Bitcoin Trend Reversal...

Added: 2026-05-20

[00:00:00]Hey everyone, welcome back to Crypto Cash. Thanks again for joining me here.

[00:00:03]I hope you're having a phenomenal day.

[00:00:04]Thanks again for being just a phenomenal part of my life. We got some really awesome uh comments yesterday. Deeply appreciate that. I hope you can continue to learn and watch and grow as a trader.

[00:00:12]So, what we're going to talk about here today specifically is the following.

[00:00:16]It's actually quite a lot. Uh this obvious liquidation below the price, you know, there is kind of that big target on 75 to $76,000 range. There's a lot of liquidation there. But um you know when we kind of combine that with spot volume flowing out price action sustaining this range here of 76,000 the longer we sustain the more likely it is to to hold right and once more it sounds kind of contradictory too right because for the most part the more often you test a support or resistance the more like it is to break which is true but we're seeing this imbalance here right now on the order books specifically on perpetual futures where there's just a ridiculous amount of limit buy orders there at 76350 and you can kind of see that reflected here. Obviously, the orderbook profile tells us that, but more specifically, there's just a ridiculous amount of long positions that are being opened in this 76 uh to 765K range, right? And if we look at the limit orders here, actually, I posted this on X a little bit maybe a little bit easier to kind of see or or understand is that we got 76,350.

[00:01:16]Uh basically, I added them all up and it's approximately 227 million in limit long orders likely from the just this one whale specifically. they have to, you know, sparse their uh their trades out essentially to essentially get filled. But the concept here is if we see that 76,350 again, there's a good chance that as that gets filled, the price will continue to bounce as it continues to try to test that and break it down. So, long story short, it doesn't mean that's support. It just suggests that there's a very large amount of interest in buying this range.

[00:01:44]Uh so sometimes these whales with large large positions have a tendency of knowing more than what we know, right?

[00:01:50]They're they're connected, you could say. Uh so there's a possibility of that. Anyways, some things we're going to kind of have to look at here today.

[00:01:55]So, be sure to stick around. We got a really good one. Uh, let's take a closer look.

[00:02:01]All right, folks. Before we jump in the back and data, friendly reminder, hit the like button, comment below if you get a chance. Join us over on Twitter, Telegram, or Discord, even Facebook if that's your thing. Uh, it's all linked down below. Of course, got some really awesome uh alpha effectively coming out frequently there. Uh, make sure you enable alerts so you can kind of stay a breast there. Now, when it comes to the backend data, the easy thing to understand here is that shorts are getting paid to to essentially hold their positions open, which is very um it's a very odd thing. It's basically suggests that longs are overleveraged really is what it boils down to, which is why the 75K range makes a lot of sense to see that lower level and get hit. That's like the sensible expectation. Uh but obviously there's some conflicting information. We'll look at that here in a minute. The the concept here remains the same though as this continues as you know the the the funding rate effectively uh an aggregate funding rate by the way it's u you know weighted by open interest this tells us here a lot that based on the momentum and how active the whales are that further downside would make sense it's very practical to presume that plus the liquidation below the price there's a lot of reasons for that uh if you take a look here this kind of gives you a better perspective there's that pretty big chunk between 76 and 75k right so it would be surprising if that level didn't get swept. But it would also be equally not surprising if the price just recovered from here based on how market makers really love to dangle that carrot. And I did talk about that early in one of my posts here with the liquidation, what just how imbalanced it is. We're now at a 4:1 ratio of shorts versus longs. But majority of those longs are all chunked here in that $1,000 bracket between 75 and 76,000. So this is definitely the area to watch. Um I have some limit orders in the 75K range to essentially, you know, take a long, if you will. uh but or maybe even add to my long position depending on how things play out. But for the most part, that's kind of the range that we need to kind of uh respect and understand it's it's there, right? It's very much there.

[00:03:51]Uh the thing to also understand too is that spot volume is generally low. Um and obviously we can see this very large buy order at 76,350.

[00:03:59]Depending on how that gets filled or if it gets filled fully, uh we'll be able to see or know a lot more here soon. So all that being said, what I'm looking for is spot volumes to start to increase. Every single time US markets open over the last seven day, seven trading days, uh specifically US market trading days, we can we've seen that the price action just rip down like US wants to sell. Coinbase premium index is is super large right now, right? There's a reason for it. Coinbase is offloading or you know traders on Coinbase. Basically what that boils down to is it's a lot to do with the ETFs. they flow through Coinbase in most cases just because it's the largest uh exchange in the US.

