INFLATION OUT OF CONTROL | Recession is HERE

Added: 2026-05-13

[00:00:00]Within one year, you're going to have electric bills and energy bills and your gasoline for your car is going to be 50 50% cheaper than it is right now.

[00:00:10]>> President, to what extent are Europeans motivating you to make it feel?

[00:00:16]>> Not even a little bit. It listen inflation has exploded at the same time that every alarm bell in the US economy is ringing. The yield curve, the scion rule, the leading economic index, consumer sentiment is at the lowest it's been in 70 years. Real wages, you guys, is falling. It's falling, not going up.

[00:00:38]Auto loans are at crisis level. And the government deficit is $2 trillion.

[00:00:43]There's no war. There's no crash. No crisis on the books. Strip inflation and the headlines away. And the recession isn't coming, you guys. The recession is already here. And having said that, welcome back to Real Estate Mindset.

[00:00:55]Today's report is going to be on the recession America is already in. And before we go into this report, I first want to listen to a video of President Donald Trump talking about inflation.

[00:01:05]And as soon as this war is over, which will not be long, you're going to see oil prices drop and you're going to see a stock market, which is already at the highest points in history, go through the roof. You're going to see to go with the N of America freshness and you're seeing it now. So as soon don't forget you have hundreds of ships that are loaded up with oil that want to come out. As soon as they come out we're going to have a sky of oil and you're going to have inflation that goes way down. Now with all of this inflation is much lower than it was under Biden.

[00:01:40]Biden had the highest inflation in the history of our countries. Inflation is nothing like the third but our inflation is the short term that is built from before the war we want in the last three months 1.7 chest and now what you have to consume is this war if you're going to see inflation go down to probably one and a half% >> jumping into today's report the recession America is already in if you guys want a copy of the full report don't forget to subscribe to Substack you would really help out the channel by doing so and you would get this great report as a result. Now, here's the scorecard. These are essentially 12 different recessionary indicators of which 10 of them are already triggered.

[00:02:25]So, did the best we can to kind of point that out here, make it red, green, and yellow. So, the first one is obviously the yield curve, the 10 and the two.

[00:02:32]Now, it recently uninverted after the longest inversion in history. So, it's fair to say if we don't go into recession, then that recessionary indicator is completely useless. Also the scion rule which has to do with unemployment that was triggered in July of 2024 at 0.53%. So the growth rate of unemployment which is now at 2% and rising again. So it's saying that's triggered. Confidence board LEI that has been declining for nearly three straight years. Then we have the CCI expectations index. This is below recessionary threshold of 80 for 15 straight months.

[00:03:10]You guys, the Michigan sentiment, which is consumer sentiment, is at 48.2. That is an all-time record low. Real wages turn negative. Negative, you guys. 3% year-over-year. That's the first time that's happened since 2023. Auto loan delinquencies are at 5.2%. That nearly matches the 2010 GFC peak of 5.3%. The peak, guys, during the worst of the recession. So, we're right there right now. But our officials have not confirmed the recession. Building permits, guys, that's down 10.8% month over month in March. ISM manufacturing employment contracting for 31 straight months. ISM services for new orders that plunged 7.1 points in a single month. There's a warning right now. Headline unemployment says 4.3%. I put stable but masking weaknesses and a warning right there. But the fact of the matter is is half of the recessions that we've had over the last 100 years have started with unemployment at or under 4.3%. The last one is initial jobless claims. I guess that's, you know, I guess that's not triggered yet because we're near 1969 lows, but again, underneath the hood, things are much worse. So, let's start with the lead.

[00:04:26]Look beneath the headlines. By the standard scoreboard, the US economy is an expansion. Gross domestic product grew by 2.0% in the first quarter.

