Crypto Parabola Incoming? XRP Major 3? $10+ XRP?

Added: 2026-05-18

[00:00:01]Hey guys, how are we doing? Crypto Insight UK here bringing you back another YouTube video. Now look, today I'm going to get pretty bullish in this video. I'm going to talk about Bitcoin and I'm going to talk about XRP as well.

[00:00:10]I'm going to talk about crypto generally, but I'm going to just discuss a few news things first. Like I didn't make a video for the last few days. I've been traveling, but also like we're in this period here as I discussed on Monday in my YouTube video and the video that I post out over there on X that something big is potentially around the corner here. We're in this like decision point, decision period where we've got a few things culminating at the same time.

[00:00:36]One is the Cryptoclarity Act being marked up through the Senate. The second one is Kevin Walsh and he is sworn in now as Fed chair, I'm pretty sure. or like he's been approved as Fed chair, he might not be sworn in, but he's been approved as Fed chair. Then the third and in my opinion most important thing maybe in modern history and definitely modern financial history at least of the last few years if not the last 20 or 30 so um because of the rise and falls of great powers potentially is the meeting with Xiing and uh Trump in China right now. So, it's been very difficult to make short-term uh content anyway about apart um about anything apart from these three topics uh because they're just so contentious and so um so large for the industry generally and also potentially the world. But the foundations are there that with warin we're seeing like Lumis came out yesterday, Senator Lumis saying like we've now got a Fed who's ready to embrace digital assets, protect consumers, etc. which I think is a big statement uh for crypto generally because it's not just highlighting cryp crypto as a speculative investment. It's highlighting as a utility and then go back to my video on Monday to discuss a bit more about what I think could happen. So we've also then got the um clarity act which obviously Elizabeth Warren wanted 40 amendments um even though they've already gone through it um because she's in no way political joke. Um, but what I'm saying is the Clarity Act is on the edge and whether that gets uh pushed through or not uh goes to the house, I don't know. Um, I think it's likely that it does. Um but then whether that even leads to positive price action or not I actually believe um even if it is to sell the news a sell the news event which often things are in crypto even if it is a sell the news event in like the low time frame or the short short term that um at the back of that I think there will be uh speculative positive price action because of the utility that is potentially going to bring in they're going to bring trillions of dollars on chain and whether that uh whether that means the price goes up straight away or not even um the speculative uh thought process of how much that could that could affect prices over time. Maybe that's in in a few years where we get the full utility where maybe there's 3 to 5 trillion by the end of Trump's term which is like a couple of years. Um I think that if you get the 3 to 5 trillion on chain a lot of if buts and maybe is what I'm trying to say it's why it's difficult. If you get the 3 to 5 trillion on chain we're going to see significant increase in asset prices. I know that the market cap of crypto at the minute is like between two and three trillion and everyone's uh going to think oh well 3 to 5 would probably just double us. I don't think it would. If we brought three to five trillion of fresh capital on chain because of how supply and deam demand dynamics work with market cap I think we'd see uh probably more towards like a three to 5x maybe even higher 5 to 10x with just 2 to3 trillion extra okay so that's I think very important something I wanted to discuss with you guys and I probably could have find a metric for that but I haven't actually looked but maybe I'll uh no we'll do that another time so the first thing today uh President Trump and G have had a meeting This is actually 5 minutes ago, so we're just getting this like right right now.

[00:03:35]Basically saying it was a good meeting.

[00:03:37]Uh G of China, the two uh sides discussed ways to enhance economic cooperation between the two countries, including expanding market access for American businesses into China and increasing Chinese investment into our industries. This is one of the things I think China are trying to do. They're trying to move a little bit away from the production side and be more of a consumer a little bit like the US are with China or the like the opposite of what the US are with China. I think it shows that they're the nation is is developing into like more of this like powerhouse. They're not like specifically or they still are, but they're still not on that come up in the same way. They're trying to be more of like an investor and like a t have more influence on the world and invest more um rather than just produce.

