The AI boom's projected $2 trillion cloud backlog is heavily concentrated, with 50% coming from just two companies (OpenAI and Anthropic), and approximately 50% of cloud spending represents circular money where companies invest in cloud services and then spend those funds back with the same providers, creating an artificial revenue cycle that could collapse if spending stops, similar to historical market bubbles like the dotcom boom.
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The 2 Trillion Secret : Is Big Tech Faking the AI Boom?Added:
AI is real. There's no question about that. But is the stock overhyped?
There's lots of people that are starting to think that it is. In fact, many people are now saying that there's certain stock in the AI boom that are just completely out of control and it's going to be a market crash. Could that really happen or were we just seeing the start of a revolution? Think back to the dotcom boom. When that happened, you had lots of companies that were super successful ultimately like Amazon and Meta. But actually, there was also other companies that completely fell away because they couldn't make profits.
Could that happen with AI? Well, the answer is, could it happen? Yes. Will it happen? We don't know yet. But there's some facts that you need to know. Let me explain. First of all, there's a secret of 2 trillion. 50% of the profits that are coming and being bragged about by people like Oracle, by Amazon, cloudspace that's been booked for the future. Two trillion of it comes from 50% of it comes from two companies, just two companies, chat GPT and Anthrop.
Imagine they're bragging about two trillion, but it's coming from two companies that right now are not making profits. So we look at the future and we say, can that really continue? Is AI spending going to continue? Can people like Meta turn it into a profit? Because if spending falls, bang, guess what?
There's a lot of stock in the market that's also going to fall. Think about it this way. If you had $100 or $100 and you gave it to your friend on the basis that they bought money, they bought lemonade at your lemonade stand. So in other words, there's your friend, there's a hundred. Okay, you've got to spend it. However, at my lemonade stand, he buys the lemonade. And when you sell the lemonade, you boast to everybody that you've just sold $100 of lemonade and sales are booming. Okay. Well, that's what's happening right now.
You've got companies claiming that yes, cloud storage is booming. There's massive amount of orders for the future, two trillion of it. It's coming, however, from two companies. And there's more. In other words, what's the more?
world. The companies that are boosting, boasting about it are actually investing in the companies that are buying the cloud space. So I'm urge you'll get a company that invests 10 billion into cloud into open AI on the basis that they spend the 10 billion that they have invested with them into cloud space. So just imagine you get a company and they go all right you have 10 billion as long as you spend 10 billion with us.
circular money. 50% of cloud storage is going in circular money. So when you're investing right now, just realize that potentially their spending stops. And if the spending stops, you see lots of stock fall off. And here's a scary graph if you can see it. You go back and you go all the way back to various different booms where you've seen Japan and you got tech to a situation where it was 44% then it fell 80%. Okay, same thing happened in the future here with tech and telecom. Okay, right now we got a situation whereby guess what the top big companies in the S&P 10 okay guess what it's 41%. Many people think, "Wow, now we're overexposed."
What do you think? Okay, I use AI every day. There's so many uses of it. For sure, people are going to be using it in the future. It's going to be successful.
But then, of course, we think about it.
The internet's successful. But there was companies that fell away. Be aware when you're investing money, you need to make sure talk to an advisor, be in the right companies, be in the right space, have your money actively managed so you know you can be in a situation where you can put your money in the right place, right time. Is the circular spending, is it real, okay, or is it perhaps a little bit fake? Or is it just normal for businesses to do that? What's your opinion? Leave a comment below.
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