In the current crypto market, recovery is selective rather than broad-based, with revenue-generating projects like Circle (stablecoin) and Morpho (DeFi) outperforming while many altcoins remain dormant; investors should focus on tokens with tangible business models and revenue streams rather than pure hype, and maintain strict risk management with clear invalidation levels to protect capital during market uncertainty.
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Bitcoin un summer rallye à l'horizon ? WEN Morning Live 228Added:
Smart [music] [music] [music] [music] the penguin always cool on the ice with Buty the bee. We're creating a buzz, we 're set up for a live morning [music] show. We decipher the news and the charts. We beat the b's with the god cando. We have long pumps. We don't make [music] for ourselves on One Morning Live. We yawn, we are apps. We're live. We're live, we're live. Yeah. Butine les [musique] news toujours à l’oeil. Smart analyzes trains that are never lost. We inherit the cheap coins, we search for the moon with our diamonds. We're going to touch the moon. Smart. [music] We're beating the [music] god candle blows. We have long ones, we don't get used to it. We [music] candlelight spree on live. On le on est des [music] on est live, on est live. Yeah, the [music] makes waves but we stay that way. We say we're always in the game when we live our dreams.
[singing] It's smart [music] live. We're live, we don't do live morning [music] live GM and welcome to W TV.
Yeah [music] smart the penguin always cool on the ice and but the bee we take stock we are in place on W TV it starts it's that I need a hot coffee on the way I take butier we swarm [music] at the studios every morning we deliver the news it analyzes your favorite cryptos [music] it's and the next levels on TV we trace while he scrolls Twitter every morning it's a strike of the most surgical a missile lands in your morning routine pure content in a shaky world And good GMGM the team. Welcome, welcome to this format of Tuesday, May 26th, the 228th edition of W Morning Live, and we are so back. The sun is back.
Wallets finally recognize the color green. So all of them, this might be preparing for a summer rally, or rather a summer rally. Uh, we're going to discuss all of this a little bit, we're going to go over three news items, we're going to take the temperature a little bit, see also how Boutinor is doing this good old Tuesday. I have my Buty, how are you? Well, listen, it's okay with the sun, we're not going to complain about the heat either. Finally, at least in France at the moment, but I have no doubt that in Mauritius, we are more or less in that same spirit. So, uh, no, how are you doing? Nice little weekend away from screens with friends, which means we're starting the week in top form. Calm. And you, did you have a weekend?
Excellent. And then as you were saying, well, we're going into winter now, but overall it suits me very well because it had been very, very hot for 6 months. Here, we're moving to a temperature, you see, 25-27°. Uh, which is very pleasant for being outdoors, for going out, for not being suffocated uh under the weight of the heat. And uh well, at the moment, well, the improvement in our portfolio allows us to maintain our lifestyle a little bit. So, we're not going to complain.
Life is good. You see, there have been some dark days this year, but right now, we're still in better days. And uh, the whole thing is going to be, it's going to be about talking a little bit about all of that today. It's going to be about talking about what's going on since I'm taking advantage of it, I'm drinking a little bit at the same time directly on screen but uh well it's bouncing, it's bouncing everywhere and we see comebacks that are happening on the artificial intelligence side which are quite solid. Uh [grunt] it's dramatic but it took the northern warrior to abdicate in order for us to get the all-season we were waiting for. Is that the moral of the story, or not? [laughs] I don't know, for now we're going to need a bit of perspective, but it's funny to see the phenomenon. Yeah, but I think it's more a case of unfortunate timing, but maybe it will bring him back to us. We do n't know if it's hard, do we?
I don't know. In any case, we should note that World Coin, which we talked about a week or two ago as one of the potential players who might have had a setup on Lia and is waking up. Well, it needs to be put into perspective; overall, when you look at it over a year, it's still relatively low. But perhaps an early sign of a little bit of momentum dynamism that is coming back on its side. There's Render who's also doing a really, really great job, and who, for his part, has been doing it since February 2nd. Yeah. is on a near small x 2 with a potential delivery possible towards 360 if it manages to maintain its pump sound a little. You can definitely feel a bit of a wake-up call, right? There was Z Cash, there was Hype last week. Well, this week they are calming down a little, but logically, they did what they did, we ca n't blame them.
They have performed quite well since March. You see, Z Cach is at X 3. [grunt] What's Hype at? It's in Luba almost x 3 too, I think, if I'm not mistaken. It bottomed $20 in January, almost three times over. So uh we're in a bit of a weird period because if you're selective enough, if you manage to get the right alts in your hands, you can still catch some pumps. Although let's not kid ourselves, you still have a huge part of the map that's asleep.
Oh yes, that's clear. It's clear. Right now, we're seeing a few that are starting to pop up. It will be interesting to see if it's the large-scale pumps that will bring the mass behind them, or small speculative pumps, in quotes.
But yeah, we're seeing things on Solana, there are the trenches, there are things that are waking up a little bit, the agentic projects on the base too, quite a lot of things at quite a lot of things at that level. So yeah, we have an ecosystem that has taken a good hit in recent months but is slowly starting to wake up. So after that it can be a wake-up, a one-off wake-up and so on, but it can also be a real wake-up which will happen mechanically at some point anyway, but there you go, it starts to stir here and there but it remains very selective. We're not at the point where, oh [ __ ], we wake up, everyone took 20% overnight, we're not there yet. There may still be some underdogs, but let's respect the pumps when we have the right tokens, right?
Yeah, the list of tokens that are kind of hot right now is this one, right? We see them on that day. the tokens that have of course performed well on BTC and it's Venice uh AI F render hype. There's Morpho, damn Morpho, I was just talking about him earlier, uh, because he did some crazy things graphically, but for now he's made a comeback like God, uh, World Coin and Neir, huh. So yeah, Li is still recovering from a serious flop, we'll see if it's sustainable. We have a little awakening, we have a little awakening of the Alt although indeed Stéphane what is holding us back a little bit is potentially also Ether against Bitcoin which uh is relatively down and hence the selectivity in fact a little bit at the moment since the DIFI apart from Morpho and therefore everything that revolves around Ethereum, is still very much asleep. Uh, but otherwise, yeah, the performance right now is still pretty good, but what about the " ai" side? GM, at least. Well, Stephan, welcome to the chat, make yourself at home. Yes!
