During periods of geopolitical uncertainty such as the US-Iran tensions, Indian stock markets experienced significant volatility with Sensex falling over 350 points and Nifty declining more than 100 points. This market correction was driven by concerns over stalled diplomatic talks, rising crude oil prices, and continued foreign institutional investor selling. The video demonstrates that during such volatile periods, investors should adopt a wait-and-watch approach, focusing on companies with strong fundamentals, operational efficiencies, and clear growth trajectories rather than chasing momentum in overvalued sectors. The analysis highlights that while short-term market movements can be unpredictable, long-term investment decisions should be based on company fundamentals, valuation levels, and sectoral growth prospects rather than temporary market sentiment.
Share Market Fall LIVE | Sensex Falls 350 Points, Nifty Down 100 Amid US-Iran TensionsAñadido:
better to look for wait and watch because this is just bounce back move.
So as of now if you ask me only one or two counter in IT I'll focus only on persistent system co-force or Oracle finance on the lower levels and it would be better to wait and watch and let the entire IT uh sector to get the settle at lower levels.
>> Okay. So that's with regards to a few of the IT names as we speak. But apart from it uh you know I mean if you have to look at markets right now as well Adani Pods BhartiLel Abola Hospital Cole India Tatastel Hindalo too from the metal names which are seeing some moves. uh there is still conviction parag when you talk about metal counters as well. I think yesterday or day before HSBC also came out with a note saying that the first half of FI27 at least there will be that momentum uh that could continue but with the surge that we've already seen where valuations stack up. Uh do you think it's still a good bet to look at metals as a fresh start? So I always mentioned the hindalo and JSW steel remain my favorites within the metal pack and within that right now at this price or say I would say 3 4% lower JSW steel is still a buy according to me because not because I'm expecting a big rise in steel prices in fact steel prices have moderated a bit but just because the company's execution is phenomenal they are adding 5 million tons every year with a capex of only 25,000 crores which is lowest capex per ton if you see globally and lowest opex per ton which allows them to make a beta return of 10,000 rupees uh and they're continuously adding 5 million tons every year. Right now the capacity expansion plan is to grow from 38 to 80 million tons. So and the net debt has reduced significantly after this JF deal. So I would say that this is a comp a very rare commodity player who is a compounder because of its own efficiencies.
>> From the commodity segment, let's just focus a little bit on the power segment.
Let's just pull out the chart of NHPC.
Of course, it's on focus of course of the OFS announcement and that over subscription amount has also come in.
Kosh, I wanted to get you on this uh a little bit of reversal there coming from the last trading session and a good momentum is being sustained. Now, of course, channel checks are suggesting that some large, you know, good institutional support is also coming in.
Uh how do you see this development for NHPC and in the medium-term any important levels to track?
>> Massive period of consolidation. In fact, if I look at it, you know, this has been in consolidation since the October of 2024. Look at the range on this one. You know, if if the team can bring up about 18 to 24 months kind of chart once it sort of dropped off 72 on the downside and about 8586 on the upside. It's been in that range for a very long time. Right now, it's a range place. So, if you believe that you know this range will be respected, you you have a favorable riskreward ratio. So with the stop loss at 72 for higher levels of about 79 and you know 84 85 you know the upper end of the range you can consider a trade but like I said this is more of a range play. So if you do get profits on the higher side you're better off booking it out rather than holding it for you know a much longer duration. The the other one and I think Paraba you spoke about Tatam Motor CV you you publicly stated also that you you got out at 490 odd levels but just you know that cabinet approval and we we we are putting up that story that BS4 trucks buses could be moved to BS6 that would be a big push but we are seeing a rangebound move for all these players for Ashokeen for Tata Motors after quarter 1 you're seeing that fuel price hike impact possibly having that bearing but at these current valuations Ashoken 44 Tata Motor CV also I think post listing was a 320 now is available at 360 anything that you like at least from the near to medium >> so it is worth considering for sure but right now remember see if oil doesn't fall then there is there are too many diesel price hikes can still further happen the under is huge we have just undertaken a price hike of 7 72 rupees we require much more so that will definitely cause demand destruction at the ground level for at least H1 then H2 we'll So that means again like I said in HL's case the first half there's a challenge.
So if you're a short-term uh investor you should be careful.
>> You know when you mentioned about HL uh I want to talk about ITC as well. That stock in terms of yesterday's session actually fell to a 52- week low. Uh today as well that stock is down nearly 2%. And it's actually there is something brewing over there as well because you're talking about record levels of what 500 from there it's corrected nearly 40%.
You're I was just seeing this data in terms of NSA's margin trading facility book where they're saying that the leveraged positions of ITC have actually surged to close to 1,800 crores as of the 1st of June which is implying a growth of 86% from April 30. Now if you have to look at the MTF book and the leverage on this counter with the downtake uh Chandan what are charts then indicating?
>> Yeah. So if you look at the ITC the trend is negative. In fact uh uh the ITC has been making lower top lower bottom the structure is uh negative whether you look at the weekly monthly daily or even the lower time frame. If I look at the price beer of last 10 days, it has seen a corrective move from 315 to 275 old levels and we have seen sustained cold writing and shorts are being built and those are rolling from series to series.
So as of now the structure is weak. We have seen huge cold writing at 300 that is the big barrier but on immediate point of view till it remains below 288 downside could be seen towards 265 to 260.
>> Let's pull out the telecom infra stocks.
All of them are seeing a good basket buying. Pull out Stellerite tech. We have the networks, HFCL. All of them doing well in today's market. Stellite Tech that's the company. It's a buyer.
It's not Sterling too. Sterite Tech, Tis Networks, all these are the stocks which are doing well in trade. Uh do you think the momentum is back Kush on this space because this has already run up a lot taken a pause again? The buying is starting. Is it healthy for these stocks or is there something else? not at all healthy. This is through the roof. I mean, you know, we'll have to create more space on my charts to accommodate the RSI levels. Forget the price levels, right? Sterite tech is on steroids. So, I would completely avoid this. Yes, if you have a position, you should continue to hold. I'm not saying that, you know, you should sell off. The momentum is fantastic. It's still uh you know, building on but massively overheated. No point, you know, trying to chase this now already at upper circuit so you really wouldn't get it anyway. HFCL2 very similar story. The only one that that perhaps you can consider as a trade right now is Thasis Networks had a meaningful recovery. Uh you know it's been beaten down quite a bit. So from a positional standpoint also riskreward ratio remains attractive. Golden crossover of the 50 and the 20-day moving average happened a while ago.
Yesterday you had that 20 and the 200 day moving average golden crossover.
Yes. So it's sustaining above you know some key resistance levels and you know building on maybe something that you can consider from a positional standpoint.
Again I would suggest a stop loss close to the 515 mark on the way up. look for targets of about 585 and 600 plus kind of levels. So this is the only one amongst the names that you mentioned that you can consider as a trade right now.
>> Okay. So that's with regards to uh TJS networks as well. But thank you Baragai Yush as well as Chadan for joining and always a pleasure uh to speak to all of you as well. But moving on Premier Energies that company continues to benefit from India's domestic solar manufacturing push seeing marginal gains of 210 of a percent. Now uh you know it has been supported by strong policy tailwinds and an expanding order book as well. Uh before we speak to Viner Rustagi, chief business officer at Premier Energies, Vasha joins in with more details. Uh Vasha set this conversation up for us.
>> Well, you know a lot of things actually working in favor when it comes to Premier Energies. One is of course the recent news wherein M&R has rejected industry demand for a blanket extension when it comes to ALM list two. What does this mean? that now solar projects will now have to use domestically uh you know approved solar cells. Now onto the business highlights when it comes to this counter. Let me talk about the order book. We stand at around 14,000 odd crop which provides strong visibility for the company. Entire order book is domestic focus and the major execution is expected in FI27 with some spillover in FI28. On the capacity which has scaled up to 3.6 gawatt with target to reach 10.6 gawatt module capacity is expanded to 11.1 gawatt. Lastly, on the business strategy front, they are moving towards fully integrated model from ingots to modules which will ensure the supply chain and they're also adding new segments like best and inverters and transformers.
>> Got it. Well, thanks so much for that versa. But, uh, let me go across to our guest now, Mr. Rustagi. Very good morning to you, sir. Thanks so much for joining in. It's Punit this side. We've seen you know that big update coming in for you as well as for all players who've already invested so much in the domestic cell capacity. If you can walk us through your timeline of you know the current cell capacity I think somewhere around 3.6 6 gawatt hour. How are you shaping that up over the next 2 to 3 years and what could be the potential benefit essentially from this move?
You've seen all companies that have invested early into sales will get a big benefit but what does it happen for the for the consumer for your customer essentially in terms of cost as well?
>> Sure Punit thank you for having me good morning. uh so you know the government announced a roadmap for domestic manufacturing of cells uh back in December 2024 uh at that time our cell capacity was 2 gaw uh and we obviously took immediate steps to expand our capacities today we are at 3.6 six uh and then we have a state-of-the-art uh 7 gawatt plant uh coming up in Andhra Pradesh over the next four months uh in phases. Uh the interesting thing is that we are investing in uh latest technologies uh to basically uh manufacture products which are best-in-class uh in the whole world uh and make sure that we kind of meet the demands of the domestic consumers uh in terms of uh the cost for the consumers.
So I think there are many segments uh in the market. Uh the two segments uh being uh residential rooftop solar and pushum program they already have been using uh domestic sales as per the government mandate. So for them there is no increase in cost. Uh then you have the corporate segment which now has to use domestic sales from uh June uh 26 onwards. uh for them I would expect the total increase in the project costs to be about 10 to 12%. Uh and uh but then on the other side they do get some advantages in terms of more stable supply more stable prices and obviously no uh forex risk uh and then there is the third segment which is the utility scale segment uh where uh the domestic manufacturing mandate applies to them only in about 2 years time. So for them as of now there is no cost increase.
>> Right. Good morning V. This is Shahed here. Just wanted to understand a little bit on the policy support front. Vara had clearly mentioned about ALMM2 scheme for the cells which are already active from 2026. What are the key timelines how things get benefited and by when we can see that in your numbers?
>> So I think Shah thank you for the question. Uh we already seeing that benefit coming through the numbers. As I said ALMM2 has a phased timeline. It has already been applicable to some of the market segments. Uh it is now becoming applicable to the corporate segment and it will become uh applicable to utility scale projects uh in about 2 years time.
So uh you know in terms of we are seeing that uh impact coming through in form of demand. Uh the demand for domestically made sales uh is expected to more than double uh from last year. uh last year we expected demand at about 16 to 18 gawatt uh and this year it should be about 30 to 35 odd gaw. So as a result all the companies who have invested uh early into the business uh are going to benefit from increased demand and better pricing outlook.
>> Got it. And Mr. Rustagi just you know in terms of what you mentioned as well that you will be going back into backward integration also for ingots amongst others. So just a quick question firstly on what is your current bill of materials that you're already addressing with the integration of cells in your complete project I think over the next year or so. So if you can give us a timeline by 27 what is the integration that you expect to reach in terms of capacity and by 28 also because you will be going backward it will also help you save a lot of cost. So how much of the bill of material is is already being addressed from you at this point of time and what's the timeline maybe by this year end and for the next year?
>> So if you look at purely the cost of production uh today we are making cells in house uh by 2027 we will be making inson wafers inhouse. We also have a plan to make aluminium wafers from the start of next year onwards inhouse. uh and together uh these three components uh will account I would say for about uh more than 50% uh of the total module cost >> and uh also in terms of as we see the projection as well because of course your module capacity has also shaped up very well are you putting in any numbers for growth in terms of what's the expectation on the revenue side for for this year and going into that do you feel that because there'll be a lot of cost as you mentioned escalations amongst others that we are seeing this year. So what should we expect for margins for you?
