The video provides a sobering look at how financial engineering can inflate valuations beyond reality, turning a technological frontier into a potential trap for institutional capital. Itโs a necessary, if overly cynical, warning against the blind worship of debt-fueled growth in the name of innovation.
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Deep Dive
SpaceX IPO: The Greatest Rug Pull In History?Added:
There's only one thing I like better.
Other people's money.
>> Musk has run out of other people's money to spend.
>> So every explosion it's like, >> "How pissed are you?"
>> Boom. That was $100 million.
>> That's gambling.
>> Yeah. For the chip zone.
>> He's run out of private investor cash to spend. He's run out of government money to spend. So question, how is he going to keep the money furnaces of SpaceX running? By raiding people's pension funds, according to Musk's truth seeeking AI for some $50 billion. And the best bit all, it's not technically illegal. Although when the sheer scale of this becomes known, it probably will become illegal via something probably known as, oh, I don't know, Musk's law.
I mean, morally bankrupt, sure, but what would you expect? But not actually illegal. If you've got a pension fund, this is how it's likely going to get spent.
>> So, every explosion, it's like, >> how pissed are you?
>> Boom. That was $100 million.
>> That's gambling.
>> Yeah. For the chip zone.
>> Except it's not really a 100 million per launch. is more like a billion per launch in that they've spent some $15 billion on this so far and have launched about 10 rockets and is still nowhere near a functioning system. Not of Musk's money, of course, but other people's money.
>> Yeah, for the chip zone.
>> This is not just regular stupidity. This is the stupidest proposition in the stupidest dimension. The levels to which this is stupid, it's probably best summed up that if someone came up to you and offered to sell you a flaming bag of dog poop for $1 million, would you consider that a bargain? Well, it's actually the bargain of the century compared to buying the entirety of SpaceX for $1. Because the bag of dog poop doesn't come with $20 billion worth of debt, hasn't burned through some $30 billion of other people's money. That jumps up to about 70 billion if you include the money XAI has burned and isn't losing $5 billion per year with no plausible way of turning that around.
Yeah, for those who missed it, XAI bought Twitter and SpaceX bought XAI.
SpaceX is now the unholy trinity of failing companies of Twitter, XAI, and SpaceX, all under the title of uh SpaceX. Each one Musk bought off himself for a progressively more ridiculously high valuation, which is how he comes to value SpaceX at about $2 trillion. But SpaceX isn't planning to sell you the whole company for $1. They're planning to sell you 5% of the company for $70 billion. So I decided I'd give these numbers to Grock.
>> Extremely important in building AI is is a very rigorous adherence to truth.
>> And seeing as SpaceX now owns Grock.
This is effectively SpaceX telling you what it thinks of its own valuation. I have a company that has 20 billion of debt, is losing 5 billion a year, and wants to sell me 5% of their shares for $70 billion. Is that a good deal? To which it replies, "No, this is not a good deal based on the information provided. It's an extremely aggressive valuation that prices massive optimism or hype with very little margin for safety." Coming down to the key red flags, you're paying $300 billion per billion dollar of current annual losses.
That's an absurd multiple for a money losing business. Even if it breaks even tomorrow, you're paying $1.4 trillion for a company with $20 billion of debt that requires enormous future profits to justify. So, we come down to Yeah. Are those numbers accurate for the SpaceX IPO? Yes. The numbers you gave are remarkably close to SpaceX's recently reported figures with some 5 billion per year of annual losses, some 20 billion of debt, which is actually fairly conservative, and an implied valuation of $1.4 trillion.
Now, you might be thinking, "Yeah, so if some morons want to pay billions of dollars for something that is fundamentally dumb and worthless, that's their problem. Buyer beware, a fool, and their money are easily parted." Well, I've got bad news for you if you've got a pension fund. You're the bag holder here. So, I ask Grock, is Musk trying to fastlist SpaceX on the NASDAQ so pension funds will automatically buy into SpaceX? to which Grock says yes that's a significant part of the strategy. SpaceX under Musk is actively pursuing fasttracked NASDAQ IPO in 2026 with clear moves to enable rapid automatically buying by index funds and pension 401k money.