[00:04:35]Unemployment is 4.3%. Manufacturing and services are both growing. The stock market sits near record highs. Now look beneath the surface. Consumer sentiment again hit the lowest reading in the 70-year history of the survey. Real wages, as we pointed out, turn negative for the first time in three years. The Confidence Board's recession signal indicator has been firing for 15 straight months. Auto loan delinquencies again near great financial crisis level.

[00:05:03]And as of this morning, as of this morning, inflation jumped back up to nearly 4% sitting at 3.8%. That is the highest since May of 2023, which was roughly one year after quantitative tightening. Now, I want you guys to really pay attention to this 45% because the share of Q1 2026 GDP growth that came directly from government spending.

[00:05:29]So, do you guys starting to understand why we're in such a massive deficit?

[00:05:33]When we strip that out, the picture changes significantly. And I'll show you now. Here's a chart that we made for headline CPI and core CPI. Now, obviously, you guys can see here that this did jump to 3.8%. That is the highest reading since May of 2023. And as far as what did the damage, the government did the damage, but specifically energy did the damage.

[00:05:55]Gasoline rose 28.4% over the past year. Fuel oil is up 54.3%.

[00:06:02]Obviously, this is from the nonwar with Iran. Here's the thing that probably hurts the most. Paychecks lose the race, which means inflation is now outpacing your wages. We're not even talking about if you have money in the bank. If you have money in the bank, that's also deteriorating and so is your purchasing power. But for the first time since April of 2023, we're negative again. And just think about this, guys. How can we be negative with so much money printing with so many promises that our lives are going to improve? How are we negative again? Think about the tragedy that is our government. Now, before going to Mitch, I want to remind you guys to please stay for the end of this video where we talk about the advocacy. We have some extremely important updates for you guys. I'm going to show you guys what I did today. I'm going to try to do overwhelming amounts of advocacy each and every day and I'm going to share that with you. Plus, Mitch has a brand new article. But before we go into those things, Mitch, can you articulate what we just went over? Sir, >> the CPI excludes items such as life insurance, investment securities, financing costs, and housing prices. Those are considered investments which they are not but that's what the CPI has done.

[00:07:12]Additionally, it doesn't include income or property taxes or the portion of health care costs that are paid by insurance plans for government programs which in essence are paid for by the taxpayer. CPI doesn't measure the true inflation. It's the first thing. Second thing is inflation destroys purchasing power. Third issue is who creates inflation? Well, the two largest purveyors of fraud on the planet are the Federal Reserve and the school districts. That's your source of inflation.

[00:07:45]So, somebody saying, well, inflation is going to go down in this quarter or go down in that quarter, they could be right, but they could also be wrong. And the reason why more than likely they're going to be wrong is because it doesn't address the pink elephant dancing in the room, which is the cause, the causation of the inflation, which is the Federal Reserve, and the school districts. the Federal Reserve printing money, which is called counterfeiting when it's not backed by an asset. And the school districts, which are using you, mom and pop, as their printing press, and transferring the liabilities of their fraudulent principle onto the back of all citizens, the two largest purveyors on the planet of fraud, the Federal Reserve and the school districts.

[00:08:32]towards the end of this video, we're going to get into a little bit more of the real election fraud issue associated with what they're doing. Now, jumping back into the report, and we're only going to go over nine pages of the 13 pages, so if you guys access the full report, you're going to get more information, but let's start with a bond market's warning. Obviously, that's the Treasury yield curve. The yield curve has just recently reverted back to normal after the longest reversion in history. Now, here's what's important to know. The Treasury yield curve, specifically the spread between the 10-year and the two-year notes, has preceded every US recession since the 1960s. Bond investors price in expected future Fed rate cuts, pushing long yields below short yields and the curve inverts. It is the single most reliable recession predictor in financial markets. So right now, this is saying that we are in danger. Okay, so a recession any minute now, right? any minute for a recession. That's what the bond market is saying. Part three, household stress in plain sight. So, I'm going to read a couple things, guys.