>> Uh so you know let's look at the top line first. I mean I think the outlook for the solar sector remains very bright. uh we have seen demand uh grow by almost uh 90% uh last year uh and uh with the current war going on uh with the you know fossil fuel prices at all time near all-time highs uh I think the government is having to rethink uh the whole energy mix uh and with a more emphasis on renewables coming through uh in the coming years we also see a lot of demand upside from new segments like green hydrogen data data centers uh and electric mobility, electric cooking uh etc. So I think the demand is expected to grow I would say by something like 8 to 10% peranom over the next 5 years. Uh in terms of the pricing so as a company we don't give out any future uh guidance but you know as we discussed uh you know our emphasis as a company has been on capacity expansion vertical integration and obviously venturing out into the new segments as well. So you know we endeavor to remain uh one of the top uh one of the largest most integrated companies in in the sector uh and that we believe uh you know will make put us in a very strong position when it comes to the future growth of the business.
Okay. Uh V, good morning. This is Hal here. My question to you is now if you're looking at the DCR, that's the domestic content requirement surge that will happen on the back of the ALMM2 extension. Uh if you have to look at Q1 and Q2, what is that fresh order spike that could be expected in terms of DCR in this first half?
>> Sure. Uh so you know it is important to understand you know like I said earlier the only change that is now coming in the immediate run with implementation of LMM2 uh is basically for the corporate projects. The corporate projects which were using imported cells before June uh this year now have to use domestic sales. Uh that segment alone uh is worth an estimated 15 gawatt peranom. So in terms of quarterly demand that's about 3.5 to 4 uh gaw. Uh a lot of these customers u are now going to actually scale up their programs given the uh the high cost of uh you know conventional energy. So we would expect about 4 to 5 gawatt of demand coming through on a quarterly basis >> and if you have to look at the order book as well I mean little what over 14,000 odd crores 2/3 is scheduled to be executed at FI27. So if you have to break that up in terms of the margin profile of these orders picking up from what Punit spoke to you about how much of this is going to be your high margin domestic sell orders versus your assembled modules.
So yes so so we have said basically I think about 56% of our order book uh is in the form of sales uh the rest is uh little bit of that is DCL modules but most of that is the remaining part is non DCR modules so I think it is well understood that uh the in the DCR business and in the cell business uh the margins tend to be much higher because there is a focus on domestic manufacturing uh and uh most of our order book will benefit from these higher margin products in the order book. Uh so our margins as as a result of that should remain in the visible trajectory over the next one year.
>> And in terms of the capeex via my last question to you is what 12,000 K outlay is what we are looking at 5,000 year marked for FI27.
uh you have tied up with IDA for debt.
You have IPO proceeds as well but an additional enabling resolution of 5,000 odd crores is what you're seeing. Will that actually require a near-time equity dilution if internal acrruals face working capital stress?
>> Sure. Uh so you know our internal uh our capex program is actually fully funded uh through as you said IPO proceeds internal approvals uh and the debt which most of which we have already uh tied up. So as it is uh as we sit here right now there is no plan to raise any more monies uh to fund any of our existing uh projects. uh the resolution that we have passed is more is basically an enabling resolution uh to give more flexibility to the company because we are looking at lots of growth opportunities both in India and abroad uh and should any of these opportunities materialize uh then obviously we will look to raise more money and may approach the market at the right time but at this point in time there is no we don't see any specific need uh in terms of quantum or timing >> and you know u Just one more Mr. Rustagi as well because you know what we've seen in terms of cash flow as well. Uh I think FI26 I think before FI25 of course your capacity was also much lower. So that capacity expansion has happened in FI26 expected in 27 and 28. So you turned the on a on a net cash flow basis roughly around 1700 cr is negative. Is the expectation that the next two years given the investment phase also will be similar and any guidance in the medium-term that you can give on cash flow do you expect that from FI29 onwards you feel that those investments will start to generate that cash outflow >> see I mean as you can see I mean you know in terms of the existing operations we are already generating a lot of cash uh our our cash flow uh to pat conversion was 87% uh last year uh and that is obviously all going into funding uh the growth of the business. Now in terms of uh you know how does it kind of play out going forward? Uh yes obviously we will uh the cash approvals will only increase as we increase the capacities and production numbers go up but I also said uh you know we energy sector is a very interesting space particularly when it comes to energy transition and some of the green energies uh there are lots of growth opportunities so I think we will be investing uh and continue to invest uh a significant amount going forward uh to basically uh strengthen our position within the solar sector as well as venture into adjacent technologies and product segments. So I think it is difficult to give you an exact kind of guidance but uh I do see a lot of the cash that we generate being redeployed uh in the growth of the business when for that and a very interesting take coming on how the cash flow usage and the policy up moves are going to help the stock as well as stock also we see it's largely at the day high level if you can just pull that out as well but moving on from this fresh SIP additions have slowed and stoppages are rising but Overall account levels remain stable, signaling that long-term retail participation and faith in systematic investing still holds firm despite near-term volatility. Mima is here with more details. Mima, what is this data talking about?
>> Right. So shahhat what's happened is that the fresh SIP registrations did hit a three-year low when the last API data came out and you know this is on account of many investors stopping their monthly SIP on the account of the way markets are right now and the SIP stoppage ratio is also rising very fast. Now if you take a look at the number of discontinued SIPs from 23 to 24 that is FI 23 to 24 it was at around 224 lakhs.
Now this has increased to almost 679 lakhs in 2526 um FI. Uh in terms of total number of SIP accounts also Jan 26 it stood at around 1029 lakhs which is uh you know which has been at that 1044 lakhs mark since the last 3 months. So that's not essentially increased as well. In terms of number of new SIP registration, Jan 26 it's stood at around 74 odd lakhs which has come down to 50 lakhs in April 26. So that number has significantly come down in the last 6 months itself. And SIP stoppage ratio also if you see that's increased from 52.4 in FI24 to almost 101 as of April 26. Now uh you know this this also needs to be looked at from a perspective that SIP is just a tool right because if you take a look at how benchmarks have done versus um the normal funds that have performed for example if you take a look at nifty 100 uh in terms of one-year return it's negative 2.7% but at the same time quant large cap which benchmarks nifty 100 has given a return of almost 6%. Similarly, mid uh small cap 250 has given a return of just around a percent in the last one year.
But something like a modil small oswall small cap has given a return of almost 10%. Nifty 500 has given a return of around negative.8% in the last one year.
But at the same time, quant flexi cap which benchmarks the nifty 500 has given a return of 11%. So I think this part needs to be considered that it's not uh you know SIP is just a tool and uh you know considering as to how markets have done these mutual funds benchmarking those um you know indices have done pretty good as compared to where they stand. So this is the overall view of what's happening with regards to the SIP flows.
>> Okay. Thank you Mima for that. You know this is a very interesting data point at a time when the FIS are selling out. uh the conversation all this while that we've been having is that the DIIs and it's the retailers who are coming in as a good support and strength. Uh Mohit Gang co-founder CEO at Moneyfront uh joins in. Mohit good morning welcome to the show. This is Hal here. My question to you is what is this data actually indicating? Because your SIP additions are indicating that there is hesitancy amongst your retail investors to actually commit money at this point in time given the way volatility has been creeping in in terms of Indian markets.
Uh so is it that the new cash is hesitant? Is it that people are probably making budget adjustments as well right now to say that let's sit on cash and not spend it out or not invest it right now because we don't know what the situation is going to be ahead. What is the sense that you're getting so far on the back of the data?
>> Hi, uh morning and thank you for having me on this. Uh look, I think there are multiple factors which are leading up to this kind of a SIP stoppage ratio. So there is no uh uh doubt we can't deny the data that the matured and closed SIP numbers have been higher in April than uh the new uh SIP additions right so the data speaks for itself even the month of March was not particularly good I think the ratio was almost around 100 odd% uh in that month also now the number of factors which I was alluding to number one obviously there is an M reconciliation which is happening around the data itself so there is a lot of mismatch historically around the data. A cleanup exercise has been underway for a pretty long while. I think a lot of cleanup has happened between the months of March and April. And number one, that is a reflecting in the data. B obviously you can't take away the fact that Indian markets for last two years haven't done anything much and we just been trading in a range and uh obviously the new set of investors who have joined in last 2 years haven't seen much returns coming from SIP and they are a little bit of disillusioned. I would not say that uh you seeing mass redemptions obviously here and there you are seeing some pauses and you are seeing people questioning the whole mechanism so on and so forth and perhaps that could have uh led uh but I don't think so that's the major component of the of the SIP stoppage ratio because uh we've seen over a period of time that Indian investors have matured dramatically and the cross flows kind of verify that fact when you see that the number remains static at around 31,000 32,000 odd road mark uh in terms of gross flows. So that's point number two. Point number three is that during the month of March and April, there is a lot of rebalancing which people do in their portfolios.
There are a lot of uh shuffles which happened. People try and see what has worked well for them in last few financial years. They want to plan for the next financial year. And there is when you see a lot of uh old SIPs getting closed and new ones getting booked perhaps not in the month of April immediately but start uh those numbers start hitting from June uh onwards right so my sense is there is a lot of portfolio rebalancing happening at advisor levels distributor levels and investor specific levels to kind of realign their portfolio to the new world and new reality and my last point on this um uh Hel is that uh obviously uh you've seen inflation spiking up across the country crude Food prices are soaring and so is the cost of raw materials and inputs and lot of other things. There is a little bit of uncertainty around jobs, right? So people perhaps are uh uh saving more in safer instruments uh kind of building that uh safer nest uh uh right and maybe building up showing up their emergency corpuses around uh different kind of mechanisms and perhaps not so much in so that could again be a minor factor not the major one to me the major factor is the amphi reconciliation exercise and the portfolio annual portfolio readjustments which happen around the closure of financial year. Uh good morning Shahhat here. I just wanted to understand in a very simplified manner seeing how much volatility is happening in today's equity markets also the newcomers who come in the markets in the mutual fund industry they haven't got any returns as yet they are moving to other asset classes also just wanted to understand if there's some newcomer in the market he has 100 rupees in his pocket how much does he allocate to equity debt how does it actually play out at the current levels >> look honestly I think there is no bullet answer to this question there is no simplified version of this entire thing.
Obviously, it will depend from investor to investor, their profile, their tolerance capacity, the kind of time horizon they have and the liquidity uh uh requirements, right? Uh keeping everything in mind, I think uh we currently are overweight equities.
Meaning to say that because of uh consistent underperformance in equity and the valuations uh having reached a reasonable level, we think it's time for investors to kind of go a little overweight on equity from whatever their asset allocation is. So consider an example that you are running a 50/50 debt equity portfolio. Perhaps now is the time to go 60 65 or even up to 70 equity, right? And uh take a little uh step away from your fixed income portfolio. fixed income of course on the longer duration end hasn't done well and with the expectations of interest rates rising we are a little underweight on the long duration fixed income portfolio right so you take off a little money from fixed income park a little extra in equities but again as I said there is no fixed formula if you were 50/50 go 6535 if you already 6040 go 7030 right so it will have to be adjusted but yes the time is ripe and perhaps pertinent for you to go overweight on equities gradually step-wise we don't see any miracles happening in next quarter or 6 months perhaps but with a with a two to three year perspective I think that's the place to go >> okay so you know that's an interesting take there but the trend from here on is going to be you know important to watch out for as to what SIPs are doing because if the retail money is getting stopped at some point in time that will be concerning to some extent as well for their markets uh in terms of flows but thank you so much Mo for joining in it's always a pleasure uh to speak to you you know moving on an important develop where the government of India has actually nominated 29 nonofficial members to the board of trade. Now uh this will be reconstituted board uh of trade under the ministry of commerce and industry and the reason why they're doing this is mainly to boost manufacturing and exports. Uh this will be chaired by union commerce minister PJ Goyel and this is a high-powered advisory board uh which has been brought together uh and they've got leaders from top corporate houses, tech firms and financial institutions. You can see the entire list as well. Your financial and advisory services uh you have CSTI State Bank of India chairman and Rajiv Mimmani EI India chairman and CEO. In terms of tech and electronics, you have Virat Bhya, Apple India managing director and Shrarimo Corporation uh co-founder from the automotive and aerospace uh division. You have Anisha Eminem and Shellesh Chandra of Tata Motors and Pawan Goena who will be in as well and you have Parth Gindal for core industry and infrastructure. So this is going to be an important development from the way the government is looking at it as well.