>> YES.
AND SEEING as Musk retains 80% of the voting shares of the company, he cannot be replaced. And part of the IPO requirements is that you wave all rights to sue SpaceX. This effectively equates to pension companies giving Musk some $50 billion to do whatever the hell he wants with with zero accountability.
Coming down to the bottom line of yes, accelerating the listing on the NASDAQ with fast index inclusion is explicitly designed to pull in massive automatic pension/index fund buying. Whether that's good depends on if you think the valuation and future execution justify it.
>> And you're selling something that you know has no value.
>> We are selling to willing buyers at the current fair market price. The reason why it's going to be worth so much money is Musk is going to build a satellite factory on the moon.
>> You get there by having um an electromagnetic mass driver on the moon with robots with Optimi and obviously lots of humans.
>> Really? A man who can build a sports car on Earth is going to build a satellite factory on the moon. That is the man who can build this claims he's going to build this. And that is why SpaceX is worth a trillion dollar.
>> When are you going to make a new Roadster? We are making it now.
>> Wow. They're making it now in 2017 and about half a decade later in 2022. It's coming next year.
>> And uh in in the and it's Cybert truck is coming next year. We'll be in production with Cybertruck next year. Uh we'll be in production with the Roadster and with Semi. So that's all all coming.
And then next year in 2023, it's um in development. Yeah, it's now 3 years since I made that video in 2023 and it's now 2026 and the Roadster is still in design development. And I should maybe stress, it's not just he didn't make a sports car. He didn't make a sports car given a,000 deposits of a quarter of a million dollars each. At this point, I think I know more about manufacturing than anyone currently alive on Earth.
>> Yeah, mister. I know more about manufacturing than anyone alive on Earth's best product was >> it. It It really is the most I think it's I think it's our best product.
>> The Cyber Truck, the biggest flop in modern automotive history.
>> Actually like separating up. I think I know >> more about manufacturing than anyone currently allows >> and I one thing I I I am confident of saying is that it's an incredible product. Um it's a Hall of Famer. I think um >> Simon late this year and I think the product if anything is better than expectations. It it it really is the most I think it's I think it's our best product.
>> But sure, the guy who couldn't build a sports car on Earth given a quarter of a billion dollars of pre-orders in a decade is totally going to build a satellite factory on the moon. And Starship is is a critical piece of the puzzle because in order to scale uh compute and scale power.
>> Yeah. Cuz you know what's a really good business proposition is when you build a data center here on Earth and it only gets 11% usage, which is pathetic. You say, "Hey, yeah, but what if we built like a thousand times more of them, and put them into space?" It's like saying, you know, we can't sell the cars we're already making. You know what we should do? Double production. A >> as a function of the great policies of President Trump and his administration.
And as an act of faith in America, Tesla is going to double vehicle output in the United States within the next 2 years.
And you'll be shocked shocked to find out that um 14 months out of the 24 has passed and the US production has not changed at all. That is the man who couldn't increase Tesla production on Earth. He claims he's going to build a satellite factory on the moon.
>> Compute and scale power. You have to go to space, which means that you need massive payload to space. Um and Starship will enable that.
Starship will enable that.
>> So, let me see if I've got this straight. The plan is to launch a thousand times more data centers into orbit when they don't really have a use for the one they have on Earth and then launch them on a rocket that has thus far burned through some $15 billion and is almost a decade late and hasn't even made it to orbit. And that's why a company riddled with debt and burning money is worth some $2 trillion because of the brain trust of 11 AI co-founding experts set up by Musk and XAI.
Sorry, what? What? What's that? Less than 3 years on, 100% of those co-founders have quit, which seems to be a massive red flag. And after Musk had paid top dollar to himself for this AI company and all the experts had quit, Musk, the only nonI expert, said the company was set up wrong. And that's why SpaceX is now worth a trillion dollar because it was so totally worth spending some 40 $50 billion of a other people's money to make the sixth worst AI company in the world with some 2% of the market share because of the genius of this man.
