Production Collapsing

Añadido: 2026-05-30

[00:00:00]going. Okay. Going to give you another lumber update video. Yesterday I did a really good video talking about how the moment that we have any kind of demand taking place within the housing market, it's going to completely destroy the housing market considering the low inventory of lumber that we have available out there. Now, I got some push back from from a few viewers and I had a comment basically saying that I was ultimately fear-mongering the people and that there is plenty of lumber available. And if you just look around, you can see all these mills are just stacked with lumber. And then this is kind of their evidence of it from their local locations. Now I have to share with you evidence that I have not only coming from my own personal view being in the Pacific Northwest working in the industry but then also my understanding of macroeconomics from a global scale to think about what it is that's happening with lumber is not isolated to one particular area. If you are looking at one area and then judging that for the broader economy you are going to miss the problems that we now face. So just a real simple Google search, I just came up with a list of recent milk curtailments. And so I just asked, you know, lumber mill curtailments from 2023 till now. And this is the list that came up with it. Now, many of you have heard me talk about these milk curtailments as they were happening over the course of the last two or three years. But here's just a short list that is going to then give you the understanding that this is a crisis situation that is happening within the lumber production. Now this is what it goes down like this is all within the last two to three years. West Frasier high level this is the facility is high level in Alberta Canada OSB production. West Frasier and Cordell in Georgia USA OSB production. These are all curtailments and shutdowns. West Frasier in Augusta Augusta Augustus or uh Georgia saying that right. Uh a sawmill in Georgia. Let's see. West Frasier again in 100 mile British Columbia sawmill. West Frasier again in Frasier Lake, British Columbia, Canada.

[00:02:12]Sawmill. Uh Dumpner. Now I'm not sure if I'm saying that right, but you know Dumpner. This is the Croftton uh facility. British Columbia. It's a pulp mill. Dumpner again in uh Ignis Ignis Ignes uh Ontario, Canada. Again, another sawmill. Dumpner again, Glenwood, Arkansas, USA sawmill. Dumpner again out uh Otar Otard Otterards. Uh Quebec again another sawmill. Interfer Ontario Canada sawmill. Inner for again.

[00:02:49]Dquincy, Louisiana. Uh, sawmill. Western Forest Products in Shamanus, if I got that right. British Columbia sawmill. Arbeck Amos in Quebec, Canada. Again, another OSB mill. Rosberg in Weed, California.

[00:03:07]Many people remember that one just recently happening. I think that was about a year ago. Uh, Veneer, California. That was a veneer uh mill in California. And that actually moved production over to the Oregon facility if I remember right. Industry. I never heard of this one before, but it's pretty neat name. Industree, you know, Alexander City. Unfortunately, they shut down their production there. And that's Alabama, USA sawmill. McKe's Ferry, Roper, North Carolina, USA sawmill. Uh, green first. This is in various some in Ontario or Quebec, Canada. I'm not sure which one. Another sawmill. Herrian in Manorville. Manarville, Alabama. Sawmill there. PSA in Wahula, Washington. Another paper mill up there.

[00:03:58]And that's just a handful of them.

[00:04:01]Right. That's all in the last two years.

[00:04:04]These are all facilities that have either curtailed development or completely shut down. Right? And when I mean curtail development, they are not like permanently shutting down. They are like temporarily shutting down so they don't have to face a lot of the issues that they would have with a permanent shutdown. But the point is is that they're not in production. And all these mills that are shutting down over the last 2 or 3 years have literally pulled like something like 4 billion board feet of production out of the market.

[00:04:34]This is crazy to think about, right? 4 billion feet. Now I know a lot may have actually to do with the hardwood industry as well, but it doesn't really matter. It's the forest industry and the production of lumber. And now I generally specifically look at the softwood industry, but it's more than that. It's more than just the framing lumber, right? There's hardwood lumber, softwood lumber. There's all kinds of forestry products that are taking place out there. The point being is that they're all devastated right now. Every one of them is.