Uh to discuss strategies to enhance manufacturing and exports don't you think Shahadan Punit?
>> Well yes of course manufacturing Punit tracks it and especially looking at the way that defense is there there's manufacturing especially coming from Bengaluru and Hyderabad corridors. It seems quite nice and today itself EQUS also came out with an announcement.
Well, most certainly and I think we've seen all auto companies I think we've discussed that the amount of capeex that are putting in you will need a lot of representations from these personnel especially from likes of Shalesh Chandra Anisha into the board of course to give us that perspective what could lead the production as well as the growth in the next 10 years for the automotive sector.
>> Yep absolutely. So uh let's see what comes out of this uh entire I mean committee that has been set up as well. Uh but moving on from the Morgan Stanley Investor Conference, uh one of the interesting speakers that we have today with us, Jonathan Garner, chief Asia and emerging market equity strategist who's joining in to talk to us about uh what he actually thinks of the FI perspective uh about India at AL and the impact of the West Asia crisis.
Uh Jonathan, good morning. Welcome to the show. You know my question to you is with India's lower strategic commodity reserves which are absolutely relative to China or Japan at what threshold of global oil prices would you actually consider moving India back to an overweight position because you've recently downgraded India.
>> Well the most important thing as in any call that we make on markets is what's going on with earnings and what's going on with valuations. I do want to stress that the earnings outlook for India is is pretty constructive. We've got around about a 15% uh EPS growth uh on the 12-month forward basis and valuations are a little below 20 times forward P and that's down from peak multiples. But the issue is not really India, it's what's going on elsewhere and in North Asia, we have completely spectacular earnings growth. uh for example in uh in Korea something like 230% year-on-year earnings growth this year which I think will be a record for any emerging market we're probably looking at 30% plus uh for Taiwan and again Japan also very strong and so what's happening is that on a relative basis um you're getting allocation away from markets like India and in fact South Asia more generally into North Asia and even though North Asia's outperforming performed dramatically this year. This will be the second year in a row that Korea is performing very strongly. The forward PE multiples are actually in some cases lower than they were at the start of the year because the earnings growth environment just continues to improve.
>> Okay. Uh you know Jonathan with sticky inflation uh with the impact on oil where do you see the highest risk of EPS contraction happening?
Well, again, uh, yeah, it's certainly true that if you look at it across the whole world, a high oil price environment is more negative in aggregate for Asia than it is for Europe or for the US. But again, there's a North Asia versus South Asia thing going on here. Some of the countries that are most negatively impacted by a structurally higher oil price are in South Asia. It's not to say that North Asia doesn't have oil imports, but there are much bigger strategic reserves of oil and gas in some of the North Asia geographies and that's helped them be somewhat more resilient so far. But you're right to identify the oil price as a big uh swing factor and were the oil price to fall back in the second part of this year that would certainly be helpful from a balance of payments perspective for India and other countries in South Asia.
>> Okay. So Jonathan the question then is with FIS moving out how are they perceiving India at this point in time because that is a concern that India is looking at >> well actually if you look at the FI outflows they've obviously had to be matched by SIP uh buying domestically in India but but really you can date the FII outflows to really the third and fourth quarter of 2024 and then they picked up in 2025 and so far this year so it's about a sort of 18 months maybe going towards two-year phenomenon now and it's related to my answer to your previous question. Um it's to do with when some of these structural themes around very strong capex in relation to AI but also defense spending spending on energy and other thematics began to become much more central to investor portfolios and they became much less interested in long-term consumer centric themes within Asia and things that are more adjacent to the consumer like the financial sector and so in markets like India or indeed Indonesia or market like the Philippines that are very skewed to consumer and financials you've had this tendency for foreign capital to be withdrawn and where you much more skewed to um upstream capex related names which is the case in Korea, Taiwan or Japan that's where you're getting the strong foreign investor inflows.
>> Okay. So that's with regards to investor inflow. Now the AI tech boom are they still safe in terms of retail investors or are you saying that valuations are becoming very expensive and risky if someone has to actually look at uh the EIC boom and the play around it?
Well, uh we are talking about semiconductor names in particular and the memory sector um which is exemplified by the two largest market cap stocks in Korea. And more uh broadly than that, we're finding actually that um CPUs are increasingly used in in the in the AI technology innovation sphere.
And that creates a much broader array of stock particularly in a market like Taiwan that investors can get engaged with. And I do want to emphasize that um you know as far out as we can see this likely continues. So we do have a strong environment not just for 2026 on this thematic but through 2027 and it's early 2028 at the earliest when we might see a fade in terms of the growth rates that we're getting in the in the upstream capex sectors related to AI.
>> Okay. So that's with regards to where uh AI goes. Now overall if you have to look at investment bets in India and your view on consumption what would you put your bets on?
>> Well we we are negative on consumer really across the board even in parts of North Asia the consumer is struggling in the face of the of the energy shock currently. Um so actually we much prefer capital spending names of which there are some significant large cap names in India that are oriented to defense spending or energy uh capex which is ongoing here. The missing piece is the lack of large listed semiconductor stocks which are just not present in this market. So anything that's capex related um is a is a key thematic for us. Our economist um tacher is talking about India's investment to GDP ratio rising to 37 12%. Um and it is continues to be a very strong story that the public sector has been like enabling of capex in general here in India. So it's finding those names which are relatively limited within the overall index weight uh to invest in in India whilst being cautious around the consumer financials and the traditional IT services or downstream names that are affected by the the energy shock.
>> Okay. So Jonathan, my last question to you then is if you have to look at what's happening across the globe, West Asia crisis with the way FIS are behaving, what's happening to emerging markets, what are your key monitorables over the next 6 to 12 months?
>> Well, it's really about the earnings growth story which we've already discussed on this interview. So um from the beginning of the year if you look at the earnings revisions breadth um and how that's evolving it's just continuing to strengthen in industrial semiconductors memory um upstream energy to some extent materials areas like copper and it's continuing to weaken in all geographies around the consumer.
It's quite um a significant dispersion in visions breath is happening on a panasian basis and everything really flows from that in the way that we look at investment and you know the path back for the consumer it'll be partially driven by what's going on with the oil price but it's also driven by you know by policy and by the underlying sentiments of households themselves um in Asia. It's worth remembering that this technological um innovation AI is is uh essentially uh driving capital returns and it's starting to create a situation of uncertainty in relation to the labor force which is affecting consumer behavior as well.
>> Okay. So you know I mean India that becomes a problem right now in terms of emerging markets as a whole but thank you Jonathan so much for joining in.
Always a pleasure to speak to you as well Jonathan. It's interesting to see uh the conferences which are happening right now. They are seeing a lot of interest from Bofa to a city to a Morgan Stanley. Uh the commentary is also very interesting where they are still not really upbeat but they are not very negative as well. When you talk about the earnings commentary >> already a lot of selloff has happened and now I think they are looking at some pockets some of the foreign broking houses are bullish especially on the small cap midcaps other are still cautious. So it's still mixed cues coming in right now. Just the earning season has been over yet. So of course we'll be tracking all of these important uh you know foreign broking houses important days and how India's growth story actually pans out. Also artificial intelligence global capital flows all will be getting discussed and there is city India's conference 2026 which is getting kicked off in Mumbai today. Now this is a flagship event. is set to bring in global investors and policy makers representing companies with a combined market of nearly $1.8 trillion.
is now to get in more details what's in store from it. Yeah, let's go to my colleagues Riddhima Batnaga and Nimit Digshetta. Guys, a lot of important news coming in. A lot of important foreign broking uh you could say events are happening. Now, what's new here?
>> Yeah, absolutely and I are here. Uh it's quite a bustling and busy event already.
Uh like you already said, a market cap of about 2 trillion close to 2 trillion uh is in attendance here today. We're looking at the world's top uh investment houses. We're looking at the world's top bankers, top policy makers and top AI and financial experts. Uh what I'm looking forward to uh most is Sergio Gor, the US ambassador to India will be in attendance today amid uh trade talks that are going on in Delhi. We'll be tracking that live. Also really looking forward to the SBI chief CS Shetty who will be delivering the keynote here today in a short while from now. That should be very interesting. Former IMF chief economist Gita Gopinatan is here and she'll also be talking to Jane Frasier the city global CEO who'll be talking about Indian banking with the globe and how how capital flows have been changing in India a topic that's been hot can you tell us a little bit more about what's happening on the company side and the investment >> absolutely uh so in FMCG space also we're seeing big names H Mariala of Marico then you have Nestllays Manish Diwari Apollo hospitals, Sunita Reddi also uh you know lining up uh for the event and they will be discussing how the global disruptions have happened and how the boardroom talks are happening and not just this uh to discuss geopolitics and supply chain disruptions we also have JSW steals management and also Mahindra's to give us more on that and you know even in the AI and the deal space Nimit what what is the lineup >> there's a lot going on there uh importantly the AI space the AI India play will discussed here today and it'll be discussed by the people that seem to be de seem to be exiting India the foreign portfolio investors uh tease is here today is the world's largest sovereign wealth fund is here today and it's going to be a very important panel we're going to see how this goes through and we'll keep you updated on what's coming >> okay thank you Nimit and for that we are looking forward to a lot of conversations that you will be bringing for us from the city conference on the sidelines as well but yes your offline conversations will be absolutely more important than what actually uh makes it everywhere. But we'll quickly slip into a short break on the other side. Uh we'll speak to Amisha of Bank of America. Please stay tuned.
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The message is clear. It's 2026. You got to be real in a world of reals. You got to be original in a world where everything seems gen welcome back to India market open and of course let's just check the markets big reversal here coming in the IT space and lot of analysts had stated about you know this reversal happening because the structure was not strong let's pull out the nifty IT index to see which stocks are falling in trade we have of course the nifty big heavy weight stocks falling in trade TCS persistence techindra co forge all of them down more than 4% in the trade and if you just pull up the broader indices also no major support is coming in as well if get the midcap index or even the small cap index so of course it's a muted day of trade as well but to understand more the perspective of India emerging markets and globally where does India stand we are joined in by Amish Sha he's the head of India research at bank of America securities Good morning Ash. It's always a pleasure to have you. In your India equity strategy report I was reading interesting take has come is that Nifty still overvalued on earnings versus bond yields. Now what does this mean and why when do you think if a correction goes on the valuations turn favorable on that?
>> Sure. Hi morning Shahed. Uh thank you for having me. So look u you know uh valuations you can uh look at in a multiple ways. One of the way is obviously the comparison of Nifty versus its own history in terms of valuation.
There we could argue that India has become reasonable in terms of valuations. Uh the second is to compare India's valuation to emerging markets where adjusted for growth India still continues to be one of the expensive markets. And the third comparison is to compare it with the other asset classes like bonds that you mentioned given that the bond yields have gone up you know and equities is always a premium over what you can get over the bonds. Uh so relatively speaking equities are currently expensive in comparison to returns that you could possibly make from debt markets as well. Uh so that's the context. Uh you know having said that we do think that if you are somebody who is invested in nifty there is a possibility that from current levels you can make about 10% rupee returns. Uh so as a foreigner maybe the returns will be lower on the back of rupee depreciation but singledigit kind of dollar returns is still possible uh from nifty in India.