[00:04:18]Leaders from many and the US are trying to do the opposite. they're trying to produce a little bit more. So I think it makes sense for this. Um leaders from many United States largest companies during a portion of the meeting this and I think this is one of the reasons why the the US equity market continue much much higher. I think that there's going to be a deal around currency somewhere.

[00:04:34]I don't know if that'll be announced. I don't think it would be announced but I think back door that backroom meetings about um Chinese yuan printing and maybe US um and also where some of that yuan might go. and they going to stimulate Chinese economy but also I think invest into US companies and wouldn't it be convenient if all the CEOs were over there in China but I'm going to this is really important it's going to lead onto my discussion on crypto because I'm going to make some quite speculative predictions in a minute um the president also highlighted the need um to to progress on ending the flow of fentinel um as well as increasing Chinese purchases of agricultural products that would supply the US food chain obviously uh two sides agreed that the street Hm must remain open and free flow of energy. So it looks like um Xi and and and China might help Trump with his campaign in the Middle East. Uh it's for their own interest as well, but at least they're going to be cooperating on that potentially. Xi also made it clear that Chinese opposition to the military the militarization of the straight of Hammoo and Taj to for any use. He expressed interest in purchasing more American oil. This is an interesting one. This is what I said to you before um uh before this this meeting even started. They want the US oil. Um, and they they've shown interest to purchase more American oil and reduce China's dependency on the straight in the future. I told you this is what it was going to be about for the US. And both countries have agreed their ranking of a nuclear weapon. So that's my the first step towards what I think is quite successful. Obviously every anything can change like when you've got these two massive giant powerhouses in the same room. This is why again I'm not like put putting too many eggs in this basket but it seems to be progressing in the direction that I thought it would because even yesterday both Trump and Xi were saying look we need this meeting to be positive for both of us. Um and I and I agree. I think like there's a world where it's positive for both of them.

[00:06:21]They take a much higher like stake of the world generally. Um but do it together and they both win more than they would if they were competing. And that doesn't mean they won't doesn't mean they're not competing but I mean butting head and it doesn't mean they won't butt heads in the future, right?

[00:06:36]So, now we're going to get into something speculative. This is the daily time frame on Bitcoin. Going to just show you what I wrote in the newsletter this week. So, look, I think it's 45% likely that Bitcoin squeezes through this range. I think it's 35% likely that Bitcoin falls down to about the anywhere between the 76 and 72K range and then starts to bounce higher from there. And I think it's 10% likely that we come back down to the lows of the range because there is liquidity down there.

[00:06:58]But I do think that um that that it's not it's not as likely and and I mean that from a narrative perspective in my more macro view because I think this this meeting in China is pretty big. I think the clarity act thing is pretty big and there is as I said that that chance we could come down to that liquidity but we're right up at the highs. We're at the area where I thought it was going to be a bit of like contesting here uh contention and people are really doubling down on bare thesis but also then you've got people coming through with the bull thesis. And this is where I'm going to get excited.

[00:07:29]Okay, if we squeeze and start to get closes above this like white box here, I'm going to show you now. Bitcoin. If we start to get closes above this area here between this 94, 84 to 94. If we can start closing above here in the short term, I think uh Bitcoin is going to be at 200. We'll have seen 200,000 by the end of the year. Um and that thing that means that things like XRP are going to do a significant u multiple from here if that happens. Excuse me. I don't want my got a frog in my throat this morning. But that's what I think is coming.

[00:08:02]So why do I say it could come back down towards the 76 to 72K? Well, this range breakout um there's a lot of liquidity potentially building up here and we could come down and retest that if we haven't quite got the strength. And like look on the on the low time frames like the daily for example, we're right near the top of the um RSI almost overbought.

[00:08:19]Not quite overbought, but like on the 4 hour we got to that um overbought area.

