In PrizePicks sports betting, identifying value plays involves comparing prop lines across different sportsbooks to find discrepancies where the implied probability differs from your calculated probability. When building slips, avoid players whose lines have been 'bumped' (reduced) as this reduces your edge. Unders are generally better bets in playoffs regardless of star players involved. The strategy requires analyzing line movements, understanding how different sportsbooks juice their lines, and building correlated plays that capitalize on mispriced opportunities.
Deep Dive
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Deep Dive
PRIZEPICKS 6/3 NBA/MLB/NHL PICKSAdded:
All right.
So, I was talking to myself.
Love that.
[ __ ] forgot to pay the Wi-Fi bill. [gasps] I don't even know what happened. The Wi-Fi didn't even go out really. Like it was like everything's fine. It just [ __ ] stopped streaming. I thought I got banned on YouTube and I look at my Twitch and it's cooked.
Um anyhoos, how's y'all day? I was going man. I was like I was on a rant.
How long have I been talking to myself?
You owe me a kiss now. What? We tried to tell you, but you didn't read chat like always. Yeah, I was I was like all my, you know, kind of thing.
[laughter and gasps] God damn it.
We're back. All right, [applause and cheering] where was I?
Basically, I was talking [ __ ] but doesn't matter, right? Pick six, we smoked them. Better, we smoked them.
Price picks, we smoked them. Underdog, we smoked them. Dabble, I went four out of five. [ __ ] Dabble. Sleeper, I have no idea. I didn't check. Overall, great day. Okay, I'm going to make some [ __ ] slips. I just went on a full rant for 25 minutes and I wasn't even on stream. Doesn't matter. Um, anyways, Dabble always rams us. Rams us. Like, absolutely rams us for no reason. Okay.
For absolutely no reason. There's no reason it should be ramming us. Every single day we go four out of five. Every day. Every day we go four out of five.
Oh, that's ugly. I don't want to look at that no more. How is Lure doing? Does anybody know?
Wow. I've had too much coffee. What's your Twitch? Um, wow.
I saw that guy have Ben as nuke on the day he talked about you. Dude, Ben is just piece of [ __ ] bro. Hey, if you guys don't follow me on uh on Twitter, can you go do that?
Thanks.
Should I drop out of college and become a full-time sports better? Absolutely.
Yes. Yes. Lol. Good. Um, no. But you should start. Lure has 14 kills. You're joking. What was the website name? I don't even remember the website name.
[ __ ] Um, you should start with a small bankroll, okay? And you should scale.
And then once you get to the point where you're able to make a side income, genuinely a good income, then, you know, maybe you can think about decisions like that, right? Um, but I would recommend, you know, not just throwing 20 grand in your account and just hoping for the best if you don't know what you're doing, okay? Um, or just watch my streams and just play my plays with 20 grand and you you'll be good. L 14 kills. I'm kidding. Why would you say that, bro? That's not funny. Um, yeah, I play low. I'm a nerd. Oh my god. Good morning, gorgeous. Penguin. Good morning, gorgeous to you. That dude you were roasting on Twitter docs to you.
Yeah, literally. What the [ __ ] He's really good. Basically like Brunson for esports. Oh, great. Well, good job Brunson's going under today. Um, yes, I play low. I'm a nerd. Okay. I didn't know to be honest. I'm glad. Blah blah blah blah. Don't follow him until he takes his shirt off. All right, I'll take it off. I got closer this time, but not today. Andy Danger, that's what it was. Thank you, Quando. Guando Rondo, appreciate that. Andy Danger. Who is that guy? [laughter] Who the hell is that guy? All right. Who the hell is that guy? I just want to look at his two kills. I just disabled again. All right. Let's go make some slips. Huh. So, we have a boost. We have a boost for golf. No one uses golf. Uh, no one's playing that. We have a free square.
We have uh NBA. We have MO. Dude, I love that they're giving me 50 bucks. I don't remember them doing that. I think it was 10 or 25.
Can we start the stream roasting dudes who talk smack on your Twitter?
Literally worked yesterday. Yeah, I think we should. Icon, I need your advice. Talk to me. That means today we smacking facts. Um, not you, Icon, Miss P. Oh, bet. Uh, got you, bro. Don't start that Quando run of [ __ ] bro.
He does.
Quando is so you, dude. Is the fan on in here? It's [ __ ] hot in here, man.
Guys, I'm having a great day already.
All right, let's go. [ __ ] Can you guys follow? Hit the sub button. Follow Twitch. Follow Twitter. Just hit the follow button everywhere, bro. All right, let's go build some subs.