>> Okay. Uh Amish good morning. This is on this side. question to you then is I mean you're talking about where valuations stand in terms of Indian markets however if you have to look at the FI positioning as well they've continued to remain sellers now what factors according to you will actually get them to turn buyers in terms of Indian markets because the other concerning area I have right now is the SIP data SIP is on a reduction path right now so there is the retail investor also So who's probably losing that kind of interest right now?
>> So Hel you know as far as the FIS go uh look I I never believe in that argument that just because FIS are underweight India or they have sold a lot of Indian equities they they therefore will come back to the markets you know that I think is a lame argument. Uh foreign investors will go where they find returns. uh as of now adjusted for valuations and growth as we were discussing returns are much more attractive in uh you know the AI markets of Korea, Taiwan, uh even Brazil is a commodity market and commodities are all doing well. Uh so I think uh right now they can they find alternative markets which are more exciting and therefore foreigners are very hard to come back in India at this point in time. uh as far as the domestic investors or retail investors go uh that the the the risk of SIPs coming off is a is a really big risk uh because going back to the valuation argument that we were having uh ideally in the context of where earnings growth cycle is for India you know there is a there's a reason to believe that India should be trading at long-term averages or maybe a shade lower than long-term averages because corporate earnings growth is run below the nominal GDP growth of India right now as far as the large cap nifty50 companies are concerned uh you know so the only reason where the valuation multiples have held up right now is on the back of domestic flows and if that starts to crack uh then valuation pullbacks are very likely >> Amish if that happens what are you then baking in according to you in terms of valuations and where markets go could go I mean let's let's look at the worst case scenario >> so we have drawn these scenarios already um you know so we have right now unfortunately there is no bull case for India so we have a base case we have a bare case we have a worst case uh so the the base case as I said is about 10% returns where domestic flows continue valuations give you no returns from here but the market compounds in line with earnings growth earnings growth we are talking about 8 1/2% so broadly 10% returns is what you can deliver in the base case in the bare case you know earnings growth still continues to be 8 1/2% but on the back of the domestic flows coming off valuation multiples will go lower than the long-term average multiples more closer to minus one standard deviation in which case we are talking about a 12% downside from here and your worst case you know builds in the risk that the Iran conflict drags on beyond June you know so currently in our base case we have assumed that by the end of June the conflict comes to an end but if it drags on for longer then commodity prices, supply chain issues, you know, they just persist. that pulls down your earnings growth uh you know from 8 12% more closer to flat earnings and uh it could then be a combination of weaker earnings comp combined with even weaker multiples uh you know that we hopefully uh you know we we hope that we don't get into that situation really >> weaker earnings weaker multiples and hopefully India should not get that but moving on from this uh Amish which are the sectors there will be a preference right now of because the first half of FI27 we all will be impacted because of the higher costs or the inflations coming but in this scenario itself which sectors do you think will do well or the preference would be good here you know so we have bucketed them uh in terms of uh either themes or whether there is value or there is a visibility of growth so I think from a thematic perspective The theme that we like the most right now is energy security. You know clearly we would agree that this is not an India conflict. This is somebody else's conflict but India is getting impacted because of its imports of energy. Uh so what can we do over time to localize energy within India or to have your own energy replacing the imported energy. Uh there we think that there are variety of solutions. Uh obviously it will take time. uh you know it's going to be a multi-deade theme if we start from a policy action perspective but there could be bofuels there could be electrification we could we could do more deep water oil and gas exploration uh you know there is coal gasification you know so there are variety of themes and stocks linked to that ecosystem including power financing companies power generating companies power transmission companies uh even the coal manufacturers uh you know the cables wires uh those kind of ecosystem players you know so that is one pocket uh that we find exciting on the back of a theme playing out we are also excited about the ship building sector in India uh that's a space where you can generate a lot of employment and the market shares are going to move away from the existing hubs of China Korea and Japan because population there is aging uh so that's another theme that we are quite excited about um you know so that's one bucket the second bucket is lapping up to the the global themes or you know so if globally there is AI which is doing very well what feeds into the AI ecosystem uh is commodities uh you know so things like aluminium stocks, copper stocks uh again cables and wires, transformers you know so those are the kind of stocks that we think will do well uh you know linked to the global growth story uh and then uh coming to the value bucket uh we do think that you know certain utility companies you know both power and gas uh plus telecom plus hospitals and pharma uh is something that we are excited about. And then finally you know uh within the value we would also put in the financial space uh which which was always value and because of the west Asia conflict has become even cheaper.
>> You know those are interesting sectors Amish that you're mentioning about but I was just looking at Buffa's trajectory in terms of what they're expecting from the RBI. Uh the house view is a cumulative 50 basis point interest rate hike for FI27 as a whole. With the way things are panning out, you have the policy which is just slated in the next couple of days. How severely will this macro tightening that we're looking at pressure the domestic cyclical sectors as well if you have to look at real estate or even for that matter auto because the view in terms of auto is very different. auto and auto and auto companies if you hear their commentary absolutely bullish when you talk about FI27 you know yesterday I did meet the management of Marauti where they were indicating that EV and CNG sales have been spectacular in the last couple of days in terms of bookings so there is that divergence in terms of views that is coming in from what the macro could look like what it could look like on the ground and what corporates are talking about >> absolutely pretty. So interest rates is obviously one factor uh that could lead to growth slowing within the auto space.
The other is the commodity uh you know cost inflation uh which can impact the margins for these companies. Uh so look a large part of the GST cuts from 28% to 18 uh that we saw around Diwali last year. uh a large part of that benefit is gone uh and the residual is likely to be gone very soon if companies will have to take price hikes in order to offset the commodity pressures. Uh so you are right that the outlook currently for autos is very good but we do think that the outlook can moderate uh on the back of these issues going forward. uh you know but specifically within the autos uh you know the EV theme that you spoke about or the CNG that you spoke about I think that will see further acceleration you know uh and and we are already seeing early signs where uh EV cars or EV capacities are now facing supply side challenges you know so companies are already talking about adding more capacities there uh so we do think that you know two wheelers commercial vehicles the conventional ICE technology passenger passenger vehicles you know those can be vulnerable to commodities and rate hikes but the EV side of ecosystem can actually accelerate from here >> okay so it's going to be interesting to see how things develop as well but thank you Amish so much for joining in it's always a pleasure to speak to you as well but moving on SBI chairman CSTI delivering opening keynote at the city uh conference let's listen into what he's going to talk about because here he's talking about the resilience that India has in terms of the geopolitical issues let's listen appeal to many of the students millions of students those days today I'm very proud to say that India is surplus in the food grain production and India has established itself as the fastest growing major economies in the world but the most remarkable aspect of India's rise is not simply the pace of growth it is the ability to deliver transformation at an unprecedented scale and throughout this journey the banking sector has been far more than a provider of financial services. It has been a crit critical partner in nation building.
The most distinctive feature of India's developmental journey has been the creation of a worldleading digital public infrastructure. I think you're all familiar with the DPI Jam Trinity. I think they have they've been spoken quite a lot. But the digital province what India has developed particularly in the payment space is amazing and you must have read uh extensively that today UPI handles 200 billion transactions every year and very proud to say that in SBI handles 30% of that volume if you see the volume of transactions and the capacity what the system has developed SBI alone handles almost two two50 million transactions every A in on UPI and with a technical decline as low as 01%.
So you need to build in India if you are operating you have to build for scale and build scale which actually you know create the flywheel impact going forward. So the jam trinity definitely have helped in terms of creating foundation for one of the most ambitious digital transformations in modern history. Banks have played a central role in translating this digital infrastructure to economic opportunity.
Social security coverage expanded dramatically from 19% of the population in 2015 to over 64% in 2025. The bedrock of this is what is called direct benefit transfer which has not only prevented the leakage, it has brought many people into the fold of the benefits what the government has been giving to them and again the digital public infrastructure played a very important role to ensure that the DPD is delivered with efficiency and low cost.
One of the most other significant achievements in the Indian banking system has been the democratization of access to finance. This DPI and uh the the whole gamut of data availability in India has ensured that the finance access to finance the the the story which I mentioned is no more relevant.
You know when not only the collector everyone in India has access to the finance today. The micr finance sector offers a compelling example. Today 95% of micr finance borrowers are women and nearly 80% belong to rural areas. Over the last decade the number of active borrowers has increased from 33 million to nearly 63 million. During the same period the sector's loan portfolio expanded almost sevenfold reaching approximately 2.5 trillion rupees.
So these numbers represent much more than credit growth. They represent women starting businesses, families improving housing conditions, children gaining access to better education, and households becoming more resilient.
Few financial inclusion initiatives in the world have combined financial access, social empowerment, and women led development at this scale.
Banks also have played a transformative role in supporting entrepreneurship.
Today uh large scale uh government supported non-government supported individually driven by the banks are immense. We have adopted digitalization at scale to ensure that theme financing becomes seamless in the country.
Consolidated MSE MSME credit outstanding is around 67 trillion rupees growing at a 5-year CAG year of 17%.
The other pillar of India's transformation has been the infrastructure and productive capacity creation.
>> Okay. So banks and digitization that's the key right now that SBI chairman CSETi is talking about delivering their opening keynote at the city conference.
We'll keep getting you further updates as well from our reporters who are there. But very quickly in terms of markets before you wrap up TCS, you know that's one stock that I want to watch out for 7 and a half% down tick coming in yesterday with all the surprises that you were talking about that when have we seen these kind of moves in terms of IT companies on the upside it's the actual reverse that has happened today as well when have we seen this kind of down tick as well on a single day right >> I think it's almost a year I could say the biggest intraday fall again coming back it's just reversing yesterday we're putting out lines which was biggest intraday gain now it's biggest intraday reversals.
>> Absolutely. So I think that's what the flavor of the market is right now. But we will get to you continuous coverage in terms of what's in store from here on. Stay tuned. Completely out of time.
With that, it's a wrap on India market open. Up next is Ask Profits. Thank you for watching.
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>> Hello and welcome back to NTV Profit.
You're watching Ask Profit. Uh my name is Punit Zeri and with me is Mima Arajani. And over the next hour or so we'll try and solve all those stock related queries. So if you haven't already, do start sending in on the number that's flashing on the top of the screen. You can also call us, speak to us as well as our guest on those stock related queries as well. The landline number for that is also flashing on the top of your screen. But as we look at the markets, yesterday was a good day in terms of recovery in the second half.
Today though, on the other hand, you you know receded back to those levels below the 23,300 mark. And we'll get Vashari to give us a benchmark view as well. But largely a day where it is down and out.
So you saw you got some indication yesterday. And if you can pull up the heat map, that'll give you that perspective also. The index is down 4 1/2%. And that's led by the top names as well. So in terms of the index, you're seeing a 7% downtake right now on TCS.
uh Tech Mindra, HCL Techch, Infosys are some of the other top losers of the Nifty50 and continues to be under pressure at this point of time. You've also seen some, you know, some gainers today, but it's largely, as you can see, 41 stocks in the Nifty50 that are currently in the red. And so, we will hope for a similar picture compared to yesterday where there'll be at least some rebound in the second half from the lows. But very important to track all those key updates. If you also look at the sectoral heat map, we spoke about it being down uh as an index down 4%.
You're seeing pressure across the board.