>> Falcon 1 is going to be the lowest cost per flight to orbit of any production rocket. Deja vu.
>> What did you just say?
>> I said that's a pretty hard no in that the Falcon 1 launched five times in total. Three of them blew up spectacularly. One of them launched a dummy payload. One of them launched a single commercial payload. And having blown some half billion, almost all of it government cash, their single commercial launch bought in $10 million of revenue. That's revenue, not profit before the whole program was cancelled.
>> Falcon 1 is going to be the lowest cost per flight to orbit of any production rocket.
>> And some 23 years later and having blown tens of billions of dollars of other people's money. And if you're going to say, well, the Falcon 9, that's a really good rocket, right? Fine. SpaceX has built up a deficit of some $30 billion over its 20 or so years life, putting some 7 12 million kilos into space. That means that SpaceX has lost about $3,000 for every single kilo it's ever launched into space. Maybe SpaceX should update their website about the amazing cost-saving of reuse from something like, oh, I don't know, 600 flights, $500 reuses, $50 million lost per flight. And I should stress, a moon mission only typically costs about a billion dollars. Musk still hasn't made it to the moon or Mars with an accumulated deficit of $30 billion.
And then we go beyond the moon, beyond Mars and we >> 2018 Musk tweeted Mars base alpha and someone asked him you know how long will it take to turn that from a computer render into a real photo to which Musk replied probably 2028 for a base to be built. Wow, it's now 2026. That base must be super close by now. What's that?
Musk has just tweeted again. For those unaware, SpaceX has already shifted focus to building a self-growing city on the moon as we can potentially do this in less than 10 years, whereas Mars will probably take 20 plus years. I know no one achieves things like Elon Musk going from building a Mars base in 10 years to uh some 10 years later saying they're going to build a Mars base in 20 years.
>> I can't wait for this residual capability. Basically, what it we're going to do is we're going to fly BFR like an aircraft and do pointto-point travel on Earth. So, so within 10 years, an economy price ticket or like a like a couple thousand dollars per person to fly New York to Shanghai.
>> So, let's say a billion or so dollars per flight at the moment with some 20 tons suborbital payload. And let's be super generous and say a 100 people.
Cost of a flight's not going to be quite business class. It's going to be more like $10 million for a ticket on that thing with a 100% certainty of dying.
But if you want to take a dumb idea and truly make it SpaceX level stupid, just take that dumb idea and claim you're going to do it 10 times as often. So even if my rocket was slightly more expensive and the fuel is a little bit more expensive, I can run 10x at least what they're running in a day and really make the revenue that I need to out of that system.
>> And for wow how fully delusional SpaceX actually are.
>> And the longest part of that Yeah, it's so awesome. The longest part of that flight is actually the boat out and back. Um, >> and just so we're clear, this is the best part of 8 years ago. Incidentally, some eight years ago, I actually busted this video, you know, when it came out because it was obviously stupid only to the whailing of SpaceX fans who gave it a 30% approval rating. And here we are 8 years later. Like, yeah, how's that working out for you?
>> I mean, Gwen, come on. This this this is awesome, but it's crazy, right? Like, this is never going to actually happen.
>> Oh, no. It's definitely going to happen.
This is definitely going to happen.
>> Uh um reality called and said >> so I think doing it I don't know 10 km out from a city. Maybe it's only 5 km out from a city.
>> Yeah 5 km sure thing. Meanwhile SpaceX is getting sued over the noise of Starship causing enough noise to create terrestrial bombardment. What's that say? resulting in cracked walls, shattered windows, shifted roof tiles, and broken foundations from places 5 to 15 miles away. And they're claiming, "Nah, nah, it'll be fine doing it a couple of miles away from a city."
>> From a city, maybe it's only 5 km out from a city >> and doing it 10 times as often as plane flights.
>> This is going to be deployed at some point in our amazing future. When When do you >> Within a decade, for sure. Yeah, sure.
Eight years in and they've got two years left to turn this around.
>> And this is Gwyn time or Elon time.
>> That's Gwin time. I'm sure Elon will want us to go faster.