[00:05:04]And so when I think about what it is that we can expect for the future when you have this much milk curtailments and shutdowns taking place, I mean to think about it. I had this listed off how many of them? And when I hear people talk about just like, "Oh man, you should just come to our area and look at the stacks of lumber that we have here." And I'm thinking, you do realize that the mills don't produce unless they have a place to go with it. All the lumber that you see stacked up at the mills, all the ones at the distribution hubs, that all has a place to go.

[00:05:33]It's when the order files from the time that you order lumber till the time that you can receive it. When those order files are shortening up and coming closer and closer to present day, those mills start shutting down production right now. When those order files start stretching out further and further, that's when the mills are starting to produce more because that's how far out it takes in order to fulfill the orders that people are then demanding. People do not look at order files. There is no place to go to to see the order files unless you happen to be in the business itself.

[00:06:09]And so as people say, "Oh, dude, you're just in the wrong area. You should see all the lumber stacked up in my area."

[00:06:13]It was just like they have no idea what they're looking at.

[00:06:17]When I hear a statement that says, "Oh, there is tons of unharvested lumber."

[00:06:23]And I'm thinking that doesn't make any sense whatsoever. There is no such thing as unh harvested lumber.

[00:06:31]Lumber is a sawed up product from timber. There is standing timber, unh harvested timber. But to understand that even if you can cut the trees, that there is no mill to send it to. It doesn't matter how many trees you have standing to understand that there is a demand for timber outside of the United States.

[00:06:54]And that is really what drives the timber industry. Not just what it is that we are consuming here domestically, but how much consumption is taking place for our forestry products outside of the United States.

[00:07:08]As people say, dude, there's plenty of standing lumber. And I think that doesn't make any sense. There is no such thing as standing lumber.

[00:07:16]There's standing timber. And it doesn't matter if you can cut that tree down if you have no place to send it to. And this is the unfortunate consequence of what we find when you shut down this many operations.

[00:07:29]The people who are in operation, I'm sure probably look very busy right now.

[00:07:34]They're the only ones producing.

[00:07:37]So when I think, man, how is this going to affect the future when it comes to the housing market? Can you imagine at any point in time if there was any increase to the demand of construction?

[00:07:48]And now I'm not talking about the inventory of houses. And I'm not talking about any of that stuff. I'm talking about lumber and the demand for lumber and the inventories of lumber. When I call to get a unit of lumber and they have to check to see if they even have it available, that is not typical. That is showing shortages.

[00:08:09]When I see order files that are volatile from one week to the next because nobody knows exactly where it is that the inventory levels are, this is showing bullwhip effect running through the economy. Many people are never going to see this because they are so focused in on their own area that they will not take a look at the broader landscape.

[00:08:32]So again, as I think about any increase in demand, most people don't think about what it is that we are about ready to experience. Okay, so the Federal Reserve cut interest rates about 6 months ago.

[00:08:42]Do you realize that those interest rate cuts are right now going to be affecting the economy for about the next 6 months to a year?

[00:08:51]Those interest rate cuts that came from the Federal Reserve 6 months ago come with a lag.

[00:08:56]Here it is taking place for the next year.

[00:09:01]Can you imagine what it's going to be like with the elevated inflation and inflation expectation that now runs persistent through the economy with the Fed funds rate that is now becoming less restricted if not accommodating. At the same time, we have a shortage taking place within the supply of lumber and many people don't want to believe it.

[00:09:20]I'm looking at the production capabilities of it. It's just not there.

[00:09:24]If all these mills have shut down, they can't snap up production right away. It takes time.

[00:09:31]And if you shut down the logging operations, who is it that's going to come in and cut the trees? If there is no export for the timber, I can only imagine that any kind of increase in demand in a less restricted economy is going to send the lumber prices through the roof.

[00:09:51]There's not enough capability to meet any kind of significant demand. Think about it. Billions, billions and billions of board feet of production have been pulled from the market. Think about the list of mills that I have just suggested that have happened in just the last few years, let alone what took place back in 2019.