So all sectors in the red right now, realy is down 2%, you're also seeing the PSU banking index down 1.1%. But you know, as mentioned, continues to be a day that's under pressure. Also in terms of the advanced decline though we spoke about the pressure on the benchmark indices but in terms of the advanced decline ratio yesterday you saw a revival in the second half and today but it's been a down and out day for the broader markets as well almost a 2 is to1 a 3 is to1 kind of ratio getting very close to that number also is um unfortunately the state of midcap small cap also reflect that pressure and also look at the BC 500 in terms of individual names so of course midcap down 1% small caps trying to get some momentum but all those getting sold into at this point of time in terms of individual movers you're seeing all you know the tech names being in red so you're also seeing Berla soft co forge now down and nattoco fararma is also down while Glasco Laxmi organics are some of the gainers but you're seeing almost a 1% downtake on the BSC 500 as well but let's start taking all your stock related queries now it's an important day to get some views in so let me welcome in Vashali Parik vice tech vice president technical research at PL Capital and Gorang Sha as always senior vice president at Georgia Investments. Both of you thanks so much for joining in uh on this Wednesday morning. Uh Vashali just before we move forward you know we've we've yet again broken that 23300 mark and we've seen pressure across the board are you finding some support at this point of time? Any indication of some up move that we could expect in the second half of today?
Very good morning Paneer Gorang and all viewers. Yes, market is giving us uh tough times. Uh support levels are being challenged. So I would say for today's uh levels I think 23200 is the final crucial support level. If we break this then we are looking at 23,000 to 22800.
So the bias is definitely corrective.
let's say 50 points here and there and now are now we getting a bounce but uh the trend continues to be down even as far as bank nifty is concerned that is also showing and of course today uh IT sector has uh been instrumental in giving us a down slide but I think overall we are seeing good selling coming in almost all sectors so wait in what scenario and uh stay light >> stay light and most certainly and you capturing that momentum also of a downtake. Uh you know we've seen weather pouring down also in Bombay and that's actually reflected in the markets as well. It's been a down and out day to say the least. Hoping for some better momentum going forward. But let me go across and take you know our first caller for today from Hyderabad and Sat is now joining in for a stock related query. Sinat welcome to the show. What's your query?
>> Very good morning sir. Uh I'm holding RVNL shares of 1827. Okay. Okay, >> at the price of 331 average >> and it's been 4 years I'm holding this >> and right now I'm in the loss of around 28%age.
So I just wanted to know should I average or should I hold or should I sell when it bounced back >> and sat when you bought it of course and you've been a patient investor but uh did you look at the fundamentals at that point of view or did you look at the technical the charts view >> uh that time the railway stocks were picking I took at the fundamental uh fundamental and then I entered and I averaged multiple times when stock was going up and down.
>> Correct. Well then you know since you are in a difficult position let me get you both the viewers. So Gorang very good morning to you. Thanks so much for joining in. Uh if not a direct view on RVNL because you know as a strategy he's been holding and bought into railway stocks 4 years ago. Unfortunately it's a it's a bet that that's not worked for him but if you can give us give him some perspective of what he should do if not on the stock on the space any view.
>> Thank you so much Punit for having me on the show this morning. Good morning to all your viewers to Wish Ali and to her entire team. A small disclosure all recommendations that I'll be sharing with you this morning are part of our fundamental research team recommendation from a long-term point of view. Our company Jojit and myself we don't have any kind of personal investments no financial interest no conflict of interest but we share similar investment ideas with our clients. They might have their investment interest. So you know uh Indian railways related companies very often the spike comes into these companies near about budget because now uh uh both the budgets are clubed together.
Along with that couple of years back because of the modernization changes uh upgradation of railway station, railway tracks, railway uh coaches, dedicated freight corridors, uh more uh networking, connectivity, resolving the lifestile issue. Most of the railway related stocks were up and buzzing of late. I think most of the stocks have gone into a cold storage or hibernation process. Sinat over here has bought in at about 331 if I'm not mistaken and currently the stock is trading at 235.
So there's a huge hit uh punit that the investor is taking right now. The future I'm talking about the sector because on RBNL or as a matter of fact we used to cover IRCTC some time backs but our targets were targets price were in place and we have removed the coverage.
Currently no coverage also on RVNL we don't have coverage but the future looks extremely bright in terms of the changes and the resolution of last mile connectivity that the government and rail ministry spark but this is going to take time because you know acquiring land laying down tracks getting in connectivity electrification is also a big theme because lot of our locomotives are de dependent on diesel and electrification is also a big theme of Indian railways which the government's kicking off on a very large scale But the problem is uh acquisition price and the current market price. I I believe Vali would be in a better place to advise over here >> view on on the charts because you know of course he's bought at elevated levels but is there a revival on the anvil?
Would you recommend him to average?
So basically actually even we were tracking uh you know the rail stock some time back and we thought yes it will uh you know it was a fair value price and RVNL also we had recommended some time back but right now it's in a downward trajectory and from the recent data what we see right from 300 it's been corrected to now 235 so technically I would say stock is deep oversold so maximum erosion what I can see from here on could be around to 220 levels so uh I would say average out at these uh levels index and wait because when there is a turnaround in this sector you will get a bounce at least up to 300 320 so you will better your price in this way and probably uh hopefully you should be in gain also so 220 is a level to watch start accumulating from every dip from here to average out your price >> okay all right so that's the view on RVNL I think we've got AJ calling us from AJ Ambala AJ Uh very good morning to you query app key.
>> Uh good morning ma'am and good morning to all the panel. Uh Reliance 502N if you don't mind 800 and longterm view.
All right, Gorang, very good morning to you. First of all, your view on and then NSDL, is this the right time to enter?
>> Well, thank you, Mahima. Morning to you as well. If you permit me, can I answer this in Hindi for 100%. Thank you. Thank you so much. So Reliance refining oil to chemicals, retail, group management as a disclosure.
capital markets computer services.
compounds.
Got that view. But uh firstly I mean we do get a lot of queries in Hindi but I think uh that fiery response across the board I think you know it's it's got it's gotten a smile from Vali as well but very good view thanks so much for that Gorang but let's go across take another one from Vinnai who's joining us from Pune Ver good morning to you uh what's your query >> morning see Uh yeah, I have uh 2,000 shares of Larsson and Tubo at 3,200 rupees.
>> Mhm.
>> So I want to partially shift to one or two or two or three stocks in like semiconductor, data center, AI related.
So what would be the two and three stocks because I had investment horizontal of at least 3 years.
>> Got it. V and and V did you buy into LNT in the current fall because at 3200 it's a very attractive level you're also sitting on profits of almost 14 lakh rupees but did you buy it currently or have you holding it for a while?
>> No, I have been holding it for more than 3 4 years.
>> Got it. Well, firstly many congratulations. It's a it's a bet that's worked for you but Gorang you know in terms of uh he wants to diversify a little bit. Is it a good time firstly to book some profits in Linty and go into the areas that he wants to?
>> So pur I have always believed in one thing like investing is an art into stock market. Booking profit also is an art and the reason why you invest in stock market is so that your 100 rupees becomes X plus something depending upon the return that you want. I will not give an advice to book profit because we have a positive coverage on LNT. I would completely leave it up to Vin and of course Vali if she's got an opinion or a view over here. Uh his question uh data center semiconductor. So data centers there are a couple of investment ideas from our side basically providing into the backup part and the uh infrastructure part uh punit. So you have companies like Cummins, ABB, uh L&T again is involved into you know creating all these backup infrastructure and backend infrastructure for data center related for chips and semiconductors. We have coverage on three names uh Amber Enterprises, CG Power and PG Electroplast. So V I leave it up to you and your fine sense of judgment and wisdom and I hope Vishali can possibly throw some more light on this.
>> Sure. Vali any view on the charts?
Well, CG power and uh data center all these stocks are doing very well. So, I would continue to have a positive view even for CG power. In fact, technically also we have been recommending this stock and I think it's a must have in the portfolio because this can give very good returns from here and uh besides the sectors that he's recommending, I would also suggest capital goods like ABB etc. he can consider those stocks as well because they are looking quite robust on charts and can give good returns. So yes, I would say have a diversified view.
>> Okay. All right. So that's uh the view coming in on all of these uh data center player names. But time to take a look at uh the FNO space and the setup of course and the Q shaping up. Uh to give us a perspective, we have Shahara joining by as to what the cues are indicating at the moment. Shhat >> well it's a quite a negative cues there and it's a big stock reversal of the IT stocks which is there in focus and let's look at Sensex what's happening here and see much of the sell off TCS is down 8% techra down 5% is a massive you know reversal from yesterday itself nothing major happening when it comes to gainers also largely flatish for trend Eminem and power grid only marauti we are seeing a little bit of buying but nevertheless a big sell-off is there in terms terms of the markets and the technical strength is of course quite weak but what's there in the long buildup uh there was a little bit of profit booking earlier in this capital good play and now the reversal is happening g Nova transmission and distribution and avenue supers also but not that convincing also the significant portion has not been built yet also short covering we have NHPC a little bit of reversal the OFS subscription is there channel checks are suggesting larger institutions have shown interest and keynst also nothing major happening it's just still in the green but largely today has been a big sell-off and you're seeing some man capital also making it to the list along with the IT stocks and lastly let's see the short buildup and I think it's going to be the IT stocks as well just a reversal of what I was speaking yesterday to be honest and that's all it is in the FNO space today thanks so much for that so it definitely continues to be under pressure but take across the next query now and this one's coming from Sunil Kumar He is holding on to NHPC bought at 90 rupees per share and currently holding 3,200 shares. So he's uh sitting on a loss. Um Vashali any view that you can provide him in the near term?
Well, so actually uh it's not giving a clarity on trend, but all I can say is that the near-term possible view that I can have is it's holding on to 73 levels as support and we can observe a range of 73 to 80. List and until the stock sustains above 80, it's hard to tell whether are we seeing a good upward move.
>> All right. Uh the next one that we have uh is coming in from Soha from Bengaluru. She's holding five shares of Nestle bought at the levels of 1410. Uh she's sitting on a small loss. Wants to know whether she can continue to hold, sell or average at the current levels.
Uh Vashi, I'll stick with you for this one. Nestle, how is it looking on the charts at the moment?
>> So Nestle had got into an uptrend and right now we are seeing some profit booking and so some consolidation, but I would say there's no damage to the trend unless and until we see the stock going below 1340. So continue holding and once we see the stock moving above 1440 levels it's back on track and you can expect a target of 1500. So in my opinion hold but with a stop loss.
>> Kavali Vali also on Wellspun cop another query coming in. Now this one's from Rakkesh from Hyderabad. Uh and he wants to know a short-term view. We did have the the management you know just a few days ago in the studio a very bullish commentary in terms of revenue growth expectations but on the charts vi is that following through so I would say keep a trading stop loss because of course it has shown oneway rally right from 800 to now it's at 1387 quite a run up so be cautiously positive hold with a trading stop loss of 134 1340 and this can go towards 1440 1450 I don't see much of an upside from here on for now.
>> Okay. All right. The next one that we have is on Britannia Hersha from Vijayada is holding around 30 shares at a level of 5,700 wants to know whether to add hold sell from from uh again a short-term perspective. So Vari I have to stick with you for this one as well Brittany on the charts. So when it's shortterm I won't say add or just keep a stop loss of five 5,000 because once again stock deeply corrected. Uh in fact if you see the weekly chart also it has come towards a make or break levels of 5,000.
So uh 5,000 should be taken as a stop-loss and short-term view would be hold for a target of 52 to 5300.
>> Got that view. But it's now time for the rapid fire round in this edition of ask profit where shali as well as gorang you know the drill. Keep your answers as short as possible. The first question coming in on Ashokand Sanjay from Bangalore wants to know if it's a good time to enter. Gorang, any view?
>> Buy for long-term.
>> Okay. The next line is on Kalyan Jul at the levels of 373. Continue to hold for the next 2 to 3 years. Gorang >> would prefer Titan. No coverage on Kalyan.
>> Uh Romesh from Bangalore is holding Pilite at 1480 Vali. Should he continue to hold is his question.
Well, so it's uh 1452 right now. Keep a stop loss of 1420 and look for a target of 1500.
