A classic attempt to map rigid Elliott Wave patterns onto market noise while navigating the friction of regional regulatory shifts. It offers a facade of mathematical certainty that serves more as a psychological stabilizer than a definitive trading edge.
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😎 BITCOIN TROCANDO OS PNEUS 🔵 ANÁLISE AO VIVO DO BTCAdded:
Hey, one of the toughest trios on the market.
Chata maroja da ram junto. Come on, funk is a hit! Tradero arrived dominating the scene. A united community that is always well-informed. Sardinha got lost, he could n't handle the pressure. It's the good morning of the trios that commands the operation. Woof woof. He already warned us. Support is for sale.
Resistance prevailed. It's time to cry.
Maró already sends the lyrics to Lot. It's not magic, it 's accurate analysis, not futurology. It should be fine to ask within the system. Where's my lollipop? Bronze is the dilemma. It's connected, always giving a signal. He typed it in all caps, so it's blocked right away. Treiro arrived dominating the scene. A united community, always well- informed. Sadia lost its way, it can't handle the pressure. It's the gang of the trailblazers that runs the PCado. It's crazy, but we're taking advantage of it. No bra got sharp. Our bankroll just keeps growing. BTC went down, and we're making money by crying non-stop. Profit all day long, strong community, family gathered on Discord, it's all about banter and it's a daily thing. Sardinha goes crazy seeing our success. Traders in charge, there's no turning back here.
Trader arrived dominating the scene. A united community, always well-informed.
Sadinha got lost, she can't handle the pressure. It's the group of convoys that's in charge of the operation. Go chaca, go cha Maroja, go Maroja, go V, go V. Go Rames, go Rames.
It's the Traders family making it happen.
It appeared on the screen and resulted in a real profit.
Trader arrived dominating the scene. A united community, always well-informed.
Sadinha lost her temper, she can't handle the pressure.
It's the gang of street vendors that's running the operation there, Satinha. There's no point in trying to copy it. Here are the original training sessions. Chaca sent word. Here, family is united.
Trendeiros is powerful. We're all in this together, Triros family.
Good morning, traders! How's it going, everyone? Guys, before anything else, just double-check that you can hear me properly and that the image quality is good, because it's pouring rain here. I have two internet connections, one of them has already gone down, and the second one here, every now and then when I click on Stream Arts, I'm finding it kind of slow. Do you think the quality is okay for you guys? Let me take a look here.
Wait a minute, wait a minute, wait a minute, wait a minute.
D, please confirm this in the chat.
Everything's OK. Everything's OK. Okay, then. Awesome!
Hey everyone, how are you doing? Everything alright?
I hope you are all doing very well. Let 's go for another super naughty live stream.
Let's do an update on the market. It's been about a week since I last appeared here on YouTube. The market didn't leave the same region it was in, but one of the things we did in the last live stream was precisely this, right? This was made on YouTube.
We projected the possible trades that would make the most sense on YouTube.
This was public content. I set this up with you guys.
Unless I'm mistaken, I actually sent it to the free section of Discord, not the free analysis section. Let me take a look here.
Where? My God. Free analyses. Where?
Wow. Free Reviews? Yeah, I sent it in a different format, but it's basically the same thing, right? The first area of interest is long, the second is short, and the area of interest is short, which would be shorting against the high that formed at 82,600, 82,700.
So, uh, that's basically applying this here, but we did this live too, I think I just did n't post it there, right? I, I, I did a live stream here with you guys, which was basically buying things in this area near ViewAP Ancorada, right? which ended up not even playing, it only played later here. And then there was a comeback, but they ended up losing and now they're fighting to win again. And basically shorting this line here in green against the maximum, right, against the 82,800 that it also paid. So, actually these rotations aren't very extensive, but for me it's more than enough to trade, because it's already close to a 4% range, right? Oh, 3.82% pulled back up there. In terms of the actual range, we'll have 4% here up to the high of 4.3%. So it's a variation that I consider relevant to trade. I don't like trading very, very, very short price zones of 1.5%, 2%, because I think that falls into a trading profile that's too fast, you know, for those who really have time to be scalping. But when we're talking about some rotations like that, which can even happen within the same day if the market is fast, but in general it usually lasts a few days when we have the price kind of stuck within a zone.
And in this drop here you can see that it's already down another 4.5%, so from here to the peak we're back to 5.2%. So, in my view, it's a range that's worth operating with these rotations, these back-and-forth movements. So, for those who were in the last live stream, that's basically what they caught, right? We had a trade, even a long one. Where is it from deep down there? My God. Yes, the trade was actually closed, right? I placed my bet, I'm king in trading. Where? Let me put it here. BTC, BTC, BTC USDT. I had re-entered that trade, I actually entered the trade here at 65,000 and then we kept taking profits, taking profits, taking profits. There's very little left of the position, about 10-15% of it. Then I made a re-entry more or less around here, I set the stop loss really tight here, right? And in the end, he formed another fund and left. But overall, we came close to realizing something close to 1,000 in profit from that position, right? Almost 1,000 in profit from the SDT position, from the Trade Long. And this one here, this pair of shorts that I put together, was precisely because we had a lot of longboards available at the market, right? And so, I always like to use these long positions here, even really small long positions in terms of margin, to give you an example of how it's possible to earn money, to make some cash, right? Because if we take everything that has accumulated in this portfolio over the last 45 days, it will amount to something close to, right? So, and this is using little capital, because the risks I 'm taking on in this portfolio, okay, it's a portfolio of 60,000, but I'm entering with a risk of 0.2%, 0.15%, at most 0.3%, right? So, you see that it's possible to make money even without having a lot of capital, without needing to leverage yourself, right?
Well, because it's okay, what if you used 0.5, 0.7, 1% risk in those positions. It's a slightly more daring profile, but with less capital. For example, if you had 1/3 or 1/4 of this capital, you could do this if you increased the risk, going from 2% or 15% to 5%, 6%, or 8%, and you would still be quite profitable, right? And then we put together this pair of shorts, and I've already made quite a bit of profit from these shorts, right? A short position was also around $0.000, 8,000 or 8,100 actually, because it was 0.1 BTC.
I've already made 0.04 out of the 0.1, so I have 0.06 BTC left. Here at 4884, there's already something close to $ realized, 96.42, and another 85 open here, okay? I prefer to leave this trade stopped out here, I 'll just move the stop loss a little bit here, it doesn't need to stay at that major high, but I prefer to leave this trade stopped out here rather than close it, because there are still several long positions open, even though they've reduced considerably in size as well, there are still long positions open in Ethereum, there are still long positions open in Solana. Look, look at the entry points, look where I entered, how I entered this trade here in Solana, right? I entered down there at 78. Soon it might be time to reposition this long position, putting a little more money into this trade to push the price up a bit and bring it here, maybe even moving the stop loss here. Uh, I'm not going to do that now. If we do a pullback, then drop a little more, that's what I do. He'll be around 88 or maybe close to 85. That's how I see the future shaping things. But it's just another trade here. 250 already completed with another 87 still open. Etheréum has 3 completed, with 106 more open. There's this piece of crap here from Rave that was a trade and ended up paying $600. He ended up paying 600 and I didn't even see it. I ended up forgetting to place the take profit orders. I set up the trade while I was in the middle of a live stream. We came in here, the price did this, it went from 0.6 to 2.66. So yesterday he ended up paying 600, I couldn't complete the transaction and I left some random orders lying around, and we'll see if they go through, but anyway, it's a pretty small trade. And Zeca, this one's new, right? We set this up in the last live session with the traders, and it's starting to pay out here now, look, 43. If I want to cancel these orders, move this stop here and take a partial profit, I remove the risk from the position. But I don't think I'm going to do that, okay? I'll leave it as it is. I'm just going to put a small, partial achievement here. Or sorry, I'll add a small, partial completion when I get to that little order block here, okay?
Which will result in 45% profit realization. If we hit this price, then I'll definitely cancel those substop orders. For now, I'll leave it like this, okay?
So, we don't like to boast too much about our success rate, especially because we don't believe that the success rate says anything about your operations. We talk a lot about making good trades, right? Because if you work with a very good risk-reward ratio for a trader, then you don't need to be right all the time to succeed, okay? Well, what's been happening is that lately, especially with these three SDT games, we've been getting it right a lot, man, a lot, a lot, a lot, a lot, a lot. No, mainly no, because in the opposite case we're also having fun, right? But overall, we've been dominating all the market movements well, and that's what's most important, okay? So that was a brief introduction, and right after that we'll do the analysis. Beauty?
Let's take a look at the comments here.
Thank you so much to everyone who's arriving now, folks. That's enough, leave a like, okay? Give some support to Chaka's channel, and to Maroja's channel.
Keep getting stronger, keep putting your finger in the channel, see? Okay, it's really slow here. When I click to open the comment here, it takes a long time to load. That's why I thought the internet was bad.
Wow, I saw it first today! Ha, like number one. We're in this together, Cris. Thank you, dear! Oh, I can't change the comment. It's really bad, man.
You're in great shape, Marja! Chaga really outdid himself with this one.
He helps me from time to time; he doesn't just hurt me, right? Damn it. Aoba speaks R, intern. Cris, this chat is for me alone. I'll take care of things here. Owner and proprietor of the chat. That's good. Greetings, traders!
Good morning everyone. That's right, we're in this together, Mats. Kick Tradeiro, good morning. We're all together, K.