[00:09:35]We're going to look at delinquencies as well for auto, but housing has rolled over. Building permits in March 2026 fell 10.8% month overmonth. And don't forget, you guys, the prices of new homes is also plummeting, not existing homes. It's really important to understand the differences in those two things and the differences in those niches. So massive turmoil on the surface with new homes, not as much and in different ways for existing. However, we're 7.4% below March of 2025. So year-over-year. Housing completions were also down 12.8% year-over-year. New home sales fell 7% both month over month and year-over-year. Existing home sales remain near historic lows. And I saw an article this morning from Housing Wire.

[00:10:22]Oh my gosh, the shields over there. and they charge you $80 a month and they're like, "Oh, buying demand is still there and inventory is almost down year over year." And I'm just again I I go to their price. I'm like, "Wow, people pay you guys $80 to lie. That's pretty crazy to me." That's just my opinion, of course. Now, mortgage rates near 6.4% have priced out a generation of first-time buyers as well as anyone else. But I'm going to add the more important thing is the price because what does the price impact? Everything.

[00:10:51]Homeowners insurance, property taxes, HOA, maintenance, everything. Housing is historically one of the most reliable early warning sectors of the economy. It typically peaks well before a recession begins. By that standard, the US housing market has been in recession for nearly two years. Now, look at this chart right here, guys. A quiet crisis in America's garages. Look at the delinquency rate.

[00:11:15]Okay, this is the serious delinquency rate. So, 90 days plus. This is 90 days plus delinquent. And here's the peak during the global financial crisis. Look at right out of the recession. See this trajectory? Boom. Right out of the recession and then it starts to plummet down. But right now, look it, what are they doing to us? The inflation is preventing us from healing and resetting. This is an absolute tragedy, guys. And when we look at part four, the hidden stimulus. So, they've been doing quantitative easing in some form or another this entire time. The Congressional Budget Office projects a $ 1.9 trillion dollar deficit now for the fiscal year of 2026. That's about 5.8% GDP. Look at this chart right here.

[00:11:54]Prior to 2019, look at this. Okay, the 50-year average was 3.8%. We're near double that. Not double that. I didn't say double that, but we're near double that. And it's not getting any better.

[00:12:05]We are going to have a worse deficit in 2026 than we did in 2025. And I thought we weren't. What happened to the tariff income? Now, here's a shocker. Okay, so we're going to say who's actually growing the economy. Now, we have to take out of this equation net exports because net exports is reducing the GDP by 1.46%.

[00:12:25]So, we have essentially four different things that's propping up the economy.

[00:12:28]Obviously, consumers and consumers are taking an absolute beating. Our savings, our credit cards, we're people are using buy now pay later to purchase groceries.

[00:12:36]Not everything is okay in the economy for everyone. It's obviously a K-shaped economy, but consumer spending is 1.8%.

[00:12:42]Business investment 1.48%. Is that like data centers? It's like data centers like the top thing. Now federal government 73% which equates to 45% of the GDP growth. So it's only looking at the growth came from the government sector. Here's state and local at.17.

[00:12:58]Now here's the counter factual. What G1 GDP growth looks like if you strip out the extraordinary fiscal flaws. We're at about 0.2% in the negative. Now, I wanted to point out that the biggest battle that the government is losing is not just the trust of the American citizens, but the biggest battle at risk right now is the labor market. And the AI layoffs have barely even started trickling down the pipeline. As someone that has been investigating AI and the capability, you guys, I'm telling you right now, the labor market is cooked. The labor market is cooked. What's going to happen within the next few years, in the next few months, is going to be absolutely devastating. So you got to hedge correctly. Now before going to Mitch, let's listen to what mainstream media is saying about inflation. And this is Fox News, so they should support everything the current administration is saying.