>> Okay. 500 shares of Kotak Mandra Bank is what Ram from Chennai has bought at the levels of 368. A long-term outlook on this one. Goran need to hold for long-term and if you get an opportunity on lower side you can add as well.
>> The next question coming in on Shiran Finance. Vishali. Our viewers bought shares at 954. Um is it a good time to still continue to hold the stock?
Yes, expect a bounce from here.
>> Okay. Rail bought at the levels of 348.
Ram from Chennai is holding around 100 shares. Uh continue to hold for the next 6 months.
>> So as I said expecting a bounce in the real sector. So yes.
>> Got it. The the next question is on coach and shipyard bought at 1715 Vali by a viewer Sudepto. He wants to know what should he do with his 75 shares.
>> Continue holding if time is not a problem. Continue holding. Look for targets of 1,800 to 2,000.
>> Okay. HFCL 100 shares is what Sriam Raurin from Chennai bought at the levels of 53 since June 21. The stock is currently trading at 195. From a long-term perspective, Gorang, any view continue to hold.
>> Uh my man no coverage. I'll get a pass.
>> Shali any view.
>> So uh technical target is 200. So we are suggesting to the book part >> on uh Sep from Hyderabad has bought into Dalmia Bharat Gorang at 1880 and he's holding 100 shares wants a fundamental view. I think the quarter four results were slightly weaker but any view >> the the numbers were weak uh punit no doubt about that but yeah given the benefit of lower levels from where bbot he can hold on to whatever he has he can add as well from long pandan bank 600 shares bought the levels of 190 continue to hold vari for near 220 >> got it uh the next question is from um you know on uh uh bought at uh 237 by nit so he's in deep losses on this counter. Uh he wants to know if he should stick stay on Vshali or average down. What would you recommend?
>> So for now hold with stop loss 118. Uh average out at around 135 145 once you get those shares.
>> Okay. Kitex Gins is the next one.
Krishna Prasad from Hyderabad bought 400 shares at the levels of 230. Uh now it's around 160 I believe. Let's try to pull that up. 160 correct. Um what should he do? Vali on the charts. Should he book his losses or continue to hold for recovery?
>> No, not in a hurry. Add more with stop loss of 150. This can go towards 192. H.
The next question coming in now, it's on Bharat Electronics bought at 430.
But uh before we do that, let's just cut into uh SBI chairman CS seti at the state conference.
>> Demand is there. I I think a lot of people have approached us. I don't have the numbers right away, but I think there's a good demand coming. any particular sectors that are seeing more demand. So I think across SMMES across SMMES predominantly SMMES who are taking the loans no I'm not aware I'm not aware of what is the impact that you're seeing on >> no currently currently as we mentioned I think we have not had any major impact on asset quality so far and we have to be watchful in terms of the linger pardon >> or demand And the demand of credit credit demand seems to be robust and when compared to the year on year end growth we are seeing the growth continues to be uh robust across the segments. So we have not seen any demand constraint at this juncture but we we'll have to see how the lingering impact of the list is action acquisition financing you were in talks with Japanese lenders what's the update >> any possibility with >> so we we we work with all all foreign banks and Indian banks in terms of creating that uh uh you know collaboration for M&A financing we did a couple of deals together already so we are working on many other assessing any propos thousands for >> Yes. Yes. We already have. We have done we've done one already and we first of all we put the system uh and also uh the team in place. The team is working now and we have done one transaction we are doing another one and uh I I'm sure that I think we'll play an important role. I think let's not get into the details.
>> What are your expectations from the RBM monetary policy also especially in the context of how crude has behaved how currencies behaved and >> so the expectations I think broadly the market expects that there could be a rate pause at this jure growth inflation dynamics are more important I think uh uh a pause will definitely help us to stabilize in terms of uh ensuring that the smooth growth rates are achieved. So SBI AMC is there a timeline yet for the IPO?
>> We hope to do sometime during this year >> we just waiting for the regulatory approvals >> calendar year.
>> Are you close to filing the uh >> we have already filed the DRSP so we are waiting for the yes we have filed the DRSP then would SBI general also follow next?
>> Yeah yeah yeah we'll see we'll see that ambassador expect on the US. Got it.
Well, and you know that important question there by our colleague Nimmed there on the on the SBI AMC IPO as well as on the general one of course will be something to watch but the DRHP file as CST spoke about as well. But let's take a very quick break. We'll resume all the questions on the other side with our guests.
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>> And the award goes to >> Hello and welcome back 20 Prophet.
You're watching Ask Profit and if you haven't already, do start sending in your queries on the numbers that are flashing on the top of screen. Now we had CS30 of course speaking to our reporter Nimit there as well at the city conference and we also have a query now on the stock. Koshik from Buda is holding on to 20 shares of SBI. He's bought it at 1,50 and wants to know if he should continue to hold for the long term as well or no.
U Gorang you know since he's bought it at,50 first a view on the stock and second if it's a good time to buy more at this point of time.
So Punit as a disclosure again we've been positive on SBI and SBI happens to be one of the largest bankers to the nation as we all know it Punit and uh slight bit of disappointment in the fourth quarter numbers in terms of treasury income if I remember and recollect right and because of that there was a little bit of punishment on the stock there was sell pressure and sell pressure continues because the markets are also down and out hold on to it and put it these are the corrections which actually should excite long-term investors to nibble into strong fundamentals stocks from a long-term point of view. Hold on. And if you have investable amount, you can add an average as well.
>> Okay. All right. Uh I think we've got Aruna calling us from Vijayad. Aruna, a very good morning to you. Go ahead, ask your question.
>> Hi Aruna, can you hear me? Okay, I think we seem to have lost the caller, but we do have her query. Uh it's on Vima Labs.
She's bought shares at the levels of 620. Uh Vali any view on the charts for Vima Labs?
>> I think the stock has shown a good erosion and now signs of reversal. So I would say start buying the stock with support of 450 and near-term target we looking at 550.
>> Got that view. The next one coming in now it's on it's from Royston from Maharashtra and he's holding on to or actually wants to actually buy RECC for the long term and what's the view? uh Gorang any coverage either on RC or PFC of course the merger is impending uh but any view on either of those stocks >> so PIT uh while we used to be positive on both but since our target price were in place uh we've not gone ahead with our uh coverage uh any longer no coverage but yeah we remain extremely positive on the sector that is power power transmission and distribution and power equipments and both these are well definfined players and there is a news I believe honorable finance minister said about merger of both these companies. Uh but yeah, no covers so no specific covers.
>> The next one is on Bajage Housing Finance. Our viewer Ques from Andhra Pradesh is holding 120 shares at the levels of 143 wants to know uh as to whether he can continue to hold this counter further or book his losses.
Vshali any view?
>> Well, I would say I don't have much of a data. Uh Gorang would be the better person to talk. Gorang any view on this one? Uh because from 143 it's now come to 83.
>> Yeah, I think this has been a drag and an underperformer. Uh Mahima, but the only problem happen I mean we have remain positive on the entire HFC that is housing finance companies. Mahima two recommendations are there LIC housing finance and canin homes. Um despite of almost a decade after uh which we saw an IPO coming from the group that is Baj uh the stock is still under pressure. I believe it is below the IPO price as well. Correct me if I'm wrong. So if you want a preference uh LIC housing and cannon homes are better options.
>> Got it. Gorang and uh yeah it's a it's been a very very disappointing ride.
recovered from those lows of 77 78 odd um climbed to 90 then back again at these levels of 84 and has been under pressure as well but uh the next query coming in now it's uh unfortunate on another disappointing you know stock performance post listing and that's on ITC hotels now our viewer Kumar Suman from Kolkata is holding shares at 182 wants to know if he should average out now and continue to hold for the long term Gorang any coverage on this stock what would you recommend?
So ITC uh was in the news for all the wrong reasons unfortunately uh because of the not only ITC but all these companies like VST and of course Godfrey Phillips Pune because of the price hike then once again we had price hike coming in for the smaller length of cigarettes. uh we remain positive on ITC from a long-term point of view the stock got adjusted for dividend if I'm not mistaken Punit recently last week it was if I'm not mistaken and we are optimistic in the sense that other than having tobacco tobacco products and cigarette business ITC's got couple of other businesses also while the negative overhang is for companies like got Philips and VST because of only focus business on tobacco products >> long-term continue to hold ITC >> also Gorang actually the query was more on ITC hotels so if you have any view on that as well?
>> So hotel sector we remain positive but on ITC hotels we don't have a coverage.
Indians hotel Indian hotel is something that we are positive on but uh there are a lot of capeex punit that are lined up by various hotel companies whether it is ITC whether it is Indian hotels whether it is chalet whether it is Taj GVK or whether it is Lemonry uh we expect tourism to pick up on all fronts to a great extent. All right. Uh so that's the view coming on the entire hotel space. The next one that we have uh is on this is from Nikka from Pune asking about geo finance. Uh she's holding 550 shares with drivers of 263 that she's kept from a long-term perspective whether she can continue to hold this or not. uh Gora >> so geo finance again uh maya my sense what I have observed since the time this got this company got hyped off and listed as a separate tent between 200 and 220 there are lot of uh uh large investors uh who are looking at that and there's been couple of times in the past history since this company got listed it goes to 200 220 uh consolidates over there and then bounces back to about 275 280 300 100 plus levels 350 is the target from a long-term point of view.
Continue to hold on. If you got in at higher levels, you can add average as well.
>> Got that view Gorang. But uh let's go across and take another caller now from Hyderabad. And Murli has a stock query for us. Muri, good morning. Welcome to the show. What's your query?
>> Yeah, good morning. Yeah, good morning.
Good morning to all the panelists and you both. I have a query on Sarmma SGS.
>> Uh-huh. I have right now about 20 shares at an average of 606.
>> Okay.
>> I sold about 20 shares and it reached,000 US.
>> Okay.
>> So, should I hold the remaining for another one year or so? I've been holding it for the last 3 years.
>> Well, Miy firstly many congratulations.
You got it at a very good price. So, you you looked at the fundamentals or the technicals for SMISGS when you bought into it. uh I looked at both and the company and the fundamentals of it though it went into negative at times but I hold it on assuming that it's a good company and it would bounce back >> well most certainly it did mly and I think it went down to 425 since then what a move for this counter in the last 12 months also as stock has doubled but let me get firstly a view from Vali vehali because you know you've seen rank outperformance from curjs especially at a time when the EMS sector is under consolidation any view on the charts Oh yes. Uh I think it's a very good pick and uh it's doing very well. It should continue to do well. Even the monthly charts they show a good upward move. So I would say please hold uh no harm booking partial profit but the rest one can hold for a target of around 1250 uh 2300 please.
>> All right. Okay. Uh we've got a caller Sema who's calling us from Hyderabad.
Sema away. Good morning to you. Go ahead ask a question.
Um hi uh I'd like to add the NDPC and power grid uh stocks. So can I uh know about uh them like um yeah >> okay SMA got your question um any time period that you're looking at to add both of these counters >> shortterm >> shortterm all right okay then I'll take this up with Vali where are the charts more attractive is it NTPC or power grid >> well I would say right now market is showing some signs of weakness so I would not really uh advise to trade but I would say If you have to, I think power grid is showing more stability. Uh 275 should be your stop loss and can go for this stock to look for a target of 295 to 300.
>> Got that view. Now it's a stock we haven't discussed too much. KMC Specialty Hospital, but the last one-year chart has been very strong for this one. Ankit from Mumbai is actually holding shares at almost 87 rupees per share and holding 500 of those almost.
So he's in the profits. Uh Vali, I don't know if you track this. He wants a long-term view but but I'm guessing it's it's a very small company for Gorang to track but any view firstly on the charts Vali for KMC.
>> Sorry I don't have this chart either.
>> Uh Gorang I'm I'm guessing that too small right to to cover at this point of time if not anything that you like in the hospital sector.