I like Monser and of course Francoon. We'll be beating the bers with God Candles soon.
One day our jingle will be relevant.
[laughs] We'll wait as long as it takes.
Yeah, anyway I'm taking this opportunity to do a little self-promotion and highlight this good old newsletter once again. But guys, the plan from last week went relatively well so far. We maintained this important level since we effectively dumped around 74,500 something like that this weekend. Uh, we managed to hold this lot for now, to take it back, and it's true that we still feel a force, a force that is there, at least on the altcoin side, since there are some alts that didn't get wrecked as much during the fall, and even that are recovering very quickly, and for that we're thinking of good old NIR, you know. I wanted to get it on Saturday for $2. I had a target price of $2.
Uh, I got front run and so uh it's rare, I admit, I confess I fished but I did mobac a little later towards this region.
Uh, towards that region but with a small amount, but because I really feel that indeed, uh, I will show you on the charts, but there is a revival that can be a little more, a little more sustainable. In any case, if BTC is going to potentially reach around E90 or even 100k in the coming weeks.
In short, if you want to see where it's happening, it's in the newsletter.
Excuse me, Buti, I'm monopolizing the conversation a lot. Uh, feel free to bump into me. Um, what are we starting with today on the program?
No, well, we can start with two or three small news items. A couple of quick news items before going to see some cats.
And before I do, I'll leave you one, but I have one to go through if you don't mind. She's just too funny. Go ahead. So.
What is the a in 2026? We are recruiting 10 masturbation consultants. [laughs] $2000 a month now to test our new daily guided masturbation features and document the effects on stress, sleep and mood. [grunt] Uh, there you go, the guys have a job that should go to all our cryptobros. I think that's within the capabilities of our industry.
They did, in fact I got an email, they received your CV this morning, don't worry.
Yes, yes, yes, I hope so. I [laughs] got a leg up, I know a few slackers who got me a leg up. So [laughs] don't worry. Uh, we're good, we're good, we're good. Yes, I am indeed on the list of candidates.
[laughs] Lia creates jobs, it's a change of pace. Ah well clearly, clearly we are at the very beginning and very clever is the one who knows what will happen, how it will happen, frankly because there are many, many hypotheses on the table but we are starting to see it clearly, it is starting to create jobs, clearly starting to change paradigms. Then there are certain sectors which are quite in contact with SMEs and are starting to use AI, but it's true that everyone sees the potential of AI. Then when you see how some people use it, you say, damn, we're still not at the paradigm shift yet. Already prompte bien ton prompte bien ton chat GPT en quillemets but clearly Sachala you are absolutely right. Big big up to you by the way, my Sacha.
Okay, listen, we'll start, we'll start very gently. We're going to take a look at a couple of quick news items. Tac.
Okay, I'll do the same.
Yes, let's go. Hop hop. That's already a pleasure and it always puts a little bit of opium in quite a few of our bags, my dear Smart. [grunt] But ATH ATH stable coin on the market.
So the market cap of stablecoins is breaking its record, well we're talking about a whopping 322,324 billion here. So it's quite impressive, all things considered, because since 2025 we have nothing less than, well, that's x 2, x 2 in more than a year and a half. So it's true that we can say there may be a double paradigm, we can say damn the alts are dead and so on, the crypto ecosystem avoids it, it's full of scams and so on. When you see the price action of certain alts, you can say yes. But in the background, well, we have a blockchain, the blockchain which is being used more and more and more. We have ATHs for stable coins.
So this suggests that we are still far from being dead, but a market that is clearly changing compared to what we have known. But in any case, blockchain technology is far from dead and will be used more and more. So as much as we can, I understand that we are not bullish long term on quite a few altcoins, uh as for stablecoins, I think there is something which is starting to become quite clear, uh quite notable and well there you go so we avoid we will avoid missing the window.
We started to position ourselves, in particular, on Circle. You also made a tweet this weekend which was pretty good about One Dire Smart. I pre-selected it precisely. I wanted to because you Ah there you go but what a there damn but what a synchronicity what [laughs] incredible the world cup in 2 weeks everything damn we're bac dude.
[grunt] [laughs] Uh no but basically Circle is gradually changing the game we've seen in recent years with regard to the default stablecoin, since originally it was Tter that had a significant lead and we didn't see Circle catching up with it at one time, and yet little by little they started with Coinbase, they started to implement themselves everywhere and I would say that for the last year, what they're doing is just a masterclass, they already have very solid partners who are even outside our ecosystem, but we're thinking of Stripe which has a huge payment exit terminal for all online activities. Uh, and Circle has a rather privileged partnership via Coinbase on payment rails with Stripe, I'll come back to that.
IBKR is just a complex system in terms of institutional trading, well, not institutional, but uh, in any case, one of the best trading platforms, quite simply. Yeah, that's it, the best trading platform for retail, where there is still a huge amount of volume and size. Finally, that's where the big bosses of the game are, so to speak. Well, it's the same now, you can deposit but it's Circle that's taken DG. We are of course not forgetting our two great apps which are super trendy and growing and whose full potential we have not yet seen, but hyper liquid, polymket, well these are use cases which are still gaining more and more recognition. What makes the difference with these two apps is that they seek out people outside of our ecosystem. They bring you guys who weren't even into cryptos, which we didn't give a damn about, but who suddenly have the ability to trade SpaceX's IPO or oil on the weekend on Hyper Liquid, that's cool. or just going to talk at an event on Py Market, it brings people in and now even the degees are getting involved since Pump Fun also favors Circle and so it's true that Circle, which eats a bit of everything and is in fact becoming more and more, I think, the stablecoin that everyone will trade daily, more and more even compared to Tetter, you see, and I'm not even talking about Europe where you can't even trade Tetter on centralized platforms. and so forth.
