amazing. Of course.

[00:06:42]>> Yeah.

[00:06:43]>> I mean, look at So, that is uh And then, in fact, if we back this up. Yeah.

[00:06:47]>> And that whole area I feel like all day that whole area was just getting shellacked.

[00:06:52]>> There's really good rotation there.

[00:06:53]>> Yeah.

[00:06:54]>> And then it comes over. Still some rotation.

[00:06:56]>> Yeah.

[00:06:57]>> Here's the secondary storm coming in from the south >> and then they come together.

[00:07:02]>> And look at that just kind of right move there, right?

[00:07:04]>> Just kind of jet off to the right.

[00:07:06]>> So no uh no warnings at this particular time for that cell, but I would, you know, Melbourne takes care of that.

[00:07:14]They're the uh NWS responsible for that particular neck of the woods. But that is something they're going to have to watch. And in fact, this is you can see all the way down to Fort Pierce. This is something that's going to be over on the east coast as we go through the afternoon hours. We've got a little bit here, Pulk County and eastern Pulk County. But that line all the way down to probably now east of Arcadia. So almost a line from here to here will be the best chance for anything kind of forming and moving off towards the east for the rest of the afternoon hours. um at least pretty good thunderstorm wise.

[00:07:46]>> Yeah, I mean lot I mean there's still a lot going on a little further inland.

[00:07:50]It's just you know kind of the convergence where where all of that is happening. There's just not as much activity coming out of the Gulf anymore.

[00:07:56]Y >> so you know we've gotten a little bit of a break in in that sense. But you know literally central Florida now is the is the hot spot all the way from you know Orlando further southward to Lake Placid and points of the south. And you know, we've been talking about the chance for severe and and tracking the tornado and stuff like that, but >> this is the best rain >> that we behind that line of storms. This is the best rain that we've seen in a long time. This is soaking rain >> and and literally uh some of the best coverage, you know, you know, biggest area that we've seen. I mean, we got, you know, I think you could almost make the case that you have half the state getting rain. So the the question is now well in the northern part of the state especially which is the driest part >> but the question is now how much do we get because what's driving all of this is this low >> and you can see see the clouds spinning right here that's the low itself and this thing is taking its time it was in Louisiana yesterday it's going to be over here tomorrow night or tomorrow into tomorrow afternoon moving off the coast. Okay. Up ahead of that, you get this flow like this. That's what's priming the atmosphere and giving us the juice for after sh for making showers and thunderstorms.

[00:09:06]>> The juice is loose.

[00:09:06]>> The juice is loose.

[00:09:10]>> So, >> you love my analogy.

[00:09:11]>> I do. I really do. Especially when there's no tornado warning. Probably going to be like, I think Mr. Chromosome or something.

[00:09:17]>> No, you were you were spot on. I was nervous. I was like, all right. Like >> lay off the jokes when we have a tornado in the area, you know?

[00:09:25]>> Yeah. But that was after and then you're like, "Okay, we're good.

[00:09:28]>> Yeah, we're good."

[00:09:29]>> But, uh, there's there's just a lot of moisture left over. This was the best chance for any stronger storms. It doesn't mean I I do think we'll actually see a couple thunderstorms overnight tonight and a couple during the day tomorrow in the Tampa Bay area. All right. And it's this. It's this area right here. Because this low has to come through.

[00:09:48]>> It's got to go somewhere. Either that or it just dissipates and kind of, you know, >> Yeah.

[00:09:52]>> I mean, look, the water's 82.

[00:09:54]>> Yeah. Yeah. I think it, you know, hold together.

[00:09:56]>> Yeah. Yeah.

[00:09:56]>> And we're going to have some lift. And what happens is when you get warm water and an onshore flow >> and then temperatures that are going to go into the lower to mid70s over land and probably a little bit some spots a little bit lower because of the rain, cooled air.

[00:10:09]>> You're going to get a good setup where you have convection developing out over the Gulf, the very far eastern Gulf, right off the shore. And with the onshore flow, it's going to blow some of those in there. So, right now, because of the daytime heating over land, we we really fired up the storms here. These will dissipate this evening and then we're going to see something pop up out here overnight tonight. Not a lot, but we already have it now.

[00:10:32]>> Yeah.

[00:10:33]>> As long as that boundary is there, right? You know that that you know, you got the area of low pressure, but you also have the cold front which will probably weaken, you know, and and slowly dissipate as well. But uh until then, it's still an active zone, a formation zone. Nice little atmospheric highway for some of this stuff to organize and and ride along, which would which would, you know, be beneficial rainfall wise certainly.