Uh yeah it happens to be a very small company Punit no specific coverage on this one but the healthcare sector Punit and I would add one more dimension to this particular sector and that is the ongoing geopolitical situation and the uh boil and crude oil prices energy prices hospitals healthcare uh to certain extent it uh power generation uh remains insulated from the external shocks we have four investment ideas in the healthcare category Apollo hospitals, Naran, Rodallaya, Fortis Healthcare and Max Healthcare. Uh and on the numbers front other than Max Healthcare, Punit other three delivered fantastic set of numbers but we remain positive on these three four names.
>> Okay. Uh the next question that we have is on Bat Dynamics. Uh Nalamutu from Chennai is asking uh about this particular counter. is holding around 120 shares an average price of I think uh 800 for the last 4 years and he wants to know as to what should be the perspective from a long-term uh view. Uh Goran I'll stick with you for Bat Dynamics. What's the view like?
>> So Mahima again you know we remain positive on the sector first of all no specific comments on Bat Dynamics since we don't have a coverage but let me give an insight of the coverages that we have uh Barat Electronics Limited Mazgow Docs and MTA Technologies. These are the four three names on which we are covering.
Then of course to one more private player that is L&T uh bar and my view personal view is Mima that have 3 to five year time horizon because these companies which are uh actively participating in uh defense uh they take time to execute the order book because they are complex engineering high technology precise products you can't afford to go wrong and you have to make a prototype then you have to get it through various tests and then the mass scale production starts. So remain positive on the defense. Uh Bar Dynamics uh happens to be one of the strongest player in the defense but no specific comments.
>> Got that view Gorang but let's go across take another caller now and Vinod has a stock query for us. Vinod very good morning to you. What's your query?
>> Yeah good morning. Uh I I I'm looking for a stock advice on Techno Electric and Rajesh Power which both are power transmission EPC contracting companies.
>> I'm looking for a 5 to 7 years horizon preferably through a SIP route.
>> Got it. Vod let me let me try and put those to Gorang. Gorang Techno Electric I think you know we saw pressure post quarter 4 results but any view on techno electric or Rajes power for the long term >> I give it a pass no coverage >> uh Vali on techno electric specifically if you if you track the charts because saw that massive 10% down post results is there any momentum getting formed now on the charts >> if you're talking about techno electric well there's nothing really happening it's just consolidating since a very long time it is just having a range of 950 to uh 1350. So follow these levels.
Either way is the decisive move. Give give you a clarity.
>> All right. The next one that we have is from Amit who is writing us from Mumbai.
He's holding thousand shares of Innocent Bank at the levels of 1380. He wants to know whether he'll ever be able to reach his cost price or not. And his his I mean query is valid also right Gorang.
um he's been a patient investor sitting on a lack of a loss of almost 5 lakh rupees. What should he do?
>> So first advice is Ba that don't let your capital erode >> exactly >> 60 70%. Because then the recovery of your capital itself becomes a big question mark. Forget about making profit on your investments.
>> Having said that there are some news items recently which has actually played an overhang on Indust Bank. Uh but we have a hold rating. uh I dare not say that he can average over here but yeah in case if he's got investable amount then he can average some portion since he got in at 1300 plus and the stock is trading at about 880 8.90 odd levels uh hold an average it may take a longer time patience will possibly pay off in terms of either narrowing your losses depending upon the quantity you average or getting you a little bit of profit uh I I don't know if Vali has a view on Got it Gorang. But next question coming in now it's on Supria Life Science.
There's been another counter uh that was locked in upper circuit post results and our viewer Mahesh actually holds shares at 678. So he's currently sitting on a profit holding 15 shares. Let's look at the one week or the one month chart and and then you had that market correction over the last couple of days. So stock also tanked 10%. This has been volatile to say the least in this week up 13% and you saw that big jump post results at the end of last week and then that down tick yet again but Vashali you know it's performed well in the last 1 month. Uh would you recommend Mahes to book profits? He's bought at 678 >> I would say. So uh book partial profit because we've seen a good oneway run up but u and if you're not in a hurry I think follow a strict stop loss of 850 because this stock the way it has consolidated can show a new round of momentum and perhaps reh retest the previous high. So 850 should be your stop loss and continue holding.
>> Okay. All right. Uh the next one uh that we have is from Sita who's writing us from Delhi. She says she wants to invest three lakhs rupees in ICICI AMC and wants a short-term view at a two months view on this particular counter. Vali this question is specifically for you.
>> So first of all uh well if you want to just trade then I think follow uh strict rules uh and I'll just give you the levels.
>> Yes. So currently I think it is at 327 uh 0 and I think keep a stop loss of 3150 2 months horizon can see a target of say 36 3700 >> got that viewer Shali but let's go across take another call now from Telangana and Anil has a stock query for us anil good morning welcome to the show what's your query >> very good morning everybody sir thanks for connecting this call so my query about I purchased uh Vanta shares 1,000 rupees at the market price was 354.60,000 shares.
>> Okay.
>> So can we can I expect 370 380 next coming 1 month or 2 months?
>> Uh got it. Vanta Vali you know we've seen that de merger and hence the price correction but post that uh there's still a lot of investor interest right on this one. Uh should he continue to hold should Anil continue to hold his shares at 364? What's your view? So I think uh there's nothing wrong with this stock. We are seeing some corrective move and some profit booking. So if short-term is the view then hold with a stop loss of 320. Uh if these levels break then there could be a pro possibility of further profit booking coming to 300 level. So 320 should be the final uh support stop loss and continue holding.
>> All right. The next one that we have is on MCX. Anjali from Kochi wants to know the short-term target on this one. No chari.
>> So MCX currently at 2818. I think it is uh also into a profit booking. The near-term I think it can go towards 2600 levels.
>> Uh the next question coming in now is from Wenut from Chennai and he's holding on to LNT Finance which he's bought into it at 270 and holding about 100 shares here. Uh and he's asking if he should continue to hold this counter uh buy more or sell out. Gorang any coverage on LNT finance? I think you gave a a view on some housing finance companies that you hold but any specific view on LNT finance?
>> Sure. So we do have a positive coverage and Punita my sense is that despite of the headwinds and the concern in the near term as far as the entire BFSA segment is concerned of course uh there's also opinion that the credit policy that is due this week uh there's going to be a status quo. Let's wait and watch what the governor has in mind and what is recommended by the MPC committee. But on LNT, yeah, we do have a positive coverage and uh my sense is that after hiving off certain businesses which were not productive and did not contribute to a great extent, the balance sheet has become much leaner and cleaner. The long-term continue to hold L&T Finance.
>> All right. Okay. The next one is on Baji Amines. Niha from Bengalur is holding 30 shares at the levels of 1481. uh wants to target stop-loss from a three months perspective. Valari uh yesterday's gain and today's gain combined together it's gained around that 20% mark and um this is on account of the price hikes that were um that it saw right so um any view on the charts do you think there's more steam left >> I would say so if 3 months is the horizon in fact even on a weekly chart it's showing good bullish candle right now though for the near-term we have seen a good runup already coming in so I would say continue holding But the stop loss comes at 1,600. So that's your call as to would you want to hold with such a low stop loss. Uh but I think the projected targets for 2 to 3 months I won't be surprised if this goes to 2400 to 2600. So stock accordingly >> got that view. So definitely you know we we put out the story yesterday in India market close about what's happening in the yin space as well. So uh probably that's what's leading the momentum there. But uh next question is from Batu from Hyderabad and he's holding on to Escorts which he's bought at 2970.
Now he's holding on to 253 shares. But Gorang very interestingly though we've seen that last year was a record year for for you know the tractor industry crossing that 1 million sales mark for the industry. But uh the the April and May numbers are also not too bad right?
What would you recommend here if if you have a direct view on escorts or what do you recommend for but to do?
>> He's got a nice name.
>> That's right. Took it twice.
>> So I believe Scott Kota is uh is what the stock we are talking about. Uh and the entire uh uh tractor earth moving equipments farm and agri equipments which escorts kubert into u excited about it. Yeah. I mean deficit monoon may create a little bit of headwinds in the immediate short to medium-term but uh if you are a long-term investor continue to hold on we have a buy coverage as a disclosure so and if you got in at higher level if you have investable amount you can continue to add and stay invested target price very attractive uh and the downside looks protected and targets are somewhere close to about 3,800 >> okay wow 3,800 targets for escorts cube but uh that's what Gorang is predicting but u you know let's start a rapid fire round and um Gorang and Vari you both know the drill the first question that we have is from Vajay who's writing us from Bengaluru asking about Aeroflex Industries he's bought at the level of 345,000 shares is what he's holding on the charts >> Aeroflex Industries >> Aeroflex yes so right now it is showing some momentum it can go towards 460 hold >> got on on sand Tech Nam from Jaipur is holding shares at 441 Gorang we had the management come and say that they're expecting FI27 to be one of their best years any view on the stock or anything that you like in the auto conference space now >> so yeah I mean this is a very strong player Punit no specific coverage since we don't have one but we like Uno Minda CI Automotive uh JK tire Apollo tire uh Bal Krishna Industries is aided industries mobile.
>> All right, the next one is on kaiakil from Pune is holding 60 shares bought at the level of 163 from a 2-year perspective. Continue to hold a lake. Yeah, I mean paint happens to be one of the the sectors which are affected by the ongoing geopolitics.
Long-term continue to hold via the couch.
>> Uh sign DM bought at 605 by Bhaskar Vali wants to know if what should he do with his 80 shares now.
>> Currently 455 hold look for a target of 500 520.
>> KC International from a long-term perspective is it a good time to enter?
Sor wants to know this. Gorang >> so we are positive on KC international may the only problem was the numbers were a disaster let's be very honest to ourselves but long-term being a small to midcap cap goods engineering play we remain positive continue to hold and add as well >> gotang on NTBC green Dr. Ravi Shanka is holding shares at 98. Wants to know Vshali if he should exit now or continue to hold. I know it's a very recent listing but any view keep a stop loss of 95 and hold because this can go towards 1201 130.
>> Okay. Bat electronics for the levels of 430. Uh can I continue to hold? Prem from Hyderabad is asking why Shi >> I think keep a stop loss because near-term is a bit bearish. So keep a stop loss of 400. Uh next one's from Nikkit from Bangalore. He wants to know if it's the right time to buy into Ather Energy. What would you recommend? Vali has seen a very strong run up.
>> Uh buying dip >> Jupiter wagons a 2-year plus view from a long-term perspective. Ashish from Delhi wants to know Gorang.
>> Well, this also happens to be a play in the Indian railways uh and has recently secured orders. Uh no specific comments, no coverage. Uh Rajes from Hyderabad wants to invest in an auto answer company. I think Gorang you gave quite a bunch of a list but his question is also on sanser engineering if it's on your radar.
>> Uh not on the radar but happens to be a decent player in the auto ancillary pack.
>> Okay. Bank of India 100 shares bought the levels of 91. Moody from Hyderabad wants to know from a long-term perspective is this a good hold? Kora >> uh we have a positive coverage on Bank of India continue to hold >> on Senko Vali how do the charts look right now is what Ja from Bangalore is asking gold that is 343 nothing happening for now uh it needs to cross 360 to show some uh strength networks bought at the level of 48120 shares what's the short-term view on this one vadi >> so this has shown good momentum and And this can go towards I think 600 for short-term perspective >> on Wellspan living also shali our viewers bought sh 127 asking if it's a good time to book out right now uh certainly some profits what would you recommend >> so well if time is not a problem continue holding this can go towards 160 but also hold with a stop loss of 135 and if it's a shortterm period then do >> got it well uh well that was um you the last query on this edition of rapid fire. Gorang as well as Vishali, thanks so much for helping us solve a lot of queries today. 60 of those that we have across talks and spaces. So, thanks so much for your inputs today. But viewers uh out of time on this edition of the store. Stay tuned. A lot more action on the other side and we'll see you at 2 p.m. for ask profit the afternoon edition.