Josefina Maçango, greetings to the trader, greetings to Maroja. Let's go! Flávio 884, good morning everyone. Hit that like button. We're in this together, Ramon, good morning traders. Let's go for another round of trading. We're in this together, Ramon Faro Trader, good afternoon, Trader family, we're in this together.
React Crypto, good morning. Good morning, we're in this together. Greetings, traders! R Fagim, Marcelo Peécora, greetings to Maroja, Márcia Magalhães 44, good morning everyone. Paulo, a big belated hug to you for turning thirty. Thank you very much, Marcia. We're in this together, you know, darling.
Eduardo Santos, Traders Forever.
Maroja, to get into trading, how many hours of study does someone who doesn't know much need? per day and for how long are you interested? No, actually, for those who don't know much, you have a great deal of support from the diver, who handles the leveling process today. So, it's specifically designed to reach people who are more inexperienced in the market, who don't have much understanding of operational technical analysis, derivatives, and everything else. Then he takes your hand and starts teaching you the concepts slowly, okay? That's something very important. Hey, just a moment, okay? Because I'm finishing this message here, I was wondering if it might be important.
Well, Eduardo, the question of how many hours a day you have is a very personal one, right? Because there are all kinds of people who joined the trades, for example, we have cardiologists, we have intensivists, who are those guys who do those crazy shifts and attend to emergencies, and so on, who have very little free time available, but then, for example, if they had 3 free hours in a day, they would set aside 1 hour or 1.5 hours of those 3 free hours to study, and the other 1.5 hours to give attention to their family, wife, whatever. Well, because the guy really had a very short time and he really wanted to make it happen. Now, of course, there are people who have more free time available and will be able to dedicate more time to it. It will depend a lot on something that makes you... you also can't be too eager, because otherwise you end up getting tired during the studying phase, right?
You end up going like this, sometimes you study so much, so much, so much, that after a few hours you can no longer internalize some of those concepts.
So you have to understand what is healthy for you and what your routine is like. But I think it's important that you spend more than an hour, maybe an hour and a half a day studying, because otherwise it becomes too short a time for such a vast amount of content. Unless you say, "No, I'm really going to do this little by little, I'm going to spend 2 or 3 years studying, because then, fine, because today, if we take the number of class hours there, it must be more than 90 hours of classes in the course. I'm only talking about, right, taking away the live sessions, everything else, the mentoring, because then it will exceed 300, 400. No, if we talk about live sessions, then it will exceed 1000 hours, right? But if I only talk about targeted mentoring, uh, leveling mentoring, the recorded part, the didactic guidance, and the part of the classes, it will easily exceed 130, 140 hours. And then you study 1 hour, 1 hour a day, right? Uh, then you figure out how many days you'll need to get there. We're talking about 140 days, but in reality, it's not like that, because you also have to practice.
So no It's just one hour studying, one hour studying, one hour practicing, one hour looking at the market and analyzing, testing portfolios. So it will take much longer than that. That's why I say a year and a half, two years, right? If you have very little time. Now, if you have more availability, you can start to understand the concepts and put them into practice much faster than that, okay? It doesn't mean you'll master it. To master it will take longer, but anyway.
Good morning, family. Hey, André. Eduardo Santos. It's like college, but with many nuances. Oh, yes. She's answering Márcia. It's like college, but with many nuances.
Exactly. Sensational cover. We're together, crazy. I also liked it a lot.
He made three covers. Very cool, Ch.
I really liked these next three, man. Mar, today Tom Cruz from the movie Days of Thunder is appearing. Days of Thunder. Days of Thunder isn't the one that's a comedy.
Oh, no, no, No, no. Days of Thunder.
No, I'm confusing it with the Ben Stiller movie, which is Tropical Thunder, right?
Which is [ __ ] crazy. Days of Thunder. Let me see what movie that is. Have you guys seen that movie, man, with Ben Steeler, which is Ben Steeler.
Yeah, damn, it's a great cast. I think Jack Black is in it too. Yeah, Jack Black is in it too. It's a great cast. It's, it's [ __ ] idiotic, the movie Days of Thunder. Oh, man, I've never seen that movie, man. Never seen it. Cool. I'll check it out later. The name of that movie, man, very Tropical Thunder style, right? Tropic Thunder. That's right, man. Have you guys seen that movie, man?
That movie is crap, but really funny crap, man. Robert Downey Jr. plays a black guy, man. They did his makeup. Damn, man, what a funny movie, dude. What a funny movie. I I laughed so hard at this crap.
Who's seen this?
Watch it later, okay? For those who haven't seen this movie, it's really good, man. Totally politically incorrect. I do n't think they could make this movie anymore.
Oh, I like it.
Marge is showing up today. Ah, yes. I already read it, Pacheco. Júlio César, good morning.
Amaral from the Tradeiros family, we're together, Júlio César. YouTube is giving away free affiliate membership this month. Let's take advantage and help Lazinho.
Click on "become a member" and check it out. Damn.
So, Flávio, I saw that you posted this, man, that it's still working like that. Can someone check it out? Guys, it seems that YouTube is sponsoring you for a month or however many days of free membership, up to the third plan, which is the one for R$30 and something. So take advantage, man, because they're covering it and you only start paying next month and... When you're in the members' club, you're helping Lazinho, okay everyone?
Good afternoon to all. Hey Fábio. How's it going?
Kick Trader like, like, like. Maria Pereira, hello, good afternoon. Like already given. We're together, Maria. Gustavo Vinícius Hosty, greetings Maroja, greetings to all traders, good morning. Hey Mateus Eduardo Santos, thanks for the feedback, Márcia, I'll pay more attention to the new openings, I'm really interested in learning. We should release more openings by next week at the latest, okay? So, whoever wants to sign up for the waiting list, sign up because by next week... I don't know if you'd be called immediately in this first call, but I would take the opportunity to include you, okay?
He arrived dominating the scene, a united community and always well-informed.
Exactly. That's our motto. In the middle of the tornado, a like is given. Wow, the guy is a poet. Hey Vivi Cato, good morning. Master Maroj and family of traders. Lazinho sent R$ 30 there. For Lazinho. Thank you so much, Viv! Thank you so much, my dear, from the bottom of my heart. Thank you so much for your support every day. Vivi, we've met some really fine people, she and her husband.
Nothing to do with it. Good afternoon, greetings from Ireland. Good morning. Greetings, traders.
Hey Cléber, hey Akira investor.
Good morning everyone, we're together, investor Rex. Mateus Reis from Bão.
As Chac would say? This is some serious weed.
Yes.
In the middle of the tornado, it's likes galore. Really, man, that's some serious weed. Good morning.
Like 61. Worse than here, it's almost a tornado, you know? With so many storms here, it's crazy. Mateus Reis says: "Let's go, traders, two guaranteed likes."
We're in this together. Greetings, traders!
Hey, Toothless. A blessed Thursday to all traders. We're in this together, Toothless. And, as usual, Lisa Santos. Banguela, I'm going to get that saint—I'll tell you where, but I'm going to shove it in the right place. There's an audio track for funk music that I don't understand how I could like. Ah, that's the one. I hear you too, dear. We're in this together. Your Santos team did well yesterday, they did well yesterday.
Cryptoman, good morning, traders. Father of Luía, hail, hail. Good morning. Good morning.
Greetings, traders! We're in this together, my dear. Thiago Gomes, good afternoon, March.
Hey Mateus R, how's it going? That's great, is it okay? Hey Margo, it's perfect. Okay, great. Audio and video OK, another donation has arrived. Márcio Pinto, good morning. Anubis Itac, good afternoon everyone. Greetings, Marojita!
Rancai speaks. Okay, Dad. Paulo Winkler R$ 10.
Greetings Lazinho. Good morning, Marogja. Good morning, friends. We're with you, Paulo. We're in this together, my friend. Thank you very much for your donation. It's OK. Give us a fair exchange. I'm giving you this valuable content, and you're giving me a like so this live stream can be recorded. Goal: 450. Guys, if you haven't liked this video yet, go ahead and click here! It doesn't cost anything, okay? It costs nothing to ensure the live stream is recorded at the end. I mean, actually, I'm not really meeting the 450 likes goal, because engagement in the crypto market across all channels has dropped a lot, right? So, Shakira, I actually believe he should be able to achieve it more easily. His live streams are very long, but since my live streams are shorter, it's difficult for us to achieve that. So what I'm trying to do here is damage control, right? Because the algorithm doesn't understand that the market is in a moment where there isn't much interest, right? We're not at an all- time high. So, the algorithm doesn't understand; it just thinks the channel is performing poorly, but the truth is that it's a market moment that doesn't bring in as many viewers, right? So, if you can help, it's extremely important right now, more than ever. For those who aren't subscribed to the channel, please subscribe. I saw that we were six subscribers away from hitting 18,500, but we're at 18,400 on time, right? So, you can deduce that, some time ago, we were gaining 200 or 300 subscribers every month.
But that's it. Look how awesome! Most people think that building a trade is just about buying more, without a goal, without technique, without management.
These tips are worth their weight in gold. We're in this together, Flávio. The Diver is a gentleman. Good morning, Maroja. Let's get rid of the sardines. Good one, Chico Rico. B works magic to teach us there. Leveling is too good to be true. Hey there, folks. This is for the friend who asked the question. That's it.
Good morning, Marri Tradeiros. Trão topicar uma maluquí do caralho. But it's cool, man.
That movie is really good, man.
War is fantastic. Jack Black, Robert Downey Jr., and others. Exactly. It is very good. This one is top-notch. Good movies to detox from today's world.