[00:10:55]>> So these storms, this is kind of looking at how tall they are, not the actual numbers, but just the the high reflectivity and the stronger ones.

[00:11:02]Clearly, you can see >> they are not in the immediate Tampa Bay area anymore. See all that clearing out?

[00:11:07]They're in here and well northern pole well really most of Pole County at this point and then moving off towards the east. Let me put this into motion. You can see how everything's kind of moving away. We do have a couple good cells that are just offshore but even those are not that impressive. Nothing like what we had seen earlier. And we we'll watch sorry about that. We will watch Manatee County and down in the Sarasota because this area has really cooled off with the rain. So you have less energy to make big storms with the rain that's coming on. That's why you're not seeing much. still warm, still muggy, still good southwest feed for Manatee and Sarasota County. And so we'll watch these storms here. I I mean, they may not fall apart. I don't think they'll get huge, but they may not fall apart as quickly as some of the stuff that's happening up here.

[00:11:50]>> All right, now let's take a look at the the bigger picture. Uh this is all going to move off towards the east. Remember yesterday, this big blob, if you will, was back out to the west. Um it's just taking its time. If you think back in our forecast, we were thinking yesterday and early this morning we would have it.

[00:12:07]>> Yeah.

[00:12:08]>> Now it's today and early tomorrow that we will have this coming.

[00:12:11]>> So slow moving. Even the storms were slow moving 10 15 miles an hour today.

[00:12:15]Yeah. I mean for for you know what ended up being a severe thunderstorm. That was really slow.

[00:12:21]>> And you can see here we're looking pretty good outside right now. Gray skies. This is uh looking off towards Bush Gardens.

[00:12:27]>> 78.

[00:12:28]>> Yeah. Ain't that amazing?

[00:12:29]>> It's great.

[00:12:29]>> D.7 point's still high. would like to see that come down a little bit, but we'll take we'll take 78. You know, >> look at the Tom I mean, look at 70 in Newport Richie, 71 in Brooksville, >> 86 in Sarasota where we haven't seen any rain.

[00:12:42]>> How often, you know, have, you know, 442 temperatures been cooler than the Gulf.

[00:12:48]>> Right. Right. Right. Hasn't happened a whole lot of late. Right.

[00:12:51]>> Let's back up to midnight tonight. A few showers. See, see where they're coming?

[00:12:55]See how they fall apart over land? Look out over the Gulf. See them popping up?

[00:13:01]That's the dal, that's the noc nocturnal really >> um aspect of the warmer water because we're in the low 70s here. We're in the low 80s here. That is lift. And in fact, you get a little bit of a land breeze, which means the wind comes from the land towards the water. Uh but that will help that that's what's helping to make some of this convection is the land breeze coming in that direction. But then as we get towards the morning hours, this is 8:00, they'll be right there near the coast. And then as we move through midm morning 10:30 11:30 here we are at 10.

[00:13:32]Here we go. You see, let me back get like this so I can see here. Here is 10:30 11:00. You see them popping on shore. Now this is basically what was out here moving on shore and then eventually these will die down and these will pick up and move off towards the east. So watch this as we go through the afternoon. See them pick up. Yeah, that's around 1:30 2 o'clock >> and then the east coast gets it. That's four o'clock tomorrow afternoon.

[00:13:54]Meanwhile, the immediate coast because the onore flow doesn't get much. But I would suspect that probably in Pulk County, we're we may have a chance for a good thunderstorm again tomorrow and right around midday. That's around 12 to 1:00 in the afternoon. From then through about 5 to 6 o'clock, we could see a pretty decent chance for another strong thunderstorm or two. Obviously, again, the biggest chance will be the further east you go. And then the front itself actually does come through uh tomorrow night into Thursday. M >> and we basically dry things out with the due points coming down.

[00:14:27]>> Yeah. Which would be great. And you know, unfortunately temperatures, high temperatures not really coming down. If anything, kind of going up, but at least we might have some drier air with that.

[00:14:36]So it won't feel as as sticky.

[00:14:38]>> Much better.

[00:14:38]>> Yeah.

[00:14:39]>> Uh this is the threat. So yesterday they had something like they had this green area like right here, >> you know. And then today, well once we started seeing storms hit the fan, >> right?

[00:14:49]>> Right.