So frankly, it's a very good sign when you see what's going on. Those who have read the article are circulating on the newsletter, you know a little bit about what we are talking about or who follow us live. Um, so beauty, I want to tell you this whole thing smells pretty good. Well, it might not be visible right away, but over the next 3, 4, 5 years, I think the effects will be massive actually. It's very good because it's starting to attract everyone, well, everyone, the 20 people who follow us, we're 80, we're almost 100, uh, so that if they are convinced by Tesis, they can take the time to accumulate their bag at reasonable prices, even if we haven't been close to $50, I think we're at prices that are still very reasonable. So yeah, that gives you time to study the file, to look at the ins and outs, to fine-tune your back-to-school prices for those who are interested in getting a bag. But it's true that I have a lot of positive factors and it seems to me to be a slow cooker which seems particularly interesting Circle on the medium to long term and it feels good to find a theory in crypto on which you can base yourself long term outside of Bitcoin.
Yeah, it could have been Ethereum, but in this case it's stablecoins that have taken this thing on this cycle.
Yeah, I even took another scoop the other day from Circle when I saw Hyper Liquid hit its ATH and I was thinking to myself, in reality, when you look at the comparison of the two, even though they are nothing alike, but when you have a bit of a vision of where Circle can go in the coming years, I really continue to think that guys, for me, this stock will end up being a palentir. I could be wrong, you know. Uh, my own conviction. There's a world of difference, I'm heading straight for disaster and I don't want you to drag me into disaster.
Everyone makes their own decisions, but for my part, uh, I literally think it's a game of patience. And if you are there on the circuit for the correct time horizon, that is to say a 4 5 years, uh it is uh it is potentially in fact a play which can be extremely lucrative.
And I'm also picking up on what you were saying a bit, Buty, but more and more I'm realizing that in crypto, well, it's really hyper concentration that pays off. Do you see what I mean? In the end, these were guys who all had their rings in Z cash, in hype or something like that if you want. They're the ones who really get it. And in fact, diversification in crypto can still tend to put you in a bind sometimes, knowing that the real use cases that are going to blow everything up in the coming years, well, we might have them on one hand, actually.
Yeah.
Finally, I yawned back to 110. I had bought a lot of circulating stock, but I yawned back a small amount to 110.
Uh GM, over to you, Safe zone. There is one thing that bothers me though, it's the BT Coin ETF graph which is flat. It doesn't yawn. I find it hard to believe that, uh, we're going to start again. I'm still going to talk about it in the charts, because for now, things are good.
Now we're not completely out of the woods yet, we know this market but sometimes it's always when you want to celebrate that you get a backstab, yes I can say so, and indeed you still have this contrast a little bit and I agree with you, but we can go check you out on this pre-live version, he of the [grunt] W when terminal guys.
ETF flows over the last 90 days have still shown a certain deceleration, around the local deep that we've been doing on Bitcoin. That being said, the selling pressure is currently calming down and so it's something to watch because sometimes it's true that ETFs can have a bit of a "window effect" or a key level recovery something and then suddenly boom boom boom you can see some candles reappear but as such you're still walking a little bit on eggshells and I agree with you on that, we have to be careful about that since ETFs remain an important driver, remember, institutional investors, but now 7% of the total supply of cryptos is held by ETFs. Uh, when you look back a little bit 3 years ago, well, you can feel the accumulation despite everything over the long term, it's still there but episodically you still need to see them really intervene and come back relatively strong as we could see a little bit uh over the period of last year, you see, from April to July 2025, that's when you had the bulk of the Bitcoin pump and there we could clearly see the inflows on the ETFs which were being followed, in fact. Hm.
Then there is also the tension which is elsewhere in quotes which is shifting away from cryptos at the moment and within cryptos themselves you see well it's stupid but AI the AI more hyper liquid well the tension is already moving away a little bit from BTC that there are there are real runners in quotes. There are some things that really capture your attention.
So it doesn't surprise me to see Bitcoin a little neglected on ETFs. So it's not really a " Yeah, the instant" moment. You see the semiconductor TF, you quickly understand what.
That's just the thing, well, as Dark Fost says, there is clearly, in quotes, a lack of interest in Bitcoin at the moment. Okay, I'm on this one, on this post. Tac.
So basically, well, I'm simply showing you the spot trading of Bitcoin and we're at lows we haven't seen since, well, since 2025. So the interest in BTC, it's not there at the moment, but at the same time, when we make money in crypto, do we make money when interest is at its highest for individuals or do we make it when interest is at its lowest? I'll leave you to ponder that, but just because there isn't interest today doesn't mean there shouldn't be today, of course, but we're starting to see a period of disinterest in Bitcoin that we haven't seen for a long time, and we're seeing it on pretty much all the exchanges simultaneously, especially on Binance, we see it directly, but like Franconite said, well, yes, I think it's potentially dangerous. Wait, sorry, I heard the ringing, I'm a delivery driver, I'll give you 2 minutes, sorry. Ouch, ouch, ouch.
Damage equal to Amazon delivery drivers. Okay, well, I suggest we talk a little bit about the market in broad strokes while Beuty isn't here.
Uh, what's interesting to note and what 's cool at the same time, what can also allow us this release since we had a mini episode of stress on the American bond market which took place, well, in fact, about last week. Yeah, it was last week, I think we woke up to a real high for now on US bonds. That being said, it is still pulling back properly, both on the 30-year rate and the 10-year rate. That's what's interesting, it's starting to ease the pressures a little bit. All of this, of course, is tied to an oil company that's currently basking in rumors, so this time it's really the real deal, right? But you know Trumpy a little bit. We're still careful because at any moment the guy wakes up, he tweets you something like I'm going to wipe out a civilization and you might have a final hail or something about oil since you're still tidying up. We're not out of the woods yet, but I think there's something to take away from this, which is that the market is frightening.
The market presents setups that sometimes give the impression that everything is going to turn into a catastrophe. But, uh, things are still relatively well contained. If you look at the period since March, when we were at the peak of uncertainty surrounding the conflict, we have not managed to recover to a higher level here, especially in terms of oil prices.
Certainly, bond yields have been a bit stressed, but for now it's good, they are pulling back. The VIX, the fear index, it hit its maximum in March and it has been climbing ever since. So, uh, a priori at least the market is telling us we don't give a damn about the conflict in Iran and uh, we think at least that, roughly speaking, it's contained for now.