Exactly. There's a little smart one today, Marojaço. Yes, bro. For sure. I'm signing up here now, Maroja.
Thank you very much for the explanation. We're in this together, Eduardo.
Good afternoon here. Hey, Marquinho UK. We're in this together, my dear. Kakak, what's this, traders?
Good morning, master. Greetings, lazy traders, always. Thank you very much, Ripn Red. R$ 10. We're in this together, you know, dear Mar? I'm already missing your analogies in the live streams. The last one was from the neighbor's miniature pinscher.
Yes, I am, I am, I am failing in that area. I've never been that creative again, no. But for those who don't know, a while back I was using some analogies to try and explain some market dynamics, but the chakra is what really does that very well, right?
My analogies are the worst in the world, it's impossible to get any worse than the ones I make, because they're really, really bad, okay?
So, uh, I did one there that was absurd, and it ended up catching on for a while, which I said was that many times when the market was in a certain position, when things were dangerous, the book would become very persuasive, it would start showing you, "Wow, this looks like it's going to crash, right?" This was the equivalent of what, right? This here was equivalent to a pinch that belongs to your neighbor. You have a neighbor who has a miniature pinscher, you even think it's cute, but every time you try to pet it, it bites you, right?
And it bites you, doesn't it?
And every time you saw this, you insisted that you didn't want to short, that you didn't want to sell, that you didn't want to realize a profit. And that was the pinscher.
You knew he was going to bite you, but you still tried again because you thought, "No, this thing is so cute that I'm going to touch it, I'm going to stroke it, I'm going to give it a little caress." And then he would bite you there, right? And it would stay like that, your little finger would bleed and stuff. He said, "Damn it, my brother, for God's sake."
Similarly, when the market was like this, you knew this was a good opportunity, but you were too lazy to act because you thought you'd have a better opportunity. And this opportunity, in the analogy I made, was like an old lady who liked you very much, you were a teenager and the old lady was from the neighborhood and she comes here, my son, I want to give you R$ 5.
And then you say: "Ah, I will, I'll go there another day." But the old lady, she's going to die someday, right? She's already at the end of her life. So it could be that if you don't go there and take advantage of each of those opportunities she's giving you, right? And sometimes there were great opportunities. You'd get there, you'd let it pass, and she wanted to give you a PlayStation, you know? She wanted to give you a PlayStation, but you kept passing by, and then another brand new one would come by and you'd get the old lady's PlayStation. Did you understand?
So that was the analogy of the old woman and the pinscher. It was the worst analogy in the history of the internet. And this, incredibly enough, is so bad that it caught on, right?
Because you guys really like garbage, you really like bad content, trashy content. And that's what we produce here, right?
extremely poor quality content.
And that's it. It 's not just the critical segment that's suffering from low engagement on YouTube; practically all segments are, as the world is adapting to new communication tools. Oh, it definitely has an influence, right?
New networks are joining, younger audiences are also moving to TikTok, things like that.
But the fact is that overall it's a bad time for the crypto market. Well, there are channels you see that are from other segments that have had a much smaller impact on the global drop in YouTube views. We're talking about a 20%, 15% drop in global views, while in the crypto sector we're seeing drops of up to 70%, 80%, depending on the channel.
So, uh, overall we've been sustaining this pretty well, because in a live stream like today's, 175 viewers is really high, but in general we're talking about doing live streams for 250, 280 people, whereas we normally did them for 500, 600, right? So we're talking about around 50%, which is something we've already seen happening in 2021. In 2021 we didn't have a channel, but I had been following the crypto market for a while and I saw the drops when we went through that drop that resulted in the bottom of the 2022 market. So this is cyclical, it's part of the market, right? It's part of the market. Alright, everyone. So, let's go.
You guys left a like there. Let me see.
There are 180 people watching here. Let me see how many likes you guys left there.
155. Let's beat this one-on-one, folks. 180 likes there. And so I'll begin here with the analysis of BTC. What do you say? I think that's fair, don't you? I think that's fair.
We like proper content. Yes.
If we hit a bottom of 77,600, 77,600, 77,600.
Oh, you said we'd fall further, right?
What would be the best analogy for this situation?
Oh, sis, I have to think of something that's on the same level as the old lady and the pitch, but I'll think about it a little more.
The admin posted a video about banning the future; it's about banning the future on Bibbit. He speaks somewhat well. No, I didn't get around to watching the admin's video about it, but I saw that several people posted about it, right? And most of the content they're creating—I'm not referring specifically to the admin because, as I said, I didn't get to watch the video—but a large part of what's being said isn't entirely correct, okay?
Well, I say this with authority because I spoke with our account manager at Bibbit, who, coincidentally, is here in João Pessoa, which is my city, the city where I live.
And we have a very close relationship, of course, we've been at Bibbit for many, many years, and then we went out to lunch, and it just so happened that that middle part arrived, right? And then I even made a post in the announcements section. First, I sent an audio message here explaining the content that was in the body of the email and everything else, explaining that I was going to meet with Vini on this day, the 12th, which was the day before yesterday, and we went out to lunch. And then I made this post here explaining all the points regarding what's happening at Bybit, right?
And if you look here, it's really a very, very, very technical summary of how this transition is going to happen. And no, BBIT is not stopping, and will not stop offering 100%. Well, I'm just passing on the information that was given to me, okay? I 'm not speaking as a spokesperson for Bybit, nor am I making an official statement.
I'm just saying what I discussed with the people from Stef at BBIT, okay? The process that occurs today, for example, which we have at UKX, where there is a global account, which is the El Salvador account and the national account, is the same process that Bibbit will do. Well, basically, I sent this here, folks, to clarify things after the meeting we just had with our account manager from Bybit. In summary, overall, nothing has changed so far.
Sorry. The email had a deadline of June 24th, which would be next month, right? And that deadline of June 24th, in fact, he was referring to the first mandatory steps within a transition process from an international to a national brokerage firm and for opening a global account. And this first step, which is mandatory until June 24th, is the Level 1 KYC verification, where you do facial recognition and you don't need to provide an address. And Level 2 KYC is the one that asks for the address, right, the proof of residence. So, by June 24th, the first regulatory changes will take place, which will be what? Simply put, instead of KYC1 being mandatory for you to operate, you will need KYC2, okay? I think that's the point that hasn't been operational for a while now; it certainly must have K2, but the Bibbit migration process will only happen in September, OK? What I was told is that the immigration process from BBIT to BBIT national will only take place in September, and on July 20th, BBIT will have Bybit Global, which will have exactly the same framework, the same line of reasoning as the previous one in dividing operations between a national operation, meaning the brokerage will need to have a CNPJ in Brazil, and another operation, which is the international operation. Now, in this international operation, what is done there is not declared. What is being declared is that at the moment you make the transaction, converting it to BRL, this will most likely only happen within the national unit, right?
So, be very careful about what you're reading out there so you don't act impulsively on some guy trying to sell you his affiliate code, you know? And this is a very delicate business, because what I saw today was a lot of people selling cold portfolios, people selling affiliate codes at back-alley brokerages, brokerages that aren't even in the top 10, you know? Be very careful not to fall into a trap where you withdraw money from a brokerage that is supposedly safe, right? Sure, we have a strong partnership with OKX today, because one of the main reasons I saw a great advantage in starting this partnership with UKEX is that they have a simply sensational ecosystem and were very ready for this change in behavior regarding regulation in Brazil.
So when they created this operation that divides the national UKEX, where you can benefit from a tax exemption of R$35,000 per month, and the global OKX, that was something that, damn, is very interesting. And the fact that they chose El Salvador, a country they've made very clear they don't agree with regarding CARF (Administrative Council for Tax Appeals), which will involve the exchange of information between countries, etc., strongly reinforces the consortium they're part of in this work, you understand? But that doesn't mean, oops, OKX is the salvation of the world and Bybit is finished. That doesn't exist. These are two fantastic brokers, and it's much better than putting your money with some backwater brokerage that promises everything to all sorts of influencers but ends up not delivering much in terms of security for the end user. So, be very careful with terrorism and see if, when these guys are making this type of announcement, they aren't trying to sell something else along with it. Because if he's trying to sell an affiliate code from another brokerage, if he 's trying to sell a cold portfolio, he's not just trying to communicate, he's trying to sell you something. That's right. Hey Marja, how's it going? But what about past transactions? I mean, as soon as the individual opened the account at BB, they will report it to Leon. Oh man, most likely not, right? I can't say for sure, but most likely not. That won't have retroactive effect. That's what will most likely happen from now on.
And of course, folks, any changes that occur within these timeframes that I've given you here, which are the ones that were given to me, right? Well, that's clear, this is within an informal conversation, but it's someone pulling the information from within the bybit. So, if there's one thing I can tell you firsthand here, it's this kind of information that I'm bringing you. So, everything's here, okay? I posted ads there, traders.
Anyway, that's it.
But how do brokers view these strategies that they are using to pretend to be global in order to circumvent the system? Because I'm sure the government will target that too, man. That's because it's a process that's done in stages, right? So, this could be a measure we use to keep the market stable for a few more years under the conditions we are operating under today. But I think it's very difficult for them to undermine, like, Brazilian access to derivatives, because if they wanted to, they would have already blocked it, they would have issued stop-loss orders to all those brokers a long time ago. So, it's a business where, like, derivatives aren't authorized for Brazilians, but who in Brazil doesn't trade derivatives? Therefore, it's very, very, very rare to see people just from the spot. Typically, it's those people who buy them to roll them and then say goodbye, right?
