US Stocks End Lower Amid Escalating Iran-US War, Asia Falls; Lacklustre Start On D-Street Today?

Ajouté : 2026-06-04

[00:00:01]Every morning the countdown begins for the markets with meticulous research [music] and analysis designed to help you capitalize on the trading day.

[00:00:12]Beaming live from the CNBC-TV18 Motilal Oswal studio.

[00:00:28]>> [music] >> Good morning. You're with us here on a fresh new edition of Bazaar Morning Call. We are coming to you live from the CNBC-TV18 Motilal Oswal studios. I'm Prashant. With me my colleague Rima and Nigel. Guys, hi morning.

[00:00:38]>> Hi morning.

[00:00:38]>> Hi morning. Once again, we've got that two-track market. On one hand in Middle East, there seems to be some fragile ceasefire or truce. But on the other hand, so much happening on OpenAI. For one, software is pulling back and pulling back hard. And even the numbers that came out of Broadcom post-market hours, it's a miss and the stock is fallen close to about 14%. So that's the added overhang. And SpaceX, I feel big blockbuster one.

[00:01:01]>> Uh that's right. Plenty of cues both globally as well as domestically. And last few sessions have been rather rough for the bulls. Though yesterday there was a glimmer of hope. So we'll have to see whether or not you know, there's more pullback in store or are we headed lower. Prashant, let's get straight to the action.

[00:01:15]>> Absolutely. Rima, when you said that software is in a pullback, you mean pullback >> back of the rebound uh >> pullback of the pullback.

[00:01:21]>> Yeah.

[00:01:21]>> [laughter] >> of the rebound in that sense. And yesterday was a case in point. Well, let's just take it from the top and tell you what's happening. So oil prices moved up 2% last night. And I just wanted to mention that I mean prices are down below 97 now. Uh but you know, while US was trading, it was reacting to oil at 98. Uh and that's the context.

[00:01:41]But this morning as you can see, we're under 97 now. So you know, the Associated Press is reporting that Israel and Lebanon have agreed to a ceasefire. Uh and and but both sides essentially saying that well, this requires complete cessation of Israel is saying fire incoming fire by Hezbollah.

[00:01:58]and of course Hezbollah is saying that Israel needs to stop.

[00:02:01]You know, it's it's funny. I don't think we really had a had a ceasefire. There was a ceasefire, but I mean, you know, both parties were fighting. And you know, Israel was sort of going into Lebanon and talking about sort of, you know, going deeper and deeper. And there were, of course, attacks on the attacks in North Israel from Hezbollah missiles, etc. So, I'm not sure what this really would what this would amount to. But the reason, of course, this is important, of course, is that Iran has made it clear that any agreement with the US cannot be in isolation. It has to include what Israel is doing and what it should not be doing as far as Lebanon is concerned. And that's the reason why this all sort of, you know, ties in. Now, Iran's foreign minister also has made some comments. But actually, lots of commentary back and forth. But the point is, as they say, talk is cheap, right?

[00:02:48]You you've got to see activity. You've got to see real action. Iran's foreign minister saying our contact with the US hasn't been cut off, but no progress has been made with regards to negotiations.

[00:02:58]So, that is from the Iranian side. And of course, I mean, we'll play out some sound bites from President Trump. And there was, you know, all that happening which which which we will look at as well. Now, the the EIA reported a sixth weekly drop drop in US commercial crude supplies.

[00:03:18]So, that came through. Strategic reserve stocks dropped by 8 million barrels. And US reserves, by the way, are now at their lowest, at least in the last few years or so. You know, we've had company CEOs, these are large global companies.

[00:03:31]I think Exxon CEO came on record, and this is all in the last 3 days. There was a Shell CEO came on record. And I think there was one more, which is day before yesterday, who said, "Well, you know, the world kind of is is sleepwalking into a real oil shortage kind of a situation." Prices, you know, all kinds of prices being thrown about.

[00:03:49]I I the the Shell or the one of the two, basically said well we could be looking if this if this is if this continues the stalemate continues looking at 140, 150 dollars a barrel. Now US equities, as I said they were trading with oil at 98, maybe a little higher.

[00:04:05]So they were down and they ended their 9-day winning streak. Nasdaq was down almost about 0.9%. 9 days, right? I mean non-stop up and up and up. Of course I mean the day before yesterday was small up, it was a kind of flatish but we it was up nevertheless. 10-year yields were up five basis points, we are at about 4.5%.

[00:04:23]Nvidia was down 4%. Micro- Microsoft was down about three and Broadcom, the chip maker, fell 13%. This is of course the price action in the after-hours trading.

[00:04:33]For that one and we'll perhaps get you more commentary around it. Let's just tie in the levels here now. The market is falling but it is also not collapsing, right? And that's the point which we made yesterday morning as well.

[00:04:46]So if you look at for example Monday's price action or or Tuesday's price action, yesterday was Wednesday.

[00:04:53]Again, I mean you know the market fell but it didn't get to the gap area. Now when I say the gap area I mean the you know the gap which was made between the 7th of April and the 8th of April, that's the gap which is the gap to be filled. So yesterday we filled that gap in that sense. So we fell below 23,270 but we didn't close below it. That is a point number one. And let's just go back to the first you know this this table this played for a bit.