Now, the thing is that it will still have to be able to follow in the coming months, I think, so that we can really have some concrete things because we are not yet really aware of whether there is collateral damage a little bit from the fact that Hormous has been blocked for so long and therefore some of the oil has not arrived but the stock market is not aware or does not want to hear about it and it is clear that for now we still have this momentum which is extremely bullish on the side of the indices when we do not look at the month of March and we see that we have literally made a jump of 20 and some percent on an American index and well that is not nothing. And now this is going to be the key moment, at least for us on Bitcoin, to see if we are able and in a position to capitalize a little bit on this pump. I think we haven't capitalized much yet, considering the external context, namely the AI which is soaring, the stock market which is at ATH+ and so on. But, uh, well, you know the take, right? But for me, as long as we don't re-enter below this low point, as long as we don't actually re-enter, make a concrete deviation below it, which would actually put us at risk of going for this point, well, you still want to believe in, uh, OK, higher high on the weekly, higher low on the weekly, new high, new higher low, and if that's the case, well, potentially it opens the window for us to close this CME gap and this weekly FVG, and potentially, why not push even further around the 2026 open, the 2025 open? Knowing that here, guys, uh, this is the capitulation zone for Bitcoin. If you ever see Bitcoin this year in this area, know that the short sellers will leave and massively buy back the guys who were sidelined and who were saying, "That's it, we're definitely going to the market." If you ever see Bitcoin venture here, we're on the back foot. Oh, I'm on the back foot, we're on the back foot and uh, uh [grunt] well, one day at a time, but it's true that it's still important to take it in the context where, as long as the S&P 500 is on this kind of performance, knowing that we had every reason to go all out in March during the Iran nuclear deal. We had every reason to do it at that time.
If you want, the fact that we didn't do it, and despite everything, we're still trying to create a kind of structure and that every time it works, if you want, you see, guys, that's it, back to 60k something. Anyway, the timeline is still relatively divided, very quickly tending to favor, well, maybe the bearish or cautious side, failing that, I'd say. Uh, that leaves perhaps a window of opportunity which could be nice to be able to have a bit of a rally during the summer. Uh, and why not go and find, after taking this last swing high, your real first pullback which could last a month or two, where you consolidate before, we'll see, either literally going back to a real ATH or we've had a crazy deviation and we're going back down, it seems a bit absurd to me, but why not, I 'm not here to try to project 6 months ahead, we're just trying to play with the levels we have in front of us, that's what we've done relatively well so far, and Bitcoin has n't been invalidated, uh, the altcoins have, uh, it's important to say, you see, Ethereum was still a bit more laborious Uh, for the moment, but uh, and it remains, you know, for Ethereum, it remains, but I'll show you a little bit in the intro.
Uh, we find ourselves, uh, we find ourselves, uh, now in a setup that's still quite complicated, uh, for Ethereum, and with other things where you have to be extremely selective. Uh, but you leave the hits with, well, that are starting to come in a little bit there.
Yeah, it's good, we can hear you okay.
It's good.
Ah, sorry, excuse me. It's my mic, bro. It's my mic.
It's good, it's good, we can hear you. You, you're talking there?
Yeah, yeah, it's good, I'm here.
Perfect, perfect.
And yeah, there's also, you were showing, there's also, because we were talking to you, because I was saying earlier that there were quite a few things happening on the, on the base, particularly at the level of the On Solana, there are quite a few runners too, on, well, on, simply, stocks that are generating revenue.
And, uh, with the cards, I also have a good example. So, there might be some performance to be gained, which doesn't mean we won't have a blast afterwards. So you have to be very agile with these positions, but there's performance to be gained right now, and on Solana, there are some good things to be gained. In my opinion, when we look at Cards, which we talked about a while ago, we took a position with Smart Cards. Well, we were talking about it. I don't know if I remember correctly. There were 44 million in revenue. That was a month ago. And when we look at it now, well, we are We're at x2 and the price generally follows. So we're a little bit in this, in this, in this revenue meta, where today the market seems to me— I don't know your opinion, Smart— but the market seems much more demanding because, well, hot-headed, cold-headed, as they say, it's an old-school thing, but anyway, the market seems more demanding and, in quotes, more demanding, more of a matrix, and is moving quite a bit towards apps that, well, that clearly generate revenue, and that's one of the reasons why hyper-liquid performed so well, because it was the revenue approach for this cycle.
So, it's true that it's one of the reasons, uh, now, uh, it's still quite disparate between apps that generate revenue [grunt] and hype. In fact, I think it feeds on this narrative, we have buybacks, whatever, it's cool, but it also feeds on of something else. That is to say, we are attracting a new game, literally, into the decentralized perpetual ecosystem. We're becoming big, we have a lot of open interest. Finally, it's starting to become relatively solid, if you will, for anyone who wants to trade, for example, off- market, some IPOs or some commodities on the weekend, depending on the news, etc. So, for me, there's this effect, there's this effect where people are trying to project themselves a lot onto what could become if we attract a segment of, in fact, more institutional traders, if I may say so.
Now, we have to realize something. It's true that, if you really look at it based on its earnings relative to its price, Hype tends to be extremely valued, perhaps a little too much, because if you compare it to what the SNP 500 does in the historical average or even now, it's still three times more valued. So you see There's a premium on the future, a premium on what Hype can become in the coming weeks and months. And we have that here too, a little bit. We're going to take a look at that in our Top Earners tab. So, I do n't know, I have a bug today with HP Liquid, it's not showing up, but it's normally top 2. [grunt] Uh, but you still have some nice things. Quanton Canton, which is also pricing very, very strongly lately. Tron, well, I wo n't even tell you about blockchain, it's still pretty good, but you see, from time to time you have a pump, it doesn't get screwed over, so it's not the ultimate truth, even if I agree with you, Beauty, I think that in fact we've had so much damage in this industry that we have to be extremely selective with these alts, in the sense of, does my alt have narrative potential?
Potential, at least, to attract Well, something compared to others, and one way, in any case, is to start showing maybe an established business model or a good number of users, something like that, more or less tangible.
Let's just say that today, in 2021, it was enough to just gather a community, so to speak. That works, but it works less and less because, well, people are leaving the same coins, also due to that.
People see that, well, you can build a community all you want, but then everyone leaves. And in the end, the community is a community in name only. So it's true that I think the demand has increased, so to speak.