Anyone who is protecting themselves in the market, who is doing something a little more professional, even if they 're not a professional, right? It utilizes the derivatives market. That's simply what the CVM (Brazilian Securities and Exchange Commission) knows, man, that when you change the language of the brokerage firm, you have access to the derivatives product. So they won't be able to undermine it, because if they leave a 100% Brazilian operation, it would no longer be possible to offer derivatives. I even believe in a process that they will go through, that's my opinion, okay? It's not based on any facts, it's my opinion. What do I believe in? That at the moment it becomes mandatory for these operations to be truly national, that is, 100% Brazilian, and derivatives are authorized here, you understand? And it shouldn't be something tied to a B3 (Brazilian stock exchange), for example, but something authorized by those brokerage firms, because they are huge industries that move a lot of capital in Brazil today. So, uh, well, that's it, folks.
Just leave Brazil and that's it, you don't need to worry about it anymore.
Yeah, that's part of it too, right? We're really in a constant state of war here, trying to understand our legal, accounting, and other security aspects. And it's complicated, man. Brazil is a no-man's-land, you know how it is, right? But anyway, there's always a Brazilian way of doing things, and it's always been that way.
So this is something, this regulation of the crypto market is something that has been postponed for years and years and years. So they see it being adjusted little by little.
Yeah, and that's how it happens.
Very good. And it made him feel more at ease. Go figure. Wheat germ is possible. Little Tiger can. No future. Exactly.
I also think it makes absolutely no sense. I arrived and already left a like. The bad thing is, thank you, Eesoid? The downside is that to make the change, we'll need to close all existing operations. It could be bad.
Ah, man, it's for migrating any capital, like, so you can go to Bybit's global account when that structure is ready, which they said will be ready by July 20th, uh, you'll most likely have to close your operations. But like this, I don't see it as the end of the world, because if your trades are profitable, if you've been holding onto them for a while, it's because they're profitable trades. So you reset the game, the market still has a long way to go, man. There's absolutely no problem. If they're in reverse positions, right, which are reverse positions, then it really doesn't make any difference. Whether you close now, close later, increase your position, it makes no difference.
Here in Italy, almost all brokers prohibit trading in the futures market. I operate on MEXC, and only they still can. Bitgat can do that too, okay?
Bitgat can do that too. Actually, I think Bitget is a better brokerage than Maxi.
I think it's a better-structured brokerage firm.
MEX has already gone through some more serious problems.
Yeah, she went through a big problem in 2024, if I'm not mistaken. I don't even remember exactly what it's about. Is there a problem? I don't remember. I might end up saying something stupid here, but I don't, I don't, I don't like these full non- KYC brokers. I think it's a very large appeal and that there isn't much legal certainty in that transaction. I'm very afraid to put my money in a brokerage like that. Bitgat, for example, is a QIC-certified broker, but it authorizes its users to operate in Europe, right? Now this is kind of crazy. I've already closed everything down, even at a loss. Oh, that's what I think is a problem. You read a news story, you act on emotion. This cannot be done at any point in the market, understand?
So, it's not wrong to close a position at a loss. To me, it's like you should have stopped this a long time ago, I don't know the exact context, right? But if you 're saying, "I closed positions at a loss," it's because you've been carrying a loss for a long time, so you were trading without a stop-loss order. That doesn't exist, that's totally wrong. But what I also think is wrong is reading news like this and then acting on emotion and clicking the button. That doesn't exist, man, for someone who wants to operate in the financial market. And you always have to act through reason and not emotion. Wait for the dust to settle, try to understand a little better about it. We posted announcements here explaining this issue very clearly. I met with the guy, sat down for lunch, and we understood all the nuances about what's happening.
So, calm down. Even in the email that Bibbit sent, the first one, the only deadline it mentions is June 24th. And if you read what will change on June 24th, it's just that you'll need to use KC2. So, it won't be blocking your operation, stopping the offering of futures today. For tomorrow. And if it happened that they blocked futures trading from today to tomorrow, you could close your positions and withdraw the money from the brokerage after that. Damn, the brokerage is no longer useful to me, you understand?
So, be careful. This sense of urgency that is brought about by certain news cannot be treated this way. You have to be careful, you have to investigate and make the most plausible decisions.
What do I think is a plausible decision? It's to prepare an account with another brokerage that is better positioned in this regard, such as OKX. But you don't need to abandon your Novit operation, do things calmly, read, understand the deadlines, find out everything properly, you understand? Uh, uh, be very careful, be very careful with these clickbait stories, folks, because sometimes it's scaremongering, it's like I said, to sell a product. So, if it 's to sell a product, then that news doesn't carry a degree of seriousness, you understand? Be very careful with that.
That's the mess that other influencers cause. Okay. They make a whole fuss to scare others who, due to inexperience, act in a totally emotional way. That's it. It's standard practice in the crypto market, right? Appealing, YouTube, anyway, I think that's ridiculous, man. It's always been something we've tried to avoid all the time. We can lose engagement because of that. We may not be the most watched channel in Brazil, damn, we're very far from that, but I prefer to build it brick by brick. Both Chaco and I think that way rather than trying to leverage our growth through practices that will harm people.
But anyway, guys, sorry, we ended up going on for too long here, but I think it's an important topic to talk about. But let's go to the BTC analysis, okay? Let's go to the BTC analysis. If you haven't liked it, leave a like, guys. And remember, we're six people away from reaching 18,500. It may not be much, it may, but the way the market is... Walking around here, I don't even know if we'll reach that point. Let's see.
Let me check here. We're missing five people, actually, five people. Someone signed up, so we're missing five people.
If we could get to the end of the live stream, it would be wonderful.
But anyway, let's get to the BTC analysis. Wow, damn, it hit hard here, you know? Great, fantastic.
So let's go, folks. I think the first thing worth mentioning and discussing is, well, ZC is already pulling here, paying 88, but I'm going to follow the plan I had outlined with you and I'm going to leave the profit taking here at 569.02, okay? Uh, not a total take, a partial take, of 3.46, and since I have it open here, I'm going to take one, it will remain open at 2.46 in the position, okay? Now, with this show of strength, I can even cancel those other orders I had left and raise this stop here, okay? I think that's even better. I'll even cancel this stop here and set it as a stop close.
Done.
I don't think it's wrong for them to resort to clickbait, especially with the numbers plummeting because of the market crash. Nobody's dying or being robbed. After all, there are situations and situations, but what we see as a common practice in Brazil is someone trying to sell you a product based on something alarming, something that causes panic. This can even, as the guy said, involve closing all losing trades, you know? The panic that this causes in a person, you take away the reason, you take away the rationality of someone who's been in the market for a short time, who doesn't have good practices, who doesn't have good habits, sees a trigger like this that 's caused by the panic generated in the market, and they go there and make a decision that wouldn't necessarily be the decision they would make if they were calm, if they were composed. So I do think that's wrong, okay? I think that's wrong.
But anyway, if it's clickbait to bring you to... Relevant, cool content that will inform you and not necessarily try to sell you something, and I don't see that as a negative thing. Okay? But anyway, let's go, everyone. Uh, let me show you, first of all, a little bit of the context of the 24-hour portfolio, okay?
In the last live stream, we got close to 50% red, right? Look, 48.97% red. Did it get more than that? No, no.
We reached 49% red in the portfolio, see, protected percentage, 48.97. So, we reached almost 50% total protection in the portfolio, that is, the portfolio was really very protected. This was on May 10th at 8:17 AM. May 10th at 8:17 AM.
Look here. It was basically at the top, we were reaching the highest level of portfolio protection.
Look, at 8:17 AM I said... It wasn't May 10th. So it was at this peak here. We formed that first pivot. I showed you exactly how I would operate this. So I left the orders according to what I showed you, okay? Practicing here what we talk about so much, which is that the selling strategy is to generate urgency. How the other party will react is irrelevant. Irrelevant to you, because when we're dealing with the financial market, we're dealing with people's money, with people's livelihoods. That's relevant to you, but not to us. Okay? That's your opinion, man. That's your opinion.
Anyway. I left the orders here according to what was done, right, according to what was created. Uh, in the last live stream here, I left the orders at this upper level to short against the high, with a stop loss, with the invalidation above the high, it triggered the orders here, we weren't stopped out, and we did a rotation. At the moment that We did this rotation and came back here to 78,600, 600 this morning.
Note that our protection percentage went from 49% to 39.62%, meaning I bought 10% of the total capital during that small 4% market drop.
Okay? A 4% market drop was enough for me to realize 10%.
Why? Because the market was giving us, is giving us a context of sideways movement, at least for now, or perhaps something very, well, I see these two possibilities here in bullish terms, right? Either we're looking at a huge ABC pattern.
Not huge, this is a small range, but anyway, an ABC pattern like this, right?
Which ends up resulting in an immediate upside, or we're looking at something a little more like this, right? Oops, sorry. Or we 're looking at something more, damn it. Or we're looking at this, as I said, this was one, two, we're Breaking upwards. Or we 're within some longer pattern, with an extensive lateral triangulation here.
ABCA, ABCB, ABCD, ABC, oh, sorry, ABCA, ABCB, ABC, ABCD, AC, and then we break upwards. So, it may take a while to resolve, especially since we 're in a sideways pattern here, at least for now, which has reached some interesting targets, but we haven't necessarily broken any structure yet.
