A bear trap is a deceptive market pattern where price appears to break support levels, triggering stop-loss orders and creating a false bearish signal, but then reverses sharply upward, trapping traders who shorted based on the apparent breakdown; this pattern often occurs when negative sentiment is artificially manufactured to liquidate long positions before a major price reversal.
Deep Dive
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Deep Dive
WARNING: Massive Bitcoin Bear Trap Playing Out NOW!Added:
Guys, you will not expect where Bitcoin is most likely heading next. I will show you which direction I believe over the weekend we are going to do and the initial move will happen in just a couple hours from now. You don't want to miss out on that, so let's go.
Welcome back. We start off with the DXY as usual. Here you can see we are getting more rejected exactly as I mentioned yesterday that I was expecting this from the 99.3 point level.
And most likely also going to close today here with a rejection candle which should by definition lead to more downside over the course of next week and therefore put more pressure on Bitcoin to go back into higher levels. But in the meantime, unfortunately, Bitcoin could head here over the weekend a little bit lower.
>> [clears throat] >> Which in my opinion is just another fake out that we are going to see here and a massive massive bear trap. Here you can see where I retesting right now the 72,972 dollar level, which was previously holding as support and from where we bounced off here. When was that? Just yesterday back here to roughly 74,000 dollars. Now it gets retested again, most likely going to break and we will head a little bit lower and this is in my opinion the fake move that is happening for Friday and we're going to see the real move then on Monday. Why do I believe that? Because we are retesting here on the weekly chart right now a critical support level.
I'm just going to draw that here. You can see over here, if I draw a line like this and even draw this here all the way over there.
That was the pivot level from where we got here this massive run to the upside to 126,000 dollars.
We got from there the bounce and went here 50, no, even more, uh 70% to the upside.
Now, this level is getting retested after we had initially lost it here.
There rejected. Here we broke it. Now it gets retested. This is a really, really, really important key level that we are seeing here right now on a weekly scale being tested. I don't believe that we are closing a weekly candle below that.
And even if we would here a week below that slightly, the next week will straight pump back to the upside.
When we're looking then here on the daily chart, we are within my buy territory area here of one of them. As you can see, uh we I gave you yesterday here that trade setup based on the death cross if we would have lower that here in the green area I would start buying and I actually did.
I'm going to show it to you here in a minute. But here that the 50 moving average is heading now downwards, it's really bad for us because it puts more pressure to the downside on Bitcoin in the short term.
And the 50 will act as resistance if price will attempt to go back to the upside. And that would be currently at $75,500.
Once we're closing this daily candle, it will be more to around $75,200, $75,000, somewhere around there.
On the bear flag situation, so here we have lost the support level that we were holding until yesterday. So I'm going to mark this here now in red.
And are approaching the next underlying support level.
And this is the support level that I really, really hope for Bitcoin is going to hold.
And we're going to see from there the bounce back to the upside. Cuz this is you're all the way down to $71,000 on the lower end.
And what I expected to see is that we are waking down there over the weekend.
Let me show it to you.
Here, a week down.
Then come up and consolidate here around that area and then by come Monday going to see a move back to the upside and closing also a CME gap that we most likely going to form around the current levels or even a little bit lower. So there is then an upwards direction put up or labeled on Bitcoin to move here back to the upside and close that CME gap that I'm looking out for to be formed here over the weekend.
If you want to trade with me together, guys, in this specific setup, then you know the drill what to do. Just go here under my video, sign up on Weeks or on Bybit, and then you can join my free signals channel and click on this link.
And yeah, just follow the steps of the bot. I going to show it to you how it looks like inside the channel. So this is just from 2 days ago. Um when I actually took profit and cleared $500,000 on a $50,000 account that I started 2 months ago. And if you get for some reason here that verification error message, not the end of the world, choose one of these other exchanges that you've not signed up with. Click there on the button, sign up, rinse and repeat the whole process, and then you will get access to the bot. And also you should not forget that we are starting Monday the $500 to $10,000 challenge here on Alpha X. And also for that our links here under the video.
So just go down here. Uh sorry, let me go back. Go here.
Um Oh, wow. Is it uh here? Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah, Alpha X. Sign up there, deposit $500, then here also join the Telegram bot specifically for Alpha X and our competition. Three that easy.
So how does my Weeks trade do right now?
The new one, it was up at some point today $12,000. Now I'm again slightly under water. You know me already by this time. I don't really care. You know, let it go lower. I only use like um 16% of my total capital that I have. I'm still roughly sitting here around $500,000 in this account.
>> [laughter] >> If I need to dollar cost average to the downside, so be it. I just going to dollar cost average lower and then turn this again into a profitable position because as you can see here, if I'm going back to my order history or let's see here. There.
Everything in green, you know, so nothing to really worry about.
I um I only pay a funding fees, you know, so but in the end, when it comes out in the wash here, the last position made $62,100 roughly. And that was um opened on the 15th and closed on the 26th.
So I I don't care if I have to wait 11 days to turn a profit on this, you know, so let it be another 11, 12 days, you know, while I dollar cost average into this.
I don't really could care less about this, you know, as long as I make money here. So but this whole structure that we are seeing here looks super bearish to me. Oh, sorry. Um So this here looks really bearish for a little bit more downside before we can move back into higher levels.
But here on the liquidation heat map, you see also that we're not potentially going that much lower because here the biggest concentration that we're seeing here right now is at $72,400 roughly for long positions, but once we're tapping into this, I believe we could come down here to like 70 What is this? $71,800 roughly.
There the force move is going to stop and then we range between 70 to 73,000 over the weekend and then next week we have built up so much short liquidity up here that there will be no other choice by the market than push it back to the upside. Remember, the market can stay for a long time irrational until it cannot do this anymore and then time will catch up to it.
>> [clears throat] >> Here on the 12-hourly chart, you see now a broadening falling wedge forming. Here the bottom of that is also sitting exactly around that level where the long liquidations are sitting at $72,325.
Here also the underlying support level is roughly $70,800.
The wick could go as low as $71,000 in my opinion, but I don't think that we're going to step here into that green box here because the stochastic area on the 12-hourly chart is already turning around, potentially putting in putting in a buy signal with the next 12-hourly candle close, which will coincide with the daily close. And the RSI is also here pretty low already, currently in bearish territory at around 30%. When we're getting here to like 30 26 on the RSI, there usually we get a small bounce back to the upside. The MACD is currently bearish, not going to hide this.
But I believe we have here maybe another yeah, 20 hours 32 hours window where price can move lower, as low as it goes, and then it will bounce and go back to the upside. I'm not really worried about that. You know guys, as long as you follow here my trades the same way that I'm trading them, we always end up with massive profits in the end.
And that's it already for today's episode guys. Let me know in the comments if I should do tomorrow a live stream. I would like to know what what you want, a video or a live stream. Let me know or potentially even on Sunday.
Other than that, smash up the like button, hit the subscribe button, hit the notification bell, and I'll see you again tomorrow.
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