[00:10:12]This is just only adding to the problem that nobody sees out there. Many of you know that I get a letter once a week that talks about some of the issues that we are now facing within the lumber industry across the different parts of the country. And I would have to say that the lumber newsletter that I get once a week is very telling of the same situation that I have been describing for literally months if not years now.

[00:10:35]And it's going to come to fruition at some point where you're going to recognize the issue.

[00:10:40]Right?

[00:10:46]Where was it here?

[00:10:48]Demand seemed steady, but buyers were looking for discounts. Mills were looking for premiums and no one seemed to come away happy. Most mills are now reporting June order files.

[00:11:02]Most buyers only continue to buy short-term needs.

[00:11:09]Nobody's wanting to pick up any inventory. So, if they're only buying for short-term needs, they can't fill, you know, they're not filling up their yards.

[00:11:18]Uh let's see here.

[00:11:22]I haven't. This is the first time I've actually looked at this letter.

[00:11:26]Let's see. Mill production. Okay.

[00:11:28]Talking about plywood quotes uh picked up a little this week, but mills are slow to respond. Mill production remain limited. Interest continued to be centered around the 3/4 CDX.

[00:11:41]Um let's see. Pricing and lead times remained at least weeks level. 2x4 shorter lengths remained harder to find.

[00:11:51]Okay, talking about the western spruce pine fur, the SPF and 2x4 number two SPF shorter lengths remained harder to find.

[00:11:58]This is something that we have been reporting on as well. The stud lengths, especially in premium premium and appearance grades. And again, this is something like I'm not making this stuff up. This is stuff that I report on because I am seeing it. But there's not a lot of places that I can send you to go and confirm the information when I share this letter with you. This isn't something that I can just go out there and just say, "Hey man, go to this website and go and look at it for yourself." All right? But to say like to let you guys know ahead of time that we carry a premium grade and we try to find those premium grades so that we have something better than what the competition is offering and we have a difficult time finding those things. And I'm reporting that to you and then here it is. is confirmed within this letter.

[00:12:39]Right. Also, number two premium grade eight studs trims remained in demand and hard to find in car low quantities.

[00:12:50]Let's see there. There seems to be availability of 2x6 number two SPF resulting in shorter lead times and leading the mills to listen to counters.

[00:13:00]So, that's funny. Like the the number two and lesser grade like the premium grades are hard to find, but the number twos are right. Those are things that are becoming more available out there.

[00:13:10]They produce like the lesser quality because that's in higher demand when it comes to the production. Like they don't use necessarily the premium grades and mass production out there. They buy the cheapest lumber possible that they can get away with.

[00:13:25]Let me see. Let me continue on here.

[00:13:26]Sorry, I should have read over this before I started this video.

[00:13:32]Um, why am Let's see here. Eastern SPF, another steady week for 2x4 and 2x6 number two randoms. Mill inquiries still this week were met with more no quotes than had been seen in the previous week. 6-in stud trims were scarce for 104 and 5/8 and 116 and 58 make right. So these things from east to west coast the shorts are becoming limited. That's a significant sign. This is the like this is a almost like a critical component, right? Like you can cut your own studs, but to to think about cutting every stud that you need for a house as opposed to buying pre-cut studs, that's a huge added cost that's going into it. And to think that these things are becoming up in short supply. I mean, this is production material and that's a critical component. It's like again I mean I wouldn't relate it down to necessarily the to the level of like chip shortages but that's the sort of like the experience like when the computer chip shortages came on uh the southern yellow pine market has hit bottom and is on the way up right again I kept telling people man we are at the bottom narrows of 2x4 2x6 are leading the way both in number one and number two we are seeing city gates okay Um, yeah. So, it looks like there's a higher demand. We, it says we are seeing steady gains in wides and primarily in 12T lengths. And 12T lengths on lumber if it's not a stud like a 12T is the next most common thing sold out there. Uh, western western species of dry dimension.