That is to say, we're no longer just looking for a token that attracts attention, but a token that both attracts attention and generates revenue, a real business model, as you said.
Hey, check out your card, 10 out, look where it is, top 9 Top protocols that don't really go there. I'm, I'm good on the little one.
Yeah, yeah, yeah. I thank you [grunt] for the tip, but it's true that this little meta plus the Pokémon bull run that's there, well, listen, I want to tell you we'll take, we'll take, uh, a good question. Oh, well, you were going to, I was going to take that one and that one of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, up there too.
OK. Uh, I think Space will be a big bomb. I imagine that's what you're telling me, bro. Uh, there's a world of difference, uh, if I'm not mistaken, SpaceX has already been priced, uh, on Hyperliquid at nearly 2.5 trillion dollars.
Uh, but where we still have to be a little careful with regard to the rally, that's why this question comes at the right time, uh, is that there's SpaceX, there's Open, there's Entropi that have to enter The stock market is theoretically on this year.
And so, the strength that will be needed to absorb them, because they won't be listed on the S&P 500 or NASDAQ indexes right away, I think. There's a sort of trial period if they manage to maintain a certain valuation for a while. But what could be interesting—and I'm not necessarily showing this on the chart as such—is that we're reproducing a COVID or a DCOM bubble. But, uh, it's true that I would n't be surprised to see a sector rotation of profits, perhaps drawn a little bit from Nvidia, SKX, whatever you want to call them, which were somewhat in the high-growth sectors, to feed the new tickers, since these three are really in the middle of the narrative. Uh, I'm talking about SpaceX; for the other two, I 'm less informed, but I know that SpaceX will have a free float that will be extremely low. And in fact, compared to the amount of liquidity that can exist in either direction, uh, the volatility, I think it will be extremely important uh, for SpaceX. Uh, you have to realize that, well, with 5% of the shares publicly traded, they're still going to send it to you with a trillion and some change, uh, a minimum valuation, 1.5 trillion, I think, right?
Really, that's the consensus uh, right now. So uh, it still promises to be quite strong.
Personally, I'm not touching IPOs right now, uh, I'm not touching IPOs right now, I admit.
Yeah, I'm avoiding them. Uh, it's true that historically, you're still more likely, let's say, to be protected, to wait a little bit and not jump straight into IPOs.
Now, uh, the AI meta, I don't really know what it's going to be like, but it could be anything. I'm worried about a book with 5-10% of the shares uh Floating.
Uh, extremely concentrated liquidity, very little stock in circulation. Uh, it can cause sharp shocks, as they say. Oh yes, yes, of course, but then sharp shocks can just turn you around.
After that, things can move quickly, so I prefer to wait for things to settle down, to have a bit of history before taking a position. It's very personal, though.
Circle, what was it at? It was at 300 bucks, I think. Yeah. Yeah. 300 bucks. 300 bucks for good old Circle.
Uh, that's why I'm relatively grateful to have been able to get in a little below 100 bucks, around that price, you know. I think that in the long term, it will be a very interesting area. Uh, something else to keep in mind, but well, while waiting, maybe for ETFs and other things to pick up, the spot is There.
The spot since, uh, May 19th or 20th, there's definitely been absorption on the spot side versus the futures side, which you see here in yellow, uh, that's really noticeable. So, uh, that's also quite interesting, considering that we're coming out of, I remind you, the most potentially shorted period we've seen since, uh, 2023, meaning we've never seen so many negative interest rates. And that's really the difference between this Rising Wedge you see here and the one we did a little earlier, uh, for the end of 2025, beginning of 2026. You see here, there was a lot more positive funding return, and so guys were trying to play the comeback. Uh, here, there was a lot more fun shorting all the local tops, and for now, the market is managing to maintain a certain structure. So, well Tell us a bit in the chat, it's true, it would be interesting to know how you're positioning yourself, how you see the market for the next few days, the next few weeks, but uh, overall, it's still a setup that holds up for now if you ask me.
Yeah.
And what do you think about Ave then?
This question about Ave, uh, good old Ave, I cut it at a slight loss last week and I bought it back in this week. Do you still have your position?
No. Well, no, so I had to sell it, you see, I bought in at 91 and something. I sold it at 87 because I was seeing the altcoins, I was seeing Ethereum, I was like, "Oh come on, it's going to be the altcoins again, forget it."
[grunt] Uh, and actually, it was on Saturday night when I saw, if you will, the recovery on BTC, I thought, OK, uh, there's A world of... well, we made our 745 and we're good to go. Uh, so at AVE I brought it back in with a swallow, now well, under the previous batch. Oh no, I'm not going to lie to you, it's still laborious.
But, but, but, but, but, but, I'm starting to like this kind of setup a little bit, and take a break if you want one. In any case, those who are subscribed to the channel and are used to seeing it know that this kind of setup is a bit like this, precisely how you form a bottom. Why? Because you have a big cascade of ls trying to long like ports. Uh, in the end, it's not the right time yet. We come back for them. Here we eliminate them. Here you still have guys trying to long, but a little less than the first time.
They go to the top, bam, they get pulled out again. Uh, and the third time, you can find yourself in a setup where it's a little more deserted. Uh, especially since we... Given what happened this weekend, I think Morpho has overtaken AVE in the rankings. Yet still with a TVL half as high. So you can definitely sense a certain distress on the AVE side, whereas Morpho might have a bit of an execution premium.
People have more confidence in Morpho right now than in AVE. At least, that's what the price is trying to tell us, but it's true that given the overall context, well, with AVE, I get the impression that it doesn't have much more to offer us on the downside. And if even that doesn't hold, we can still assume that the token is seriously compromised. You see, what you're really hoping for is that if you want Bitcoin to hold its own, it goes back up a bit, takes some altcoins with it, and then at some point, it wakes up and decides to make a little jump, you know, at least in the areas of Viwap, at least on these last few resistance zones that you can find here, which are logical zones where you'll still find sellers stuck. But in theory, there's a point where you start to run out of sellers, given that if you look at the monthly charts ( 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 9 months), they're absolutely red.
Be careful because it's in this kind of setup that you can still have a bullish... They don't justify it yet.