>> Yeah, this just isn't reality. It's not Gwyn time or Elon time. It's Neverland or Narnia time. And because all of their goals are just pulled out of their ass, they just shifted from, oh, we'll 10x what airlines do to we're going to build a factory on the moon. You get there by having um an electromagnetic mass driver on the moon with robots with optimi and obviously lots of humans and >> how much might we expect Musk or SpaceX to actually deliver here? you're you're as intelligent as you can predict the future. Well, >> but I'm highly confident it would be less than $10 million uh all in over, you know, if you say like fast forward like 2 or 3 years from now, I I think it's highly likely to be everything included less less than $10 million a flight.
>> Yeah. 2026 called said uh 11 flights for $15 billion. That's like a billion dollar per flight. That is Musk delivered. or 1% of what he predicted.
>> You're you're as intelligent as you can predict the future. Well, >> which on the scale of Musk predictions is actually pretty good >> because if something if somebody claims this person or or this AI is very intelligent like well what how good are its predictions? Oh, and and we're going to try to send something to Mars on every Mars rende vu from here on out.
So, uh, Dragon 2, which is a propulsive lander, uh, we plan to send to Mars in, um, in a couple years and, uh, and then do probably another Dragon mission in 2020. In fact, we want to establish steady cadence that there's always, uh, a flight leaving, like a train leaving the station. And they did kind of deliver a steady cadence in that 2018 they sent no missions to Mars. And in 2020 they sent no missions to Mars. And in 2022 they sent no missions to Mars.
And then in 2024 they sent no missions to Mars. But in 2025 they said they would send five missions to Mars.
And in 2026 they sent no missions to Mars. That's an entire decade of not sending things to Mars. That is Musk didn't deliver 1%, he delivered 0%. I mean, what does he think this is?
Roadster deliveries.
>> Uh, but we do share technologies and capabilities wherever we can. In fact, I think the Boring Company could be the way that we house people on Mars. We'll have to dig tunnels for folks.
>> Really? I think so.
So we get to um use rocket technology to build tunnels. You have many small stations that are not much larger than a parking space. Then you could have you could really seamlessly integrate a new transport network into into a city.
>> Elon Musk says he's done it.
>> Finally, there's something something that I think could solve the goddamn traffic problem. We obviously having a sort of like many stations come out uh at subway stations, at bus stops, at uh you know, LAX and um it's >> yeah.
>> I mean, >> so we think these these times are actually real.
You guys address this a little bit, but how much would it cost to travel from LAX to Sherman Oaks?
>> Well, I think it was like a dollar.
>> $1. Yeah.
>> YEAH.
>> Let's see. Alex to Sherman Oaks is some 20-ish miles. So if he used a regular tunnel boring machine, it would take about 20 years to complete that system or 200 years if he used the uh boring machine developed using SpaceX technology and the rough cost of that tunnel would be about a billion dollar.
And let's see, an Uber driver would charge some $40 to make that drive. But because of Musk economics, the $40 taxi driver will only cost $1 if he's driving his taxi in a tunnel.
Yeah. Right.
>> And and and this is what you're saying there is just like an in kind of an example network. Uh ultimately it would probably be something different from this exact uh diagram and probably be um far more widespread. I mean be like really all over all over the greater LA area.
>> When do you believe SpaceX will land the first human on Mars?
>> Very it's very similar time frame from the point to point. It's the same capability. It will be within this decade within a decade.
>> And within about a decade, it's not quite that they hadn't made it to the moon or Mars. They hadn't made it to orbit. In fact, they had barely made it to the Indian Ocean.
>> We could be sending people to orbit before the end of next year.
>> Mhm.
>> You know, within a year approximately.
But he wasn't just going to take people to orbit in Starship in about 2 years.
In 2019, Musk also told Time magazine that he thought uh we could land on the moon in less than 2 years. Musk's [ย __ย ] hole continued. And when you say we, do you mean the US or you mean SpaceX? Musk says, "I'm not sure if it would take longer to convince NASA and the authorities that we can do it versus just doing it." an electromagnetic mass driver on the moon with robots.