[00:15:21]No quote was a popular phrase of the week at the mill level and decreased production continues to drive the market. I keep telling you guys they're pulling back on production. It's because there's low demand. It's because the prices aren't conducive to the to the input cost. If they were selling it for a higher price, they would be producing more. But right now, they're like they're not in the game. They don't want to do it at this level. Uh let's see here. Decreased production continues to drive this market. premium offerings and studs and dimensions items across all specy species almost seems like a myth at this point. Premium offerings, right?

[00:16:00]Nobody's offering any kind of discounts for anything out there. Whatever is available, you're paying the price for because that's all that's available.

[00:16:07]Again, like nobody recognizes this because there's no demand. The moment that the demand picks up, it's over.

[00:16:12]This stuff is going to come snapping into fruition in ways that people are never expecting. And I've been sh I again I try to share this stuff and people who push back against the information because of their local area and what it is that they are viewing. I have to say man you have to take a wider view of this. All right.

[00:16:31]Um buyers had seek out alternative opt options to cover their needs regardless of these items. For example, the price spread between a number two and a better in appearance grade of inland hem fur 92 and 5/8 trim studs is 145 per thousand which is normally closer to 50 to 70.

[00:16:52]See they're paying any price to get it.

[00:16:54]So if they I mean that's incredible. The buyers have had to seek out alternative options to cover their needs.

[00:17:04]You you hear that? This is the western species dry. This is because of the limitations that are happening out there. I wish I had like read this first because this is probably the most critical information that can be, you know, heard out there. Buyers have had to seek alternative options to cover their needs in regards to these items.

[00:17:24]For example, the price spread between a number two and better in appearance grade on inland hemur two 92 and 5/8 trim studs is 145 per thousand which is closer which is normally closer to 50 to 70 per thousand spread in a traditional market. So it's now doubled. They are willing to pay double the spread from a number two embedtor to an appearance grade stud because of the availability of the number two. It's just simply not there. So they're willing to pay a higher price for the premium grades and the premium grades are coming up in short supply too. And this is the reason why these prices are increasing.

[00:18:06]I don't know. Like I mean I guess everybody can like you know give it to their own you know meaning that they want but it says here to expect this same trend for the foreseeable future and I totally agree with that.

[00:18:24]Yeah it says here keep your eyes out keep your opportunities arise for mills albeit a few and far between currently however they are still popping. talking about opportunities at the mills. Um the 92 and 58 are 92 and 58 trims are a premium product. 2x10 2x12 in all species are the toughest items to source at this point in time. You see the limitations like the 2x10 2x 12 they're not nearly as popular as those pre-cut studs are as far as the random lengths go. And so these are the things that are coming up in short supply.

[00:19:07]I know like everybody can give it their own information, their own meaning and believe whatever it is that they want out of it. But I've been following this stuff for a very long time and considering what it is that we have experienced for mill curtailments over the last couple of years and knowing what it is that I know about the lumber industry and the availability of lumber when I call up and ask for it. Knowing the different grades that are then being produced as opposed to the ones that are coming up in limitation and then watching these spreads start to occur within it. Man, this is dangerous.

[00:19:38]This is dangerous as hell. Here it is.

[00:19:40]The Federal Reserve had lowered interest rates about six months a year, six months ago. It takes 6 months to a year for the Fed funds rate adjustment to impact the economy. At the same time, we have elevated inflation and inflation expectation, which is going to lower the real interest rates via the Fiser effect. Don't tell me, man, this stuff isn't set up to explode.

[00:20:02]You can't tell like it's only a matter of time. It's like, you know, just sitting around waiting for the ticking time bomb to go off, right? If there is any pop to home builder demand, right?

[00:20:14]If you see the home buyer come to market for whatever reason, whether it's a lower real interest rates or a stimulating effect to the economy, for whatever reason, those buyers come back to the market and those builders see that happen and their confidence within those buyers is then becoming more evident, you are going to see the home builder sentiment start to increase and those prices of lumber is going to explode. There's not enough available lumber out there. All these mills have shut down.