[00:14:50]>> That then they moved that over. tomorrow they have taken it out even for the east coast. Okay, you see that area right there? There's not even much there. I I would imagine though I'd be watching this area including the eastern pole county again for tomorrow for a couple strong storms is not the atmosphere does not change as much for the east coast and as does for the west coast of Florida um by that time tomorrow. Um all right, mugginess low to mid70s. Um some of the lows could actually be what we're seeing out there right now. I do think Hernando and Citrus County will see some upper 60s tomorrow morning and then tomorrow afternoon. There we go. You see about a 40 to 50% chance. I think those numbers are kind of high. And in fact, I know they're kind of high because these are in the afternoon. Let's adjust these. The better chance is going to be the first half of the day as the storms start along the coast and then push inland. So, I would say 9 10 11 to noon.

[00:15:43]20 to 30% chance. In fact, I would bump that 11 up to about uh 30% chance because that's when everything's kind of moving on shore. And then we will see most of it shift inland away from the Tampa Bay area as we move through the afternoon hours. And actually the it is seeing the clouds break up a little bit.

[00:16:01]See a little bit more sunshine by 1:00.

[00:16:03]>> So it is kind of getting that.

[00:16:04]>> We'll see if it's you know if there's enough juice left over if it's you know a little bit of self-destruct sunshine.

[00:16:09]We add some more heat to that and we'll see if that initiates anything or not.

[00:16:12]You know, I I think today obviously we had the front, so we had the lift, you know, we had uh we had a lot of the components coming together, which we don't have tomorrow, really. Right.

[00:16:20]Right. So hopefully, >> you know, I mean, look, it's it's kind of good either way, you know, we don't want the storms, but we need the rain.

[00:16:28]So it's like if it does, great. If it doesn't, great. So I mean, it's I feel like we kind of win either way, but we don't want, you know, it would just be great if we had soaking consistent rain.

[00:16:39]That's the one thing we don't have, obviously. You know, I think the uh >> the boating forecast is going to be a little bit iffy because overall we would say 5 to 10 knots of wind, but when you have the storms around, especially midm morning, 10:00 a.m. through about 100 p.m. And watch this. Watch the clock at the top. See 10:00 a.m. Those are the storms moving on shore through about 1:00. Now, watch as I go past it. We don't see the wind come down.

[00:17:05]>> No, no. That wind stays elevated for four hours >> up into the bay.

[00:17:09]>> Yeah. So that's through three o'clock almost into four o'clock. So I'm gonna go a pretty good west wind too.

[00:17:14]>> Yeah, I'm going to go 5 to 15 for that especially up into the bay. So not the best boating day. It's not terrible tomorrow, but um certainly not the best boating day. And then here we go. We are drying out Thursday and Friday. Due points drop. We don't drop temperatures that much, but the air will dry out a little bit. And then Saturday, Sunday, and into Monday, watch the due points.

[00:17:34]Watch them drop Thursday, Friday, and then they come right back over the weekend. Yep.

[00:17:38]>> And then >> it's a one hit wonder like your favorite 80s band, right?

[00:17:42]>> Yeah. Right. And then look at this. This is the 10day forecast for temperatures.

[00:17:48]>> I mean, next week gets hot.

[00:17:49]>> Yes. It looks like next week gets hot up and down the East Coast. I think as you know, I saw some final guidance for Philly for Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. Not tomorrow. Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. 96. Yeah. Yeah. You know, some Euro guidance. 96 for Philly.

[00:18:04]>> No, it's flipped. The switch is flipped.

[00:18:05]Not >> for sure. But but here's what I'm looking at. Watch as we go through Thursday and Friday. There's the dry air. See Tampa there, the brown. Okay, that's drier air moving in. You can see the moisture down in the Bahamas and over Cuba. That's the front that's coming through now. That's what's giving us this rain. Okay, now Saturday, we start to get Look, look at these little lines. Do you see the little lines, the wind lines right there? Let me let me point these out for you. These little lines right here. See those? That's a high pressure right here. That is surface wind. And it's coming in like this. That is a southeast wind for us and that's going to drag the moisture back in. Now southeast wind and then look at the uh upper right hand corner.

[00:18:42]This is the amount of moisture in the atmosphere. That's low. That's the PW.

[00:18:46]>> Um but that is going to come back up quickly. Yeah. And the air temp on Saturday is going to be close to 90 degrees.

[00:18:52]>> That is close to a summertime pattern.

[00:18:56]>> Yeah. It's almost a Bermuda high right there.