[00:04:35]Anyways, let's take a look at some backend data here or at least some different backend data before we jump into the charts, get some perspective here. See where we're at. Not much has changed from an open interest and uh true retail long perspective. Retail longs are still heavy. Uh obviously we know that that's why there's that target at 75K. Uh but open interest is kind of just hanging out in the the 50 percentile, which isn't bad. It just kind of suggests that this downtrend is losing momentum, right? Generally speaking, you want to see open interest high on a on a consistent downtrend to anticipate the price to continue in that direction. Right now, we're not seeing that. Therefore, we could be stalling out and kind of starting to plateau at the 76k range. Right now, all that said, obviously, pay attention to 76 to 75K.

[00:05:16]We know that that's there from a macro structure, though, when we look at the big picture. Obviously, there's a ton between 55 and 65,000. We've we've known this for a while. This is the the three-month structure here. Uh but generally speaking outside of the local you know 72 to 74k there's more liquidation above the price at 85,000 than there is below uh in the the the you know relative uh you know shorter time frames of 74,000. What I'm getting at here is it's still practical to presume that 74,000 could get hit. But it's also realistic to assume that 85,000 would be the next target if we pivot off this range. And 75 to 76,000 is a very sensible area uh for that pivot to occur. And we'll look on the charts here and I'll show you why that's the case. But it's it's pretty obvious to me. Now, when it comes to this current area here, we can see liquidation delta is still hovering in this 12 to 10, sometimes 14 billion. It was at 14 billion last night. Uh just massively overextended. This is a 5day look back. So, this whole thing, this whole chunk is red just telling us that shorts are very heavy. When shorts are heavy, they pile in. That's why we got that 4:1 ratio of shorts versus longs.

[00:06:21]that tends to be a a factor where the price action will bounce in those ranges because of that. So, just know that this is not a positive contributing factor for those who are trying to short right now. If you're considering a short, make sure you, you know, secure profits between now and 75,000 if that were to even come to pass, right? Uh I think that shorting what feels like the support range is is a kind of a higher risk. But once more, there's so many risks right now in the trading market that uh you're kind of it seems very challenging. Let's just put it that way.

[00:06:52]It's hard to get a read on what's going on right now. Obviously, the trend is down. You want to stick to that and honor that trend. But for the most part here at this point, uh let's go ahead and do some counting. So, even though TDS sells tells us we're at a seven, uh we got a little reset here. For the most part, we've seen what? 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8.

[00:07:10]So, eight out of the last nine candles have been red. All right. Now, that's a retracement of what is it approximately 8% from top to bottom. So, this isn't like a super aggressive sell-off, but it is, you know, a lot of volume is flowing out and it makes sense for the price to capitulate soon. We're getting to that overextended state on the macro. Uh, so to touch on, you know, support. Now, this isn't like a firm indication that we're just going to bounce here, but it does tell us here that we've never closed below, at least on the previous local low here at 75,800. And what I mean by that, it's not like we haven't ever closed below. Previous times we did, but in order to invalidate this higher low pattern, we need to close below on the daily at 75K 75.8K or lower. Right? So the long story short here why I'm saying this is that, you know, this is the structure is still intact. The bullish quote unquote bullish structure is still intact. The likelihood of pivoting or bouncing off this range is high because local range low is essentially getting tested here soon. uh we haven't yet had the previous range lows get tested on this ascending trend yet. So that's why this is kind of one of those pivotal moments and you want to give it the chance to be able to hold until it doesn't. Right now it doesn't mean you just go long and hard at 75.8K.

[00:08:20]See how the price action responds but at this point we're starting to see lower time frame double bottoms in this range and it would make sense for the price to kind of pivot and bounce from here. Once more from a from a sensible standpoint that's what should happen, right? But from a nonsensical, you know, cryptocurrency high leverage perspective, 75K makes perfect sense, too, right? So, it really just depends on where your mind's at and where you want to consider. Are you like an extremely safe trader and going to wait for 75,000? Are you going to try to get some skin in the game here for a potential long? You could also be the person that wants to short the bottom here or what feels like the tenative bottom. There's a lot of different schools of thought. Of course, no one's right or wrong until it's proven otherwise. But at this point here, I'm going to give that 75k range a chance to hold if we enter that ranch here soon, which once more from a structural standpoint, it would make sense for us to go lower on the smaller time frames.