Anyhoos, rewards. What do we build first? You know what I mean? Let's look at the optimizers, the opto. See what that shit's talking about. Okay. Um, filters, map prop weights. What am I going to do? I'm going to put on my DK pick six weightings that I just created.
Okay. What are these DPA pick weightings? Matt prop weights without DraftKings. Simple as that. Okay. Why are we unweing DraftKings? Very s Look how much two series. Very simple, right?
We're not going to take a discrepancy um like we're not going to judge discrepancies across a sports book and a DFS app on the same company. They're going to have similar lines. So, we're never really going to find a discrepancy. So, if we're waiting this, this will automatically make our probability to hit lower, not giving us the true value that we're really getting, right? That's like going on DraftKings and trying to beat a line by comparing to DraftKings. It doesn't make sense, right? How do you do that? So, that's what we're just getting rid of.
Um, that being said, we're going to build this out. So, we have two slips up up up. We're going to do NBA. We have two slips up already. Um, from like two days ago, as you can see, the first one, uh, Brunson got bumped. OG is the same line, which is whatever. Uh, Brunson got bumped down a point. Um, so that's nice.
And the other guy, whoever the other guy was, um, Fox, he's removed, so that's really nice. He's probably at point8x.
And then Kell Johnson, Bridges, and Towns. Um, let's take a look at what that looks like. Towns got bumped.
Johnson and Bridges are still there. Um, so I assume they're still in the optimizer because they reduced. Towns on the unders. Um, Kell Johnson on the under eight points. So you can still take those actually, honestly. Like you can still take these two. Um, good good lines. Okay. Um, anyways, so we're just going to avoid these players if possible. So OG Brunson Fox, Bridges, Johnson Town. So what we really need to do is build a Spurs threeman. um preferably because we have a lot of the the the guys. So we have under 25.5 here which is a good line. We have is under 5.5. It is a point8x so I'm going to just build this out as well. Um under 25.5 yo go have a bad game for me Mr. Fox. Um we have WBY on the under 30.5.
Um pretty good [ __ ] line. I'll be serious with you. But so is Vassel. Um, I'm going to take WBY on the under 30.5 cuz assist line. It's not rebounds.
30.5. And then I'm going to go with So, we have Novig is a little low. Let me pause this because everything's moving too fast for me. Um, let's go let's go NBA. Clean this up a little bit. Okay. So, we have Bassel's really good, but he's also on Spurs. Okay.
Um, I think we go Brunson or Towns. I know we took both of them, but which one did we not take points? So, we took Brunson P, which got bumped, didn't they get bumped two points to 34.5? We got an exceptional edge right there. That was two days ago we built that. Um, Towns P.
So, both Pas are are under. So, we're just going to Oh, Brunson over points. Okay, so we're not going to take that. That would make sense, right? We don't want to It could middle, but we don't want to do that. So, we'll take Towns.
Hopefully, Towns has a bad game. He's really juiced. I mean, he's the best prop on the board right now. So, under 17.5 points.
Um, this is where I'm going.
Um, once again, unders are always better in the playoffs. I don't care if it's the finals. I don't care if it's the playoffs. I don't care if they're star players. The unders are better. I have a whole YouTube video on why. Um, but I'm not taking it because I think these are going to hit. Oh, this is pretty nerfed.
5.6x. I'm taking it because the juice is that way and it just works out. Um, WBY or Fox. So, who's better? I guess taking both of their P lines kind of hurts us in a little bit. Or PA and P. So, maybe we take off Fox because WMB is better. I think I think WBY is better. Yeah, WBY's better. We take out Fox and we put Vassel maybe under points. Um, or maybe if we don't get nerfed for a 10x, we take this 9.4x. Ew.
5.8x is a lot better.
7.5x we will take. Good [ __ ] slip.
Taking the Under Spurs and the UnderTowns. Okay. So, we just need a blowout, a slow game. Um, you know, kind of just the or just a regular game where their lines are just too juiced. Simple as that, right? That's all it comes down to. Um, pick sending the link in the chat right now.
Okay, let me read the chat. I feel like I just took forever to build that. Um, okay. By the way, his favorite food is Alfredo pasta. Facts. I think icon said he'd be free tonight. What? Not sexual guys, just a meetup. X winners are three some with icon happening. Wow, that's hilarious. Um, more like meetup. Wow, that was penguin. That was a good one.
And he likes pancakes for breakfast. I don't eat breakfast, but if I was, pancakes would be the one. I'm trying to eat that off his chest.
Would you take that if you don't have the boost? Basel. Uh, yeah, I would take this without the boost. 5.8x, I would.
Yes. Does anybody need a fourth? You could take it without the boost, but if you need a fourth, I will literally give you a fourth prop as a replacement. So, just let me know. Um, how do you say Vel's name? Vassel. I'm saying Vel.
