What If It's the Dollar that Is Dying and the Stock Market Is Not Overvalued?

追加: 2026-06-03

[00:00:00]Tuesday, June 2nd, 2026, Monco 64, home of alternative economics and contrarian views. We're going to look at the general stock market. We're going to look at the Dow gold ratio. And uh I'm going to ask a question whether the stock market is really uh that much overvalued in terms of real money. of course because there is a lot of talk out there and rightfully so that the stock market is uh at levels not seen since 1929 uh or people looking at the Buffett indicator which is the uh market cap of the US stock market to GDP and saying look this is not normal uh we're going to see a crash but what if it's uh the fiat dollar that's collapsing And we know from u the Austrian school of economics and from the crackup boom or the meltup that when uh investors or the general public realize the currency is not going to have any value that uh the inflationary policy will not end. uh they they will uh jump ship and they will want anything but the currency and uh one of the things that is real uh are companies uh that are quoted in the stock market of course monetary wise I continue to um believe that gold and silver and hard assets will come out uh the best out of the currency collapse companies uh let's say in the financial sector, insurance sector, fund management uh I would say they're going to suffer uh and uh we're going to look at the Dow gold ratio and you will see that we're not that uh overvalued right now relative to past periods uh all the way back to uh the 1920s.

[00:02:19]Uh before I do, I'd like to uh thank all of you for the interest in the channel.

[00:02:25]Uh make sure you subscribe, make sure you hit the like button if you enjoy a particular video, and yeah, make sure you hit that little notification bell to be notified of all uh my new videos. I I post something every day. Uh, and uh, of course I I've been doing a lot more interviews than I used to in the past and uh, I'm trying to get some new guests. Uh, I should be getting uh, Bob Mariotti on soon. Uh, yeah, I've been following Bob uh, and 3 to1 Gold for a very long time and uh, I'm surprised I haven't had him on yet, but I'm looking forward to that. Um yeah, for example, I was looking here uh at this post on uh X from Wrecked Fencer. It says, "Something extremely bad is coming. UK US stocks, excuse me, are now the most overvalued in the 100 plus years. Higher than the dot bubble.

[00:03:28]Higher than any point since 1929.

[00:03:31]Uh the higher it goes, the worse this ends.

[00:03:36]It's understandable that uh Americans, and I'm not having a go at Americans, uh they they don't really think too much of the currency because the dollar has all has been supreme. It's been the currency for well, I would say 100% of Americans that are living today. Maybe the uh Americans uh grandparents and great-grandparents knew a little more about currency. Or maybe not. Maybe you have to go back to the civil war when you had the greenbacks that collapsed or go back to the uh revolutionary war where the continental collapsed. So yeah, America's been uh lucky that the dollar has always uh been uh a currency that's been relatively strong compared to all the other fiat currencies. And that includes of course uh currencies like the Reichkes mark back after World War I and all major really European currencies since World War I. Uh Germany is had three three two or three currencies. France has been a basket case in terms of currencies. Uh Italy, yes. So it's understandable. But I if we go back to 1929, um we need to realize that the dollar was as good as gold back then. So to look at the uh stock market in terms of the fiat dollar doesn't make sense. It's like comparing apples and pairs, it's not the same thing. And that's why the Dow gold ratio is so important. And uh I think a lot of people might be um yeah might lose out trying to short uh to short uh the stock market. I think uh the best way really to protect yourself in this coming meltup that I think we're we're going to see um the meltup uh or cracker boom or hyperinflation or currency collapse is to have a good amount of physical gold and silver. That is the base in my opinion for uh the environment that we're in.

[00:06:04]And we can see that central banks around the world are continuing to accumulate gold. Especially the Chinese, they know what's coming. Unfortunately, in the West, especially here in the UK, uh our politicians and our central bankers uh yeah, either they're uh well, I think they're incompetent and they have no idea. They they think that gold is a barbarous relic. But uh so that's what I'm trying to say here. Uh we could continue to see the Dow, the NASDAQ, the S&P continue to go higher in in fiat dollars. Uh but uh in gold they could uh turn back down and uh we could uh be at uh let's say a much lower Dow gold ratio and it will help requify keep the stock market going and very few people look look at this of course. So that's what we're going to do today. So I've got a Dow gold ratio here a monthly chart. Uh it goes back uh on uh Trading View well all the way to let's see August 1896. So it's a very long-term chart but a as you can see back during the uh 1920s that ratio on the monthly ba well it got up to almost 19.

[00:07:40]uh in 19 66 it got up to 28 and uh yeah at the heights of the dotcom bubble uh it got up to almost 45. So that was the most overvalued the stock market uh has ever been since re uh versus real money. And the reason I say real money and most of you who follow or have been following me for many years know why because gold is money and everything else is credit as the JP Morgans uh once said in a testimony to Congress. So if we look where we are now we are the Dow gold ratio it's at 1129.

[00:08:26]Yes. And I I do expect it to go to at least one one to one. As you can see, this is a megaphone formation that we have. Back in uh 1933, it went down to 1.83 roughly around two.

[00:08:43]Uh back in 1980, we got down to one, I think. Yeah, gold was uh around 850 and the Dow was around 850.

