'LOOKING THROUGH THIS OIL CRISIS': Markets stay resilient

追加: 2026-04-29

[00:00:02]Time now for the word on Wall Street.

[00:00:04]Top investors watching your money.

[00:00:05]Joining me now, Payne Capital Management President Ryan Payne. Oh, also with me here on set, Luke Lloyd. Ryan, good morning. Let's start with you on all of this. Take a look at futures. We've actually got futures higher as you can see on your screen. Dow 17 points. So, we're watching this. We're really watching oil pulling up both Brent and WTI. We're seeing a boost here. The OPEC fund launching a $ 1.5 billion support package to help developing countries deal with economic pressures from the Iran conflict. The fund says the money is going to be deployed through 2028.

[00:00:38]The UAE, by the way, said to OPEC, uh, excuse me, exit OPEC on Friday after six decades, a major shakeup as supply disruptions are roing, of course, the energy markets. Now, President Trump met with oil and gas executives yesterday.

[00:00:53]This included Chevron CEO Mike Worth to discuss energy fallout of Iran. Uh, according this is according to Axios.

[00:01:01]Ryan, I want to get your reaction to all of that. I'm throwing a lot at you, but in particular, you know, we keep watching all the the headlines coming out of the blockade.

[00:01:10]>> Yes.

[00:01:10]>> But the UAE walking away from OPEC is a a victory, I would think, for the Trump administration.

[00:01:16]>> 100%. Because that means there can be more line with the US. if the US wants to control the price of oil if they want to increase increase production down the line um you know they don't really have to be at loggers uh head with what happen with OPEC plus so I think that is a big deal uh gives them less power gives us more control over the oil market and I think a lot of what's going on here the overarching strategy with the Trump administration is about the control flow of the flow of oil um and so I think that that is a big deal and also I mean I think what's interesting is everyone's saying it but like you look at the market not just the US market but global markets are really looking through this oil crisis right now. In fact, if you look at earnings estimates for companies outside the US, they're going up as well. So, it's not just the US. So, I think overall um you know what the market's telling you is even with this standstill right now in the straight from moves at some point here resolution is probably the most you know high odds of success. What I liked what the reason I brought that up is because the the journal's editorial board wrote this and I think this is important to bring up why the UAE broke up with OPEC and they say it's a foreign policy victory for American fossil fuel energy. Shell fracking in our country has achieved our longtime strategic goal of curbing OPEC and now the UA walking away. I think this is the broader shift that we're seeing happen right now. And I think that initially there was a little bit of a concern in the oil markets. is going to push prices higher and we're up today. But longterm, this makes again the US even less dependent on OPEC in the Middle East amid this conflict.

[00:02:48]>> Absolutely huge. And and when this conflict ends, the question is, does that actually mean oil prices even drop more? Because now if we want to ramp up production, we don't have to worry about OPEC plus, you know, putting some sort of like restraints on their members. if you have UAE, which is a big part of that, not being a part of what OP OPEC plus is doing is going to be huge for the US.

[00:03:07]>> UAE number two in production uh storage and capacity. So that's that's also another component. We'll see how the Saudis continue to react to this.

[00:03:15]There's a little bit of a backstep there. All right, Luke, let's talk about this. JP Morgan CEO Jamie Diamond is warning that risks are building across credit and global debt markets, saying a downturn could be worse than expected, especially in private credit. He cautioned a mix of soaring government debt, geopolitics, and high oil prices could trigger a broader bond market shock. Uh markets potentially underpricing the risk.

[00:03:40]>> He's not wrong. The risks are growing.

[00:03:42]But again, the same thing with what we're talking about whether AI spend with tech matters. I don't think the risk is there right now. It's going to be growing over the next year or two.

[00:03:51]Once unemployment ticks up a little bit, there might be a snowball effect of, you know, some defaults and that can trigger a lot of bad things. But we aren't there yet. We have to pay attention to that.

[00:03:58]Now, I want to go quickly back to what we're just talking about with OPEC. You know, when we got out of OPEC or UA UAE got out of OPEC, um the percentages was about 20% of oil production was uh 25% with was with OPEC. Uh 16% uh with United States. With UAE leaving, it's now 20% is 16%. So, it does make us more competitive and it it's been, you know, OPEC and United States competing with each other for a while. So with with us probably being able to produce more oil or at least the capitalistic and free market system allowing to work that should bring down oil prices which means interest rates should go lower. So when we talk about private credit and interest rates it's all depending on how long interest rates stay high. So if we see interest rates come down a lot over the next few years that that risk becomes lower. So, we go to the Fed the Fed decision, which is at 2 p.m. The uh Senate Banking is pushing the Kevin Worsh nomination out today. We we believe 10 a.m. Eastern time. So, there's a lot at play in that that makes >> that goes into that because Wor cares about unloading the balance sheet more than the interest caring about interest rates. So, when you unload the balance sheet, that means you have a little bit of economic not necessarily downturn, but you have a little softer economic market, which means lower interest rates. So, we again things we got to consider when it comes to private. Yes, I think the Treasury Secretary that relationship with Kevin Walsh is going to be a good thing and I think that the way that they are going to unwind the balance sheet is going to be positive uh to watch. Let's talk about earnings.

[00:05:19]Okay, we got a lot going on here. Big tech earnings kickoff today and here we go. Meta, Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, Qualcomm, all after the bell. Uh and investors are going to be closely watching for of course the guidance but AI spending and data center buildouts and whether these investments can actually turn into returns. And and Mark Malik, as you know, that comes on the program a lot, he wrote this. He said, "Look, the return on spending has to show up. Massive capeex with thin near-term revenue contribution creates a narrow margin for disappointment."

[00:05:51]That's the pressure on these companies tonight after the bell.

[00:05:54]>> It's totally right. And I think that's what we're going to be looking at right now is if you saw the first quarter, they add another 95 billion to capital expenditure for AI infrastructure. So the question is, are they going to continue to spend more and then what does that translate into earnings? And I this is actually kind of crazy. If you look at the Magnificent 7 and you take Nvidia out of it, well, earnings growth for the the rest of the Mag 6, I guess, would be 13%. That's not like magnificent earnings growth when you start looking at the fact that like you can get better earnings growth than the other S&P 493, I guess, you know, son's Nvidia. So, I think the question as an investor right now, you are paying a premium when it comes to valuation.

[00:06:31]Should I put my money elsewhere? And that's kind of what I've been preaching here is like, okay, yes, have some money in tech, but there's so many other places right now that you could put your money where multiples are lower um and earnings growth is going to be higher.

[00:06:42]So, I think you have to really start to question, why do I have so much money in the mag seven? And most people do, >> right? Well, and again, Luke, you brought this up earlier about the fact that there might be a rotation into small and midcap names because of this.

[00:06:53]And I wonder if we're going to see that well, even more so tomorrow.

[00:06:56]>> Quickly, we're very aggressively into software. We've been buying this whole IGV dip and allocating to specific names. So, uh we are aggressively positioned in in tech, not necessarily into it, all these kind of >> All right. Well, we'll have to continue this uh later. Uh Ryan Payne, thank you so much. Great to see you as always.

[00:07:12]Luke's going to stay with [music] us all morning.