Of course, the market can always be irrational. After all, it's still a better foundation than the community we had previously. Now we have matrices.
So I think that in the long term it tends to perform. In the short term, in the medium term, yes, you can have a token that generates revenue that's absolutely like the pump, right?
The pump is a good counterexample.
It always generates 100 million in revenue. Well, for now, the charter doesn't care. Very clearly. And it can still not care. It can still not care for another six months. Just like there will come a time when there's a spark on the pump, people will look and think, "Oh [ __ ], it's generating cash," and bam, you'll be back for another round of trading.
Yeah, roughly speaking, you summarize it pretty well. Uh, it's true that the pump is in difficulty, but Again, these are... these are files, one day they wake up and [grunt] and they fly away. Now, it's true that Solana isn't a bear when you really look at the stock itself. It's having a lot of trouble right now, how to say it, just to perform a little bit, you know? I think even against Ter, which is n't exactly crazy right now. Well, Solana is n't there, you see. Uh, well, the L1 stocks overall are... Yeah, yeah, yeah, literally. Uh, Sol, it's true that it's a bit of a Sol, even if you look at it against BTC, it's a bit the equivalent of the 2022-23 stocks against BTC. Uh, that's a bit of a problem in this market too, you're going to end up with... and I'm the first to admit it, I fish for that sometimes, but... it takes time, if you will, to recognize a winner as a winner, and by the time it becomes a consensus, well... You have a next winner that is being made. For example, you see, you arrive at the end of the 2022 market, you say to yourself "OK, that's it, I'm finally going to trust Ethereum or 2000 rather," you see, and you see Ethereum which is delivering but not delivering as much as before because the new runners are Sol and in this cycle everyone wanted it, it was for Sol, you see, but it may not be the best token to buy back in the current period to get back on track faster. Do you see what I mean? A little bit of but buying the apps that the tokens are currently available for.
Well, especially since you have, as we showed earlier, but you see with Pump Fun favoring USDC stuff and all that, the L1 model is still a bit compromised.
Well, anyway, the basic narrative where yes on Main you have to buy my token so that something and it makes p my token and the whole ecosystem and we're happy. Uh, it's taking a bit of a hit since the default stablecoins are really becoming extremely prevalent and replacing the token quite easily, since now the devices allow you to bid almost directly in stable form.
Hm.
So, uh, so there you go. Anyway, frankly, I'm going to go back a little bit to the context, but BTC, well, you know it. I will give you an update. So I'll do it tomorrow since we were delayed this week. The newsletter will be released tomorrow. But the must-hold zone, you know it, it 's here. Honestly, I see a reintegration below. I think we can really start to say to ourselves, "OK, we are in danger." Uh, but as long as it holds like this, when I look at even the weekly close we had, you see, we can see from the size of the wick that buyers have returned, buyers have been interested. And what we should see that would be interesting now is this week a continuation and to break, why not, the highest of the two weeks preceding us. And there, we can really start to officially announce, I think, a rally that will potentially shake things up for the shorts because for me, arriving here is the zone where we will see the shorts become very aggressive.
And so, in fact, the reason you have so much resistance from things that should be holding you back here may also be the reason you're going through it so, so hard. You see, it will depend on how much the shorts are there or not. Because I agree with those who tell me, well, this is your max supply zone, uh, you just arrive above the gap filling, you have the open 2026 27 thing and so on. These are supposed to be tough areas. Well, sometimes precisely when the market is quite unbalanced, it will have to be for that to happen. That's why I'm not saying it's a guarantee, but uh, it wouldn't surprise me. What I'm trying to tell you is that it wouldn't surprise me if we get through this much more simply than we think, and that in fact, here you have the market that has abdicated and there you can finally start a real pullback that lasts 3 months. That's why I titled it "There's a world away," that's what the summer rally might be that awaits us there.
[grunt] Who's thinking about it? [laughs] Yeah, I have bills to pay too, bro.
Honestly, if you want to afford a little bit of a vacation, there's nothing you can do without being naked, right?
Yeah, yeah, yeah. It's true that that's pretty much what happened to us last year and we'd really like to do that again. You never revisit the 60k. That's a possibility, you know. That's a possibility.
Like I said Gorjus, you see, I think that's something that's been pretty good at least for the last two or three months, that I've avoided being really stubborn, stuck on yes, the batch thing is like that, so consequently, we're going to turn it off. Yes, that's true, but you can turn it off from there, just as you can turn it off from much higher up, and just as you can still do something absolutely scam and come back to turn it off in 9 months, in 10 months, I don't know, you see. Uh, so failing that, I'm really going to try, if you want, to follow it and respect the structures, uh, and be able to take the earliest possible signals, in fact, to get out of there when things go wrong. Uh, it's the same, it's like when we took off on the MA50 break, uh, well, it still saved us from a good, a good, good mess, if I may say so, since we came back quite aggressively into that region. Well, we'll see how it goes. We'll see. I think the goal is really not to try to project three or three too many steps in advance, it's to try to have a plan, to try to know a little bit where we're going but above all also to give ourselves the level from which if the market is not in my direction where I'm going to leave. Uh, for me, that's the hardest thing here because if you're there in holdle to the moon mode, new super cycle bro, uh, bro, I won't repeat it but yeah, it can be destructive.
Yes yes uh Ranger well finally I said it and said it again so 745 I agree with you if the level is lost uh hi we forget the bullish scenario a priori I am relatively in agreement with you. That's why this coming week is going to be extremely important, extremely important to see exactly what's happening. Are we able to follow? Can we break even higher? Because in fact, that's what I would tell myself, if we are still breaking this high, ah bro, the market doesn't want to lose. Do you see what I mean? You need a certain flow to consistently achieve higher low weekly streaks. And so that could potentially mean that the market has an interest in going higher. Uh, on the other hand, there you go, he loses the 74. For me, we're talking about reintegration with a target that's roughly 58h 58 and then you're dead. So, uh, but for now, when I see the look, I want to let it play out and I would slightly favor it to be bullish, but I'm not crazy. I see a trigger invalidation, I'm out of here. There you have it, I have absolutely no pity. No mercy. Now, uh, we're here as long as we can do something, but if I have no graphic reason at least to stay, I'm leaving.
