Who won: Pac-12 or MW?... plus Civil War, TV times, Kickoffs, Big Ten, SEC

Added: 2026-05-30

[00:00:02]We've got a ton of stuff to talk about.

[00:00:04]I'm John Kzano. We've got a great episode. He's John Wilner. You can find me at johnzano.com. You can find him at wilnerhotline.com.

[00:00:12]Wilner, um, where do we start, man? We are catching up here. We're moving forward. We've got a bunch of topics.

[00:00:19]Where do you want to start?

[00:00:21]>> It is so busy. It is incredible how busy May and June have become in college sports. They used to be slow. Now, not only are they busy, but that's when all the important stuff happens, right?

[00:00:32]>> What are they doing? What are they doing to us?

[00:00:36]>> Running us into the ground. Um, and last week I was in LA for the Big 10 meeting, so we didn't we did not have an episode.

[00:00:43]So, we do have a lot to catch up on.

[00:00:45]>> Oh, yeah. Let's start Let's do that then. Let's start with the the settlement. We got to talk about the settlement.

[00:00:50]>> Oh, yeah.

[00:00:51]>> Pack 12 Mountain West settlement numbers flying out all over the place. Um uh look, these two entities, we knew it would end in a settlement. This show predicted it would end in a settlement.

[00:01:03]You and I had talked to a variety of people who had uh no dog in the fight and sometimes a dog in the fight and they thought it would end in a settlement. Um not a big surprise. The timing of it is interesting. It comes a day before there was to be a hearing on discovery in that northern district court in your backyard there. Uh it comes as the Pack 12 is reconstituting and wanting no cloud hanging overhead.

[00:01:28]Um but we've got some numbers. You and I I think we're in the same ballpark on what we think the numbers are. But you know it was let for people who don't know it was $55 million that the Mountain West wanted from the Pack 12 in poaching penalties. It was about another 105 million maximum that they wanted from the five departing members in exit fees. Somewhere around 21 million per school was kind of at the top of that figure. They had uh they had engaged in mediation uh what last summer, last May, last June.

[00:02:01]>> Um used a retired federal judge. Wilner, where do you sort of see the settlement following? What numbers do you expect when we ultimately get the leak of leaks that this is going to fall on?

[00:02:14]>> Yeah, it'll be interesting to see how much leak. So, there is uh my understanding is there's a term sheet for some that there is no long form deal yet.

[00:02:22]>> And I believe that that's got to be finished by is it June 2nd? I think is the posting date for for that. And then there's a another a meeting scheduled for the 9th I want to say. So, it's possible something will leak out here.

[00:02:36]Uh, but they've been pretty good. I have to say they've been pretty good about keeping quiet. Uh, my my guess is somewhere in the they came in mid60s, right? Mid low 60s would be kind of where I'd put the number. I think what you mentioned about the timing, right?

[00:02:54]In late March, the judge ruled in favor of the Pack 12, compelling the Mountain West to turn over emails from the presidents. Mountain West had push pushed back on that. Judge said, "Nope, those are valid." So, the emails become part of the discovery. The day before discovery hearing, there's a believe there's a settlement. Wow. Uh certainly a connection there. I think it's uh you know, PA 12 certainly came out on the on the right end of this would be my guess.

[00:03:23]And I I think I published something on social media right around 65. I' 65 maybe a little lower than 65 somewhere in there. What do you think? I think it's going to be a touch higher, but I think we're in the same ballpark. I think we're in the same ballpark. I I you know, you know, I was told by a source that the number they ended up on was essentially the number that they were mediating on last May and June. And you know, and uh and and we were we were told all along, attorneys that I litigators that I talked to all along said, "Hey, a really good settlement is going to end with both sides being unhappy." But I have to say, um, I'm seeing a little bit of a half smile on the Pack 12 footprint, right? Like it's not like a full-blown celebration.

[00:04:07]Nobody's doing a cartwheel paying what could be 65 to 70 million. I'm a little higher than you. I think that number is going to inch towards 70. But I think that, you know, it is less than half of the 155 million that the Mountain West was seeking. Uh, and I think that's a victory for the Pack 12. Well, and the other piece to it is it you have to kind of take it as what's the net total, right? Because think about if they got a number, if they settled on a number that they could have had a year ago, what are the attorney fees, right? You got to kind of consider that aspect of it. Did the Mountain West basically waste a year of attorney fees on on this settlement?