[00:18:58]>> It Yeah. Right. Yeah. It's just about there. Yeah, >> it's just about there. Then watch Sunday afternoon. The moisture is coming back, right? We have another 12 to 24 hours of southeast winds bringing the moisture back in. And then watch as we get into Monday afternoon right there.

[00:19:15]Tuesday afternoon, east to southeast wind. Let's go out to Wednesday afternoon. Bottom line, guys, this to me looks like we're getting into a rainy season pattern. We're trying.

[00:19:29]The rainy season starts around the 25th, but that's an average date. There's the high set up. That gives us the east toss and southeast winds. Here come the east toss and southeast winds. There's the moisture that we need. We have highs in the low 90s.

[00:19:41]>> Do we have the amount of moisture in the atmosphere all the way up?

[00:19:45]>> Not quite.

[00:19:47]>> I would want to see this white line up above here.

[00:19:51]>> See, here's the dry air Thursday and Friday. See a dip and then it comes back up Saturday, Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday. We're not quite there yet, but that's getting closer and closer to a rainy season pattern. And I wouldn't be surprised if we see another dry spell on the backside, which it looks like it's trying to give us here, and then we snap back and we do this with a little bit more moisture.

[00:20:12]>> The million-dollar question is in in that in that range from this weekend through early to mid next week, >> can we get any rain out of it?

[00:20:21]>> Yes, we will. Yeah, this Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday time, all of this >> will give us a few afternoon showers and storms. It's not going to be full-on rainy season, right?

[00:20:29]>> But but it will give us >> It should pop something >> a little bit. Yeah, it should for sure.

[00:20:33]>> Uh there's the 7-day forecast. Uh haven't edited this yet. Let's use this one. That way that one works.

[00:20:38]>> Um you can see the numbers going up into the low 90s next weekend or this weekend into next week.

[00:20:44]>> Yeah.

[00:20:45]>> But I started bringing the rain chants back up to about 30% by Monday. So 20% means one or two afternoon showers. 30% is just a little bit more obviously. But if you've noticed, and this is just kind of I mean when it's 30% or more, we add a little raindrop.

[00:21:02]>> Okay, 20% is like h there's going to be a couple around. Most of us won't see it. Yeah.

[00:21:06]>> You know, but when you once you start getting to 30%, you start getting closer to that rainy season stuff.

[00:21:10]>> 40 to 50% is kind of typical afternoon thunderstorm stuff, except for >> in in this case, this is not this is the front coming through. This is that low moving by. This is not the the boiling of afternoon showers and storms. All right, so we're getting there. We are not at the uh rainy season yet, but average high temperature is now 88.

[00:21:34]Average low is 70. This number will go to 91. That's that's our highest average.

[00:21:41]>> And it will stay that way through the middle of September.

[00:21:45]>> And when when is it hitting 91? In June.

[00:21:48]>> Uh the end of this month.

[00:21:49]>> End of June. Okay. Or in June. Yeah.

[00:21:51]>> In June. Yeah. I think it finishes.

[00:21:53]>> Yeah. Right. Yeah. Late May, early June.

[00:21:55]June. Yeah.

[00:21:56]>> I got to look at that. I used to have that date memorized.

[00:21:59]>> And then staying there essentially for four months.

[00:22:03]>> Absolutely. Yeah. Absolutely. If we're lucky. Now, last year we stayed warm, but we stopped getting rain in September.

[00:22:10]>> Yes.

[00:22:10]>> And that's what brought us back to that drought.

[00:22:12]>> That was the crux of the drought.

[00:22:13]September was supposed to be six inches of rain.

[00:22:15]>> Little little bit more than six.

[00:22:16]>> A little bit more than six. And we didn't even get half an inch, I think.

[00:22:18]something something ridiculous like that.

[00:22:20]>> And today's rain uh not only for us half of what we should have gotten in September.

[00:22:26]>> Right. Absolutely. Two, three to four in west northwestern Pasco County. Um 3 to four inches today.

[00:22:32]>> And we we can't emphasize enough the drought that we're in right now really was made so much worse and really started September. September was what kind of kicked it all off and put us way behind the eight-ball.

[00:22:44]>> Think about where the rain is today and look where we're at right now. Look at that northern part of the state, Tampa northward especially. That's who saw most of the rain today. And in fact, if I pull this out, there's a lot of rain right now over South Georgia and North Florida right now as we speak.

[00:23:00]>> Great. In fact, let's leave you with that. That's kind of where they need good news. Exactly where we need it.

[00:23:05]>> Uh you can see it here now. And so the what's called exceptional drought, which is the highest classification that we have,