Weekly Update with Larry Berman - June 6, 2026

追加: 2026-06-07

[00:00:01][music] >> Everyone, it's Larry Berman here.

[00:00:32]Uh another interesting week in markets.

[00:00:35]Chart room tells us a lot. The economic output is confusing at best. Let's have a dive into the chart room. Okay, we'll get can out of the way. So, all the headlines this week in Canada was that we're in a recession. Two quarters of negative growth.

[00:00:52]>> [music] >> And then we see a massive jobs print of 154,000 full-time employees with a loss of 66,000 part-time employees. It's completely not credible in terms of the reporting coming out of Stats Can. I don't know how to dismiss this out of hand, but it's just absolutely bizarre given, you know, what's going on in the world today. When we look at the US side, you know, job growth that we saw in the US is really just again, hard to believe, but still very, very concentrated. And it's it's not making a lot of sense to me. I heard a lot of commentary post numbers on Friday. Clearly, this means the Fed can't cut would tilt them towards raising rates a bit. And that's of course, you know, an interesting outcome here because that's not going to fix anything going on in the straight of formus.

[00:01:54]When we're looking at the S&P 500, obviously cresting uh very overbought.

[00:02:00]Is it going to break down? Well, all the supply that's needed to fund the SpaceX uh issuance. You know, what what breaks this chart? Really nothing breaks this chart until we get rid of all this fluff and start breaking averages. When we broke the 200-day average in March, all it required was Trump pivot to change the trend anymore. So, you know, when we look at the charts, I don't know what to believe at this point, but right now below 550's needed to really break the bullish trend in technology.

[00:02:35]On the inflation side, obviously the energy story, which we'll look at in a second, come off the boil with you know, more talk of peace in the Middle East and extension of the ceasefire, but there's kinetic uh war just about every day these days. So, again, don't know who to believe, a lot of confusion.

[00:02:56]What the oil market tells us is long run, this is great. Long run prices are coming down. In the short run, the curve is actually flattening, but still elevated. So, we've got inflation concerns. Let's call it through the next 6 or 12 months before, you know, crude oil prices are now back below $70.

[00:03:17]I don't think the IRGC goes away here. I think there's more hot war coming. The question is timing. Can Trump delay this till after the midterms? The political factor is is a big wild card here, too, but markets are overvalued. SpaceX is ridiculously overvalued. You know, buy it if it if it sees a 50% haircut in the first year for those looking to play it.

[00:03:43]If you're a trader, good luck with that.

[00:03:45]I think it's going to be very, very confusing in terms of what it means for markets, but we did hear the Dow and Standard & Poor's won't include SpaceX or Anthropic or any of these big names that are coming public until 1 year of listing. So, that's good news, but the QQQ's and the Nasdaq, SpaceX is going to be in there in a week, and that to me is where the biggest index risk lies.

[00:04:12]Anyways, that's all we have this week.

[00:04:13]Have a great one, everyone.