Uh, we're talking about a few altos. What are we talking about? What do you have on your watchlist at the moment?
What are you monitoring?
Ah well, I'm looking at Virtual quite a bit on the agentic side, that interests me for the moment. I don't have a graphical opinion, but I don't find it too bad. Well, then there's the income aspect, precisely. For now, it's still a desert.
So, you're banking on a potential recovery of momentum around Virtual.
Personally, I find it interesting.
So, it's a very risky bet because we're not talking about the undervalued thing that makes 10,000 bucks a minute, a minute, and so on. But potentially, I think the team and the project are capable of capitalizing on an explosion around genetics and I like what they are doing around robotics too. Finally, they are quite cutting-edge and I like this project too. There is a part of it that I simply like, of course, but well, I like how it delivers, but for now it doesn't capture attention. Uh, I think they have the means to recapture her again. So, there you have it, I'm keeping a pretty good eye on him anyway. I have a position that was taken at approximately 0.70 some time ago. Well, you talked about it, you actually talked about it live.
So there you have it, I'm keeping an eye on it, I'm keeping an eye on a few things in the trenches but I'm not talking about it because it's a 100-200K market cap. So, I'm likely to take you to X 3 rather than blow up your divided by your divided by the NIT as well. The NIT that I'm monitoring, which I let go of a little too early around 40k, I had made more than a few trades on it.
So now, I'm not on it anymore, I'm not on the nit anymore, it's out of my way now, but I find this token quite incredible. Well, not Ave because I am the reversal that can happen. Pump, it's not tokens that I'm following because I think they'll immediately go back up, right? I follow them for rather specific and, frankly, overly personal reasons. The pump because well I'm on it, it's a token I know well and well, I have reasons to be bullish in the medium term, even if for now I can stay in the medium term at the current price. So I'll have to be vigilant about that too. Pengu, I like what's happening around the token too and I think Lucas hasn't given all his upsite yet on Pengu and I like that this meme really stands out in the genre, we are a meme, we are a community but also there is a business behind it, there is something that is being established, they are becoming sponsors of Manchester City and so on. Finally, there are clear and not anecdotal intentions to touch on things outside of crypto. So, full of taste, I also like what's needed right now.
And there you have it. Well then, you follow BTC too and there you go, I'm not 50000 but there you go, I'm quite active on trenches at the moment, whether on base or on Solana because I have some small deals to make but I come back quickly and I leave quickly. So sometimes I take the top and sometimes, like on Nit, I make the rest of the rise but that's not a big deal, at least there's a loss.
Making x 2 x 3, that's good now I'm very happy and if it goes up to x 5 well it's not a big deal too bad the performance is there yeah well that's kind of the idea in reality especially we've seen it in recent years you see but you want to be exposed anyway in episodes uh you want to be there when the momentum can follow you a little bit but as soon as it withdraws you have to react very very you have to not delay in fact moiquel I made a little bit of a mistake on that in 2024 huh a lot You see, because used to a market under a certain regime, in fact, you take a little time to understand that it has changed.
Eventually, he'll change it again too, huh, maybe a little bit and we'll end up with the one a little too soon.
Things that are going to be mega runners, even if for now we are far, uh, far from being able to really talk about it comfortably because we feel it well, you see. But the altes are extremely uh the guiches for the most part, with two or three exceptions, but most of the time, lately, you still have an interest in taking your performance in the short term. I'll pick up on a couple of comments and then I'll jump in a little bit about what I'm monitoring in alt. Uh yeah, what a target then, Rot, for your little shorts. Actually, what I wanted to say, I forgot to tell you this morning, we stayed open anyway with a small gap at the start of this week. I would n't be surprised at all to see us, at least quickly. Uh, if we get here, you see, in the 75- something zone, uh, fill it up before potentially leaving again, I would n't be surprised. Well, the reason why I remain relatively confident is, let's say, what I went back into during that period. Um, could you maybe get back into that deep chat room?
The invalidation, guys, it's extremely precise. Finally, you lose 74, we don't have much left to defend.
So it's one of two things in fact, either this is really kind of your last dip before seeing what might be a summer rally. And when I look at the BTC setup with all the highs that have been left as they are, not touched, a gap last week again that awaits us a little higher around 80, another gap that has not been completely filled at 84. I tell myself that we still have this opium lingering and even there you see you still have some highs to sweep them. So you see, the idea of going to get it at the beginning of the week, why not then take the opposite approach, would seem to me to be the plan for the week if I had to make a decision.
Euho, ondo. Well, speaking of Ondo, uh, some rather catastrophic news for the token since uh, their founder died last night, I think, or at least a short time ago. Uh, so it's true that I didn't check what impact it had on the token or not. Uh, I don't know if you saw him, Beauty, uh, we didn't see Hondo this morning. Are you there, Beauty, or did I get rough?
Ah, I think he's left.
Pardon? It's me. It's me.
My microphone was off.
Yeah.
Uh, I was saying apparently he died unexpectedly. So either it was suicide or an accident, but he shouldn't have, he didn't have any illness and so on.
He wasn't predisposed to it. The president has now taken on the role of CEO. So Yan Yan de Bod. So there you have it. As for the token, I didn't see it really explode. Nothing - 05 isn't much, is it, for a CEO who dies? I assure you that if Elon Musk dies tomorrow, Tesla will be down 30%.
Oh yeah, so OK. [grunt] Uh Hondo, graphically speaking, do you have anything to play on Hondo? After that, it's true that fundamentally it has always been strong, but what bothers me a little about Oondo is that the executives really screwed us over, didn't they?
Uh, you ca n't achieve such a cataclysmic performance, minus 90%, without your insiders, he's ticking, he's ticking, neck or it's been taken back not long ago, we'll see, we'll see for the future. Anyway, I honestly don't know what you guys think.
We tried to touch on it briefly.