[00:09:11]Okay, so 4hour time frame is looking a bit on the overextended side. Once more, we hit that 70 range on the RSI. And I did identify this previously, but um you know, just kind of reiterate in case you missed that. What we're looking at is every time the price action generally hits either 30 or 70 in the RSI, we'll see that capitulation, that slowing pressure and a reversal. Uh so the previous time we saw 30 on the RSI was at 66 65,000 and the price inevitably ran to 86 or sorry 82K rather. So the long story short here is that doesn't mean we're just going to bounce, but it is a respectable area. we're entering that overextension state uh because of how strong and precipitous the price is pro proven to uh to continue to retrace.

[00:09:53]Therefore, long story short to me is that we're reaching a pivot point. We're seeing confluence on the 4 hour and also the daily time frame in this range. And I think the likelihood of uh a bounce or a pivot here soon makes sense. Uh it just depends on how soon or if that liquidation range of uh you know 70 75 to 76k is going to get hit. That may just be that carrot that's going to be dangling like I kind of mentioned or alluded to in one of my uh posts earlier because it's just it's a highly contested range. Right. So, at this point here, taking a look, we can see the price consistently bouncing off 76,350.

[00:10:26]In fact, I'm curious if uh any of these orders have been filled yet. Doesn't look like they have been filled. We are looking at uh pretty much the same total. So, the long story short here is that there's they're continuing to add to their margin in that range. And if you look at the current scenario here for lower time frames, Asia low has already been swept here of roughly 76450. Okay, so a closure above 76450 would be uh pretty obviously uh a good sign, right? Um more important, I want to see a closure above 766. That was kind of like that point of control from yesterday. If you saw the price had a lot of difficulty crossing that level and now that it has it's for the most part held above minus Asia low getting swept here.

[00:11:07]simple way to understand it when you look on these daily time frames here or sorry the lower time frames um kind of the intraday you generally want to presume highs and lows are going to get swept. So now that the Asia low has been hit, next sensible location would be the Asia high or London high, right? 77 that low of 77K range. That seems like a practical consider consideration. Now if you take liquidation completely out of the out of the equation, that is exactly what should happen next. However, there's always this weird strange looming liquidation scenario where you never know if you're just going to get that quick little reset button to the downside. So maybe have some limit orders in the 75K range to be safe, right? between now and then um it's like a 60% probability of going up versus down based on everything we've talked about. Okay, so again, those are just my thoughts. I'm not like perfect by any stretch, but I can tell you that uh for the most part, these transitions generally come to fruition if you're patient enough and you kind of you're careful enough. So, right now, I'd be slowly averaging into a long position um just because it feels like a significant pullback makes less sense until we have those key levels uh retested and we're not there yet. So, transitions are always a pain to try to try to trade and we are in that transition. Are we going to start establishing higher lows and higher highs on uh on the lower time frames? That still is yet to be seen.

[00:12:26]So, we can presume downside makes more sense. But once more, the contradiction of the whole market right now is that liquidation versus the higher time frame divergence. Those are all things to me that um make me want to trade less right now. Really, that's just a simple way to understand it. So, less is more. Uh maybe just leave with that and let's take a look at some altcoins here next.

[00:12:47]Quick heads up to our traders. We got a 15% discount on trading fees if you use my link to register through Bit Unix.

[00:12:53]Links down below in the description. All right, folks. Let's take a look here at Ethereum. Just kind of get some quick perspective. Obviously, we're in an ascending trend, establishing lower lows and lower highs, and the comparison for that of Bitcoin versus Ethereum is actually decent. So, the the the narrative's changed here a little bit since yesterday where we're seeing better higher lows versus that of Bitcoin's higher lows. Okay? So, that's usually a good sign for the most part that ETH could very well push higher.