[00:05:22]We didn't uh you know we we didn't stay below it and Nifty is now filled the early April gap, the 7th of April. So that if you look at the low yesterday, 23,151, that is the high on the 7th of April.

[00:05:36]Now you can ask the question and it says it's a legit question to ask. What does this mean? Is this bullish? Is this bearish?

[00:05:42]But maybe it is it is nothing. I mean that gap if that gap had not been filled it was a pretty strong, robust area for support, but I think it still is the support in that sense. So, the high of 7th of April and the low of the you know, 8th of April, that's basically the support zone, 23 151 to 23 270 is the support area for the Nifty. And of course, I mean, on the way up, there's lots of resistances, but we'll just go with 23,800 which the Nifty needs to close above for any amount of enthusiasm to come back. Uh you know, flows etc. I think it was a matching number, but very large numbers and Nigel will talk more about this in just a bit. Um and and tomorrow, of course, is the Reserve Bank of India policy. It's a pretty consequential policy with regards to what the Reserve Bank does and says, and it's got implications for yields, it's got implications for the rupee as well. Gift Nifty will give you a quick sense of how we're likely to start. Oh boy, 200 points lower. So, we'll see if if this is going to be 200 lower at straightaway at start, which basically means that, you know, then you're looking at lower levels or this is going to hold and maybe turn around a little bit in the next hour or so.

[00:06:50]Nigel, let's walk across to the wall with the F&O data and positioning.

[00:06:53]Nigel.

[00:06:54]>> Well, crude oil prices have cooled off a little bit though the geopolitical risk continues to be alive, and the Gift Nifty is suggesting a pullback of from 200 to 250 points on. If you're a brave trader, probably you know, that dip could be providing you a bit of an entry opportunity just because crude oil prices have cooled off, but there are some statements that are coming from Mr. Trump as well. And this war appears, you know, maybe it gets prolonged a little bit. So, we'll have to keep an eye on that. However, this dip could be an interesting entry just for today's trading session going by the kind of fall that we've seen. The FIs, they continue their selling base well yesterday's trading session as well. The FI selling was matched by the DI buying.

[00:07:28]However, what stood out yesterday was a bit of a short covering bounce that we saw on the Nifty Bank, and that was evident, right? Because the Nifty Bank open interest was down, while on the Nifty itself, you had some open interest build up. So, there are shorts that are getting uh, built onto the Nifty, but there was clearly covering that we saw on the Nifty Bank. And, you know, that perfectly tallies with what the FIIs did. Yesterday, they added 30,000 contracts again on the short side. In percentage terms, it's at around 92%, which is the highest in percentage terms all the way since January. So, this market is aggressively net short and is bracing for some kind of bad news. Now, importantly, just in a matter of a week, the FII net short positions have gone up by 1 lakh contracts. That's right. Since the start of this contract, we were at around 1.5 lakh contracts on the short side. Just take a look at where we are because of the kind of addition we've seen, we're at around 2.5 lakh contracts on the short side, which is telling you the kind of addition we've seen on the short side just in the last couple of sessions. The problem is the India VIX, it had cooled off last week. It had in fact breached that 15 odd mark. Now, that's perking up a little bit. It's still pretty much well-behaved at around 16 and a half. It's okay. You don't need to get past the 20 odd mark. Remember, the recent high is at around 29 odd.

[00:08:36]That gives you a sense in terms of fear in the system, volatility in the system as well. So, this one perking up is not great news, but it's still far from that 20 odd mark, which is a bit of a risk level. In terms of the options data, the PCR is holding at around one. Remember, the other session we had aggressive shorts in the system and you had the PCR that came down to around 0.65, 0.7 odd.

[00:08:55]You want the PCR to come down and then in fact, you know, that triggers a bit of a technical factor when we see a short covering bounce. But, fair bit of action, 23,300 call, 23,300 put as well.

[00:09:04]Good amount of open interest build-up out there. And there appears there were some signs of writing even on the put side. That's around 23,300 put just in yesterday's trading session. The problem is the Nifty needs to break the strength that we've been seeing for the last few trading sessions. We have been making lower highs and we've been making lower lows. So, for today, you want to get past this mark on the upside from a bullish perspective, and the bears will cite a break of this particular level.

[00:09:29]So, that's the crucial range that you're looking at for today's trading session itself. Important that the Nifty gets past the 23,500 to give you some more because then we go on to challenge the 50 as well as the 20 year DMA, which comes in out here. So, that's the 50 DMA, you know, above the 23,500 mark, and yesterday's low becomes a bit of a reference point. The Nifty Bank, you'll have to bet on that one. Yesterday saw big recovery from the lows of the day, and it's very, very close to its 20 as well as its 50 DMA. So, it's going to be important. Was that just a flash in the pan yesterday, or is the Nifty Bank actually going to take some kind of leadership from here on? We'll have to keep an eye to on, but I think we'll that's the one that could in fact fight back from a bullish perspective.

[00:10:09]>> Thank you very much for that, Alex.