Actually, it's been three weeks since we introduced Virtual and the other tokens. But overall, we clearly saw the reward that it was precisely to talk a little about agent payment. He's pumped Ton well too, which I think needs to be monitored. I'm not necessarily talking about the price, although I think it's something to keep an eye on, but the ecosystem is pretty amazing on Ton too. [grunt] Yeah, yeah. B ton is still an ecosystem that can have a powerful impact. And actually, when you look at the potential setups, your WLD with Open AI behind it and all, you have to be careful because you still have some companies, uh, that have firepower, against users and tokens at a time when Li Lia, sorry, is completely [laughs] uh Yeah G, the guy is crazy. So yeah, those could be some interesting setups. I have yours under surveillance. There's even this company, your X, which is valued at around 200 million while it owns 400 million tonnes, which could be an interesting bid, but we can feel it a little bit now, the tokens are rather rewarding. What's interesting is that what they're doing is everything that's needed.
We talk, we talk about AI and we don't think about yours, but as soon as you want to set up an agent, you use Telegram because Telegram is easier to use than WhatsApp, I find anyway. And Lux, compared to MTA, so on WhatsApp, is absolutely disgusting on Telegram. Your agent, it's set up, it's set up and you interact with it in 22 and uh and the platform is ultra permissive, ultra open and when we assume that people will increasingly equip themselves with agents and so on, uh the Tom ecosystem will be a good entry point to interact with and I think they will manage to gain performance from that precisely. [grunt] I agree with you. I agree with you. And besides, you do n't necessarily want Pavel's bland.
No, they're fine.
It could be interesting even though I haven't yet found the time to put an exhibition there. Tao, you still think it's interesting to talk about it. Tao, who bounced well on the 240 zone and who, for the moment, has held a high low. And here too, it's the same for him. Uh, we can't afford to stall for 107 years. If you're really that stubborn, you'll have to get through this area. You're going over 340, uh, I'd say 340 to 360 in that zone, you know. [grunt] Uh, here we can potentially entertain a real return to TH Shimo. Uh, and that's why I've had a recent shift towards wanting to open up my portfolio a bit more and more to Lia because I have the impression that if the market is to be favorable to a return of certain alts given the context, LIA can indeed deliver for a little while in my opinion.
XMR my friend we're here uh XMR XMR it's still it's it's this slow cooker that thought it was huh if you want.
Personally, I put a small portion of the tank on it without really monitoring it because XMR, you see, is really a beast of conviction. Ah yes, but uh, I am very bullish on XMR in the long term for a multitude of reasons.
Well, the first one is still Europe as it seems to be heading. I think that indeed the need for privacy can be there. Now, it still needs to be tempered because you also have to tell yourself that your normal Normi, uh, well, I don't say Normi in a pejorative way, you see, but it's more to say if you want people from outside there to make a kake wallet, to take their XMR and all that, uh, you need attraction, you need inertia, it can take time. But that's not the only thing that can drive Monero. For me, a new reason why you can be bullish on Monero is that if you are bullish on myths and all the ha of DeFi platforms, therefore, you are bullish on Monero. You see what I mean, Buti? Yeah, of course.
But Monero now, it's actually simple.
We're still on a long timeframe, but for me it's a return above $500 that could really potentially open the door to integrating Monero into the four figures. What? What I mean by that is that we have a consumption that lasts for 8 years and a bit. At first glance, she was overwhelmed and then rejected. Uh, but if we really manage to break free from it, uh, that could be a mega base before a major expansion. Now, I have no idea about the time frame, you see.
It could happen in 6 months, 1 year, or it could take 3 or 4 years and be at the dawn of the 2030s. But it's true that the more we move towards a society, uh, Alia with surveillance, the more I think Monero will make sense for a multitude of reasons as well. Hm hm.
And besides, that's uh, that's also one of the reasons why NIR is experiencing a mega pump right now. Well, that's because they found a way to be in the middle of the two buzzwords, namely privacy plus AI. And uh, if I understand the concept correctly, and guys, catch me in the chat if I'm talking nonsense, but basically the thing is it allows you to anonymize funds on a multitude of chains, not just on NIR, but also on other chains like Ethereum, and so on. And in fact, you still have the option of being able to communicate, let's say, revily, for example, a guy who would be controlled by Bery, quite simply. A quick tax audit, hello. So. Well, you still have a way to prove that you're not Shady. And in fact that's perhaps also a narrative to watch out for in the sense that we see it with crypto kidnappings, things like that, but I think there are many people who have value on the blockchain and who would like to anonymize the funds a little without necessarily being criminals and who, if they need to comply with a central authority, want to be able to prove it, you know, so they can still have some good nights of sleep ahead of them. And so, uh, in any case, from that point of view, NIR seems to be relatively well rewarded.
I might try to give you an update, or even talk about it a little bit in the newsletter soon. That being said, since we are on a reintegration of Range and on Nir, I think that all the pullback in this region may be good to take to try to see what it has to extract. But I still have the impression that Nir could be one of the up-and- coming performers and why not take on a sort of Zach, you know, a bit.
I don't know enough about projects, you know. I have to tell you, I've let myself go a bit lately. I'm going to give myself a little break but I ca n't keep up with everything in this ecosystem. You're rusty, Buti. I have to tuouill.
Yeah, I take responsibility, I take responsibility.
Yeah. Okay, [grunt] that being said, we shouldn't make this too long. We're at 59 minutes. I think we're doing pretty well for this little uh guys. Anyway, uh, for the rest, well, I want to say you know the address, uh, it's on Twitter, you go to link tre, you'll find all the links. The newsletter, I'll give you the market update, uh, well, no later than tomorrow. Excuse me, but as a result, we've postponed everything by one day this week. Uh, and we'll be back soon with something new. We are trying to enrich this terminal a little bit to offer you an increasingly interesting daily routine, in any case well focused on our needs and consequently on yours. So there you have it, well, I wish you a very, very nice day. It's hot where you are in France, I think.
No, yes, we're definitely here. We're doing really well [laughs] in the sun, guys.
We're not going to complain about that. We're not going to complain about that. We're going to make the most of it. Hm.
When the grass is green and the wallet is green too, well, we go touch grass, we enjoy ourselves a little and we let ourselves go, we let ourselves be carried away, guys.
Well, there you go, take good care of yourselves, bros. In any case, we'll meet again soon. Do n't hesitate to support us, whether it's on Twitter, on YouTube, any support, even a small like, comments and everything, it helps us a lot. And, uh, there you have it. And then have a good end of the day, take good care of yourself, your hygiene and then then scratch.
Yes!
[music]
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