[00:08:24]So like there's there's there's space for a pullback, but even now like the 4hour yesterday pulled back um quite heavily look on the RSI and price is still sitting up near these highs. Um and you've got a lot of people out there still really calling for like sell sell here and obviously throughout this whole move we looked we've looked at funding and in fact I think I've just closed that the weekly insight. Let me just open that again. Like even there we we were discussing funding at the weekend which is also then what Arthur Hayes discussed as well. Um, so this is when funding's been negative and essentially the last time we had this cluster of negative funding was right at the lows in the 2022 bare market. Um, was it 2021? I don't know. Uh, 2122 bare market. And we've got the same cluster now. And the other thing is we've actually risen off the lows about 32% to where we are right now. And we still um had pretty much negative funding until like a couple of days ago. Now, this is something else that's super interesting just in searches for Bitcoin at the lowest levels in the past 12 months.

[00:09:27]That was from Koshi yesterday. So, I said price is up 30% off the lows. Who's buying because no one's searching for Bitcoin in the retail space? So, it's pretty much in my opinion institutions, companies, etc. So, that makes it even more exciting for me because we've still got all this uncertainty. We've got negative funding and and retail's not buying and we're up 30% off the lows. So basically myself and Arthur Hayes um came to the same conclusion that if we can start to basically close above he thinks 90K I think between 84 and and 94 like this this box here people are going to have to start covering their short positions um and that is going to make us basically squeeze higher because then shorts are going to get squeezed I think um and or at least there's going to be buy pressure coming in from covering but I think they're going to short um shorts are going to be squeezed generally and then we're going to start pushing higher and probably quite aggressively because then you can then bring the argument back to whether um the S&P we're going to catch back up with the S&P which continues to set new alltime highs and I think that is something we will do and we can do. Um so I think that we've got exciting times around the corner if we can get through this area. Like as I said, it's not 100% chance. I put 45% chance on it. But both occasion both 45 and 35% chances that I've allocated to um these Oh, maybe it's a bit more.

[00:10:47]Maybe I did my math wrong. Maybe it should be 55 and 35 that makes 100. Um yeah, my bad cuz then the 10% chance that we come down. But anyway, I think it's probably the most likely outcome for me that it's hard to say because like I get ruined if I if I'm wrong because it's quite and it's also quite a speculative thing to say, but I really think that like we're mispricing this opportunity in in the space. Um I think the structure with the funding could lead us higher. I think there's so many doubters out there right now that say we can't go any higher than this.

[00:11:19]And I think that the ex the price action if we get this move is going to be super super aggressive. It might be something like this. Um, and then we just absolutely rip it. And then that like I did give that 180K by July target. It might be a little bit early, but with the 4th of July in the US, obviously being in July, um, 250th anniversary of the US, the US World Cup after the back of this meeting with Xi and Trump's trying to say he's going to get the Clarity Act through by the 4th of July and we've got a new Fed chair. I think there's going to be a lot of positive um, like headlines coming out. Whether that leads to a positive price action or not, I don't know. But then the technicals definitely can squeeze the price and then be reflexive with these positive headlines. So I said I talk to you about XRP as well and we'll just finish this YouTube video with that today. So if I'm right with that thought process that we've just discussed there, if we can squeeze there for Bitcoin, I think there's a solid solid argument that XRP is about to start what I would consider um a a macro wave three or a larger wave three. Um, now look, I'm not I'm not always um I'm not an Elliot wave theory expert, but I think this is the sort of thing you're looking for. Um, I think there's two chances. Like I said to you guys, look, I I also explained that that I think that there could be this could also have done like this. This could also be the three, four, and then five.