That's his name. Meet up. That's good.
Yeah. Take this without boo. Yep. Icon.
Does it hang to left or to the right?
[laughter] Fourth, please. I got you, Fabes. Just for you, Fabes. Anybody? All right. All right, I'm going to have to build and make sure the nerf isn't too bad, though. Uh, fourman. Fourman. Fourman.
Do you have these two in faves? Because honestly, we we may reuse one of those guys. Um, but I guess everybody might have somebody might have somebody. So, okay, let me think. Um, I think Johnson under points for sure. I think I would probably reuse him too. He's pretty good. Um, and it kind of goes with Darkoro.
Oh, no. Oh, I wish I would have took this. I thought it would nerf. Um, this is really good. Under assist for WBY.
He's not technically the the the ball carrier passing the ball, right? That's really Castle, but Vassel or Vel, whatever this guy's [ __ ] name is. And then Kell Johnson. Kell Johnson is strictly off assist. So to take under assist is this much correlated. And then Vassel this much correlated, right? But we're just taking all the unders. A blowout, um, not a good game, a lowcoring game, um, a Knicks win, whatever it looks like, right? No OT.
Brunson over 24.5 points. That is a good prop. The reason I'm not personally going to put it in um is because wait, hold on.
Let me type it out for you guys.
Um okay, here here's the 10x 10x with those three. Yeah, sizzles. Oh, thank you for letting me know that. But I can't take him because I'm taking his under P. Um, so I don't really want to like double sweat. That's like annoying.
Um, so we're not going to do that. But yeah, that's a good prop if um if you're What was I saying? That's a good prop if you didn't put that in.
That's what I meant to say. Okay. Um, that's a good play. Is there NBA boost to sweat all under? So you can put the like super sweat thing and you just sit here and sweat your ass off on under.
It's the worst thing in the world. Um, I don't think there's any other juice because we have two other slips in. But, but by the way, if we didn't put those other two slips in, we wouldn't have really like we'd probably have one or two plays, but we wouldn't have three u not with this juice. So, that's really good, right? We're we're looking at really good value um early early, you know, a couple days. We're going to be doing that all finals. So, I would recommend following along. So, we didn't end up taking Fox Brunson. Yeah, I think we're we're done here because that's really it. Unless one of these props are good secretly down here. No, it's not. Cool. Good to know. Um, all right. I'm going to go Mob now and build that boost out. Brunson's free square. I will do that. I will do that later. Hold on. All right. We have a boost here. Unfortunately, let's take off the filters because sometimes fantasy score. Excuse me. Sometimes fantasy score pops up. Um, I don't know if Pix has a lot of it, but we'll look.
Yeah, it does. 8.5, 6.5, 6.5. This actually isn't great because they always juice theirs a little higher.
Um, so if we're going off of this waiting, it's not great. If we go off of the real waitings, we're actually Wait, if it's supposed to be 6.5 and we got 7.5. No, this is good. Wait, no, wait. I'm confused now. Yeah. Yeah, this is really good. Okay, sorry. I was super confused right there. This is really good. Akuna is really good. under 7.5 fantasies points. UD scores them differently than the rest of the apps.
They score it basically you get a lot more points easier. So what that means is when their lines higher um the over isn't as strong. Okay, but the under doesn't like this is basically 7.5, right? Or like maybe 6.5 on every other app. We want to look at the other two lines 6.5 and 6.5. This is really what it should be um fantasy score wise.
So, if we're getting above those two, it's really good to take the under.
Whereas, you might say, "Oh, but this is 8.5." Yeah, but they're juiced really heavily on on like their fantasy points.
So, kind of ignore that. Only take this into account when this is like 6.5, right? And we have 7.5. It's like, holy [ __ ] take smash the under because UD's juiced their fantasy scores and it's still lower than what we're getting.
Does that make sense? I hope that makes sense. Plus, we're getting a boost, so it doesn't really matter. If it's green, it's [ __ ] good, right, for the boost.
Um, all right. Let's clear this out.
I really want to put $1 on that so I could track to see if that wins, but it's too late now. Uh, boost. So, I'm going to go Akuna on the under 7.5 um, bang. And then we're just going to pair um with pick six um, as a trap. I'm gonna take that line and that line. I think we'll take Kyle.
Um, definitely going to need to boost this.
I don't think I would. I know I would not take this without a boost. So, this has to be boosted. So, if you need four, I can build out four. Does Do we need four or three for this?
Ivan Herrera over here on RBI's. Yeah.
If you can if you can threeman, this is it.
7.8x is beautiful. If you can threeman, this is it. I'll make a four man if you need it.
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