[00:13:17]Now, we got to respect the fact that there's still a ton of bearish divergence. There is 9 billion in short liquidation delta letting us know that bears are absolutely in control right now. And for the most part, even though there is liquidation on the downside, it's starting to pile up to the upside here. 2200 has a target on its back, just as 78,000 does for Bitcoin. So, you kind of take all this in consideration.

[00:13:37]It seems practical to presume that ETH would go up with Bitcoin and Bitcoin if it goes down, ETH is going to follow, right? We kind of got the the lost puppy syndrome going on. So simple way to understand it here is that if you're taking a long with ETH even though there are some confirming factors here slightly more it's still not a guarantee or the kind of you know statistical odds that you want to take. We are right here at about 50 sorry 30 on the RSI. Bitcoin is right there too. Generally speaking you will see a type of bullish convergence there where we see a bounce off this range. I'm not expecting big old moves here from ETH though if it happens. It's based on Bitcoin pumping and right now it's hard to anticipate that you that being a thing as well. So gh this is a really tricky weird situation but the key takeaway here is that we're kind of stuck between a rock and a hard place and less is going to be more uh at this point. So I would say conservatively wait for these lower liquidation ranges to be hit first and if you're going to take a long or insist on a long average in because there's really no mega support here in this range. I think 200 has a lot of confluence but we're not there yet. Okay so just trade carefully with ETH. That's that's my recommendation here. Make sure you're not uh you know overleveraging at this point. It's a best trade you can take right now is literally no trade to wait for this this transition to finish.

[00:14:51]Right? We haven't had higher highs and higher lows yet. Until that happens, we got to presume the price is going to go down. Those are my thoughts. What are yours? All right, folks. Quick look here at Salana honoring its ascending, sorry, descending trend still, right? So, not much has changed from yesterday. It is going sideways, which is obviously beneficial. Bitcoin is doing the same thing for the most part as well. Trying to figure out if it wants to establish higher highs and higher lows. It's starting with higher lows for the moment, but that's still very premature and early. So, uh, generally speaking, when you're trying, you know, if you hear me trying to quote unquote convince you to take a trade, you shouldn't take the trade. In other words, I never convince myself of taking a trade. If it sounds like I'm doing that, I promise you I'm not because Salana is absolutely one of those coins right now that is not worth taking a long or short with.

[00:15:35]Reason why there's tons of open interest above the price, price should go up.

[00:15:39]There's tons of liquidation above the price, price should go down. there's a lot of liquidation both above and below the price. It could go up or down, right? That's too many conflicting factors. So, I'm not trying to make a joke of this, but it really is the market is kind of a joke in in general right now just based on, you know, this this ridiculous amount of liquidation left below the price for Bitcoin.

[00:15:58]Funding rates are negative or basically positive rather where shorts are getting paid to hold their positions open that are in massive profit. Yet, we've got multiple confirming factors. We should bounce in this range. So, it's just it's one of those patience games. you really got to play and wait uh wait for uh we are getting close to breaking our descending trend here for Salana. That's a start and we are here in a pretty significant point of control support range between 84 and 85. So there are some confirming factors that a bounce here would make sense from Salana. It's just not as clear as I'd like it to be.

[00:16:29]Okay, once again those are my thoughts.

[00:16:30]Maybe you trade different. Uh I'd love to hear it. What kind of trading strategies are you applying right now in this current uh tumultuous market? All right, folks. Quick look here at Sueie.

[00:16:39]And the simple way to understand it is it's ranging between its previous range high of 102 103 to its local range high of roughly about 108. Okay, so we can see a pretty obvious definitive channel here where that previous range highs is still working as a new resistance and previous range lows uh still working as support. Okay, so what's going to happen from here? Well, the logical thing typically a bullish type of scenario, we're going to see the pivot and the bounce in the previous range high scenario, right? So simple way to understand it, uh, breaking 110 or 108, it makes more sense than going down.

[00:17:13]However, Bitcoin, is it going to go down or up? We really don't know. Most altcoins are just kind of waiting in the waiting on the sidelines. They're like, is Bitcoin going to pump? Either way you look at it here, this is a significantly bullish uh scenario here for Sooie or better bullish scenario. In other words, we got higher lows here, significantly higher lows than previous. So, this to me tells me that Sooie is more bullish than the average coin right now and is more likely or has higher propensity to go higher faster. Um, once more, there's a lot of other factors we want to look at, but this is something that's unlike other coins right now. I've been I've looked at a lot of altcoins today and we got this uh tapering effect here in the liquidation delta telling us that shorts are getting squeezed out a or longs are entering the market. Okay? And that's usually a favorable sign. There's open interest in both directions. The safer play is to wait for $1 to 90, but right now there is no safe plays in trading.