[00:20:45]How what what other result could ever possibly take place unless there is just simply no demand from now on if it never changes from here which I guess a lot of people could you know kind of believe that there will never be any increase to demand ever again from any direction and if that's the case then okay yeah we're on a one-way street to hell right but if you think that at some point there is going to be a reversal to the situation we now face and you start finding that the home buyer comes back to the market, whether or not the interest rates are getting better via the Fed lowering rates or the Fisher effect, one way or the other, we may find that the reversal within the housing market starts driving the home builder demand and there is not enough lumber. This is evident of it, right?

[00:21:34]Okay, 21 minutes into this live stream.

[00:21:36]A little babbly, but you guys love it.

[00:21:38]So, let's read some comments. such a different way to see what's going on in the lumber industry than me looking at my southern yellow pine sheds and saying, "Oh, well, it's summer in Texas.

[00:21:53]It's going to be slow and we will have empty sheds."

[00:22:00]I got a bundle of studs.

[00:22:03]Boomers are all luciferians.

[00:22:06]Okay, that's crazy thing to type hard.

[00:22:10]Yeah, I I agree that is kind of crazy.

[00:22:13]All right, so the demand is there.

[00:22:15]Sawmills are curtail there's no demand.

[00:22:18]Sawills are cailing to keep lumber prices high. No, lumber is not high.

[00:22:22]It's incredibly low. Anything under 550 per thousand and the lumber mills just simply will not operate.

[00:22:28]Like would you make money? Would you go and work for a wage that doesn't provide you with enough to even drive to work?

[00:22:35]Like this is what most people are experiencing. They're pissed off. Do you think I mean why would a mill do that? I don't understand. Like most people are like, "Oh no, they're keeping the lumber prices high." 550 per thousand is low.

[00:22:49]We're at 580 590 per thousand or something like that on today's futures.

[00:22:54]Do you realize back in 2018 it was 650 per thousand?

[00:23:00]It was 100 per thousand like you know 80 per thousand higher in 2018 than it is today. And you want to say that the lumber prices are high the mills can't operate at this level. It's going to need to be much higher than this. I mean do you think that the energy prices have gone down fuel prices have gone down?

[00:23:20]Labor prices have gone down.

[00:23:21]Transportation prices have gone down to match that of 2018.

[00:23:26]Why in the world would they want to produce at this price? They can't. They have to get a higher price or else you're going to see more continuation of the shutdowns.

[00:23:37]And so, yes, they will pull back on production to to increase the the price to create the supply demand imbalances so that the prices will go up so that they can be profitable again. Why would like I don't understand why would you think that they would want to profit like produce without a profit? That doesn't make any sense, does it?

[00:23:59]I mean, do they just do like they're a business looking to profit? Like I mean, do they just do it out of the goodness of their heart? You know, of course not, right? They got to make money at it. If they don't make money, they're like, "All right, sorry, guys. We're out of here." And that's exactly what they do.

[00:24:13]Um, government subsidies. Yeah, if you're in Canada.

[00:24:22]All right. Chronically online. Can't say I'm not that way, but most of my screen time is chess.

[00:24:32]I'm sorry. I'm just angry. Well, the problem, okay, hard. We're not going to get into it too much, but the problem with being angry is that you get a direct result of your experience from what it is that you're thinking and feeling on the inside. So, think about that. Your experience in the world is a direct reflection of that. The energy that you carry then is projected out there and is your view. Okay? So think about that. When you believe those sort of things, that's what you're going to view out there for your experience.

[00:25:07]Simon, it would be legitimate if you did a lumber video where you analyze the reports you get. if you could can would be interesting to see which regions are hit differently. Um I the thing is about the report like I wish I could share it with you but it's not something that I can necessarily share with you in that sense like here's a link to it. Um but to also like kind of think about like the the lumber industry is is really vast to understand there's two different markets. There's like the Doug fur market and the southern yellow pine market. These two diff carry different different like you know supply demand issues that are within it. So it's it's not something that is so simple as like a silver spot price can be followed.

[00:25:59]What you really have to do is understand like the demand coming from builders and then the availability of that lumber from the different regions by the availability of mill production. And that's not easy to necessarily see, but you can see it when it comes to like increase in building permit issuance.