[00:13:52]Right now, the expectation is not really for inflation to get much better throughout most of 2026. That's the story that you're seeing in these reports. Essentially, there's going to be some tariff inflation passing through on the good side. Now you have energy prices impacting services. It probably just isn't going to get that much better from here. And I think investors know that. They're focused on the AI story and hoping this inflation story doesn't get too much worse.

[00:14:16]>> Mitch, can you tell us whether or not you think the new Federal Reserve chairman has any hope whatsoever at stopping the inflation? Are they going to cook us no matter what?

[00:14:27]>> The Fed is in a box that it can't get out of. And it's in a box that it built.

[00:14:33]So lower interest rates does not solve inflation. You need higher interest rates in order to bring inflation down.

[00:14:41]The government rightfully so wants lower interest rates because that will help generate more economic issues.

[00:14:50]The problem again is that your purchasing power has been destroyed by no coincidence. In 1913 with the creation of the Federal Reserve, the US dollar at that time was worth 1017 as compared to where it is at this moment roughly around 30. That is the destruction of your purchasing power of the US dollar as a direct result of inflation. Who created the inflation?

[00:15:21]The Federal Reserve. Right back to the same issue we started with. So until the causation, be it the fraud, is dealt with, doesn't matter what the Fed does because they're not going to solve the problem that they created. That's a constant theme of everything that's being done these days with regard to the election fraud, school district bond fraud, and the property tax fraud. The fraudsters have no incentive to fix the mess that they created because they're stealing money. And until this is addressed, this problem will continue to fester until one day we all wake up and the system blows to shreds. And as I've said, the tail, which is the school district bond debt, will end up wagging the dog, which is the US Treasuries.

[00:16:11]Okay. So Mitch, before we listen to Milton Freedman, because you know we're going to listen to him, we're talking about inflation, right? And he's going to talk about capitalism. Anything you want to say before we listen to this next clip about this man and why he's so important for people to pay attention to?

[00:16:26]>> It's not just Milton Friedman, but it's Thomas Payne. These issues that we face in today's society were known 260 years ago. And in truth, I even have a quote in the Second Amendment to the criminal complaint that I found early this morning that was written in 500 BC by a Roman talking about very similar problems. what we're facing are just simply criminals. As as I've said, it's the criminals versus society.

[00:16:53]And Milton Freriedman throughout all of his quotes has been staunch as an anti- socialist person, antisocialism.

[00:17:02]He's been staunch on capitalism. He understood what needed to be done, as did Thomas Payne. These things are known. The problem is fosters don't care. These criminals don't read.

[00:17:14]They're there simply to steal money. And what the Supreme Court of Texas has done is in fact to backs stop criminals. More on that in a few minutes. But it comes down to the same thing. Inflation is made in Washington because only Washington can create money.

[00:17:32]And any other attribution of to other groups of inflation is wrong.

[00:17:39]Consumers don't produce it.

[00:17:42]Producers don't produce it.

[00:17:46]The trade unions don't produce it.

[00:17:48]Foreign chics don't produce it. Oil imports don't produce it. What produces it? It's too much government spending and too much government creation of money and nothing else.

[00:17:59]>> And just a little history lesson on capitalism before moving on to advocacy.

[00:18:04]I say the essence of a capitalist system in its pure form is that it is a system of cooperation without compulsion of voluntary exchange of free enterprise.

[00:18:15]Now I hasten to add no actual system conforms to that notion. In the actual world you're always dealing with approximations with more or less.

[00:18:26]In the actual world you always have impediments and interferences to voluntary exchange.

[00:18:33]But the essential character of a capitalist system is that it relies on voluntary exchange on your agreeing with me that you will buy something from me if I will pay you a certain amount for it. The essential notion is that both parties to the exchange must benefit.

[00:18:51]This was a great vision of Adam Smith in his wealth of nations that individuals each separately pursuing their own self-interest could promote the social interest because you could get exchange between people on the basis of mutual benefit.