Investments in specialized investment fund involves relatively higher risk including potential loss of capital, liquidity risk and market volatility.
Please read all investment strategy related documents carefully before making the investment decision.
Economy, business, world, technology.
Noise filtered, numbers decoded.
Insights that rewire your world view.
From governance to growth, we connect the dots. Your daily edge, your global advantage. India business report with me, Gori Diddi. Week nights on NTV Profit.
Investments in specialized investment fund involves relatively higher risk including potential loss of capital, liquidity risk and market volatility.
Please read all investment strategy related documents carefully before making the investment decision.
>> The news since when do we do script point?
Picture this. The biggest stage, flood lights, 4K, the works. Where's the hook? There's going to be celebrities and guaranteed eyeballs. Where's the hook? Think about this. Front page advertisements and holdings, bro.
Where's the hook? Crossplatform digital first virality. Without a hook, no way.
The message is clear. It's 2026. You got to be real in a world of real. You got to be original in a world where everything seems generated. That's it.
That's what we're looking for. The best campaigns, the hottest trends, the smartest brand moves on our new show.
But wait, what do we call it? The hook.
Hi, I'm Tamana. Watch me on NDTV Profit where I break down the day's biggest business stories. What happened? why it matters and what it means for your money.
>> Hi, I'm Ned Sha. Watch me on NDTV Profit for the most incisive market intelligence and meaningful corporate conversations.
And I'm Alex Matthew. Markets, mutual funds, insurance, personal finance. I help you cut through the noise and make smarter financial choices. And here's where you can watch us.
When the headlines move fast, perspective matters.
On editors cut, our editors come together with experts to distill the week's information plates into clear perspective.
down the stories shaping the world from markets and the economy to global conflicts and what lies ahead. This is where experience meets inside.
Hello and welcome to KYC. I'm Shahhat Dubet and you are watching NDTV Profit.
This is the show where I get to the hottest companies, what's the story behind it and interestingly will there be any alpha made or not. So let's start with the company in focus today and that would be definitely there but I'll give you some hints try to guess it. It's India's third largest manufacturer of magnetic winding wires. And if you look at the export angle also that's also very strong company delivered with a very strong operational numbers and it was recently listed also. Let's see the date what's there. Of course it's backed by Malabar Investments as well. Try to guess the company. This was listed on December 23rd, 2025 near the Christmas day period. Interesting. But the stock has given a solid returns up 113% stock IPO price stock returns. Which stock is this? The stock in focus is KH International. The company's coming for the first time in KYC and we'll try to decode what this company is all about. What's the outlook ahead and why did the numbers come so strong in Q4. But a lot of questions are there. Let's try to answer them one by one. Why are we calling this company strong growth outlook for FI2728 will this sustain because four quarter numbers were strong and that is where we'd like to see the momentum in this counter. Also the second question the views on exports and specialized wire segment that management has explicitly stated in their press release that these are the growth levers. Let's try to understand more about the demand trends in the client confidence especially on the client onboarding front and also how the raw material prices are jumping and is there any pass through mechanism because the company definitely has a lot of raw materials tied up to metals and minerals. The utilization numbers of the factory and the capex plants. What are the numbers looking like for the next two odd years? Also we'll be looking at the future product mix as the company is pushing towards the value added segment.
Apart from this another important question is is there any execution risk because monsoon is nearby in their industry there is at times execution risk or lumpiness as well. And to explain this entire process we'll have Rajes Kgre. He's the MD at KSH International where we'll ask a lot of questions for Rajes.
But let's try to understand the company first. The company first and foremost I would like to point out two important portions. The company was founded 1981. It's India's third largest manufacturer of magnetic winding power and also the largest exporter. So definitely their revenue mix is pretty interesting. They provide ultra precision special and standard magnet winding wires to OEM. So that is something to watch out for. But where does the wire go? It's in the power, renewables, railways, motors for the EV and the ice internal combustion engine segment. So they are catering to a lot of industries. Also for industrial there is home appliances, compressors and refrigerators as well where most of their wiring solutions are there. Now they have four manufacturing facilities which are located in Maharashtra. Apart from this also the key factor to watch out for is the total annual capacity.
Look at that. It's around 43,445 million tons peranom. So that is something we'll be watching out for. And interestingly 2.45% stake is held by Malabar Investments.
70% capacity utilization is there in the fourth quarter. Also, let's look at the other key triggers for the stock. FI26 AIDA ton stood at 67,625.
Compare that with the numbers last year.
It was 52,356 rupees per share. Also, let's look at the segmental revenue mix. The specialized segment that is still there.
value added margin is higher it's around 75% of the margins compare that it's around 25% for this standard wires which we are talking about apart from this revenue mix the key clients very big names are there BHL CG power Hitachi energy Bat Biji ABB Bosch so you can say technically it is a power ancillary company and this is why the entire sector has been seeing a lot of strong you could say uh you know tailwinds and it's an approved supplier to power grade NTPC NPCIL and RDCSO. So definitely the company's credentials are pretty strong.
But how was the fourth quarter? The first question is strong volume growth coming in and the mix is also good. A higher copper prices were also there. So we need to understand what's the pass through mechanism for them. The volumes increased by 29% on a year-on-year basis. So that is showing strength.
Apart from the volumes also there's specialized magnet winding wires that's the revenue going up by 103%. And if you look at the exports that has also gone up by more than 92%.
Apart from this the Q4 performances what's working for the stock more reasons than what's not working strong growth outlook for the exports and the specialized wires your management and apart from this the improvement is coming in the working capital ratios by a little number of days but nevertheless it's very strong debt equity ratio that has healthily come down of course post the IPO they've used that to reduce the debt it stands at 39x also apart from this the strong customer confidence has come in especially during these uncertain times the customer onboarding has been strong that's what the management had stated so definitely this looks like a positive point but what's not working H1 FI27 might be impacted due to rising cost and this is for the entire industry pricing pass through the mechanism that needs to be seen how the company's able to do it because let's let's be honest March quarter hasn't taken the major hits because every situation happened at the last week of March. Execution risk of large power projects remains a key risk.
So these are the reasons where you know my entire analysis is coming in and the runup which has happened from the IPO because of that the valuations may not be reasonable for right now. But uh let's talk about the rating parameter.
What do we want to give to the company but before that let's give in the total numbers to actually check out. This includes income statement, balance sheet, cash flow and of course the ROC roe numbers also for the company. I've also taken the shareholding pattern and the street credit but remember the company was listed just last year on December 23. So the data is quite less operational parameters I've taken in terms of valuations but I have flagged that the valuations are not cheap for the stock and the outlook ahead. what are the numbers or what is the company expecting going ahead but let's start with the first one that one is your income statement and look at that growth last 3 years CAGGR the stock has been going more than 50% up perhaps it's justifying its premium valuation right now 50 63% of topline and operational growth in the 3 years CAGR numbers even the Q Q4 numbers if you look at it they also have shown strength If you could just pull out the key Q4 numbers to show what the growth is on a year-on-year basis you be it revenue AIDA or net profit most of them have doubled up the top line and the bottom line let's have a look on the margins what has happened and I feel margins has taken a little bit of hit it was going comfortably above that 6% mark but now it's at 5.5%.
So we'll try to understand why the margin pressure and will this continue going ahead or not. But net net I could say this is a strong thumbs up when it comes to the income statement. Up next is balance sheet. I mentioned to you earlier that the debt levels are on the lower side and that's what I'm talking about. The balance sheet has done well.
The cash levels have gone up. Look at that. It's around 84 cr rupees and net worth seems good as well. So all in all a good balance sheet management. So I'm going to give this a thumbs up as well.
So we spoke about income statement. We spoke about balance sheet. Let's look at cash flow. Is there any lumpiness in this business model or this just a neutral way of looking at things? And yes, things have improved. The AIDA number has improved and the company has turned net cash flow positive. But there is lumpiness in this industry. And I want to be fair in my rating. So I'm going to give this a neutral rating for the cash flow segment. Let's pull out the return ratios and see what happens.
And largely the ROC numbers is something to track. It's around 13%. It went at a peak of 17%. Slight cool off at 16% but nevertheless it's a 15% plus ROE business return ratio. Same story happens here for the ROE numbers also.
It's comfortably at the 20% mark. So net net it's a very solid return ratios for a business model like that. But little bit of moderation has come. So that is where a little bit of question comes for me going ahead. So I'm going to give this a neutral rating. Okay. So this is a pretty much interesting. We'll just take a quick break. Out of the break we'll be coming back with more details.
Guess who technology GTRI SDMT investments in specialized investment fund involves relatively higher risk including potential loss of capital, liquidity risk and market volatility.
Please read all investment strategy related documents carefully before making the investment decision.
Economy, business, world, technology, noise filtered, numbers decoded.
Insights that rewire your world view.
From governance to growth, we connect the dots. Your daily edge, your global advantage. India business reports with me, Gori Di. Week nights on NTV Profit.
Investments in specialized investment fund involves relatively higher risk including potential loss of capital, liquidity risk and market volatility.
Please read all investment strategy related documents carefully before making the investment decision.
>> The news since when do we do scripts? Fair point.
Picture this. The biggest stage, flood lights, 4K, the works. Where's the hook? There's going to be celebrities and guaranteed eyeballs. Where's the hook? Think about this. Front page advertisements and holdings, bro.
Where's the hook? Crossplatform digital first virality. Without a hook, no way.
The message is clear. It's 2026. You got to be real in a world of real. You got to be original in a world where everything seems generated. That's it.
That's what we're looking for. The best campaign, the hottest trends, the smartest brand moves on our new show.
But wait, what do we call it? The hook.
Hi, I'm Tamana. Watch me on NDTV Profit where I break down the day's biggest business stories. What happened? Why it matters and what it means for your money.
>> Hi, I'm Nidat Sha. Watch me on NDTV Profit for the most incisive market intelligence and meaningful corporate conversations.
And I'm Alex Matthew. Markets, mutual funds, insurance, personal finance. I help you cut through the noise and make smarter financial choices. And here's where you can watch us.
When the headlines move fast, perspective matters on editors.
Welcome back to KYC and of course we are talking about the KYC rating parameters and let's go on to the next one that is the shareholding segment. Uh of course largely the promoter stake has been you could say neutral around 75 odd% but one thing which I liked was the FID they have increased the stake partially from 4% to 5% for FIS and for DIS this number is around 13 to 14 odd percent. So that's pretty interesting as well. So I'm going to give this a thumbs up as well. Also in the street trade we are having the stock's reaction from the IPO price the stock is up 113% and look at that from the listing price the stock also jumps 121%. So the stock has made money if you have invested in the company or even after that but let's look at the operational parameters what is there I have taken a bit per turn and sales volume per turn and look at that the operational numbers are pretty strong and a good jump both YI basis as well as a sequential basis so I'm going to give this a thumbs up as well let's talk about the outlook how things pan out and largely you need to take this thing with a pinch of salt the company wants to exit FI20 27 with an installed capacity of almost 59,000 million tons.
Good execution momentum is something which they have spoken about and the increased demand for export products and the special segment in the new countries is something which they are looking out for. Now they have signed up new domestic OEM customers for standard wire products and also diversifying the business to deliver to sorry to leverage the new growth market. So it's a neutral rating right now because of uncertainty coming in. But let's try to recap what are the important KYC ratings coming in.
Income statement balance sheet has been quite strong. On the other hand, the street and shareholding if you look at it largely the stock has given good returns post IPO as well. Operational parameters have been strong and so has the interest amongst the institutions.
So net net on the higher side of the average earnings which I give in the KYC segment, the company gets 6.5 out of eight. So that is a really soft
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