[00:26:18]And then when you start seeing the futures move up, right? So when you start seeing those futures start to move, you're going to see that being the availability like the supply demand imbalances start to show up there in the futures as the distribution hubs are trying to you know secure their their inventories or major builders of the US are trying to you know trying to secure their inventories for for future productions and stuff like that. So in this sense then you could probably see at least some sort of activity that is happening within the lumber industry within those different regions by following like the southern yellow pine market as opposed to the Doug fur market and then cuz you know that the southern yellow pine market is more of the southern part of the of the of the country and the Doug fur market is up in the northern part. These are two like again completely almost completely different industries that are active within the home building market that is broadly viewed. Does that kind of make sense? I mean it's like it's almost like two different building materials taking place at the same time. OSB and southern yellow pine and then plywood and doug fur. And so it's it's difficult to just say, "Hey, this is one thing that you can watch." you know, it's like you got to be kind of almost in the game and then watch the different aspects of it or the different pieces of it. But again, that isn't always easy to do.

[00:27:40]Um, chess is a good brain exercise. I should play more. Solar panels sheds production to make profits.

[00:27:53]Do you predict supply shortages coming?

[00:27:55]There there already this is what I'm getting at the I mean talking about lumber specifically there already is supply shortages there's already supply shortages the shortages are already here but they're not present to the people's view because there's no demand for it until you start to demand it then you won't notice that there's nothing there right the mo like you know it's just like if you don't demand it then you don't know that it's not there but the moment that you demand it and you say and I tell you, well, it's going to be limited. It's not going to be there for you. Then you see the shortage, right? But there's nowhere out there to see it because there's no demand for it. The moment that it picks up, it's going to become quite obvious to the people. Now, I couldn't tell you when that's going to happen, but again, like if you think about it from a macroeconomics and the monetary point of view, if the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates six months ago, those lowering of interest rates on the Fed funds level is going to be impacting the economy for the next six months to a year.

[00:28:55]If inflation expectations are elevated and remain elevated and the Federal Reserve continues to stand still, then we are going to have a less restricted if not easing economy via the Fiser effect. Now, I'm trying to share with you guys that if that happens, the demand for lumber is probably going to go up and there's not a lot out there.

[00:29:16]And that's why I keep sharing the milk curtailments and inventory depletions and how it is that we can witness this happening within the premium studs and you know the those premium lengths that are out there. This is evidence of it, but it's not in the news.

[00:29:35]What time is it? I got a few more minutes here, I guess. Okay. Will that man ever go back to the way it was?

[00:29:46]I don't know what that was. Okay. Uh I closed my short position on Bitcoin using MST. I am directionless at this point in time, but I think it's going to go up a little bit more a little bit and then Bitcoin will start to go down further. I have no confidence though, so I'm out. Uh will the demand ever go back to the way it was? I don't think like >> the way it was >> battery level high.

[00:30:17]>> Oh, hold on.

[00:30:21]>> Um, the way it was, which way was like what I mean, are you talking about like during the COVID peak? No, probably not.

[00:30:28]Like that was pretty exceptional. Um, but I would imagine that because you got to think like the the real interest rates were deeply negative during that time and nobody really understood what was happening and like even I was like trying to figure it out at the time and I knew something was up like but I couldn't quite explain it until like finally now. I mean now it's hindsight's always 2020, right? So it's pretty obvious that if the Federal Reserve holds state holds rates steady and then the inflation expectation which seems to be quite elevated remains elevated going into the future that's going to lower the real interest rates if not make them negative.

[00:31:11]Now at the same time, all right, the Federal Reserve is in a position in which that even if they were to adjust rates, it would take 6 months to a year.

[00:31:21]So now we know that this is baked into the cake. This Fed funds position right from 6 months ago is now impacting the economy. This is important to understand because again, if that inflation expectation remains persistent, this economy is going to become accommodating.

[00:31:40]Nobody's going to quite understand it.