[00:19:08]Now, let's listen to our current leaders talk about what we need to be doing. And I'm going to tell you guys right now, I apologize for playing this to you, but I need you guys to understand how important you are in your education is and how important advocacy is. Listen to this man speak.

[00:19:24]>> I think Republicans face a new time of choosing. whether we're going to stay on the path of the traditional conservative principles that have always defined our party for the last half century or whether we're going to follow the siren song of populism unorded to conservative principles. Um, and there are loud voices in and out of government, some of which have uh been able to influence the new Trump administration um uh in in ways that are taking our party and our movement uh far a field uh from those traditional conservative underpinnings and um you know where we've always been the party of a strong defense and we see America as leader of the free world, the arsenal of democracy, their rising course of isolationist voices in the Republican party. I write about that in my book where uh where we've always been a party committed to low taxes, including um low tariffs and free trade.

[00:20:26]U and you guys, I hope you pick that up.

[00:20:28]He's out there selling his book, the ex vice president of the United States.

[00:20:34]These are our leaders. And speaking of being a leader, I want to challenge you guys to be a leader of your community.

[00:20:41]And I wanted to let you guys know what I have done so far this morning. There's the time stamps above my head on the right. We've been going after the city of Miami Beach. That's actually their confirmations. But on top of Miami, I've been sending a ton of open records requests to Martin County of Florida.

[00:20:57]I'm trying to attack every single city in Florida that has an unconstitutional ban on landbased shark fishing. Okay?

[00:21:03]It's my hobby. I love doing landbased shark fishing. It's catch and release.

[00:21:06]We tag and release and all that type of stuff. But I wanted you guys to know that I am fighting like a madman. I can't even balance my life anymore because I've learned what Mitch has taught me and we are taking back our local governments. And don't forget, you can go to my homepage. On the homepage, you'll see the local advocacy playbook.

[00:21:24]It is free. It is for you and it is going to teach you guys exactly step by step by step on how we are accomplishing what we're doing. And don't forget you guys, we have roughly nine arrests. And on top of that, we took over the entire city of Conroe all within 90 days. And if you guys want the truth, don't forget to go to Mitch's website, mockingbirdpropies.com/dcad.

[00:21:49]You can drop down to the articles, letters, and discussions. And if you guys want to read this, I'm going to tell you right now, this is where I learned everything. Every one of these articles I read and I learned something from. And now you have the advocacy playbook, but it was all derived from what's on your screen right now. If you want to look at that, you can. It's all for free for you. Which brings us to the letter that Mitch wrote directed to the citizens of the United States of America. And Mitch Beexler, whenever you're ready, sir, will you please go over this announcement, this emergency announcement that you want to make to the citizens of the world doesn't stop at the United States. What do you got to say, man? To the citizens of the United States of America, I thought you might be able to help and that you would appreciate the gravity of the situation as it directly impacts your life and that of your family. The attached deprivation of rights, that document will be below this video, which is a deprivation of rights under the color of law, is a result of the Supreme Court of Texas on the 51126 punting of the Vexler case and violating the constitutional rights of every Texan at the exact same time. This deprivation of rights under the color of law can be used as an emergency hearing at the Supreme Court of the United States. It would be best to have an amicus cure as part of that emergency hearing request.

[00:23:10]I've reached out to multiple people that's in process now in lie of the document that I wrote called the second amendment to the criminal complaint being a 395 pages and days from being finished in this explanation of what has transpired in the last month. The second amendment to the criminal complaint was written to be delivered to the investigative authorities being the FBI, DOJ, SEC, IRS, and DNI, and to the public to provide a clear organized foundation for review and to support further investigation into the integrity of data within these systems, the design and capabilities of the underlying software. Those are the platforms.

[00:23:54]potential for systemic risk affecting financial and electoral processes. All three of which create a national security risk. On last Friday, Supreme Court of Texas denied without reason and without investigation the requested remand to the lower court for that vexler case to be adjudicated on its merits of fraud, which the lower courts agreed had occurred. Further into this document is an explanation of how I came across and how they reached out to me.