So, nothing guarantees that this breakout will necessarily occur now. So, for example, from this reversal we're having here now, let me see how much the portfolio is reaching at this moment.
We're almost reaching 54,000,000, right? 53,800 at this moment. And I judge, folks, although I haven't placed any orders here that are worthwhile, considering that we bought a lot, I bought at market, we went below, we We caught it there, and we ended up reducing our protection level by 10%. I think it makes sense for me to go back to around 43%, or 44% protection now. So I'm going to short 750 here, okay? I'm going to short 1750 here. Let's go to 22,750,000 in red protection.
22,750 divided by 53,800 results in 42.2% of the portfolio protected.
So it starts working earlier. If we go a little higher and get close to those 81, I'll go and short another 100, something close to that, because I'll get close to those 45%, 46% I was mentioning. I won't go back to being almost 50% shorted, 50% netted, but I'll still be working with numbers where I'm selling, buying, selling, buying, selling. If it breaks, it hits my stop. And then I'll focus on just shorting higher, consolidating more dollars there. In my wallet. Okay?
This Peter Pan only shows up to stir up controversy. Keep your opinions to yourself, my dear. No, he comes here and says controversial things.
He knows he'll anger the group, then he goes to Dr. Crypto and calls us ignorant and intolerant too. No, man, I'm not going to ban anyone. He gave his opinion, but I think that opinion goes totally against everything we value here.
Because when you say that at some point, whether you like it or not, this will happen, right? That is, the person will lose their capital, that 's not true. Because if a person starts studying before making a decision like that, which compromises their capital due to impulsiveness, etc., they start studying a methodology that makes sense, that they can actually understand, they understand how market dynamics work, they are more shielded against something like that. So the timing, our mission is to try to pass on information. The right approach for people is to use clickbait, and you don't necessarily need it. It might even be a clever tactic you use to deliver valuable content, but using clickbait to create panic in someone over something that isn't even concrete, that's wrong.
That's simply wrong, you understand?
How can you sponsor someone's loss, their impulsiveness, their panic just to sell your product? Man, that 's totally wrong, dude. You ca n't say that's right, man. That's wrong, man. That doesn't exist, man.
Say that, man. For God's sake. Okay, man.
It's just your opinion. I didn't offend anyone. It's fine. You didn't offend me. I just think your opinion is [ __ ]. That's all, man. That's all.
And it's because of opinions like yours that the crypto market is the way it is today in terms of content creation.
ABC in regular flat. Perfect targets with wave B at 89 and wave C at... Diagonal at 1 2 36. Perfect. Yes, it would be, it would basically be this line here, right? It could even be a WXY, right? I think it looks even better. Ah, although a diagonal would fit here, right?
Or not. Let me see here. It 's not because it looks bad with a diagonal here. I think I'd even prefer to say that this is a wxy, right? I could put it as wxy 3, 3 and 5. Uh, oh, sorry, 3, 3 and 3.
5 3 5.
Actually, it could be w X Y and in Y be another WXY, right? Like this, see. Let me just practice here, okay, guys?
Just so you understand, because in the end this isn't very relevant. It's how we're going to get to this here, see. But, look, W, X, Y, adjust the degree here, right? Of course. If there we're looking at a submicro degree, here we're looking at a Okay, sorry, if we're looking at a tiny degree, here we're looking at a submicro degree, okay?
And internally I have a tiny degree.
A, here, look, it comes to the tiny degree.
1 2 3 4 5 A B, sorry.
A B C X And here's another one, a Wxy, an internal W X Y.
OK.
3 3 C ab wxy W XY 2. I think that, in terms of resolution, if we go to this ultra-technical part, this would be the best way to summarize this corrective pattern here as finished, right?
We're going to something that's talking about this. Uh, in the last live stream I did with the traders, I was precisely saying that it would be ideal for this to be 1, that we would go a little lower, that we wouldn't have finished here, because it was 382, that it would be at least between 05 and 8. It ended up that we touched 05 and reacted. Here is a rather interesting reaction. Now it's like I He said, from the bottom, guys, we already have a 3.11% increase here, so what makes sense? It makes sense for me to start taking at least part of that profit. So, that's why I'm going to increase my protection level a little. The average price of my R is going up, and then I can worry about rebuying, removing that stop loss, and keeping it that way.
Okay.
Damn, gargling is tough, man. And this is the first live stream of the day.
Anyway, let's continue with the analysis, okay? Yeah, we've already shorted the market a little bit. Let's see how things boil down now.
So, firstly, going back to the long term, what I always like to contextualize for you from time to time is the long-term count. It boils down to saying that BTC formed a 1/2 pattern, if I take a larger chart, like an index, you'll see that there's another 1/2 pattern here, because here I have a cycle, but before that there's still a So, on the surface, there's a 1 of 1 of... And the big challenge is understanding what this movement from the bottom to this high represents, right? Could this be another wave pattern that's forming? Because if you notice, these two waves, right, that we have are basically the wave market patterns that people always mention, it's a year falling, that's it, this wave market is formed, always forming these two waves. No, in my opinion, we've never formed a major wave three, because it makes sense, given how new the asset is, that it takes longer for it to reach a peak of a wave 3 of a high time frame, like a primary wave 3 or a cycle wave 3, for example, right? I think that would take more years. So, what I believed was that we might already be forming a wave 3 here for the first time directly, right? Which could take us to levels of at least some... 250,000. It turned out that we started this corrective process earlier. And the correction, the alternative count, I don't know, since a year and a half, two years ago, is that either we were forming this three directly or we are forming another one, a two. But I continue to believe that breaking the pattern of this correction of a year, etc., would be ideal, right, to remove old habits from the market, even due to a change in the pattern of investors who are participating in the market. And then with that, it generates doubt about which of the two patterns we have here, which are these two long-term patterns, right? One of them says that the correction, in fact, has already ended and that all this rise that was formed through a wave 1 2 3 4 5, we formed wave one and this correction, in fact, was a sideways correction.
So the market peak at 126,000 is actually not a wave C, it's a wave B.
This is what happens when we have expanding flat patterns, which is basically when We have an aura of three, three, and five waves falling. So A, B, and C, wave two. And then we have here, look, 1, 2. I'm looking for this three to a four and finally a five. Uh, all of this here will form another 1/2 pattern. So, when we find this top here, many people will say: "Oops, we finished wave B, let's go straight down to wave C." But in reality, if the market falls in a three-wave structure, understand that you will actually be having the last great buying opportunity that the market will be giving you before a move to a new all-time high, before a renewal of the all-time high. This, right, which should happen within a few months, if this count is correct, of course, would be the biggest opportunity you would have to buy BTC in a place that makes a lot of sense, in fact.
So, what may have happened here is the completion of this corrective pattern and that all of this here is one, two, we are coming here towards a Wave three. I would say that, as I've said several times, we 're in the zone of truth, because this is something I've been showing you for a while now : this zone up to 83,000, 84,000 is the target zone for a one-to-one comparison.
Oh, sorry, my headphones died from inactivity. They don't listen to anything. Then after an hour they turn off, but I have to download a program to change this setting. There's no way to change it manually. But anyway, we're in the zone of truth because the one-to- one pattern, if this isn't a formed bottom, right? This bottom at 60,000 wasn't the major market bottom.
If this is temporary, so that we can fall further, what will happen? It would be a count like this, okay?
Which says that, in fact, the market top was formed at 126,000. If the market top was formed at... 126,000, so in fact, this bottom that we formed was just wave A. Everyone who uses Helium in a somewhat superficial way is believing that this pullback here is from a wave B, which isn't wrong, okay? It's an excellent, extremely technical count. I'm just betting that the market might end up contradicting those who are following the little calendar that the market has always respected. And if it does respect it, in my opinion, it will be the last time this happens, okay? It's what I've been saying for months, that if we were to go to another wave two, it would be the last time I would see this happening, because after that this will already be an intermediate-level wave two, it will start to stretch this 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 12 pattern a lot, making it less likely. So, uh, it would be the last chance for the market to form a wave two and its last chance to enter what is very likely an endless market rally, right?
Uh, so we fall into this five-wave structure. Okay, this could be an ABC. So, instead of seeing this as a two, this could be an ABC. So, we only have two counts, not five, not ten, not fifteen, just two counts. And when I say we 're in the zone of truth, it's because one of them says this was the bottom of the market, so I have to move towards wave three. s, which will be there around 90-something thousand. This will basically confirm that we're building a five-wave structure and that this has gone deep. While the other count indicates that we formed an ABC here, and the most common target for this ABC is one-on-one. It's the book target for AB6 and it's currently at 82,312.
So, if we find one here, and we end up not renewing that high, or renewing it by very little, and then start falling more aggressively, right, without exceeding 84,000, that could be confirmation that we've actually finished this ABC wave and are now going to fall towards a C wave. So, that's why we're in the zone of truth. The boxes here basically indicate that if you start to fall here, you have met the ABC target. That's why it's important for us to stay here where we are. That's why I ended up with 50% of my capital shorted, netted, protected, something that hadn't happened in a long time. Here, I was getting 70-80% invested when we were near these lows. Now the game is starting to change a bit. It doesn't mean I have to be super sold out, no.
That time has not yet come. Because if I compare from the bottom to the top, I have 111%. We're looking at a lens that's established from the highest price to the lowest price. The high is at 126,000, 127,000 and the low is at 60. So I'm still kind of not even halfway there yet, you know? 05 will be a little higher up.