[00:31:41]Very much like they didn't understand what was happening in 2022 as the prices of homes were going through the roof at the same time. Inflation was going through the roof and the Fed funds rate were going higher.

[00:31:52]Everybody was just like, how is this all possible? But to when you look at it from the real interest rates, the Fiser effect, it starts to make a lot more sense. And I believe that is going to happen here in the economy. And I believe if you look at lumber and watch lumber, it's going to be evident in there. I don't know about necessarily first, but I think you can confirm it happening within lumber once you start seeing it move up. All right. Once the demand for it starts to pick up.

[00:32:20]All right.

[00:32:23]Uh I don't want to go back to the way it was. I was losing money on the stock market. Now I'm actually winning. So let's keep it here. I don't think we have much other choice.

[00:32:35]All right.

[00:32:40]Bitcoin took a p yesterday fell below key level on my charts. I would say more down before up. Yes, I took about 20% of MST cuz I owe Simon another 20.

[00:32:56]Thank you. Deplorable what the demand will be apartments different kind of demand. That's the past luxury houses.

[00:33:03]Yeah, and I believe that's probably going to end up being the case. It's going to be more like multi-residential properties out there as opposed to the single individual house.

[00:33:13]But, you know, I mean, whatever it is that's out there that's driving it, it's, you know, it's not I mean, I wish it was like a different way for the people to be hopeful in the sense that they would have a return back to like the American dream capabilities. And I just don't see that being being the case. So to understand like we're in a new economy that is K-shaped, right? Like I don't even like the K-shaped economy description. It's more two tiers. That's what it is.

[00:33:48]You're either in the wedge of earners, like on the lower end end of the wage earners, you know, on the lower bottom side of the wedge earning wages to try and make your way or you're an asset holder, right, that then uses the assets to pay your way. So even though there might be kind of crossovers between the two, because you're an asset holder doesn't mean you have this awesome way of life and you're on the other side of the wedge. And just because you're a wage earner doesn't mean you're on the bottom side of the wedge. There is crossovers in between, but for the most part, the people who are earning wages and then using those wages to buy assets and then using the assets to fund their way of life, those are the people who are probably like absolutely loving this economy right now. And there's a lot of people out there who suffer the consequences of not positioning themselves accordingly throughout their life and then they want to blame the groups that did that. Right? So now you can think about it in that fashion.

[00:34:48]There are people out there who are working earning a wage but they don't seem to feel the pain in the economy the same as the wage earner who has no asset allocation whatsoever.

[00:34:59]So this is the divide that's happening.

[00:35:01]You got the two tiers asset holders and wage earners. And just because again, just because you're an asset holder doesn't mean you're kicking ass in life, right? It depends on how many assets you hold. And just because you're a wage earner doesn't mean that you're suffering the consequences from it according to how it is that you conditioned your life to be on your necessities. But for the most part, those who earn wages and position themselves into assets and then use the assets to fund their way of life, those are the people who are absolutely killing it, right?

[00:35:33]until they don't even need to be wagers anymore, you know.

[00:35:40]All right, I gotta be done here pretty soon. What time is it? All right, I got a few more minutes here. All right, we got Kevin. Hey, brother. We got cheers to Hey, Jerome. Hey, Kevin.

[00:35:57]Hey, Ner.

[00:36:00]Um, I'm scrambling to get ready and get out of here to Arizona for the week. When are you heading to Alaska? Are you going to Alaska?

[00:36:21]Okay.

[00:36:23]Are we done here, guys? All right. Got UEIE link though text the other day. Had no idea who sent it because the phone changeover was allnighter hider. Now he's texting me every stream. So I'll probably be here often. Right on. I held off from luxuries my whole life. Now I'm reluctant to spend mindset. Mindset can't change. The mindset can change.

[00:36:52]What it is is like you got to understand the subconscious belief system that you have developed that denied you the ability to move into luxurious experiences because of the survival mechanism within your head that says if I buy luxurious experience it'll kill me. Now you have to understand that the buying of a luxurious experience for you like I'm not saying this is just you and me talking.