>> We might just do it. It may literally be easier to just land Starship on the moon than to try to convince NASA that we can.
>> We go beyond the moon, beyond Mars, and we sail through the rings of Saturn.
Um, now wouldn't it be amazing if you could buy a trip to Saturn? Or frankly, if you just have a trip to Saturn, I think things will just be free in the future. Yeah, this is how off the charts dumb Musk is. To get to Saturn will take about 5 years. Then you will fly through the rings which will take approximately oh I don't know 10 minutes or something.
Then you will have a 5-year trip back to Earth. It's 10 years out of your life.
Oh yeah. And then of course there is the bone loss which at about 1% per month over say a 100 months you will literally have no bones left by the time you get back to earth having spent 10 years of your life in the most horrendous conditions ever. If you can think of it you can have it. That's it. U which means anyone could have a trip to Saturn. It won't be you know just a few people. If you want it you can have it.
Wow, the land of makebelieve.
>> So, how did we get to a point where Masu is claiming that a company that is riddled with debt and burning money with no plausible way of turning this around is worth some $2 trillion.
It starts with Musk buying Twitter for which he had to borrow some $10 billion.
And yeah, it has to be stated that Mus does not have hundreds of billions of dollars in the bank. If he did, he wouldn't have to borrow 10 billion to have bought Twitter, with most the rest of the money coming from the sale of Tesla shares. The whole Musk wealth thing is a variant on the idea that if I buy a Monopoly set with a billion shares in it, sorry, a billion Monopoly land dollars, and I sell one of those dollars to a sucker on the basis that I tell him that it'll be worth $10 in a year's time because of space computers and the light of human consciousness. Am I now a billionaire or did I just defraud someone out of a dollar? Twitter was, of course, a disaster. He told his customers to go f themselves.
>> Today is your introduction to the advertising community.
>> Don't advertise.
>> You don't want them to advertise?
>> No. What do you mean?
>> Today is your introduction.
>> If if somebody's going to try to blackmail me with advertising, blackmail me with money, go yourself.
>> It's a bold strategy, Cotton. Let's see if it pays off for him.
>> You arrogant ass. You've killed us.
>> Go [ย __ย ] yourself.
>> Is that clear?
>> I hope it is.
>> This is it. This is the sign.
>> Yeah, it's a sign. All right. Going out of business.
It might take a certain level of genius to spend $40 billion on a company that makes 90% of its revenue from advertising. Twitter X is basically an ad sales company and it's now led by a guy telling people to not only not advertise on X, but if you stopped advertising, you can gfy. And it was happily cealing towards bankruptcy. you know, the Twitter that was going to take over the entire world's banking system.
>> If done right, the X would be would would serve people's financial needs to such a degree that over time it would become, I don't know, maybe half of the global financial system >> or or some big number. I'm not sure what the number is, but pretty big. um >> and in doing so he would increase the company's value by 600%.
Musk was later deposed on that claim um under oath. You know where uh lying actually has real consequences. Maybe we can use this as a sort of benchmark to see how seriously we should take Musk's claims about oh I don't know space computers. You told Morgan Stanley that Twitter could be worth200 to30 billion under your ownership. Yeah.
>> Do you remember that?
>> I may have said that.
>> But time has a glorious bias to exposing Musk's lies.
>> Remains to be seen as to whether this was uh financially smart. Uh currently it is. It is not. Uh you know, we just revalued the company at less than half of the acquisition price.
>> Yes. So he claimed he was going to increase its size by 600%.
And actually ended up having its size.
>> You're you're as intelligent as you can predict the future. Well, >> so Twitter riddled with debt and burning money was happily steaming towards bankruptcy. You know, all of this thing.
>> And the whole world will know that those advertisers killed company, and we will document it in great detail.
Fortunately, Musk had been here before with Solar City in 2016, a company which he also ran that was riddled with debt and losing money. Huh, this is all starting to sound kind of familiar. In fact, it was worse than that cuz Musk had got a load of money off the US government for SpaceX, which he had then used to prop up Solar City. So, if Solar City went bankrupt, so would SpaceX. And his exit strategy was, "What if I sell all this garbage to a sucker? And there's no greater suckers than Tesla stockholders." So, he made some completely fake solar tiles.
