When the Federal Reserve signals a hawkish stance by maintaining higher interest rates, it creates a mechanical headwind for risk assets like Bitcoin because investors prefer the guaranteed returns of US Treasury bonds (paying nearly 5% with no risk) over volatile assets that don't pay interest, making the Fed's monetary policy decisions a critical factor for all risk assets including cryptocurrencies.
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The Fed Just Showed Its Hand. Here's What It Means for Bitcoin.Added:
Today's notes showed four members of that committee disagreed with the majority, the largest internal split since 1992 and three of those four didn't disagree, but they wanted disagree because they wanted to cut rates. They disagreed because they wanted to remove even the language that hints at future cuts. They're not just holding, they're signaling the next move might be up. The majority agreed that if inflation stays above 2% additional tightening would likely be appropriate.
Rate hike odds for December just crossed 50% according to CME Fed Watch.
And Jerome Powell, who ran the Fed for years, this was his last meeting. Kevin Warsh is now the chair. His first meeting is June 16th and 17th and that's when the easing bias is expected to be removed from the statement entirely.
Watch that date. It matters for every risk asset including Bitcoin and you have to think of it like the guy at the feed store. When the bank is paying nearly 5% guaranteed with no risk, no charts, no volatility on a US Treasury bond people stop sending extra money into things that don't pay interest.
That's the mechanical headwind Bitcoin is operating against right now and it got confirmed today. FOMC minutes were hawkish. That's a name sourced by the it's the Federal Reserve and it's verified. Now Iran
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