[00:08:55]And in 2011, we got down to around six.

[00:08:59]And we've had a counter trend rally in relative terms for for stocks. Yes. And earlier this year when when gold is doing really well, uh this ratio got down to uh just below nine and it's now rebounded. But I I think it's uh yeah, it's a correction in the bare market, a bare market in terms of the Dow uh gold ratio. And uh yeah, we could go back up uh continue to go higher maybe towards the uh 12 level which was the low back in March 2020.

[00:09:35]But I I do expect this to start killing over this uh Dow gold ratio. And uh so it looks like we're very close to u a juncture where gold will uh start outperforming uh stock market again. And how will that translate in terms of prices for the stock market and for gold? Well, I I I think uh gold will just start going up faster than the stock market. The stock market is going to stay strong.

[00:10:11]And and a lot of people in my opinion uh a lot of people who are pointing to all these indicators that are hugely hugely bullish or or bearish, excuse me, that we need to see a crash. Uh I think they'll be proven wrong. But what people are not going to be looking at is is the fact that the the stock market is quickly depreciating in real terms. And by real terms I don't mean uh fiat dollars I mean gold and I think the same thing will be you can look at the same thing in terms of silver uh silver is going to outperform the stock market as well and uh yeah I could see uh in the next few years a point where you need less than an ounce of gold to buy one Dow And it could be at 50,000.

[00:11:10]Uh it it could be at 75,000 or it could even be at 10,000. But even if gold is only at 10,000 and you might say only at 10,000, uh you could see the the Dow, I guess eventually the Dow and the stock market crash, but I I'm leaning more towards the high numbers because that's what a meltup would signify.

[00:11:38]I I think the most important thing for investors is to realize that the currency uh the fiat currency the dollar is on its way out in terms of purchasing power. I'm not saying it's not going to be around. It will be around. It it will at one point of course uh probably need some kind of reorganization like we saw in Weimar Germany like we've seen in many third world countries and this is not just happening in the US of course it's going to happen all over the world and I think uh people like the Chinese they know this is coming they're not silly and that's why they're buying gold handover fist they've got a lot more than just 2,000 300 tons the as as a country the official reserves I don't think they're letting the the world know how much gold they really have. There's speculation they have as much as 30,000. I I think it's the US unfortunately that probably doesn't have as much gold as it publicizes the uh 8.1 uh 8,133 or so metric tonses or 261.5 million troy ounces and even President Trump has come out saying that they need to do an audit and the thing is the gold might be at Fort Knox some of the gold because some of it is also kept in other depositories but most of is in Fort Knox. It it might be there physically, but it might might have been leased out.

[00:13:18]So, it's encumbered.

[00:13:21]Uh what what happens when that happens?

[00:13:23]Well, you need to close the leases, which means buying back the gold. So, that's uh how I see things. And my uh take on this is that I'm going to hold on to my physical gold and silver for dear life. A and I I also think uh that the uh mining uh mining stocks in both gold and silver are hugely undervalued.

[00:13:55]uh while they're hugely undervalued versus the general stock market, but they're also very undervalued versus the underlying commodity or the bullion. So, I'm going to continue to hold on to that more as speculative, which means I won't have as big a percentage of my savings in that. I I think you need to have a a base of physical gold and silver for your savings. uh that's the most important thing uh and that allows you also to stay out outside the financial system and I do realize that having the mining stocks is being in the financial system so you need to keep that in mind.

[00:14:37]Um in terms of the markets this morning, yes, we saw gold and silver get hit. uh we saw uh treasury yields go up and uh a lot of people a lot of the alos and we saw oil go up a lot a lot of the alos are set to sell gold and silver when that happens and vi and and vice versa and today yields have come back down uh I see that the uh oil prices down slightly so gold and silver are rebounding and this is just short-term speculative noise in my opinion longer term.

[00:15:19]Uh it's people are going to look back in a year or two and say, "Well, I should have bought gold at 4 a.5,000. I should have bought silver below 80." I think a lot of people are going to be kicking themselves. And it's typical of in uh retail investors or people in general.

[00:15:38]They like to buy things when it's going up, but they ignore it when it's going down. and and that's why sentiment is so low in the precious metal sector right now. But anyway, it's just before 7 a.m.

[00:15:51]London.

[00:15:53]Uh and spot gold is at 4522. It's up 37 bucks.

[00:15:59]Uh silver is up $1.70 or 2.3% at 7658.

[00:16:06]Uh the Dow futures is down 171 which is not much really. It's only.3 of a percent. S&P as well is down 20 points, a quarter of a percent and the NASDAQ 100 is down a third. And yes, there's a lot of attention on these AI IPOs or SpaceX. This is the huge thing where people are focusing on and uh there's no focus on the real world, which is what mining and hard assets is all about. And people forget that you you need all that real thing those real things to to keep uh tech going to keep AI going energy um to launch rockets or whatever and I think uh the sector is being totally neglected and I think that's where the value is and of course this is not financial advice this is just what I think. Uh yeah, with that I'm going to wish you all a very good day. Take care.

[00:17:13]Bye.