BITCOIN: The Bigger They Are, The Harder They Fall

Added: 2026-06-03

[00:00:00]I have a sore throat. Bear with me. I might sound very groany and grumbly today, but we're just going to dive straight into it. We have very important lines on Bitcoin offering big, big, big support. One of them is a line on the logarithmic chart going back to 2018.

[00:00:14]It's never been broken before. It's 8 years old. It's held throughout major corrections historically speaking. It's held for the last 4 months of intensive retests. And another big line is the cost of production indicator. Another major support zone offering support in that 60k region just like the line we just showed. And that is an indicator coming from the more on-chain perspective. The cost of production indicator is described by its name. It's self-descriptive. It is how many US dollars it takes to produce one singular Bitcoin from a mining perspective. And as you can see, it has acted as a price floor on Bitcoin historically quite well. We do dip below it occasionally.

[00:00:52]It does move down with occasionally as miners adjust how much they're mining or whether they're mining or not. The cost can sometimes decrease slightly. But overall, it trends upwards and overall, it's acted as a pretty significant price floor for Bitcoin. So, these two indicators have given uh bulls, Bitcoin bulls, people who think that Bitcoin has seen its bottom, people who think that Bitcoin will break the four-year cycle, it's given them some hope. But I want to make something very clear. It is a rookie error to look at lines that have never broken before and suggest that they will never break.

[00:01:24]Okay? Lines that have never broken before always have existed on Bitcoin and very, very often they break. So, with the bullishness of these support zones in mind, I want to take a look at the actual bearishness that's happening on the Bitcoin charts right now with the recent rejection and failed break out above 80k. And with a very major trend, which is the 749-day trend from the halving to a collapse that has happened each cycle, then I'm actually going to ground the bearishness in reality as well and point to the fact that even though we do lean bearish here, very very cleanly lean bearish, we still haven't seen the actual breakdowns fully occur, fully materialize yet. So, perhaps even though we should be taking a bearish bearish stance, we shouldn't be jumping into massive short positions quite yet because we haven't seen the active breakouts. I would actually say that these two indicators here specifically put Bitcoin on the edge of a very very big cliff and the recent price action suggests the volatility is ramping up.

[00:02:22]And I think that cliff will be tested this month. By the way, 66% of you believe that cliff will be tested and we will fall off of it this month. There's that poll result right there. 66% of the audience thinks we'll be breaking below 60k by July 1st. That's very interesting. I actually tend to agree.

[00:02:39]Bitrue next, global non-KYC, never hacked before, been on the market for 4 and 1/2 years without a single security breach while maintaining global non-KYC status. I challenge you to find an exchange that has all of those things. I literally challenge you to do it. Good luck. It's not out there, okay? I use Bitrue next for a reason. It's because I think it is the best exchange on the market. I'm not obliged to say that. I don't have a contract with them. I say that out of my own free will. I use this exchange personally for a reason. Use it down below. You can get my link down below. That link will get you a 15% lifetime trading fee discount. So, it's really a no-brainer. Use the link, help out the channel. I appreciate it. Get that discount. Let's dive in. The entirety of this bear market has been framed pretty well by looking at the 2022 bear market fractal. 2022 was characterized by a five-step bear market. Step one was the top, which was a rounding top. Step two was a channel formation. Step three was sideways consolidation. Step four was another big sideways consolidation. Step five was a rounding bottom.

[00:03:37]That's >> [clears throat] >> Apologies, my throat is so sore. That seems to be the structure we are following at this point. Rounding top for step one. Step two is an ascending channel. Step three was sideways consolidation. Step four, hopefully, will be sideways consolidation as well.

[00:03:52]And step five, uh if this trend will continue all the way to the end, will be a rounding bottom. This trend doesn't have to continue all the way to the end.

[00:03:59]Certainly doesn't. Certainly can break.

[00:04:00]Uh certainly can deviate. Um I'm not saying it will hold all the way to the end. I think it might be It's strange if it does actually, seeing an identical bear market. Uh but at this point, it seems to be holding. Okay, yes, step three specifically has quite a bit of deviation from a time-based perspective, but we're talking about structure, not necessarily time. Uh and if we're talking on the topic of similarities from 2022 to this bear market, we can simply just look at the most recent price action. We saw a deviation above $80,000 and we saw within that deviation a rejection. We reached a peak at the 200-day simple moving average before coming back down with very sharply. This all happened within the context of an ascending channel. That's exactly what we saw in 2022. Within the context, again, of an ascending channel, we saw a breakout above a horizontal price range.

[00:04:46]That horizontal breakout was short-lived. It was rejected by the 200-day simple moving average and we went downwards from there. Furthermore, the exact same period of time in which this rejection has happened in this cycle and the rejection happened in 2022, by the way, both of which are very heavily related as we just discussed, the exact same period of time in which that's happened is relevant and relative to the 749-day trend on Bitcoin. What is this trend?

[00:05:12]This is a trend that suggests that after the halving, there is a 749-day period of time before the next cataclysmic drop that occurs on Bitcoin, okay? This happened successfully in 2014. It happened pretty successfully in 2018. It was a 30% drop. It happened successfully in 2022 and it seems to be happening right now because it's 749 days after the halving. Guess when that was, guys? It was the exact peak day of this range breakout we saw, which lines up with the 2022 relative period of time. There's the 200-day rejection. There's the breakout above the range that led to a fake out.