[00:12:43]So five I think goes to eight between 8 and 12. And I think there's there is a a count for that. And I'm not 100% on whether that is going to be the case or not. Um, so that's why I'm deleveraging heavily between 8 and 12 because I don't want to take the risk that we go significantly higher and it's and it's it's going to be a lot of capital there for me. So it was going to be a life-changing amount of money really. So that's the reason I'll be deleveraging heavily. I won't sell it all. But I do think this is a source structure we're looking for. That would take us up to between I I think um if we are in a third wave three, it's probably going to go above $10. Um, and then the correction, how how deep that comes, I don't know. Like would we corrected say off the highs here? Um, what 60 70%. Would the correction be 60 or 70% from there maybe? And that could take us down to say $45. Um, but I think we're going to go significantly higher if we can get this break here for Bitcoin. So, I'm super like trying not to say too much because we've not got anything confirmed, but when you start to like look at the the indicators um when we I've been showing you the MACD on the weekly and the RSI on the weekly for XRP and as I said like I think Bitcoin goes 180 200K and XRP is going to be blasting through double digits and we've got the Clarity Act coming and there's all sorts of like exciting things happening all at one time in the crypto space but we've not yet as I said got this confirmation. So, trying not to get too too excited. If you see the weekly RSI, just banging against resistance right now for XRP, it's decision time pretty much here. And that's why I'm trying not to say too much um and really get everyone too excited. But even on the on the monthly time frame, look, the RSI, if you look at the bottom of your screen, if we look at the RSI and we're at the level that we've bottomed in every single bare market. If you look at the MACD, yes, we are bearish. We have bearish cross still, but the volume is starting to give its first signal that a directional change could be coming. So, that's where I think we are. I I will get more into that if we can start to see some confirmations. But, I don't want you guys to be surprised if I start to say, "Oh, look, I think we could go significantly higher here um with XRP if Bitcoin just starts to get closes above this range." This is the important range. I think that everyone should be watching this. And I know that people are going to say, "Oh, but look, if you look at the stocastic RSI on Bitcoin, like it's starting to uh get into the overbought area." Yes, it is. Um we did it there and we continued higher. It doesn't mean like it's game over when Bitcoin gets to that area. Like look here um in this period here when it got to the overbought, we still actually then continued higher. like people are getting too caught up on what they think what like on their stochastic RSI because you can always pick things that that disagree with your thesis, but the majority of of indicators that I'm looking at say we could be going higher.

[00:15:29]And then when you really take into consideration the relationship with the with the S&P that crypto has had or not just the S&P, you can look at anything, the NASDAQ, uh even the Russell's doing very well. people always uh relate to the Russell. Everything is like pointing towards things are going to get much higher. Even copper, people are making a lot of charts uh comparing crypto to copper. Copper's at new alltime highs. Like it's it's time and crypto's lagging and whether that means something's broken, I don't know. In terms of like correlation and deviation from the trend. Uh but the other thing and this is why it's difficult and I think this is why also it will make such a squeeze in price is because if we do break out here it basically eradicates the thesis of a 4-year cycle and a lot of people who have been like fouryear cycle theorists are going to have to jump back into the market. As I've discussed some people have been buying and and Bitcoin searches are at alltime lows. Like there's a lot of things bubbling under the surface here which I think can lead to what I what I believe will be a squeeze in price. that squeeze in price will be extremely exciting for Bitcoin and I think probably more exciting for alts. I even think that ETH actually looks pretty good here. I was looking at it um yesterday I think. But don't don't fade what I think is coming here. Like be open to my discussion. I think we can go significantly higher here for crypto. It's just what happens in these next few days. Why the Trump China meeting is so important. It's why the clarity act um discussion is so important and why the introduction of wash to the Fed is so important. So, that's where I am. I hope you enjoyed the video. If you want to trade in any leverage, I got a link to uh MEX and WEX in the description of this video. If you want to check out my weekly newsletter, the weekly insight.substack.com is also in the description of this video. I literally front run what Arthur Hayes was going to say this week. Um, finally, nothing I say is financial advice, but I do hope you enjoyed. Peace up. a town down as crypto inside UK could say could say would