[00:04:48]So, uh I don't know. We we'll figure out what the attorney fees are uh once the e the conference's 990s are made available in a few years. But you know that's a piece of it too. Did was there a year wasted? Mountain West must got the deal they could have gotten last May. That's something to consider as well.

[00:05:06]>> I think too if you're the Mountain West, one of the one of the things that you were really after here is you wanted to retain Air Force and UNLV. So ultimately, I'm watching those two schools like a lot of other people are going, "Okay, did they get enough? Did they get enough that those schools aren't going to get restless? Did they get enough that those schools aren't going to challenge the grant of rights?"

[00:05:27]So, in that sense, it could become more of a win for the Mountain West if UNLV and Air Force say, "Yeah, we're bound by the Grant of Rights. It's enough for us to stay. We're we're in this for the next few years until we see what happens." So there, you know, I still think the Mountain West could claim a little bit of a victory there. Do but do you think like I've been kind of talking to people about this. What is the number that would force UNLV to say all right we're out of here? Because I think UNLV just wants to stay because their bigger strategy is to get into the Big 12 eventually and they view being big fish small pond as the best strategy for doing that. So, their first uh you know, let's say they get their first aotment of what is it 14.95 15 million. Maybe they don't get much more. But is that even going to spur them to leave? I don't think they want to go.

[00:06:21]>> I I think some of that really is going to depend on this college football season, right? Maybe it's not a number, but maybe it's UNLV's eyes opening to the idea that, oh crap, we're nowhere near the CFP and schools in the American and schools in the Pack 12 have a much better path into the College Football Playoff. if that if that proves to be true. So, to me, it's that's more of a question that I think we're going to get an answer to as the college football season unfolds. But you're right, UNLV got invited twice and twice they said, "We're not going to prom with you." And so, at some point, you kind of have to wonder, do they just not have the appetite for risk? Uh do they not have uh you know, are they not restless enough? Do they view themselves, as you say, big fish in a small pond? I do know that there's some other schools in that conference that are still in the Mountain West. Um, you know, I'm talking to some of those other schools and they're going, "Hey, do you think UNLV is going to leave?" And I think there's a little bit of, you know, there's a little hope there that, hey, if UNLV leaves, they're better situated because they're looking at UNLV as, hey, they've got financial advantages. They're playing in an NFL stadium. They're in a better city to recruit to. So, there's some advantages that UNLV has within that conference, but I think we have to wait for this football season to really know like is the path to the playoff just closed down or too narrow for UNLV in the Mountain West? And that's maybe a question we'll get a little bit of an answer to in this football season.

[00:07:46]>> That could be. And we also may see if there's another option for the Pack 12 that emerges from this football season, >> you know, because right now there aren't there aren't very many good options if they want to add one more school to get to 10 in basketball and nine in football, you know, just not great options at all. So, >> yeah. And it's kind it's kind of why I I I kind of think like if if the Pack 12 doesn't get UNLV, >> then it I think it becomes who can they get as a football only member or who can they get to schedule them? Can they create a little scheduling alliance with the American? can they you know or somebody else in the sunb belt somebody um because I just don't see these presidents you've talked to these presidents I've talked to a number of these presidents they don't sound right now to me like they feel like they have to do something >> um I'm not sure I would be in that camp because I kind of think you need a football playing member I would be a little more aggressive but but I just don't feel and hear from those presidents that they're they're willing to kind of make a concession or settle or >> you take a less than option.

[00:08:52]>> They definitely don't want to settle.

[00:08:54]>> You mentioned being uh at the Big 10 meetings, the Big 10 and the SEC meetings taking place.

[00:09:00]>> What did you get out of this?

[00:09:01]>> So, that's we actually perfect segue because we were just talking about >> the competition on the field, UNLV looking at, you know, the playoff uh situation, Pack 12, non-pack 12. And the playoff was a huge topic of discussion last week and at the big 10 meetings in in Rancho Palace Veries at uh Terrana, a seaside resort overlooking the Pacific. I mean, it was was I know they got a rack rate, but it was >> that's why they wanted that's why they wanted UCLA and USC.

