Despite the sensationalist title, the analysis provides a sober reminder that technical breakouts are often traps when fundamental indicators remain weak. It correctly prioritizes market mechanics over mere chart patterns to help traders avoid the pitfalls of retail hype.
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If THIS Happens, Crypto Will PUMP!🚨 (Crypto Market Update)Añadido:
Good afternoon everybody. Welcome back to Selinix Crypto. I hope you're all doing great and welcome to this middle of the day market update. It's a little bit later because and that might also be relevant for for this video. Um they're working where I live and I think they hit a Wi-Fi cable. So I'm working on my um on my hotspot right now. Uh which isn't great. So if if at any point of time I'm not able to access any data, [snorts] then that's it. But at the moment, um, we've just had a high volume move right here. We're testing a critical level right here. That's [clears throat] also the bullish signal in [snorts] the thumbnail I was referring to. We broke above and that's what we're testing at this point of time. The previous week value area high.
And the big question right now is, okay, can we hold that? Yes or no? Um, because in the event that we are going to be able going to be able to hold that, we have already seen a lot of great rallies over the course of the last couple of days in the crypto markets. then then we can set off multiple more rallies for certain altcoins which I'll also uh touch upon a little bit later in the video. Um but therefore this is a a critical point of time for Bitcoin here shortterm. I think on the higher time frames here, 4hour time frame, um it it wouldn't necessarily mean we're going to get a huge move, but just a little bit of bullish momentum for Bitcoin, which seems harder with the minutes to still get a nice move from here. Uh but it's not impossible. But but getting a a bullish move into the upside for Bitcoin. So into the 30-day rolling VWAP at 78,700 or potentially a little bit higher into some some older gaps that we have.
um a little bit higher as you can see right here around 80 and 80,500.
Um a a bit of a bullish move or a bit of a move into the upside for Bitcoin would be good enough to see some more altcoin rallies. But we'll talk about that. And before we talk about that, obviously we need to have a little bit of context, okay? Do the fundamentals at the moment in the general financial markets, but in the crypto markets as well, do they look good enough? Are they strong enough to actually expect this move into the upside or could it just be a major fake out, a liquidation spike? At the moment, you can see the spike is a liquidation spike. Um because you can see the point of control is at the top, right? So, so that normally happens with a liquidation spike. Then most of the positions are closed at the top. So then the point of control becomes, you know, the it's it's at the high of the of the move. [snorts] Now, the fundamentals right now in the in the general markets are not great.
And honestly, while I'm making this video, I should have made the thumbnail red because you can see this move is definitely not looking great, but the fundamentals weren't great either.
Obviously, overnight, and we spoke about that extensively this morning, we had some sort of escalation in the Middle East. We don't fully know what happened yet. And that was very much the key fundamental catalyst or the key fundamental event this morning.
um that that really shook up the markets and that really decides on on on direction [snorts] and uh and at this point of time it's uh it's it's uncertain what's happening. US Navy restarts guiding ships through the straight of Hormuz but ultimately what this means is that oil prices have gone up slightly. volatility index is still very low to be honest but it's also up slightly and equities at the moment are still up right so so this is still good um the general financial fundamentals but then once we look at the crypto fundamentals um that's very bad right so order flow which is not really fundamentals it's more technical but still order [snorts] flow is bad you can see right here we had quite a lot of shorts exit exiting positions but at the same point of time funding rates still stayed very positive I would love to see funding rates turn negative. If funding rates get closer to negative or if they actually sustainably turn negative that would make the probability for a breakout and a movement to the upside in my opinion much much higher and then outside of that and we spoke about this extensively yesterday. What we want to see from the Coinbase Bitcoin discount which at this point of time is at a strong discount is that it bottoms right so that the discount becomes highest and then it starts to trend towards a premium again.
Yesterday we had a brief moment where we had hoped that that was happening.
Unfortunately, that turned around and you can see right now Coinbase bit Coinbase Bitcoin discount is is quite high again which is bearish. So ultimately these fundamentals are not really comforting for a move into the upside. And I have to say if we look at this move right here for Bitcoin the the absolute key level and that was also where my bullish signal was based on is 77,500.