>> So, we're going to show you this is the before shot of that house over there.
>> So, that's what it looked like before.
Now that's um all solar >> that they said would change the world which were how shall I put this unsurprisingly totally fake told the Tesla stockholders that they that had to pay top dollar for this company that was riddled with debt and losing money.
Yeah, this really is starting to sound kind of familiar. And boom, in one stroke, not only did he get Tesla to be the bag holders for this massive bag of flaming dog poop, he also made loads of money out of it because he got loads of Tesla stock in exchange for his Solar City stock. So cool, he just pulled that exact same stunt with Twitter. Apart from this was super easy because he was going to sell it to himself at X AI cuz he had a controlling share in both companies. So he sold Twitter to himself at topdoll valuation. The problem was of course is that XAI was also riddled with debt and losing money. Yeah, this really is starting to sound like a a recurrent theme here. No problem. He was just going to pull the same stunt again. And he bought XAI off himself with SpaceX, which is how I ended my video a couple of videos back, which is by asking Musk's truth seeeking AI is buying your own companies again and again. Normal or a massive red flag oneline answer.
massive red flag in almost all cases, especially if it's the same people doing it repeatedly across different companies.
>> What if it's done with progressively ridiculous high valuations?
>> Buy your own companies repeatedly at progressively ridiculous high valuations turns the already massive red flag into all screaming siren level warning.
It's almost never legitimate business behavior and frequently points to manipulation, value extraction schemes, or outright fraud, fraud, fraud, fraud, malfunction, malfunction. Now all he needs to do is find a sucker to pay top dollar for this steaming pile of dog shade. The problem is this is now such a huge flaming bag of dog shade that it needs billions of dollars merely to bail it out. The only people of that sort of fund are pension funds and they're not really in the business of buying 5% share in a giant steaming bag of dog shite for some $70 billion.
Enter the financial loophole. If he can get fast listing on the NASDAQ, then the pension funds will be automatically forced to buy his stock because they're legally required to do it before they realize that it's a giant steaming bag of dog shite. thing is the NASDAQ used to have rules that would prevent this sort of thing, like a seasoning period to prevent pension funds from immediately buying in and giving some $50 billion to a company that is billions of dollars in debt and burning money. There rules like you had to put at least 10% of your stock up for your company, you know, to make it harder for the stock to be artificially inflated by manipulating a tiny stock float. The tiny stock float also makes the stock much less stable. You know, just the sort of thing a pension fund is really after. And SpaceX has rules that prohibit you from suing them in public court. You know, typically if a company commits massive accounting fraud, you can sue them. SpaceX prohibits that. It explicitly prohibits classaction lawsuits and it forces mandatory arbitration which critically has to be done individually which is expensive and explicitly doesn't have public disclosure. Even if in arbitration you managed to get a really good deal, you know, because the company committed massive outright fraud, no one else would ever know about it because it would be strictly private. And because Musk has some 80% of the actual voting shares, he cannot be removed from the company. In effect, what is happening here is the pension funds are giving Musk some $50 billion for free with zero accountability. Not not even the promise of a roadster at some point in the next decade or maybe the decade after that.
No, I'm I'm very confident next decade.
Look, the entire launch market is tiny or optimistically some $10 billion with some half of that being the launching of Starlink satellites. That's roughly the same size as the world's potato chip market or Halloween industry. Hell, apparently there's even a joke on Wall Street that the vaping industry is bigger than the launch market. Hell, the launch market is not that much bigger than Only Fans. That means any money you're ever going to make out of the launch industry is going to be limited to that number. Even if it's 100% profit, which it won't be. Musk valuation for SpaceX alone is a trillion dollar.
a hund times the entire size of the global launch market because data centers in space and AI when for the cost of some $20 billion they built a data center on Earth that ended up having 11% usage. This is going to be the biggest rugpull in history. There's only one thing I like better.
other people's money.
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