[00:09:34]>> Awfully nice.

[00:09:36]>> Uh Larry Scott might have even thought it was uh it was pretty nice. Um so the main topics the the main thing when Tony Patiti Big 10 commissioner you know met with us on uh a week ago Tuesday was for an hour and I would guess 40 45 minutes of it was spent on the playoff right he is the author of the 2014 playoff proposal which now has support really from everybody except for the SEC. the Big 10 and the SEC have to agree on expansion on a number otherwise it's going to stay at 12 and it is clear based on what Petiti said he was asked specifically did you talk about a 16 team playoff during your three days of meetings and he said no we didn't even talk about it meanwhile the SEC meetings are going on right now in Dest Florida and Greg Sanki SEC commissioner first day of the meetings comes out he you know he favors 16 And uh we're kind of in this stalemate and I we talk about it a lot but the playoff is the most important element in the sport and it is gaining significance by the week and that is one of the SEC's concerns is that it is going to they go to 24 it is going to completely overshadow the regular season which will lose value and eventually that losing loss of value in the regular season will hurt the sport itself. So, I'll uh I'll stand down here, but 2014 playoff was the dominant issue at the Big 10 meetings.

[00:11:13]>> Yeah. And look, I've said this before and I'm going to say it again for anybody who hasn't heard it, like, you know, we can talk about this being an SEC Big 10 standoff, but the more you unpack it, it really does become about Fox and ESPN and these two tent pole conferences of of those two entities. Is it as simple, Wilner, as that ESPN's got control of the thing right now and they'd like to stay smaller? They don't want to give up more inventory. Fox would come in and become a bigger partner potentially. Is it as simple as that? Or is there another reason that ESPN and the SEC want this to stay at 16 and the Big 10 wants it to grow to 24?

[00:11:54]>> Right. You've got ESPN and the SEC on one side of the table and Fox and the Big 10 on the other side of the table. I happen to believe that the Big 10 arrived at its proposal of 24 teams independent from what Fox wanted. That said, Fox also wants 24 because they want a piece of the action. So the way the deal is currently, >> ESPN owns owns the rights up to a 14 team event, right? So if they add if they go to 16, the extra inventory that would be available to Fox is is is minute. So Fox wants 24 because that would give them the chance to bid on 10 games.

[00:12:36]>> Yeah.

[00:12:37]>> You know, maybe even even 12 games. Um and the big question is how much are those 12 worth? Right. Here's quick math. The the current conference championship games are over $200 million in value. and the SEC game alone is probably 100 million, 80 to 100 million.

[00:12:56]If they go to a 2014 playoff, they're getting rid of those championship games.

[00:12:59]So, they got to find a way with the 10 or actually 12 new playoff games, can that equal or surpass the amount that they would give up from losing the conference championships? So, that's the big question. How much is number nine verse number 24 and 10 verse 23 actually worth >> on the media market? If if the total of the new games that are added, the new inventory doesn't get to the point or exceed what the conference championships are worth, then they don't have a financial reason to do it. Tony Patiti seems to believe that they will exceed the amount and make it worthwhile. I I'm not as convinced. I'm also not as convinced as he is that going to a 2014 playoff will prompt teams to schedule tougher non-conference games. Like right now, let's, you know, pick a team. Penn State doesn't want to play a power five, power four opponent because they're worried that that loss in September would undercut them in uh this playoff selection process. But if you go to 24, then you're going to have teams that are nine and three and eight and four making the field. So Patiti thinks, look, they'll schedule everybody will schedule tougher games in September. I don't know that's true.

[00:14:15]>> No, >> coaches don't think like that.

[00:14:18]>> No, it's not a thing. They want wins and they >> they want wins.

[00:14:21]>> They're afraid to lose games. They're not going to schedule that way.

[00:14:25]>> They want Right. So then if you if you go to 24, sorry, if you go to 24 and they don't make the schedules tougher, then it's the worst of both worlds.