If for some reason we're still able to get a break above that, we're still able to get a, you know, a close above that, then we can get a move into the upside, unfortunately, it looks more likely at this point of time we're going to drop down lower. Um, if we're talking about lower for Bitcoin, we have a strong support level at 76,000. I think that's potential support.
Um, or at least I I would say at the moment that I think that's most likely support. If we're unable to get a good reaction at 76,000, it's not a strong enough level that I would place limit orders there. If we're unable to get a good reaction at 76,000, so this is the 1 hour time frame. [snorts] Um, this price action is very bad, right? I I I would assume that we're going to push down lower, but like I said, I'm still, you know, active. I'm still focused on the on the breakouts above 77,600.
Um, but but if we're going to push down lower 76,000, that's the first support level. Get a good reaction there.
Something like this. and we can actually still expect a move into the upside back up to 77,500s, back up to 78,000 if we're unable to get a good reaction there. Um the next support level is the previous low at the previous quarter VWAP at 74,500.
Right? So it seems most likely right now for Bitcoin, although the general fundamental or the general [snorts] financial fundamentals, general financial market fundamentals look still quite good. Looks most likely that Bitcoin is going to test that level at least at 76,000 then potentially at 74,500.
I still do think it's most likely that we will find so this is on the higher time frames. We will find support somewhere there and that we can still get a move into the upside. Right? This price action it's very bad. Right?
Right. So, so I cannot be super bullish, but I do think at some point of time we'll find support and we'll still get up there. And that mostly has to do with the general financial market fundamentals, which are not too bad, right? I mean, even if you take a look at this, we've had escalation in the Middle East. A new agreement/ ceasefire before June the 30th is still sitting at 78%. Now, talking about Ethereum and XRP at the moment, there's not much going on. I know a lot of you are interested in that. For XRP, I would keep my eyes on 1.33 and 1.2. 28 1/2 cents. Those are the critical support levels that we have. And Ethereum at the moment, I would avoid I would avoid Ethereum [snorts] until we reclaim 2160 or until ETH BTC has found support. And I'll let you know. Now, uh unfortunately, we can not bank on that breakout above 77,500 for Bitcoin. It's still a possibility, but I would say the probability of that is very, very low. There's still some altcoins that I am interested in, right?
So, so earlier today like worldscoin I covered that this morning. Worlds coin has been incredibly strong. [snorts] Um, and I still do think you should pay attention to that. We have already hit my price target. So, this morning I said 41.5 cents, that's my price target. Hit that beautifully. I still think a pull back into 32 cents or potentially a breakout above 41 12 cents after cooling down a bit bit right here. I think that's still interesting. I still think Stellar XLM is quite interesting if we're going to be able to break above 15.3 cents. And I also think that plasma or XPL is looking interesting given the fact that it has reclaimed a structural level right here historically at 0.0875.
So if we're going to be able to hold that, I can see this rallying into 10 cents as well. Now what you might realize is that most of these coins render also looks very interesting. A lot of you are interested in that. I agree with that. Atom also is quite strong. What most of you might realize is that most coins that are doing very good at the moment have a generally low correlation to Bitcoin. Right? So if you're interested in altcoin, check that correlation. The lower like as long as an altcoin has a lot of volume relatively or or relative to the markets and the correlation to Bitcoin is, you know, slightly low, let's say below 0.7 0.6, then it's interesting. So, those altcoins I named are are interesting.
Um, if Bitcoin is actually able to get a breakout above 77,500, there's a whole list of other altcoins that are interesting. But for now, that's it. Those are my thoughts on the markets in terms of what to expect for Bitcoin. Like I said, there's still a brief possibility or a very small probability that we're still going to do this. I would say it's unlikely. I think it's more likely that Bitcoin is going to stay within this range that it is in, still get a move into the upside, find support there, and eventually get that move into the upside because or get that move into 79 80,000 because the general fundamentals around the crypto markets are still quite good. And in terms of altcoins, Atom, XPL, Worldscoin, AI in general, right? So, also Render, Bit Tensor, Fetch, those are my key focuses and that's what I think you need to know about the markets for now. So, uh, thank you for watching everybody. Take care and bye.
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