[00:37:18]Everybody else hold be quiet. Everybody else step aside for a minute. The understanding of like the luxurious experience that separates the rich from the poor is not your personal responsibility.

[00:37:29]Right? If you were in a position in which that you could enjoy the luxuries of your life and you are to that point in your life where in which that you should be enjoying the luxuries and you can't find yourself in that ability to do it, you have to think, man, you're stuck in a survival mode, right? If I buy luxuries, I will fail. And so now you have to think to yourself, will I buy luxury? If I buy luxuries, will I fail? Will it completely collapse my entire existence and then I will end up on the streets? And if your answer to that is no, but yet you still feel in your body some sort of anxiety about buying into the luxurious experience, you have to think, okay, what is it that has triggered this from my subconscious that I then have to let go of? Because it doesn't really matter if it's this luxurious experience. It could be anything that does this, right? It could be anything. It doesn't really matter.

[00:38:18]Right? So now when you think about that in that fashion, this won't kill me.

[00:38:23]What is it that's going on inside my head that has given me this thought that if I buy this luxurious experience, I will somehow fail, right? Or feel guilty about it or whatever. Once you let go of that, right, then you will find the enjoyment of the luxurious experience is not going to kill you and it's not going to ruin anything about your life. So long as you understand it in that fashion. See, even I myself have that same thought. You know, I was just like, could I afford to go out and get a new car? Absolutely I could. But in my mind, I got so many other things that I have to take care of first that if I go and buy a new car, I wouldn't be able to do those things. And then a whole world will start to come undone. And I think to myself, dude, what in the world is that? Right? That doesn't exist. That's only made up.

[00:39:08]That's only made up. That's not that's not a reality. you know the reality is much different from the madeup situation that you put inside of your head. So then you have to think to yourself where does this come from? Like why do I feel this anxiety and scarce in this scarcity mindset is really left over from the primitive you know human being from the days of like trying to live in a pack mentality that if you got excluded from the herd you would be like you know essentially being written a death sentence. So no matter what decision you made, it had to be the right one because ultimately death would be the consequence of it. And our primitive brains don't really understand the difference between that, right? This is something that I thought about or learned about the other day, didn't really learn about it. Is something that was reiterated to me in a way that made a lot more sense now. And so as I see people facing this consequence of like oh man the the government's going to do this that the other thing or all these anxietyridden aspects of their life that they put inside of their you know future belief system. This is really like them in a survival mindset left over from a primitive day that if they made the wrong decision they would die, right?

[00:40:23]Like that's that's not the case nowadays. And most people don't realize that that's what's going on and why it is that they feel so much pain and worry and all this other stuff going on in their existence is because they don't their body their mind doesn't know the difference between them making a choice that was just kind of stupid or them making a choice that killed them. It just doesn't know the difference. So it's trying to say, "Hey man, be worried. You're about ready to die from this." But you're not, right? You're not. So go out there and enjoy the luxury, man.

[00:40:59]All right. I am pressing buttons for a living. I can't wait until the pattern the pattern day trading rule is dropped on June 1st. I'm having a party mentality.

[00:41:16]With labor participation going up, jobs will no longer be issue. low unemployment rates for the foreseeable future. I've never like I've never worried about the unemployment rate when it comes to the Federal Reserve and their monetary policy. It's just not something that's really been a concern.

[00:41:33]Not since the flattening of the Phillips curve and the, you know, ending of inflationary pressures from a low unemployment environment. It just like the jobs market is just less critical to the Fed's monetary policy. And since they can't really stimulate a consumer through the wage increase, it goes through asset allocation and increase in asset holders.

[00:41:59]That's where the consumption comes from.

[00:42:01]They're really not even focused on the wage or on the wage earner or the jobs market anymore. So long as you have a job, that's it. That's all they care about. It doesn't even have to be a good job, just a job. And that way the unemployment stays low and they successful and part of their dual mandate. All righty guys, I'm going to call it quits. Uneducated economist, you guys let me know.