Where is 05 going? Here, 05 will be at 86999 87.000.
But anyway, I'm not so attached to the minimum anymore. So it makes sense that I protect myself more. We 're talking about a 35-36% increase here, and a peak of 38%, right? So, back then the YouTube cover photo said 30 years old, because I turned 30 and BTC had increased by 30%. Soon BTC will be 40 years old. If we renew this maxim, what will make sense? I should start protecting myself gradually, little by little, right? That would make sense. I can't overdo it, I can't, ah, I have to be 100% shortcut. It doesn't make sense, but little by little I have to start working with a more realistic approach to consolidate the profits I've made, because I bought this fund, I bought that other fund, I bought that other fund, I bought all of these funds. Guys, let me zoom in here because I think the transmission is a little too far away, right?
So, I bought all those funds.
We bought all of those funds. Those who have been following along here on YouTube saw this live here. Every time I was placing buy orders here, to increase the portfolio's exposure level, as well as at the highs, we always made a point of protecting the capital more, right? But always keeping in mind that the price is still heavily discounted compared to the maximum, so we need to have a more buyer's mindset here. Here I remain bullish.
But with more caution, with my feet on the ground, without blindly believing that the market necessarily needs to break upwards, because now I have at least a minimum ABC target. I reached the minimum target, no, the standard ABC target. This is the most respected target when we're talking about ABC standards. Therefore, I cannot close my eyes to the possibility of a peak forming within this region. Form another peak here, go back, OK, no problem. It's still within acceptable proportions. We even have VioAP anchored at the high, right? The important thing that held the price, forming the price peak here at 96,875, we have the high of the band and we have the upper band of the annual VioAP value area, right? This has also been a super important metric.
Look at the amount of price interaction in the lower bands, in the VUAP itself, right? Look at how many times we formed tops by retesting these regions, and how many times we didn't form bottoms after being accepted within them. So, if you notice how the price interacts with this, it 's the most beautiful thing in the world, right?
Anyone looking at this would say, "No, I can't see anything." So you're a bigobal, my friend. If you can't look at a graph, you 'll never understand it. You're too stupid, my friend. And that. Retest, resistance, retest. And we still haven't interacted with all 84,000. We haven't yet reached 84,000 here, which would be the upper limit of the annual VAP (Value Added Percentage) range. This area is super important for the formation of a possible summit, who knows. So, I ca n't downplay this region here with 84,000 inhabitants. That's true, right? And, as I said, Vioap is anchored. So, here they are, uh, they're both leaning against each other. 83,600 today for the anchored VAP coming from the peak and 84,000 for the VAP, for the upper band of the annual VAP, okay? These are two completely distinct VAPs (Value Added Points), one is anchored to the Alltime High and the other is anchored to the beginning of the year, December 31, 2025, at 9 PM, which is when we turn the page, right, for the American market, which is midnight there, and that's when the year begins here for the financial market, for Bitcoin.
Annual Viup for the last 12 months or for this year?
Yeah, damn, that sucks.
So, like I said, I'm being bullish. I actually prefer to believe, I honestly prefer to believe that we formed a fund and that continues to be my primary consideration. So my primary count remains the one where we formed the bottom here at 60,000, and where we are starting this reversal process. For me, he's still number one, okay? But I have to understand that this is what it would be. But I have to understand that this is powerful too.
This needs to be respected, especially since we're in the place that validates or invalidates this scenario. So, if I'm fixated on invalidating a long-term scenario, I'd have to be crazy to ignore it. I have to be irresponsible. If I'm a trader and I disregard this and stop looking at it, that would be complete ignorance on my part. I cannot act in such a way. I have to act prudently. And this is an area where I need to be a little more careful about protecting myself. That's why I respect the market. He's starting to get close to the highs here, right? Which would invalidate that first peak, which was the perfect one-on- one move. And this is an area I have to cut through. And the note I'm leaving here is a few more orders, which are precisely those two targets, but above that, folks, I believe there's a great possibility that we'll go at least to 89,000, 91,000, which would be the targets for wave 3, okay?
So, we have this first zone, right? The first zone is super important, and then we'll have a second zone that's also extremely, extremely important, right? So, the short-term variants, like the ABCs, right? I think ABC is best justified this way: A, B, and C. And here it's one to one. Yeah, like I said, if we end up renewing here again, it wouldn't be hard for me to justify it with three, four, and the fifth one is right up there, okay?
No, no, it wouldn't have an influence, it wouldn't be a bad count or anything like that, it would still make perfect sense, but it ca n't go beyond these 84,000, 85,000, because then the counts that say we're breaking upwards through an impulsive pattern will start to make much more sense.
So that's it, right? Or, the way it was before, where the top is already formed, I have to respect that, I have to keep shortening it and all that. Okay, now I'll confess to you all, alright? I 'm saying right off the bat that for this to break downwards, in the short term it would have to be a 1 2 1 pattern, which honestly doesn't look very likely. Until we see a detail here where we held on to one-on-one, okay?
That's it again, since I was looking at them one by one upwards, I'm showing you them one by one downwards. So this looks more like a corrective pattern that could still result in an upward breakout. But anyway, something very micro, it's a lot of noise. So it's not ideal for us to use it that way. Ideally, we should look at these patterns of longer timeframes and justify them, understand which are the high- impact zones, of high relevance for counting, which are precisely the regions where we are acting, shortening, implementing invalidations and everything else, okay?
This would be the final ABC pattern. So, in the short term, to justify the bullish patterns, that's what I showed you earlier. I might be inside a triangulation like this, right, to go towards the targets of 90,000, 89,000, as I said, right, which would be through something like this, look, 1 of E here I have a 1 2 3 4 5 to find this wave 3 here, look. Okay? I come for a four, then I come for a five, and so on. Washing away smoke, something like that, okay? That makes sense, quite technical, good counting, nothing out of the ordinary.
Or I could be involved in something a little different, but which would be even more bullish, right? But it's also very similar, man. I formed a one-two here, I formed another one-two, right? Through a one running flat, oh. One. Then I have three, 3 and 5. 1 2 3 4 5 across a diagonal. And here I have one. And all of this here was that little count we were doing at the beginning of the live stream, a little further back from the microphone here, that this could be a w, xy wave, and that here we found a wave two. If this is a wave two, we're starting a wave three up here, we need volume and power in this breakout, which will end up breaking through this region I'm mentioning of holding on here up to 85,000 at most, right? What will likely happen is that these two scenarios here, this one here would be invalidated, right? Because I would need to triangulate for a longer period of time.
But what would justify considering this the strongest base-case scenario for the market? In other words, in the long term, what will have more strength than what we've already achieved is that we're heading towards a wave three, right? I think everything you need to know about Helliot is covered in what I've just shared with you, okay? Now we'll move on to the second part of the analysis, which is the order flow part. But before that, we have here, quickly, I'm not going to surprise you, a short 1 minute 30 second video, talking about Smart Trader, the Trader Plan.
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traderos.com.br. br. Here you can find all the relevant information for those who want to become a trader.
Let me just quickly show you what's being discussed here at Tradeaiders, right? We constantly share any relevant market updates, and how we're going to handle those movements; we're sharing those updates with you here. There are a few different tabs, there's mine here, there's Chaka's, right? Here Chaka is talking about... he's already talking about ATA, right?
He's teaching a class about ATAS, which is a wonderful, really awesome, free order flow software, okay? It's not as intuitive as Exo Charts, it's actually a bit more complex. This is an even more advanced level for the market, which is what AT is all about. And we're starting a new marathon of lots and lots of classes, okay? Furthermore, you have sections here where the community itself, the students from this community, can make posts.
We have here the tabs for 24-hour wallet notifications. Oh, for example, we didn't just short the market a little while ago, and it already shows here that the portfolio's protection percentage, which was 39.62, went up to 42.35. Why? Because I opened a new order for 3.25% in the portfolio, in addition to moving things around here and canceling that stop loss that was down there, right? And there was another one here that was canceled and then moved, which was actually the one I moved a little bit over there. So he notifies here, marks here, everyone can follow both in this portfolio and in the aggressive portfolio that Chaka manages there, okay? Also, you can watch the live stream here, okay? It's not just that notification; there's a 24/7 live stream showing exactly how I'm trading in the market, how Chaka is trading with a different profile. Who is it that does this, putting a wallet on display for you all 24/7? Well, showing exactly everything we're doing, whether the portfolio is making money, whether the portfolio is losing money. This has been shown for quite some time now, right? We have all the stages here where the live streams take place. For those who go in there, there are four to five live streams per week. There are five because there are also leveling mentoring sessions and didactic guidance. Some weeks there are five, some weeks there are six live streams, right? Aside from those times when the market is very volatile, with huge drops, significant highs and lows, we'll go ahead and open an extra live stream, okay? You can count on us. If the market is stagnant, calm, and moving sideways, we end up just following the schedule. If things start to get more panicky, more urgent, we'll open up extra live streams for you in the market, okay? Well, all of this is part of the trading plan, in addition to the course, which is, in my opinion, the best trading course in the world.
It's really bad for me to talk about a product that 's mine, isn't it? No, it's not the best thing, but people attest to it quite a bit.
So here you can see all the modules. Ah, but that's a cost, do you sell it separately? No, this is part of the trader's package. If you pay R$ 275 per month, and that's subject to adjustment, okay everyone? There will be an adjustment very soon. It's impossible to keep maintaining this price level when everything has gone up, the dollar has plummeted. So it 's actually not even R$275 per month if you're paying in crypto, it's coming out to much less than that, man. Until we see this here. I'm curious to see how much that costs.