[00:14:34]>> Yeah. I think ideally if you were thinking about the health of the game, you would expand very slowly. You would do it very carefully. You would do but that's not >> any common sense. We don't need thinks either. Like they just run for the hills and they run towards the money with open arms. Everybody running towards the money. And that's how USC and UCLA end up in the Big 10. You know, they you would have if you had gone slowly with this, you would have said, "Hey, we need five conferences. we need good geographic distribution of the of the uh of the brands. Um, and it would be great to kind of put this thing together in a sensical way, but instead you've got just total chaos. So, I I I think they're going to end up at 24. What do you think? I think they will end up at 24. I to me the question is whether the SEC can leverage a couple years of 16 >> potentially. That's what's Seni kind of views it that way like why are we rushing? We don't have the data yet.

[00:15:33]Let's see what the numbers say. Um, what other sport after two you triple the size of your postseason and then two years later you double it.

[00:15:42]>> Nobody else is going to do that.

[00:15:44]>> I don't understand the rush. To me, the biggest issue >> is if you go to 24, there is no going back, right? You're burning your boats.

[00:15:53]>> Yeah.

[00:15:53]>> What if what if it doesn't work? What if 24 doesn't work and they and they can't go back? What if AI, something involving AI or the enrollment cliff universities are facing or something involving Notre Dame's conference affiliation or the NFL? There's all these unknowns out there. The X factor, the Y factor, the Z factor and they're making this move before they have any answers and they could get caught and it could backfire and then they're in huge trouble.

[00:16:21]There's no rush. There's no rush, but they're rushing. I I do look at the lower levels and you see a 2014 playoff that is a beautiful thing. You see bigger brackets. Um you know, more inclusion, more teams in the playoff, more bonuses for these coaches. Um and we'll see how that we'll see how that unfolds.

[00:16:42]>> Bingo. More bonuses, more job security.

[00:16:45]>> Speaking of contracts, uh how about this one? Civil War Football Series is extended. Oregon State and Oregon agreeing to extend the series 2028.

[00:16:54]They'll play it in Corvalis. 29 they'll go to Eugene. Uh they'll skip 2030 for now. 2031 will also be in Eugene and then back in Corvalis in 2032.

[00:17:06]Um this is good. There's reasons to play this series. Not all the fans love this thing because it it it has become a little lopsided with Oregon in the Big 10 with bigger revenue. But there's a reason Oregon State wants this game, too. It's a Big 10 opponent at Reese Stadium. Heck yes. It's a road game where you don't have to get on a plane for both teams. It's good for the, you know, it's good for the sort of the camaraderie in the state. Um, I wish it were more competitive. We'll see how uh, you know, Jamarcus Shepard can make this thing. And can Oregon State funding the way they're funding in the New World Pack 12, can they get Oregon even within view of the front windshield in a game?

[00:17:46]Yeah, we'll we'll see. But I like that they're trying to continue this thing because I think if you totally give up on it now, you don't play it, I don't think it ever comes back. So I I think you give yourself a chance to have this be a renewed rivalry and it's a financial win for Oregon State. It becomes part of the Pack 12's TV deal in those that first year and that last year because the game is being played in in Corvalis. So that is a big deal for the Pack 12's TV partners.

[00:18:13]>> Um what do you make of this? I think it's good and I I understand Oregon State fans who think like Washington State fans who don't want to play Washington, Oregon State fans who don't want to play Oregon, but I totally disagree with that. I think you need to take advantage of any chance you get to be on the same platform as a Big 10 team that is also your instate rival. Uh to me, uh at this point, everybody expects Oregon State to lose by 30 or 40 points.

[00:18:44]So, anything other than that is is in a lot of ways a victory for them. Uh it's it's too good of a product for uh for the Beavers. It's too important for college football out west for these kind of games to go away, right? Let's hope the Apple Cup continues. Uh it's it's under contract for a few more years. We need both of these. Were Were you surprised? Did you did you know that they were working hard behind the scenes to get this thing extended? I knew they were working on it, but I was surprised that they rolled it out, you know, in the same time that their baseball teams are playing in this Eugene regional in the postseason. That is a very fierce rivalry with the fans just going at each other this week. And that, you know, that game those potentially in on Saturday in Eugene could be could be a fantastic game with big atmosphere. But um I I was a little surprised they rolled it out the way they did. I knew they were working on it. It looks to me like, you know, everybody's asking what's happening in 2030. Well, you know, they're they're going Corvalis Eugene right now a year off Eugene Corvalis. So, I think, you know, 20 getting that game back on 2030 is incumbent upon um the Ducks having the opening and the Beavers having the opening and them being willing to play.