[00:05:49]There's the drop. Okay, same thing this time. And again, all of this is in context with a larger 2022 fractal. So, the point I'm trying to make here uh by looking at these three charts. Here's chart number one. Here's chart number two. Here's chart number three. The point I'm trying to make, in a very convoluted way, is that there are intense similarities to 2022. And those intense similarities suggest that we're still within a regular cyclical framework. We're still within a normal 4-year cycle. Because, of course, if you are in There it is. My 4-year cycle. If you are in the 4-year cycle, you should be seeing similarities. Because the cycle, as per it being a cycle, is going to have similarities. It's going to rhyme each time. Not necessarily be identical, but rhyme. So, when I see Bitcoin having these major support zones from the cost of production indicator and from this logarithmic uh line right here, which has held uh for the entirety of its existence since 2018. When I see local support that's being retested right now as we speak, uh coming back to the start of this range. When I see the USDT dominance chart, which is reverse correlated to Bitcoin, finding heavy resistance, which is slowing down its breakout above the bullish pennant formation, which of course means that Bitcoin is still on support. I don't just see support, and I don't just immediately jump to oh, there is support, therefore Bitcoin is bullish. I take a more nuanced viewpoint that many people are not capable of taking because they don't have the education that I do.

[00:07:14]And that nuanced nuanced viewpoint is basically, yeah, there is support, but support breaks all the bloody time. For example, take a look at the 200-week moving average. It offered support, confirmed proper support, and marked the bottom in 2015, 2018, 2020. People thought it was going to mark the bottom in 2022 as well. It didn't. But guess what? Before we broke it completely, it was very briefly a support zone there on a short-term level that people thought was going to hold. It didn't hold. We broke it completely, and right now it seems to be holding again in this price region, but we know that it's not infallible, even though it's important, even right now as we test it at 60,000 and hold it.

[00:07:55]We know it's not infallible because of what happened historically. If the cost of production indicator was to hold, if that was to be what marks the bottom, we'd also lose other infallible indicators that have never broken before, like the logarithmic regression channel, the logarithmic regression channel, which is based on eight separate data points, not just one, two, three, four, which is what this indicator, the cost of production indicator, is based on. This logarithmic regression channel has existed since 2011. It has marked every single top and every single bottom on a two basis, independently verifiable indicator. One of them being the top, one of them being the bottom, okay? And both of which have, not by coincidence, but by the fact that they work in in harmony together, formed a parallel channel independently, okay? This is another infallible indicator that is just as important, probably more important, probably more valid than something like the cost of production indicator. And if you were to rely entirely on the cost of production indicator, and if you were to claim that this is the be-all end-all, and we're going to bottom here because we've never broken it before, we'd be breaking other indicators that we'd never broken before. So, my point is, just because an indicator has never broken before, and just because it looks strong, it doesn't mean it will continue to persist and be strong in the future.

[00:09:13]We cannot ignore the entire structure of this bear market, which at this point is the 2022 fractal. We cannot ignore the recent price action. We cannot ignore trends like the 749-day trend. And most importantly, this is the very important part, we cannot ignore the four-year cycle just because this is a support zone that looks convincing. Now, if we saw a bounce from this level, we saw a bounce from the cost of production indicator, and it took us definitively above the range, not by a fake out like what we just saw, but actually a proper breakout, and it took us to a higher high on a macro level above $98,000, then cool. The support worked, the cycle is broken, and we can go to the moon.

[00:09:53]But at this point, this support zone, well, no matter how strong it is, no matter what it comes from, is literally just a support zone. We tested it 4 months ago, and since then we've seen it nothing but pretty much short-term weakness. There's no real reason to change our biases here just because it exists. Bitcoin used to be very closely connected to the S&P 500, and in recent, pretty much the last year, let's be honest, but mostly since October 2025, and even in the last couple of weeks as the S&P powers up to new all-time highs, we're dropping, guys. We're dropping because Bitcoin, at the end of the day, is following the cycle more than it's following any other thing. More than it's following traditional markets, more than it's following the macroeconomy, more than it's following any arbitrary support zone we can pull out of thin air, like the cost of production indicator, and the like this line that's existed since 2018. There's always going to be more lines, there's always going to be more support zones, you can always draw new things, but you can't draw a new cycle, and you can't draw new deviations from what Bitcoin has always followed.

[00:10:55]As now Bitcoin in this deviation is proving that it's following the cycle above all else. So, it's not infallible, cycle can certainly break, the support can certainly hold, the bulls could be right, but we need to see actual freaking evidence of it first. We need to see some positive price action that comes from these support zones. The support zone itself is not a strong enough argument for bullishness.

[00:11:17]I'll just conclude with this one more time. There's always going to be support, it's always going to look convincing, it doesn't mean it'll actually lead to a proper bounce. So, this was probably the most convoluted and probably the least articulate video I've made in a long time. I throw it as so slow, I'm just trying to get this out to you guys, quite frankly, but I think I've made my point. Thanks for bearing with me. I really appreciate it. If you appreciate the content, go ahead and check out the Bitrue Next exchange. It's a global non-KYC exchange that's never been hacked before. I said in the introduction, I'll say it again, good luck finding something that is global, non-KYC, and never hacked. It's It's very rare.

[00:11:53]Uh it's probably one of the other exchanges at this point on the market with those three characteristics and maintaining good liquidity, for example.

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