Well, 45 times 4.98. It's coming to R$225 if you're paying via crypto, 45 per month, right? Or 275 if you're paying by card, okay? So what happens here? You have all the modules, right?
For example, oh, let's look at an example here.
Harmonic patterns, right? You can see that our classes are very well- founded. You guys aren't listening here, are you?
Well, these are really, really, really, really, really powerful lessons about many, many things. Look, everything you see here on the right is from classes. If you look here, this class took place, how long was it?
Approximately 30 minutes. This is a shorter lesson from me. However, there are classes here that last an hour and a half, and others that last 3 hours.
SMC, I talk about SMC, I give examples of, oh, this is a much longer lesson, 1 hour and 15 minutes of class here.
Basically, all the Fibonacci sequences, all the Exoch sequences, all the TPO sequences—there are five TPO sessions alone, that's 13 TPO lessons. That's 13 TPO classes, dude. This is really worth it, guys. It's very worthwhile. And it's included in the monthly fee. If you pay a monthly fee, you have access to all of this. He says: "Ah, I did n't like it, I thought it was crap." Ready.
Next month you can cancel and leave, right?
Next month you can cancel and get out of here. So, to have access to all of this, in addition to market analysis and everything else, you need the trader plan. This is the most comprehensive plan available. Click here to join the waiting list. Just a reminder, we should be calling people from the waiting list next week. And although today there are 62 people on the waiting list, there are some people here, who are actually at the very end of the list, who were called last time and didn't respond. So, we make two calls. First of all, we put them at the beginning of the list, okay?
But we'll do the second one, call them again. If they don't respond, we remove them from the list. So, maybe if you put your name on the waiting list today, I'm not going to guarantee it, but maybe next week you'll be called. So, enjoy it, okay? Enjoy. Oh, if you're not affiliated with us on Okex or Bybit, it costs 375 per month. If you're an affiliate with Okex, Bybit, or Bitget— sorry, I'd even forgotten, there's also Bitget. It costs R$275 per month, but you get a discount of R$100. Great, right? Well, actually, it's paid in crypto, it's that small amount, 220-something, as we saw earlier, but I need to adjust that. That's not right, okay?
That's not right. Now, ah, I don't have time to study all that, I don't have time to sit around watching portfolios, I don't want to, I don't want to know about that, I only want to know about analysis. So there you have it, you see here that we have a tab here for Smart Trader analysis, you see the name here on the left? Smart Trader. Whoa, let me get out of here, okay? Smart Trader, this is a free plan; it's only in exchange for an affiliation fee. Ah, but damn, then I can access the analysis and then join the trader. Okay, the best thing in the world would be for you to first become a smart trader, because then you'd be eligible for the discount, and then whenever you want you can become a trader, you understand?
So here's part of the analysis, here's a summary of what we did here, see. When I talked about the long-distance trade, from the Central Bank, it almost reached 1,000, as you can see here, we had already realized 728, plus 211 that were pending. These are the many, many trades we made over the course of several days. XRP hit its final target, I think I even showed it here on YouTube, if I'm not mistaken, right? Well, anyway, guys, things are serious here, okay? The thing is, we really give it our all, we give our blood here to make this happen, and especially, the trading plan is where the gold mine is. So, for us to offer this smart trader platform for free, just in exchange for affiliation, it's a huge effort on our part, okay?
So, if you're interested, folks, to become a smart trader, just click here, "I want to be a smart trader," or "I want to register through OKX, Bybit, or Bitcat." And then you fill out the membership form there. After completing these steps, please read this, okay? Read.
I'm only asking one thing of you: read, my friend. What do you have to do so that you don't fill it out and then it's all wrong? No, he didn't deposit it, he did n't do anything because I didn't create an account. Or maybe you already have an account that you created a while back, it has nothing to do with our code.
Then you make a trade, fill out our form. Damn it, my God, man, for the love of God. Yes, it's with our code.
What's actually paying for your smart trade is the brokerage firm passing on a portion of those fees, which would otherwise go entirely to them, to the traders.
Beauty? So that's it. So sign up for the waiting list, sign up for Smart Trade, see what 's best for you and go for it, okay?
Now, regarding the order flow aspect, let's continue with the analysis. Look, there's the Chaco!
Guys, hit that like button hard in the comments after my bro Marja's live stream.
If we get good engagement, tomorrow we can consider doing a live stream together. The pair of two. Good job, Dad. Let's go.
Morja, I'm new to the market, but there's a possibility it could hit 90.95 and after that it will fall below the bottom formed at 65. Actually, the bottom is at 60, right? Was that a possibility?
It exists. But it's a possibility that will become less likely, okay? Why? We're in a very interesting target zone in case this turned out to be an ABC, right?
If I were to find those targets you're talking about, from 95 to close to 100,000, this second pattern here, which comes from the bottom at 65, would look much more like a wave 3 than an ABC pattern. I saw that the guy down there asked, " Where's Peter Pan?" This is controversial for you.
Where do you believe the bearish count will be invalidated? Does breaking above 83 invalidate it immediately, or higher?
As I just mentioned above, right? For me, it's up to 85, because as I said, the majority resistance is here at 84, which is the Vio, the upper band of the annual VOAP, and this dynamic with the VOAPs here, with the annual VOAP, has been very strong, right? Just like we also have the anchored VOAP from Alltime High, which is a little above 83. So, one is at 83,600 and the other is at 84. That's why I say, let's put a safety margin, 85,000. I think if it starts to exceed 85,000, the count isn't invalidated, okay? Because this ABC wave, this C wave, it can be an extended C wave, but it's common? No, it's not common. If you take 1618 here, the highest probability is that this wasn't an ABC and that this was a 1 2 3. Then I move on to a 4 and a 5. Okay?
But anyway, guys, as I get closer to 100,000, 98, I make a breakout failure at 97, man, those are super important targets for us to short, but the mentality is to buy back right below, not to hold on because it's going to be the swing trade of my life, you know? And I think that what would bring the best possible short swing trade would be a confirmed price structure breakout here. Where is this structure located?
Bottom, top, bottom, top. That's the majority structure, right? 65,000.
Now, if I look a little less meticulously, like, if I'm looking at a one- to-one chart and I'm looking at a 4-hour structure, where do I have the important bottoms and tops? Bottom, top, bottom, top, bottom, top, bottom, top, bottom, top.
Where is the support for this high-level structure? It's at 74,900. 00. If that 74,900 is lost, the short on the retest is mandatory for me.
Damn, what kind of trade is this short? If this happens, if, for example, we come from here and lose 74,000, because then I will have sacrificed the upward structure that remains impeccable, continues without being sacrificed at any point since this upward trend began, okay?
Now, if from here I touched the one-on-one, and didn't complete five waves on larger timeframes, I'll go and miss the bottom of 74,000. I changed the market structure and I need to short with more power, with more force to reverse. So instead of working with 50% protection, I'll work with 70%, or 80%. Okay? I think that's exactly what we need, don't you think? Where does the count become invalid? Because if I'm failing at an ABC, that ABC might have a very extreme proportion, but it's not common. So what I have to work on is what validates, what strengthens this count, and not the inverse question.
It's OK?
Beauty?
So, moving on to the order flow section, to wrap things up here, see how the book looks now. See?
That's what I'm saying is important. I'm going to take a little longer to the market now, okay?
Let's short another 1250 here to bring the total to $24,000. Okay, let 's shorten it a little more. It's not because the book is like that. I'm going to collapse from here. That doesn't exist. That doesn't exist. Okay? But look, we were just talking about that awful analogy I used to make, the one people asked for, make a new one because you're awesome, you're the best in the world at analogies. I mentioned the brilliant analogy of Velia, the neighbor Velia, and the pincher, right? The neighbor's miniature pinscher.
And this here is the miniature pinscher trying to bite you. If you completely ignore this, it doesn't make sense. You're hitting a negative delta of 166 million here already. It doesn't mean we can't go higher. Of course you can. You can even break up with it, you can ignore it, you can not give a damn about any of this. This is what the book's structure looks like at this moment. Soon she might not even be here anymore. That's why we always monitor the order flow. It's dynamic, it's in real time. That's why we need to monitor what's happening in real time.
But right now I have a sign that is important. I need to react to this signal in real time. This signal that the market gave me initially made me want to sell when we were at the top, and I bought back 10% of the total capital. We went from 49% protection to 39%. Now I'm already going back to 45, 46. Why? Because first, we've already recovered about 3% of that, basically. And the second thing I looked at the book, the book gave me a signal that was n't there before. And that 's always important, okay?
Look what Fabio put here!
Look what Fabio put here. It's definitely worth it, guys. Enjoy! In a year and a half, I went from someone who didn't understand anything about trading to being able to manage my trading accounts on my own. Thank you very much to the traders. Man, this is worth the world to us. This is worth way too much, way too much, way too much. It's no, it's no, it's no small thing. That's the goal we have here, to empower people and at the same time for them to feel grateful for everything that has been shown, right? It's because of everything that has happened. And that's what really touches us, it's when we see, first of all, that the person managed to absorb the message we had to give, managed to understand a subject that is super complex, that is full of nuances like trading, and that this person is also grateful for that. Damn, that's really awesome, man. That's really awesome.
That's really awesome. Thanks, Fabio!
Thank you, Madiora. And if he comes back, he loses the 74 and comes back, the prices could almost hit 60,000, you understand?