[00:24:27]Edward Solomon, Roger Fuller, and Dr. Andrew Pquette. These are the mathematicians that have found the evidence of election fraud. All of you know about the voter fraud. The voter fraud is dwarfed in comparison to the election fraud. And that election fraud, as it turns out, is inside the school district boards, the people that vote for the bonds, your school district bonds. All of this is very important. This document is well worth the read. In the second amendment of the criminal complaint is the following paragraph. The nexus between election fraud, school district bond fraud, and property tax fraud is the software used to predetermine synthetically engineered election outcomes and the software used to commit property tax fraud by manipulating property values excessively to pay for the school district bond and election fraud. Understand what that means? It is the property taxpayers that are paying for the acts of treason. That's the election fraud being committed against all citizens in the United States. That paragraph is off the charts important.

[00:25:43]It is factual and in truth cannot be denied. As I've said, if we've done anything wrong, prove it. It's crucial that everybody understand what has happened with this advocacy playbook. I want to point out that all citizens have the power to make positive change in their local community. That's what's in that playbook. If you understand social media, you can now turn the table on the fraudsters. And that is in fact what we have been doing with regard to the deprivation of rights under the color of law. I've asked Travis to just drop down to page 11. This document is a work in progress as we intend to use this for an emergency hearing at the Supreme Court of the United States. But yesterday, Travis played a clip of a gentleman with a beard, and I thought about that quite often. And as I've said, one thing always leads to another. That gentleman was frustrated beyond belief, yelling at what it is that he felt his circumstances were that he is working for no particular reason. Well, in addition to what I had produced yesterday and the dep deprivation of rights under color of law, this is the new version of that document. And I've added the 13th amendment to the US Constitution. Abolish slavery and involuntary servitude except as punishment for a crime. Involuntary servitude is a condition where a person is forced to work against their will, often under coercion or threats, pay your property tax or will take your house. It's the abject definition of RICO. And that is what I have pointed out in multiple criminal complaints as well as the second amendment to the criminal complaint that we're about to file. It's interesting that Congress in January 31, 1865 ratified on December 6th, 1865 the 13th amendment to abolish slavery. When you take into account what has truly happened here by virtue of the actions of the Supreme Court of Texas, first, 5th, 14th, 16th, sixth, and 13th amendments to the US Constitution have been violated. This is unacceptable. That is why we're asking for an emergency hearing. That is why I'm reaching out to multiple attorneys to write an amicus brief. And I am hopeful that the White House itself will write an amicus cure in support of an emergency hearing. What has happened here is not good for any American. So, just to kind of reiterate what he just said, property taxes is funding the theft of our liberty, but it's even worse than that because property taxes are unconstitutional to begin with. So, an unconstitutional, get it? That's why we need the Constitution. An unconstitutional revenue for our government is used to fund the robbery of our liberty. And that's why it's so important that you guys go and you take that class that I made on advocacy because it works and it's really easy. You guys, I'm 42 years old. You don't have to be some young kid to figure out social media. It's so easy. You just need to know the roles.

[00:28:55]Now, having said that, I want you guys to understand what Mitch is asking for.

[00:28:59]He's asking for someone of intelligence or influence or someone to help us with an amicus. If you guys believe in this or you know someone, a senator, someone that can help us push this through the Supreme Court, please reach out. Mitch's email is going to be linked in the description. We need your help. And then other than that, guys, the report that we just reviewed is going to be linked in this description. So, if you want the full report, you can get that. And having said that, guys, I hope you take back your local governments and I hope you guys are seeing what we're really doing because we need your help. And honestly, the entire United States of America also needs your help. And having said that, if you guys are out there just trying to figure out what liberty is, if you're trying to figure out what your power is, if you're trying to remember that the people own the government, you guys already know we wish you luck and we hope you win.