[00:20:00]I think that thing will come back together. They don't want to have this be interrupted again. It's going to be interrupted, you know, coming up here, but um I think this is good. I think this is good despite the fact that it might not be competitive for for the next few years.

[00:20:14]>> You got to play it. And for Oregon State fans who don't get it, this is a financial win for Oregon State. It's a Big 10 team is not coming to Reer Stadium to play a game.

[00:20:25]>> Um, and you're getting Oregon at Reer Stadium. It's good for your TV. It's good for your conference. It's good for your bottom line, your season ticket package. Yep. Um, but you know, Jamarcus Shepard, you got what? You got you better get recruiting because you know that's going to be a challenge.

[00:20:44]>> Yep. The other piece is because everything gets back to the playoff. You know, if they go to a 2014 playoff, there's a chance that the Big 10 and SEC will explore some scheduling options together. And that means the availab Oregon's availability for games like this could could be reduced. And same with other teams in the Big 10 and SEC.

[00:21:10]There could be very few opportunities for a Pack 12 or group of six team to get a Big 10 team to come to their home home turf. Even even fewer opportunities than currently exists. And so the Beavers have kind of they've gotten a stake in that ground. uh no matter what happens now with the playoff and the downstream effects from that. So that is kind of a a small win for them if you're looking at over the next five years.

[00:21:35]>> Yeah. And and remember Boise State two years ago did not beat Oregon. They just played Oregon to the wire and they used that as sort of exhibit A of why they belonged in the playoff. And so, you know, I know Oregon they're they're playing Boyisey State this year. Broncos are happy about that. But, you know, Oregon was supposed to go to Boisey and had bought their way out of that game, you know, and and so look, if you're Oregon State and you're one of these fans who's saying, "Oh, this is terrible. This is awful." You know, no, this is good for Oregon State and it's good for Oregon as well because Oregon, it's all that travel, everything aside, Oregon's going to be able to get on a bus, go 44 miles, and play a road game.

[00:22:17]Uh, that feels a lot like a home game uh in some ways.

[00:22:22]Absolutely. A good segue to uh another good segue scheduling. Uh so today we're recording on Wednesday. Today's the big day. The conferences release their schedules for the first three weeks of the season and the TV networks. And in the case of the Pack 12, they release their sk their kickoff times for the whole season except for the flex week.

[00:22:46]Uh I never seen that before. first time conference has ever ever been able to basically release every kickoff game for all their all their league games. Uh Pack 12 can do it because of their unique TV arrangement. What uh anything jump out to you?

[00:23:03]>> Just that that was the first thing because you know there were two things that I think two or three things that were hangovers from sort of the Larry Scott era of the Pack 12 that a lot of fans were upset with and one was you know the availability of the Pack 12 networks. couldn't get it right.

[00:23:18]Couldn't get it everywhere. Well, guess what? This conference is going to be on linear TV. You can you should be able to get it anywhere you go. Second thing was you never knew when they were going to play. It was a frustration. And then when you did find them, they were late kickoffs. So, I particularly was tuned into the reasonable the the vast majority of reasonable kickoff times and the fact that, you know, you can make plans. You can you can you know, you can plan for a Saturday in the middle of college football season. in the way that you couldn't before. How about you?

[00:23:48]>> Yep.

[00:23:50]>> Well, uh, in terms of the Pack 12 specifically, the thing I was looking for is where are the CBS games, right?

[00:23:56]Those are the biggest in terms of visibility and platform, the three CBS games. And not surprisingly, they're they're in the non-conference games, right? I think we got uh what is it?

[00:24:06]Oregon State, Texas Tech, um, Colorado State, BYU, and Washington State, Arizona, right? All three are Pack 12 home games. Um, and that's all three are first three, four weeks of the season.

[00:24:22]And here's the important piece to me is all three are 430 coming out of the CBS Big 10 game.

[00:24:31]>> [clears throat] >> So, right, the the way the Big 10 TV deal works is Fox has got um the noon game, Eastern, CBS has the 3:30, 4:00 game, and then NBC's got the evening game. So, Pack 12 games will have um you know, they'll have that leadin from the Big 10 game on CBS. That should that should help, right? They're going to be during a Big 10 game. They're going to be broadcasting Arizona at Washington State, BYU at Colorado State. That's that will help boost the numbers. That to me, that was uh an interesting piece to it.