This isn't going to be a process that happens overnight, but if he misses that 74 and comes back for a retest, what could we be considering this to mean? The beginning of wave one, and that return would be wave two.
I 'm looking for a pattern of five falling waves. So I'll go after a tr for a qu for a c. So we're looking at prices below 60,000. It's just going to be a one-time failure. It will depend on the size of that wave for me to start projecting the targets, because since I don't have it yet, I can't guess. But we're talking about targets below 60,000. It could be something more extreme, hitting 40 or 45 minutes, or it could be something shorter. This will depend a lot on the structure of the book, the funding rate, all of that which we analyze here day after day, to understand how it will be behaving when the market reaches these levels, okay? These levels are crazy.
Strong bullish divergences in the USD. Let's see.
Yeah, people are really posting a lot of short comments here, without any response. That's a huge bullish divergence, but at the same time, uh, I don't consider our shorting here to be bad, because it's a way of taking profits, right? And we're even more exposed than we were before. Let me see what the price is now.
Production level. 24 days for 53.8 44.5, right? We're still way more invested than we were before, okay? 55% of the portfolio is still invested.
If we come here to 82, very close to the invalidation of the top, then I short a little more to get back to around 48, 49, 50% protection with the invalidation right above the high, that is, the stop right above the high, okay?
So let's go, let's do this, let's close the order flow section.
First, I wanted to talk about liquidity, you know, settlements. One thing that aligns with those targets is that they are right above the maximum for a possible breakout failure, touching 84,000, touching 83,500 where AP was anchored. These are the peak liquidation periods in the short term that we're focusing on at 10x, 25x, and 50x. It's really something more focused on the short term. Keep in mind that in the long term we have a much larger number of liquidations, concentrated above 128,000. Oh, the lowest point we have below the price, if the bottom is broken, is 47.
That's why I'm talking so much about 48.
48 was a major support and resistance level several times back then; it was a very important level for the price. So, if we lose those 60,000 and go into a deeper correction, I think 48,000, 47,000 is a super important level. So, basically, you'll have reduced all the clearance levels you have to the price below. And the biggest concentration of sales is actually above the all-time high. Beauty?
Anyone who says there's more liquidity below the price than above it is crazy.
Today we have many more sales, much more liquidity going up in price than going down, right?
As we've seen, part of the orderflow does indeed have a very large bullish divergence in the inverse, but this doesn't exist in the SDT. Well, it's starting to take shape here in the short term, but without much contract input. Let me take a look here.
No, there are some entries here showing interest in the short term, but nothing outside the norm for SDT (Sistema de Valorização da Tecnologia - Global Development Plan) is still relatively small, okay? So yes, the order flow is bullish, there's bullish divergence.
Let me see if there's any Coinbase CVD here monitoring the activity. No, Coinbase's CVD is distributing. So we have some positive points, some negative points. Inverse is quite bullish. It has many of the flaws found in the inverse version, but this one has a large presence of contract input, so I'll consider that a strength, okay? On the side of the bulls.
Well, Coinbase's CVD, which had been following all this movement, has entered a more distribution-oriented mode, and despite this bullish divergence, I still think it's prudent.
Given that you sold, and you bought at a low price, you now have another opportunity to start selling again. I think that way, you don't necessarily need to short everything here and work with a stop way up there, because you 're kind of in the middle of the R range. Well, not exactly in the middle, but at the top, but still a little distant from the peak. But you can, like, work with this price zone here, you know?
Let's say this whole area is a short position, with the invalidation above the high. I'm not going to place any orders here right now because in a little while we'll have a live stream with the smart traders and traders to continue updating you on the market, okay? trading there live. We'll even look for some other possible trades or even manage our trades a little better, figuring out how we're handling those initial movements. Let me check here to see if there have been any changes.
Well, not for now. Z Che came very close to hitting the target, but didn't quite manage it yet.
But everything's the same here for now, okay?
Therefore, the portfolios are still at a fairly high buying level, even though we are in the short term here starting to consolidate some of these profits. Beauty? So, I would work with this whole area something more or less like this, in case he does another rotation, in case he does that triangulation pattern I showed, something close to this, anyway, it's up to you how you're going to deal with it. I just don't like it, regardless of whether there's a stupid disagreement or anything like that, I don't like ignoring a sign like that, because every time we ignore it, it ends up not being the best thing in the world, okay?
And you guys, did you leave a like there, man?
We're in this together, Bigfield Cryptoman. I've never lost money again when I'm with traders; on the contrary, I've only made money. We're in this together, my dear.
Thank you very much, Marola, are you dating anyone? I 'm engaged, almost getting married.
Majora, I'll add that nickname to the list of variations. Ah, that's it, man. That's the straight-up guy. Well, instead of calling me Maroja, call me Majora. I think Evandro, Pitz, called me Madiora instead of Maroja about 15 times.
Until we get it right.
Good morning. Can you explain how to use these indicators? My dear? We explain it every day here on live stream, right?
But it's something that is built up over time. So, of course, the more in-depth explanation, with classes and everything else, is for those who are traders. I even showed you how it works a little while ago. If you go back a little in the live stream, you'll find an explanation about our platform, Discord, and everything else.
Thanks, Cryptoman. Thanks for the R$ 2. Greetings Trader, greetings Lazinho, thank you very much, my brother. We're in this together, my friend.
It's liked. Thanks, intern. We're in this together, my dear. Marogid, I have 35% of my portfolio protected. Should I increase my protection? Your opinion matters, bro. Only you know the answer to that, man. I think it's important that you increase something here because we're getting close to the mass. But understand that the market is strong, we can break out upwards. I just understand that you, I always find it interesting when the market, you bought here, the question is this, you sold here, sold here, bought here, bought here, because this here is a, you understand? It's a game that goes back and forth until the market decides to actually break through. No one can guarantee that we'll make that break directly. It could happen. And it would be wonderful, man, if we could continue with this trend, see if we can really fix this third wave. We're making money, accumulating money along the way. But I always think it's important when you're getting close to invalidation, to a peak, that you manage to achieve something, even if it's just a little, you know? It's not about going from 36 to 60, like, "Oh, I'm going from 35 to 60."
No, that makes no sense at all. It goes from 35, then to 40, then to 42, then it adds invalidation, then it adds a stop loss. If you set a stop loss, you go back to 38. If you go a little higher, you break through a relevant region, see a price reaction, place another stop loss, buy back lower, you have to move, that's the most important thing, you have to act.
Wow, this guy's interested. That's Toothless, bro. Toothless is all about jokes. He's here every day. Majora's Mask MK, a great Sega Zelda game.
Exactly, man. I've never, I've never played Zelda, I believe. I never had one.
Nintendo, and I had some cousins when I was too young to play Super Mario and that kind of stuff, but I never owned a Nintendo.
I ended up not playing those Zelda Nintendo 64 games, Ocarin of Time, Madora Mesc, I did n't play any of that crap.
After becoming a trader, I feel sorry when I read the questions in the chat. I just think, some people don't know anything about that. But, dude, you remember you were there, right?
I remember you were there. Our job is to gradually raise awareness among people, but never arrogantly, always calmly, peacefully, and helping others. Let's go.
Okay, everyone? Well, I think I managed to get my point across here. I think there are a few more points here to be mapped out regarding order flow so we can actually trade there live. But I'll save that for Smart Trader. It was during the Smart Trader era, I was thinking of doing a 2-hour live stream, but maybe I'll move it up a bit to 1:30, 1:45, because we can end up trading now that the market is volatile, right? I'll let you know in a little while. Did you guys leave a like? Well, we managed to reach 18,500. 18,500 people. Thanks, everyone.
Thank you very much, okay? Thank you very much. I was hoping we could hit those 18,500. It's not much, but damn, it makes all the difference.
Thank you so much, everyone, from the bottom of my heart. For those who wanted to follow along regarding the Bybit issue, well, go back and watch, I talked about it quite a bit. Lots of terrorism, little concrete action. I spoke with the manager, it's all posted there in the announcements section. Of course, this can change from today to tomorrow, etc. But the plan is that by July 20th they will have the global platform that will operate just like OKEX. There will be two platforms, one just for trading derivatives abroad, right?
And another nationalized one, just like Kex operates today. And on June 24th, the only change is that KIC 2 will become mandatory. The offering of derivative products in Brazil has to cease by September, right? And as I said, it will no longer be offered on the Brazilian platform, but you will be able to continue using the global platform just like you are doing.
Beauty? But anyway, then you choose if you want to go to ex, we also have a code there that also entitles you to the trader discount, smart trader and all that stuff, okay? So there are a few more points I wanted to touch on in this analysis, but I'll leave that for the Smart Trader, okay? We have a live stream here that's a bit longer than I usually do, almost 1 hour and 50 minutes, almost 2 hours of live streaming, but that's it, a really cool day, I think it's a super interesting live stream that we did.
And that's it, okay everyone? Thank you so much to everyone who gave us support and helped us. We're all in this together, okay? We're in this together, guys. Warm regards to all. Remember to read the disclaimer here.
None of the information presented in this content constitutes financial advice.
Its purpose is purely educational and for entertainment purposes.
Investing in cryptocurrencies involves risk, and the risk is proportional to the return. Manage risk properly by investing a percentage of your capital that you can afford to lose in case of losses. This way you will be diversifying your portfolio and at the same time avoiding the risk of ruin. Never trade with capital you're not willing to lose, you son of a [ __ ]. Okay.
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