[00:18:03]Okay. So really, what are you planning to do right now? Do you want to take a a potential breakout trade here on Sooie, which kind of seems like something I'm leaning more towards just based on the simple fact that I'm kind of a little bit more so on the side of Bitcoin going higher than lower with the exception of that liquidation to the downside. Of course, that could still happen. Bitcoin is doing better than it should in this current range. And we are seeing some larger time frame you know confirming factors or con confluence if you will that leads me to believe that Bitcoin should bounce at 75 to 76k. So heaven forbid Bitcoin sweeps 77 75,000 has a fast run to the downside then I think suie will probably follow suit. It'll probably sweep this you know low low $1 range. So, you want to keep your stop loss either tight and consider re-entry or no stop-loss at all or just roll with me here, low position sized limit orders on the way down, right? Scale into your position, whatever that desired level is. Once more, at this point, the points of control here that we're seeing, it's pretty this is a pretty solid little range here. And for the most part, Sue does have lower time frame convergence versus that of Bitcoin. I'm actually a little bit more biased towards the up upside than downside with Suie. Okay, so once more, if you have any, you know, questions on that or more so specifically, you think different, I'd love to hear it. Comment below and let me know what do you think is going to happen next with Sooie. All right, folks, let's take a look at the train wreck that is XRP. And when I say train wreck, I mean all due respect to those who are just absolutely in love with this coin. I'm really referring to the fact that it's falling flat and laying flat uh consistent with Bitcoin. And most altcoins are doing that. So, it's really not like something you should be offended by. Having said that though, we're seeing a lower high pattern versus a slightly higher low pattern for Bitcoin. So when you see that kind of comparison, it tells you should be a warning sign that hey, I shouldn't invest in this coin yet until it starts pulling its head from its ass, right?

[00:19:52]That's really what we're seeing here for the most part. So um I don't love when I see that when I look here, short liquidation delta just keeps climbing.

[00:20:00]We're at 1 billion now. That's really a sign that the bears are in control, i.e. uh you know institutional traders or more specifically the whales who like to and continue to compress the price of XRP. They're the ones pushing the price action down. It's not people like you and I. All that said though, there is very little liquidation outside of late longs here to suggest we go much lower.

[00:20:20]And we have identified previously that this current range of 136 has a lot of confluence. In other words, we take a look at the 4hour time frame. You can kind of see this previous range low here 136 135 outside of majority of this fair value gap that's been filled trying I would say disregard that we should see a pivot or a bounce here soon between 135 and 136 it's consistent with Bitcoin pivoting at 76K as well. So there's a handful of reasons why XRP should go up but there's also a lot of reasons why it's probably going to keep going down.

[00:20:50]So I know it's very conflicting but when you hear those conflicting signs you shouldn't trade. That's really what it boils down to. So, every time you you consider taking a trade, first of all, convince yourself to not take a trade versus that of the other way around. You should never try to be like, "Oh, I like X, Y, and Z, but there's 50 of the reasons why it shouldn't work out, right? You want a lot of confirming factors. Right now, there isn't a ton.

[00:21:11]Only thing we really have is this relative rough estimate of 136 to 135 is of support. That's not like an amazing factor. And I do think that the general consensus here is that XRP is looking fairly weak versus that of uh versus that of Bitcoin. So unless Bitcoin pumps, we can presume XRP is going to continue lower. That's really what it boils down to. All right, so those are my thoughts. What are yours? Why don't you comment below? Let me know. Also, to my new traders coming over to our community, make sure you read through my signals guide and my trade alerts just so you understand why I take the trades that I take. Get a little more, you know, understanding there because the whole point is to learn. And obviously, make sure you watch those university videos, too. They're there for you to understand and to become a better trader. All right, so that's all there.

[00:21:50]If you have any questions, reach out, comment below. Look forward to work with you. Hope you have a great rest of your day. Deeply appreciate your time. We'll see you the next one. Take