[00:25:09]>> Yeah. And I think too, if you're, you know, look, this is the >> the Pack 12's new thing. They're going to do some things that are different.

[00:25:17]They're do the flex scheduling. They're going to do, hey, we're going to release our TV times. I think they're going to do media day differently than it's ever been done before. But um I think you know it's on brand for the Pack 12 here.

[00:25:29]Let's why they're questioning why have we always done things the way we're do we're doing things. They get some exposure there as you mentioned on big CBS. Um you know but let's see how ready these teams are to compete in those games too. There's a big question with Washington State and Oregon State in particular first time first year head coaches on the big stage in those games.

[00:25:48]big state and I mean the Boise Oregon game week one is and that's actually a CBS game it's it's a Big 10 CBS game because it's in Eugene huge that's huge for the Pack 12 huge for the whole group of six uh actually the other thing I thought was really interesting is if you look at big the big noon games in week one and week three I mean big noon is Fox's biggest platform in college football right and week one it's uh Indiana is at home against North Texas and in week three it is Kent State at Ohio State and those are not games that Fox wants to be showing on Big Non, right? They want marquee high-profile matchups. And the fact is the Big 10 doesn't play that many high-profile non-conference games.

[00:26:36]And so they got stuck. Fox, the primary media partner of the Big 10, is stuck weeks one and three with bad games for its premier broadcast window.

[00:26:49]What could happen that would create better inventory for Fox? Well, they could expand the playoff to 24 teams, right? Because then maybe these teams will not be afraid of losing, so they'll schedule tougher games in September.

[00:27:02]That's a big reason Fox wants 24 teams is to help its inventory for big noon in September. It's all connected and it all gets back to the playoff and I I that is the direction we are headed to a greater extent even than we are right now is the media companies in are having a huge influence and the playoffs having a huge influence. Well, I think, you know, if college football were wise, it might look over at the NFL and say, "Okay, what makes that league go and what makes the playoff uh not marginalize the regular season?" And, you know, they're obviously the owners in the NFL are also greedy and they're on a money grab as well, trying, you know, talking about expanding to 18 games in the regular season, playing games all over the globe. It's got its own problems, but they don't have a problem with the playoff and the format and how it works.

[00:27:58]And so, I think the closer college football can get to the NFL in that way would be good. It would be beneficial because you don't see the league like, you know, you don't see the 49ers groaning that, you know, they've got to go to play a game at Denver in week six.

[00:28:14]You know, it's just that's how the schedule goes. And so, um, you know, they're not, those individual teams are not negotiating the games. The games are being made and they're made by a league that has an interest in the games being compelling. Um, and so you have a real problem in college football where everybody's trying to go undefeated and qualify for this playoff and there's a bit of a funnel getting into that playoff room.

[00:28:36]>> There is. Everything in college football is territorial. Everything in the NFL is centralized, right? Totally different operating structures. and one of them works better than the other. College football is still immensely popular, but there's a lot of problems and uh those many of those problems are caused by the way the way it operates. Uh you know, there's a the ongoing call for a college football commissioner or ZAR that would help, but the SEC and the Big 10 have no reason to to do that because they'd give up the control they already have.

[00:29:12]>> We've hit on a number of topics. Do you have a thought on the Mountain West Pack 12 settlement? Drop it in the comment section. How about uh the civil war ongoing? Are you in favor of it? Do you understand it? The Big 10 and the SEC.

[00:29:26]We talked about their strangle hold and their meetings. They're plotting. Of course, they're plotting. And the schedule release. Tell us in the comments section what you think. Find me at johnzano.com. Find him at willerhotline.com. And get yourself back here next week for an all new episode.

[00:29:40]>> Who know? By next week, the Big 10 and SEC could have decided they're going to leave the NCAA. The way things are going, >> we didn't even get into that. We'll hit that one next week.

[00:29:49]>> Well, we'll see. What are the odds? You put the odds that we can make another week on that?

[00:29:54]Uh, >> pretty good. I think we'll get we'll get there hopefully. All right. Next week, tune in.

[00:29:59]>> Thanks, everybody.